Mat Latos and the cost of a young ace
ByThe Reds and Padres pulled off a mini-blockbuster earlier today, with 24-year-old right-hander Mat Latos heading to Cincinnati for Edinson Volquez and prospects Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger. Latos has been one of the best young pitchers in the game the last two seasons, with lots of strikeouts and few walks, plus he has virtually no home/road split (so he’s not a product of Petco Park). On the downside, he missed time with a shoulder problem early in 2011 and has a long history of makeup concerns.
Understandably, the Reds had to give up significant talent to acquire Latos, who can’t become a free agent until after the 2015 season. They gave up their third, fourth, and tenth best prospects in the trade (according to Baseball America), as well as a 28-year-old big league starting pitcher with a well above average season to his credit (albeit three years ago). For those of you holding out hope that the Yankees will pull of a trade for a young stud pitcher like this — which I am — we now have a pretty good reference for what it would take to acquire the guy. It’s going to hurt, a lot.
For those asking, a comparable Yankees package would have been something like Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes, Gary Sanchez Austin Romine, and Adam Warren. Not a perfect match, but in the ballpark. Romine fits better than Sanchez because Grandal will spend next year in Triple-A.
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Wowzers. Great move though. With Pujols and Prince out of their division its time for them to take a shot.
+Houston leaving the division soon…
Yeah, they should make the push before the easy wins against Houston are gone.
Wow. A team trading a good player looks like they actually got something back.
CC deal sucked
Lee deal sucked, twice
Victor Martinez deal sucked
Halladay deal sucked
Pence deal sucked
Oswalt deal sucked
Garza deal sucked
It seems like the teams trading the big names never get anything in return.
The Victor Martinez deal most definitely did not suck. Justin Masterson is a monster.
I wouldn’t say he’s a monster, but he’s a pretty good pitcher. They still could have gotten more. I should mark Pence off there, those guys haven’t even seen the ML yet.
Even some little trades suck.
Weiland and Lowrie for Melancon? The Astros could have gotten a lot more from somewhere else.
Masterson is better than Martinez straight up.
I don’t think the Halladay deal sucked at all. D’Arnaud has huge potential, if Drabek figures it out, he can be really good, and Gose’s (through Taylor and Wallace) has risen tremendously. It’s too early say that deal sucked.
I think the Garza deal is going to look good for Tampa in two years as well.
Possibly, but it doesn’t look that way for Drabek.
Did Tampa get anything in return for Garza? All I know is an overrated Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer.
Chris Archer
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....pid=502042
Hak-Ju Lee is another top 100 prospect as well, and he’s a shortstop. Wooo.
Plus his name is awesome.
I’d add AGon to the list.
Rizzo’s shine has come off a year out of the RedSox/Gammons spotlight and I’m curious to see where Casey Kelley is on the BA list…. but he’s no longer the future ace (Gammons/MSM) and some are questioning if he’ll be more than a middle of the rotation type starter.
So now that SD has given up on Anthony Rizzo after one year, can we officially call the Adrien Gonzalez trade absurdly one sided?
People have been calling one-sided since the day it happened, mostly because they need to complain about everything favoring the Red Sox somehow.
Kelly still has the chance to be a pretty good pitcher. And Rizzo is still a good prospect, so whatever they get back for him should be a decent piece.
Noooo…Kelly got pounded in AA last year and didn’t do that great when repeating it. His K-rates are low and his walk rates are too high for pitchers that don’t fan that many batters. Typically guys that don’t throw that hard (90-92) but are able to throw strikes do pretty well up until AA and then get hit pretty hard, that pretty much describes Casey Kelly. He’s still age appropriate and he’s by no means a bad prospect, but lets stop acting like he’s fair compensation for the best player that the Pads have had since Tony Gwynn.
Don’t forget the Sox gave up the best baseball prospect of all time, in Casey Kelly as part of the deal.
I’m pretty sure they haven’t given up on a 21-year-old player who one of the key players in a massive trde who in his first season at AAA ball triple slashed at .331/.404/.652, his best season yet in the minors. 128 big league ABs does not a career make. If they have given up, the Yankees should call.
PCL stats
While the MLB #’s are obviously not representative of skill, neither are #’s put up in the PCL (AAA)…
For some perspective (granted these guys are older, but it shows how hitter friendly an environment it is):
Cody Ransom (yes that Cody Ransom) posted a .317/405/.629 for Reno
Former Mariner great Ryan Langerhans posted a .311/.437/.573
Not saying they should give up on Rizzo by any stretch but he was hyped based on one breakout year in the Boston farm system and an inflated season in the PCL…. still a good prospect, but I don’t see him as a big time 1st baseman or hitter.
His young age — 21 — his reputation and his strong stats say much more.
My point is they have not given up on him by any stretch. I’ll take him in the Yankee farm system immediately if they have given up on him.
“Not saying they should give up on Rizzo by any stretch but he was hyped based on one breakout year in the Boston farm system and an inflated season in the PCL…. still a good prospect, but I don’t see him as a big time 1st baseman or hitter.”
A bit confused – are you disagreeing with the above comment or simply pointing out he’s young?
I’m saying take that slash line with a major grain of salt… saying it is his best season ever has a lot less meaning when it is in a league that is so hitter friendly (and a league that some teams will sometimes keep their top pitching prospects out of for that very reason and keep them in AA prior to the jump to the bigs).
It would be more telling if he hadn’t massively outperformed his past #’s in a league like that. His ISO was an absurd .320 and his wOBA jumped 70 points… his numbers at previous levels were good (especially as he was generally a bit young for the level), but they were typically in the OPS ~.800-820 range which for a 1B prospect is good but I’m not sure I would call it strong.
Given a similar deal, could’ve had 25 year old Darvish, 24 year old Latos, 21 year old Banuelos, 25 year old Nova under control. Sounds like a pretty good start to get under the luxury tax in 2014.
Plus an offense that is closer than we’d like to desperately needing some young impact talent infused into the mix.
You don´t know what is in store for Rizzo anymore than what the Padres plan on doing with Alonso. Rizzo is still a great prospect.
“a comparable Yankees package would have been something like Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes, Gary Sanchez, and Adam Warren”
I wouldn’t make this deal but Cashman is delusional in thinking he can trade for quality pitching without surrendering top prospects.
Also, I think Phil Hughes has just as good a chance as Nova to win 15 games next year.
TO be fair, I think Cashman acknowledges that quality, top-shelf pitching can’t be acquired for free. What he keeps coming back to is that that pitching isn’t really available. That said, I’m not sure how much he was in on Latos. I personally would have preferred to not make this deal either, mostly because I love Montero, but I would be curious to know if the Yankees and the Padres had a conversation about Latos and the associated cost or not.
Comparing the Padres-Reds trade to what is rumored Oakland wants from Detroit for Gio – Turner,Smyley and Castellanos. The Reds essentially gave up Alonso a ever so slightly faded prospect who has no real defensive position, a fine catching prospect in Grandal, a huge question mark in Volquez and a relief pitcher. Detroit would have to give up for Gio 2 of their 3 or 4 best pitching prospects and a A ball hitting prospect.
and they will. Verlander Fister Scherzer and Porcello are all young. If they get Gio the top three will miss a lot of bats.
“They gave up their third, fourth, and tenth best prospects in the trade… as well as a 28-year-old big league starting pitcher with a well above average season to his credit.”
Wouldn’t that be like: Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren and Ivan Nova/Phil Hughes with maybe Sanchez/Romine thrown in there instead of one of the killer-b’s? Or is Montero not the best prospect all of a sudden? Just seems your ranking of the Yankees prospects are off, though we have to wait a bit still for the updated list.
If it is the list I gave (with Romine instead of a B) I would have done that in a second. Would have even thrown in their choice of utility shortstops (Japanese or Nunezese).
He was taking into account the quality and “position” of the prospects. If the Yanks were to make a similar deal, he’s assuming that they would need to send over two bats and two arms that roughly equaled the value of the package that the Reds sent over.
Not all number three, four, and ten prospects are created equal.
Yonder = big MLB ready bat at 1B
Grandal = AAA catcher
Boxberger = AAA relief arm
Volquez = struggling MLB RHP
Volquez is such a hassle as a struggling pitcher with issues, I wonder if San Diego took him the Reds upgraded another prospect. I don’t think Volquez matches Hughes at all, more like Joba.
Ah understood. Thanks for explaining further to thickheads like myself.
Not being a troll, but I don’t think Cashman is a top GM, average at best. I honestly don’t understand all the love he gets here. What good trades has he made? Granderson, which worked out for all three teams. Swisher, how would that have worked out if Tex wasn’t signed and Swish was 1B? CC and Tex were no brainers if you get the owner’s ok and a blank check.We know all the bad signings, which most fans didn’t like from day one, my favorite was Jaret Wright. I wonder if he bid on Mike Napoli when he was available. Melancon, Dunn, Clippard, Arodys, you can’t tell me teams had to have these guys to get those deals done. At the very least, Cashamn lacks creativity and if he was GM for a team that really has to manage payroll, he’d be out of baseball by now. No, I’m not saying I can do better but there are resumes of many talented people out there.
Jaret Wright was Steinbrenner. He signed him because he thought it would help him get Leo Mazzone from Atlanta. Wright failed his pre-signing physical and George still signed him.
I thought my mosted hated Steinbrenner signing was Sheffield over Vlad, tough call. There are plenty of bad moves on Cashamn’s resume, I’m sure everyone has a favorite. Was Womack a Cash move? It was one the same day or at least the same week.
I think Cashman was leaning toward bringing back Cairo, but Levine pushed for Womack.
Either way, they weren’t signing someone good for 2B. It was going to be another stopgap guy, just a question of how bad a guy. Cairo would’ve looked great compared to Womack, but signing Womack meant Cano got the job sooner. So I think it worked out for the best.
I’m somewaht skeptical of revisionist history that arises several years after the fact so I tried to find some confirmation of what the scuttlebutt was at the time.
Contemporaneous (from 2005) back-and-forth on whether Cashman was responsible for Jaret Wright.
The back:
“OK, well Cashman admitted that he made the Wright move. So that’s one example to prove that’s wrong.”
The forth:
“Cashman made no such admission. He admitted he played the market incorrectly when dealing with Lieber, forcing him to look elsewhwere, but Wright was suggested by Billy Emslie.”
So the Cashman defender tries to take Cash off the hook by saying Wright was “suggested” by Billy Esmile of the Tampa faction. But even he doesn’t say that Cashman opposed the move or that Steinbrenner himself insisted on it.
link for quotes
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.....8;start=20
Signing CC when he became available is a no-brainer. Won’t argue that. What about standing pat on Johan Santana the year before though? That was probably the hardest part en route to signing Sabathia. He deserves some credit for that.
I’m not shedding any tears over Melancon. He was clearly squeezed out of the Yankees plans and they got Berkman for him. Berkman was mostly a disappointment, but he played a nice role in the Yanks’ advancing to the ALCS.
Clippard has blossomed in WAS, but who knows if that would have happened in NYC. I’d love to have Arodys back, but what are you gonna do?
Cash has made his share of bad calls, but I still feel like the Yanks are in good hands with him.
Yeah, every GM screws up, Cashman just has bigger screw ups because he plays in the deeper end of the pool. Most teams hand out a Pavano-sized contract once every 3-5 years, the Yankees used to give out two or three of those an offseason.
I would agree with most of what you say but I haven´t the time or inclination to look around the league and check out how many other teams have given up on so many good pitching prospects. From Axford to Clippard, Arodys, IPK, Melancon etc. it adds up to a pretty healthy list. Who would be the Yanks main competition in that department ?
Exactly one of those guys is a starter. The Yankees can trade young relievers until they’re blue in the face for all I’m concerned.
Is Arodys a reliever>
Maybe he means an established MLB starter?
Atlanta used him exclusively in relief this year when they promoted him to the bigs. Is Joba a reliever?
Melancon, Clippard, and Axford were not good pitching prospects when the Yankees traded them away. Clippard’s barely a good pitcher NOW. Except for Aroldys, everyone else you mentioned has performed above expectations since being traded.
What about the prospects that Cashman has given up in trades that haven’t amounted to anything? I can’t even name anyone in the Abreu trade besides CJ Henry. Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens haven’t done much. I doubt Cashman is losing sleep over the guys in the Swisher trade.
I think this all boils down to the fact that prospects are hit or miss, and when you’ve been a GM as long as Cashman you’re going to have a lot of both that you’ve traded away.
I think your being somewhat revisionist. Clippard had a very solid MILB career before being traded for Ablaledejo. Clippard´s WAR has been very good over the last couple of seasons. Didn´t he also make the All-star team in 2011 ?
What was wrong with Melancon´s MILB career ? His limited 17 inning stint with NY was such a SSS. His mechanics got messed up when the Yanks wanted him to alter his pitching style so when he was traded he went back to doing what made him successful in the first place.
“Swisher, how would that have worked out if Tex wasn’t signed and Swish was 1B?”
Cashman is an average GM because he failed your “what if” game?
Why would he have bid on Mike Napoli? We didn’t know Posada was done then, and Russell Martin was in the fold. Where would Napoli have played?
Dayum. The Reds really just elevated their rotation without having to part with Cueto or Homer Bailey. These guys are going to make a serious run at a vulnerable Cards team.
Could the Yanks have pulled this deal off without trading Montero? Hellz No. That’s a conversation stopper for 90% of this board.
Bailey is the Reds Phil Hughes. Still waiting for a breakout season from Bailey and for that matter Hughes.
uh…look at 2010. that was a pretty damn good year
I would have done Montero+ for Latos. The shoulder problems from earlier this year scare me, but he did throw 190+ IP after coming back.
I would do a Banuelos,Gardner, Warren and Laird trade for Gio and Michael Taylor.
What? Really?
Homer Bailey sucks.
Hey Mike –
Would you make the comp trade you laid out?
I wouldn’t do Montero AND Romine in the same deal. That’s all of their catching depth gone in one move. Swap one of them out for a comparable prospect (Romine is the easier one to replace in the package, obviously) and I would.
I ask because I don’t think most people on here would (some wouldn’t even do that deal for Felix).
Not sure Cashman would either. Seems a bit gunshy to trade our top guys unless he’s getting a top 5 pitcher in baseball.
But are there really any hitters in the upper minors in the Yankee system? It seems basically Montero, Romine and . . . that’s about it.
Tons of upside guys further down the ladder, but the Padres didn’t seem interested in talent 4 years out.
J.R Murphy never gets any love around here. He could also be moved instead of Romine.
I definitely don’t see that, but to each his own.
The Yanks need a young bat like Montero more than they need Latos.
DH’s are much easier to find than young, cheap, high-end starters
Right handed hitters that can hit for average and with opp. field power is not common in the least though
Neither are 3B who can draw walks and throw flat-footed with pace.
They need both on this team going forward.
Based on the Latos trade, what do you think Danks would now require in a potential deal? It seems as tho Gio and Garza are almost out of the question.
Danks would come much cheaper because he’s a FA after this season. Latos is cost-controlled for 4 more years.
you’d think…..we have to convince Williams of that.
I’d rather just go with Kuroda for one year or at least get a price on Edwin Jackson before trading anybody of significance for Danks.
what it will take and what it should take are probably two separate things. Kenny Williams as been asking nearly as much for Danks as the Padres were for Latos.
The Reds gave up a lot to get Latos but Jesus Montero ranked as the third best prospect in the game behind only Bryce Harper and Mike Trout while Yonder Alonso ranked 73rd. Montero >>>>> Alonso
No…Moore and teheran were highs than Montero. Montero is No 8, if I remember correctly.
Incorrect. Maybe your talking about the mid season Rankings. I’m pretty certain Montero will rank ahead of Teheran in the upcoming top 100 (due out in Feb).
The point is Montero is a MUCH better prospect than Alonso.
You’re forgetting about the Yankee Tax. You know, the absurd markup that the Yankees have to pay in trade just because they’re the Yankees?
Based on Olney’s tweet. In an alternate universe say the Reds decided to cash in on Votto to plug Alonso in. Wouldn’t they have grabbed a better haul both short and long term? Everyone loves Votto but they could have really picked up a boatload of top prospects/mlb ready youngsters.
Possibly, seems like the Latos trade is a bid for the Reds to win now while they still have Votto. Also helps that Latos is under control for a good long while.
So Latos, Pence, Victor Martinez, Dan Haren, the first Teixeira deal and Matt Garza all seemed to net their teams a pretty good haul. The CC trade was probably a good idea since they got a good first base prospect and a guy that they wanted to replace Sizemore in Center, however Matt LaPorta couldn’t hit big league pitching so that deal didn’t really break their way. Cliff Lee was stolen twice, once by Philly and a second time by Seattle. They at least got Smoak, who might be a rich man’s Lyle Overbay…for three months that isn’t terrible, I guess. Zack Greinke netted the Royals absolutely dick, Alcidies Escobar was the centerpiece and maybe Jake Odorizzi turns out to not be terrible, who knows, but they got rocked pretty hard on that deal. Oswalt…meh, he’s about cooked, he had a good year in 2010 for Philly and was hurt n 2011, sure I would have made that deal a thousand times over but lets not act like he was stolen. The Gonzalez deal everyone here knows was a steal for Boston, but that happens sometimes when a team’s desperate to unload a player. The Halladay deal kinda blew up for the Blue Jays, I mean it looked like they were compensated semi-fairly at the time, but Drabek started to suck and a few things didn’t break their way, it happens.
YCPB, I guess.
From Axford to Clippard, Arodys, IPK, Melancon etc. it adds up to a pretty healthy list.
IMO, this isn’t the right way to look at it. Cashman has been the GM for 13-14 years and his team is ALWAYS buying. Since he plays in a market that is always going for it, and prospects are the currency with which you buy things, of course there will be some ex-Yankee prospects out there that the team missed on.
There is no GM to compare him to, because no other GM is in the same situation. The only comparable one was Theo, and his tenure was only about half as long as Cashman’s. And Theo traded away Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez (that trade worked out for them, but Cash is getting dinged for IPK, right?). He traded Engel Beltre and David Murphy for Eric Gagne. Gave away Bronson Arroyo (sucks now, but was good for a while). Brandon Lyon (if we’re counting Clippard), Freddy Gonzalez, Kelly Shoppach, etc.
Cashman isn’t the best GM, but most other teams operate in a different world where they save up assets for a run every few years then sell them off as their window closes, so they get to trade vets for prospects and restock. That is something the Yankees almost never, ever do. He also always drafts at the end of the round and has fewer picks because the Yankees are always active in the FA market.
Cash needs to make another move before August for a starter. That is clear, and it’s a valid criticism. But directionally, the team is doing well in his hands.
What would you think if the yankees traded Gardner, Montero, and Nunez for Gio Gonzalez.
If Montero was part of the trade, I’d barf.
The Yankees need pitching but with an graying line up they also need some youth in the field. To trade essentially all of what they have in that department (sans Cano) in one deal would be foolhearty in my opinion. We’ve got some young arms on the Farm, but aside from catching there isn’t all that much on the imediate horizon in terms of talent for position players. Gio is a quality picher but I fear his walk rates would only increase in AL East.
Not sure I’d do that if you Montero out of it. You do realize that Gardner is a 6 win player, right?
I don’t care who the pitcher is, I don’t trade Jesus. I’ve followed this team a long time, my father has scouted for the pros for a long time, and we are both very excited to watch this kid hit in Yankee Stadium.
I haven’t been this excited for anything Yankees related since going to see Jeter play in Columbus.
Montero is light years better than Alonso imo. That would alter the deal for the Yankees, with respect to what else they would have had to give up in any prospective deal. Personally, I’m glad they didn’t make the deal. Splits or not, I’m very wary of investing anything of worth in NL West pitchers. That might be the worst division in baseball in terms of offense. That’s not to say I wouldn’t love a Cain, Lincecom, etc. It just means I’d be wary of most.
Cashman is entirely overrated and mediocre. I love the Yankees, and like Cashman, but let’s not be homers and think he’s some sort of magical GM. He makes some decent deals, but also makes some moves where you scratch your head. Cashman is fortunate that he has the bank roll he does. He’s not terrible. He’s middle of the road imo.
Even though he’s kinda old, pitches in the NL West, in a park that is good for pitchers, I’d take a 1 year flier on Kuroda, if the price for Danks is too high. I’m not sure how well he’d do in the AL East, but the fact that he’s been productive, is a pitcher as opposed to a thrower, and is only looking for a 1 year deal makes him attractive. Even overpaying for that 1 season I’d do, simply because it would mean flexibility going into the very strong free agent class of next year. Siging someone like Jackson, who might outperform Kuroda in the AL East, would require overpaying for 4-5 years. Jackson is ok, but I’d rather have open spots and lots of cash to play with next winter.
Maybe I’m crazy but I wouldn’t be all that opposed to that deal that Mike proposed of the Yankee comp.
I’m not including Montero in any deal unless it’s for an elite pitcher. When I say elite, I don’t mean Gio Gonzalez. Teams know the Yanks need pitching so their asking price is going to be sky high. Cash is waiting for the price to go down. I’d be shocked if Montero was involved in any deal besides Felix or any pitcher of that caliber.
I don’t include Montero in any deal other than a Halladay/ Sabathia type.
TheYankees need a young offensive talent who has been clutch in the minors. Montero looks to be that guy IMO.
He looks to be the type that could actually hit when it matters. I would rather trade Swisher, Tex. or Arod, none of them hits in the playoffs.
He looks it, huh? Well, you’ve got me convinced.
Padres said they had four offers they could have worked with, they simply liked the Reds’ best. Wonder if the yanks made an offer.
If you wanna talk blockbuster trades, I’d go with Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes, Dellin Betances, Gary Sanchez, and Eduardo Nunez to the Mariners for King Felix, and Trayvon Robinson, who could spend the year as a 4th outfielder before maybe being a cheap replacement for Swisher next year if the Yanks r truly gonna try and cut payroll…..The Mariners would get 2 starters, a DH, a SS, and a future catcher, and we would have 1 of the best 1-2-3 starters in the league, with CC, King felix, and Nova. Throw in AJ and Sweaty Freddy 4 and 5, and i’d take that rotation everyday over anyone else’s……. And you still have Banuelos waiting in AAA for a late season call up if he’s smoking ‘em in AAA and AJ or Freddy are bombing,(no suprise), or to start 2013 in the rotation witch will most likely be minus AJ and Freddy. Throw in a cheap number 5 every off season, and there is your rotation for the next half decade……
I feel like everyone’s given up on Hughes. IMO he’s going to have a monster season next year, we saw his good stuff in the playoffs, and that game against the sawx when he got babip’d. He through mid 90s throughout both of those games, went with the curve and then mixed in a change up and cutter when he needed to. I still think he has TOR potential. Why all the hate? I’ve had dead arm (what Hughes had) basically, if feels like your arms falling off all the time, you can barely throw the ball, and when you do, there’s nothing behind it. This is a guy who used to have a ton of life on his fastball, come 2012, I expect to see that a lot more.