River Avenue Blues

Yankees 4, Mariners 0: A Masahiro Masterpiece

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After that messy series in Oakland, I’m not sure we could’ve asked for a better start to this series than this. The Yankees earned a crisp 4-0 win over the Mariners in Friday night’s series opener at Safeco Field. The magic number to clinch a postseason spot is down to 12, hence Wade Boggs in the sidebar. This was a West Coast night game, so let’s go with a bullet point recap.

  • Two Two-Run Homers: In two starts against the Yankees this year, James Paxton allowed four home runs in ten innings. A fifth homer was robbed. The Yankees got to the man they call Big Maple for two two-run homers in five innings Friday night. Luke Voit stroked a two-out single in the second, then Gleyber Torres parked one in the bullpen for a 2-0 lead. That was Gleyber’s 100th career hit. Brett Gardner slashed a leadoff single to left to start the third, then Andrew McCutchen jumped on a hanging breaking ball for a towering two-run homer and a 4-0 lead. McCutchen’s first dinger as a Yankee. I hope that made all the luggage trouble worth it.
  • Masterful Masahiro: What an outing for Masahiro Tanaka. Eight innings, three hits, ten strikeouts, no runs. He retired 15 of the first 16 batters he faced, and, in his only jam of the night, he struck out Robinson Cano with runners on the corners to end the sixth inning. That was satisfying. The final line: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K on 102 pitches. In his last 14 starts now, Tanaka has a 2.73 ERA (3.41 FIP) in 85.2 innings. As awesome as J.A. Happ has been since the trade, right now, I’d hand the ball to Tanaka with the season on the line in a winner take all Wild Card Game. The Yankees have some good options for that game even with Luis Severino struggling.
  • Didi Returns: Welcome back, Sir Didi Gregorius. He was activated off the disabled list earlier in the day and entered the game in sixth inning as a defensive replacement for Miguel Andujar (Adeiny Hechavarria slid over to third). Gregorius grounded out to second in his only at-bat. He is essentially playing rehab games now and he wasn’t going to play all nine innings, so the Yankees waited until the tough lefty (Paxton) was out to put Didi in.
  • Leftovers: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, and Gary Sanchez (the 2-3-4 hitters) went a combined 0-for-12 with six strikeouts. Ouch … two hits for Voit (singles) and one apiece for McCutchen (homer), Torres (homer), Hechavarria (single), and Gardner (single). McCutchen drew the only walk … David Robertson was the only reliever used and he pitched around a one-out walk in the ninth. He started warming up in the eighth in case Tanaka ran into trouble, and once he warmed up, you might as well use him.

Here are the box score, video highlights, updated standings, and postseason odds. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page. The Yankees and Mariners will continue this series Saturday night. That’s a 9:10pm ET start. Lance Lynn and Felix Hernandez are the scheduled starters. Bold prediction: Runs will be scored.


Source: FanGraphs

DotF: Scranton unable to advance to IL Championship Series

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One quick minor league note to pass along before we get to tonight’s action. According to Lou DiPietro, the Yankees still have one Arizona Fall League roster spot to fill. It is a “taxi squad” spot, meaning the player will only be eligible to play Wednesdays and Saturdays. SS Kyle Holder would make sense after injuries limited him to 48 regular season games this year. Here are the seven players the Yankees are sending to the AzFL. We’ll find who the eighth is soon enough.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-2 loss to Lehigh Valley in 13 innings, walk-off style) they still lead the best-of-five first round postseason series two games to one … one more win and they’re back in the International League Championship Series for the third straight year … in case you’re wondering, they do not use the “put a runner on second base” tiebreaker rule in extra innings in the postseason, so it’s regular old extra innings baseball

1. CF Shane Robinson: 1-7 — now 1-for-16 (.063) in the series
2. LF Mark Payton: 1-6
3. 3B Gio Urshela: 2-5, 1 BB, 2 K — 5-for-13 (.385) in the series
4. 1B Ryan McBroom: 3-6, 3 K — went 1-for-8 (.125) in the first two games of the series
5. DH Mike Ford: 1-5, 1 R, 1 BB — 2-for-12 (.167) in the series
6. RF Zack Zehner: 1-5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
7. 2B Bruce Caldwell: 1-5, 1 BB, 1 K
8. C Wilkin Castillo: 1-6, 1 K
9. SS Rey Navarro: 4-6, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI — hit .242/.285/.409 in 62 games after signing out of an independent league in midseason
LHP Ryan Bollinger: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 7/4 GB/FB — 51 of 87 pitches were strikes (59%)
RHP George Kontos: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 1/2 GB/FB — eleven of 16 pitches were strikes (69%) … gave up the game-tying two-run home run that allowed the runner he inherited from Bollinger to score
RHP Cale Coshow: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1/0 GB/FB — 24 of 42 pitches were strikes (57%)
RHP David Sosebee: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1/2 GB/FB — 24 of 48 pitches were strikes (50%), though one of those walks was intentional
RHP Brady Lail: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 2/2 GB/FB — only eleven of 25 pitches were strikes (44%), though the walk was intentional … manager Bobby Mitchell saved closer RHP Joe Harvey for a save situation and got burned … I suppose the good news is they still only need one win to advance, and they’ll go into tomorrow’s game with Harvey and LHP Justus Sheffield ready to go out of the bullpen

Double-A Trenton Thunder (5-1 loss to New Hampshire) they were swept in their best-of-five first round postseason series, so the season is over … bummer … one or two of these guys might get moved up to Scranton should the RailRiders advance to the next round

1. 1B Gosuke Katoh: 1-4, 1 2B, 1 RBI
2. 3B Angel Aguilar: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 K, 1 HBP
3. DH Brandon Wagner: 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K — went 1-for-10 in the series
4. LF Trey Amburgey: 1-4 — went 1-for-11 in the series … hard to win when your 3-4 hitters go a combined 2-for-21 in the three games
5. SS Kyle Holder: 0-4, 1 K– he’s a guy I could see getting moved up to Scranton for the next round, assuming they advance … the RailRiders have been making do at short since Tyler Wade returned to the big leagues
6. RF Dom Thompson-Williams: 1-4, 1 K — threw a runner out at first base
7. C Jorge Saez: 0-4, 1 K
8. CF Rashad Crawford: 1-3, 1 R
9. 2B Wendell Rijo: 1-3
RHP Nick Nelson: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 2 WP, 4/2 GB/FB — 66 of 101 pitches were strikes (65%) … finishes the 2018 season with a 3.62 ERA and 150/67 K/BB in 126.2 innings
RHP Matt Wivinis: 2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2/2 GB/FB — 26 of 38 pitches were strikes (65%)
LHP James Reeves: 2 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 1 HB, 0/2 GB/FB — 18 of 23 pitches were strikes (78%)

The season is over for the High-A Tampa Tarpons, the Low-A Charleston RiverDogs, the Short Season Staten Island Yankees, the Rookie Pulaski Yankees, and the two Rookie GCL Yankees affiliates. None of those teams qualified for the postseason.

Game 141: A New Series

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(Presswire)

I don’t know about you, but that series against the Athletics irked me all through the off-day. Pretty crummy series all the way around. At least it’s over. The Yankees are now in Seattle for a three-game series against a Mariners team that managed to go from seven games up on a postseason spot to 5.5 games back of a postseason spot the last two and a half months. Ouch. Seattle is nine games behind the Yankees at the moment.

Masahiro Tanaka is on the mound and, at this point, the Yankees are basically holding open auditions for the Wild Card Game starter. On any given day the Wild Card Game starter will be the last guy who pitched well. Right now, it’s J.A. Happ. With a strong start tonight, everyone will say it’s Tanaka. I hope that is the case in a few hours. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. RF Andrew McCutchen
2. DH Giancarlo Stanton
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. C Gary Sanchez
5. 3B Miguel Andujar
6. 1B Luke Voit
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. SS Adeiny Hechavarria
9. LF Brett Gardner

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Seattle Mariners
1. RF Mitch Haniger
2. SS Jean Segura
3. 2B Robinson Cano
4. DH Nelson Cruz
5. LF Denard Span
6. 1B Ryon Healy
7. 3B Kyle Seager
8. C Mike Zunino
9. CF Dee Gordon

LHP James Paxton

Chilly evening in Seattle and there are some showers in the forecast later on, so the Safeco Field roof is probably going to close at some point, if not before the game. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm ET and YES will have the broadcast. Enjoy the ballgame.

Injury Updates: In case you missed it earlier, Didi Gregorius (heel) has been activated off the disabled list, and the hope is he’ll play tonight. Aaron Boone said they want to ease Didi back into things since he hasn’t played any rehab games, and it sounds like the plan is to have him come off the bench once the tough lefty (Paxton) is out of the game. Gregorius will play tomorrow, but likely not the entire game. It’s a rehab assignment at the big league level, basically … Aaron Judge (wrist) took another step forward in his rehab today. He hit off a tee and soft toss on the field today, and again everything went well. The wrist is essentially pain-free. “This is kind of what we’ve been waiting for the whole time,” said Boone.

Roster Note: Sonny Gray has rejoined the Yankees. He missed the A’s series because he was home with his wife, who gave birth to their second child earlier this week. Congrats to them.

9/7 to 9/9 Series Preview: Seattle Mariners

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(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The Yankees opened up their West Coast trip in disappointing fashion, dropping two out of three to the Oakland A’s. And that 1-2 record doesn’t come close to capturing just how frustrating the series was. With their Wild Card home-field advantage lead now sitting at 3.5 games, they’ll head up the coast to face the sinking Mariners.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees were rude hosts to the Mariners back in June, earning a three-game sweep by a combined score of 18-10. Some notes:

  • Domingo German was excellent in the first game, tossing 7 innings and allowing just two hits and two runs (one earned), while striking out 9.
  • Clint Frazier – who turned 24 yesterday – started all three games of the series. He went 4-for-11 with a double and three runs scored. Bringing this up makes me both happy and sad.
  • Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, and Giancarlo Stanton were a triple-headed monster in the series, going a combined 12-for-36 with two doubles, five home runs, and 11 RBI.
  • The Yankees hit eight home runs overall in the series, with Andujar (2), Stanton (2), Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and Judge chipping in.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Juan Nicasio (knee surgery), David Phelps (Tommy John surgery), and Sam Tuivailala (Achilles tendon surgery) are all out for the year. Marco Gonzalez is currently on the DL with a neck injury, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be back in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Mariners are 78-62 with a -47 run differential, and are currently 5.5 GB in the Wild Card race. That -47 run differential is by far the worst among teams with a .500 or better record (the Rockies are next-worst at -8), and their Pythagorean record is 65-75 – so they may’ve overachieved a bit on the season. Regression to the mean is in full-swing, though, as the Mariners have went 32-36 since they landed in the Bronx back in June.

There isn’t one clear-cut reason for the Mariners backslide. Rather, it’s a combination of injuries, poor performance (and poorly timed poor performances), and the simple fact that they were playing above their talent level for a time. The fact that they’ve literally descended into clubhouse chaos probably doesn’t help, either.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Scott Servais has continued to have a mostly-steady hand on the lineup card, with most of the movement being from position to position (e.g., Robinson Cano has played 1B, 2B, and 3B and Dee Gordon has played 2B, SS, and CF). We’ll probably see something like this:

  1. Mitch Haniger, RF – .279/.365/.490, 24 HR, 7 SB, 138 OPS+
  2. Jean Segura, SS – .314/.345/.430, 8 HR, 20 SB, 117 OPS+
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B – .286/.369/.445, 7 HR, 0 SB, 128 OPS+
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH – .267/.353/.538, 34 HR, 1 SB, 146 OPS+
  5. Denard Span, LF – .277/.353/.449, 11 HR, 8 SB, 123 OPS+
  6. Ryon Healy, 1B – .249/.283/.445, 24 HR, 0 SB, 100 OPS+
  7. Kyle Seager, 3B – .216/.267/.393, 20 HR, 2 SB, 83 OPS+
  8. Mike Zunino, C – .188/.246/.395, 18 HR, 0 SB, 76 OPS+
  9. Dee Gordon, CF – .272/.293/.337, 2 HR, 30 SB, 77 OPS+

Ben Gamel (110 OPS+) and Cameron Maybin (86 OPS+) will probably see some time in the outfield; David Freitas (66 OPS+) is the back-up catcher.

Edwin Diaz donning his Players Weekend uniform. (Norm Hall/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (10:10 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP James Paxton

Paxton started against the Yankees back on June 21, and didn’t fare too well, pitching to the following line – 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 9 K. He has had two subsequent stints on the DL, the first coming in July due to back soreness, and the second in August, which was the result of being hit with a line-drive in his left arm. He’s otherwise been good, putting up a 3.74 ERA (107 ERA+) and 11.6 K/9 in 144.1 IP.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 9/1) – 5.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 10 K

Saturday (9:10 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Felix Hernandez

Hernandez was sent to the bullpen a month ago, following a 6 IP, 11 R effort on August 7. That stint lasted exactly one appearance, as he relieved Paxton following the aforementioned comebacker, tossed 5.2 solid IP, and returned to the rotation the following week. Things haven’t gotten much better for Hernandez, though, as he still has a career-worst 5.55 ERA (72 ERA+) in 147.2 IP.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 9/1) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Sunday (4:00 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Erasmo Ramirez

Ramirez has been an up-and-down guy for the last several years, and he has done well in that role. He’s been in the rotation since mid-August due to injuries (first to Paxton, then to Gonzalez), and he’s performed admirably through five starts (24.1 IP, 24 H, 6 BB, 19 K, 3.70 ERA). There’s a non-zero chance that Gonzalez will be activated in time for this start, but, as of now, it’s Ramirez’s turn.

The 28-year-old is a three or five pitch guy, depending on how you look at it. He throws three fastballs (a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, and a high-80s cutter), a low-80s slider, and a low-80s change-up.

Last outing (vs. BAL) – 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Edwin Diaz is in the midst of a ridiculous season. He currently boasts a 1.87 ERA (215 ERA+), 1.34 FIP, 15.6 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9, and he’s 53-for-57 in save opportunities. He leads all relievers in WAR, and he’s second in WPA (behind the A’s Blake Treinen) … and he’s still just 24. He’s a legitimate stud.

Chasen Bradford (3.33 ERA in 48.2 IP), James Pazos (3.02 ERA in 41.2 IP), and Alex Colome (3.05 ERA with the Mariners) are the primary high-leverage options behind Diaz, and they’ve all been good thus far. Things are a bit dicey after that, though.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s always a pleasure to see Robinson Cano on the field, even with his PED-related fall from grace. And Edwin Diaz has a very outside shot at matching Francisco Rodriguez’s single-season saves record of 62.

Didi Gregorius is coming back this weekend and it is not a moment too soon

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Everybody loves Didi. (Presswire)

Nothing is official yet, but all signs point to Didi Gregorius rejoining the Yankees for tonight’s series opener against the Mariners. He’s been out since August 21st with a bruised left heel — how he bruised his left heel on this play, I’ll never know — and all his rehab work the last few days has gone well. Gregorius has been hitting, running, the whole nine. He is expected back in the lineup tonight.

“He had a good day and we are looking at probably activating him Friday,” said Aaron Boone to George King on Wednesday. “In a lot of ways, he is one of the heartbeats of this club. He is in the middle of the diamond and playing a premium position as well as he does (and) gives us a lefty presence in the middle of the lineup. Kind of the captain of the infield out there. Just looking forward to his presence back in our lineup on both sides of the ball.”

Gleyber Torres has made a few careless errors but has otherwise filled in capably at shortstop while Gregorius was on the disabled list. Adeiny Hechavarria has helped out as well. The issue hasn’t been shortstop while Didi has been out. It’s been second base. With Gleyber shifting over to short, it has largely been Neil Walker and Ronald Torreyes at second base since Gregorius got hurt, and, uh:

  • SS while Didi hurt: .382/.460/.655 (204 wRC+) with five homers
  • 2B while Didi hurt: .130/.226/.185 (14 wRC+) with no homers

Goodness. The Yankees capably replaced Gregorius at shortstop by shifting Gleyber over. No one bothered to replace Torres at second. Once Didi returns, hopefully tonight, that second base black hole on offense goes away and I think the defense improves at both positions as well. Gregorius is better in the field than Torres, and Torres is better in the field than the Walker/Torreyes tandem. The Yankees will be better on both sides of the ball.

Also, Gregorius will add another left-handed bat to the lineup and wow do the Yankees need it. Greg Bird has been relegated to the bench, Walker’s bat has cooled, and Brett Gardner has had a bad second half. That all left the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks as the team’s most reliable left-handed bat while Gregorius has been sidelined. Hicks has been awesome — he’s hit .260/.415/.445 (139 wRC+) with more walks (20.7%) than strikeouts (19.1%) in the second half — but yeah, another reliable left-handed bat will be a welcome addition.

The Yankees have played some uninspired baseball the last week and a half — you can go back further than that, but it’s been really uninspired the last week and a half — and I don’t think Gregorius returning will fix it. Didi’s a ballplayer, not a miracle worker. He’ll help, for sure, but the Yankees have some deeper issues to fix. Luis Severino has been terrible and that is the team’s single biggest problem as far as I’m concerned. Gardner has vanished, Bird is unplayable, Giancarlo Stanton has been slumping, Aaron Judge is still out, so on and so forth.

For now, the Yankees are about to get one of their best players back from the disabled list, and that is undeniably a good thing. Gregorius improves the offense and the defense, and he’s a high-energy glue guy. The Yankees will be that much closer to full strength once he returns this weekend. They still have a bunch of other problems to figure out, but righting the ship is a multi-part process, and getting Didi back is a big part of that process.

Update: The Yankees reinstated Gregorius from the disabled list this afternoon, the team announced. He will officially be back in action tonight. Hooray for that.

Mailbag: Boone, Ohtani, Sanchez, Severino, Seigler, 40-Man

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Only seven questions in the mailbag this week as we’ve seem to have hit the annual “ugh why isn’t the season over yet just get to the postseason” part of the calendar. Less than four weeks to go in the regular season, folks. As always, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you should send your questions each week.

Boone. (Presswire)

Dan asks: What are the chances actually part ways with Boone at the end of the season? What would need to happen for that to take place? Losing the wild card game? Making an egregious mistake/move? When David Cone was in the R2C2 pod, he mentioned that when he saw Boone at a hotel bar earlier in the season that he gained more respect for him making himself available like that. But just having a good personality doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a solid manager.

There is basically a 0% chance Aaron Boone will be fired after the season. Barring an outright mutiny in the clubhouse (that ain’t happening with this group) or an unknown behind-the-scenes matter (remember when Dave Eiland was mysteriously fired?), Boone is here for the long haul. The Yankees knew they were getting an inexperienced rookie manager — that was the gamble they knowingly took — and they’re willing to live with the short-term growing pains in exchange for what they expect to be a big long-term reward. He’s a prospect, basically.

Boone has undeniably made some baffling on-field decisions this year. I don’t like Gleyber Torres hitting ninth at this point and the A.J. Cole obsession is pretty bad. Every manager does weird stuff like this though. Year One was always going to be something of a trial-and-error year for Boone. You could argue turning this team with these expectations over to a rookie manager was a bad idea, but the Yankees knew the risk, and they went with Boone anyway. He’ll get plenty of time to grow and develop as a manager. They’re not pulling the plug after one season, especially when they’re still on pace to win over 100 games.

Keane asks: Knowing what we know about Ohtani now, would you still sign him last December if you could? He won’t be back until 2020, but you’ll get four years of team control.

Absolutely. Shohei Ohtani is a star and I think he’s a generational talent. The guy is hitting .287/.367/.579 (157 wRC+) with 18 homers in 279 plate appearances while throwing 51.2 innings with a 3.31 ERA (3.56 FIP) and 29.9% strikeouts. Small sample sizes? Yes. The talent is undeniable though. Ohtani put up Aaron Judge (156 wRC+) and Charlie Morton (3.14 ERA and 3.59 FIP) numbers while dealing with that ongoing elbow injury. He showed he can handle MLB velocity at the plate and overwhelm hitters from the mound. What an awesome, fun player.

The Tommy John surgery absolutely sucks, but the Angels got this guy for nothing. The Angels gave him a $2.315M bonus and they control him for six years (ages 23-38) like every other rookie under the dumb international bonus rules. It’s a minimal commitment for a massive talent. Assuming Ohtani comes back a full-time two-way player in 2020, losing a year and a half of his six years of control to injury really stinks, but I’d happily sign up for the other four and a half years. I really wish the Yankees could’ve signed Ohtani. Alas.

Blaise asks: Since Sanchez has been on the DL I feel like our SP’s haven’t been as effective with Romine and Higgy behind the plate. In my opinion Sanchez is a much better game manager than Romine & Higgy, and because of that opponents swing and miss more often with Sanchez behind the plate compared to when Romine & Higgy are catching. Is this accurate?

For whatever reason hitters have swung and missed more when Gary Sanchez has been behind the plate this season. I’m not sure this is a good way to gauge game management or pitch-calling or things like that because, as always, the guy on the mound matters. The catcher can have the perfect plan and call the perfect pitches, and things can still go wrong. It’s still up to the pitcher to execute. Here are some numbers:

K% BB% Whiff% Out of Zone Called Strike In Zone Called Ball
Sanchez 27.2% 8.0% 29.9% 6.0% 4.6%
Romine 25.9% 8.3% 27.7% 5.6% 3.9%
Higgy 27.2% 7.4% 28.1% 5.5% 3.0%
MLB AVG 22.1% 8.4% 24.8% 5.2% 4.2%

Compared to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka (and the MLB average), Sanchez gets more called strikes on pitches out of the zone and also more balls called on pitches in the zone. The difference is tiny though. A handful of calls per 1,000 pitches in/out of the zone. Even with PitchFX and Statcast and all that, I don’t think we’re anywhere close to reliably measuring a catcher’s game-calling and game management.

Carlos asks: Ok, I know is a late question and probably lots of one side perception. But what is the Yankees 1st Inning ERA and how we rank against the league? It just seems we are always down after the first.

Historically, more runs are scored in the first inning than any other inning because it is the only inning in which the top of the order is guaranteed to bat, and teams (usually) stack their best hitters at the top of the lineup. Back in the day a lot of runs were scored in the sixth and seventh innings as well, though that really isn’t the case anymore because teams have quicker hooks with their tiring starters.

The Yankees have allowed a lot of first inning runs lately but, overall, they’ve been better than league average in the first inning. Here’s the inning-by-inning breakdown:

  • 1st inning: 4.24 ERA (MLB rank: 10th; MLB average: 4.65 ERA)
  • 2nd inning: 4.18 ERA (MLB rank: 20th; MLB average: 3.72 ERA)
  • 3rd inning: 2.51 ERA (MLB rank: 2nd; MLB average: 3.90 ERA)
  • 4th inning: 4.76 ERA (MLB rank: 22nd; MLB average: 4.27 ERA)
  • 5th inning: 4.50 ERA (MLB rank: 18th; MLB average: 4.32 ERA)
  • 6th inning: 4.76 ERA (MLB rank: 21st; MLB average: 4.27 ERA)
  • 7th inning: 3.15 ERA (MLB rank: 4th; MLB average: 4.17 ERA)
  • 8th inning: 3.24 ERA (MLB rank: 5th;  MLB average: 4.18 ERA)
  • 9th inning: 2.56 ERA (MLB rank: 1st; MLB average: 3.79 ERA)
  • Extras: 3.03 ERA (MLB rank: 10th; MLB average: 3.80 ERA)

Not surprisingly, the Yankees are much better in the late innings than the early innings thanks to their bullpen. Kinda weird they’re so good in the third inning. Is there a trick to being a good third inning team? Or is it just a coincidence? It is almost certainly the latter.

RJ asks: Will Sevy win the AL Cy Young if he ends up leading the league in wins?

Probably not. The prevailing narrative says the Cy Young voting changed after Felix Hernandez won the award with a 13-12 record in 2010, but eleven of the 14 Cy Young winners since then have been the league leader in wins, so I’m not sure that really holds water. Maybe it’s all one giant coincidence.

Anyway, thanks to his ongoing slump, I think Severino is too far down the leaderboard in other categories to win the Cy Young. His ranks among AL starters:

  • Wins: 17 (2nd)
  • Innings: 173.2 (7th)
  • ERA: 3.52 (11th)
  • ERA+: 125 (10th)
  • FIP: 3.04 (4th)
  • Strikeouts: 202 (5th)
  • K/BB ratio: 4.81 (5th)
  • fWAR: +4.8 (6th)
  • bWAR: +4.0 (8th)

Severino’s been good but others have been better, specifically Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer, and Blake Snell. Sale, Bauer, and Snell are going to end up throwing like 40 fewer innings than the other Cy Young candidates due to injuries, which will hurt their chances. I feel like the Cy Young is going to fall into Kluber’s lap again, not that he would be undeserving.

George asks: I had seen playing status for first round pick C Anthony Seigler in GCL and then at Pulaski team. It appeared that he was taken out mid game a few weeks ago but have not seen him in box scores or any DL notices. What’s up?

Seigler took a foul tip to the face mask on August 16th and the Yankees shut him down for the rest of the season with a concussion. Pulaski’s season was a week away from ending and there’s no sense in pushing your most recent first round pick — a just turned 19-year-old kid out of high school — after suffering a brain injury. Let him rest up and get ready for next year. Seigler hit .266/.379/.342 (108 wRC+) with more walks (14.7%) than strikeouts (12.6%) in 24 games in his pro debut. My guess is he’ll spend all of next season with Low-A Charleston.

Dave asks: the recent trade for McCutchen removes two more players from the future 40 man roster / rule V roster crunch. How about a quick rundown of who is left on the bubble at the moment?

The Yankees really cleaned up the 40-man roster situation at the trade deadline this year, both July 31st and August 31st. They have nine free agents coming off the roster after the season  (Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Adeiny Hechavarria, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, CC Sabathia, Neil Walker, and probably Brett Gardner) and three 60-day DL players to activate (Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery), which leaves six open 40-man spots. Here are this offseason’s notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects:

  • Catchers: Donny Sands
  • Infielders: Dermis Garcia,  Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park, Brandon Wagner
  • Outfielders: Trey Amburgey, Pablo Olivares
  • Pitchers: James Reeves, Justus Sheffield

Not the most exciting group. Sheffield will obviously be added to the 40-man — he’s probably coming up once the Triple-A Scranton season ends anyway — and I think there’s a good chance Amburgey, Holder, and Wagner make it as well. None of them project to be impact big leaguers but they all look like quality depth pieces, and all of them have played at Double-A next year, so they’ll be knocking on the door soon.

Remember, the Yankees will need some 40-man spots for big league additions. Britton, Happ, Robertson, Sabathia … those dudes all have to be re-signed or replaced. Can’t just load up the 40-man roster with non-elite prospects, you know? It is super early, but, given the current 40-man outlook, I wonder if the Yankees may look to make a Rule 5 Draft pick this year. They haven’t made a Rule 5 Draft pick since Brad Meyers and Cesar Cabral in 2011. Maybe they’ll look for an arm or a corner bat to compete with Greg Bird in the spring.

DotF: Cortes flirts with no-hitter, Scranton now one win away from IL Championship Series

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Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-0 win over Lehigh Valley) they lead the best-of-five first round series two games to none … one more win sends them to the International League Championship Series for the third straight season

1. CF Shane Robinson: 0-4 — 0-for-9 in the two games
2. LF Mark Payton: 3-4, 2 R, 1 3B — 4-for-8 with a triple and a (walk-off) homer in the series so far
3. SS Gio Urshela: 0-4, 1 RBI, 2 K — drove in a run with a ground out
4. 1B Ryan McBroom: 0-4
5. DH Mike Ford: 1-4, 2 K
6. RF Zack Zehner: 1-2, 1 BB, 1 K
7. 2B L.J. Mazzilli: 1-3
8. C Wilkin Castillo: 1-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K — he hit two homers in 41 regular season games after signing out of an independent league
9. 3B Rey Navarro: 0-3
LHP Nestor Cortes: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 13/2 GB/FB — 63 of 94 pitches were strikes (67%) … he lost the no-hitter with one out in the eighth on a ground ball single back up the middle … total dominance by Nasty Nestor … what a performance
RHP Chance Adams: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 1/0 GB/FB — nine of 12 pitches were strikes … he was on the schedule to pitch tonight, so Cortes wouldn’t have come out for the ninth even if the no-hitter was still intact

Double-A Trenton Thunder (10-4 loss to New Hampshire) they’re down two games to none in the best-of-five first round postseason series, so it’s win or go home time

1. 2B Gosuke Katoh: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K — led the game off with a homer … it was all downhill from there
PH Jeff Hendrix: 0-0, 1 RBI — pinch-hit sac fly
2. 3B Angel Aguilar: 0-5
3. 1B Brandon Wagner: 1-4, 1 K — 1-for-7 in the series so far
4. LF Trey Amburgey: 0-3, 1 BB — 0-for-7 in the series so far
5. SS Kyle Holder: 2-4, 1 R — 5-for-7 with a walk in the two games
6. RF Dom Thompson-Williams: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 K — led the farm system with 22 homers during the regular season … he joined Trenton for the postseason after spending the regular season in Tampa and Charleston
7. DH Jorge Saez: 2-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K
8. CF Rashad Crawford: 1-2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
PH Wendell Rijo: 1-1, 1 2B
9. C Chris Rabago: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 BB
RHP Nick Green: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 1 HB, 4/0 GB/FB — fourth time in his last six starts that he allowed at least five runs
LHP Phil Diehl: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 4/0 GB/FB — 24 of 36 pitches were strikes (67%) … including the regular season, he’s at 111/23 K/BB in 77.2 innings
RHP Jordan Foley: 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HB, 2/2 GB/FB — 29 of 42 pitches were strikes (69%) … 2014 fifth rounder finished the regular season with a 2.98 ERA and 67/35 K/BB in 66.1 innings
RHP Chase Hodson: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 0/2 GB/FB — 20 of 39 pitches were strikes (51%)
LHP Justin Kamplain: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 0/1 GB/FB — seven of 13 pitches were strikes … allowed both runners he inherited from Hodson to score … Green wasn’t good, but the bullpen allowed five runs in 6.1 innings to let the game get out of hand

The season is over for the High-A Tampa Tarpons, the Low-A Charleston RiverDogs, the Short Season Staten Island Yankees, the Rookie Pulaski Yankees, and the two Rookie GCL Yankees affiliates. None of those teams qualified for the postseason.