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Sonny Gray and the move from Oakland Coliseum to Yankee Stadium

August 3, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later tonight right-hander Sonny Gray will make his first start with the Yankees after coming over from the Athletics prior to Monday’s trade deadline. He’ll face the same Indians team he held scoreless over six innings just three weeks ago. I’m sure Gray will feel some “first start with his new team” butterflies and all that, but one start is just one start. As long there are (many) more good starts than bad starts, the Yankees will be happy.

Gray is making the move from Oakland Coliseum to Yankee Stadium, which is going from one extreme on the ballpark spectrum to the other. Oakland Coliseum is pitcher friendly thanks to the spacious outfield, the tall outfield walls, and all that foul territory. Yankee Stadium is pretty much the exact opposite. Short porch, not much foul territory, so on and so forth. Gray’s moving from a big time pitcher’s park to a big time hitter’s park.

So far Gray has made just one career start at Yankee Stadium, back in 2015 when the held the Yankees to three runs in seven innings. If you’re using that to forecast how Gray will perform going forward, stop. It’s meaningless. It’s one start. One start against a lineup …

… Gray will never face again. That one start tells us nothing useful. There’s not a pitcher alive who wouldn’t see their numbers get worse moving from Oakland Coliseum to Yankee Stadium. They are very different ballparks and very different run-scoring environments. You have to adjust your expectations accordingly knowing how hitter friendly Yankee Stadium can be.

Now, that all said, there are reasons to believe Gray is built to succeed in Yankee Stadium. First and foremost, Gray is a ground ball pitcher, and the next ground ball I see hit over the short porch will be the first. Among the 99 pitchers who have thrown at least 90 innings this year, Grays ranks seventh with a 56.7% ground ball rate. Since the start of the 2014 season, he’s fifth with a 54.6% ground ball rate. Ground balls are good.

Get that many ground balls over that long a period of time and it’s not a fluke. What makes Gray’s consistently above-average ground ball rate impressive is that he doesn’t do it with one pitch. Many great ground ball pitchers have that heavy sinker they use to pound the bottom of the zone. Gray gets ground balls with multiple pitches. Here are his 2017 numbers:

Four-Seam Fastball: 63.3% grounders (37.8% league average)
Two-Seam Fastball: 62.1% grounders (51.5% league average)
Slider: 51.4% grounders (44.8% league average)
Changeup: 45.5% grounders (49.5% league average)
Curveball: 32.1% grounders (47.7% league average)

The two fastballs and the slider have been comfortably above-average ground ball pitches. The changeup, his least used offering (6.5% in 2017), is a tick below-average. The curveball has been well-below-average at getting ground balls this season, though that’s an outlier. Gray’s curveball had a 46.5% ground ball rate last year. It was 52.3% the year before that and 53.5% the year before that.

Even if Gray’s curveball is permanently broken as a ground ball pitch — batters have put his curveball in play only 25 times this season, so I’m betting it’s sample size noise — he still takes three above-average ground ball pitches to the mound on any given day, plus a fourth that is average-ish. He’s not someone who, when he needs a ground ball, has to throw his two-seamer. Or has to throw his slider. He has more than one option.

Secondly, Gray is really good against left-handed batters. A righty who can’t keep lefties in check is going to have a really hard time in the Bronx. His numbers against lefties:

	BF	AVG/OBP/SLG	wOBA	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	Hard%
2014	489	.219/.300/.339	.289	20.7%	9.6%	58.0%	0.76	25.2%
2015	425	.208/.275/.303	.260	21.9%	8.0%	56.3%	0.68	26.7%
2016	256	.280/.329/.427	.325	19.1%	6.3%	51.6%	0.91	28.6%
2017	191	.220/.277/.335	.269	23.0%	7.3%	57.4%	0.58	26.3%

Gray was injured and bad all around last season, against both righties and lefties. When healthy from 2014-15 and in 2017, he’s been very good against left-handed batters, especially at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact. (The MLB average is a 32.1% hard contact rate.) Preventing lefties from getting the ball airborne is imperative in Yankee Stadium.

As you’d expect, Gray uses his slider more against righties and his changeup more against lefties, otherwise his fastball and curveball usage is the same against all hitters. That curveball is the difference-maker. It’s a high-quality pitch Gray can throw for strikes or bury in the dirt for swings and misses, and he throws it at any time. Many starters are fastball-breaking ball against same-side hitters and fastball-changeup against guys on the other side of the plate. Gray is fastball-cuveball-slider against righties and fastball-curveball-changeup against lefties.

Another reason Gray won’t suffer too much from the move from the Oakland Coliseum to Yankee Stadium? He doesn’t rely on pop-ups. There’s sooo much foul territory in Oakland. Balls that land behind the dugouts in many ballparks are caught for outs at the Coliseum. Those cheap outs have allowed dudes like Tommy Milone and Jesse Chavez to function as viable starters for the A’s, but nowhere else. Here is Gray’s pop-up spray chart overlaid on Yankee Stadium, via Baseball Savant:

That covers 2014-17, so that’s 641 innings worth of pop-ups there. You can count on one hand the number that were outs at Oakland Coliseum but would have been in the seats elsewhere. Will Gray lose some easy foul pop-up outs given the smaller foul territory at Yankee Stadium? Of course. But he wasn’t relying on them for success anyway. He’s a ground ball/strikeout guy. Not a pop-up guy.

One last thing to keep in mind — and this is not ballpark specific — is the Yankees are a substantially better defensive team than the Athletics. Remember how much the A’s kicked the ball around during the two series with the Yankees? The A’s might be the worst defensive team in baseball this season.

A’s DRS: -50 (30th among all MLB teams)
A’s UZR: -42.0 (30th)
A’s Defensive Efficiency: 0.706 (14th)

Yankees DRS: -5 (16th)
Yankees UZR: +4.9 (11th)
Yankees Defensive Efficiency: 0.711 (6th)

Gray’s ability to get ground balls with multiple pitches and use those pitches to neutralize left-handed batters are why it appears he is well-suited for Yankee Stadium despite being a short (5-foot-10) right-handed pitcher. He’s very unique in that regard. Not many pitchers that size can get ground balls. That the Yankees are a far superior defensive team to the A’s is icing on the cake. More of those grounders will be turned into outs.

As far as pitching well in New York and the AL East, I’m not concerned about Gray at all. He has a lot of weapons and he’s extremely competitive. The only concern I have with Gray is his health. As long as his arm stays in one piece, I think he’s going to be very effective for the Yankees, and I don’t think it’ll take long for him to become a fan favorite. Moving from Oakland Coliseum to Yankee Stadium will hurt his performance because it would hurt anyone’s performance. Gray has the tools to minimize the ballpark related damage, however.

DotF: Hicks begins rehab assignment in Scranton’s loss

August 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Two quick injury notes:

C Kyle Higashioka (back) is doing better, Triple-A Scranton Al Pedrique told Conor Foley. He’s taking swings and all that. The sooner he comes back, the better. Catching depth is important.
1B Tyler Austin (hamstring) did not play his first minor league rehab game with the RailRiders tonight for whatever reason. D.J. Eberle says Austin will play five innings at first base tomorrow. Maybe there was some miscommunication or something.

Triple-A Scranton (3-1 loss to Buffalo)

RF Jake Cave: 1-3, 1 BB, 1 K — hitting streak is up to 17 games
CF Aaron Hicks: 1-3 — played five innings as scheduled … here’s video of the single … he’s going to play the full game at DH tomorrow
CF Mason Williams: 0-1, 1 K
3B Miguel Andujar: 1-4 — his hitting streak is up to 16 games
1B Garrett Cooper: 0-4, 1 K
LF Billy McKinney: 1-4, 2 K
DH Ji-Man Choi: 1-4, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 K
RHP Bryan Mitchell: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 2 WP, 9/2 GB/FB — 64 of 105 pitches were strikes (61%) … 2.73 ERA with 36/6 K/BB in his last five starts and 33 innings down here … I wish the Yankees had given those two starts to Mitchell rather than LHP Caleb Smith, but what can you do?

[Read more…]

Lots of rain, lack of offense send Yankees to 2-0 loss to Tigers

August 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

As everyone expected, the Yankees knocked around the very good at baseball Michael Fulmer and got shut down by the no longer good at baseball Anibal Sanchez and Jordan Zimmermann this series. The offense no-showed — this was Zimmermann’s first scoreless start since April 20th of last season — and the Yankees lost Wednesday’s soggy series finale 2-0. They still managed to go 6-3 on the nine-game homestand. I’ll take it.

The Amazing Disappearing Offense
Like I said, I really wish the Yankees had added another bat at the trade deadline. Yes, the guys in the middle of the lineup (Aaron Judge, specifically) need to be better, but Matt Holliday hasn’t squared up anything other than Anibal Sanchez cement mixer in weeks, and Todd Frazier doesn’t move the needle at all. There should be first base and designated hitter at-bats available. I figured it would take two weeks after the deadline for this to become obvious. It took two days.

Anyway, Zimmermann came into this start with a 5.69 ERA (5.49 FIP) on the season, so of course he tossed seven scoreless innings. It probably would have been eight scoreless had the skies not opened up and forced a three hour and eleven minute rain delay after the seventh inning. The Yankees had chances against Zimmermann. Really great chances. Let’s check in on their ability to get the runner in from third with less than two outs:

Second and third with two outs in the second? Frazier popped up. Runners on the corners with one out in the third? Judge struck out and Gary Sanchez grounded out. Runner at first with no outs in the fourth? The next three batters (Holliday, Chase Headley, Frazier) struck out looking. Second and third with no outs in the sixth? Gregorius popped up, Holliday popped up, Headley struck out. Runner at second with no outs in the eighth? Judge struck out, Sanchez grounded out, Gregorius struck out. You’d think someone would get a sac fly by accident at some point, but no.

Sadly, this is not isolated to this game. It’s been happening for a few days now. The Yankees failed to get a runner home from third with no outs in Tuesday night’s game. Same thing on Sunday. (Or was it Saturday? I forget.) Remember the first game of the Rays series? The Yankees were about to strand Brett Gardner at third following his leadoff triple in the ninth. It took the Adeiny Hechavarria-Tim Beckham miscommunication for them to score that inning. Brutal.

One of the final 13 batters the Yankees sent to the plate reached base, and that was a Jacoby Ellsbury infield single. They went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position overall. This’ll pass. It always does. The Yankees and every other team go though a brutal RISPFAIL stretch like this every season, but that doesn’t make this any less annoying. I really hope they go get a bat though. Can’t bank on a Judge rebound and the guys on the disabled list getting healthy to fix everything. Wait for Holliday to turn it around and you might be waiting the rest of the season.

Six Solid From Tanaka
You’re not going to believe this, but that six-start sample of Masahiro Tanaka pitching poorly in day games (14.81 ERA in 20.2 innings) was not predictive. Crazy, I know. Tanaka pitched well again Wednesday afternoon, holding the Tigers to two runs (one earned) on six hits and one walk in six innings. He now has a 3.25 ERA (3.12 FIP) in his last ten starts and 63.2 innings. That’ll work.

Funny enough, Tanaka’s afternoon started with three straight hits. On the first five pitches too. Ian Kinsler jumped on the first pitch for a line drive single to right, Jim Adduci got a ground ball through the left side on the third pitch, and Justin Upton yanked a ball inside the third base bag on the fifth pitch. Upton’s double drove in Kinsler and set the Tigers up with runners on second and third with no outs.

Given the way the Yankees have been swinging the bats, that felt like the game right there. In the first inning. A hit might have been too much to overcome. Tanaka buckled down and managed to strand both runners. He struck out Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos, then got Victor Martinez to fly out to center. See? The Yankees aren’t the only team that can’t get a runner in from third with no outs. /sobs

The second run flat out should not have happened. Mikie Mahtook drew a two-out walk, then James McCann dunked a little single into center field. What should have happened: Mahtook goes first-to-third and McCann stops at first with two outs. Instead this happened:

baseball is hard pic.twitter.com/OVcQ4fPsow

— Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey) August 2, 2017

Sure, why not. Mahtook scored all the way from first on a soft little single to center field thanks to that bobble. Who knows, maybe Tanaka gives up a three-run bomb to the next batter had Ellsbury fielded the ball cleanly and prevented Mahtook from scoring. That’s possible. But man, such sloppy play. Especially from Ellsbury who at this point is a defense-first player. At least Tanaka continued his recent steadiness. More of that, please.

Leftovers
Immaculate Inning for Dellin Betances! He pitched following that long rain delay and struck out the side on nine pitches in the eighth. He’s the sixth Yankee to throw an Immaculate Inning. The last to do it? Brandon McCarthy. Never would’ve guessed. Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett, Ron Guidry, and Al Downing are the other Yankees to do it. Pretty neat. He added another strikeout in a scoreless ninth.

Two hits for Ellsbury and one each for Gardner, Judge, Sanchez, Gregorius, and Headley. The definition of seven scattered hits. The 6-7-8-9 hitters went a combined 1-for-15 with eight strikeouts. The Yankees need another bat. You might have heard me say that once or twice before.

And finally, Gardner went 1-for-4 to extend his hitting streak to 14 games. That’s the longest of his career and the longest active hitting streak in baseball.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score and updated standings, go to ESPN. MLB.com has the video highlights and we have a Bullpen Workload page. Here’s the loss probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The homestand is over and the Yankees are now heading out on an eight-day, seven-game road trip through Cleveland and Toronto. Sonny Gray is making his Yankees debut in Thursday night’s series opener against the Indians. That’ll be fun. He’ll be opposed by Corey Kluber. That won’t be fun.

Rehab progress means Greg Bird has a chance to be a factor in September

August 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

For all intents and purposes, this is a second straight lost season for Greg Bird. He missed the entire 2016 season following shoulder surgery — he was able to squeeze in an Arizona Fall League stint — and this year he’s been sidelined since early May with ongoing ankle issues. Since the end of the 2015 season, Bird has only 263 plate appearances to his credit, and that includes Spring Training.

At this point the hope is Bird can return from ankle surgery at some point this year and maybe give the Yankees a nice shot in the arm down the stretch. The Yankees won’t push him too hard after the way things have gone this season, though it’s starting to look more and more likely Bird will return this year. He’s already started hitting just two weeks out from surgery. From Dan Martin:

“I played catch for the first time (Monday) and hit for the first time (Tuesday),” said Bird. “It felt great. I already feel the difference in a lot of things that I’ve done since the surgery and that makes me believe I could be back soon — especially with the stitches out and the (incision) is good … The discomfort is gone. Now it’s about getting ready to play again, getting in the weight room and on the field. I have to get used to it — and get used to not having the ankle in the back of my mind.”

Brian Cashman of course downplayed Bird’s chances of returning by the end of this month — “It’s hard to predict with this kind of injury because it’s unusual. But he’s progressing,” said the general manager to Martin — because that’s what Brian Cashman does. This isn’t the first time Bird has started working his way back this year, remember. He was on a rehab assignment for a few weeks in June before being shut down again.

The Yankees went out and acquired Todd Frazier essentially for first base depth even though he’s playing third, and I’m glad they did because I didn’t want the Yankees to be in a position where they were counting on Bird coming back. Anything he gives them this year is gravy as far as I’m concerned. In fact, as I said the other day, I’d like to see the Yankees bring in another bat. I don’t expect it to happen, but I’d like to see it.

So perhaps Bird can be that bat, even if he doesn’t return until sometime after rosters expand on September 1st. He’s had a very long layoff and needs to get his timing down, so his minor league rehab stint could run the full 20 days, but the fact Bird is already hitting and doing baseball stuff suggests his season is not over. The top priority here is next season and getting Bird ready for 2018. But, if he can make it back in September, the Yankees will be that much better.

Game 106: End of the Homestand

August 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

This long nine-game homestand comes to end this afternoon, and today’s game will determine whether this is a great 7-2 homestand or merely a very good 6-3 homestand. Winning seven of nine sounds so much better, doesn’t it? A win today gives the Yankees their fourth straight series win after going 0-8-2 in their previous ten series.

Masahiro Tanaka is on the mound this afternoon and he’s coming off that brilliant start against the Rays, in which he took a perfect game into the sixth inning and finished with one run allowed on two hits and no walks in eight innings. He struck out a career high 14. Tanaka has a 3.43 ERA (3.52 FIP) in his last nine starts and looks better than he has pretty much all season. Hopefully it continues today. Here is the Tigers’ lineup and here is the Yankees’ lineup:

LF Brett Gardner
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Aaron Judge
C Gary Sanchez
SS Didi Gregorius
DH Matt Holliday
3B Chase Headley
1B Todd Frazier
2B Ronald Torreyes
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

It is warm, cloudy, and humid in New York today, and there is some rain in the forecast throughout the afternoon. Hopefully nothing heavy enough to delay the game. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET and you’ll be able to watch on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy the game.

Update (12:48pm ET): The Yankees say the game will not start on time due to rain. The Tigers are not scheduled to come back to New York again this season, so they’re going to wait as long as necessary to get this game in.

Update (1:55pm ET): Today’s game will begin at 2:30pm ET, the Yankees say. That’s not too bad.

With Aaron Hicks on the mend, the Yankees will soon have to make some roster and playing time decisions

August 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later tonight nominal fourth outfielder Aaron Hicks will start a minor league rehab assignment with Triple-A Scranton. He’s been sidelined since June 26th with a right oblique strain. Oblique injuries are really tricky. They’re very easy to reaggravate. And because Hicks is a switch-hitter, he and the Yankees had to be extra careful during his recovery and rehab.

Prior to the injury the 27-year-old Hicks was enjoying a breakout season, a breakout season that had him in the All-Star Game conversation. He hit .290/.398/.515 (145 wRC+) with ten homers and nearly as many walks (15.3%) as strikeouts (17.4%) before getting hurt. Among the 281 players with at least 200 plate appearances this season, Hicks ranks 14th in OBP and 19th in wRC+. He was awesome.

Since Hicks got hurt, a whole lot has changed. The Yankees lost for the seventh time in nine games to blow their division lead the day Hicks got hurt. Now the Yankees have won seven of their last nine games to climb back in the AL East race. They’re still only a half-game back following last night’s loss. Also, Jacoby Ellsbury returned from the disabled list and has since been relegated to fourth outfielder duty, both by his play and Clint Frazier’s play.

Simply put, when Hicks got hurt, the Yankees were trending down and it was not pretty. Now, with Hicks nearing a return, the Yankees are winning games and they’ve added several new players to the roster. Frazier came up from the system and all the trades brought in Todd Frazier, Jaime Garcia, Sonny Gray, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. Hicks is returning to a much better and more formidable team.

Because he’s missed more than a month and because he’s a switch-hitter with two swings to hone, my guess is Hicks will need more than one or two rehab games. The plan might be to have him rejoin the team next Friday at the start of the next homestand. That would give him eight days worth of minor league games. Hopefully that’s enough. We’ll see. Whenever Hicks is ready to come back, the Yankees will have to make some roster decisions.

Opening A Roster Spot

If Clint goes down, we riot. (Elsa/Getty)

At the moment the Yankees are carrying a three-man bench with a backup catcher (Austin Romine), a backup infielder (Tyler Wade), and a backup outfielder (Ellsbury). They’re also carrying six starters and seven relievers, and for at least one turn through the rotation, the Yankees will use all six starters. They say they’re going back to a five-man rotation after that. Does that mean Jordan Montgomery to Triple-A? Garcia to the bullpen? Both are possible.

The easiest way to open a roster spot for Hicks would be sending down that 13th pitcher (whoever it is) and getting back to a normal four-man bench. As much as you may want them to, the Yankees are absolutely not going to release Ellsbury this year. At the very least, the Yankees are going to wait until the offseason to see whether they can unload him in a salary dump trade first. Saving even $4M or $5M a year on his contract is better than nothing.

The other option, which Brian Cashman has floated, is sending down Frazier. Man, if that happens, I will be Mad Online. I can’t see it happening at this point. Frazier has been productive and the Yankees are in it to win it now. You don’t go out and trade all those prospects only to turn around and send down Frazier, who has had an impact in his short time as a big leaguer. That’s not putting the best roster on the field.

Remember, once upon a time the Nationals said they were calling up Bryce Harper only temporarily. Then he hit the snot out of the ball for a few weeks and they had to keep him around. Frazier is not Harper, but he is really good, and he is forcing the team’s hand here. He’s done enough to stick. The Yankees may have planned to send Frazier down when Hicks is ready, but plans have to be flexible. Plans change.

Now, that all said, one thing to keep in mind here is that September isn’t far away. Assuming Hicks returns for the start of the homestand next Friday — again, that’s just my assumption, not something the Yankees have confirmed — the Yankees could send Frazier down for three weeks, then bring him right back when rosters expand on September 1st. Reevaluate the roster situation at that time to figure out the best outfield alignment. It’s an option. I hate it, but it’s an option.

So, as things standing right now, the best way to get Hicks back onto the roster is to send down that 13th pitcher, likely either Montgomery or Chasen Shreve. No one else is going down. The other options are release Ellsbury (nope) or send down Frazier (please no). An injury could change things — Matt Holliday back on the disabled list with his mystery illness? — but right now, I’d say it’s drop the 13th pitcher or bust for Hicks.

Finding Playing Time

This interests me much more than opening a roster spot. Hicks was out of this world before the injury, and because of that, he belongs in the lineup once he gets healthy. So does Frazier. So does Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge. I know Judge has slumped since the All-Star break, but does anyone actually want him out of the lineup? No way. He could snap out of it at any moment. No one busts out of a slump sitting on the bench.

As it stands the Yankees have four outfielders who deserve to play everyday (Hicks, Frazier, Gardner, Judge) and a fifth outfielder on the 29th richest contract in baseball history. I’m glad the Yankees and Joe Girardi have reduced Ellsbury’s playing time. It needed to happen. Now they’re looking at the possibility of completely burying Ellsbury on the bench as the seldom used fifth outfielder. The right move? Sure. An awkward situation? Yup.

Four outfielders who deserve to play means the return of the outfield rotation, I assume. Gardner will sit against lefties and I guess Frazier and Judge will take turns sitting against tough righties. Hicks will get days off here and there as well. All four of those guys should play as much as possible, and it’s up to Girardi to make it work. Ellsbury will have to be limited to pinch-runner and spot start duty. There’s really no other way to use him.

The wildcard here is the DH spot. Holliday has been pretty terrible for weeks now. If he continues to be terrible, it’s entirely possible the Yankees will scale back on his playing time, freeing up DH at-bats for the four regular outfielders and Ellsbury. “We continue to talk about it … (He) has had some good at-bats, but he really hasn’t gotten back on track. I think he will but it hasn’t happened yet,” said Girardi to George King when asked about Holliday’s slump recently.

The best case scenario is having too many good players. The Yankees don’t want to sit Holliday to open DH at-bats for other players. They want Holliday to mash, Hicks to mash, and Judge and Frazier and Gardner to mash. And they want Ellsbury to mash too. The more good players, the better. Take the depth and the production and enjoy it while it lasts. Realistically, that won’t happen. It’s very rare that everyone is hitting at the same time. That’s baseball.

Once Hicks returns, the Yankees will have to go back to the four-man outfield rotation, and maybe make it a five-man outfield/DH rotation should Holliday not get back on track. There’s really no other way to do it. None of the three current outfielders deserve to be taken out of the lineup, yet Hicks played too well before his injury to go to the bench. The Yankees have to play him to see whether that was for real. Early season Hicks was the best non-Judge hitter on the team, remember.

* * *

For now, Hicks’ return is at least a few days away and maybe more than a week away. Tonight will only be his first rehab game after more than a month on the shelf. A lot could change between now and the time Hicks is ready to be activated. Someone could get hurt, Frazier could play his way down to Triple-A, someone could get traded … who knows? Hopefully the Yankees have to make some tough decisions when Hicks returns. That’ll mean everyone is playing well and no one deserves to lose playing time or a roster spot.

Tigers 4, Yankees 3: Sir Didi can’t do it all himself

August 1, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Meh. That was one of those unremarkable games every team will play about 40 of each season. It’ll soon disappear into the giant blob of baseball we all forget each season. Maybe Paul George will remember it. YES showed him sitting in the stands during the broadcast enough times. The Yankees dropped Tuesday night’s game 4-3 to the Tigers.

Sabathia’s Bad Inning
Pretty amazing CC Sabathia managed to get through six innings given the way things unfolded early. And the Yankees really needed those six innings too. The bullpen has been worked pretty hard of late. Sabathia allowed three runs in the second inning, all on one swing of the bat, and only one run in his other five innings. Those One Big Innings, man. I guess you kinda have to expect them in a small park.

Anyway, the second inning rally was kinda dumb. Miguel Cabrera lifted a jam shot bloop into center field, then Nick Castellanos pulled a well-located grounder just inside the third base bag for a double to put runners on second and third with no outs. Exit velocity on the Miggy bloop: 71.8 mph. Exit velocity on the Castellanos double: 78.1 mph. Not exactly scalded, you know?

The biggest problem that inning was not the Cabrera bloop or the Castellanos double. It was Sabathia not being able to put John Hicks away. John Hicks! He fouled off four two-strike pitches — four! — to extend the at-bat before Sabathia caught just enough of the plate with a backdoor slider …

… which Hicks lifted two rows back into the short porch for a three-run home run. I mean, it’s John Hicks. He’s a 27-year-old rookie who hit .269/.281/.428 (90 wRC+) in Triple-A prior to being called up before the game. Gotta put that guy away for the second out and give yourself a chance to escape the inning. Or at least hold him to a sac fly or a run-scoring ground out, something like that. Limit the damage.

Sabathia’s final line: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K on 97 pitches. He had words with home plate umpire Mike Estabrook a few times because he thought he was getting squeezed, particularly on backdoor sliders — Sabathia thought he had Hicks struck out on a backdoor slider earlier in that at-bat — and you know what? Later in the game the plate opened up a bit. A little too late though. Getting beat by John Hicks is: annoying.

Gregorius Is Glorious
Great night for Didi Gregorius and not such a great night for the rest of the offense. Anibal Sanchez and his 6.18 ERA (5.16 FIP) were out there throwing cement mixers all game — Sanchez’s average fastball: 89.7 mph — and the Yankees could only get to him for two runs in 6.2 innings. Those two runs came on Didi’s fourth inning homer into the short porch. Gary Sanchez doubled as the previous batter.

The Yankees scored their other run on a Gregorius single in the eighth. Sanchez singled and moved to second when Justin Upton misplayed the ball in left field. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus lifted (Anibal) Sanchez for the lefty Daniel Stumpf and Gregorius jumped all over his first pitch for a line drive to right. Sir Didi went 2-for-4 with the homer in the game and is now hitting .303/.330/.506 (119 wRC+) this season. His seven home runs since the All-Star break are the most in baseball. For reals.

As is the case in most one-run losses, the Yankees had some chances to score but failed to capitalize. Most notably, they had a runner at third with no outs in the third inning and did not score. Tyler Wade started the inning with a double and moved to third on a wild pitch. Ground out (Brett Gardner), pop-up (Clint Frazier), ground out (Aaron Judge). Gross. Second time in what, three days the Yankees had a man on third with no outs and didn’t score?

The Fighting Spirit kicked in in the ninth inning and the Yankees did get the winning run into scoring position. Jacoby Ellsbury pinch-hit for Wade with two outs, worked a good walk, then advanced all the way to third when Shane Greene threw away a pickoff throw. The Tigers intentionally walked Gardner — intentionally walked the winning run! — and he immediately stole second without a throw. Alas, Frazier flew out to end the game. Drat.

Leftovers
Gardner threw a runner out at the plate in the eighth inning to save David Robertson a run and keep the Yankees within one. Robertson struck out two and allowed three little singles in his inning. Adam Warren walked a batter in his two otherwise uneventful innings. The rest of the bullpen got to rest, so that’s good.

Matt Holliday did a thing! Two things, actually. He had a single to left in the second and a double off the wall in the sixth. That was the hardest he’s hit a ball since taking Craig Kimbrel deep. Gregorius, Sanchez, and Holliday each went 2-for-4. So the 4-5-6 hitters went 6-for-12 and the rest of the Yankees went 2-for-22. There’s yer ballgame.

And finally, this was Sabathia’s 500th career regular season start, so congrats to him on the milestone. Sabathia and Tom Glavine are the only pitchers in history to start their careers with 500 starts and zero relief appearances.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
ESPN has the box score and updated standings, and MLB.com has the video highlights. Don’t miss our Bullpen Workload page either. Here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The homestand ends Wednesday afternoon — that’s a 1pm ET getaway day start — and the Yankees will try to win the series in the rubber game. Masahiro Tanaka and Jordan Zimmermann are the scheduled starting pitchers. RAB Tickets can get you in the door if you want to catch the Yankees before they go out on an eight-day road trip.