Dec
04

Red Sox on the verge of acquiring Adrian Gonzalez

By

Update (11:10am ET): The Padres will be receiving Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a player to be named later in the trade. They were ranked the first, third, and sixth best prospects in Boston’s farm system a few weeks ago.

According to various reports out there, the Red Sox are on the verge of acquiring Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres for a package of prospects, including Casey Kelly. The players are apparently agreed to and MLB has approved a window for Boston to negotiate an extension with the first baseman, but Gonzalez must still take his physical, not a sure thing after having shoulder surgery last month.

Just look at how much the failure to sign Mark Teixeira has impacted the Sox. They had to trade three young players to the Indians for Victor Martinez in 2009 to make up for the lost offense, and now they have to deal even more young players to San Diego to fill the first base hole long-term. And they’re still going have to pay Gonzalez a boatload of money as if he was a free agent. Kinda sucks for them.

Categories : Asides
  • Jorge

    “I never really thought much of Casey Kelly.” – Peter Gammons, 12/4/10

    • http://www.retire21.org Mike R.- Retire 21

      I was going to comment something along this same exact line. Well played.

    • Accent Shallow

      That makes two of us, Peter.

    • Dustin

      Great trade by Sox in giving up any MLB talent, especially Buchholz.

      Yankees will now go on a crazy spending spree to try to offset this. Cashman on tilt now.

      • http://twitter.com/biebrichbeats ClayBuchholzLovesLaptops

        Yankees will now go on a crazy spending spree to try to offset this.

        Link?

        • ROBTEN

          Source: The Internet

        • Poopy Pants

          Technically, giving Jeter and Lee that much money could be called ‘a crazy spending spree’.

  • YankeesJunkie

    Sort of surprised that Red Sox did not have to give up Buccholz or Lowrie in the deal, but their minor league depth is going to take a hit with Kelly and a few other top prospects.

  • icebird753

    Fuck. I thought I would beat you guys to the punch…

  • All Star Carl

    Thank god we don’t have to face the white Satchel Paige.

  • Teh Comp Pick

    Casey Kelley doesnt have an ERA below 5 above high A ball, honestly can’t understand all the absurd hype. They better be giving up a lot more.

    • Total Dominication

      That’s a little short-sighted. He was moved up a little too soon and struggled. 20 yr olds in AA do that. I mean, he is verrry young with great stuff. He’s being waay overhyped by Sox fans, but you seem to be underrating him.

      • Sweet Dick Willie

        Check out Mr. Hughes age 20 stats in AA:

        http://www.baseball-reference......ghes001phi

        • Total Dominication

          Yeah, and he was the best pitching prospects in the minors because of it. Doesn’t mean that is nessesary to do to have ace-potential.

      • Shaun

        Hasn’t Banuelos done pretty well in his AA since moving up mid-season and he’s only 19?

  • http://fmylife.com Bryan L

    WE DOOOOOMED!!!!111

    Even though the Sox did give up Kelly + Rizzo and others, they’re just lucky it wasn’t more. If San Diego waits until the Deadline, I have a feeling they get a much better haul from a contender.

    • http://fmylife.com Bryan L

      BTW, I can’t wait for all the “GET CRAWFORD” posts.

    • YankeesJunkie

      We don’t know what the Red Sox gave up quite yet, but I bet the Sox had to have a pretty good offer to take A-Gon away from the deadline frenzy possibility.

  • Teh Comp Pick

    I hope Henry tries to get cute like he did with Tex, and they are unable to get a deal done.

    • The Big City of Dreams

      and then he comes to the Yankees even though we don’t have a spot for him

  • mason.flint

    who’s the major league ready player in that deal? Rizzo maybe. this deal makes a lot more sense for SD if they get a couple of high ceiling prospects thrown in (iglesias and ranuado?).

    • Gonzo

      Renaudo can’t be dealt. Not even as a PTBNL.

  • FIPster Doofus

    God dammit.

  • Joe R

    They’ll also lose a top draft pick for signing a Type A that we know they will. So another little blow to their farm system.

    • Joe R

      Nvm. Forgot about them losing Beltre. Nothing to see here. Move along.

      • The Three Amigos

        Yea, and V-Mart. I think they are fine trading away prospects for a superstar, plus they will have 4 or 5 top picks this year.

  • YankeesJunkie

    Now it will be interesting to see what Gonzalez gets from the Red Sox. I would not be surprised to see him get a five or six year extension at 22.5 million a year like Mark, but I think it might end up being closer to 20 million a year since he is not on the open market.

  • steve (different one)

    How do you sell this to your fans if you are SD? Would this be possible if they had won one more game and made the playoffs?

    If SD gets revenue sharing money, they should have it cut.

    Great bat for Boston, but I don’t like the idea of forcing Youkilis to 3B for the next few years.

    • YankeesJunkie

      If I was San Diego fan I would be pissed because they would not be making an effort for 2011, but hope that the players pan out in the trade and give the Pads a better shot down the road.

      • bonestock94

        This, I guess they don’t think last year’s run is repeatable. Then again the haul today is probably much better than it would’ve been at the deadline…when theres a much better indication that you’re a contender or not.

    • http://pda.88000.org/wallpapers/48/Pikachu_Dressed_as_Hitler.jpg Do Not Feed The Trolls!

      Especially considering it that he only makes 5.5mm next year. I dont know why they are not going for another run next year. Surely you can get an equal or better package at the trade deadline for AGonz.

      • YankeesJunkie

        That is arguable just because he would be playing so much less time for the team he was traded too and there probably would be no time for negotiations. Also you are taking a risk that if A-Gon gets injured and what if no one comes up with a deal before the deadline then you are screw. The Padres are doing what is best for the next five years not the next five months.

  • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

    So after all of these years, it looks like the Redsox will finally get Adrian Gonzalez. As long as they’re paying a ton to acquire him, I’m happy.

  • Simon B.

    Man…

    Gonzalez is a significantly better player than Tex and he’s signed crazy cheap the next two years.

    Please give up a lot more than Casey Kelly.

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      How is he “significantly better” than Teixeira?

      • Simon B.

        I would suggest you go to either baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com and take a look. They are lovely sites.

        • bonestock94

          I looked, WAR and wRC+ doesn’t favor AGon really.

        • FIPster Doofus

          Yeah, they are … and they don’t indicate that Gonzalez is “significantly” better than Teixeira.

        • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

          I’m not an idiot. I visit those sites regularly, so your point is?

          There is nothing that indicates A-Gon is better than Tex, besides this past season. Tex obviously didn’t have a great year.

          Also, saying someone is “better” and saying someone is “significantly better” are two different things.

          • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

            If Adrian was traded to the Yankees, you know people would only point out his sub-.800 OPS vs LHP during his career.

            Maybe you can factor in the ballparks and say Adrian is better, but significantly better is a stretch.

            • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

              Yeah, even then no one can be certain that Adrian is better.

            • HeavyHitter

              No it’s not. Gonzo is significantly better. You are severely underestimating the influence of park effects. Look at Gonzo’s career road performance and then tell me he isn’t significantly better than Tex.

              • HeavyHitter

                Mattingly calls Gonzo the best defensive first baseman in baseball.

      • The Three Amigos

        And he is only signed “cheap” 2011. After that he will be looking at a 7/8 year extension for over 20 mil a year.

    • http://fmylife.com Bryan L

      Gonzalez is not “significantly better” than Mark Teixeira. Over the past three seasons, Gonzalez had been worth 15.6 wins. Teixeira has been worth 16.2.

      Enough said.

      • HeavyHitter

        Au contraire. What would Tex have done in Petco?

  • http://pda.88000.org/wallpapers/48/Pikachu_Dressed_as_Hitler.jpg Do Not Feed The Trolls!

    That package seems underwhelming to me

    *shrugs*

    • bonestock94

      Olney says theres also a major league ready player in there. Maybe someone like Lars Anderson or Kalish in addition to Kelly + Rizzo.

    • Steve in PDX

      Hoping because Hoyer knows the system he picked his favorite prospects…

  • YankeesJunkie

    Does anyone know the complete package outside of Kelly. Considering there are no MLB ready prospects this seems like 5 for 1 or a 5 for 2 deal and the Red Sox get some other reliever.

  • Jerome S

    WOW all this for only a year?

    Is Theo on crack? can’t he accept just one non-contending year?

    I wish A-Gon the best… I hope he lives up to the heavy title of “first overall pick”.

    • YankeesJunkie

      Deal is contingent on an extension which the Red Sox have been given time for. No extension, no deal.

      • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

        I sense he will accept, but he does want Teixeira money, which I do not think Boston will give. Maybe, they’ll try a team friendly low ball offer like the one given to Lester, Pedroia, Youk, Beckett, etc.

  • kosmo

    Acquiring Anderson and Rizzo doesn´t make alot of sense seeing that they both play 1b.So far it´s Kelly ,Rizzo and Kalish…

  • YankeesJunkie

    Quote of the morning so far from SOSH

    “The problem about speculating prospects is that the system is so deep. You could seriously craft a hundred different roughly-equivalent packages.

    Because Hoyer and Theo appear to value players so similarly, it will be fascinating to see which names were agreed upon.”

    • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

      “Anything the Red Sox do is good for the team. Farm system has a bad year? No problem, Theo expected this and that’s why we have such a deep system. Trade all our worthwhile prospects for a superstar who would be a FA next year? GENIUS! This is why they didn’t really want Teixeira after all. Played the Yankees like fools and everything. Now the Yankees are going to be forced to give Cliff Lee $27M a year. Theo’s master plan is finally hatching, and its beautiful to see. Best GM in baseball history, bar none.”

      I might be exaggerating, but really only a little. There’s a reason no one takes that place at all seriously.

      • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

        Did a commenter right that or did a site author?

        • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

          Wow, “write.”

          Comment editor, we hardly knew ye.

        • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

          I’m paraphrasing the general tone of the site. It’s not much of a step above NYYFans. What makes it worse is that you have to be ‘voted in’ to post on the ‘big boys’ board. So it’s really just an echo chamber where basically if you don’t consider the Red Sox to be the best-run team in baseball, you get shouted down and possibly your ‘membership’ revoked for being ‘unreasonable’.

          • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

            Ah, got it.

  • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

    At the Winter Meetings

    Theo: I saw your Rivera, Brian, and raised you Gonzalez.
    Cash (getting off phone): What’s that? I was too busy signing Cliff Lee. Where were we?

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      Boras: Theo, you still have interest in Beltre, right? Right???? Right?????

  • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

    Well at least he kinda struggled v LHP in his career and we’ll have 3 lefty starters.

  • Jeff

    WOW! This is a huge steal for the Sox. If they go out and get Crawford too, we will be in deep trouble.

    • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

      Not really.

      • Jeff

        How can you say it’s not? We struggled this past season with our current lineup and we’ve not picked anyone up yet. The Sox did fairly well considering the injuries they had and now they’ve added Gonzalez and could possibly get Crawford.

        I’m a Yankee fan through and through but a realist. I can tell you right now the Yankees are getting older and need young talent to take them into the next 2-5 years.

        • FIPster Doofus

          The Yankees had the best offense in baseball last season.

        • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

          Changing nothing from the Yankee lineup, they still have comparable or better offense at CF, RF, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, and C. The bullpens are about the same and if the Yankees sign Lee, their rotation will be better than the Red Sox’s.

          • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

            That’s really, really generous to the Red Sox’s bullpen, which was pretty bad last year.

            • J-Lew

              Remember Papelbon’s year last year? Hilarious. Bard can’t pitch the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th.

      • Poopy Pants

        Ignorant.

        • BigDavey88

          Annoying.

    • All Star Carl

      I doubt they want 5 lefties in there lineup.

    • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

      I hope this is sarcasm

    • FIPster Doofus

      V-Mart and Beltre accounted for 11 wins last season by FanGraphs’ standards; one is gone, and the other will be soon. A-Gon and Crawford would probably be right around that 11-win mark next season, if not a bit better. The Red Sox will obviously be a really good team, but let’s not anoint them if they add both Gonzalez and Crawford – especially with the Yankees likely to add a Cy Young-caliber pitcher in Cliff Lee.

  • http://twitter.com/adamhobson Adam Hobson

    I really can’t believe the Red Sox are going through with this. Gonzalez is a very nice player, but think about what this does to their roster. Do they really think that Kevin Youkilis can be a full time 3b? This is a 32 year old first baseman with an injury history who has NEVER played a full season in the majors at third, and who last spent significant time on the other side of the diamond way back in 2009. Do they really think that switching from one of the best defensive third basemen in the game (who hit pretty damn well) to converting a first baseman to the hot corner will really improve the team, Gonzalez’s bat not withstanding?

    And yes, I know that the advanced stats don’t hate Youkilis at third, and a few actually like him … but there is the small sample size issue. It’s generally acknowledged that you need two to three seasons of defensive data to get a decent reading on a player and Youk only has 200 games at 3b in his entire career, plus those games were all played two to five years ago.

    This is almost as crazy an idea as the Yanks moving A-Rod back to short, or Teixeira back to third…

    • Accent Shallow

      This is almost as crazy an idea as the Yanks moving A-Rod back to short, or Teixeira back to third…

      I don’t think it’s quite that bad, but this is a not-insignificant gamble. They’re probably losing 15 runs on defense alone.

      • http://www.faketeams.com ray

        one could argue Youk is better at 3b than ARod and AGonz is a gold glove 1bman……this definitely improves the Sox, even if it costs them prospects. They now can go out and sign a Crawford or Werth…..team has iimproved

        • Accent Shallow

          one could argue Youk is better at 3b than ARod

          Please, make that argument. I’ll wait. Youkilis has never been a full-time 3B, although he did play 63 games there in 2009. It’s not easy to move the wrong way on the defensive spectrum at age 31-32.

          Beltre was a Gold Glove caliber defender. Youkilis is likely now average to slightly below, and Gonzalez is probably only a little better than Youkilis at 1B. So they have about the same quality of 1B defense, while taking a hit of 10-15 runs at 3B.

          • Dustin

            Youk played 3B in minors and was very good there.

            Youk will be gold glove @ 3B. Arod getting older and breaking down now.

            • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

              Youk is 32, not 21 like he was in the minors

          • Sweet Dick Willie

            Beltre was a Gold Glove caliber defender.

            Alex made 7 errors in 2010, Beltre made 19.

            • deadrody

              Yikes. You do realize how few errors are made at 1B, right ?

              The most from a fulltimer there last season was by Ryan Howard – 14. You ever hear the argument about why you couldn’t evaluate Ozzie Smith at SS by looking at his error numbers ? You know, because he got to so many more balls ?

              Beltre was 4th in the bigs for assists at 3B and led all of MLB in putouts for a 3B. And he was 3rd in MLB for double plays at 3B.

              Heck, if you don’t believe it, go read anything from last off-season on the justification for signing Beltre in the first place. He hadn’t put up significant offensive numbers in 5 years when the Sox signed him to shore up their defense at third.

        • http://twitter.com/adamhobson Adam Hobson

          Gonzalez may be a gold glove first baseman, but so was Youk, so that’s basically a wash. Youk is definitely a downgrade defensively at 3b replacing Beltre, just how much is the question. Remember also that Beltre was no slouch with the bat last year, he did post MVP-numbers, and a very health .310 TAv. Gonzalez’s TAv was better at .325 (TAv takes park effects into consideration), but is that upgrade enough to cover the defensive downgrade at third?

          I don’t know, but the Red Sox are certainly not clearly getting better in 2011 by this trade alone. They are probably more likely just treading water, and if Youk ends up a disaster at third this could end up being a downgrade.

          Remember also that position switches, especially those going up the defensive spectrum for players in their 30s increase the chance of injury. This trade only increases the chance that Youk could spend more time on the DL next year… and that certainly hurts the Red Sox.

        • ROBTEN

          this definitely improves the Sox, even if it costs them prospects. They now can go out and sign a Crawford or Werth…..team has iimproved

          It’s hard to say whether there has been any significant improvement.

          [All fWAR values below are averages based upon the period of time since each became a full-time player.]

          Right now, in losing Beltre and V-Mart they’re subtracting roughly 8.6 wins.

          Outside other moves–because they have not signed either Werth or Crawford yet–Gonzalez averages around 4.5 fWAR. So, with Gonzalez only, they’ve not improved the team.

          If they add Crawford (4.8 average fWAR) or Werth (3.6 average, although 5 fWAR over the past three seasons), you still have to subtract the value of the player they would be replacing. So, you’re talking about an improvement of perhaps two wins.

          Even if we assume that they don’t go forward with a Salty/Veritek combo behind the plate and also sign Martin, we’re still talking about a team that finished 89-73.

          So, would they be a 90-92 win team? Maybe.

          Does a potential one-three win improvement mean that Yankee fans should now panic? No.

          Remember, the Red Sox now also have to sign long term deals with A-Gon, and Crawford or Werth. Plus, having dealt away up to six top prospects in two years to get A-Gon and the now departed V-Mart, you have to seriously consider whether in the long term they have perhaps weakened, rather than improved, the team (as there are also now fewer young, cheap players available to either slot in as replacements to aging veterans, or available to trade for future upgrades).

          • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

            Yeah, but they lost 25 wins when the three best players in baseball, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Jacoby Ellsbury, missed the season. Not to mention the 4th-best player, Mike Cameron.

            When all those players come back and play 162 games, their team will win 125 games, easily.

            /Eric Van’d

  • Accent Shallow

    If the Red Sox get Gonzalez for Casey Kelly, I have to go from being down on his prospect status to believing in it.

    The cognitive dissonance is staggering.

    Seriously, though, for how he’s talked about, you’d think he’s putting up Phil Hughes or Clay Buchholz numbers, when he really isn’t.

    He was only 20 in AA, but 118 hits in 95 innings really gives me pause.

    • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

      Gammons was on his knees all season, and Kelly had a hard time getting him off.

    • JohnnyC

      Jed Hoyer worked for the Red Sox in his previous life. It’s no surprise he’d drink the kool-aid on any “prospect” in the system.

      • Accent Shallow

        Actually, wouldn’t Hoyer’s previous exposure give him a better perspective, rather than drinking the Kool-Aid? He’d have seen all the scouting reports on Kelly, he’d know Kelly’s strengths and weaknesses better than, say, Ned Colletti would.

        At least, that’s the hope.

        • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

          Ned Colletti doesn’t even know his own prospects. Carlos Santana for Casey Blake? lol

          Anyways, yeah it’s obvious that he knows his former team’s prospects quite well, but I wonder if he was aware of the down years many of the Sox top prospects had.

          • Louis

            Yea I was always wondering about that Carlos Santana deal…. I kept thinking that there must of been someone else that was included other than just Blake but aparantly not. just a terrible, terrible trade.

            • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

              But hey at least the Indians threw in 2m, that evened things up…

              • Accent Shallow

                Exactly. This is what happens when you have cheap owners like the McCourts . . . you ship good prospects out to get the other teams to kick in money.

                • Louis

                  Good prospects= elite prospects. Idc how much money is beingthrown in- Carlos Santana for Casey Blake? That’s ridiculous. And he’s a catcher! I’d much rather have him behind the plate than rod friggin barajas

                  • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

                    We all agree with that.
                    But cheap teams make bad decisions, they’ll upgrade a prospect just for the other team to pay an extra million or two.

    • vin

      I know you know how Phil performed as a 20 year old in AA. But for those who don’t…

      http://www.baseball-reference......ghes001phi

      Kelly has a long way to go to match up to that kind of prospect level.

  • China Joe

    At least we can say that, by trading Casey Kelly away, the Red Sox have dropped their number of aces back down to five.

    • Louis

      Yea it sucks for them that they lost the equivalent of 5 aces in that deal. What other pitcher would be able to pitch shutouts every day without any rest in between starts? Only Casey Kelly.

      • http://twitter.com/biebrichbeats ClayBuchholzLovesLaptops

        What other pitcher would be able to pitch shutouts every day without any rest in between starts?

        Old Hoss Radbourn

    • Louis

      And it’s not like gonzalez can pitch and play in the field… Kelly can do both.

  • Januz

    I looked at the Gonzalez numbers, and there is not a major difference between him and Teixeira (Tex might be more valuable because he is a switch-hitter).
    As for Gonzalez, if I am a San Diego fan, I would feel like I had my teeth kicked in. They almost made the playoffs (Beaten out by the WORLD CHAMPIONS), so their reward to me, would not only am I trading my best player, but a local guy (Born in SD, and went to Chula Vista High (I have been to Chula Vista, it is located right between SD & Baja, Mexico).
    Besides the Padre fans, the biggest loser in this is Prince Fielder. He & Boras just lost another possible landing spot for him and huge contract demands.

  • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

    Kelly, Rizzo, Fuentes

    wowwwwwwww

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      Wasn’t Fuentes drafted right before Slade?

      • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

        Yes, he is very athletic and a good hitter, but he doesn’t have any plate discipline.

      • FIPster Doofus

        Yeah, he went 28th. Heathcott was taken 29th.

  • Poopy Pants

    Gonzo >>>>>>>>> V MArt.

    Healthy Sox team >>>>>>>>>>>> Unhealthy Sox team.

    Beltre is gone, but he was due to regress anyway (I suppose).

    They should be trouble this year. Weren’t people writing them off for 2011 last week?

    • FIPster Doofus

      Beltre still had an MVP-type season in 2010. That’s tough production to replace, even though I agree that he will regress going forward.

      In any event, Boston, if healthy, is going to be a major contender. I expect both the Red Sox and Yankees to be in the playoffs. They haven’t met in the postseason since 2004; that’s due to change.

      • The Big City of Dreams

        Especially with the Rays taking a step back next yr

    • Shaun

      Beltre only plays MVP level ball when he’s contract years, after he inks those deals the wheels fall off and he burns the cart down. He refuses to do much of anything.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=sgm Andy In Sunny Daytona

    It seems that the Padres acquired Adrian Gonzalez by giving very little to get him, so it only seems fair that they get the exact thing back.

  • kosmo

    plus a “major league ready player“ I suspect someone like either Kalish or Lowrie

  • http://yankeesseeds.wordpress.com dennis

    Baseball America Trade Evaluation:
    Red Sox got a steal. Casey Kelly is a forth starter at best with fringe stuff, Rizzo is nothing compared to Lars and Fuentes is a 4th outfielder. Wow how are the red sox so smart to get the best player in the history of baseball for almost nothing. Praise Theo the boy genius.

  • AJ

    Well…at least theres no chance they steal Pujols next year.

  • http://yankeesseeds.wordpress.com dennis

    Keith Law Chat:

    Casey Kelly or a bag of marbles?

    Law: As much as I like Casey Kelly I think the bag of marbles has more potential. The bag has those intangibles that cant be tough. All the scouts I talked to love the marbles, they all tell me “this bag is going to be something special”, “plus plus peripherals across the board”.

  • Louis

    Sox lineup : (idk the order) c- saltallamachia? 1b-gonzo 2b-pedroia 3b-youkilis ss-scutaro lf-(speculation) werth cf-ellsbury rf- drew. Posada/montero >> salty- tiexiera>pedroia- arod>youkilis- jeter>scutaro- gardnerellsbury- swisher> drew. Sabathia>Lester-lee>>Beckett-Hughes lackey- burnett= dicek? Yanks bullpen>sox bullpen. I don’t think we have as much to worry about as everyone thinks.

    • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

      Woa woa woa, the Yankees haven’t signed Lee yet.

      • Louis

        Ok but the sox haven’t signed werth either. Take both of them and you have the rough equivalent of greater than or lesser thans.

      • Louis

        And I’m also gonna asume that we get Crawford if we miss out on lee. The only way were in a bad position is if we miss out on evryone this offseason.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=sgm Andy In Sunny Daytona

    It’s going to be hard for the Red Sox to start giving the “home town discount” speech to it’s players when they sign Gonzalez to a +$20 million a year contract.

    • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

      Obviously that is the make-or-break part of this deal. I wonder how willing Theo is to give Gonzalez the same money Tex got, or if he will try to sweet talk him into saying “5/50 is worth 5 championships, and all-stars as team mates, you also get to live in the great city of Boston.”

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      I’m sure they’ll find a way, they always do.
      Look at Heyman’s twitter, he’s already said that Red Sox are the team that Adrian wanted.

      • http://twitter.com/adamhobson Adam Hobson

        I think part of the reason the Red Sox are the team that Adrian wanted is because they have the money to give to the giant contract he’s expecting. From everything I’ve read, he seems like he’s wants full value from his next contract, and if the Red Sox won’t give him free market value now, he’ll just wait and hit free agency next off season.

  • Mister Delaware

    Lets play the flipside game. Sox signed Teix in December of 2008, won the 2009 World Series (we were swept in the first round). Last year we missed the playoffs altogether. Today we traded Montero, Banuelos, Heathcott and possibly another prospect or two, plus will be agreeing to a ~$175MM deal, all to make up for our mistake 23 months ago.

    Its good to be a Yankees fan.

    • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

      Replace Montero with Brandon Laird and you have a better estimation of the talent going over to the Padres.

      • Mister Delaware

        Except that’s really not true.

        • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

          It’s truer than trying to say anyone in that Boston package is even close to the caliber of prospect Montero is.

      • Mister Delaware

        (As in, all 3 (former) Sox prospects are legit, high upside players, not one year stat jumpers.)

        • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

          Kelly/Banuelos and Heathcott/Fuentes are comparable talent.

          Maybe Yankees dont have someone between Laird and Montero to compare to Rizzo, but Rizzo =/= Montero.

          • Shaun

            Except Banuelos can actually pitch against strong bats and not get knocked around like Finnegan against Johnson.

        • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

          You’re right, all three prospects’ stats dropped once they advanced a level.

  • YankeesJunkie

    It just does not seem that the Padres got enough in this deal. The Padres are giving away a franchise player for three minor leaguers who while in the top 10 for the Sox have not played above AA. If that were the case I would think that a guy like Lowrie or even Ellsbury would have to be included.

    • Mister Delaware

      Really? I actually love the approach by Hoyer. Don’t bother with players (Lou Marson / Jason Donald) you know will reach the majors but with a low ceiling, compose the entire package of high upside players. Better chance of a total flop, but also a much better chance of a major payoff.

      • YankeesJunkie

        There is nothing wrong with getting high upside players in a deal, however if you are trading a player the caliber of Adrian you want at least one player that can contribute to your MLB team right away. Obviously the player to named is not yet decided so the whole deal has not been revealed.

        • Mister Delaware

          I know that’s the common logic, I just don’t buy it. I’d much rather add additional upside than get a mediocre, low ceiling young guy to immediately show off.

          • YankeesJunkie

            If I am the Padres I would just be disappointed that Kelly is the only top 50 prospect/MLB player gotten out of the deal. However, I will be interested to see who the fourth player is because if it is another high upside prospect then a 4-1 deal is much better than a 3-1 deal.

    • Sweet Dick Willie

      Don’t forget, AG would have been a free agent after 2011, so Hoyer got those prospects in exchange for one year of Gonzalez.

      Not a bad haul considering the circumstances, although I am a bit surprised that Kalish, Reddick or Lowrie wasn’t included.

    • Reggie C.

      Ellsbury could be in that package. I’ve heard he’s a BG-caliber player with more power. It’d be a quality addition to the package.

  • Yanko

    So no Beltre defense, but Youk instead at third plus some prospects. Then the extention. Do they still have the money to sign Crawford after this pending extention? Even though A.Gon is a beast, Beltre put up some good offensive numbers for them last year, so its almost a wash.

    Crawford
    Pedroia
    Youk
    Gonzalez
    Ortiz
    Drew
    Salty
    Lowrie
    Elsberry

    Dang, if you look at it this way, its one potent top 5 with a lot of power and some speed uptop.

    • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

      Yeah, but look at the bottom four. Ye-ech.

      • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

        JD Drew is a Ye-ech? Lowrie can OPS .800 and Ellsbury can do the same while stealing 60 bases.

        The only real weak spot is Salty, but if they play the hot bat between him and Varitek they could easily do fine at C.

        The only benefit I see is they are vulnerable to lefties, AGonz is sub-.800 Ops in his career against them.

        • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

          And Jeter can hit .320, and A-Rod can slug .600, yadda yadda yadda.

          Lowrie has never played more than 81 games in a season, Drew is old and has been declining for years, Salty is just terrible, and Ellsbury missed almost the entire year, and wasn’t ever really all that great a hitter when he was healthy. Also, they’re all major red flags in terms of injury concerns. And if you remember last year for Boston, accumulating a bunch of red flags doesn’t guarantee you a green one. It just ensures your disabled list is nice and stocked.

          I should say, that bottom four is ‘ye-ech’ when you compare it to the Yankee lineup. A team like the Giants would love to have those players. But we’re comparing the Red Sox to their competition, and their lineup still doesn’t really match up well with the Yankees’.

          • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

            Just as Salty has Varitek, Lowrie has Scutaro and Ellsbury has Cameron. Between those six players, and Francona’s decent ability to manage playing time, it’s a good bet they get at least average production from those slots.

            Let’s do it the old breakdown way:
            C: Advantage Yanks
            1b: Advantage Sox
            2b: Advantage Yanks
            SS: Push?
            3B: Advantage Sox
            LF: Advantage Sox (if Werth/Crawford)
            CF: Advantage Yanks
            RF: Advantage Yanks
            DH: Push?

            That’s pretty darn close. They’re close at a few positions (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, DH, RF). The Yanks have a clear advantage in CF and at C but that assumes that Montero integrates well and that Granderson continues his resurgence. LF could be close or a clear advantage if the Sox sign another player.

            But the Sox did not have trouble scoring runs last year, even with all of the injuries. Their pitching is the big question mark and if the Yanks sign Lee they’re clearly the favorites.

            • http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

              1B is a wash. And are you really saying Youk is a better 3B than ARod?

            • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

              Youk can’t even hold A-Rod’s jock strap.

            • radnom

              More like this….

              C: Advantage Yanks
              1b: Push
              2b: Advantage Yanks
              SS: Advantage Yanks
              3B: Push (uncertainty with Arod’s health makes this a push)
              LF: Advantage Sox (if Werth/Crawford)
              CF: Advantage Yanks
              RF: Slight Advantage Yanks
              DH: Advantage Sox (Slight, but I like Ortiz to produce at a higher level than Posada next year).

              Not all that close, Yankees clearly have a better lineup even with Werth/Crawford.

        • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

          Fact: in Jacoby Ellsbury’s two full seasons in the majors, he OPS+’d 87 and 97.

          • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

            He’s over rated, no doubt. But his speed is undervalued in OPS+.

        • Mattchu12

          They will sign Miguel Olivo or Russell Martin, bank on it.

  • C

    This really knocks down Bostons farm system a peg or two. I would say they are a bottom 10 system now.

    • Sweet Dick Willie

      The first sentence is true. The second, not so much.

      • C

        Who exactly do they have prosect wise? A bunch of guys they drafted last year who haven’t done jack yet and Iglesias.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      They’re getting 5 compensation picks in the 2011, so yeah those rankings change quickly.

  • Reggie C.

    A-Gonz can’t be any better than what Beltre produced last season. If anything, Gonzalez might represent a step back offensively factoring in a slight adjustment to a new league.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      Sure he can. He can provide the same .550 SLG except with an OBP over .390

  • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

    The Sox don’t have to give up one major league ready prospect for Adrian Gonzalez? The Yanks gave up much more for Curtis Granderson.

    Moreover, if the Pads had simply let him walk they would have gotten picks equal to Kelly and Fuentes (both 1st rounders). So for one year of AGonz at $6M they get Fuentes?

    This deal is a great, sweatheart deal for the Sox. I can’t believe that the Pads couldn’t get one major league ready player from any other team or even from the Sox. That seems insane even if the extension is there. Shoot, this is a deal you give up regardless of whether you can sign him to an extension. They get 6-7 wins next year for $6M and without losing any wins from their major league club.

    • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

      Yeah, but Curtis Granderson plays a premium defensive position (rather well), and wasn’t just about to be a free agent.

      • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

        AGon is a Gold Glover too and is a top 10 bat in the game.

        • Sweet Dick Willie

          And will get a contract that approximates Teixeira’s.

          • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

            Actually, it looks like he’ll get far less, perhaps as much as $50M less.

      • Sweet Dick Willie

        And was signed to a reasonable contract for the next 3 years (with a club option for a 4th).

    • JDDZip

      the deal doesn’t go through unless an extention is signed.

    • steve (different one)

      As others have pointed out, granderson was under control for 4 years at below market rates. That’s the difference. Period.

  • ultimate913

    10:52am: Morosi tweets that Gonzalez is seeking a Ryan Howard-like contract. Howard signed a five-year contract extension worth $125MM earlier this year.

    Only 5 years? If I’m the Red Sox, I’d be comfortable with that, even though he’d want 23+ mil per year.

    • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

      Wow, that’s really something. A short deal and no impact prospects, not even in the VMart deal.

      The Sox trade a pu pu platter for perhaps the second best 1B in the game who’s south of 30. Kudos to Epstein.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      But that 5 years was on top of the 39m he had coming to him for 2010 and 2011. Adrian has 6m coming to him this year, not sure why he wouldn’t demand 6-7 years.

      But I’m sure we’ll hear the story lines about as a young boy growing up in San Diego, he always loved and admired the Red Sox organization and his dad always had dreams about his boy playing at Fenway.

      /bay’d
      /vmart’d
      /beltre’d
      /et al

  • LunaticFringe

    By a show of hands, who would trade Montero for the package of prospects the Red Sox seem to be giving up here?

    • http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

      Nope.

    • YankeesJunkie

      Nope

    • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

      Nope.

    • Sweet Dick Willie

      Nope.

      But a major reason is The Jesus is ML ready and will be making the ML minimum for the next 3 years.

      • deadrody

        Not true. That might be a consideration for a ML team, but not fans. I don’t evaluate Jesus Montero’s potential contribution to the team based on his salary. Certainly there is some amount of reality involved with the high salaries and elevated ages of A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, CC, Burnett, Cliff Lee (hoping), etc.

        But in general I don’t think ahead to next season and worry about how much anybody is making.

        So when I say “hell no” I wouldn’t trade Montero for Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes, it has nothing to do with how much Montero will make. It does matter some that he is ML ready, but if it were Gary Sanchez for those three, I would probably say “Meh”. Whatever.

        The fact is that none of those three is going to be the kind of ML player that Montero will be, and so NO, I wouldn’t trade him for all three.

        • Rivera Venue Blues

          I do worry about what salary he’s making because having cheap production is what allows us to go out and buy up the free agents we want.

    • Shaun

      Fuck no

      • Monteroisdinero

        I saw Jesus play against Pawtucket this past year. A man amongst boys.

  • UnNamed Yankee Source

    Hmmmm…..

    Sure looks like SD could use a 1B with Pop? Nick Swisher anyone?

    How about a Swisher for Heath Bell deal, saves the Yanks $2.75m and opens a hole for Crawford.

    • YankeesJunkie

      No reason to buy Crawford especially if it means trading a 4 WAR OF to a 1 WAR setup man. Just a bad deal for the Yankees all around.

    • Sweet Dick Willie

      Nick Swisher is waaaaay more valuable to the Yanks than Heath Bell would be.

      If the Yanks were to move Swish, I’m sure the return would be MUCH greater than Heath Bell.

    • http://www.facebook.com/#!/profile.php?id=9370232 Mike HC

      I wouldn’t do that, but it does make you think how much Swisher could actually get us in trade. He might not get us much more than that or a decent, but not top notch prospect.

  • Mattchu12

    The way I’m looking at it, they are trading in V-Mart and Beltre for A-Gon and Werth (predicting not nearly as productive in coming years). It’s still an upgrade, but I think it only makes them a little better. I think a healthy Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis makes a bigger difference than that swap.

  • http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

    No Major League talent?

    Hey Padres GM, your trade proposal sucks.

  • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

    I thought Hoyer would play hardball with his old team and demand MLB-ready talent.

  • eckss

    So they’re basically flipping Beltre for A-Gon… I’m more concerned by the fact that they surprisingly didn’t do so badly scoring runs even with all the injuries last year.

  • MikeD

    Hmmmm, so I guess now we go from mocking Casey Kelly to rooting for him to be the next Roger Clemens?!

  • Sick Nwisher

    “Some” Yankee fans really need stop letting their Red Sox hatred cloud their judgement. The Red Sox made out great on this trade.
    Epstein really needs to take a bow for this trade. I hate to say it but this was a job well done by Theo.

    • pat

      I don’t think anybody is bashing the Sox. Moreso people bashing the Padres for not getting more back in return.

      • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

        Bingo.

    • Not Tank the Frank

      I’m more impressed with the Yankees ability to resist trading their top talent to sign a player to a long-term, big money extension. They only seem willing to do it for a top flight pitcher (Halladay, Lee).

      But no one will ever give the Yankees FO any credit. All they do is shell out money for old players.

  • Tom T

    Man you guys are being a little hard on this deal. The Padres got the Sox’s 1, 3 and 6 prospects and a PTBNL AND they have to pay Gonzalez. ERA isn’t everything — Kelly’s FIP was much better and he has age, stuff and scouting reports on his side. Personally I think the Sox paid quite a bit to get 1 year of Gonzalez.

    • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

      Kelly gave up 11 hits per 9 in AA. He’s at least two years away from the majors.

      Rizzo has never cracked a .500 SLG in the minors and sits below a .350 OBP. A major league 1B he’s not, especially because he made 15 errors in 100 games last year.

      Fuentes is Slade Heathcott without the discipline – a low-A barely adequate stick.

      By contrast, AGon is an MVP talent especially hitting in Fenway with two Gold Gloves. He’s getting paid $6M in 2011 and will deliver 5-6 wins. That’s easily worth this package where there’s a good chance none of these prospects contributes 5-6 wins in their entire careers, and certainly not in the next two or three years.

  • LunaticFringe

    Hell’s Bells, the Yankees were ready to ship Montero and David Adams out for half a season of Cliff Lee. I’m not critisizing the Red Sox, I’m saying the package San Diego is getting seems kinda…light.

  • Sweet Dick Willie

    Nothing like a trade to change one’s perspective.

    From Pete Abe, re Casey Kelly: He’s a big loss, a potential No. 2 starter with great makeup. (emphasis mine)

    No. 2? I thought he was being touted as the best pitching prospect in MLB, the next Roger Clemens.

    Oh, that’s right. That was when he was w/ the Sux. Now that he’s with the Pads, he’s just a potential No. 2.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      I laughed, that was so predictable.

    • Russell NY

      Exactly

  • nathan

    You could see this trade coming almost 1.5 years back. As soon as Hoyer was hired this was a given.

    This trade feels a lot like the Kevin Garnett TWolves-Celtics trade. Boston just made another day light robbery. I think there would have been far better packages out there