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What if Manny Banuelos finally delivered and we weren’t watching?

April 10, 2019 by Steven Tydings

You can be forgiven for not watching the middle innings of Rays-White Sox on Tuesday afternoon.

I mean, it’s a Tuesday afternoon. Even if you’re an obsessed scoreboard watcher of AL East contenders such as myself, you’re more likely to focus on the Red Sox’s opener with Chris Sale on the hill. The Rays have been better, but it’s early April … and they’re playing the White Sox.

Furthermore, the game was already a blowout with Tampa Bay hitting three homers in the first three innings and knocking out Ervin Santana with seven runs in the first four frames. This, however, is all about what came next, the pitcher who came in after Santana: Manny Banuelos.

For 3 1/3 innings, Banuelos was everything we dreamed he would be. He struck out four, allowed three baserunners and held the Rays off the board, keeping the Sox in the game. Tampa couldn’t get the ball in the air outside of one pop out and Banuelos had them swinging and missing at his offspeed stuff. The southpaw was the only pitcher to retire Austin Meadows on the outfielder’s career day.

Despite yesterday’s outing, Banuelos represents a story of promise and failure around these parts. In the next wave of prospects after the Big Three, Banuelos topped Yankees’ prospect lists at the same time as Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman. With Betances ticketed for relief and Brackman flaming out, Banuelos was the best hope for a homegrown ace.

Banuelos was poised to fulfill that potential despite a 5-foot-11 frame. He reached Triple-A at 20 years old in 2011. He was the No. 13 prospect before the 2012 season according to MLB.com and Baseball America ranked him No. 29, his second straight year in the top 50. Mariano Rivera called him the best pitching prospect he’d ever seen, forebodingly in the same article that he discussed Brien Taylor.

As with nearly every pitcher with a mid-90s fastball, Banuelos succumbed to injuries, though they came at the worst time for the lefty. He struggled with injuries in 2012 and eventually had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. The left-hander was never the same in the Yankees’ system and was traded to Atlanta for relievers before the 2015 season.

He had success in Atlanta, although briefly. His best career outing was his debut in 2015, where he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings and struck out the NL MVP, Bryce Harper, all three times he faced him.

But then bone spurs came for Banuelos and he’s bounced between both Los Angeles teams and now to Chicago, still searching for his breakthrough at age 28.

And that brings up back to Tuesday. Banuelos looked like a version of his old self, the one we all heard about but never saw in pinstripes. The mid-90s heat is gone, but he’s making do with a low-90s sinker and still has the curve, slider and changeup. Look at this slider!

To end his outing, he gave up his only hit, a seeing-eye single to Tommy Pham, but the southpaw picked off Pham a pitch later. After getting confirmation that the Rays wouldn’t challenge, Banuelos walked off the field, stretched his glove into the air and put it down to his lips while looking skyward, seemingly thanking the heavens as his day was done and perhaps with the relief of having a clean performance.

Already on the wrong side of 25, Banuelos’ prospect shine is long gone. The idea of him headlining a rotation just isn’t in the cards. But that’s OK. Even if Banuelos hadn’t cracked the rebuilding Chicago roster this year, he’d have ended his career a Major Leaguer. There could be even brighter days ahead, and he even gets to finally pitch at Yankee Stadium this weekend, nearly a half-decade after he was unceremoniously traded.

As for us, the Yankee faithful, Banuelos is a permanent lesson of the tantalizing pitching prospect. He wasn’t flawless, particularly his height, but he was the no-doubt pitcher of the time. We’ve had to adjust our concept of pitching prospects and you’ll see that reflected on Baseball America and the like; Most evaluators have begun shying away from populating tops of lists with pitchers. No matter how good a 20-year-old pitcher looks, they’re one injury away from missing out or plateauing.

For one day though, in front of a sparse crowd of 10,799 fans, the promise of Manny Banuelos came through again . Too late for the Yankees? Surely. But it’s fulfilling nonetheless to see the prospect dreams of the last decade live, even if it’s just a random Tuesday in April.

Why Yankees-Astros hasn’t turned into a full-fledged rivalry

April 9, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Goliath and his friend, David. (Getty Images)

Two years ago, the Astros visited the Bronx for an exciting four-game, regular-season series which led to my guess that Yankees-Astros was the next great MLB rivalry (outside of Yankees-Red Sox, of course).

Since that article, the two teams have played a seven-game ALCS and two hard-fought, regular-season series going into this week. They’ve been must-watch games in the sense that any game between two of the best teams in the league are must-watch.

But has this become a rivalry in a real sense?

There are a few criteria which are hallmarks for a rivalry: Close postseason matchups, marquee players that are villainized on the other side, proximity or enough in-season matchups, sustained success for both franchises concurrently and, finally, the intangible hatred born out of nothing in particular.

The Yankees and Astros have the first criteria down pat thus far. The two teams were pitted against one another in the postseason twice, once in the winner-take-all 2015 Wild Card Game and a second time in the 2017 ALCS, both going the Astros’ way. In 2017, Games 2 and 4 were classics and Game 7 was close into the middle innings.

With a weak American League field, the chance of another New York-Houston showdown is high. Say what you want about the Mariners’ 10-2 start, but the Astros are an overwhelming favorite to win their division for at least the next two seasons. The Yankees have to contend with the Red Sox and Rays in the East, but they’re still highly likely to make the postseason, which either pits them directly against Houston or forces each team to win a series to meet in the ALCS. Not guaranteed, but easy to imagine.

Marquee players, each team has more than enough. Aaron Judge may be the face of baseball while Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander are veritable stars themselves. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Gerrit Cole are also top-tier talents. Giancarlo Stanton had the largest contract in baseball until a month ago while Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are on the cusp of becoming household names.

When I wrote this the first time, I thought Dallas Keuchel could play the villain for New York. He’d dominated the Yankees time and time again, including in the Wild Card Game, and he provided a nemesis, albeit without the charisma of Pedro Martinez.

With Keuchel a free agent and unlikely to come back to Houston, there are two candidates coming to mind: Bregman and Verlander. Bregman has the confidence of a superstar and isn’t afraid to let anyone know. He hadn’t quite hit the spotlight in 2017, but he owns it now, likely surpassing Correa. When it comes to the Yankees, it’s not hard to imagine him failing to hold his tongue when saying he thinks Houston is better.

Verlander goes without saying. He was the 2017 ALCS MVP and his first taste of the postseason was helping to eliminate the Yankees in 2006. The future Hall of Famer is now locked into Houston through 2021 and though he’ll be 38 that season, he still possesses top-of-the-rotation talent. He holds a certain amount of real estate in Yankee fans’ heads.

The regular season matchups between the two clubs have been consistently close and entertaining in recent seasons. The teams, however, are limited to a maximum of seven regular-season contests, as opposed to the 19 times of a division opponent. That’s a dozen fewer times to create familiarity and contempt, to find two teams pointing fingers and throwing hands in a brawl gone viral.

As for that intangible, there was the Judge-Altuve MVP battle of 2017 that caused some consternation on each side. The photo of them, adorning this article up top, from the 2017 season is a lasting image superimposing the extremes of baseball stardom, though it hasn’t translated into a linkage of the two teams.

Still, the Yankees and Astros remain on a collision course for the next few years. Predicting beyond the next five is a pointless exercise, so you can even say for the foreseeable future. Each team knows the other stands in the way of their World Series goals, thus heightening their matchups.

Is all of that good enough for a rivalry? Right now, no, just a handful of entertaining games a season. Houston may be the Yankees’ second or third-biggest rival for a title, but fans aren’t adding curse words to the opposition’s middle names. There just hasn’t been that intangible. As a Yankee fan, you know in your bones you hate the Red Sox and can even churn up some feelings for the Orioles, Blue Jays or Rays during a period of sustained success.

But that visceral feelings don’t extend to the Astros. Not yet at least. Until the teams have created some true dislike or have played another long playoff series, they’re not rivals, just strong competitors. Yankees-Red Sox will have to do for now.

Repeating past mistakes have come back to haunt the Yankees

April 5, 2019 by Derek Albin

It took six games for Troy Tulowitzki to wind up on the injured list. Banking on him to be the stopgap shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery was a high risk decision from the get go, and it’s already come back to bite the Yankees. I feel bad for Tulowitzki; his return could have been a feel-good story this season (and maybe still could). For a team in contention, it was never a good idea to count a player absent from the majors since 2017. It doesn’t matter how he looked in his offseason workouts.

Gambling on Tulowitzki was a move straight out of the 2013 and 2014 playbook. Those were highly forgettable Yankees teams that somehow finished above .500 while missing the playoffs. The likes of Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Brian Roberts, Kevin Youkilis, and Ichiro Suzuki were counted on as regulars. All of those players were either past their primes, injury prone, or both. Tulowitzki fits that mold.

Some of the aforementioned players actually got off to good starts in pinstripes. I recall Hafner and Wells raking early on. Pronk had a 198 wRC+ in the first month of 2013. Wells posted a 150 wRC+ during the same period. Things went (steeply) downhill from there. Others like Youkilis and Roberts never contributed much at all, and didn’t even last on the roster all season. Ichiro hit well when he was acquired in 2012, but was surprisingly signed a two-year deal thereafter.

Tulowitzki never really got a chance to show any semblance of his old self. Maybe he’ll be back much sooner than we anticipate, but it’s easy to be skeptical of his belief that it’s a relatively minor calf injury. At this point, as Mike noted, the Yankees have exhausted just about all of their depth, so they actually need him back. And that gets us back to the point: it’s a problem that the Yankees relied on Tulowitzki to be their starting shortstop.

DJ LeMahieu was ostensibly the contingency plan for Tulowitzki. It’s not that he’s a bad fallback, but rather, the issue is that it forces Gleyber Torres to spend less time learning a fairly new position, second base. Torres is capable of playing short, but if the Yankees have any intention of retaining Didi Gregorius, it would make sense to give Torres as many reps at the keystone as possible. That means having a more tenable shortstop during Gregorius’s absence would have been ideal.

This injury serves as yet another reminder that the Yankees passed on Manny Machado this past winter. I know, I know, you’re all tired of hearing about that. I’d rather not discuss it either. But what choice do we have? Sure, Machado could have become another one of the team’s walking wounded. However, that would have came as a surprise, unlike Tulowitzki.

It’s a rare opportunity to acquire a young superstar in the prime of their career for only money. The team could regret the decision for years to come. You think they regret letting Robinson Cano walk in favor of Brian Roberts? There were some dark years before the team finally found Starlin Castro and ultimately Gleyber. And sure, you can say that the Yankees had better internal options now as compared to Cano’s walk year, with Andujar and Gregorius on the left side of the infield. But who knows how Gregorius, and now Andujar, return from their injuries. It’s better to acquire as much high floor talent as possible and sort things out later if everyone is healthy at the same time. Instead, the Yankees went for the cheap low floor option with a low probability of significant contribution.

Thoughts after the Yankees lose Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar to injuries

April 2, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees were hit with a double whammy yesterday. They lost Giancarlo Stanton to a biceps strain and Miguel Andujar to a “small” labrum tear. Stanton got hurt taking a swing and Andujar got hurt diving back into third base. Once CC Sabathia’s suspension ends tonight and he’s placed on the injured list tomorrow, the Yankees will have ten players on the shelf. The season is four games old! Good gravy. Anyway, let’s get to some thoughts.

1. The Andujar injury is brutal. Stanton’s a great player and an important Yankee, but he pulled a muscle and is expected back in a few weeks. It sucks but it’s not the end of the world. Andujar has structural damage in his shoulder and is potentially facing season-ending surgery. Career-altering surgery, maybe, because it is his throwing arm. He was all set to build on what was a historic rookie season in some respects, and now he’s instead looking at a lost season and an uncertain future. The Yankees passed on Manny Machado and showed faith in Andujar as their long-term third baseman over the winter. He’s missing out on a chance to reward the team’s faith in him and further seize the job. I feel terrible for the kid. Andujar’s best case scenario is spending a few weeks rehabbing and what, coming back in May or June? Maybe even later? He worked hard all winter and all Spring Training on his defense and just like that his season might be over. Baseball ain’t fair sometimes.

2. Andujar, Stanton, Aaron Hicks, and Didi Gregorius are four-ninths of the Yankees’ best possible lineup and they’re all on the injured list. They combined for 119 home runs and +15.1 WAR last season. That is a ton of production. A ton. There is of course no guarantee they would’ve repeated those numbers this season, but all four guys are in their primes, and it’s not unreasonable to think they would have put up similar (or better!) numbers with good health. Instead, they’re all out of the lineup and it is impossible to replace them. Their replacements aren’t putting up those numbers. No team could lose four-ninths of their best possible lineup and not feel it. The worst part? I’m not sure any of those guys is coming back anytime soon. We know Gregorius won’t return until June or July or August. Hicks hasn’t started baseball activities yet. Aaron Boone said Stanton will “hopefully” return before the end of the month. Andujar? Who knows. I hope the rehab approach works but I can’t get the Mason Williams/Dustin Ackley base-related shoulder surgeries out of my head. Fingers crossed. I’m not really sure where I’m going with this other than to say geez, the lineup has really thinned out. The Yankees will be without their two best left-handed bats (well, one lefty and one switch-hitter), no worse than their second best power hitter, and their best contact/power threat. It stinks. It really, really stinks.

3. With the lineup thinned out, the Yankees are going to need several incumbents to pick up the slack offensively with Andujar and Stanton injured. They have to get something out of Greg Bird. Have to. Enough with the “he has upside and he hit some homers in the postseason two years ago!” theoretical production. Bird keeps falling upwards into playing time — he hit .199/.286/.386 (81 wRC+) last season and four games into this season he’s hitting cleanup! — and the Yankees need him to be the on-base/power threat they envisioned when he first arrived. They also need something more than nothing from Troy Tulowitzki, and they need Gary Sanchez to be 2017 Gary Sanchez rather than 2018 Gary Sanchez. Also, Brett Gardner too, especially since he’s apparently entrenched as the leadoff hitter. I don’t like it, but there’s nothing I can do about it. Gardner’s looked more like himself the last two games, and Sanchez is socking dingers, so hopefully that continues. It is literally impossible to replace Stanton’s power and there’s no other player in the organization who combines contact ability with extra-base ability like Andujar. Forget about replacing their individual production. Just get as much as you can from everyone else and worry about fielding the deepest possible lineup. Get more from catcher, get more from first base, get more from Gardner and Tulowitzki. Easier said than done, of course, but it’s the only thing the Yankees can do. No one player is coming to save the day.

4. As much as the injury stinks, one thing losing Andujar does is improve the infield defense and quite a bit at that. I love the kid, and I do think was kinda sorta maybe possibly getting better at third base, but yeah, DJ LeMahieu is a much better gloveman. I’m sure LeMahieu’s inexperience will pop-up at some point — that usually happens on a cutoff play or something non-routine — but, overall, he’s looked rock solid at worst and legitimately above-average at best at the hot corner in limited looks. Going from Andujar to LeMahieu means the Yankees will lose something offensively but gain a lot defensively. Heck, the defensive gain might more than make up for the offensive loss. Then again, it’s not Andujar or LeMahieu. The Yankees should have Andujar and LeMahieu. Still, the infield defense will be improved now that LeMahieu is at third full-time. That’ll help CC Sabathia in particular given how many weak rollers to the left side of the infield he gets. That’s the silver lining in otherwise terrible situation.

5. The Yankees really lucked out with the schedule this month. We know any team can beat any other team on any given day in this game — we certainly saw that this past weekend — but I will happily take a month filled with games against rebuilding teams than a month filled with games against contending teams. Especially while dealing with so many injuries. No Andujar, no Gregorius, no Hicks, no Stanton? Give me the Tigers and Orioles and White Sox and Royals as much as possible until they start coming back. The season is four games old and already it feels like the Yankees are just trying to keep their head above water. That’s not good. The Yankees have come out and play well — they clearly didn’t do that against the Orioles the last few days — but at least the schedule gives the a little reprieve. Staying afloat is easier against bad teams than good teams.

6. The potential for the Yankees to use the injuries as an excuse for, well, anything, is annoyingly high right now. Don’t win the division? Don’t make the postseason? I can already hear Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner talking about all the injuries and adversity and all that. I hate it. Injuries happen and yes, the Yankees are dealing with an inordinate number of injuries now, but I’ve never liked leaning on them as an excuse, especially when you’re in the game’s biggest market and have the most resources. Every team has injuries. The teams that best overcome them are the teams left standing at the end of the season. We’re four games into the season and already the injury excuse is built-in. I really hope we don’t hear it later in the season and we’re instead talking about how Clint Frazier and Greg Bird and others stepped up. Would be cool.

Thoughts following Opening Day 2019

March 29, 2019 by Mike

The 2019 season has begun and the Yankees are undefeated. Granted, there are still 161 regular season games to go, but I’ll take being in first place after Opening Day any year. The other four AL East teams lost yesterday. The Yankees stand alone atop the division. Let’s hope they stay there all season and go wire-to-wire. Here are some thoughts (and overreactions) following the Opening Day win.

1. Yesterday was a textbook 2019 Yankees win. The offense powered the Yankees to an early lead, they got good enough starting pitching, and they smothered the other team with the bullpen in the late innings. Masahiro Tanaka was better than “good enough,” but I think you get my point. The Yankees put together tough at-bats all game — they averaged 4.21 pitches per plate appearance as a team yesterday, a number only 15 qualified hitters reached last year — and in only one inning did they fail to put a runner on base (the 7-8-9 hitters went down in order in the fourth). I get it, the Orioles are simply awful, and eventually the Yankees will play teams that can hang in and actually compete with them. The Yankees did what you want them to do against a bad team though, and the formula still applies. Lots of offense, good enough starting pitching, then bullpen them into oblivion. There are so many bad and rebuilding teams in the American League that I have to think we’re going to see a lot more games like yesterday’s throughout the season.

2. The Yankees are where they are as an organization largely because they’ve gotten much better at developing prospects. You can’t win these days without growing your own Aaron Judge or Luis Severino or Miguel Andujar. The Yankees are where they are because they’ve also been so good at identifying undervalued players in other organizations. The Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks trades were heists. Getting six years of Chad Green for three years of Justin Wilson was a great move. And now there’s Luke Voit as well. Imagine if this dude is truly for real and the Yankees turned two MLB roster bubble middle relievers (Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos) into a bona fide middle of the order masher? Good gravy. Trading Voit for nothing in particular, then giving up multiple prospects to get Paul Goldschmidt (and give him a big extension) feels like something the Yankees would have done in the early 2000s. Now they’re on the other end of that transaction. They’re getting the undervalued guy. Voit swung the bat twice yesterday and did not make an out — he’s currently hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000 (661 wRC+) — and he’s already one of the most popular players on the team. No one is beating Aaron Judge when it comes to crowd reaction. Those “LUUUKE” chants each time Voit came to the plate were awfully loud though. Didi and Hicks are two-way guys who play important up-the-middle positions. Those were masterful pickups. Getting a dude who straight mashes, even if he’s a full-time DH, is a heck of a pickup as well. Voit being for real would be amazing.

3. Maybe it’s just me being a giant Miguel Andujar homer (are we going with FANdujars or what?), but I was encouraged by his defense yesterday. Even with the throwing error. The throwing error came on a non-routine play and it is the type of play Andujar probably isn’t even in position to make last season. He ranged to his right (in foul territory) and made a strong overhand throw. I feel like we could count on one hand the number of times we saw that last season. More importantly, Andujar made a quick transfer on a potential 5-4-3 double play ball later in the game. Might as well GIF it up:

Last year Andujar’s transfer was sooo slow. My goodness. He waited for the ball come to him and often double-clutch before making the throw. On that play Andujar went and got the ball, and made a quick and accurate throw to second base. The runner, Drew Jackson, is crazy fast and was able to beat out the double play, but there was at least a chance at the out at first base. Last year, probably not. Too many times we saw Andujar take his time getting that ball to second base, and hey, maybe we’ll see him take his time getting the ball to second base going forward. That play might’ve been an anomaly. I guess we’ll find out. Andujar seemed to show a little more range and a little more urgency with his defense in Spring Training, and we saw something similar yesterday. This is a #thingtowatch.

4. It sure sounds like Adam Ottavino will be the fireman going forward. The guy who enters in the middle of an inning to snuff out a rally. He kinda sorta did that yesterday — Ottavino entered with a runner on second and two outs with a four-run lead, so it was hardly a dire situation, but it was the only point in yesterday’s game where it felt like the O’s had something going — and Aaron Boone indicated that will be Ottavino’s role. “Adam came in at a time in the game that was a big spot. We liked the lane he was coming into, and to go out there and kind of dominate, the way he’s done,” Boone said. Given the current bullpen personnel, Ottavino as the fireman is the best way to go. Pretty clearly, I think. He struck out 36.3% of the batters he faced last year, and given his current stuff, I am pretty confident that’s his true talent level. His true strikeout level might even be higher now that he’s in Year Two of his self-rebuild and with a smart, analytically inclined organization. Point is, Ottavino is the best bet to come in and miss bats, and that’s what you want when you’re in a sticky situation. Someone who can end an inning without a ball being put in play. Chad Green is really good, but his strikeout rate went from 40.7% in 2017 to 31.5% in 2018, and he’s predictable with all those fastballs. Jonathan Holder’s really good as well, but he’s not going to overpower anyone. Zack Britton seems locked into the eighth inning while Dellin Betances is out and, honestly, Britton has been too wild so far this year (even in Spring Training) for my liking. Once he starts throwing more strikes, we can add him to the fireman conversation. Right now, it should be Ottavino, and he was used accordingly yesterday.

5. I’m really looking forward to James Paxton’s debut tomorrow. As sports fans (this isn’t limited to Yankees fans), we have a tendency to compare current players to our favorite players of yesteryear. Melky Cabrera was going to be the next Bernie Williams, Greg Bird was going to be the next Don Mattingly, Jordan Montgomery was going to be the next Andy Pettitte, so on and so forth. I try to avoid those comparisons. Just let players be themselves and not worry about them being the next whoever, you know? That said, Paxton does remind me of Andy Pettitte more than anyone who’s gotten the “next Andy Pettitte” label over the years. Peak Andy Pettitte, I mean, not late-career Andy Pettitte. They’re both tall left-handers with a similar arm action who have above-average fastballs — the average fastball standard is higher now than it was in Pettitte’s heyday, obviously — and a good array of secondary pitches. Paxton throws his fastball more than Pettitte ever did, though my guess is we’ll see his fastball usage scaled back a little bit this year. I don’t think he’ll go full anti-fastball like Tanaka, but I think we’ll see him use his curveball and cutter a little more. It seems like there’s potential for improvement through pitch selection tweaks. We’ll see. The Orioles stink, so tomorrow’s results might be skewed, but I’m still looking forward to seeing Paxton in a meaningful game.

Thoughts on Opening Day 2019

March 28, 2019 by Mike

At long last, the offseason and Spring Training are over. The 2019 regular season begins today with the Yankees hosting the Orioles at Yankee Stadium. I know it’s only one of 162, but Opening Day is always a blast, even when it’s 50-something degrees outside. Anyway, let’s get to some thoughts before the new season opens.

1. It completely stinks that it is happening because of injuries (Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius), but it looks to me Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will hit back-to-back this year. At least for the time being. I suppose Greg Bird could hit between them to split up the strikeout prone righties, though I don’t think that’ll happen yet. Bird has to show he can hit Major League pitching first, and I don’t mean in Spring Training either. My guess at today’s starting lineup:

CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
DH Luke Voit
C Gary Sanchez
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
SS Troy Tulowitzki
2B Gleyber Torres

(Update: So close! Jack Curry says that is today’s lineup, only with Sanchez and Andujar flipped, and Tulowitzki and Torres flipped.)

That’s my guess at today’s lineup, not how I would order them. Assuming it happens, I’m pretty thrilled Judge and Stanton will hit back-to-back, even against righties. It is long overdue. Judge second and Stanton third ensures they both hit in the first inning and have a chance to do so with a man on base. Also, batting Stanton third instead rather than fourth increases his chances of getting that one last at-bat in the ninth inning of a close game. The Yankees are playing the Orioles, the Tigers, and then the Orioles again these next ten days. Against those pitching staffs, bat the big guys back-to-back and let ’em eat. Don’t worry about late-inning matchup situations against teams like that. If things go according to plan, those late-inning matchup situations will be irrelevant. We’ll see what today’s lineup is when it comes out. I’m really hoping Judge and Stanton back-to-back is a regular thing.

2. Speaking of Bird, the Hicks injury gives him yet another chance to show he can contribute to the Yankees. Forget about carving out a long-term role for the moment. Let’s see him do something more than nothing first. I have no idea what to expect. I really don’t. Bird had another great Spring Training (.333/.500/.643) but we’ve seen that before and there’s no chance I’m falling for it again. (For what it’s worth, Baseball Reference’s opponent quality metric says Bird faced mostly Double-A caliber hitters this spring.) The Yankees could really use another left-handed bat, especially while Hicks is sidelined, and Bird will get to feast on some crummy pitching staffs in April. The Yankees play 16 of their first 21 games against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. Everything is set up for Bird to have success. He’s going to play pretty much everyday, the Yankees have a ton of lefty hitter friendly Yankee Stadium home games the first three weeks (15 of their first 21 games are at home), and they play like two good teams in April. Things couldn’t possibly be set up better for Bird and the Yankees. Hopefully he mashes and forces the Yankees to make a tough roster decision once Hicks returns, whenever that happens. Bird has been a productive big leaguer for maybe six weeks over the last three seasons, and, in a perfect world, he would be on his way to Scranton right now. That isn’t the case though. The Yankees need him now more than they did six weeks ago, but that doesn’t make him any less of an unknown.

3. As for Hicks, he isn’t coming back anytime soon, right? As of Monday’s update Hicks was only going through core strengthened exercises and had not yet resumed baseball activities, one week after receiving his second cortisone shot. “I think it has been a little disappointing that it is something that was supposed to be a day-to-day situation and it lingered on and had to get him the shots and all that,” said Aaron Boone to George King earlier this week. Hicks has been down close to a full month now. He played his final Grapefruit League game on March 1st. So, whenever he is cleared for baseball activities, he’ll basically have to go through an entire Spring Training. Playing catch and hitting off a tee, then hitting in the cage, then batting practice, then rehab games, so on and so forth. That stuff takes time. Extended Spring Training will help speed up the process — Hicks can go lead off every inning in ExST games to get a bunch of at-bats in a short period of time — but only so much. Coming back on April 4th, the first day he’s eligible to be activated off the injured list, clearly will not happen. Maybe he can make it back for April 12th, the first day of the second homestand? If not then, what about April 22nd, the first day of the nine-game, ten-day West Coast trip? Not being back in time for that West Coast trip would be rough. Back issues are tricky because they can linger and they’re easy to reaggravate. Carlos Correa received a cortisone shot for his lower back soreness last year and didn’t hit a lick after coming off the disabled list (.180/.261/.256 in 145 plate appearances). That’s the worst case scenario here. Hicks misses a bunch of time and then doesn’t hit after returning. Yuck.

4. Given how little Hicks has progressed these last few weeks, the Yankees had to get a true backup outfielder, and they did exactly that with Mike Tauchman. Clint Frazier needs regular at-bats in Triple-A (and shouldn’t play center field anyway), and, while I like Tyler Wade, there’s no way the Yankees could rely on him as the full-time backup outfielder for more than a week or so. Billy Burns? Matt Lipka? Nah. The Yankees can do better. Tauchman addresses a need and you can talk yourself into believing he has some untapped potential given his 2017 swing changes and the corresponding uptick in power. He has speed, he’s solid defensively, and last year’s Triple-A spray chart shows he’s not a dead pull left-handed hitter. Tauchman can hit the ball out to all fields.

The Yankees have been great at identifying undervalued talent in other organizations these last few years. That doesn’t mean Tauchman is the next Aaron Hicks or Luke Voit. It just means I no longer dismiss these seemingly minor moves out of hand. Let’s see what happens. Anyway, my guess is Tauchman will play a decent amount in the early going. I don’t think the Yankees want to run Brett Gardner out there in center field day after day after day, and I’m sure Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge will get their DH days as well. Tauchman could wind up starting three times a week. Both ZiPS and PECOTA have him as a slightly below league average hitter (96 wRC+ and 98 DRC+) and a +2 WAR player per 600 plate appearances, and hot damn. I’d take that in a heartbeat. The Yankees needed a true fourth outfielder and they might’ve found a pretty good one.

5. I feel like we haven’t talked about Gleyber Torres enough these last few weeks. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton get plenty of attention and understandably so. Gary Sanchez bouncing back from a miserable 2018 season is a hot topic. Miguel Andujar’s defense is a daily talking point. Even Troy Tulowitzki gets his fair share of headlines. Torres though? I feel like he’s flying under the radar. He hit the quietest .289/.373/.644 during Grapefruit League play you’ll ever see, and he’s a just turned 22-year-old middle infielder who already has an All-Star Game selection to his credit. And he plays for the Yankees! Three or four years ago, this kid would’ve been the talk of the league. Now he’s somehow flying under the radar. I don’t think you faithful RAB readers need me to remind you, but folks, Gleyber is a budding superstar. I think he’s no more than two years away from settling in as the Yankees’ best player, and not because I expect Judge or Stanton to decline. Those guys will be great. It’s just that Torres will be better. His raw talent and feel for the game are top of the line, and he’s only going to get better as he gains experience and matures. I’m excited to see Judge and Sanchez and everyone else on the roster. I think I’m looking forward to Gleyber’s sophomore season more than anything.

6. I am surprised the Yankees will use Luis Cessa as a long reliever while Luis Severino and CC Sabathia are on the injured list. He’s been their go-to spot sixth starter the last two years and Cessa had a great Spring Training, so I assumed he would be one of the fill-in starters. Seems like this might’ve been one of those rigged Spring Training competitions, where the Yankees decided ahead of time that Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga would be the fill-in starters. I don’t have a problem with that. It just caught me off guard, is all. Anyway, I still want to see Cessa as a short reliever at some point. I get needing him in long relief and to maybe spot start right now, but I feel like he’s best suited for a one inning air-it-out role. Maybe they’ll do it once everyone is healthy, and they can bump German to long relief and use Cessa in short relief. Cessa can not be sent to the minors without passing through waivers, so there’s a decent chance he won’t last the season with the Yankees. I just hope they try him out in short relief at some point and see what they have there before cutting ties. If a guy with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and a slider with a whiffs-per-swing rate north around 40% isn’t having success in extended outings, don’t you have to see what he does in one-inning bursts before moving on? We’ll see. Cessa not getting a starting spot despite two injured starters and the Grapefruit League season he just had tells me he’s closer to being out the door than getting a chance to carve out a long-term role.

7. Earlier this month pitching coach Larry Rothschild said it would be the big league rotation or Triple-A rotation for Jonathan Loaisiga, not the bullpen, and the big league rotation it is. Loaisiga did not have a good Spring Training statistically (13 runs in 16 innings), and there were times he ran some really long counts and couldn’t put hitters away, which is a problem we saw when he was first called up last year. The Yankees really like him though, so he’s going to start while CC Sabathia is sidelined. (To be clear, the plan is to start Masahiro Tanaka on normal rest in the fifth game of the regular season, then, when Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends, use his injured list stint to recall Loaisiga before his ten days in the minors are up. Exactly what I laid out last week.) With any luck they’ll only need Loaisiga to make two or three starts before Sabathia returns, and they could always pair him with an opener (does that go against using him as a starter only?) and have a quick hook given their deep bullpen, plus Cessa’s available for long relief should things go wrong. I am firmly in the “get whatever you can from Loaisiga before he gets hurt again” camp and this is a way to do it. It’s not what I expected to happen — I thought it would Cessa and German in the MLB rotation with Loaisiga in Triple-A to start the season — but it works for me. For all intents and purposes, German and Loaisiga are now locked in a mini-competition to remain in the rotation once Sabathia returns. Whoever performs the best will stay in the rotation to cover for Luis Severino.

8. I’m going to direct you over to CBS for my season predictions. Feel free to call me dumb and curse my name for picking the Red Sox to win the AL East again. I was planning to pick the Yankees before Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks, and Dellin Betances went down with injuries that could linger all season. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a pitcher(s) was never quite right after shoulder inflammation, or that a hitter couldn’t get himself on track following a back issue. It these were pulled hamstrings or something more minor, I’d feel much better about things. Right now, the AL East race is too close (on paper) and the Yankees have too many core players dealing with notable injuries for me to pick them to win the division. I will happily eat crow if I’m wrong. I mean, I picked the Mariners — the Mariners! — to go to the World Series two years ago. Maybe don’t worry about my predictions. If Hicks, Betances, and Severino return reasonably soon and show no lingering effects from their injuries, the Yankees will win the division. Right now, I’d be lying if I said I weren’t concerned. These are important players and worrisome injuries. The Yankees have enough offensive firepower and pitching depth to win a lot of games in a league where like seven teams are trying to contend, so I think another Wild Card spot is their floor. They need to be at full strength to have their best chance at winning the division though, and they’re not at full strength right now.

Best Case, Worst Case

March 24, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

We’ve made it, Yankee fans. Well, almost. The next time I write something, it will be about real games that really count. This long offseason is finally coming to a close, though as it seems to be the case with everything as I get older, it actually went pretty fast. Maybe it’s just me, but it felt like Spring Training sped by after the long crawl to it from October. Regardless of the passage of time our your perception thereof, we’re on the edge of a new season, ready to take the plunge.

The Yankees aren’t even close to escaping Spring Training unscathed. They’ll be missing ace Luis Severino for at least a month. Elsewhere in the rotation, fifth starter CC Sabathia will be suspended for five games, then placed on the injured list, pressing one of Domingo German or Luis Cessa into the rotation. Piling onto that, center fielder Aaron Hicks is going to be out with a bad back and his initial return date of April 4 is probably unrealistic. As is almost always the case, things could be worse, but this is hardly a ‘best case’ scenario.

The best case scenario for the Yankees–which we could argue is jeopardized by the injuries to start the season–is to mirror what the Red Sox did last year and improve on their already solid base of 100 wins in 2018. If the three key injured players all miss just a short time and do what they “should” do in 2019, there’s still a chance the Yankees could move from ‘team that wins a lot of games’ to ‘team that wins a LOT of games.’ Worst case scenario for these three? Severino needs shoulder surgery; CC’s age catches up to him; Hicks’s back prevents him from being productive or even seeing the field. Luckily, odds are that worst case won’t happen to all three of those guys. What about the rest of the team? Let’s take a look at each position group’s best and worst case scenario.

Infield

The best case scenario here is really about the long game: Didi Gregorius returning to the field healthy while Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar repeat or improve from their excellent rookie years. Greg Bird and/or Luke Voit are both excellent, which would be a wonderful problem to have. DJ LeMahieu transitions well to a utility role and Tulo plays respectably before being replaced by the returning Didi. Gary Sanchez reverts to 2017 levels and makes everyone forget about 2018. The flip side of this coin is pretty easy to see: Didi has a setback; Tulo is a disaster; Torres and Andujar take big steps back; both Bird and Voit crash and burn; Sanchez doesn’t recover; LeMahieu can’t adjust, etc.

Outfield

Hicks being hurt, forcing Brett Gardner into center field, is already tipping towards the worst case scenario, isn’t it? The Yankees, as presently constructed, are setting themselves up for a worst case in the outfield, considering the lack of depth they have with Hicks out and Tyler Wade as the extra outfielder for the time being. If one of Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge gets hurt–let alone Gardner, the only one we know is capable of playing Major League quality center field–things could get ugly in the outfield pretty quickly, even with Clint Frazier waiting in the wings. The best case scenario, though, is that Hicks recovers and, as planned, the Yankees have a dominant outfield. At absolute peak performance, this is a group capable of hitting 130 home runs all by itself and basically carrying the team, even if the worst happens in the infield.

Pitchers

One word tells us the worst that could happen to the pitchers, be they starters or relievers: injuries. Injuries mean lack of performance. Injuries mean depth gets depleted. Luckily, the Yankees have built a bullpen with such depth that it could withstand a major injury, if not two. In the rotation, that’s less the case, but that applies to most every team. In Sabathia and J.A. Happ, the Yankees are relying on some older players at the back end of the rotation, and that could be risky. The other three starters also carry injury risk–one is already hurt and the other two–James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka–are sure bets to miss some time during the season. Aroldis Chapman’s knee could act up. Dellin Betances is already hurt and is potentially in shoulder injury purgatory.

But the Yankee pitching staff has incredible, ridiculous upside. The top three starters are all ace caliber and you could do a lot worse than a borderline HOF fifth starter and a solid as anything fourth starter. The bullpen is almost an absurdity, given its talent and performance record. The best case scenario for the Yankee pitching staff is being the best in the league and it’s not like you have to squint for that to come into view.

Despite the high profile moves they didn’t make this offseason, the Yankees remain one of the most talented teams in all of baseball. Their best case scenario is easy to see and would be dominant if achieved. More importantly, perhaps, is that they’ve assembled so much talent that even if one of these groups of players does run into a worst case scenario, the others can easily pick up that slack. Happy baseball season, everyone; this is gonna be fun.