River Avenue Blues

Room to Grow

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

While Greg Bird’s year was essentially lost and Neil Walker’s was a roller coaster, things went just about as well as they could have for the Yankees’ youngest players, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar. Both turned in stellar debut seasons and are likely to finish in the top 3 of AL Rookie of the Year voting, with each having a case to win the award outright. But as always in baseball, there’s room to grow for both players.

At the plate, both flashed great power. Andujar hit 27 home runs and Torres added 24, just three fewer despite having 122 fewer  plate appearances. Both sported ISOs over .200, unsurprisingly, with Torres clocking in at .209 and Andujar at .230. That power wasn’t horribly surprising from Andjuar as he always had flashes of raw power that needed to–and did–turn into game power. From Torres, though, that was unexpected. With Torres’s power also came a relatively high strikeout rate of 25.2%.

That high mark is offset by his power and his walk rate–8.7%–was respectable enough that you could live with those strikeouts. Given that this was a bit of a power outburst for Torres that wasn’t necessarily expected, we may see a drop from that in 2019. If that’s the case, he’ll likely need to cut down on those swings a bit and maybe be a hair more selective at the plate. It might be worth cutting down on outs, even if it means cutting down on power. With Andujar, however, there’s no question that he needs to increase his selectivity and discipline at the plate.

Despite high power and a low strikeout rate–16% exactly–a 4.1% walk rate probably isn’t going to cut it long-term, especially when the league makes adjustments to Andujar as a hitter. He’ll need to adjust to those adjustments, or pitchers will exploit his aggressiveness at the plate, which could lead to an increase in strikeout rate and a drop in productivity. Miggy has power to spare and cutting down for the sake of fewer outs will help both him and the team.

The obvious place for both players to improve is in the field. FanGraphs rated their defense poorly, with Andujar clocking in at a 2005 Yankees-esque -15.5. Torres was “better” with a -7.2. Baseball Reference hit Miggy with a -2.2 dWAR, too, though they liked Torres’ defense at 0.5 dWAR. There’s no question that Andujar’s defense needs to get better or the Yankees will be forced to move him, whether to another position or to another team for a starting pitcher. I prefer the former. And even with that spread in Torres’ defense, he still could stand to get better. That proposition will be in the air as the Yankees adjust to Didi Gregorius’s impending absence. Will Torres get a chance to repeat at second or will they slide him back over to short? Given that they traded for Adeiny Hechavarria and had him play short when Didi was out at the end of the year, I imagine it’s likely that Torres stays at second. That’s probably good for his defensive outlook as he can continue becoming comfortable with that position at the highest level.

Both Torres and Andujar had spectacular years in 2018. Were they to repeat them for the rest of their careers, they’d be among the best players in the league each year. However, there is still room for growth on both sides of the ball. It’s tempting to dream on what each could become with just a little improvement.

2018 Offseason is Critical for Outlook of the Yankees

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The following is the first post from our newest writer, Bob Montano. You’ll see his work every Saturday morning here at RAB. You can follow Bob on Twitter at @mr_bobloblaw.

(Rob Carr/Getty)

The Yankees face many significant questions as they prepare for what will be their most important offseason in recent memory. Not only are Bryce Harper and Manny Machado younger and more talented than any players to hit the market in recent years, but the Yankees have clear areas to improve the roster. The team will need to find solutions to new problems in the infield now that Didi Gregorius will miss considerable time and it will need to add starting pitching. But any strategy the Yankees have for the offseason is based on whether or not Hal Steinbrenner is willing to flex his financial muscles to augment one of the most talented cores in all of baseball.

Team brass has been open about their goals to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and they finally accomplished that goal in 2018 for the first time by shaving $50 million off of 2017’s payroll, bringing the payroll to a total of $192.5 million. This does more than just save the Steinbrenners money: it also resets the penalty for exceeding the threshold to the minimum 20 percent for each dollar over as opposed to the maximum 50 percent the team had been paying. In other words, should the team exceed the $207 million threshold in 2019 by $10 million, they’d pay a $2 million tax instead of $5 million. It goes without saying that these numbers are significant at the scale of MLB payrolls and it is not clear if the Yankees are willing to take the financial hit.

Hal has long said that teams do not need a $200 million payroll to win the World Series and that has technically proven to be true – but the reality is that the league has changed in recent years. Many MLB teams have been reticent to add salary, treating the luxury tax as a de facto salary cap, and many teams simply don’t appear interested in spending to win. This presents an opportunity for the Yankees that they should not squander.

Not only do the Yankees have a roster that is as well-positioned for success over the next five years as any in baseball, but they are an exceptionally wealthy franchise. If most other teams are unwilling to spend – and we’ll have to see if this offseason is a repeat of last year’s, but I don’t expect many surprises – then the Yankees simply have no excuse to waste their biggest competitive advantage.

The Red Sox are a perfect illustration of why this is the case. Boston had a frustrating 2017, with a regular season that felt underwhelming — despite the team’s success on paper — and a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the eventual champion Houston Astros. A big reason it felt like the team was underwhelming was its offense, so the Red Sox aggressively pursued J.D. Martinez. They eventually signed him to a five-year, $110 million contract and he hit .330 with a wRC+ of 170 in 2018 alongside Boston’s formidable young core. Thanks in large part to JD’s exceptional season and Mookie Betts’ even better one, the Red Sox are poised to win the World Series after a regular season campaign netted them 108 wins. (For what it is worth, they have the league’s largest payroll by a wide margin.)

Boston was not the only team to follow this strategy to considerable success. The Milwaukee Brewers finished at 86-76 in 2017 and clearly saw an opportunity to improve, signing Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $80 million contract. The Brewers added $30 million in salary, and Cain hit .308 with a 124 wRC+ in 2018. Along with likely NL MVP Christian Yelich, Cain helped guide the Brewers to a 96 win season that ended in Game Seven of the NLCS. Much like the Red Sox, the Brewers aggressively added to their payroll and it paid dividends.

Mike estimates that the Yankees will have $50 million to spend after arbitration before surpassing the $206 million cap. That is a significant amount, but it will go fast – especially if the team pursues top talent like Bryce Harper, who is reportedly asking for a 10 year, $350 contract or Manny Machado, who will have similar demands. That is without the additional salary of a potential arm like Patrick Corbin or a lefty bat like Michael Brantley, let alone supporting depth pieces. It does not even consider the fact that key pieces like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino will get significant pay raises through arbitration over the next few years.

We’ve heard a lot about the need to cut salary in recent years, and the team has achieved that goal. Now, the Yankees are a very good team that is on the verge of being a great team — and spending on elite talent in the next few weeks might be the difference. But if they let this moment pass them by, they will have nobody to blame but themselves if they are sitting at home late in October again, watching their bitter rivals beating them at what was supposed to be their own game.

Friday Links: Gardner, Free Agents, NYPL Prospects, Severino

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(Al Bello/Getty)

Later tonight the 2018 World Series will resume with Game Three at Dodger Stadium. At this point it appears the question is not whether the Red Sox will win the World Series, but whether the Dodgers will win even one game. My guess is no. But we’ll see. Here are some links and notes to check out as the workweek winds down.

Gardner would “love to be back”

Not surprisingly, Brett Gardner recently said he would “love to be back” with the Yankees next season, reports Sean Farrell. “I’m not going to stand here and say that I don’t want to play anymore baseball. My body feels great. I feel healthy. I would love to be back. We’ll sit down and figure that out at the right time,” said Gardner. His contract includes a $12.5M option for next season with a $2M buyout, so the Yankees have a $10.5M decision to make.

Here’s our Gardner season review post. He finished at .236/.322/.368 (90 wRC+) this year but his defense and baserunning still made him a +2 WAR player. As a part-time player who gets maybe 300-350 plate appearances against righties and also plays defense in the late innings, I definitely think Gardner can still be a contributor to a championship caliber team. Left field is a little up in the air for the Yankees. I know they love Gardner and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him back next year, but they have to at least look for an upgrade first, right?

Bollinger, Kontos, Robinson elect free agency

Lefty Ryan Bollinger, righty George Kontos, and outfielder Shane Robinson have all elected free agency, reports Matt Eddy. All three players spent time with the Yankees this season and were later outrighted off the 40-man roster and sent to Triple-A (in Robinson’s case, multiple times), and had the ability to elect free agency after the season. I could totally see the Yankees re-signing Bollinger as a minor league organizational depth arm. Kontos and Robinson figure to look for teams that offer a greater MLB opportunity in 2019.

Bollinger, 27, had two one-day stints with the Yankees as an emergency long man but never did appear in a game. He threw 111.2 innings with a 3.87 ERA (3.46 FIP) for Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton this year. Bollinger spent 2014-17 in independent leagues and Germany before signing with the Yankees last winter. Kontos threw 1.2 scoreless innings in his only appearance in pinstripes this year after coming over from the Indians in a cash trade. Robinson got 54 plate appearances with the Yankees and that was entirely too many. He hit .143/.208/.224 (16 wRC+).

Contreras, Sauer among top NY-Penn League prospects

Baseball America (subs. req’d) has continued their annual look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league with the short season NY-Penn League. Astros OF Gilberto Celestino sits in the top spot. RHP Juan De Paula, who the Yankees acquired in the Ben Gamel trade and dealt away in the Andrew McCutchen trade, ranks fourth. RHP Roansy Contreras is fifth. A snippet of the scouting report:

Contreras, who has added 22 pounds since signing, has a low-90s fastball that touched as high as 96 mph this year. He backs it up with a downer curveball with 11-to-5 break and a promising changeup. He needs to work on finishing his delivery more often in order to drive his entire arsenal down in the zone, where it will be most effective. He also shows advanced pitchability for his age, and he could grow into a little more velocity.

Contreras is one of my favorite prospects in the system right now. He was the top Dominican pitcher available during the 2016-17 international signing period and the Yankees were able to sign him to a $300,000 bonus, their maximum allowed while still dealing with the penalties from their 2014-15 spending free. Love Roansy’s stuff and pitchability. Anyway, RHP Matt Sauer is 13th on the NYPL list. Here’s part of his scouting report:

Sauer’s fastball sits in the low 90s, but he can dial it up to 97 mph when he needs a little extra. His breaking pitch, a curveball, is currently average but has the potential to be a plus offering in the future … While he does feature a good fastball and developing curveball, scouts wonder if he is more of a finished product than many young arms. Sauer has time to hone his command, but the profile reads more as a back-end rotation piece.

In the chat, Justin Coleman (subs. req’d) had some good things to say about RHP Harold Cortijo. “Cortijo shows pitchability and is very athletic. Threw a lot of strikes, low 90’s FB that touches 94. His advanced fastball command is notable, needs to work on the breaker,” he wrote. The just turned 20-year-old Cortijo had a 2.63 ERA (3.29 FIP) with 29.1% strikeouts and 5.8% walks in 51.1 innings with Short Season Staten Island this summer.

Super Two cutoff set at 2.134

According to Jerry Crasnick, the Super Two service time cutoff has been set at two years and 134 days this offseason. (It is more commonly written as 2.134.) A player must be in the top 22% of service time between two and three years to qualify as a Super Two. The cutoff does move around each year but is generally around 2.120. I can’t remember the last time it was as high as 2.134 (that’s good for teams and bad for players). Anyway, that number is set.

The Yankees have one player who qualifies for Super Two this winter and he’s an important one: Luis Severino. Severino is at 2.170 of service time right now. He’s well over the Super Two cutoff. One-hundred-and-seventy-two days of service time counts as a full season, so Severino will miss qualifying for free agency by two days during the 2021-22 offseason. The Yankees kept him in Triple-A juuust long enough in 2016 to push back free agency. Gary Sanchez falls 48 days short of the Super Two cutoff this offseason. He’s closest to the cutoff after Severino.

A Season Without Jacoby Ellsbury [2018 Season Review]

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(Kathy Willens/AP)

The end of Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract was never going to be pretty. Players whose game revolves around their legs usually don’t age all that well. Once the speed starts to go, their value sinks. There are always exceptions, but yeah, once a speed dude starts to lose speed, he can go from valuable to useless in a hurry. The final few seasons of Ellsbury’s contract were always going to be ugly.

In 2018, year five of Ellsbury’s seven-year contract, we never got to see the speed. We didn’t get to see the speed, we didn’t get to see the defense, and we didn’t get to see whether Ellsbury could still contribute on even a part-time basis. A series of injuries, culminating with August hip surgery, prevented Ellsbury from taking the field this year. Zero games and zero plate appearances.

What’s worse, an older player declining and his contract keeping him on the roster, or an older player declining and sitting on the disabled list all season with injuries? With Ellsbury, we’ve seen a little of both in recent years. He was a man without a role in the 2017 postseason and he wasn’t even available to play in 2018. Let’s review what little bit of Ellsbury’s season we can.

The Injury Timeline

It’s not fair to say Ellsbury played zero games this year. He did play in Spring Training. Six games. Ellsbury went 1-for-14 (.071) with two walks and three strikeouts in six Grapefruit League games before his first injury. I couldn’t care less about the 1-for-14. Small sample and Ellsbury is a veteran player, and those dudes tend to go through the motions early in camp because they know what they have to do to get ready for the season. Here is video evidence Ellsbury did play baseball in 2018:

We didn’t know it at the time, but Ellsbury’s season effectively ended on March 2nd. He was scratched with tightness in his side and tests revealed a mild oblique strain. Even mild oblique strains can take weeks to heal. The Yankees had more outfielders than outfield spots at the time and Ellsbury’s injury seemed to temporarily clear up the logjam. Then the injuries kept mounting. Ellsbury’s timeline:

  • March 2nd: Scratched with a mild oblique strain.
  • April 3rd: Shut down with “a little something” in his hip and sent for a cortisone shot.
  • April 16th: Slowed with plantar fasciitis.
  • May 18th: Rehab work halted by an illness.
  • May 19th: Shut down with back trouble.
  • August 7th: Yankees announce Ellsbury needs season-ending hip surgery.

“Everything he’s had has been diagnosed legitimately by a doctor,” said Brian Cashman after the back trouble popped up. That’s a line Cashman once used to defend Carl Pavano. True story.

That “little something” in Ellsbury’s hip turned out to be a torn labrum, which is a rather serious injury. Alex Rodriguez had a torn labrum in his hip way back when. Several players have had surgery to repair their hip labrum in recent years. From what I understand, the injury is easier to detect and treat now than it was even ten years ago.

Ellsbury had his hip surgery in August and, at the time, the Yankees announced the rehab timetable as six months, and said Ellsbury is expected to be ready in time for Spring Training. Last week Cashman hedged a bit and told Brendan Kuty that Ellsbury could be healthy in time for Spring Training, but being ready to play on Opening Day is another matter.

Various injuries have limited Ellsbury to 520 of 810 possible regular season games in his five years as a Yankee. For all intents and purposes, Ellsbury had played three full seasons in the five seasons he’s been with New York. Knee trouble in 2015 and a concussion in 2017 sidelined him for an extended period of time. Ellsbury still has not played 150 games in a season in pinstripes.

You Know, The Yankees Could’ve Used Ellsbury At One Point

Remember when the Yankees had too many outfielders in Spring Training? Good times.  They did legitimately have more outfielders than roster spots, but those things have a way of taking care of themselves, and the outfield logjam sure took of itself early in the season. This was the outfield depth chart going into camp:

  1. Aaron Judge
  2. Giancarlo Stanton
  3. Aaron Hicks
  4. Brett Gardner
  5. Jacoby Ellsbury
  6. Clint Frazier
  7. Billy McKinney

Frazier and McKinney could go to Triple-A and the DH spot meant the Yankees could have those top four guys in the lineup every day. Ellsbury was fifth on the outfield depth chart on paper. In reality, he would’ve been the fourth outfielder on the bench. Instead, he got hurt in Spring Training. So did Frazier (concussion). Hicks (intercostal) and McKinney (shoulder) then got hurt in the very first series of the regular season. By April 7th, the ninth game of the regular season, the Yankees had Jace Peterson starting in left field. Oy vey.

There were two times this season in which the Yankees could’ve used Ellsbury, in fact. The first was in April, when Frazier and Hicks were hurt, and Peterson (and Shane Robinson) were starting in the outfield. The second was in August, when Judge and Frazier were out and Stanton was nursing his hamstring issue. The Yankees rolled with Robinson and Neil Walker in right field in August before trading for Andrew McCutchen. Could’ve used Ellsbury in August too.

What’s Next?

I think Ellsbury has played his final game as a Yankee. Granted, I thought the same thing about A-Rod when he got suspended in 2014, so I don’t really know what I’m talking about. But I think Ellsbury is at that point. There are two years and $47M remaining on his contract and that is within the established danger zone of being released despite a big contract. Consider some recent releases:

  • Carl Crawford: Released with two years and $35M remaining.
  • Hector Olivera: Released with three years and two months and $33M remaining.
  • Jose Reyes: Released with two years and $38M remaining.
  • Alex Rodriguez: Released with one year and two months and $28M remaining.
  • Pablo Sandoval: Released with two and a half years and $48M remaining.

The Yankees do have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract. They will reportedly be reimbursed 75% of his salary while he’s on the disabled list — that means they recouped about $15.9M of his $21.1M salary this year — and while Ellsbury’s full salary still counts against the luxury tax payroll, the Yankees do get money back. It’s a significant amount of money too. Losing Ellsbury for the full season didn’t hurt the bottom line too much.

The insurance is why I don’t think Ellsbury will be released this offseason. He had major hip surgery a few weeks ago and Cashman is already saying Ellsbury might not be ready to play come Opening Day 2019. If that is indeed the case, he goes back on the disabled list and the Yankees get that sweet insurance money. Once Ellsbury is healthy though, all bets are off. It’s hard to see there being room for him in the outfield and I don’t think the Yankees will make room for him on the roster if they don’t believe he can contribute.

We’ll see what happens with Ellsbury next year. Right now all we know is that he’s rehabbing from a major hip surgery and may not be ready in time for Opening Day. (No offense to the guy, but when’s the last time Ellsbury got hurt and returned when expected?) The Yankees won’t plan around him and, whenever he gets healthy, they’ll see where they’re at (is their outfield short due to injuries again?) and act accordingly. Ellsbury’s days in pinstripes are numbered. The end of his contract is drawing closer and it is entirely possible he will gone before then.

Mailbag: Shaw, Andujar, Catchers, Holder, Stroman, Indians

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There are ten questions in this week’s mailbag. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you should send all your mailbag questions each week. I’ll answer as many as I can stomach. (I kid, I kid.)

Fun Fact: Shaw’s nickname is The Mayor of Ding Dong City. (Dylan Buell/Getty)

John asks: Do you think the Brewers would make Travis Shaw available? He fits the Yankees great as he’s a good fielding third baseman with left-handed power who walks a lot. Also good first baseman and decent at second. He’s way cheaper than Machado. If Brewers are still interested in Sonny Gray, plus? What do you think gets this done?

Shaw’s turned into a much better defensive third baseman than I think anyone expected. The scouts and statheads thought he’d be average at best. Instead, the numbers have him comfortably above-average, so much so that the Brewers played him at second base following the Mike Moustakas trade. Moustakas is a free agent this winter and I’ve been assuming the plan is to put Shaw back at third and Jonathan Schoop at second next year.

Anyway, Shaw turns 29 in April and he’s under team control another three seasons, and he hit .241/.345/.480 (119 wRC+) with 32 homers and an 18.4% strikeout rate this season. He’d be a real nice get for the Yankees. Put him at third, at first, whatever. Will the Brewers trade him? They just had the best record in the National League and went to the NLCS, and they’re going to try to win again next year. If they are open to trading him, I would think Sonny Gray would be the second piece in a trade, not the headliner. If it were Gray and someone like Chance Adams, I’d do that in a heartbeat and the Yankees would as well. The non-Gray portion of the package might have to be significant.

Dan asks: Is it possible that some of these free agent players might not get as much money or years as we are all assuming? Which teams are going to pay Harper or Machado 300 plus million? A lot of teams are at the top of their payroll limits, not contending, or are smaller market teams that probably can’t swing a contract like that.

Every team can afford to pay Bryce Harper or Manny Machado north of $30M a year. Every single one. MLB teams are very good at convincing fans they don’t have as much as money as they really do. Harper and Machado are going to have, among others, the Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers after them. Can’t rule out the Red Sox, Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Giants, and Mariners either. Those two are not normal free agents. They are on the very short list of the best players in the world and they’re both only 26 years old. It is not often a prime-aged superstar hits the open market. I could see this argument for a second tier free agent like Patrick Corbin (will any team really give him $120M?) or Dallas Keuchel. Harper and Machado? Nah. They’re special cases. I expect both to break Giancarlo Stanton’s record for guaranteed money (with some opt-outs thrown in).

Hugo asks: Any chance the Yankees could move Andujar to second? Torres as a SS and then sign a 3B until DD returns.

I can’t see it. Miguel Andujar does play on the right side of the infield as part of the shift, but I don’t think he could do it full-time. The biggest knock on him defensively is his range, so moving him to the middle infield seems like a recipe for disaster. I suppose the Yankees could try it in Spring Training. What’s the worst that could happen? *suddenly remembers Rob Refnsyder taking grounders to the face when the Yankees tried him at third* It just doesn’t seem to me that Andujar has the skills for the middle infield. His range is limited and I have no idea how he’d handle the double play pivot. If the Yankees are going to move Andujar off third base, a move down the defensive difficulty spectrum to first base or the corner outfield seems most likely.

Douglas asks (short version): Given how often the Yankees were down to a 3 man bench in recent years and every team’s love for a Ben Zobrist-type player, do you think we’ll eventually see the day where backup catchers are asked to play at least one position in addition to catcher? I know in recent years, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine have faked first base but do you think we’ll eventually get beyond that?

Teams could try, but most catchers aren’t mobile enough to play other positions besides first base. Imagine watching some of these dudes try to chase down balls in the outfield gap? Goodness. Willson Contreras has played some left field and Austin Barnes has played some second base, though they’re really bad at it. Tony Wolters has also played some middle infield for the Rockies. The best example of this “backup catcher who can play other positions” concept might be Isiah Kiner-Falefa with the Rangers. He came up through the minors as a utility infielder who dabbled behind the plate, and this year he played at least 20 games at catcher, second base, and third base for Texas. Teams are always looking to increase versatility and we could see an increased effort to develop catcher capable utility guys. It’s just really hard to play the position well though. Guys who are good enough to catch tend to stick at the position because it’s very hard to fill and clubs want as many options there as possible.

John asks: If the idea is to go with a glove first, no bat SS, why not Kyle Holder?

The Yankees are trying to win and they need to do better than Holder. He’s a stud defensively, he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now and be very good at it, but I don’t think the bat is close to ready. Holder hit .257/.317/.350 (88 wRC+) in 48 games at High-A and Double-A around injuries this year. Put him in the big leagues next year and his slash line probably starts with 2s across the board. (For what it’s worth, PECOTA projected Holder as a true talent .234/.270/.360 big league hitter in 2018.) I do expect the Yankees to put Holder on the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft this winter, but if the Yankees are going all-glove/no-bat at short next year, it seems to me the better move would be to re-sign Adeiny Hechavarria or sign Jose Iglesias, get as good (likely better) production at a low cost, and let Holder continue his development at the appropriate minor league level.

Stroman. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Bertin asks: How much more value does two years of Marcus Stroman have than one year of Sonny Gray? As bad as Gray was in 2018, Stroman was even worse, but where Stroman’s problems can be attributed to his recovery from injury, Gray appears to have had a complete and total mental meltdown.

Stroman had a 5.54 ERA (3.91 FIP) with his typically excellent ground ball rate (62.1%) in 102.1 innings around shoulder trouble this year. His strikeout rate (17.2%) was a career low and his walk rate (8.0%) was a career high, though they weren’t that far out of line with his career norms. I’d definitely bet on Stroman rebounding next year before Gray. A Yankees-Blue Jays trade would be complicated — this wouldn’t be a non-contender trading an impending free agent like the J.A. Happ deal — but I really like the idea of buying low on Stroman (he’s short and from Long Island and went to Duke, you know). Could the Yankees build a trade package around Gray? Eh. Hard for me to see why the Blue Jays would trade two years of Stroman for one year of Gray without getting significant secondary pieces as well.

Seth asks: Am I crazy to think that Gio Urshela would be a perfect Andujar defensive replacement/backup infielder? Great defender and he actually hit in Triple-A with Scranton.

Well, Urshela hit well with Scranton (129 wRC+), but his track record suggests he’s nothing more than a Quad-A hitter. Which is fine for a bench player, I think. I wouldn’t want him playing everyday even with his glove. As a bench guy though? It could work. If the Yankees shift Gleyber Torres to shortstop and replace Didi Gregorius with a second baseman, they’d need a shortstop capable infielder on the bench. Urshela can do that. He’s played a bunch of shortstop over the years. I don’t know that I’d call him (or anyone, really) the perfect backup infielder, but Urshela could work in that role, sure.

Matthew asks: With talks about the Yankees going after Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, and Sabathia probably coming back, that leaves 3 lefties in the rotation. Not to mention Montgomery at some point. How many lefties do you really think we will have. Meaning, do the Yanks sign Corbin and Happ and Sabathia, or just 2 out of 3. Does it even matter?

I wouldn’t worry about it at all. Get good pitchers regardless of handedness. Besides, the Yankees need quality lefties in their rotation to (hopefully) limit the damage caused by the short porch. The history of the Yankees is littered with dominant lefty starters. Whitey Field, Ron Guidry, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, etc. If the Yankees have three or four lefties in the rotation at some point, so be it. Not worried at all. It’s not like Patrick Corbin (tons of sliders), Happ (tons of fastballs), Sabathia (cutters and sliders), and Jordan Montgomery (kitchen sink) are similar in style. They just throw with the same hand. Not worried about #toomanylefties at all.

Zachary asks: Looking to the off-season, it would appear the Indians could use a solid regular outfielder, while the Yankees could be in the market for pitching. Judge and Stanton aren’t going anywhere, and Frazier was already dealt from Cleveland, but would Cleveland have interest in Hicks? What would a deal look like given Hick’s looming free agency?

I am certain the Indians would have interest in Aaron Hicks. I am certain a lot of teams would have interest in Aaron Hicks. Switch-hitting center fielders with power and on-base ability and above-average defense are incredibly valuable. The Indians don’t have a clearly defined center fielder right now (Bradley Zimmer had major shoulder surgery in July to treat an injury initially suffered on a play at Yankee Stadium) and their window is starting to close. They have to win right now and Hicks would improve their chances of winning the 2019 World Series considerably.

The Indians have five quality starting pitchers in place for next season (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber) and the Yankees should start any conversation with those dudes. Obviously Kluber and Carrasco are incredibly unlikely. Bauer’s an insufferable tool, which leaves Clevinger and Bieber. If the Yankees are going to trade Hicks, that’s where they have to start. Ask for the young starting pitcher and find out what needs to be added to get a deal done. Also, shop Hicks around! If the Yankees are open to trading him, they have to canvas the league for the best deal, not focus on the Indians just because they happen to need a center fielder.

Jeff asks: Would the Yankees have had any interest in Alex Cora last offseason? If NYY lost to MIN in the WC game, could/would they have beaten BOS to the punch?

The Yankees never had a chance to interview Cora. Cora was the Astros bench coach last year and he interviewed with the Red Sox on October 15th, the off-day between Games Two and Three of the ALCS, according to Jason Mastrodonato. Boston announced his hiring on October 22nd, the day after Game Seven, so the deal was done before the ALCS even ended. (Yes, Cora was Houston’s bench coach in the World Series even after being named Red Sox manager.)

It’s impossible to say whether the Yankees would’ve had interest in interviewing Cora last winter. Given their list of managerial candidates (largely younger new school types), I think they would’ve expressed interest. Cora’s name had been circulating in “potential future manager” circles for years. He wasn’t a surprise candidate. Cora’s had the golden touch this year. Every move is working and he’s managed circles around everyone (Aaron Boone, A.J. Hinch, Dave Roberts) this postseason. Had the Yankees been knocked out of the postseason earlier, yeah, maybe they could’ve beaten the Red Sox to Cora. We’ll never know for certain though.

Laying out the Yankees’ payroll situation for 2019

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

No later than one week from yesterday, the 2018 World Series will end and the 2018-19 offseason will begin. The Yankees have more heavy lifting to do this winter than I think they would like. Blame injuries (Didi Gregorius, Jordan Montgomery) and poor performance (Sonny Gray). The rotation will be a “focus point.” Don’t sleep on the infield and even the bullpen too.

We don’t know how much the Yankees will spend this winter and we don’t know their payroll limit for next season. The Yankees reset their luxury tax rate this season and Brian Cashman indicated he has to seek approval from Hal Steinbrenner to exceed the luxury tax threshold next year. We know the Yankees can support a $240M payroll. They did it just last year. The franchise could almost certainly support a payroll much higher than that. They choose not to. C’est la vie.

Since the Yankees are counting pennies these days, I figured I’d be good to lay out the payroll situation for this offseason and next season. The Yankees operate in the world of the luxury tax. They’re more concerned with luxury tax hits than actual salary, so this is an estimate of the luxury tax payroll. Here’s what the Yankees have on the books for next season:

  • Masahiro Tanaka: $22.14M
  • Giancarlo Stanton: $22M
  • Jacoby Ellsbury: $21.86M
  • Aroldis Chapman: $17.2M
  • Arbitration-Eligibles: $45.1M (projected)
  • Pre-Arbitration-Eligibles: $13M (estimated)
  • Miscellaneous: $15M (estimated)

That all adds up $156.3M and that, in theory, covers the entire 40-man roster. In reality, it doesn’t even cover the 25-man roster because the Yankees aren’t going to plug three kids making the minimum behind Tanaka and Luis Severino in the rotation. I mean, they could, but I’d bet against it. The luxury tax threshold jumps to $206M next year, so, based on this, the Yankees have $49.7M to spend this winter. That’s a lot! Let’s talk out the payroll.

1. Wait, only four guaranteed contracts? Really? Really. I was shocked. The Yankees shed Brett Gardner ($13M), David Robertson ($11.5M), CC Sabathia ($10M), J.A Happ ($4.32M) Neil Walker ($4M), Lance Lynn ($2.03M), and Andrew McCutchen ($1.26M) this offseason. They’re all free agents. Tanaka, Stanton, Ellsbury, and Chapman are the only remaining guaranteed contracts on the books. Pretty wild. That’ll of course change once the Yankees start signing free agents and making trades. Those guys becoming free agents have to be replaced.

2. What about Gardner’s option? Yeah, don’t forget about this. Gardner’s contract includes a $12.5M club option with a $2M buyout for next season. It’s a $10.5M decision. I really have no idea what the Yankees will do. Declining it seems like an easy decision given his second half — even if the Yankees want to bring Gardner back, they’d be able to do so at a lower salary than the option, right? — but the Yankees love love love Gardner. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them pick it up, honestly.

Anyway, as far as the luxury tax goes, the Yankees have already been taxed on the $2M buyout. It is guaranteed money and it was lumped into the average average value of Gardner’s contract these last few years. Declining the option has no luxury tax impact next year. The $2M has be paid to Gardner, but it doesn’t get charged to next season (or this season). It’s already been taxed. Here’s what the Collective Bargaining Agreement says about the option being exercised:

Article XXIII(E)(5)(b)(ii): Potential Adjustment to Payroll
Notwithstanding subparagraph (b)(i) above, if the Player ultimately does not receive the Option Buyout, then for the Contract Year covered by that option, no portion of the Buyout shall be included in any Club’s final Actual Club Payroll. In addition, any Club whose final Actual Club Payroll in a previous Contract Year had included that Buyout (or a portion thereof) will receive a deduction (in the full amount of the Buyout included in previous Contract Years) in its final Actual Club Payroll in the Contract Year covered by that option.

In English, that means Gardner’s luxury tax hit for next season would be $10.5M should the Yankees pick up the option. They get to subtract out the $2M buyout from the $12.5M salary because they’ve already been taxed on it. Got it? Good. I’m leaving Gardner out of the 2019 payroll estimate right now because he’s technically not under contract for next season.

3. What about Sonny Gray? He’s a goner. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it any more clear at his end-of-season press conference. Gray will get traded this winter, he’ll go somewhere else and pitch well, and the Yankees won’t care one bit. The organization’s frustration with Sonny was almost palpable this year. Cashman, Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild … they’re all over Gray. They’ll trade him this winter and won’t look back.

MLBTR projects a $9.1M salary for Gray next season and that is included into the estimate above because, well, he’s on the roster. He hasn’t been traded yet. Once the Yankees trade Sonny, we’ll circle back and adjust our 2019 payroll estimate. There’s a pretty good chance the Yankees will take back salary in a Gray trade (it might even be a payroll neutral trade) so shedding that $9.1M might not be as cut-and-dried as it may seem.

4. Where’d you get $13M for pre-arb players? I based it on this year’s payroll. According to our math, the Yankees spent $8,889,531.81 on pre-arbitration players and $3,904,834.64 on miscellaneous players (Shane Robinson, David Hale, etc.) this year. I added those two numbers together and rounded up. See how easy that is?

In all seriousness, I’m comfortable assuming next season’s pre-arbitration players will cost a similar amount as this year’s. The league minimum doesn’t increase much ($545,000 to $555,000) and the Yankees had a ton of injury call-ups throughout the year. That last part is important. This estimate includes minor league salaries and injury call-ups and September call-ups and all that. We don’t have to set aside anything for that. To use my favorite Boone-ism, it’s all baked into the cake.

5. What are those miscellaneous costs? The Yankees paid $6M to players no longer on the Yankees this past season. They paid $5.5M of Brian McCann’s salary and they paid half the $1M bonus Chase Headley received when he was traded. That $6M is off the books now. At the moment, the Yankees do not owe any money to players on other teams.

That $15M estimate for miscellaneous expenses is tied up in two things: Stanton’s award bonuses and benefits. Every club chips in toward player benefits and this year that amount was $14,0444,600. That counts against the luxury tax and the number increases a little each season. Stanton has $325,000 in potential bonuses in his contract and those also count against the luxury tax payroll. Add the bonuses with the increased benefits expenditure and you get $15M or so.

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Based on all that above, the Yankees have about $50M to spend this winter before hitting the $206M luxury tax threshold next season. It could be more depending on the Gray trade and it could be less depending on Gardner’s option. Hal could always approve a higher payroll as well and I hope he does because there are some premium free agents out there. The Yankees have money and the window ain’t getting any more open. If they’re not going to exceed the luxury tax threshold now to sign some top free agents, when will they?