The asking price for John Danks
ByMonday (5pm ET by Mike): Joel Sherman reports that the Yankees wouldn’t give up either Montero or Banuelos for Danks, but the ChiSox do like some other pieces in the Yankees farm system. If the price comes down, the two sides shouldn’t have much trouble finding a trade match if they’re so inclined. Interestingly enough, Sherman (as well as Sweeny Murti) also mentions that some in the organization believe Mason Williams is the team’s top prospect. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it’s not a completely insane thought.
Sunday (3:45pm ET by Joe): The White Sox appear willing to trade left-handed hurler John Danks, but that doesn’t mean their asking price is reasonable. Late last week a report appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, in which a source described negotiations: “Kenny [Williams] asked for everyone on our roster in return.” Today ESPN’s Jayson Stark shares a similar tale from Yankeeland. “The Yankees, for example, have told other clubs that they were asked for both Jesus Montero and their top pitching prospect, Manny Banuelos.” Since it’s doubtful that the Yankees would trade even one of those players for Danks, who reaches free agency after next season, talks clearly haven’t progressed very far. We could, however, see the Sox come down into a more reasonable range this week at the Winter Meetings.
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Off the top my head, i can’t even think of one player on the CWS that I would trade Jesus or ManBan for. I am not even sure I could build a package of CWS players for those two. If I am not forgetting anyone obvious, the CWS really have no one of very high value on their team.
Maybe if Kenny Williams can somehow buy a time machine on ebay and bring Frank Thomas when he was in his prime back to the future…..
haahah…
what about Kuroda if they can find a way to sign him to a one year deal? Wouldn’t that be a better option that giving up a top prospect or two since next year’s FA class is so good.
YUUUUUP
He has stated a desire to remain with LAD or return to Japan.
But LAD have waved goodbye to him. So he might look at other teams, but I think he prefers the West.
Clearly they can ask for whatever they want, but nobody in their right mind is going to give them their two best prospects (at the level of Montero and ManBam) for Danks. It’s early so it doesn’t hurt to ask. Will be waiting on the trip back to reality and see what their offer is then…
The Yankees have no pressing needs. Unless an asking price for a player is virtually discounted, pass.
Hahahah good one buddy. A rotation of CC, Nova, Garcia, Hughes and AJ Bum-nett will surely get us to the promised land next October in dominating fashion.
We had a similar one staff last year won 97 games (and didn’t try to win any of our last 6 games) and were eliminated from the playoffs due to offensive failures not pitching. We have five starters in our system other than our starting 5 that have a legit shot and becoming major league starters and we can also re-sign Bartolo and several other low cost options over the winter.
Rich in NJ is 100% correct. We have no pressing needs.
…..and getting fleeced in order to acquire an extra starter, which offers no guarantee of anything, would be even worse. I’ll gladly take my chances with the rotation you describe above rather than make a bad trade.
Poor Kenny Williams…..He’s trying to extract revenge on Ninja-Cashman for the Swisher trade. If I was cashman I would try to re-sign Betemit, Marquez, and Johnny Nunez and trade them again to the Dumb Soxs for Danks lol
If only we had Wilson Betemit
Kuroda sounds like he is looking for a 1 yr deal of 12-13mil. That sounds like a pretty solid option. If that is truly the case, he could be off the market soon. Its not the number 2 they are looking for, but a much more sure thing than AJ or Hughes and no risk or committment.
On the lighter side of the News….Manny Ramirez has unretired and looking for a job. He has to serve a 50 game suspension when he signs. Will someone really sign this guy?
Thanks Man, I’ll let my grandma know. She’s looking for someone to help her clean and oil her scooter. She also needs help with her cane and also with her dog Monchie.
I believe it’s actually a 100 game suspension, he already served a 50 game a few years ago with the Dodgers.
Nah they worked out a deal….since he didnt play last year, they cut it to 50
Nice! Break the rules, take your ball & go home, then come back n a year and get 1/2 off… I love this country!!!
Not worth one, let alone two A prospects. Romine and Pena for Danks would be the highest I would go, I know my proposal sucks.
Think they’d settle for Betances plus someone not named Jesus or Manny?
Yes, but I’d pass on that.
My man-crush on Betances weeps.
Maybe if it’s Gary Sanchez and/or Mason Williams… and the White Sox happen to be really high on those guys. Plus maybe a lower ceiling piece or two. Tough to say how a specific team feels about certain high ceiling/high risk guys like Betances, Sanchez, or Williams.
Personally I think that they will wait to be blown away or just try to keep Danks themselves… but I could be totally wrong. If they’re shopping him maybe they are motivated to move him and will have to adjust their price. For a young stud like Danks I imagine another team will come up with better than the Betances/Romine sort of deals most commenters here are mentioning.
He certainly might come down from that asking price, but why is Kenny Williams trading his young stud LHSP for less than a mind-blowing return? I don’t know their financial situation, but Chicago is a huge market and they throw money around pretty freely. It would be tough to have given Dunn, Konerko, and Rios all that money only to give away your stud young LHSP because you can’t re-sign him. There will be arb-raises/extensions and plenty of holes to fill, but the White Sox are potentially shedding plenty of salary in the next few years and only have $65 million committed for 2013. There’s an argument to trade Danks to fill holes cheaper (or certainly if he doesn’t want to sign as extension), but I just don’t see an argument from Chicago’s side to give the guy away for Betances+ as most here seem to suggest. I find that to be a real Yankees’ homer package.
I’m not saying that the Yankees should bite at all… but I don’t expect Williams to trade a guy like Danks he can probably extend (or at least try to) without breaking a sweat for less than a top prospect. We all love Manny’s upside, but from as objective a view as I can take I just don’t think it’s that likely he averages 4 fWAR per season from ages 23 to 26. Danks has already done that and figures to only get better at this age.
I see a difference between his value to the White Sox and his value to the Yankees (or at least their fans on this blog) that I don’t think it likely to be resolved. The White Sox hand would have to be forced to give him away–no higher bidders and absolutely not re-signing him… and even then they can wait till mid-season and hope something emerges–or the Yankees would have to give up more than most fans here seem willing to part with. My guess is that either some team comes pretty close to meeting their demands (as was the case when we thought the Rockies were asking 2x Ubaldo’s price) or the White Sox will just keep him.
You think Williams looks at fWAR? Hah
I think he knows that Danks is a young stud and probably at least has some people under him who do look at fWAR.
I think he knows that prospects are volatile and proven MLB performers less so.
And I don’t know that he feels anything resembling the urgency he felt with Swisher. There’s certainly an argument to move Danks for the $aving$ + prospects… but there’s also an argument to just keep your young stud LHSP entering his theoretical prime. Someone who doesn’t look at fWAR, in my opinion, is more likely to understand and go with the latter. The former requires an understanding of opportunity cost.
I think part of the thing is that Danks won’t extend. At least that is what I have heard, could be wrong. But I believe he has rejected a few extensions and things haven’t gone any where. The lack of extension and the cost are the two driving forces here. Same thing happens with a lot of teams.
Perhaps he doesn’t like Chicago/the White Sox, but I have to imagine he would extend for the right price and the White Sox have not met it yet. But I also imagine that they can meet it if they decide to.
My thinking is that the White Sox are a huge market team that can extend him (might mean splurging) or just outbid everyone in free agency (or replace him with similar if next season’s class is 1/2 what’s expected). Especially if Buehrle walks this off-season. They’re also a year removed from an 88 win season, so they can contend in 2012 if they catch a few breaks. Dunn, Rios, and Pierre were three line-up spots below replacement by 4 fWAR.
Therefore they have more leverage than a team you know isn’t going to extend the guy or compete that needs to get value at some point. They can at least wait until the trade deadline to see if he can’t have a bounce-back season that a desperate team jumps on.
“Perhaps he doesn’t like Chicago/the White Sox, but I have to imagine he would extend for the right price and the White Sox have not met it yet. But I also imagine that they can meet it if they decide to.”
I think the whole point is that they have decided not to…
I think that’s a huge assumption. That they’ve offered him for two top prospects in a deal they surely knew the Yankees would reject does not mean they’re actively shopping him. Could just as easily be feeling out the market or using his trade value as leverage with his agent.
I don’t think this trade is a match (at this time) because Chicago would need a couple of Banuelos and Montero type talents to justify trading Danks and we would need more than a Danks type talent (for only 2 years mind you) to justify letting go of Banuelos and Montero. Unless it’s for a legit number one I hope the Yankees do not start letting go of any of their top system talent. I think come July the Cubs or Sox are not in the race the prices for both Garza and Danks would come down considerably. We can afford to wait until then and at that point I hope the Yankees are in a postion that we don’t even need them.
Agreed for the most part. I don’t know that Garza or Danks’ prices will come down mid-season, though. Those are both potential long-term pieces playing in the 3rd biggest market in the country. Perhaps Danks makes it clear he is testing free agency and his price comes down… but Garza still has another year of control so I don’t know why Theo would rush it.
So why are they talking about trading him and not about extending him?
Patrick very good point. I didn’t think of that.
I am not Kenny Williams and I assume you are not either. So I don’t know if they are talking to him about an extension. Very possible that they are.
They are not talking about giving the guy away from what this very article says… they are talking about trading him for two of the better prospects in baseball. It’s something like the Yankees offering Granderson for Kemp AND Kershaw and you wondering why they hate Granderson so much.
All I mentioned is that the rumors that are coming out are about them trading him. Not a peep about offering or talking about an extension. Usually a team finds out if they can extend a player they still want on their team before they shop him around. It’s odd if they want to keep him and are seemingly more focused on trading him then extending him.
Rumors are not at all reliable.
Their price comes down mid season for several obvious reasons:
1) Less time (value) with the new team
2) Loss of the comp picks under the new CBA – you don’t get them for players acquired mid-year who then leave as a FA… this is I think a very underlooked part of the CBA which will really affect rental trades.
3) The market will be smaller… maybe you get lucky and get a team that’s really desperate, but before the season and before rosters are set you have lots of teams that can make space for him, flip other starters, etc…. come mid year the market is determined more by injury/ineffeciveness. You also risk having other teams who don’t feel like they have a shot looking to possibly unload their pitchers as well.
Danks is a rental… you can keep saying long term piece, but he’s not. Who know what he’ll do in FA and even Kenny Williams has to acknowledge the possibility he leaves when evaluating trading him and can’t assume they will resign him if they are willing to pay him enough.
The price can be higher is the demand is higher, i.e. a team is competing and desperate for a SP. That team might even be the Yankees if everything after CC falls apart.
“Kenny Williams has to acknowledge the possibility he leaves when evaluating trading him and can’t assume they will resign him if they are willing to pay him enough.”
Kenny Williams doesn’t have to do anything and has proven that countless times.
Kenny Williams has also probably spoken to Danks’ agent on the subject, which is why I don’t see why you pretend to know what is going on behind closed doors. It’s possible that Danks has told them he will never re-sign and it’s possible he’s told them that he would love to re-sign… we have no idea.
He could also get injured…. what’s your point?
The most PROBABLE outcome is his value drops trading him mid-year vs trading him now (for the reasons I gave above)…. do you disagree or are you just changing the argument?
I’m not saying it is impossible or there are no scenarios where his value could go up between now and July, but it is more likely to go down then to go up… (and with the new CBA rule and the impact of not getting comp picks that alone is a huge factor in his mid-year trade value)
I suggest you look at what Cliff Lee got both in the 1 year deal with SEA/PHI and the mid year deal with SEA/TEX (and the yankees reported offer)… though in fairness Amaro Jr is a fool and got a bit fleeced in the first trade – but that is for a pitcher who is on a whole different level than Danks and was on a ridiculously good contract price for one year.
While I’m sure you’ll point to age… since there is only 1 year of control on each, the age is irrelevant unless a team thought Lee was going to fall off a cliff (no pun intended) after the trade.
There’s a reason he’s being shopped, and this is not a Justin Upton type scenario where a GM floats the name out and if a team makes a compelling offer maybe you get serious about dealing him. Kenny Williams is not shoppping him because he thinks Danks is a long term piece and he’s got a handle on his ability to re-sign him as a free agent. And yes I’m speculating… much like your speculation that he has probably spoken to Danks’ agent about next year. I don’t pretend to know, like YOU, I’m speculating…. I think the wording “has to know” was a poor choice of words on my part… would it be better if I use the word “probably” like you do?
“The most PROBABLE outcome is his value drops trading him mid-year vs trading him now (for the reasons I gave above)…. do you disagree or are you just changing the argument?”
It depends what his value is right now… and since I’m not Kenny Williams I have no idea what he’s being offered. If teams are looking at last season’s performance and low-balling the White Sox then I think it would be pretty easy for him to raise his value through a bounce-back season… and I think there’s a better than 50% chance he bounces back to have a strong season.
I also think the marginal difference between a full season and 1/2 a season is not that great. Once you get to the half way point… the first half is a sunk cost. The ultimate success of your season depends on how you do for the rest of the season. You can’t go back and win more games in the first half. You can win more games in the second half to have a better end result (playoffs, deeper in playoffs).
“I suggest you look at what Cliff Lee got both in the 1 year deal with SEA/PHI and the mid year deal with SEA/TEX (and the yankees reported offer)…”
I would suggest you do the same… he was worth a fraction of Roy Halladay entering the season (had to be packaged with top prospects), and then was still worth a top 5 prospect in baseball at mid-season. His value didn’t drop off a cliff half way through the season.
Seattle and Philly both were also determined to move him… they had little leverage to set a floor and say that if you don’t meet our demands we’re just going to walk away. I don’t believe Chicago has to be motivated to move Danks. They might be, but they might not be.
“There’s a reason he’s being shopped, and this is not a Justin Upton type scenario where a GM floats the name out and if a team makes a compelling offer maybe you get serious about dealing him.”
How on earth do you know this isn’t an Upton situation? He’s floating him for Montero AND Banuelos… based on the evidence we have that appears at this time to be EXACTLY what Williams is doing.
And I am not suggesting that Danks is worth a Montero level prospect… Jesus was pretty consistently considered a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. He was struggling at the time of the trade, but still a beast.
There’s a lot of room between Jesus Montero headlining a deal and Austin Romine or Adam Warren headlining a deal.
Sign kuroda or darvish, Andrew jones and Eric Chavez. Call it an offseason
agrred thank you very much.
THIS ALL DAY (Kuroda over Darvish save the money for next year)
SO you think someone is giving up something close to a top 5 prospect and a top 15 prospect for 1 year of Danks?
I do not, personally… but I do think a team might give up at least one guy the White Sox find comparable to those two. Fans here generally thought two of Jesus, Manny, Betances for Ubaldo was ridiculous… but the Indians pretty much traded just that for him. I don’t think Danks will command 2 top prospects, but I wouldn’t trade him for less than one (or comparable) if I’m Kenny Williams.
It all depends how Kenny Williams and his staff view those guys. There’s a positive and negative view an individual or team can take with any prospect.
If they think Montero can’t C, he only has so much value to a team that already has Dunn and Konerko on somewhat bloated deals (maybe they can move Konerko, but not Dunn IMO)… and that’s mostly trade value short-term.
If they look at height as much as some do… they might be really skeptical of Manny. Not to mention his 2011 control problems. Manny was a top 20 guy going into last season, but not necessarily at this moment.
Maybe they see Betances as most likely to be a reliever (the control is certainly a problem and staying healthy has been a problem), Romine as a back-up C (I see that as most likely), are really scared of Sanchez’ passed balls and attitude (I am)… now we’re getting down to mid-to-back end starters in AAA and high upside guys in short season. So those might be the only guys that interest them to headline a deal. Especially if they would just re-sign Danks if they don’t deal him.
It’s possible that even if they do like the Yankees prospects, they like some prospects from a different team ranked lower by BA better.
I dont know, Ubaldo had what 3 years of control left, at the minimum 2 and at the time was thought of as an ace type pitcher. I dont think anyone considers Danks and ace and Danks only has 1 year left. I doubt anyone trades one their top prospects for him. Personally I feel giving up Bentences at this point is too much. I agree with your premise though, there really isnt a huge reason for the sox to trade him, unless they get over paid.
Yep. The key is the time Ubaldo had under team control and the fact that correctly or incorrectly, around the league I think he was a much bigger deal. He was like 10-0 to start 2010 and had a great year. Danks has been good but never quite on that 2010 Ubaldo level. And his best year came back in 2008.
We’re not talking about what the Yankees or another team should pay for Danks… but what it would take for the White Sox to deal him. My original point was that I think the White Sox will want more than the Yankees will give. So there might just be no trade. Perhaps, though, (like with the Yankees’ Ubaldo negotiations) another team will come in and outbid the Yankees by a wide margin. At that point the Yankees have to decide whether to up the ante or fold. I don’t think Danks will cost what Ublaldo did (half, maybe 2/3), but that the situations are somewhat comparable: Yankees want pitchers X, team demands world from Yankees, Yankees haggle… mystery team outbids Yankees (or team walks away).
At the very least, I think the Yankees will have to give up a package that makes Yankees fans uneasy. If they don’t give up anything we’re upset about losing, the Sox probably didn’t get anything that they’re excited about getting. Why do they trade their young stud for nothing exciting? Why does no other team bid something good on a 26 year old LHSP with Danks’ track record?
Yeah, Sox can just walk away. Like the Rockies could just walk away.
Indians traded not only one top prospect for Ubaldo, but two… and there were public questions about his health and performance at the time. Danks has been an ace a couple of seasons (10th in fWAR in 2008, tied for 21 in 2010), so I do think someone would give up one top prospect. I think Montero AND Banuelos is ludicrous, but Banuelos as a centerpiece I don’t think is.
Ubaldo Jiminez the three years before he was traded: 4.3, 5.9, 6.4 (16.5 fWAR)
Danks last 3 years: 2.9, 4.3, 3.2 (10.4WAR)… you might notice that Danks best year in the last 3 years was Ubaldo’s worst at the time he was traded
Jiminez salary the year he was traded: 4.2mil with 2 club options at under 14mil total
Danks….. ? probably at least 9-10mil after getting 6 mil this past year, no options/control beyond this year
Except for actual performance/quality, contract and team control the analogy seems pretty solid….
Except that I said Danks might return one half of what Ubaldo there was a reason for you to waste both of our time…
Except the differences I described is nothing like 1/2 the value… but why let those pesky facts get in the way?
In short look at some actual data instead of spitballing it.
Do a simple surplus value analysis to show one is 1/2 the value of the other – you are the one that threw the analogy out there with NOTHING to back it up. A simple projected WAR vs salary (to assess surplus value) over their respective years of team control might help with the whole “one half as valuable” assessment (hint…. it will be a lot less than 1/2)
Thanks for wasting everyone’s time with your absurd analogy with no supporting data (which might have prevented you from making that absurd analogy in the first place)
I disagree.
Besides his actual value for the next season, there are other factors impacting his value. If you don’t want to acknowledge them that’s your call.
There is a value in the certainty of getting to extend Danks now (and a team can make the deal contingent on an extension) rather than hoping that the supply of elite SP is greater than the demand next off-season… only to be left in the cold bidding for Danks and Greinke with 7 other teams when Hamels and Cain get extended.
There is an artificial floor the White Sox can impose. If you don’t deal more than Danks’ value to them back… they can just walk away. This is a huge market team a year removed from an 88 win season that sported three line-up spots below replacement last season: DH, CF, LF. This is a team that can possibly contend this season and can most likely afford to keep Danks… so they don’t have much reason to give him away without a decent return. You can think Kenny Williams wants to give Danks away, I can disagree.
“There is a value in the certainty of getting to extend Danks now”
A) What is this value? This is a Santana type situation… pay prospects and then pay massive salary. I’m curious to see how much value you think this is? Is it worth an extra B prospect? C prospect?
B) What is the certainty of getting extended….if you could provide any link, rumor, random internet comment that Danks is willing to do this it would be appreciated…
Sure there is value in it… There would also be value in knowing Danks is willing to sign his next deal for $5 mil per year…the problem is we have no idea if either of these 2 things is actually going to happen.
C) How do you know Williams is willing to do a deal with this contingency (or as you like to say: You’re not Kenny Williams, how do you know what Kenny William is willing to do?)
“There is an artificial floor the White Sox can impose. If you don’t deal more than Danks’ value to them back… they can just walk away”
Agree 100%… the absolute floor is the comp picks and whatever surplus value Danks provides over his contract price this year. Anything below that point and it doesn’t make sense to do the deal… obviously the White Sox floor will be somewhere above this level. It could be irrationally high. What you also should realize is if a team offers a package better than the value of the picks the White Sox would get if Danks signs elsewhere next year and the White Sox decline they also risk something walking away… it’s not like they can shop him next offseason…
The absolute floor can be rather easily assessed and quantified and if you actually bothered to do it, you’d be surprised at how that relates to what the Rockies got in their trade (it’s MUCH MUCH less than 1/2 of that haul)… again this is that absolute floor, not necessarily the White Sox floor
Instead of doing this you have buried your head in the sand and arbitrarily decide that anything less than 1/2 of what the Rockies got is “giving him away”…
My point continues to be that Danks’ ACTUAL value (note not perceieved value to the White Sox) is much less than 1/2 of Ubaldo’s value when he was traded. Danks might end up getting roughly 1/2 of Ubaldo’s haul, Williams might expect that or arbitrarily set his floor there… but don’t confuse that with Danks ACTUAL relative value compared to Ubaldo. If you are interested in how to determine this I’d be happy to walk you through it but I kind of get the feeling that you have no interest in analyzing the relative values and have simply made your mind up that anything less than 1/2 of the Ubaldo deal is giving Danks away.
“This is a huge market team a year removed from an 88 win season that sported three line-up spots below replacement last season: DH, CF, LF. This is a team that can possibly contend this season and can most likely afford to keep Danks”
And this is a team that just traded away their closer and is rumored to be shopping Quentin, Danks and Floyd…. As you have astutely pointed out in your compelling arguments, I’m not actually Kenny Williams, but if I try to channel him, I see that these actions and rumors are not consistent with a team who’s first priority is contending this year.
That move didn’t work out for the Tribe though. Just sayin.
And Ubaldo is a bigger name than Danks, don’t forget
It wasn’t one top prospect for Ubaldo, though… it was two. That’s why I think one for Danks since he’s closer to free agency. And perhaps it’s not one top prospect but 2 or 3 or 4 players with that sort of combined value to the White Sox… would just expect a top prospect to headline.
The Rockies could have walked away if the Indians didn’t meet their demands, and the White Sox can do the same.
But if the White Sox do walk away, what do they get?
To keep Danks or replace him with comparable through FA. At some point the prospect return is so low that simply having him for another year and either re-signing or getting the two picks is more valuable.
If by Montero and Banuelos you mean Romine and Mitchell you got a deal!
Montero and Banuelos? Hysterical. Warren, Romine and Mesa, and now get out of my site before you make me angry.
I am too busy watching football, but I don’t remember pitchers with one year or less left getting insane packages. With pitchers with only one year left, what kinda package would be good comps?
I could totally see the Yankees giving up Montero and Banuelos for one year of Danks.
I hope you’re drunk
I hope you learn sarcasm haha.
Kenny Williams must have got to Dallas early and started drinking early to think he’ll deal Danks for Montero and Banuelos.
Wait until he sobers up tomorrow.
What a joke… Why on earth would we ever entertain something like this? Montero is going to be a ELITE hitter, a All-Star, Most likely Going to put up Great career numbers and be a absolute game changing superstar for a long, long, time. And we we should trade that, PLUS our best pitching prospect For John Fucking Danks? People need to get off the Danks train. Dude is not not even close to the ELITE level as a pitcher. Call me when their is a deal in place to send us Josh johsnon, King Felix, Tim Lincecum, Because that’s the level of return we would need to get back if were going to be trading away Montero. This guy will end his career in the conversation as being one of the best hitting catchers this game has ever seen. Kenny williams, and everyone on the john danks banwaggon need to drop the crack pipe and understand that this would go down as the worst trade in sports history when its all said and done. Danks will dissapoint, while montero will spend 15 years in chicago working on his resume for cooperstown.
Thank you sir. Couldn’t have said it any better.
And he can catch as well as Posada too!
i would be pissed if any of the top prospect guys were traded, cashman has kept his word on not trading away the farm. I wanna see what the kids can do…can he really just trade them after he said time and time again he wouldnt?
You’re my favorite pitch in baseball.
Your prospect hugging kind of makes my skin crawl, but I can’t be mad at a splitter.
I remember when Yankees fans wouldn’t offer Hughes or Joba for Johan Santana because they were such awesome prospects. Can someone remind me how those prospects panned out?
Danks is a 5 WAR pitcher (4.8 in 2010, 4.8 in 2009, 6.4 in 2008) with a down year in 2011. Last Year Cliff Lee was 6.9, Garza 2.9, Matt Cain 3.9, Felix Hernandez 4.7. Just to give you players to compare him to.
Maybe you can remind us how santana turned out? Not so well.
Don’t get me wrong, you have a point about people overvaluing Hughes, myself included. But that would not have been a very good trade for the Yankees, just not for the reason we thought. In other words, both sides of that debate were wrong. Yay!
Agreed that trade didn’t work out. Like you said, my point was that fans over value prospects. I remember Mets fans saying they didn’t want to give up Milledge or Martinez.
Yanks wouldn’t give up Hughes or Joba for Halladay then traded Kennedy who was considered the third best prospect. He won 20 games while Joba melted down and blew out his arm and Hughes turned into a sissy who can’t finish off hitters, is out of shape, and has a bad back. Man Ban is a total crap shoot and if the yanks could get a F Heranndez for he and Montero I’m all for it. Prospects, especially pitchers are tough to guage. That said they have far more trade value than Danks, but put King Felix in the equation and I’d throw in Betances too.
This is incorrect, they wouldn’t trade Joba AND Hughes plus for Halladay. Toronto was trying to get more since it was in the AL East. Kennedy probably wouldn’t have been as good in the AL East, but that is just an opinion.
The rest is just too stupid to comment on. Good day
The Mariners likely wouldn’t take less than Montero, Betances, Banuelos, Nova, and Nunez IF he was ever made available. Which he isn’t.
Even that’s not a good enough package. You’d have to throw in Cano.
Your sounding like the Cowboys FO trading Walker to the Vikings back in the 80′s.
When you look at what The Jays got for Doc & what the M’s gave for Lee and add in the realization that Danks isn’t half the pitcher…your data should spit out something like;
1) Hughes with a Warren/Phelps/Mitchell type.
2) Betances and a Liard/Pena type.
3) DBich and a choice of an Almonte.
4) Burnett & Adams but we have to take Dunn.
I never said I would trade those guys for Felix, I said that’s what they would demand to trade him.
People please read…
And neither did I, however the point remains that it is insane to make a trade like that.
Also, drop the attitude, T.O.
I know you didn’t say you would do it. It just seemed like you read it as a trade proposal.
Obviously it’s crazy, it’s way too much for anybody really, even Felix. I just see no way they trade him for less, since they have no intentions of trading him. He’s not on the block.
What attitude? Your inferencing something that isn’t there. I’ve just had like 10 posts misread which I had to re-clarify. It wasn’t directed at you but just in general.
I would never trade them Cano and all those prospects for Felix. I’m saying that’s probably what it would take – especially considering the potential animosity between Jack Z. and the Yankees.
Also, we’re talking about Felix, not Danks.
Where are you getting your WAR?
Fangraphs (who I trust more than bWAR) has him at 5.2 in 2008, 2.9 in 2009, 4.3 in 2010, 3.2 in 2011. Which gives him a 3.9 average, which seems much closer to his skill level and production.
I’d be sad if the “some in the organization think Mason Williams is their top prospect” talk is to build him up for a sale. I f’ing love toolsy CFs.
It’s a bit early for Mason Williams to be the top prospect of the organization, but there’s certainly tools and potential. He puts on another great year or so though and then the talk can start up.
please yankees do not trade williams…i need to have another homegrown black superstar to worship after #2 retires. first austin jackson, now williams? cumon, please. This guy is going to gain muscle and club homers one day.
Umm, Mason ain’t homegrown.
He was drafted by the Yankees…. That’s what hgme grown means.
Before the prospect hugging gets amped, let me say right now that if K. Williams is willing to trade Danks and take a Mason Williams + 2 “B” prospects (Warren + Romine) … wow. Cashman can’t pass that up.
Williams is the top prospect? Yeah, and Austin Romine is a ML starting catcher.
Romine is going to be a starting C in the majors. He’ll be a weak hitting, catch and throw catcher starting on another team. Defense matters more at the position and he’s got average defense right now, which could improve to above average.
There are a lot of good defensive Cs who are back-ups. I think Romine can be a starter, but I also think he might just be a back-up.
It’s possible, but I think he will find a gig somewhere as a starter. He’s not Molina with the glove, but I don’t think he’s Cervelli with the bat.
Cervelli is a solid hitter for a C… I don’t think Romine’s much better than Cervelli in the likeliest case (has more potential probably). Cevelli’s 2011 MLB OPS is just under Romine’s AA OPS and he’s only 2 years older: .719 vs. .729 (.710 on the MiLB season).
Romine’s been a .725 OPS guy in AA for two straight years. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve going forward, but I’m not betting on it.
He’s got more power potential than Frankie. Cervelli is a single digit HR guy, I think Romine can develop into a 10-15 HR guy as a starter. He’ll be a low average and OBP guy, but with Martin this year there’s value in that if you play defense. He won’t hit for power like Martin did, but you get the reference.
Bottom line is that I think Romine’s most-likely case is somewhere around Cervelli’s overall value (solid back-up to weak starter). Probably a bit better, but not a ton. Not that they are the same player with the same strengths and weaknesses.
I also think Cervelli could be a starting C on a bunch of teams, btw, but he’s basically at that level where he’s interchangeable with dozens of guys… you don’t know who will be better one particular season so they don’t have a ton of value.
We’ll have to disagree again then. I think his ceiling is higher than Frankie’s, maybe not tons higher, but higher. I think his floor is closer to Cervelli than his ceiling.
He’s going to probably hit with more power and I think he already has a better glove. If the glove improves he’s a for sure starter.
I don’t think Cervelli could be a starter, and I don’t think other teams value him as someone who can start. Clearly the Pirates only valued him as a backup.
We are only disagreeing because you are not reading my comments.
I specifically said his ceiling, in my opinion, is higher than Cervelli’s. Ceiling is not the same as “most likely case scenario.”
Look around the league at all the starting Cs and tell me again Cervelli can’t start. I’m not saying he’s good, I’m saying starting Cs are bad.
You have this weird complex that I’m not reading your post… I’ve read every word of every post directed at me.
I think his floor is what Cervelli is, I think his ceiling is quite a bit higher than Cervelli’s.
The problem is you are misunderstanding what I am writing.
Cervelli can’t start.
I’m not saying Cervelli can’t start because C are good, I’m saying this because he’s back up level.
Cervelli’s defense isn’t strong and his bat isn’t strong. You need one or the other to stand out to start, he is subpar at both. He’s adequate at backing up because he can call a good game and bring a spark to a team, but he doesn’t resonate with me as a starter.
You disagree, what else is new. You seem to not understand that it’s OK if we disagree.
Again… I agree that Romine’s upside is higher. However, most prospects (the vast majority) do not hit their upside.
Cervelli is bad, but a lot of bad Cs are starting around MLB… therefore, I think Cervelli can start. I don’t think he is anyone’s ideal solution. I think that if he happened to be cut by the Yankees and latch on in the right place he could start over some of the crap starters out there or split time at least. I have also specifically said in this discussion that his value is limited because he’s not much better or worse than dozens of other Cs. So in the right situation he might start, but a team is unlikely to give up much via trade for the privilege of having him start for them. (Then again Cervelli is only 2 years older than Romine and still has some potential for growth just like Romine does.)
Williams is a really good prospect. If you take Jesus out of the “prospect” ranks, I don’t see any position prospect who is obviously better than Williams.
I would still have Banuelos ahead of him right now. If he continues to have control problems and Williams advances another level without a regression I could change my mind.
As a fan I agree, but if I were an owner I’d like my front office to be able to project guys forward with some accuracy. If he’s going to be a better prospect in a year I’d like to know now, since in trading him you are trading his future rather than present (I realize this can’t be done perfectly, but I’m just looking for some accuracy). I can look online for free to see what a stock is selling for right now, but if I’m paying a fund manager millions I’m looking for a somewhat accurate projection of the future… not paying him or her to tell me what I can look up for free.
It’s also possible the person meant “best position prospect” and the position part got lost in translation.
And whether he’s the absolute best, 2nd best, 3rd best… guy is a great prospect.
Banuelos has a high upside himself and is further along. These rankings are not based off the fact that Manny is closer to the major leagues, it’s because you have more tangible evidence of his growth.
Mason only has one year in the system, it was a great year, but you can’t say that’s his true potential. You have to have more footage, more ABs, and more time with the kid to evaluate him. Any scout who says they can grasp the exact nature of prospect in one year is arrogant, and likely will miss something thinking he knows all.
Do you read anything I write?
Hahah yes…
You want someone to project a guy down the road, which is what I’m doing with Williams and Banuelos. Right now I think Banuelos projects better since he has done well at high levels. If Williams tears up higher levels I’ll re-evaluate him at that time, but right now I have to knock some off of what he did this year as you project him up the ladder.
Would be nice to trade the Warren/Phelps/Mitchell types. We don’t need their services long term. A team like CWS might…
If we got Danks for that, I would be thrilled. Seriously, to get Danks , It’s gonna cost Romine, Betances, and Warren.
Just like they don’t need Ivan Nova’s services long-term? Certainly I would trade them at good value, but they certainly could be useful to the Yankees long-term.
Trade them in the right deal, but I don’t think they should trade them just because. Freddy’s shoulder gives out (again) and Hughes flames out, suddenly the Warrens and Phelpses of the world look mighty important.
Just because someone is not the sexy name you read about on blogs like this over and over, it does not mean they can’t become solid MLB contributors. Those three guys have as much of a chance to help the MLB rotation that Banuelos and Betances do, especially the former two.
That’s because he went to Bernie Williams school for base running!!!
I say trade for Ted Lilly and Andre Ethier… Then trade a package of Swisher, Nunez, Betances, and Noesi for Matt Cain
What are you going to do with the gun your holding to Seaben’s head? Because that’s the only way he’s trading Cain for that.
1. Why is trading for Lilly and Ethier necessary?
2. Giants wouldn’t do that.
Danks would not be a difference maker, plain and simple.
Yes he would be, plain and simple.
Not enough to warrant relinquishing a top tier prospect.
Without much argument, Danks could slide right after CC at the #2 spot. As much as i’m a fan of Matt Garza, Cashman will probably never get Theo down from Banuelos + …
Now, i’d trade Banuelos for Garza. But, that’s just me and a few others. Danks isn’t as good as Garza, but Danks is not bad at all.
So what would a fair and realistic trade for Danks look like?
If I were the White Sox I’d ask for Romine, Betances, and Phelps. Not sure the Yankees would pull the trigger on it, but it’d be worth thinking about.
I’m not the biggest Danks fan, but I think Betances ends up in the pen so I might be inclined to do it.
I disagree that the White Sox would take that… maybe if they really have no intention of re-signing Danks, but even then I think they’d get a more attractive offer from another team.
(And especially if they share your view of Betances as a reliever.)
I think there is a good chance that would be among the handful of best offers simply because he only has one year left on his deal. I know you don’t view Romine as a starter however which changes how you view the package. If they view Romine as a starter and value Betances’ upside I could see them doing it.
I assume they wouldn’t share my view that Betances is a reliever. If they took the deal it would be because they value the high upside Betances possess more than his low floor.
Team control and salary certainly play into trade value heavily, but I think that’s overstating it. He’s a 26 year old who a team can sign to an extension (can make the deal contingent on that if they choose) and not have to worry about taking their chances in free agency. There’s a lot of value in that certainty to me.
“If they view Romine as a starter and value Betances’ upside I could see them doing it.”
If they value any of the Yankees prospects at their ceilings I could see them trading for them… but that doesn’t mean that they do.
I just find it odd to say that you think Betances is a reliever, but you expect professional personnel people to think he’s an ace. Either you are calling yourself or them stupid.
I can’t say how they value any player in our system with a straight face. I’m not Kenny Williams, that’s why you have to say it’s a possibility.
I never said they WOULD do that trade I said IF I WAS THEM it’s what I’d ask for, and that it’s possible they would accept.
I’m not working in absolutes here. You can’t and be taken seriously.
It’s not either/or. Betances clearly has a lot of upside, but his floor is already incredibly low. Some people will view him more optimistically than me, some will view him even less optimistically than me. No two people view the world with the same eyes.
Betances has a lot of flaws in his mechanics and he needs to further develop his change to have a chance in the rotation, but those are big hurdles. Randy Johsnon had similar problems once. I don’t think he will figure it out enough to be a starter, but maybe they do.
I’m calling no one stupid here. It’s not my style.
Not calling anyone stupid, but implying it.
You don’t think Betances will ever be a starting pitcher, but if you were Kenny Williams you’d trade your stud young starter with 16.3 career fWAR through his 26 year old season for him? I don’t think you’d actually do that if you were Kenny Williams and your job depended on the outcome, I think you’d only do that because you are a Yankee fan pretending to be Kenny Williams. (And if you or I were a White Sox fan pretending to be Cashman we’d probably trade at least Manny if not Montero and Manny for Danks.)
I realize you can’t ready Kenny Williams’ mind, I’m just saying that I don’t see much point in speculating on whether he likes the the prospects you don’t particularly like.
Betances, Mason Williams, and then a “B” level pitching prospect (Warren? Phelps? Marshall?)
Srsly , if the Yanks get to keep Banuelos in the fold, and still pull off a trade for Danks, then who could really be against it. Montero is simply off the table for anyone not a current/former Cy Young person.
I wouldn’t even move Betances let alone Betances AND Williams in a Danks deal. I’d rather just roll the dice on Darvish.
I think Betances has enough down side to move for Danks. I wouldn’t move Williams and Betances, but Betances and Romine would work for me.
Objectively, I’d have to agree, but subjectively I just can’t get excited about Danks.
Kenny Williams is just negotiating. He’s gotta start high, right? Similarly, I would imagine that Cashman starts negotiations with a package a little lighter than what he’d actually be willing to part with.
With all of that said, I’m not interested in seeing the Yankees trade any top tier prospects for John Danks. No Sanchez, no Williams, no Betances.
What up Craig!
Haha, just sitting in econ class actually. Enjoying the back and forth about Danks.
Probably a better use of time than econ haha.
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