Man, 2015 is weird. The Royals are the defending AL champs, the Yankees have missed the postseason the last two years, the Royals have one of the game’s top closers over the last few seasons, the Yankees are on their third closer in three years … what in the world is going on here? The Yankees and Royals begin a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium tonight.
What Have The Royals Done Lately?
The Royals had to settle for a split of their four-game series with the Rangers this week. They’ve won six of their last ten games and are 22-13 with a +42 run differential on the season. That’s the best record and run differential in the AL, both slightly ahead of the Yankees (21-15, +28).
Offense & Defense
After getting just enough offense en route to the AL pennant a year ago, the Royals are one of the best offensive teams in the league this year, averaging 4.94 runs per game with a team 115 wRC+. They still don’t hit for a ton of power (only 28 homers) but they once again have baseball’s lowest strikeout rate (14.6%) by several percentage points. They put the ball in play and run like hell.
The Royals are without OF Alex Rios (127 wRC+) due to a broken hand, but the lineup still features breakout stars 1B Eric Hosmer (172 wRC+) and 3B Mike Moustakas (136 wRC+). They’re perfect examples of why you don’t give up on young hitters if they struggle early in their careers. Sometimes it takes time. Moustakas has reinvented himself as an opposite field hitter in an effort to beat the shift. Teams still shift on him — he was the ninth most shifted hitter last year and so far this year he’s 11th — but now he can beat it on occasion and isn’t totally helpless.
OF Alex Gordon (144 wRC+), OF Lorenzo Cain (129 wRC+) and DH Kendrys Morales (131 wRC+) are all providing high-end offensive support. SS Alcides Escobar (119 wRC+) too. C Salvador Perez (95 wRC+) has been basically average but 2B Omar Infante (52 wRC+) has been bad, ditto the OF Paulo Orlando (76 wRC+) and OF Jarrod Dyson (42 wRC+) platoon that has replaced Rios. IF Christian Colon and C Drew Butera are the last two bench pieces.
Defensively, the Royals are second to none. Hands down the best defensive team in MLB. Gordon, Cain, Dyson, and Hosmer are elite defenders; Moustakas and Escobar are somewhere between above-average and elite; Perez and Orlando are above-average. Infante is the worst defensive regular on the team and even he isn’t all that bad. It gets no better than this group. Celebrate every time a ball drops in this weekend.
Pitching Matchups
Friday: RHP Michael Pineda (Career vs. KC) vs. RHP Chris Young (Career vs. NYY)
The 35-year-old Young has a 0.78 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 23.2 K% and 6.1 BB% in 23 innings spread across two starts and six long relief appearances for Kansas City this year. He started the season in the bullpen but recently moved into the rotation when Jason Vargas went down with an elbow issue. Young is one of the most unique pitchers in baseball. He stands 6-foot-10 and he pitches up in the zone with a mid-80s fastball, generating a frickin’ ton of fly balls (26.8% grounders). Young uses his size and his deception to hide the ball and get pop-ups, and he’s been doing it for a decade now. He’ll also mix in some low-80s sliders but otherwise that’s the plan. Get them to hit the fastball straight up in the air.
Saturday: LHP CC Sabathia (Career vs. KC) vs. LHP Danny Duffy (Career vs. NYY)
Duffy, 26, was a big part of the Royals’ rotation last year, but he barely pitched in the postseason (4.2 innings) due to a late season shoulder issue, and so far this season he has a 5.67 ERA (4.22 FIP) in seven starts and 33.1 innings. His strikeout rate is down slightly from last year (17.7% vs. 18.7%) and his walk rate (9.8% vs. 8.8%), ground ball rate (39.6% vs. 35.8%), and home run rate (0.81 HR/9 vs. 0.72 HR/9) are all up slightly. Righties (.391 wOBA) have hit him substantially harder than lefties (.315 wOBA), which has been true his entire career. Duffy throws really hard, especially for a lefty, sitting in the mid-90s and occasionally touching the upper-90s with his four-seam fastball. His top secondary pitch is a low-80s curveball, though he’ll also throw some mid-80s changeups as well. Duffy’s last two starts have been disasters — four runs in one inning and six runs in 3.2 innings — so I’m sure his confidence is a little low.
Sunday: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Career vs. KC) vs. RHP Edinson Volquez (Career vs. NYY)
Replacing James Shields with Volquez has gone … surprisingly not terribly so far. The 31-year-old Volquez has a 3.19 ERA (3.47 FIP) in seven starts and 42.1 innings this season, with league average-ish strikeout (18.9%), walk (9.7%), and ground ball (48.8%) rates. His homer rate (0.43 HR/9) is less than half his career mark (0.92 HR/9). Volquez has a small platoon split (.270 vs. .252 wOBA in favor of righties) and after walking five batters in his first 28.1 innings of the season, he’s walked 12 batters in his last 14 innings. He does still throw hard though, sitting in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker. Volquez also throws a mid-80s changeup and an upper-70s curveball, and on his very best days, both are put-away pitches. His stuff is really nasty when he locates, which is far too infrequently.
Bullpen Status
Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances are awesome, but the Royals have a better bullpen than the Yankees based on depth. The good news is manager Ned Yost used all his key relievers yesterday. That includes closer Greg Holland (3.14 FIP), setup men RHP Wade Davis (1.68 ERA) and RHP Kelvin Herrera (3.44 FIP), and middle relievers RHP Ryan Madson (3.26 FIP) and RHP Luke Hochevar (1.64 FIP). Herrera has pitched the last two days, everyone else just yesterday.
All five of those guys are power relievers — they all throw hard and have a put-away secondary pitch. Madson is finally back from Tommy John surgery too. He didn’t pitch at all from 2012-14 due to elbow reconstruction and numerous rehab setbacks. Pretty cool to see him pitch so well despite the long layoff. LHP Franklin Morales (3.21 FIP), RHP Jason Frasor (4.56 FIP), and RHP Aaron Brooks round out the eight-man bullpen. (Brooks has yet to appear in a game this season.) Check out the status of the Yankees’ bullpen with our Bullpen Workload page, then check out Royals Review for the latest and greatest on the defending AL champs.
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