Jul
08

Today’s Crazy Idea: Javy for Werth

By

Photo Credit: Matt Slocum, AP

The trade deadline really brings out the dumb in people. Stupid trade rumors come with the territory, and we’re certainly no exception. So you’re going to have to forgive me for a second while I throw something out there. Ready for this one? Javy Vazquez for Jayson Werth. Seriously, hear me out before you delete your RAB bookmark.

Buster Olney says that the Phillies are talking to a bunch of teams about possible matches for Werth, and are looking for what he calls “a proven starting pitcher who could be a No. 2 or No. 3 type of guy” in return. Well, Javy fits that bill. You can argue that he’s more of a number four based on his dreadful April, but I’m not going to waste my time with that. The guy’s got a 3.05 ERA (3.94 FIP) in his last ten starts, and the Yankees would have won more than six of those games if they bothered to score more than two runs in three of the four losses.

But there’s a fit here because each team has something the other team needs. The Phils need a starter, and the Yanks could use an extra bat. Furthermore, both players are free agents after the season and are projected to be Type-A free agents, so each team will still get their two extra picks in the epiphany draft of 2011. The money doesn’t match up perfectly – Javy is owed $5.54M the rest of the way, Werth $3.41M – but that’s something that could easily be worked out (I think).

What would the Yankees be getting in Werth? Basically a righthanded hitting version of Nick Swisher, that’s what. Werth’s triple-slash line sits at .279/.365/.518 (.378 wOBA), which is perfectly in line with his performance over the last two seasons. There’s no fluke, it’s an established level of performance. Werth has also shown that the friendly confines of Citizen’s Banks Park aren’t the cause for his success, he’s wOBA’d .389 and .374 on the road in the past two years. His three year UZR in right sits at +17.5, and he can even play center in a pinch, not that the Yankees would need him too. Want steals? You got them too. Werth has swiped 44 bags in 49 tries over the last three years (89.8%). The guy does pretty much everything.

The Yankees could use him in a four man outfield/designated hitter rotation with Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson and Swisher, adding some considerable length to their lineup while assuming avoiding the risk of taking on a huge contract. Well, that last part isn’t entirely true, because you’re giving up a quality innings eater, which is risky by default. The team would have to feel comfortable with someone like Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova or maybe even Dustin Moseley taking the ball every fifth day, which might not sound so appealing given the team’s shaky bullpen. They do have options however, so the answer to that final rotation just might be there.

Remember, Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn’t exactly distinguished himself as an astute general manager. He gave three year contracts to 30-something’s Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco, two year deals to Ross Gload, Danys frickin’ Baez, and 46-year-old Jamie Moyer, traded Cliff Lee for peanuts only to have interest in reacquiring him six months later, gave Ryan Howard that completely unnecessary extension, plus a whole bunch of other questionable moves. Amaro seems to be very much stuck in the early-00′s way of doing things; big names, big contracts, poorly thought out trades. A Werth-Javy swap is unlikely, but not completely insane. I think. Of course, Werth would have to lose the Baseball Jesus look if a trade did happen, which would be a shame.

In all seriousness, the Yanks can use the extra bat, and they do have four other quality starters in the rotation to rely on. They’d be robbing Peter to pay Paul, which is always sketchy when you’re talking about starting pitching. So what do you think, good idea? Bad idea?

Categories : Musings

124 Comments»

    • (dispassionately reads entire article, giving Axisa the benefit of the doubt since he’s clearly earned it)

      Yeah, still no. In full and dead seriousness, my crazy idea of claiming Dontrelle Willis off waivers and making him into a LOOGY is far less crazy than this idea.

      They’d be robbing Peter to pay Paul, which is always sketchy when you’re talking about starting pitching. So what do you think, good idea? Bad idea?

      You’re not robbing Peter to pay Paul; you’re robbing Peter, Andrew, James, John, Philip, Bartholomew, Matthew, Thomas, James, Thaddeus, Simon the Zealot, Judas Iscariot, Mary Madgalene, Herod, Pontius Pilate, and Jesus H. Montero himself to pay Paul.

      Whatever upgrade we gain by adding Werth and being able to bench one of the Gardner/Granderson/Thames combo currently starting every day as our LF/CF/DH is drastically outweighed by the downgrade from Vazquez to Nova/Mitre/McAllister/Sanchez/etc. every fifth day, to say nothing of the ticking timebomb that is Phil Hughes’ innings limits and probable September/October regression when he hits his wall.

      Pass. Unless you’re going to tell me that we can couple this deal with a Eric Wordekemper+Marcos Vechionacci for Cliff Lee trade, which we all know isn’t happening.

      • Chip says:

        Pass. Unless you’re going to tell me that we can couple this deal with a Eric Wordekemper+Marcos Vechionacci for Cliff Lee trade, which we all know isn’t happening.

        Good point, I hear the White Sox still employ one Kenny Williams, I bet he’d take that to get rid of Peavy :)

  1. RR says:

    OMG! Are Mike Axisa and I thinking alike? Scary…

    http://bit.ly/b5Ef5w

  2. Like you said…its robbing peter to pay paul.

    and with the ups and downs that AJ can go through…i don’t know if it would be worth it.

  3. Apollo22237 says:

    This honestly isn’t too bad. It would a lot better say if Gardner wasn’t doing too good and we could stick Werth in the corner spot. We don’t really need it right now, but at a different time or in a little different situation, it is not crazy at all.

  4. Chip says:

    It’s a good thought but here’s where my problem is,

    Starting pitching > Corner outfielders

    It might look good until one of the other four workhorses gets hurt and we’re looking at putting BOTH Mitre and Nova in the rotation. Now, if they did this to give a spot in the rotation to Joba, sign me up

  5. Sweet Dick Willie says:

    That’s a great plan, Axisa. That’s fuckin’ ingenious, if I understand it correctly. It’s a Swiss fuckin’ watch.

    Seriously, NO EFFING WAY!

    Javy >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Werth + Mitre, Nova, Moseley.

    • Chip says:

      Wow, it wasn’t that bad of an idea, chill dude

      • Sweet Dick Willie says:

        It’s a horrible idea.

        Never give up a piece you need for a piece you don’t need.

        • Chip says:

          They don’t really NEED a guy of Vasquez’s caliber to be their 5th starter and they also don’t NEED a guy of Werth’s skill set to take over Swish in right.

          I think it’s a question whether the dropoff from Vasquez to our 6th starter (Nova? McAllister? Moseley?) is more than the gain by having Werth’s bat and defense over our current ragtag group of DHs and Swisher’s defense. I agree that in the regular season, having Vasquez is more important but what about come October? Will it be more important to have Vasquez in the bullpen, or another big bat with great speed in the lineup?

          • Sweet Dick Willie says:

            They need Javy much more than they need Werth.

            They very much needed Javy when AJ decided to be bad AJ for a month. And they will very much need Javy should Andy or Phil hit a streak of ineffectiveness in the second half.

            And in the post season, Javy will be the 4th starter (due to Phil’s innings limits), as MLB re-configured the play-offs to virtually ensure that no team can get through it with only three starters.

            For these reasons, they need Javy much more than they need Werth.

  6. JobaWockeeZ says:

    If that happens the Yanks will need another starter for the playoffs because of Hughes’s limits. Unless they make a new plan to skip like every start in August or something I wouldn’t do it.

    Tough if they do get him they could always do for optimal defense. I’d be down with that.
    CF – Gardner
    LF – Swish
    RF – Werth
    DH – Granderson

    I’d actually like Werth but maybe not for Javy. The Phillies said they are open to selling so a package of anything but Montero +, I think I’d be fine with it as long as it’s reasonable.

    • kimonizer says:

      How is that optimal defense? Wouldn’t it be:

      LF: Gardner
      CF: Granderson
      RF: Werth
      DH: Swisher

      • JobaWockeeZ says:

        Granderson is a fine defender. No knock on him but he has been declining with his defense tough in 2010 it’s great but also in a short sample.

        I don’t know really, the rest are also good defenders too. Gardner we all know about his awesomeness and Werth too. I guess you can interchange Swish and Granderson, it won’t make a huge difference.

      • Marcos says:

        Gardy is a better CFer than Curtis. So optimum defense would probably be

        LF: Granderson
        CF: Gardner
        RF: Werth
        DH: Swish

    • Chip says:

      I think you’d have to switch Granderson and Swish if you wanted optimal defense but that’s somewhat of a moot point.

      I really don’t see the Phillies going for a trade that doesn’t help them right now. Right now they need another arm in that rotation more than anything and won’t be trading Werth for prospects. That being said, if they really think one of our 6th starters were better than one of their current starters, I think you make that move immediately. Cash would really have to rob them on that one though, something like Mitre (as PTBNL since he’s on the DL), Nova and McAllister for Werth. Give them a bunch of junk they can throw up against the wall to see what sticks.

      But if we could keep BOTH Vasquez and Werth and then offer them arbitration? Wow, that’s a lot of picks the Yankees could throw some money at even if they did sign Lee

      • JobaWockeeZ says:

        I really don’t see the Phillies going for a trade that doesn’t help them right now. Right now they need another arm in that rotation more than anything and won’t be trading Werth for prospects.

        Their playing injured baseball too. Not 2009 Mets-esque or 2010 Red Sox-esque but it’s not good for them. Their GM has said he’ll sell his pieces if he has to if they fall of contention earlier than they hoped. With Werth being a free agent they are pretty open about trading for him. Their payroll has increased a lot so it’ll be tough to sign him. Getting almost MLB ready prospects could net you a Lee if they are down.

        • Chip says:

          I definitely agree that they’ll sell off Werth if they’re out of it for prospects but how far out do they need to be? I mean, it’s going to be tough for them to keep this up when Howard’s contract becomes an albatross, Halladay…ok he’s not slowing down anytime soon, Utley is having injury problems, they have no starters outside of Hamels and Halladay, Werth is probably gone at the end of the year, ect. They might think that this is one of their last chances to go all the way with this generation of players and push all in.

          At what point to they consider themselves out of it? Right now they’re only 3 games out and you have to think the Mets are going to turn into a pumpkin at some point.

  7. lardin says:

    If the Yankees were to make this deal, Vasquez for Werth and thats a big if. Would they the go get Cliff Lee?

    The other part of this is if the Yankees were to pull off the deals for Werth and Lee, they would not give up the draft picks to sign them it otherwise would cost in the off Season.

    I like the idea of Vasquez for Werth AND acquiring Lee, but it all depends on what the Asking price for Lee is. If its prohibitive, just keep Javy. The Yankees can win with the team they have now..

  8. 28 this year says:

    I like the idea. Offering arb to Javy is risky but Werth would never accept. Also, the bat could really lengthen the lineup. However, I agree that losing a starter would be tough. Our rotation has been a rock all year and adding rookies could hurt us with our bullpen. Werth would make us a stronger team going into the playoffs and get our bullpen more innings to fix itself in time for the playoffs. We have four starters and I think Hughes will turn it around. I think the main thing is, how much faith do we have in Hughes? If he could be a semblence of what he was early in the year, than the trade would be good. If what we see now is what he is for the rest of the year, then the trade would be bad.

  9. Kiersten says:

    The team would have to feel comfortable with someone like Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova or maybe even Dustin Moseley taking the ball every fifth day.

    pass.

  10. Angelo says:

    Starting pitching is invaluable, so that’s okay. I’d pass on it, but he would be great addition of course. And there is a better chance of the Yankees offering Werth arbitration, since he gets paid less, and would be a valuable piece.

    I don’t think he would accept, but the Yankees would be sure to get at least one talented player in next year’s draft.

    Still wouldn’t do it, but it’s not the worst idea in the world.

  11. B-Rando says:

    The trade definitely makes “sense” from a far back perspective. A lot of things line up. However, the Yankees offense is starting to come around again. We’ve scored the 2nd most runs in the AL thus far, so while another bat is certainly always welcome…it is by no means necessary. If Javy keeps pitching like he has been, the Yankees have a very good shot to win every game they play with the 5 starters they throw out there. I just don’t feel like giving up a quality starting pitcher is worth the extra bat, especially when we’re in no crisis on the offensive side of things.

  12. Jeana says:

    NO, No, No, No….and furthermore, NO.

    You are right it would be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Our bullpen is in shambels. Who is gonna pick up Javy’s responsibility? Trading Vazquez for another bat is suicide and a stupid move. Pitching wins or loses ballgames….that said, I don’t need to say anymore.

  13. nolan says:

    I think this would work ONLY if you could then move granderson for players that would help us get cliff lee. Getting Lee to replace Javy is the only way this makes sense as we all know pitching wins and without Javy we have…CC and Pettitte. That’s really all we can rely on at this point. If you can move Granderson for someone that Seattle wants… great. Otherwise forget it.

    • nsalem says:

      true

    • Sweet Dick Willie says:

      I think this would work ONLY if you could then move granderson for players that would help us get cliff lee

      A. There isn’t a team in MLB whose rotation wouldn’t be improved by the addition of Cliff Lee.

      B. Given “A” above, why would a team give up prospects that they could use to get Cliff Lee for Curtis Granderson?

  14. Daniel says:

    serious question….What about Joba for werth….

    I do not approve, but given the circumstance and ridiculousness of this idea…why not joba

  15. leon says:

    check out this video which was featured on si.com

    kid going crazy after yankee win @ari, classic!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-92KLYtLuk

  16. It’s not often I say this, but I think RAB is WAY OFF here. Pitching wins championships, not outfield depth. I am a huge Werth fan and would love to have him. However, when it comes to the rotation, we’re getting results right now. CC is a safe bet for continued excellent performance. AJ is streaky. Hughes will have inning limits. Andy has been great but has been known to have health issues. I think Javy is becoming an increasingly important stabalizing force. He allows other pitchers to slump or face challenges that they otherwise would not be able to handle. I don’t like the idea of putting some guy in the 5th spot of the rotation and thinking in my head, “they’ve pretty much wrote this one off (ex Mitre).”

  17. I like Werth, but I really don’t like the idea of Mitre/whomever in the number five spot or the cost of getting another fifth starter.

  18. Mister Delaware says:

    Pass. I can only imagine the panic (coming from me) if we moved Javy and one of the other 4 starters went down in August. I’d probably puke.

  19. I eagerly anticipate Tomorrow’s Crazy Idea.

    I’m hoping for either the “Top Hat” or the “Junk Shot”.

  20. nsalem says:

    do we get Mrs. Utely in this trade also

  21. Tom Zig says:

    It’ll be a 3 way!

    Yanks get
    Lee
    Werth

    Mariners get:
    Wordekemper

    Phillies get:
    Fortenberry

  22. Johnny O says:

    Mike – That article sounded like one of two things:
    1. the articles you guys pump out on April 1st as a joke
    or
    2. something hank steinbrenner convinced joel sherman to write

  23. Steve H says:

    In a vaccuum Werth>>Javy, but as stated above, giving up starting pitching depth to address OF depth, which is already a strength, wouldn’t be worth it.

  24. Yarden says:

    What about keeping Vazquez and picking up Jermaine Dye or trading for Pat Burrell?

  25. Tom Zig says:

    How about we trade for Hairston²? I know the Padres are contending at the moment, but I’m hoping they fall apart soon.

  26. Jose the Satirist says:

    I’ve bookmarked this article as “The Onion – Yankee Trade Edition”.

  27. nolan says:

    What could we get for Curtis Granderson right now? I know us yankee fans don’t value him to highly at the moment…but anyone have any idea how other teams may value him? Could we get a good prospect back for him?

    • rbizzler says:

      I think it is just you that doesn’t value him highly. A lot of Yankee fans aren’t ready to panic and trade a guy after less than half a season of mediocre production.

  28. dan genovese says:

    then we trade for lee…………..i like that plan

    • Steve H says:

      This post is now officially insane.

      • ROBTEN says:

        …as if the Mariners wouldn’t immediately realize how much they could demand from the Yankees for Lee if it even seemed for a second like the Yanks were desperate for starting pitching.

        I like how many people think baseball is run like The Show (non-White Sox division, of course).

  29. Captain Jack says:

    I’ll read the rest of the comments later, but this is one of those “Crazy Ass Trades Too Good To Happen.” It makes sense for both teams…it gives the Yankees a bat that just MASHES left handed pitching and it allows them to trade for Cliff Lee, and keep their draft pick. The value of a draft pick in a stacked draft to the Yankees is probably higher than it is to other teams seeing as how they are more than willing to spend whatever resources it takes to break a strong commitment to a school. There’s too many big pieces for this trade to work out, and the Phillies probably aren’t interested in Javier Vazquez…especially at the cost of Werth, but it’s still fun to talk about.

    • It makes sense for both teams…

      No, it doesn’t. Because:

      it allows [the Yankees] to trade for Cliff Lee

      Trading for Cliff Lee doesn’t make sense for the Yankees.

      • Captain Jack says:

        Trading for Cliff Lee doesn’t make sense because they have five solid starters, neither of which they can easily justify bumping out of the rotation. If they didn’t have Vazquez, that changes. They haven’t traded for the big starter on the market in recent times, but in recent times it just didn’t make sense…other teams were asking for too much or the Yankees weren’t in position to make the trade. They also haven’t offered Arb to type A FAs in the past…does that mean they won’t offer Javy arb?

        I realize that if they trade a handsome bounty for Lee the farm gets a bit worse, but in this fantasy scenario (which is what it is…no one thinks this trade will happen) they get their draft pick next year plus the comp picks from Werth…effectively allowing them to flex their financial muscle and restock the farm.

        • Johnny O says:

          Or the Yankees could try and win the World Series this year with a better pitching staff than the one that won it last year, and sign Lee in the off season while keeping all of their top prospects.

          As everyone said, Vasquez/Gardner is better than Werth/Mitre. Especially when Hughes’ innings limit will become a factor sooner than later.

        • Austin Romine >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Two draft picks, even in a stocked draft.

          Keeping the prospects required to get Cliff Lee >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Any marginal upgrades acquired by swapping Vazquez for Lee, even if that upgrade also involves upgrading the DH/OF with Jayson Werth

          • Captain Jack says:

            Yeah, I like Romine quite a bit too…as far as I’m concerned him and Montero are the only “off limits” guys in a Lee trade.

            The second one…I’m not completely sure of. We all thought keeping Joba out of any Halladay deal was a no-brainer, now…not so much. The Brein Taylors, Clint Hartungs, and Tod Van Poppels are a lot more common than the David Prices of baseball. Flags Fly Forever, the core of the team is getting old, when the core players of the team like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada are as old as they are I feel that they need to maximize their winning potential right now. While that doesn’t mean that they should go crazy and deal guys that are close to the majors and look like they could be impact players like Montero and Romine, everyone else can be talked about…especially if they’re getting two first round picks (and a comp pick) in a stacked draft.

            I think people here overestimate Yankee prospects.

    • Sweet Dick Willie says:

      It makes sense for both teams

      Well, it makes sense for the Phillies, so you’re half right.

      • Captain Jack says:

        I find it hilarious that there’s people who think the Phillies are getting the better player. I love Javy, but still…

        • Sweet Dick Willie says:

          I’m not necessarily saying Javy is the better player, but that trade would make the Phillies better (and the Yankees worse).

        • Yarden says:

          The Yankees might be getting the better player considering Javy’s inconsistencies in the 2nd half, but do you really think Jayson Werth is going to be happy DH’ing? He’s not really an upgrade in the field over Swisher, and certainly not over Gardner/ Granderson, either.

  30. CS Yankee says:

    Good to see Javy getting some respect.

    I say no as well since the Phillies would look sronger come postseason as the only got one stud that could be used three times in the WS, with a solid Javy that could swing it the other way.

    We have 5 healthy starters with at least two of them with some health risk versus having a stud DH that would only be used in 3-4 WS games. Let the Phillies die a slow death over the next few weeks along with the Red Sox so we don’t have to worry about them come postseason.

    How about getting Dunn for Thames, CHoP, Chad, and cash considerations (if your gonna dream, dream big)

  31. Mike HC says:

    For the playoffs, I love that deal. We can go with a three man rotation like last year, or let Hughes be the 4th, meaning there is basically no drop off if we get rid of Javy. It gives us an OF/DH rotation of Grit, Grand, Swish and Werth. Thats sick.

    But I’m not so sure about the regular season. Our lead is not that large, and the dropoff between Javy and the next guy is huge. Plus, it would put an even larger importance on Hughes, who we are supposedly trying to keep his usage down. And for regular season purposes, the upgrade of werth as a hitter, is not that much larger than Thames and Miranda.

    So. I guess, overall, great for the post season and risky for the regular season.

  32. Joe says:

    Terrible idea. After all the years of hunting for a good rotation its not the time to trade it away now. We don’t have the pitching depth to do that. Pitching wins championships not a 4th outfielder.

  33. Mike HC says:

    Loved the opening paragraph to the article by the way.

    Still could not stop the criticism though, ha.

  34. JobaJr says:

    I’ll shit bricks if this happens.

  35. Philthy65 says:

    why not build a deal around joba instead of javy and pack on the picks with werth and javy?

  36. The only member of the 2010 Yankee rotation I’d trade for Werth isn’t named Javy Vazquez.

    His name rhymes with “Schmallen Schmames Schmurnett.”

    • Sweet Dick Willie says:

      I hope you’re kidding.

      As inconsistent as AJ has been this year, he is much more integral to the success of the 2010 Yankees than Werth.

      I’m not saying Werth isn’t a good player, he obviously is. He’s just unnecessary for the Yankees success this year, whereas AJ isn’t.

      If AJ is June AJ for the rest of the season, it will be difficult for the Yanks to win. If, however, he can just be AJ (good AJ 2/3, bad AJ 1/3), I think the Yanks will be in fine shape.

      • Don’t misunderstand me: I have no inclination whatsoever to trade any of the 5 members of our starting rotation for Werth (or anyone else, for that matter). I want all the current members of the rotation to remain exactly where they’re at now.

        However, if I was Brian Cashman and Crazy Ol’ Big Stein arose from the near-dead and demanded that I trade one of our starters for Werth, I’m trading Burnett and keeping Vazquez every day of the week and twice on doubleheaders. Yes, I think on the balance, he’s a better SP than Jazzy. Doesn’t matter.

        If I have to move one of my starters, I’m moving the one who:

        A.) Isn’t an ace
        B.) Isn’t an ace but is making ace money
        C.) Isn’t an ace but is making ace money for the next three and a half years
        D.) Isn’t an ace but is making ace money for the next three and a half years, all of which are on the wrong side of 33

        A.J Burnett has a career ERA+ of 108 (good but not #1 good), has an ERA+ of 101 over the past two and a half years, and he’s going to get paid 16.5M for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons. He’s never shown any modicums of consistency or pitchability that would lend you to believe he’d get better as he ages.

        I’d much rather dump his potential contractual albatross if I’m making a hole in my 2010 rotation.

    • Pete says:

      nah. AJ can dominate any team in the game. I wouldn’t feel confident saying that about any of our other starters other than CC

  37. yankees1717 says:

    seriously, i like joba and some b prospects for werth. imagine this lineup
    jeter ss
    swisher dh
    tex 1b
    arod 3b
    cano 2b
    werth rf
    posada c
    granderson cf
    gardner lf
    that is totally dirty. but giving up javy would really suck. so, i say no to the javy for werth deal, but it’s an interesting idea, if not one that makes total sense. it might make sense if there was another SP we could get REALLY cheap, but i really don’t want to go to nova/moseley/mcallister etc

  38. claybeez says:

    I’d be all for this if:

    - the Yanks deal Granderson for another #3 type AL starter
    - the Yanks deal 2nd tier prospects for another #3 type AL starter

    With Hughes struggling somewhat right now, quality depth is important.

  39. theyankeewarrior says:

    Ok, it’s a bad trade because starting pitching >>>>>> outfield/DH depth. BUT, assuming Phil Hughes is our 4th starter for the playoffs, and Javy is cast-off to middle reliever land, the trade makes more sense.

    Then the trade becomes middle reliever who might pitch one or two innings per series for starting middle-of-the-order bat who will get 4+ plate appearances per game. I still wouldn’t do it…

    But now does the trade make more sense?

    /just sayin’

    The only problem is we have to make the playoffs first. But if Cashman thinks the Yanks can get there with Nova/Mcallister/Gaudin etc., then I think the trade could pay off.

    • Pete says:

      That’s a hefty assumption to make. Hughes has innings limits AND has the stuff to succeed at an elite level in the bullpen. Javy is not going anywhere near middle-reliever land.

  40. jsbrendog (returns) says:

    Your trade proposal sucks

    As fans, we love to come up with trade proposals to help our team. That’s great, but 99.999999999% of the time, the trade proposed is unrealistic. This might be for a number of reasons, both obvious and non-obvious. Fans overvaluing their team’s prospects is the main reason for ridiculous trade proposals, but there are plenty of others.

    Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star tackled this subject a few months ago. He shows us, through first-hand experience, why a trade proposal from an outsider rarely makes sense.

    Once, in a casual conversation a few years ago, a member of the Royals’ front office gave me a homework assignment. He wanted me to come to him with a doable trade idea that would make the Royals better.

    “And realistic,” he said. “Don’t have us trading Jimmy Gobble for Albert Pujols.”

    The next few days or so, I wore out Baseball-Reference and Baseball Cube and all the other nerdy sites even more than usual. I came up with something, I can’t remember exactly what, but I vaguely recall suggesting either DeJesus or Teahen to the Cubs for a deal involving Ryan Theriot and other parts.

    The Royals’ executive considered it for a few seconds, acknowledged that it made sense in the obvious ways I pointed out, then listed two or three reasons it didn’t make sense, reasons that I hadn’t considered and most likely never would’ve known without that conversation.

  41. Poppycock says:

    i have to believe this one’s a cheap traffic-generating ploy…

  42. Peepee Hands says:

    As much as I love eorth, and as much as I hate to say it, we need Javy more than we need Werth.

  43. Pete says:

    It makes enough sense to consider, but not to realize. Sure, the other four starters ought to be able to hold the rotation up, but on the same token, the rest of the lineup ought to be able to withstand the lack of an impact DH.

    The offense went through a prolonged slump in June, and until VERY recently, Alex and Teix were not anything close to themselves. On paper, however, our offense still has 8 hitters who either have established track records of excellence or are having great seasons. Adding Werth to play RF (moving Swish to DH) would obviously improve the offense, but I expect the offense to improve anyway based on first half underperformances.

    What I don’t expect to improve, however, is the rotation. I’m not expecting a big dropoff, but I think we can probably expect Hughes to continue at a ~4.50 ERA pace, rather than his early sub-2.00 pace, Pettitte’s due for a little regression, and AJ is AJ. Having Javy as 2004-2006 Mussina-esque stabilizer is invaluable to a rotation that can only expect elite performance from one of its 5 starters going forward. If the yankees had two or three elite starters, then 4 starters plus Sergio/Zach/Nova/etc. would be fine, but they don’t. Their success in the second half will, I believe, depend greatly on their rotation as it is currently set up – one ace and four middle of the rotation guys.

  44. The post was perfect! It lived up to its headline: “crazy idea”

    The trade makes zero sense.

    • Pete says:

      I wouldn’t say it makes zero sense. I would say it makes 42% sense, which is not enough sense to make it.

  45. jake says:

    It’s not so much an “insane” idea as it is “senseless.”

    The Yankees could use another bat, but not another outfielder. They could use a guy who could sub for A-Rod at 3B who can hit, which is something they don’t currently have.
    Werth is a good player, and all, but Javy is a good pitcher, and he’d have to be replaced if he were traded away. Sergio Mitre might be decent as a middle reliever, but he’s a completely unproven starter, and he isn’t even healthy right now.

    It’d be a great deal for the Phillies, though.

  46. Klemy says:

    I really dislike weakening the rotation to build the bench/DH spot. I like Werth, but not enough to take one of our 5 starters away. If you can get him for something in the farm that’s not Tier 1, fine – I might be more open, but that’s not going to happen.

    I’d rather go with what we have this year and make a FA play on Werth if Lee falls through.

    • SteveD says:

      If the Yanks can somehow swing a deal for Cliff Lee then I would be good with the werth for vasquez deal. Now that would be sweet.

    • Mr. Sparkle says:

      If the Yankees are going to push hard for a free agent outfielder this offseason, it’s going to be for Carl Crawford. In fact, I’d be surprised if Crawford wasn’t the top target overall for the Yanks this offseason. Especially if Granderson continues to be the colossal flop he’s been.

  47. yankthemike says:

    lets face it– the only reason any Yankee fan would be thinking along these lines is the failure ( so far) of Granderson to add much of anything to this team. I realize that few could have foreseen how well Gardner was going to be this year. I’d love a deal to get Werth if there was a team we could unload Granderson on.

  48. Yarden says:

    If LeBron stays in Cleveland: 3-team deal – Granderson back to Detroit, Miguel Cabrera to Cleveland, LeBron to the Knicks

  49. Mr. Sparkle says:

    I’d do it with one exception…the Yankees would have to remove the innings limit from Phil Hughes. Otherwise, come late August, you’ve lost two starting pitchers, plus Burnett will still be in the rotation. That leaves you with two starters, a head case and most likely two journeymen.

    Maybe the Yankees would make a move like this with an eye toward acquiring another arm. Lee (probably not), Oswalt or my personal sleeper pick, Ted Lilly. Yeah, I’ve heard very low rumblings about that move and the Cubs by now must know they’re going nowhere. I don’t know what they want though.

    If they could deal for another arm I would love to get Werth. Face it guys, I think we’ve seen what Granderson is going to offer. I know he’s missed some time, but he hasn’t shown much power and hasn’t been a spark plug on the bases…mostly because he can’t get on base in the first place. I’d certainly be a lot happier with Werth in the lineup regularly. Oh, and has anyone else noticed the Yankees offense has been flat for about a month now? Look up and down that lineup. No more injuries to blame anymore. Werth would look really nice in the middle and they need the help.

Leave a Reply

You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

If this is your first time commenting on River Ave. Blues, please review the RAB Commenter Guidelines. Login for commenting features. Register for RAB.