Can the Yanks play .614 baseball?


According to today’s playoff odds report over at Baseball Prospectus, the AL Wild Card winner, on average wins 91 games. At 21-28 right now, the Yanks would have to go 70-44 to win 91 games and put them into contention for the Wild Card. That’s .614 baseball, and all of a sudden, it doesn’t seem so improbable to see the Yanks playing in October.

Categories : Asides


  1. Yankee Doom & Gloomer says:

    614? They can’t even play 314!

    Keep dream’in. It’s too late.

    The Yankees are looking smaller and smaller in Boston’s rear-view mirror as they pull away from the under .500 pack! The Yanks are finally where they belong: In last place!

    They wildcard is coming out of the Central. The Yankees are no where near as good as Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Minnesota!!!

  2. Stuart says:

    no. they are playing pathetic it is mindboggling how bad they are..

    there is always a chance but they at present look terrible.

    they need to cut some guys and make some moves… these are legit moves, britton deserves a chance over vizciano, why not shelly duncan get 20 Ab’s, why the hell not???

    Abreu has been beyond bad, awful at a minimum and giambi’s act is so old it is amazing.

    I would not fire Cashman as long as he continues to not move any young guys……

  3. Pat says:

    Oh for Holy Christ’s sake… moronic… you have to look at how the competition looks this year… not how the competition has looked in the past. Granted, there is the chance that the AL central big teams will beat each other up to the point where their records aren’t what they would be in another division but shooting for 91 wins and hoping that will be enough to catch the 2nd best team in the central? I don’t think so. I’d say, shoot for 96 wins and its a slightly better idea.

  4. Ben says:

    Here, pat, let me put something in bold for you:

    “…to win 91 games and put them into contention for the Wild Card….”

    Did I say they would win? No. Did I say that 91 wins can have them contending? Sure.

    My apologies for actually wishing that this season would count for something.

  5. Pat says:

    and i said “91 wins won’t be in contention this year” The central is a powerhouse and 91 wins will do little more than provide off-season talk about how the yankees might be next year. this season is already over.

  6. Ben says:

    The central is a powerhouse

    If the Yanks manage to avoid giving up 8 runs tonight, they will have surrendered fewer runs in their first 50 games than the Tigers have. While Detroit has so far outscored the Yanks, it’s not inconceivable to see the Yanks catch up and outpace the Tigers in runs scored. The Yanks can easily be a better team than Detroit. This AL Central powerhouse label is more of a myth than anything else.

  7. Jon says:

    And don’t forget that the teams in the AL Central will all be playing each other. The chances of 2 teams having 95 wins when 4 out of 5 are very good are pretty slim, I’d think. It would not have happened last year if Cleveland didn’t have what is perhaps the unluckiest season in recent memory.

    Look, I’ll make the same point (briefly) as I did in the other thread about Cashman. In a few days we’ll have 4 starters where you have a legitimately good chance to win each time they pitch. In a few weeks it will be 5.

    The offense may or may not improve, but odds are it will. You just don’t have this many players performing so far below their recent averages.

    And if they do, you just chalk it up to something that couldn’t be predicted, and hope for better results next year.

    There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that this team can play .630 or whatever baseball.

  8. Mike A. says:

    Man, looking so far ahead is a BAD idea.

    All the Yanks should be shooting for is a winning percentage of 1.000 in their next game. That’s it.

  9. Gibb says:

    I agree with Ben and Mike.

    watching the yankees has been a pretty painful experience over the last month or so. reading this last post does help me to hope that this “season will count for something.” I read a fair amount of blogs and am overwhelmed by the amount of negativity I read in reader posts even when the yankees have been doing well. How do you watch games? Obviously there is a lot to be negative about these days, but honestly any optimism helps me to sit down and turn on YES every night. maybe it’s foolish optimism but i do think the yankees have a shot at the wild card.

    that said, the yankees need to start winning now.

  10. Tyler Simons says:

    To continue with the optimism of the above post, y’all should look on the bright side. You’re tied for the second-best last-place record in the bigs. Aside from Tampa Bay, Colorado is the only last place team with a better record than y’all! (Go Sox!)

  11. [...] this? So do the Red Sox. Meanwhile, when I posted on May 29 that the Yanks would have to play .614 from then on to contend for the Wild Card, I was roasted in the comments. Well, guess what? I was right. Told you [...]

  12. [...] when I posted on May 29 that the Yanks would have to play .614 from then on to contend for the Wild Card, I was roasted in the comments. Well, guess what? I was right. Told you [...]

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