So here’s a fun puzzle to play with a pair rumors from Joel Sherman. First, he says via Twitter, that the Cubs “want Mike Cameron for CF, but so might Yankees, which could be interesting since Cubs like Melky Cabrera.” Then, in his next update, he says that a team official from a club interested in Curtis Granderson believes the Yanks “really want” the 28-year-old for their outfield. So what do you think? Sign Cameron for a short deal, acquire Granderson and flip Melky to the Cubs for some prospects? If only it were that simple.
Yanks like Soriano, but probably won’t sign him
During their organizational meetings, the Yankees will likely discuss all free agent pitchers and left fielders. Some will make more sense than others, but the Yanks will discard most of the names as unrealistic for any number of reasons. One name I thought would make the scrap heap is Rafael Soriano. He’s probably the most attractive free agent relief pitcher, and adding him as Mariano Rivera’s setup man would help the bullpen. There are other factors, however, that make Soriano less attractive to the Yankees.
In the last line of his latest article, George King notes that Soriano’s arm “has seduced some Yankee scouts.” That’s no surprise. He’s a strikeout machine while healthy, gassing hitters with a 93 mph fastball mixed with a slider. At his best, Soriano could close for most MLB teams. And, as Chris at iYankees notes, Soriano is no Kyle Farnsworth. That’s fine, but it doesn’t take into account the other factors that negatively affect Soriano.
Draft pick compensation is one of those issues. As Brian Cashman said on Tuesday, the team doesn’t plan to sign a Type A free agent setup man, because it would cost them their first round pick. For certain players, that pick is just a marginal cost of acquisition. When you want to add CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, or Mark Teixeira to your roster, you pay the draft pick tax without question. But when you get to players who will have less of an impact, it becomes more of a consideration.
Working against Soriano is his injury history. He stayed relatively healthy in 2009, missing time with a sore shoulder that didn’t require a DL trip. In 2008, however, he wasn’t so lucky, pitching just 14 innings while dealing with elbow troubles. These aren’t small issues. A hard-throwing reliever with arm problems is not someone to whom you want to commit many years and dollars. When there’s a draft pick tax attached on top of that, it’s a sign to stay clear.
Best case scenario, Soriano would give the Yankees the best setup man-closer combo in the game. But there are many other factors to consider beyond Soriano’s talent. There’s the cost of acquisition, consisting of total salary, luxury tax implications, and draft pick compensation. Is that worth the risk of Soriano missing even more time with arm troubles? I don’t think so. I’d love to see Soriano gassing guys in the eighth, but the cost of acquiring him is just too great.
Photo: Paul Spinelli / Getty Images
Is Damon a fit for the Giants?
Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News assesses some potential Giants targets this off-season. We know that that the team needs bats, especially in the outfield. Could Johnny Damon be part of their plans?
Johnny Damon is interesting. He could address the Giants’ leadoff dilemma and he certainly fits the profile of a veteran that Sabean loves: A winner and all-around player who’s battle-tested in playoff environments. But the Giants didn’t have any conversations with anyone in Scott Boras’ camp at the GM meetings in Chicago, and I don’t think they’ll overbid for his services. Plus, while I’m told Damon would go anywhere, I have a hard time believing he’d just pack up and go to an NL team for the first time in his career.
Baggarly notes that owner Bill Neukom “has prioritized the farm system,” which means the Giants could tread lightly with the bigger bats, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, because both would cost them their 24th pick. I’m not sure that will be an obstacle in adding a significant bat. If the Giants think that either player could turn their team into a serious contender, the draft pick cost becomes marginal.
Concerning Damon, he might not be a great fit for the Giants. Much of Damon’s value in 2009 came from home runs, and most of them came at Yankee Stadium, where the right field porch sits just 314 feet away. AT&T Park suppresses home runs (though is not really a pitchers’ park otherwise), especially for lefties — Bonds just made it look easy. True, he’d still provide the Giants value, but is he potentially more valuable to the Giants than he is to the Yankees? I’m not so sure. The Giants might inquire, but I don’t see them offering more than the Yanks, unless the Yanks either don’t want Damon back (for whatever reason) or lowball him.
We’re going to see Damon’s name connected to many teams this off-season. It’s part of having Scott Boras as your agent. Some destinations will make more sense than others, but in this case I don’t think the Giants will make a serious push for Damon. While he’d help, the home run suppression at AT&T Park makes him less valuable to them. They might even seek out Mike Cameron over Damon.
Olney: Matsui’s marketability not a factor
Baseball teams dream of signing players who pay for themselves. It’s a rarity, of course, but a player like Hideki Matsui, as the Yankees learned over the past seven years, brings with him marketing opportunities from Japan which help off-set a portion of his contract. Because the Yankees generate revenue just from having Matsui on the team, they’re essentially getting a discount on him. That has to be an important factor in the Yankees’ decision on whether to bring him back, right?
As Ben noted, the Yankees could lose an estimated $15 million if Matsui signs elsewhere. I can’t verify the accuracy of that number, so let’s use it merely as a rough starting point. If the Yankees would lose $15 million by letting Matsui go, they could theoretically pay him $15 million per season and break even. Yet, apparently that will not factor into their decision, notes Buster Olney on Twitter.
Heard this: Matsui’s attraction as a marketable asset is no factor for the Yankees. It is about getting the right player at the right price.
I agree that the Yankees should look first for the right player. That’s the most important consideration of all. If they feel that Matsui isn’t the right player for the 2010 lineup, then his marketability should not be a factor. No one wants to lose the $15 million, but the Yankees have to consider what’s best for the team first.
If Matsui is the right player to hold down the DH spot in 2010, however, marketability should certainly play a role. If the Yankees get an essential $15 million bonus for having Matsui on the team, that should play into his salary. Not that he should get the whole $15 million. There are other factors involved, notably the luxury tax. Then there’s the idea of market value, and with quite a few DHs on the market and not too many free DH slots, Matsui’s market could resemble Bobby Abreu’s from last year.
So yes, Buster is right — and obviously so — that the Yankees want the right player at the right price. I’m just not sure that Matsui’s marketability will be “no factor” in the decision. It might not factor into whether or not he’s the right player, but if the Yankees decide he is, it will certainly factor into the price they pay for him.
What the Blue Jays seek for Halladay
Don’t expect the Roy Halladay rumors to fade away anytime soon. Until the Blue Jays trade their ace, he’ll remain atop the baseball conversation topics. That could be sometime soon, or it could last all the way until July 31. Because the Yankees are the richest team in baseball and perpetually hunt for pitching, stories about Halladay will involve them. I’m already resigned to a few months of Halladay speculation.
We know the suitors. The Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Phillies and even the Mets will factor into the process. A smaller market team might get involved later in the process, but at this point it would be an upset for Halladay to land with anyone else. What we don’t know, though, is Toronto’s asking price. Writers have addressed it, picking out the top prospects from the involved teams. But do those players fit with Toronto’s many needs?
In his National Post column, Jeremy Sandler writes of a modern day reality. As we know, “there will be a whole lot of unfounded and unrealistic talk as the process goes on, especially in an Internet age where even the flimsiest premise can gain traction if repeated enough times.” I’d like to continue this tradition by repeating a rumor Sandler introduces just a few paragraphs later. It’s not completely new, but it might offer some perspective on Toronto’s asking price.
The Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.
That sounds like an awful lot to ask for a 33-year-old pitcher who will earn close to $16 million and is a year away from free agency. Yet Sandler leaves the terms ambiguous enough for us to wonder what players fill those needs. After all, it’s one thing to be a major league ready bat, but it’s another to be a major league ready bat with serious potential.
Both the Yankees and the Red Sox fill the major league ready arm requirement. The Yankees have Chamberlain and Hughes, while the Sox have Clay Buchholz. Neither team wants to trade those young, controllable arms, but perhaps would consider it for Halladay. Both teams also have high-ceiling prospects in the lower minors, who would presumably fill the “plus prospects” portion of the deal. But what of the major league ready bat?
Some scouts consider Jesus Montero’s bat ready for the majors, though his catching skills still need seasoning. As Jon Heyman tweets, the Jays like Montero. Then again, all 30 teams probably like him. I won’t harp on this, since we’ve said it dozens of times before, but both Montero and one of Hughes an Chamberlain is too much. One reason is that all three have high ceilings. Another is that trading one means the Yankees are upgrading from one to Halladay. How much is that upgrade worth? I don’t think it’s worth one of those pitchers and Montero.
The question from Boston’s end is of who can fill that major league bat parameter? Lars Anderson isn’t major league ready. Nor is Casey Kelly. Josh Reddick is, and perhaps the Sox would trade him and Buchholz for Halladay. But would the Jays accept that? I guess that depends on how the market develops. If the Red Sox plan to snag Halladay early, though, that probably won’t get it done.
For the Yanks, Austin Jackson would fit the major league ready bat bill. But with Vernon Wells stuck in Toronto for the forseeable future, it’s uncertain whether the Jays would add another center fielder. That brings us back to Montero, at which point the Yankees would probably want to substitute Hughes or Chamberlain for a lesser pitching prospect, probably Zack McAllister. At that point, the Jays would probably decide to sit and wait.
There are other suitors, and perhaps those teams are willing to part with players that match the Jays’ parameters. As it concerns the Yankees, they certainly have the pieces required to land Halladay. The question is of whether they’d be willing to surrender them. Jesus and Hughes/Chamberlain seems like too much. Jackson and one of the pitchers doesn’t seem to fit the Jays’ needs. Jesus and McAllister is more reasonable from the Yankees standpoint, but not much meet Toronto’s requirements.
I ultimately agree with Ken Rosenthal on this issue. “It would be an upset if [Halladay negotiations] ended anytime soon.”
For Halladay, cost would include Phil or Joba
As Roy Halladay continues to hover above this off-season as Johan Santana did two years ago, the Blue Jays’ demands for him are coming into view. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Alex Anthopoulous, the new Toronto GM, will have to make a splash if he ships out Halladay. He’ll need a good, young, sure bet to take Halladay’s place and set Toronto on the path to AL East competitiveness.
With that in mind, it is clear that any trade talks with the Yanks would involve the names Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes being bandied about. After all, these are two kids who can get out AL East hitters while pitching in pressure-packed stadiums in New York and Boston. What GM wouldn’t try to demand one of the two from Brian Cashman?
Yesterday, in his regular Sunday round-up in the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo confirmed that the Jays would readily give up Halladay for Phil or Joba. He wrote:
The Yankees could easily get into the Roy Halladay hunt if they’re willing to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, which they apparently are. The one player they’d love to hold on to is Austin Jackson, their future center fielder who could keep their outfield costs low.
This is a tantalizing tidbit from Cafardo for so many reasons, and as we like to talk about rumors, talk about it we shall. First, Cafardo casually mentions that the Yankees are “apparently” willing to part with Hughes or Joba. This unsourced development is a drastic turnaround from recent years when the Yankees have not wanted to let any of their young pitchers out of their grasp, and I’m not so sure I believe it here.
As with Santana, Roy Halladay comes with one year guaranteed and the option to negotiate for more. He will be 33 on Opening Day, a good four years older than Santana was on Opening Day 2008 when he made his Mets debut, and while Halladay may be more durable and better equipped to deal with the rigors of age than Santana, the Yanks would be acquiring one year of an old pitcher for a few years of Joba or Phil. If it didn’t make sense a few years ago before we had a better sense of what Joba or Phil could do, it doesn’t make too much sense now.
Next, Cafardo’s belief that Austin Jackson is “the one player” the Yanks would love to hold on to seemingly flies in the face of conventional wisdom. While Cafardo mentions Jesus Montero in another paragraph about the Yanks’ catching prospects, I find it hard to believe that Montero would be made available over Austin Jackson. Montero has a better bat and plays one of the key up-the-middle positions. Jackson profiles as a future center fielder, but Montero ranks higher up on my the Yanks’ prospects list. I’d be far more open to moving A-Jax than I would Montero (or Hughes and Joba, for that matter).
Cafardo’s piece allows us to confirm the high price for Halladay, but anyone following the Blue Jays would know it already. I don’t believe the Yanks intend to trade Phil or Joba for Halladay, and I don’t think the team should.
Dodgers a possibility for Wang?
The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is December 12, just a few weeks away. The Yankees will have decisions to make on a few players, including Melky Cabrera, Brian Bruney, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre. Chances are the Yankees will offer arbitration to all four, though I still think there’s a chance they’ll non-tender Bruney. The biggest decision they face, though, is on Chien-Ming Wang. The Taiwanese righty might have already thrown his last pitch in pinstripes.
We learn this morning, via MLBTR, that Wang would consider pitching for the Dodgers. Really, he’ll probably consider pitching for all 30 teams, but the Dodgers have a comfort factor. Wang, always described as shy, would have not only two familiar coaches in Joe Torre and Larry Bowa (Don Mattingly, too), but he’d also have former schoolmate Hong-Chih Kuo. In picking his 2010 team, that will probably play a part for Wang.
Just because there’s a connection, of course, doesn’t mean that Wang is ready to don Dodger blue. If the Yankees do non-tender him, and the prevailing opinion in the NYC media is that they will, Wang and his agent Alan Nero will seek the best possible deal. Familiarity might help in that regard, making the Dodgers a strong possibility. And there’s no ruling out Wang re-signing with New York.
I’ve read opinions that the Yankees have mistreated Wang, though I don’t exactly buy that. They didn’t offer him a long-term deal, instead taking him to arbitration over $600,000 in 2008. It was a wise move by the Yankees. Wang, as we know, had two shoulder injuries before 2008, and the Yankees were proceeding with caution. The team and player then acted quickly last off-season, signing a one-year, $5 million deal before Christmas. Wang’s season-ending injury certainly had something to do with that.
It’s hard to see signs of disrespect in that. Not every pitcher gets a long-term deal from his original club. Some teams prefer to take that route, as the Giants did with Matt Cain. Others like to proceed with caution, especially with pitchers who have an injury history. Such has been the Yankees’ dealing with Wang. Now they’ll have another set of negotiations with Wang, presumably over a lesser contract that will bring him back for 2010.
Most of us, I think, would like to see Chien-Ming Wang back in pinstripes next season. We’ve seen him at his best, and if he can return to that level, or something near it, he can fortify the Yankees’ rotation mid-season. The Yankees have many factors to weigh in this decision, including the cost of keeping Wang around, weighed against the risk that he’ll fail. It’s doubtful Wang makes more than $6 million next season in arbitration, and my guess is that if the Yankees do tender him a contract that they’ll work out a one-year deal before the February arbitration hearings.
I think the Yankees have little to lose by offering Wang arbitration. That ensures that if he does return to form, it will be to the Yankees’ benefit. It’s essentially a $6 million bet on his health, though, and without his medicals in hand it’s impossible to make that decision. The Yankees have seen them, or else will see them. I trust they’ll make the right call.
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