Vegas Watch 2011 Over/Under

Open Thread: February 21st Camp Notes
On mansions, hunger and Hank Steinbrenner

Vegas Watch (via Bookmaker) posted the 2011 over/under win totals over the weekend, and they set the Yankees at 91. I’m going to take the over, but not by much. I remain unconvinced that going from 21 starts of Andy Pettitte, 26 starts of Javy Vazquez, nine starts of Dustin Moseley, and seven starts of Ivan Nova to about 60 starts of Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Sergio Mitre, Nova, misc. prospect, misc. free agent, and misc. trade acquisition, is more than a four win downgrade, though it’s certainly a downgrade. What do you think?

A few others that I’m sure will get mentioned in the comments: Red Sox (96), Phillies (97), and Rays (86). I’m going to say under on the first two and over on the last. I don’t feel comfortable saying any team will win more than 95 games, nevermind 97. Tampa’s still really good, though not as good as last year.

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Open Thread: February 21st Camp Notes
On mansions, hunger and Hank Steinbrenner
  • squishy jello person

    Push on the Yankees, under on the Sox and Phillies, over on the Rays.

    • The Real JobaWockeeZ

      This. Though for the Sox it’s a push.

  • KofH

    Over on the Yanks, based on Granderson’s new stance and Gardner’s wrist if nothing else.

    • squishy jello person

      Odd year A-Rod

  • OxxStone

    Yanks over.

  • Januz

    I am going to go under on the Yankees (I think about 86 is right), under on the Mets (To quote “Bill & Ted” “69 Dude”), & under on St Louis (I predict 83). My overs are Milwaukee (I am going 88 wins), Toronto (I will go .500 with 81 wins), & the White Sox (They look like a 90 win team with Adam Dunn).

    • http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

      I don’t think Toronto is finishing at .500. They won 85 last year and lost 12.6 bWAR in Wells, Marcum, Overbay, and Buck. I’m not counting on Bautista putting up 50 home runs again.

    • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

      I seriously doubt the Yanks are going to have a nine game dropoff. They’re probably a 92-93 win team. The loss in starting pitching is overblown, IMO. If some team falls out of it early there’s probably a good starter to be had. It’s all patience.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Where are the nine extra losses coming from? Andy Pettitte wasn’t that good last year (when he wasn’t injured).

  • 28 this year

    well I don’t know too much about gambling, but shouldn’t the win totals have a .5 so that over/under works without having to pick right on the number?

    • Beamish

      No, because on a PUSH the Book still wins – it is all about the 10%.

      They want equal bets on both sides of the number. Which is why the Philly number is 97 – they have to balance all those Jimmy Rollins ‘tards with 100+ win aspirations with equal numbers of “under” bets. If they picked something more realistic like 94 everyone would be picking the over and they might well have to pay out.

      These numbers have less to do with how many games they actually think a team will win as how many games they think the bettors think they will win.

      • Slugger27

        a push doesnt win for the book… u get ur money back

        • Beamish

          Less the 10% you paid to make the bet. Never met a bookie who did not keep his vig and never knew a casino that did not have a margin if there was the possibility of a push.

  • Nemesis

    Anybody know when BA’s top 100 prospect list comes out?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Wednesday.

  • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

    as I said when I first saw these. I tried to take no “push”es.

    Arizona: under
    Atlanta: over
    Baltimore: just over
    Boston: just over
    Cubs: under
    White Sox: over
    Cincinnati: under
    Cleveland: under
    Colorado: under
    Detroit: over
    Florida: over
    Houston: under
    Kansas City: under
    Angels: under
    Dodgers: just over
    Milwaukee: over
    Minnesota: just over
    Mets: under
    Yankees: just over
    Oakland: over
    Philadelphia: over
    Pittsburgh: over
    St. Louis: under
    San Diego: just over
    San Francisco: under
    Seattle: under
    Tampa Bay: just over
    Texas: under
    Toronto: over
    Washington: just over

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

      And yeah, I’m taking the over on the Phillies. Call me crazy.

      • mbonzo

        I’m gonna say, way under for the Phillies. Their position players are becoming less and less impressive (Utley, Victorino, Rollins, Ibanez, Polanco). I expect good years from Howard and Ruiz, and I think Brown will be in contention for rookie of the year. Their bullpen is a joke. I am gonna say under, nothing more than 90 wins.

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          That’s nuts, I’m sorry. They have an insane rotation. Yeah health plays a part, and most of them are not that young, but if the Yankees had that rotation, everyone would be crying in utter joy. Their offense is no longer elite, but it’ll probably be really good for the NL. They had worse injuries than Boston last year and still managed to be pretty dang good there. Lidge… you don’t know what you’re getting from him, but they won quite a few games over 90 with an absolutely disastrous Lidge in 2009, and a much weaker rotation. Madsen and Contreras are both pretty good, especially Madsen.

  • Januz

    I see a substantial dropoff in the starting rotation, and I think Boston will be even better than the mainstream media thinks. This team looks like a 3rd place team. The best thing is the Mets look like the Isiah Thomas Knicks, so we don’t have to bear the brunt of a rebuilding reason alone.

    • http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

      and I think Boston will be even better than the mainstream media thinks

      I really don’t think that’s possible

      • Mike M

        “The Red Sox were slated to win about 95 games last year. They won 89 despite injuries to Pedroia (a former MVP) and Youkilis (a possible future MVP). Add them back, along with the new players and a healthy Ellsbury, and 100 wins doesn’t just appear plausible. It seems downright inevitable.”

        hahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahah

        • Beckster

          Downright comical. Jesus christ.

  • nsalem

    Too much RS love, their 3,4 and 5 is extremely questionable and they are 1 injured starter away from having Wakefield back in the rotation. Health and depth as always will be major players in this coming year

  • jon

    I now live in maine so i always have to listen to red sox talk on the local sports radio

    one of the guys at night thinks the red sox will win AT LEAST 103 games

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

      103? Please. The 1998 Yankees need to start getting ready to give up their title.

  • I am not the droids you’re looking for

    I think the AL East standings on the last day of the regular season will look remarkably as they did last year in terms of win totals, with the Sawx and Rays simply switched. And Toronto 2 games better.

    That is all

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

      How is Toronto going to get better?

      • nsalem

        Bautista will hit 74 HR’s

  • Thomas Tu

    The Phillies should win 120 games. Easy.

    Also…

    CARMELO IS A KNICK!!!!!!!!! (wrong sport, I know)

  • theyankeewarrior

    The fact that the Yankees have $20M in their pockets and a top 5 farm system makes me think that over 91 is a good bet. IMO, they are a 91 win team right now.

    Add a legit #2 or 3 starter and a piece here and there, and they should easily beat that.