Yankees finish off sweep of Jays behind Pettitte and Rivera-less bullpen

Jagielo triples and homers in Staten Island win
Mailbag: Gardner, Gonzalez, Freese, Aune


Source: FanGraphs

Four wins in three days? Four wins in three days! Against the Blue Jays too, the offseason champiohahaha! Nevermind. The Yankees won their fifth straight game and their tenth in their last dozen games overall on Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, the three hour and thirty-two minute rain delay didn’t exactly jibe with my schedule, so I missed a huge chunk of this game. All the action, really. I left after the blown call on Alex Rodriguez‘s would-be infield single in the fourth and returned when Boone Logan bailed out Shawn Kelley in the seventh. Missed all the scoring in the 5-3 victory.

Aside from the actual win in the standings, the most important thing to come from the game was Andy Pettitte and his second straight Pettitte-esque start. He held Toronto to just a solo homer in six innings, allowing four hits and three walks against three strikeouts. Andy walked a few more batters than usual, both otherwise it looked like typical Pettitte and that’s a very positive sign. The Yankees need at least one of their underperforming starters to step up down the stretch, and right now it looks like Andy will be the guy.

The most notable play on offense was Vernon Wells‘ single/sac fly/double play/blown call. I can’t explain it, so just watch the video. The end result was the go-ahead run after Curtis Granderson‘s solo homer tied it earlier in the inning. Eduardo Nunez plated two big insurance runs with a tomahawk single to center in the sixth inning. The Yankees only had four hits in the game — the Blue Jays pitching staff did them a big favor with six walks. Aside from the Granderson homer, every runner who scored for New York originally reached on ball four.

Mariano Rivera was unavailable due to his recent workload, meaning Joe Girardi had to mix-and-match his way through the seventh and eighth innings before handing the ball to closer du jour David Robertson. Kelley allowed two runs and four of six batters faced to reach base before being bailed out by Logan, who whiffed Adam Lind for the final out of the seventh. The just called up Preston Claiborne fired a scoreless eighth before Robertson threw a perfect ninth. He went to a three-ball count on all three batters faced, naturally.

For the box score and video highlights, go to MLB.com. FanGraphs has some other stats and ESPN the updated standings. With the win, the Yankees are now just 3.5 (!) games back of the second wildcard spot, four in the loss column. Cool Standings has their postseason odds at 15.4%. They were at 1.8% as recently as August 7th, just to give you an idea of how much progress they’ve made lately. The Yankees are off to Tampa for three ridiculously important weekend games. Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball against rookie right-hander Chris Archer in Friday night’s series opener.

email
Jagielo triples and homers in Staten Island win
Mailbag: Gardner, Gonzalez, Freese, Aune
  • Robinson Tilapia

    August 7th, you mean?

    I won’t say “must win,” but oh lordy is this an important series this weekend.

    So proud of this team right now.

    • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

      I don’t think it’s quite must-win, but they are DEAD if they’re swept. It’s just over. They canNOT let that happen.

      • Deathstroke Heathcott

        While it would certainly be a crushing, crushing, crushing blow (three crushings for emphasis), they still wouldn’t be dead if Oakland say loses 2 of 3 to the Orioles or get swept by the Orioles. It would shrink our chances by quite a bit though. But I’m thinking positive, series win this weekend and keep the momentum going.

        • OldYanksFan

          Gotta disagree. I mean, YCPB, and anything can happen, but looking at the top 5 teams, and especially Oakland’s schedule (their last 13 games are against LAA, Minn and Seattle!), I will say will almost certainty, that we will NOT be able to back into the PS.

          We are going to HAVE TO WIN our way in, probably with 92 Wins. The only possible semi-collapse I see is Boston.
          I believe Detroit and Texas are in, and probably Oakland also. If we finish with the 6th Best Record, we are probably looking directly above us at TB (or Boston).

          So therefore, getting swept here would not only give us 3 more loses, but give the team we are trying to catch, 3 more Wins. If we are swept, we are DONE! 100% done.

          If we take 1 of 3, we are like that armless/legless Knight in Monty Python. We will still be standing, but man…. will we be hurting.

          If we Sweep, I believe we are in. It will be like the whole team is on a Jolt Cola drip. If we take 2 of 3 (hopefully) we gain a game on TB and are still moving forward, and I would feel very good about our chances going forward.

          TB and the Yankees have similar schedules going forward, although I would say TB’s is easier. After this series, their next 10 of 14 games are against LAA and Seattle, and they could really put some distance between us.

          2 of 3 is a must here.
          Anything else is a coffin… just without the nails.

      • Mr. Roth

        A sweep of the Rays, however, would do wonders for our chances of winning the division.

        • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

          I’ll come right out and say that if we sweep the Rays, I think we’re in the playoffs.

          • Robinson Tilapia

            We could get swept and it’s not over. We could sweep and still miss the playoffs. Sorry, dude.

            • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

              Sure, if we get swept it MIGHT not be over. Of course, that would be optimistic to the extreme, but maybe not. It would be pretty damning, though. Losing three games would be bad enough. Three to the Rays would just ice it.

              If we sweep there’s still an excellent chance we don’t make it in. That’s just my prediction.

  • villapalomares

    You mean August 7 right? Not April 7.

  • dkidd

    that sound you hear? that’s what we call…

    (puts on sunglasses)

    …a sonic broom.

    YYYYYEEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH

    • I’m One

      That light you see in the distance? That’s not the light at the end of the tunnel, it’s a freight train called the New York Yankees!!

    • Havok9120

      _Very_ well done. And I see that meme a ton.

  • Kramerica Industries

    They were at 1.8% as recently as April 7th, just to give you an idea of how much progress they’ve made lately.

    They had been condemned to only 1.8% on April 7? Yikes!

    • Kevin G.

      Wrong New York team

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Take a bow.

        #heobviouslymeanstheknicks

        • Havok9120

          Hehehe

  • WhittakerWalt

    TRADE CANO!!
    TRADE KURODA!!!
    TRADE GRANDERSON!!!!

    SELL SELL SELL

    REBUILD REBUILD REBUILD

    BRING UP THE KIDS!

    Heh.

  • Gonzo

    EAT THE RAYS!!!!

  • BFDeal

    Hey, remember when TomH said Toronto was the “crème de la crème” of the AL East?

    • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

      http://riveraveblues.com/2013/.....nt-6444518

      It took them 2-2 1/2 mos. to jell, and now they have. If their pitching comes around, it’s not out of the question that they could ice the AL East by mid-September.

      Posted immediately after the 11-game winning streak…

      • Havok9120

        Yowzah.

        I’m so glad that was in the midst of my hiatus.

      • Kramerica Industries

        Hahah, that also reminds me of when Greg complained the Yankees didn’t pick up enough games on their opponents during their 10-game (or was it 11?) streak last year.

        Like, yeah, they have control over that.

        • vicki

          that is pms-level irrational.

        • Havok9120

          I’m almost certain I remember that (was it really 10?). It made my eyes bleed.

        • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

          http://riveraveblues.com/2013/.....nt-6444477

          Greg was having fun in this comment thread too.

          • Havok9120

            …..

            *headdesk*

      • BFDeal

        He said I wasn’t allowed to criticize his Toronto comments until October.

      • Get Phelps Up

        They’ll have last place iced by then. Surely that has to count for something…right?

  • Kevin G.

    Stealing this from Pinstriped Bible

    http://puu.sh/48BBy.jpg

    • http://www.draftstreet.com/register.aspx?r=Jedile Jedile

      stealing this from Kevin G.

    • Havok9120

      He has reflexes like a cat and arms like a longshoreman.

  • forensic

    Nice win and awesome sweep. Hopefully they can get the job done well this weekend in Tampa and then continue their winning ways against Toronto to start next week.

    Six games on turf? Everyone ready to be frustrated with some of the days off and lineups we’re likely to see? :-)

  • http://www.draftstreet.com/register.aspx?r=Jedile Jedile

    I think we should start getting used to seeing Preston in the 8th and Robertson in the 9th! I think I’d be fine with this too. Or Preston can be the 7th inning guy. I’m interested to see where Delin comes into play (I think we shall see how he fairs in september)!

  • Eddard

    The heroes of the series were Stewie, Nixy, Huffer and Nuney. They won all 4 ballgames for us and have put us within 3.5 games of a WC spot. This weekend they have to take at least 2/3 in their house of horrors. They should go Hiroki, CC, Nova and hope to win the 1st and 3rd ballgames. Nova always does well against Tampa.

    • vicki

      i think we decided to call him Huffles.

      • Wheels

        15.6%, with a bullet!

        • Wheels

          sorry, wrong spot

      • forensic

        This is like your Grienkles.

        Is that some sort of play on something that I’m just missing, or just a random set of nicknames you like to give out?

        • vicki

          i got greinkles from the world’s greatest troll: berkshirebull (and aliases) on the old espn brewers forum. that guy was an artist.

          the -kles and -ffles sounds are whimsical and funny, and lawd knows i’ve had my fill of joe’s -y diminutives.

    • forensic

      Shouldn’t it be Huffy…

      • Havok9120

        I’m with vicki.

      • dkidd

        h.r. hufnstuf

      • WhittakerWalt

        Let’s call him “Aubrey.”

  • Robinson Tilapia

    From the bottom of my heart, go fuck yourselves, 2013 Toronto Blue Jays.

    • vicki

      big, wet #cosign.

      • Havok9120

        Did you sign it in blood or something?

        • vicki

          let’s go with that.

          • Havok9120

            *shudder*

          • I’m a looser baby, so why don’t you kill me? (Formerly not the droids you’re looking for…)

            Eew.

    • Kramerica Industries

      Mike needs to amend this post with a “10-0″ note.

    • Brian S.

      Why though? Of all our division rivals I like them the best and they helped us get a lot of wins this year. They aren’t the first team to suck after people thinking they would be good.

      • vicki

        their fans’ celebration of grandy’s injury is plenty.

      • Get Phelps Up

        I personally only dislike the Red Sox more than the Jays as far as the AL East goes. I guess the division rival that I hate the least is the Rays (sorry Kramerica). The 2008 ALCS and September 2011 gave me too much of a soft spot for them I suppose.

        • Kramerica Industries

          Oh, nevermind me. The majority of my Rays dislike is directly tied to the fact that I live in-market.

        • Brian S.

          I dunno. I really do appreciate them for those two moments but I also am used to battling them.

        • I’m a looser baby, so why don’t you kill me? (Formerly not the droids you’re looking for…)

          Baltimore gets lots of hate from me as I cannot fucking stand showalter.

      • Havok9120

        The Red Sox (and, to switch sports a second, the Saints) bothered me the most because of their fans instant cockiness after winning 1 or 2 championships. They started acting like it was a dynasty or something.

        The Jays didn’t even win anything, they skipped that part and went straight to cocky morons. Between that and how gleeful so many of them were over hitting our players in ST (it wasn’t just Grandy, you’ll remember) ensures that I shall despise them for quite some time.

      • forensic

        They’re right there with the O’s for me in hating them, less hate than the Red Sox, but more than the Rays. Including outside the division teams, the Angels are right below the Red Sox level, pretty close to the Jays/O’s, and the Tigers and Rangers are probably right below the Jays/O’s.

        • Lukaszek

          The top hate would be for Boston, with Detroit a close second. After that Angels a somewhat close third, then White Sox and Texas a distant tie for fourth

  • Havok9120

    Muhahahaha

    All the good feelings.

    Roll on to a winning series in that Hellhole they call The Trop.

    • vicki

      i don’t think i’ve posted my favorite sterling quote on the subject this season: “it’s a lot of things, suzyn, but it’s no place to play a baseball game.”

      • Havok9120

        That’s freaking brilliant. The best straight line I’ve ever seen attributed to him.

        I think the best screwup remains his using the “An A-BOMB!!” line for….Matsui. Whoops. There are many more contenders in this category than the one above.

  • Get Phelps Up

    We’re going to win the division.

    • vicki

      shut it!

      baseball gods listening.

  • Elton Cod

    I like this team. Much better than last year’s team. They’re not as good as last year’s team, but they are a lot better.

    After Tuesday night I was ready to post that 8/20 from now on should be ‘Jayson Nix Day’ at the Stadium, especially if this playoff run goes someplace .After yesterday, possibly the last game Nix will play in a Yankee uniform, I definitely think this should happen. If Jayson Nix Day doesn’t happen at Yankee Stadium, it will, at least, happen in my heart, everyday August 20th from now on I will toast to him and to Chris Stewart’s 3-run homer.

  • vicki

    can’t be a bad thing for us if the white sox hold this lead.

    • Havok9120

      It would be a very good thing. Gotta watch our backs as we storm forward up the standings.

      • vicki

        ballgame over. that should be good for a couple tenths over at coolstandings.

        • Havok9120

          Whew.

          One thing the second WC has done for me this year: I’m paying attention to far more games on a given day.

          • vicki

            when you’re not sipping crystal on a yacht with a bevy of hip-hop honeys.

            • Havok9120

              Hey now, I’ve only been on a yacht once this summer!

              …..

              That wasn’t quite as resounding a smack down as I was going for.

            • Mr. Roth

              By “crystal” are you referring to meth? Or do you mean “Cristal?”

              ;)

              • Havok9120

                Better not to ask so many questions. I’m an odd bird.

  • http://www.revolutionhomegymreview.com/ George

    What a great game for Yankees! They surely do a lot of efforts to won five straight games in this series.

    • I’m a looser baby, so why don’t you kill me? (Formerly not the droids you’re looking for…)

      Many efforts indeed.

  • Darren

    I just want to go on record to say that I believe Jeter is gonna come back strong.

    And he’s gonna strong for us the next 4 years.

    And I can’t guarantee it, because it’s a relatively difficult task, but I put his odds on passing Pete Rose at 75%. At worst.

    • Brian S.

      Where are you getting this data from? What’s your projection system?

      • OldYanksFan

        Fuck that. Where are you getting your Weed from!?!

    • Pat D

      I’m not sure I give him better than a 7.5% chance.

      Maybe not even .75%.

      Ask me again two years from now.

      • dkidd

        rose got to 3500 in decent shape, but the last 700-odd hits were gotten as a (way) below replacement player. if jeter decided to dh for the astros until he was 45, he would have a real shot. thankfully, i believe he possesses a sense of shame

        • vicki

          and of course there’s all that rhetoric about personal numbers meaning nothing; the only objective is championships. i believe he means it.

          ps. lisanti’s jeter burlesque is so funny because it’s only the slightest of exaggerations.

          “I only pay attention to stats that begin and end with a capital W.”

          and then, “And don’t tell me there’s some new nerd stat like WxRFSW or something like that.”

          http://www.grantland.com/blog/.....your-hotel

          read the captain’s log!

    • forensic

      If Jeter came back tomorrow (not happening) and got 48 hits the rest of this year, he would still need to average 225 hits per year for those next four years to tie Rose. He has never had even 220 hits in a single season in his career.

      • Havok9120

        Surely you remember the two day, eighty post knockdown drag out he and I had about this last season?

        This is worse than trying to argue with Greg or The Troll (and his various affiliates).

        • forensic

          hmm, that actually doesn’t ring a bell, off-hand. Maybe it was one of the threads I missed. I don’t always read the comments in all the threads during the day.

          • Havok9120

            Just rest assured that he truly is as fanatical as his 75% chance of 4 record breaking years makes him sound.

            • forensic

              Yeah, I’m getting a full understanding of that now.

        • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

          Hmmmmm, I don’t think anybody is harder to argue against than Greg. That dude has trolling nailed to an art form. He has almost the entire forum totally convinced that he’s not a troll. But the more I see him and his ridiculous comments, the more obvious it becomes – and I’ve been here since 09′. I think I was finally 100% convinced when he called Cashman “Cashit”.

          • Dalek Jeter

            Greg is impossible to argue against because he makes facile and indefensible arguments.

            Also, to dkidd below me, I think he’s got a chance at passing Stan, if only because he won’t sign a 1 year deal after 2014 if he continues playing it’ll be at least 1 w/ a player option for 2 if not 2 w/ an option for 3.

            • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

              I still vividly recall, and it was not that long ago, when Greg tried to make the argument that it was the fault of the pitching that we lost 2-1. I actually got him to admit at one point that he would blame the pitching if we lost ONE-zero.

              Matt, of all people, and I were arguing with him about this at the end of a game thread. I really shouldn’t have gotten involved, but I was in a shitty mood and that was such a shockingly stupid position that I just couldn’t help myself. It was a mistake.

              Anyway, Matt was clearly the sane one of the two of them. Which is not flattering towards Greg, let me tell you.

              • Havok9120

                You’re just making my hiatus seem all the sweeter in hindsight.

              • Dalek Jeter

                That, right there, is when I gave up on Greg. I agree, Matt is the more sane, but he too has some ludicrous opinions and is as hard headed as Greg. They..among a lot of other posters is why I’ve gone from what I felt was a “regular” around here when I was Lord Voldemort to a much smaller time poster this season.

                • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

                  I suspected he was a troll who had pulled the wool over everybody’s eyes for awhile, but I “officially” gave up on him when he called the Steinbrenners and Cashman names (I don’t remember the Steinbrenner’s “nicknames”, but…”Cashit”).

                  • Dalek Jeter

                    This must be relatively recent (all though I will admit that I skim a majority of comments, and have for a majority of this season)

                    • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

                      I feel as if it was around the trade deadline, though it may even have been a bit earlier.

                  • Get Phelps Up

                    I seem to remember him tossing around Scrooge McSteinbrenner and Steingrabber quite frequently.

              • Kramerica Industries

                This was after Mo blew the Baltimore game, wasn’t it?

          • Havok9120

            Darren is only worse on this one topic. He must have his house mortgaged on a bet that Jeter will get to 4000.

            • Darren

              LOL, I don’t even remember that fight, did you have a different screen name?

              I’m not trolling. My projection system is based on a reasonable estimate of future numbers, based on existing statistics for the only available sample size, i.e., Jeter himself.

              A freak accident cost him this year. Until now he’s been incredibly durable. Did you see the video from his rehab tonight? He looked fine, seriously. There’s zero reason he can’t fully recover, considering modern medicine, nutrition and all of the other resources he has.

              Last year he led the Majors in plate appearances (740!), hits (216!) and ABs. OPS+14 from the shortstop! These stats are comparable with his entire career. It wasn’t a standout, unlikely to be repeated career year.

              It’s invalid to compare Jeter to an entire history of shortstops who Jeter has already not just surpassed, but blown past. Predicting Jeter’s future based on a group that he long ago left behind seems like bad analysis to me. Instead of looking at the facts, you look at the traditional narrative of what’s supposed to happen to shortstop his age, when he’s totally exceeded those expectations of not just the last 5 years when he should have been in a decline, but again, for his ENTIRE CAREER!

              Ok, I’m wrong about 4 years, he needs 948 hits that means he needs to stretch it out a little more. From the man who brought you a HR and soon to be trademarked over the shoulder back to the plate catch on Opening Day 96, the Dive, the Flip, Mr. November, 1st pitch WS HR, a HR for 3,000 hit and 5-5, a HR in his first game back from the DL, etc. etc., the following projection seems reasonable.

              30 hits this year
              2014 – 200 SS
              2015 – 200 SS/DH
              2016 – 150 1B/SS/DH
              2017 – 150 DH/1b/3b
              2018 – 120 DH/SS
              2019 – 80 DH/3b
              2020 – 75 DH/Player manager

              • Kramerica Industries

                I’m not sure what I would do if Jeter is still playing in 2020 when he’s 46 effing years old.

                • Darren

                  Watching.

                • forensic

                  Saying “When does the damn lease on this Trop dump end???” :-)

              • WhittakerWalt

                It does NOT seem reasonable. Not in any way. I have nothing more to add.

                • Darren

                  Let me just ask you, in 92, if someone said what are the odds Jeter is gonna be a top 5 all time Yankee, get 3,000 hits, etc, you’re telling me you wouldn’t have thought that was unreasonable? If someone asked you about his stats from last year in the beginning of 2010 would you have said they were reasonable? OBVIOUSLY passing Rose would be incredible, but in light if his career to date, reasonable. More importantly, there’s zero proof to the contrary. It’s impossible to predict.

                  • Havok9120

                    Which won’t stop you from trying in fairly exact, if nonsensical, detail.

                    • Darren

                      LOL again. I don’t see how my detail is any more (or less) nonsensical than details about exactly why he won’t do it.

                      Predicting a future for Jeter based on the career arc of players like Nomar (or Rey Ordonez for that matter) makes less sense than predicting a future based on the career of the only player that matters-Jeter.

              • Get Phelps Up

                How many PA’s do you think he’ll get in 2019 and 2020?

                • forensic

                  I’m guessing 80 in 2019 and 75 in 2020…

                  Or maybe 85 and 80 if we’re being conservative…

                • Havok9120

                  Heh.

                • Darren

                  Realistically, he’ll probably need 400 PAs in 2019 and 300 in 2020 to get those hits. He won’t be beating out many infield hits at that point. Obviously, it would be better if he was able to squeeze 180 hits in 2016 an d 2017 but that’s probably too much to ask.

                  • Get Phelps Up

                    I think I love Derek Jeter too much to want to watch him hit .200 and .250 as a 45 and 46 year old shuffling between infield positions, hit record or not.

                    It would ruin a beautiful Baseball Reference page.

                    • Darren

                      What about if he’s not shuffling but continues to look like he always has, but just can’t play full time? I didn’t think Julio Franco ever embarrassed himself, did you? I can see Jeter following that path. hell, look at Mo!!

                    • Get Phelps Up

                      A 45-46 year old infielder hitting like that would be terribly detrimental to his team. It would also be tough to watch. Come on now.

                    • Darren

                      Are you crazy? Look at Franco’s stats when he was 45. How does that hurt the team? The Yankees would have killed to have a 45 year old Franco this year. We’d probably be in first place for the WC, at least.

                    • Get Phelps Up

                      I don’t care what Franco did. You said Jeter would need 400 PA’s at age 45 to reach 80 hits. That amounts to a .200 batting average, which would most definatley be a detriment to the team because he isn’t going to provide much value anywhere else.

              • forensic

                Wow, beyond the obvious absurdity of all this, I like how in 2016 he begins to move down the defensive spectrum all the way to 1B, then in 2017 moves back up a bit to 3B, then in 2018 moves all the way back up to SS.

                • Get Phelps Up

                  I’m thinking we should create a #DarrenDomain meme for this.

              • Dalek Jeter

                You’re nuttier than squirrel poo. But I’ll bite, the last time Derek had back to back 200 hit seasons was 2006-2007. Why, in the world, would he all of a sudden be able to do that again 7 years later after missing essentially an entire year to multiple leg injuries, at the ages of 40 and 41.

                • Darren

                  He’s gonna have Vernon Wells to protect him.

                  Rim shot

              • forensic

                I must say though, I’ll enjoy the pastanappingjeter meme that will exist here when he’s playing the field in 2019 at 45 years of age.

                • Dalek Jeter

                  “Now, Derek may be getting a little up there in age, and the range isn’t what it once was, but when it comes to a ball hit right to a guy, I don’t want that guy to be anybody but Jeter. He makes all the routine plays hit right at him.”-Michael Kay 6/27/2019 as a ball hit slowly 2 feet to Derek’s left gets through the infield

      • dkidd

        i just want him to catch tris speaker (he needs 207 more), then your top five become

        rose
        cobb
        aaron
        musial
        jeter

        which feels sufficiently awesome

        • Havok9120

          Definitely doable, and definitely sufficiently awesome. I didn’t realize he was that close to being top 5.

          Wonderful.

        • OldYanksFan

          Why not:
          2014 – 200 SS
          2015 – 200 SS/DH
          2016 – 150 DH/1B/SP
          2017 – 150 DH/1B/Closer (Hell, Mo is also 43)
          2018 – 120 DH/1B/3B/Player manager (replaces ARod at 3rd)
          2019 – 80 DH/GM
          2020 – 75 DH/Partial Owner/Has his first child w/Halle Berry

    • Dalek Jeter

      Where are you getting these odds? I remember reading somewhere (I think it was SI) like 5 years ago Jeter had the best chance of passing Rose and they put it at some ridiculously low number, it was under 1%.

      • Havok9120

        You already know the answer to your opening question.

      • WhittakerWalt

        Aww, come on! All Derek has to do is average more hits per season than he’s ever had in his career, and do it after the age of 40, and he’ll have the record. Should be easy. 75% was a low-ball figure.

        • Havok9120

          Now wait a minute, don’t start committing Darren’s arguments just to make him sound crazy. He outlined a second, more reasonable, path to 4K where the Captain remains a highly productive part time player/manager into the next decade.

          • Dalek Jeter

            Serious question, there has to be some part of the CBA barring a player manager, right?

            • Havok9120

              Not to my knowledge, though Forensic and Need Pitching will probably chime in soon to give us the scoop.

              • forensic

                I have no idea, but if I get tired of my current work I’ll take a break and try to look it up. :-)

            • Darren

              When the White Sox were considering Konerko, was it as player manager or just manager?

              • vicki

                from wiki:

                In 2011, Chicago White Sox general manager Kenny Williams said that he had considered making veteran first baseman Paul Konerko a player-manager to replace departing manager Ozzie Guillen. Williams instead hired retired player Robin Ventura for the position.[3]

                Major league rules are somewhat different for trips to the mound by the manager if he is a player-manager (this is with regard to being required to change pitchers), and a player-manager puts himself into or out of the lineup just as he would any other player.

          • Darren

            Thank you for clarifying that on my behalf!

          • WhittakerWalt

            “More reasonable” is not the same as “plausible.”
            That second argument was better than the first, sure, but still pretty freakin’ ludicrous. Jeter has essentially no shot to break Rose’s record. Unless he just hangs on as a shell of his former self for years and years like Rose did, DJ’s going to fall well short. I just don’t see him playing at an embarrassingly unproductive level just for empty singles. Jeter is too proud to do that, whereas Rose has no shame.

            • forensic

              Havok was being sarcastic.

              • WhittakerWalt

                Phew!

    • Jarrod

      75%? 75%!

      It would take Derek 5 more years (after this year) should he be able to keep up the pace of his previous 5 years (not counting this year).

      So what you are saying is that there is a 75% of DJ having nearly 200 hits a season between now and his age 44 season inclusive.

      If you offer me some odds, any odds, I will take them and punt the house that it doesn’t happen!

      • Darren

        See my above projections. You want me to offer you any odds? Ok, you give me $50,000 if he passes Rose – no time limit, other than retirement. I give you $500 if he retires without passing Rose. We on? :)

        • WhittakerWalt

          I put up $50,000 and you put up $500? Cripes, you’re an even shittier gambler than you are a prognosticator. Why don’t you make it even more enticing, like if I lose you get bang my wife or something?
          Sheesh.

          • Darren

            Hey dude, you said to offer you “some odds, any odds”. I did just that.

            And I think you got it backwards no? I’d be a shitty gambler if I made a straight up bet that Jeter would pass Rose, not if offered you a bet with 10:1 odds in my favor.

            BTW, pro tip: don’t make any wager offers you’re not willing to accept.

            • WhittakerWalt

              I think you mean 100:1, Mr. Mathlete.

              • Darren

                Mathlete makes me crack up every time I hear it, so thank you. And yes, 100:1.

          • I’m a looser baby, so why don’t you kill me? (Formerly not the droids you’re looking for…)

            Can I get bang?

          • OldYanksFan

            Can you post a picture of the old lady?

        • Dalek Jeter

          Let’s up the ante. I will become your full on indentured servant if Derek Jeter has more hits at the end of his career than Pete Rose. For the rest of my natural life or until I work off 500k, however if he doesn’t you have to pay me 50 large.

          • Darren

            That’s unenforceable – illegal to make that kind of bet in the US.

            • fat jeter

              they did it on the Brady Bunch!

        • Evan3457

          Lemme see if I get this straight.

          First you say Jeter has a reasonable 75% chance of passing Rose. That’s odds of 1 to 3 (Not 3 to 1 against; 3 to 1 in favor).

          Then you offer betting odds of 100 to 1 to get you to actually risk real money.

          Nice work if you can get it.

          • Darren

            Well, once someone offers you “any odds”, you’d be silly to give them 1:3, or even 3:1, right? Although that’s probably how Hank Steinbrenner bets. See: the ARod extension for ex. #1.

    • vicki

      y’all been T-capital TROLLED.

      • WhittakerWalt

        Yeah, basically.

        • Darren

          Just to clarify: Not trolling.

  • Dalek Jeter

    In this scene I like to think of Archer as The Yankees and Bucky as The Blue Jays. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gRScnrnoKM

  • Darren

    When he was 45, Julio Franco had 99 hits, for a slash of .309/.378./.441.

    Ladies and gentlemen, I rest my case.

    “He did it! Derek Jeter has done it! A home run to break his tie with Pete Rose! Derek Jeter is the all time hits leader! El Capitan! He has climbed every mountain, overcome every obstacle! And he does it on a grand slam in the pouring rain, in the 15th inning of Game 163, a one game playoff against the Red Sox to send the Yankees into the playoffs! Of all the dramatic things!”

    • vicki

      you win. i believe.

      • Darren

        Jesus H Christ, it took long enough! Thank you!* The bandwagon is empty right now, but you’ll see, by 2017 it’s gonna get real crowded.
        * Sarcasm will be converted to earnest belief soon.

        • George Takei

          Ohhhhh myyyyy.

    • JLC 776

      I still need to see the video again of Giambi doing that (I haven’t seen it since the night it happened)… well, the grand slam in the pouring rain in the 15th or so inning against Minnesota. Game thirty-something.

      • Lukaszek

        Yeah I’d love to see the video too

  • Wayne

    The four games we have against Boston redsox at yankees stadium have everyone except sabathia pitching. But the way he has been pitching it may not matter.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    Darren, here’s pretty much how I feel about the overnight; I think you’re wrong. I hope you’re right.

    • Darren

      Thanks RT. The core of the argument is that using metrics of other players to predict Jeter’s future is stupid and just as invalid as taking a small sample size and using it to predict a player’s career. And so many people have already been so, so wrong about Jeter for years now, and won’t admit it.

      I mean, it would be amazing and wonderful, but would you really be utterly shocked if Jeter had another three years at the same level before he started to decline? I know it’s totally different, but Mo showed that it’s possible.

  • JLC 776

    Some credit where credit’s due – I missed a lot of the live game as well, but watching the Andy Pettitte highlight reel on mlb; Alex Rodriguez’s defense won that game. Two REALLY sharp plays there at 3rd – one to turn a 5-3 DP with the bases loaded.

    • SDB

      I did not expect that 5-3 DP. That was a hell of a play, and without that I don’t think we’d be talking about a 5 game streak.