River Avenue Blues

Postseason bound! Saturday evening the Yankees officially clinched a spot in the 2018 postseason with a 3-2 walk-off win against the Orioles in eleven innings. The Blue Jays beat the Rays earlier in the day to help the Yankees out. At worst, the Yankees will be the second wildcard team. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is now seven.

Lynn Grinds Through Five Innings
Real Talk: Lance Lynn starts are just as painful as Sonny Gray stats, except Lynn is a tad better at getting outs. He labored through five innings against the Orioles — the 2018 Orioles — on Saturday and finished with two runs and nine baserunners allowed. Lynn also benefited from two runners being thrown out at the plate and another being caught stealing. So the O’s made a full inning’s worth of outs on the bases while Lynn was on the mound. Geez.

The Orioles scored their first run on a play that was equal parts bad, dumb, and weird. With runners on the corners and one out in the third, Cedric Mullins hit a weak tapper back out in front of the plate, and Lynn and Gary Sanchez did the “I got it you get it” thing. Sanchez picked it up, rushed the throw, and it sailed wide of first base. But! Gleyber Torres retrieved the ball in foul territory, threw home, and Steve Wilkerson was tagged out … by Lynn? By Lynn.

Huh. Sanchez committed a passed ball that put a runner on third with one out in the first place, then he threw wide of first for an error, and then he got caught watching the play and Lynn had to make the tag at the plate. Not your best inning, Gary. Anyway, a run scored on the play and the play at the plate was the second out. Lynn was able to get the third out and strand the tying run at second.

In the fifth, the Orioles scored in a more traditional way. Wilkerson doubled and Caleb Joseph singled to right, and Aaron Judge threw Wilkerson out at the plate. Poor guy was 0-for-2 going home on the afternoon. Two things about this play. One, Judge’s throw from right field was 96.9 mph, which is pretty nuts. I guess the wrist is feeling good. And two, replays showed Wilkerson never actually touched the plate. Sanchez blocked it with his foot. Cool.

Lynn’s final line: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K on 93 pitches. Five consecutive batters reached base against him in the fifth inning, yet Aaron Boone stuck with Lynn with the bases loaded and two outs, and he got the ground ball to third to escape the jam and keep the score tied 2-2. Lynn had eight swings and misses among his 93 pitches and three came in one at-bat, when Joseph swung and missed at the same inside two-seamer three times.

Was this Lynn’s last start of the year? He’s not going to be in the postseason rotation should the Yankees advance to the ALDS, so they may move him to the bullpen during the regular season’s final week in preparation for his postseason role. Normal rest would allow him to pitch Thursday, and then he could squeeze in one more tune-up outing Sunday. I guess we’ll see. Lynn was not all that good Saturday, but it could’ve been worse.

A Bit Of A Mess Against Hess
The Yankees put eight men on base in five innings and still had a weak showing offensively against rookie righty David Hess, who went into Saturday’s start with a 5.22 ERA (5.68 FIP) and 19 homers allowed in 91.1 innings this year. Hess did not have a single 1-2-3 inning yet somehow the Yankees only had two runners in scoring position in his five innings. Miguel Andujar had a one-out double in the fourth and Andrew McCutchen and Judge drew back-to-back one-out walks in the fifth.

As you might imagine given Hess’ numbers and their offensive tendencies, the Yankees scored their two runs against him with the long ball. Aaron Hicks short-porched a solo shot in the third inning and, two batters later, Luke Voit went opposite field and nearly over the home bullpen. It was one of those home runs that makes you think Voit is no fluke. Driving a fastball to the opposite field side of dead center with 109 mph exit velocity like this ain’t easy:

The first three batters of the third inning had base hits for the Yankees. Hicks homered, Andujar singled, Voit homered. Voit’s home run was a solo shot because Andujar was thrown out trying to stretch the single into a double. Replays made it look like Andujar thought the ball was clearly into the right-center field gap, but Adam Jones got to it quickly and made a good throw to second. By time Andujar picked up the pace, it was too late. Still love ya, Miggy.

Battle of the Bullpens
Both clubs went to the bullpen after getting five innings of two-run ball from their starting pitcher. First out of the bullpen for the Yankees: Chad Green. He was able to pitch around a leadoff double and a two-out walk in the sixth inning. Closer-turned-seventh inning guy Aroldis Chapman struck out two in a scoreless seventh. His fastball velocity was way down (96.1 mph average and 98.3 mph max), though, after a month-long layoff, I’m sure he’s still rebuilding some arm strength. Hopefully he gets back into the triple digits next week.

The Orioles, meanwhile, went to Miguel Castro. He tossed a scoreless sixth and seventh innings even though the Yankees had a runner on third with one out in the seventh. Gleyber Torres doubled to left and moved up on a passed ball, then was cut down at the plate on the contact play on McCutchen’s grounder to third. I hate the contact play so much. I mean, I get it, force them to make the perfect play. That’s why teams do it. I just hate it. Especially with Judge due up. And, even if they intentionally walk Judge, you’ve still got still Didi Gregorius at the plate with runners on the corners. Bah.

How important was this game? Important enough that Dellin Betances got the call for the third straight day. First time all season he’s pitched back-to-back-to-back days. Relatively low pitch counts Thursday (16) and Friday (11) helped make it possible. Dellin struck out the side on 19 pitches. He extended his AL record to 44 straight appearances with at least one strikeout and is five games behind Chapman (2014 Reds) for the all-time record. Probably not enough time to get there this season. Oh well.

Anyway, right around the time Tanner Scott struck out Hicks to end the eighth inning, Ken Giles got Tommy Pham to hit a tapper back to the mound in Toronto to close out the Blue Jays’ win over the Rays. That knocked the Yankees’ magic number for a postseason spot down to one. A win Saturday and they’re in! Aaron Hicks, do the damn thing:

Unseen in that video is Hicks fouling a pitch directly into his left ankle two pitches prior to the walk-off double. It looked pretty brutal. He was in obvious pain and stayed on the ground for a while before successfully lobbying to stay in the game. Then, two pitches later, he doubled into the corner (on the fourth slider of the at-bat) to send the Yankees to the postseason. Gregorius set that up with a leadoff single. Hot damn that was fun.

Leftovers
Man, what an escape job by Jonathan Holder in the tenth. He allowed a leadoff double and then a weird infield single where Voit got caught in no man’s land, and Holder couldn’t beat Jonathan Villar to the first base bag. A grounder right at Gregorius (infield in), an intentional walk to load the bases, a line drive at Voit, and a pop-up to Torres got Holder and the Yankees out of the inning. The O’s went 3-for-15 with runners in scoring position on the evening.

The Yankees did a whole bunch of nothing against Baltimore’s bullpen. One hit in five innings before Didi and Hicks teamed up for the game-winner. In fact, after Voit’s home run in the third inning, 26 of the next 31 batters the Yankees sent to the plate made outs. This was the opposite of Friday’s game. Friday night neither team could find a reliever who could get outs. On Saturday, everyone got outs.

Speaking of the bullpen: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K combined from six relievers. Green, Chapman, Betances, Zach Britton, Holder, and Tommy Kahnle each threw a scoreless inning. Sonny Gray was warming up when Hicks walked it off in the 11th, so he was the next man in the game. Great work from the bullpen, especially Holder, who escaped that massive jam.

And finally, Hicks’ home run was his 26th home run of the season, extending his career high. It was also the 250th home run of the season for the Yankees, extending their franchise single-season record. Voit then hit their 251st homer of the year. Here are the six most homer happy teams in baseball history:

1. 1997 Mariners: 264
2. 2005 Rangers: 260
3. 1996 Orioles: 257
4. 2010 Blue Jays: 257
5. 2016 Orioles: 253
6. 2018 Yankees: 251 (and counting)

Can the Yankees hit 14 home run in their final eight regular season games to break the record? It’ll be tough since four of those eight games will be played in Tropicana Field, which isn’t exactly known for giving up home runs. A good five-homer game Sunday would really help the cause.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Go to ESPN for the box score and updated standings, MLB for the video highlights, and FanGraphs for the postseason odds. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The final home game of the 2018 regular season. Time flies, man. Veteran lefty J.A. Happ and veteran righty Alex Cobb are the scheduled starters for Sunday afternoon’s series finale. That’s a 1pm ET game.

I wouldn’t wait around for this one to show up on Yankees Classics, folks. The Yankees opened the final home series of the regular season with an ugly 10-8 win over the Orioles on Friday, but a win is a win, and the magic number to clinch a postseason spot is down to two. Could happen as soon as Saturday.

5×25
The Yankees traded righty Yefry Ramirez to the Orioles for international bonus money last summer and that trade is still paying dividends. They used the bonus money to sign (among others) Antonio Cabello and Ramirez has now allowed 16 runs and 34 baserunners in 15.2 innings against the Yankees this season. That includes six runs and nine baserunners in 3.2 innings Friday night.

Didi Gregorius got the Yankees on the board with a two-run second deck homer in the first inning. Ramirez had nothing to put him away. Didi fell behind in the count 0-2, spit on three pitches out of the zone to work it back full, fouled away two more pitches, then jumped on a cement mixer for a 2-0 lead. That is home run No. 27 on the season for Gregorius. Every homer he hits these days is a new career high and new single-season high for a Yankees shortstop.

The Yankees broke the game open (or so it seemed) in the fourth inning and it started with a Neil Walker double that went in and out of Adam Jones’ glove in right field. Hit hard and over his head, but Jones reached up and initially made the catch before it popped out of his glove. Gleyber Torres found a hole up the middle for a run-scoring ground ball single, then stole second and moved to third on a wild pitch. Austin Romine brought him with a soft ground ball to third.

The Romine ground out gave the Yankees a 4-0 lead and, with two outs and the bases empty, I assumed the Yankees were done scoring in the inning. Instead, Brett Gardner worked a walk and Aaron Hicks visited the second deck for a two-run dinger. To the video:

Home run No. 25 on the season for Hicksie. The 2018 Yankees are the 14th team in history with five players with 25+ homers (Hicks, Didi, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar) and, if Gleyber can hit two dingers in the final nine games, they’ll join the 2003 Red Sox as the only teams in history with six players with 25+ home runs. Pretty cool. Also cool: Having a 6-0 lead in the fourth inning.

Si Si Sabathia
Six strong innings for CC Sabathia against an admittedly terrible Orioles team. Then again, the terrible Blue Jays tagged him for five runs in 2.1 innings five days ago, so progress? Sabathia retired nine of the first eleven batters he faced before running into trouble in the fourth inning, when three batters reached base and the Yankees needed a double play and a fly ball to right to escape the jam.

The Orioles finally got to Sabathia in the fifth inning and it was a typical Sabathia soft contact rally. Infield single to third, walk, ground ball single to right to load the bases with one out. The ground ball single had 65.3 mph exit velocity. The infield single didn’t even register an exit velocity. Statcast couldn’t pick it up. Jones brought two runs home with a jam shot flare single to left. The ball left his bat at 72.0 mph. Baseball can be dumb sometimes.

Sabathia rebounded from that two-run fifth inning with a 1-2-3 sixth. His final line: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K on 97 pitches. His average exit velocity allowed: 76.7 mph. That’ll work just fine. Sabathia was able to get his cutter in on righties — he had trouble doing that the last two times out — and that makes all the difference in the world. Instead of hard contact on pitches out over the plate, those inside cutters miss the barrel. Good stuff, CC.

Unnecessarily Interesting
Normally a 6-0 lead means you’ve broken the game open. But, because the Orioles scored two runs in the fifth and two more runs in the seventh, the Yankees had to break the game open again. And it’s a good thing they did too. Geez. Jonathan Loaisiga allowed a solo homer to the first batter he faced in the seventh, then Zach Britton allowed an inherited runner to score on a ground ball. Didn’t love the decision to go to the ground ball pitcher rather than the strikeout pitcher with a runner on third and one out. Whatever. The two-run seventh got the Orioles to within 6-4.

The Yankees immediately answered with three runs in the bottom of the seventh. Hicks dunked a single into shallow right, Judge worked a walk, and Andrew McCutchen poked a single back up the middle to score the first run. After Gregorius moved Judge and McCutchen up to second and third with a ground out, American hero Luke Voit hooked a hanger into left field to score two more runs and stretch the lead to 9-4. Cody Carroll, who went to the Orioles in the Britton trade, has now allowed seven runs and ten baserunners in four innings against the Yankees this year.

Once the Yankees took a 9-4 lead, Aaron Boone tried to get through the final two innings with a his C-Team relievers and it didn’t work. Stephen Tarpley struck out Chris Davis to start the eighth, so that was cool, but then A.J. Cole walked the generally unwalkable Tim Beckham (6.4 BB%) and served up a two-run home run to Renato Nunez to get the Orioles back to within 9-6. Cole has allowed 17 runs (six homers!) in his last 15 innings. Can we not see him again the rest of the season? Even after the Yankees clinch everything they can clinch? Please and thank you.

Cole’s terrible night — he allowed an infield single after the home run — meant David Robertson had to come in with the tying run on deck. The first batter Robertson faced: Two-run homer. Former Yankees draft pick D.J. Stewart (28th round in 2012) into the short porch for his second career big league homer. Suddenly the Yankees’ lead was cut to 9-8. It’s the Orioles. The 2018 Orioles. And the Yankees had to hang on for dear life. Good grief.

I don’t blame Boone for trying to stay away from his top relievers with a (seemingly) comfortable lead against the Orioles, especially after pretty much all the key relievers pitched Thursday night. Loaisiga and Cole have to perform and they did not (five runs in 0.2 innings combined). Britton and Robertson being able to strand an inherited runner would’ve been cool too. Be better, bullpen. Anyway, Jones played a Judge single into an insurance run-scoring double in the eighth, and Dellin Betances nailed it down in the ninth. Phew.

Leftovers
Every starter had at least one hit except Romine, who went 0-for-4 and also allowed two stolen bases. He did get a run in with a ground out though, so yay? Hicks went 2-for-4 with a single, homer, and two walks. He is 6-for-16 (.375) with four walks and two strikeouts in his last four games. Slump’s over. Judge went 2-for-4 with a single, a double, and a walk. He is 3-for-16 (.188) with two walks in four games back from the disabled list. His at-bats have been really good though. Only a matter of time.

Walker (double, walk), Torres (single, walk), and Gardner (single, walk) all reached base multiple times as well. The Yankees had ten hits and six walks on the night. Only seven strikeouts. Fourth time they’ve had double-digit hits in their last ten games. Prior to that, they had double-digit hits four times in their previous 19 games. As a team, the Yankees have a 14.4% walk rate and a 19.3% strikeout rate in their last ten games. That is: Good.

And finally, Dellin’s strikeout streak is up to 43 consecutive appearances. That dates all the way back to May 29th. This is the longest such streak in American League history and six appearances short of Aroldis Chapman’s record set back in 2014 with the Reds. Betances is probably going to have to wait until next year to catch Chapman. Alas.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Check out ESPN for the box score and updated standings, MLB for the video highlights, and FanGraphs for the postseason odds. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The penultimate home game of the 2018 regular season. The Yankees and Orioles will continue this series with the middle game Saturday afternoon. That’s a 4pm ET start. No one plays baseball at 1pm ET on Saturday anymore. Lance Lynn and rookie righty David Hess are the scheduled starting pitchers.