The Yankees have an off-day today and it’s a good off-day because they won yesterday. It’s always nice to spend an off-day riding the high of a win, especially a come-from-behind win like last night’s. This team sure is fun, isn’t it? Anyway, I have some thoughts on things, so let’s get to ’em.
1. I know we spend a lot of time talking about Aaron Judge, but this can’t be said enough: he looks like a completely different player this season. Two recent at-bats really drove home that point for me. The first was last Friday night, in the ninth inning of that huge comeback win against the Orioles. Starlin Castro had already tied the game when Judge stepped to the plate with two outs and the bases empty. Judge hit two home runs earlier in the game, and with the score tied and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, it can be real easy to go into hero mode and try to hit a walk-off homer. Instead, he remained patient and took the five-pitch walk because the pitcher didn’t give him anything to hit. The other at-bat came in the seventh inning Tuesday night. Judge fell behind in the count 0-2 to Jason Grilli, worked it back to 3-2, fouled off four two-strike pitches until he got something he could punish, then clocked a three-run homer. Last season Judge was close to an automatic strikeout in two-strike counts. Now he’s spitting on pitcher’s pitches, working counts, and hammering the pitches he should hammer. Love this guy so much. It’s hard to believe he’s turned into this after what we saw last year.
2. As great as Judge as been — and he’s been awesome — the story so far this season has been more about the veterans than the rookies. The Yankees are where they are despite getting basically nothing from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez, mostly because veterans like Castro, Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Matt Holliday have started the season well. Holliday is new to the team, but the other three guys were with the Yankees last season and they all underperformed. Now they’re big time contributors. I wonder how much of that, if any, has to do with the farm system being so strong. The veterans saw all the talented young players in Spring Training, the Gleyber Torreses and Clint Fraziers and Dustin Fowlers and everyone else, and it pushed them to be better. Think about it. Castro has already been traded away by one rebuilding team. Now he’s with the Yankees and sees what a kid like Gleyber can do? It can be easy to think that kid is coming for your job. Players always say they worry only about their game and things they can control, but it’s human nature to look over your shoulder a bit. Perhaps a byproduct of this total awesome farm system is the prospects pushing the veterans to be better. That’d be neat.
3. Boy, the Red Sox aren’t nearly as scary offensively without David Ortiz, are they? It was really noticeable when the Yankees played those two games up in Fenway Park last week. Don’t get me wrong, guys like Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez are dangerous hitters, but Ortiz changed the entire dynamic of that offense. In the past I was always aware of where the Red Sox were in the lineup and kinda do the math to see how far away Ortiz was, and what the situation could be when he got to the plate. Know what I mean? The Red Sox are still a very talented team. Without Ortiz though, there’s just a very different feel to their lineup. That big scary bat who tormented the Yankees for more than a decade isn’t there anymore. And if I feel this way, I imagine the pitchers and Joe Girardi and everyone else with the Yankees feels the same way too. How could you not? Ortiz was an undeniable presence not just in the batter’s box, but even in the on-deck circle. You knew where his lineup spot was at all times. It’s nice not to have to worry about that anymore.
4. Not so bold prediction: we’re going to hear rumors about the Yankees looking for a left-handed reliever at some in next few weeks. They looked for another bullpen lefty pretty much all winter, took a flier on Jon Niese that hasn’t really worked out — Niese is still in Extended Spring Training building arm strength — and now Tommy Layne is getting knocked around. Left-handed hitters are 5-for-13 (.385) with two walks (.429) against him. Small sample size, yeah, but journeymen like Layne usually don’t get the benefit of waiting for their numbers to correct. There’s a reason he’s been with four organizations the last six years. The Yankees still have Chasen Shreve on the roster and some non-40-man roster southpaws like Tyler Webb and Jason Gurka stashed in Triple-A, so they have (less than stellar) options to cycle through. Maybe they’ll get lucky with one of them. My guess is they’ll look outside the organization for lefty relief help before long. Who will they target? I have no idea. I expect it to be a small move though. Nothing exciting that requires giving up good prospects.
5. You can’t win a postseason spot in April, but you sure can lose one, and that’s pretty much what happened to the Yankees last season. They went 8-14 in April and never really recovered. And, in the long run, it was the best thing for them because it led to the trade deadline sell-off. This year the opposite has happened. The Yankees are off to a great start, and while there is still a long way to go this season, their early season success has had a real impact on their playoff odds. From FanGraphs:
The Yankees have gone from a 15.9% chance to play in October on Opening Day to 57.7% following last night’s win. That’s a jump of 41.8 percentage points in basically a month. That’s a huge increase. By no means are postseason odds the be all, end all. At the end of the day, no one knows anything in this game, so why buy into the postseason odds? The point is the great start has significantly improved the Yankees’ chances of playing in October, whether it’s 41.8 percentage points or some other number. The improvement is real. The Yankees have helped themselves quite a bit these first four weeks or so.
6. And finally, it’s fun to feel like the Yankees truly have a homefield advantage again. That’s how I feel, anyway. The Yankees were 48-33 at home last season — that record surprised me — despite a just okay +23 run differential. In 2014 they were 43-38 with a -22 run differential at home. In 2013 it was 46-35 and a -14 run differential. So far this season the Yankees are 12-4 at home and have outscored their opponents by 38 runs. That’s more like it. I want the Yankees to dominate at home. Opposing pitchers should be terrified to pitch in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have kicked some serious butt at home early this year because of the power in their lineup and because their bullpen makes leads stand up. That wasn’t always the case the last few years, especially that part about the power.
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