Technically, the Yankees are starting a nine-game road trip today. The middle three games are against the Mets though, so the Yankees will be right back in New York following this three-game series in Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 10-6 against the Rays this season, including 4-2 at Tropicana Field.
What Have The Rays Done Lately?
The Rays dropped two of three to the Red Sox at home over the weekend — they had three hits and no runs in yesterday’s 13-inning loss — and they are currently 69-73 with a -13 run differential overall this season. Tampa is 13.5 games out of first place — they’re in third place and nine games behind the Yankees — and six games out of a wildcard spot. They haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet, but they’re out of it. FanGraphs has their postseason odds at under 1%.
Offense & Defense
Manager Kevin Cash’s offense is complicated. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the AL (546) yet have a team 99 wRC+. Runners in scoring position (91 wRC+) is an issue, especially when the bases are loaded. The Rays have a .275 OBP with the bases full in 2015. That’s crazy. Tampa’s only injured position players are OF Desmond Jennings (88 wRC+) and C Curt Casali (145 wRC+ in limited time). Both could return this series. Jennings has a knee problem, Casali’s out with a hamstring issue.
Cash still builds his lineup around 3B Evan Longoria (114 wRC+) and his declining power. UTIL Logan Forsythe (128 wRC+) has had a breakout season and others like SS Asdrubal Cabrera (104 wRC+), OF Steven Souza (100 wRC+), OF Kevin Kiermaier (98 wRC+), OF Brandon Guyer (118 wRC+ in limited time), and DH John Jaso (128 wRC+) have been strong complementary players. 1B James Loney (85 wRC+) usually kills the Yankees, though he’s have a poor year overall.
C Rene Rivera (33 wRC+) is catching regularly with Casali out, but he’s in there for his glove, not his bat. OF Joey Butler (103 wRC+), OF Daniel Nava (63 wRC+), OF Grady Sizemore (88 wRC+), and OF Mikie Mahtook (132 wRC+ in very limited time) are among the platoon outfielders at Cash’s disposal. C J.P. Arencibia, C Luke Maile, IF Nick Franklin, IF Tim Beckham, and IF Richie Shaffer are among the September call-ups. Since these two teams played a little over a week ago, I’m going to copy and paste the defense section from the last preview:
Overall, the Rays have a strong team defense with excellent defenders in center (Kiermaier), on the infield corners (Longoria and Loney), and behind the plate (Rivera). Asdrubal and Forsythe are serviceable on the middle infield and everyone in that outfield rotation other than Guyer is a weak spot. Back in the day the Rays would catch everything. It was annoying. Now? Not so much.
The only difference now is Souza, who recently returned from a wrist injury. He’s a good but not great defender who seems to have a knack for jumping and sliding catches. It’s weird. Souza will rob extra base hits at the wall and slide to rob bloopers. His routes are weird though.
Pitching Matchups
Monday (7pm ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. TB) vs. RHP Erasmo Ramirez (vs. NYY)
The Rays, who always seem to be loaded with young pitching, acquired the 25-year-old Ramirez at the end of Spring Training because they were short on starters. Injuries robbed them of depth. Ramirez has a 3.96 ERA (4.02 FIP) in 136.1 innings across 23 starts and seven relief appearances, though his last nine starts have been rough (4.64 ERA and 4.35 FIP). His strikeout (19.0%), walk (6.6%), grounder (47.9%), and homer (0.99 HR/9) rates are all in the neighborhood of average. Give or take a few percentage points in either direction. Righties (.343 wOBA) have hit Erasmo much harder than lefties (.256 wOBA) because he’s an upper-80s/low-90s fastball guy whose best pitch is a low-80s changeup that isn’t quite as effective against same-side hitters. Ramirez also throws a mid-80s slider and low-80s curveball that are show-me pitches more than anything. The changeup is his moneymaker. The Yankees have faced Ramirez four times this year, twice as a reliever (two runs in three total innings) and twice as a starter (one run in eleven total innings).
Tuesday (7pm ET): TBA vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi (vs. NYY)
Once again, it’s Odorizzi. He’s turning into the new version of David Price in that the Yankees see him every damn time they face the Rays. Anyway, Odorizzi has a 3.21 ERA (3.31 FIP) in 24 starts and 145.2 innings this year, and he pairs a very good strikeout rate (22.0%) with a very good walk rate (6.0%). His grounder (38.9%) and homer (0.60 HR/9) rates don’t seem to match up, but Odorizzi is a pop-up pitcher. That said, the Yankees took him deep three times last week. Righties (.311 wOBA) have had more success against him than lefties (.267 wOBA). Odorizzi, 25, lives and dies with his mid-80s splitter, which he learned from teammate Alex Cobb. It gave him the swing-and-miss pitch he needed to be something more than a back-end starter. He also throws low-90s four-seamers, mid-80s cutters, and a few slow upper-60s curveballs. The Yankees have seen Odorizzi three times this year: three runs in six innings in April, four runs in 6.1 innings later in April, and five runs in 6.2 innings last week. So maybe it’s just me that feels like the Yankees face Odorizzi every time they play Tampa.
Wednesday (7pm ET): TBA vs. RHP Chris Archer (vs. NYY)
Archer, 26, has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the game this year, putting up a 2.95 ERA (2.68 FIP) in 30 starts and 192.1 innings. Great strikeout rate (30.5%), great walk rate (6.6%), very good grounder rate (46.3%), very good homer rate (0.80 HR/9), no platoon split (.266 vs. 256 wOBA in favor of righties). Domination. Archer uses mid-90s two and four-seamers to set up his upper-80s slider, which is arguably the best slider in baseball. He also throws a handful of mid-80s changeups per start. The slider is what makes him an ace though. Archer has started three times against the Yankees this year. One went well (five runs in 6.1 innings last week), one went poorly (6.2 shutout innings in July), and one went okay (two runs in seven innings in May).
The Yankees have not officially announced their starters for Tuesday and Wednesday, though Joe Girardi said yesterday the plan was to start Adam Warren on Tuesday as long as they didn’t need him out of the bullpen in the series finale against the Blue Jays. So I guess it’ll be Warren tomorrow. Wednesday is Luis Severino’s day. They were probably waiting to see what happened with Warren before announcing anything beyond tonight’s game.
Bullpen Status
Thanks to yesterday’s 13-inning game, Cash needed to get seven innings from his bullpen, and he used all his key late-inning guys. RHP Brad Boxberger (3.21 ERA/3.91 FIP) is the closer and lately RHP Alex Colome (3.54/3.71) has been setting him up. RHP Steve Geltz (3.78/3.94) will also see some high-leverage work. The hard-throwing LHP Jake McGee is done for the season with a knee problem.
LHP Xavier Cedeno (2.16/3.34) is Cash’s primary left-on-left matchup guy. RHP Matt Andriese (4.45/4.29) and RHP Brandon Gomes (3.31/4.10) are the other regular bullpeners. RHP Andrew Bellatti, LHP C.J. Riefenhauser, LHP Enny Romero, and RHP Kirby Yates are the extra September arms. Geltz, Colome, Boxberger, Gomes, Romero, and Bellatti all pitched yesterday.
Head over to our Bullpen Workload page to check up on the status of Joe Girardi’s bullpen, which, despite running 13 pitchers deep, is somewhat taxed right now. Doubleheaders are dumb. Anyway. DRays Bay and The Process Report are the places to go for the latest on Tampa Bay.
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