Nov
19
Lincecum takes home his second Cy
ByTim Lincecum was named the NL Cy Young Award winner today, becoming the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cys since Randy Johnson won four in a row from ’99-’02. He narrowly beat out a pair of Cardinals for the award, as just ten points separated Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Carpenter. Wainwright, who finished third in the voting, actually received the most first place votes (12).
Lincecum is arbitration eligible as a Super Two this offseason, and he’s won the Cy in each of his two full seasons. Get ready for the greatest arbitration case in the history of the universe.
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Congratulations Tim Lincecum on your big 2nd Cy Young award, and probably even bigger payday it will bring you.
Indeed! Congrats to my favorite non-Yankee active player.
The right call IMO.
Although…something is a little off when the guy that finishes third is the guy that the most voters thought should win.
Wins FTW?
Over/under on Lincecum’s payday: $12.5 million
Over.
Way over. He’s got more Cy’s than Halladay, Sabathia, Zambrano, Peavy … pretty any pitcher out there making major bucks.
Howard got $10M in his first year of arbitration after an MVP and a ROY. Lincecum can file for $20M and no one would think he’s crazy.
But arbitration doesn’t look at pitchers making free agency dollars, it looks at pitchers who went to their first year of arbitration.
Right, they comp him to pitchers with similar sevice time. Who can they compare him to, Kazmir? Lester?
I’ll call under. Arbitration theoretically goes 40%/60%/80% of free agent value. Compare him to CC & Johan and you get around $9m for a ballpark for him.
Remember, Howard got $10m not because he was worth it, but because the Phillies submitted an offer that was too low.
I could see Lincecum beating Howard, but not by a ton.
I didn’t pick my words very well there, let me rephrase a little…
The 40%/60/%/80% is historical averages, not theoretical values.
And I expect Lincecum to beat Howard, as he has a great case to say he deserves the biggest arbitration award. But I don’t expect him to blow past Howard based on the reasons I said before.
Where can I find the vote breakdown? Anyone have a link?
http://www.bbwaa.com
Right here The BBWAA write up is so long on so many fronts. It leads with wins and notes that this is just the second time the winner didn’t receive the most first place votes.
Who would you rather have on your team…
Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke? What’s the order?
And how much better is Strasberg than these 3?
Felix.
And it’s not fair to Strasburg to compare him to the best young pitchers in the game.
Agreed.
Felix
(decent-sized gap)
Greinke
(small gap)
Lincecum
(gap larger than Esther Baxter’s breasts)
Strasburg
I pick Felix over the other two for strictly age and frame/mechanics/durability issues. All three have dynamite stuff, but Felix is younger and I like his pitcher’s build better.
Lincecum is nasty, but his small build and violent armwhip scare me.
…and the fact that Lincecum looks like a Lilith Fair participant doesn’t help either.
IETCSFM.
Felix. Strasburg’s nowhere close to those guys.
What about Yu Darvish? Aroldis Chapman? They’re not close to those guys…so who are these 3 comparable to? Joba/Hughes?
Felix, Lincecum, Greinke. Remember Felix hasn’t even pitched a day over the age of 23, and he’s already considered to be one of the absolute best pitchers in baseball, if not the best. Lincecum is amazing, but Felix has improved every year after entering the year as a capable 19 year old (!!!) starter in ’05. He has a nearly flawless delivery and has, at the ripe old age of 23, already logged 4 consecutive years of 30+ starts. When all is said and done, he’ll go down as one of the best starters ever, I think.
I’d probably go:
Felix
Grienke
Lincecum
Going with: Felix is the youngest & has pitched in the AL. Lincecum & Grienke are the same age so Grienke AL > NL, then Lincecum. But honestly can’t go wrong.
I would take Strasburg over none of these 3.
As much as Jesus Montero is better than Joe Mauer.
Felix
Lincecum
Greinke.
Fucking congrats to my favorite non-Yankee player. Lincecum is such a beast, he deserved that shit. 31 combined wins for the two Cy Young winners … I wonder how much of an all-time low that is? I read a Posnanski article last night about how that’s a clear indicator in a change in overall talent evaluation (and not just within the GM think tanks) and an appreciation for advanced statistics and I have to agree.
I wouldn’t say a move towards advanced statistics, but I’d definitely say a move towards statistics that more accurately portray a player’s value. ERA is a better indicators than pitcher wins, so it’s a start.
I love that the next 10 years will be something of a “who’s better?” competition between Felix and The Freak. All Star Game showdowns for years to come should be freaking awesome. I feel like we went from having 1 real ace in the game in Santana just a few years ago to having Lincecum, Felix, CC, Halladay, Greinke, Verlander, Wainwright, Carpenter, Beckett, Lester, and the potential of guys like Matusz, Tillman, Price, Joba, Porcello, and more. Good pitching is so much fun to watch.
Lincecum, Felix, CC, Halladay, Greinke, Verlander, Wainwright, Carpenter, Beckett, Lester
One of these things is not like the other, one of these things doesn’t belong (hint: it’s Beckett)
Oh I dunno. Beckett gets a lot of nagging injuries that keep him from reaching his potential, but when he’s on he really is fun to watch, provided it’s not against us. That 2-seamer is naaaassstyyy
Yeah he wasn’t on the level on anyone on that list.
That list needs some Josh Johnson. Hitting his age 26 season with filthy stuff.
I feel like we went from having 1 real ace in the game in Santana just a few years ago to having Lincecum, Felix, CC, Halladay, Greinke, Verlander, Wainwright, Carpenter, Beckett, Lester
CC, Halladay, Verlander, Carpenter, Beckett have all been around – and were pitching very well – a few years ago. I don’t really agree with your statement that Santana was the only ace.
I’m talking about ’04-’06. I’ll give you halladay, and I guess Clemens, but other than that, sure there were guys pitching well, but not ace-like. Look at how many guys posted sub-3.00 ERAs this year. That’s practically unheard of.
Greenies (and for the most part) PED’s out of the game was bound to lower ERA’s of starters. What were the ERA+’s of the top pitchers of that era? I haven’t looked, but hypotheically if a pitcher has an ERA of 4.50 against a league average of 6.00, he’s an ace, regardless of the ERA of 4.50 that doesn’t sound good. It’s all about relativity.
Greenies (and for the most part) PED’s out of the game was bound to lower ERA’s of starters.
Is it really? You’d have to assume pitchers were using and benefiting from them as well, no?
Yes they were, but the offensive benefits clearly outweighed the benefits to the pitchers (see 60+ HR seasons), on a grand scale. As far as greenies go, starting pitchers, who pitch every 5 days, wouldn’t need them like a position player playing 150 games a year would. At the end of the day, everyone used PED’s, but PED’s left their mark on the game offensively.
You’re forgetting that Carpenter’s peak was ’04-’06. Carpenter was better during the time period you’re saying he wasn’t an ace than the period you’re crediting him for.
Roy Oswalt was also insanely good during that time span.
That’s just what I thought of off the top of my head.
hmm. i guess i was wrong. It just feels like there has been a recent influx of super high-end pitching across baseball, and with no stop of the dominance looming. It might just be that it’s new to the AL. Remember, CMW came in 2nd for the AL cy young in ’06
Tim Lincecum winning over Wainright and Carpenter makes me happy for one main reason:
It pisses Skip Bayless off.
And that’s always a good thing.
i just came
When Skip Bayless loses, everyone wins!
Check out Ben Sheets 2004 numbers and then how many Cy Young votes he got that year.
http://www.baseball-reference......be01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference......html#NLcya
HE WAS 12 AND 14, HOW GOOD COULD HE HAVE BEEN!?!??!?
Sincerely,
The Ghost of Alex Gonzalez
You miss him, I know you do
As good as Sheets was, that award still should have gone to Randy
That has to be one of the dumbest Cy Young choices ever. Way dumber than Bartolo Colon over Santana/Mo.
not way dumber, but possibly dumber. What was way dumber than bartolo over santana was that in the same year, Carpenter won over Clemens, who put up an era of 1.87(!!!!!!) and and era+ of 226(!!!!!!!!!!!!).
Nah, I wouldn’t say it was dumber. In ’04 Clemens had a season that would be worthy of Cy Young consideration most years. That year happened to be a rather strong pitching year. Colon’s Cy season would only be worthy in an exceptionally weak pitching year, but, that year wasn’t that weak.
I’d also say Clemens not winning in ’05 was dumber than Clemens winning in ’04. I also would’ve given Pettitte the award before Carpenter in ’05. Which reminds me, Houston had a sick rotation in ’05. 3 pitchers with an ERA under 3 in over 220 IP.
I agree, but to get ONE 3rd place vote with that year…
Carl Pavano was three spots ahead of Sheets!
I think this is why Sheets motivation went down the tubes after the 2004 season.
I’ll bet Carpenter and Wainwright split some votes that could have impacted the end result.
Gonna spark one up and celebrate.
so the bbwaa got BOTH cy young awards right in the same year?? jesus, what is the world coming to?
It would be really tough to get the NL Cy Young award “wrong”…although mysteriously Javier Vazquez got 1 2nd place vote.
to be fair to him, he did post a 2.87 mark in 219.1 innings, w/ 238 Ks. That’s pretty comparable to Wainwright, especially considering he pitched in the NL’s only offensive powerhouse, the east. The mets sucked this year, sure, but the Phils and Marlins both have stronger offensive clubs than anyone in the NL Central and west not from St. Louis or L.A.
That came from Keith Law.
Anyone know Law’s (or Carroll’s) rationale for leaving Carpenter off the ballot?
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....NHeadlines
Klaw’s reason was the difference in IP.
Fantastic changeup of course. Check it out Eiland!!!!