Vandy’s Alvarez out at least 6 weeks

Joba the Great
Mediocre relievers hated Joe Torre almost as much as Torre hated them

3B Pedro Alvarez, one of if not the best prospect for the 2008 draft, broke a bone in his hand during his first at-bat of the year. He’ll be out at least 6 weeks, which is basically half the college season. The injury unquestionably hurts Alvarez’s draft stock, but will it be enough to get him to the Yanks at #28 overall? I think so. If he comes back and plays like a mere mortal, there will be tons of questions about how bad the injury was, if he’s fully healthy, will it be a long-term thing, etc. Elite players have fallen for far less. The real question is whether or not Alvarez will decide to return to school for his senior year to try and build his stock back up. Even with the potential questions, he’d be a no-brainer at #28.

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Joba the Great
Mediocre relievers hated Joe Torre almost as much as Torre hated them
  • r.w.g.

    I don’t think he’s going to fall that far at all. Very wishful thinking.

  • marc

    the problem i see Mike A. is that the mets have 2 picks before we have one and no real depth at first base… and obviously they also have tons of money to spend…

    • TurnTwo

      great point… and Minaya has said they are going to be willing to shell out some cash and pay out of slot to rebuild this system, like the Tigers, Yankees, etc.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Yeah but the Mets haven’t exactly spent big in the draft in recent years. Minaya says that’ll change this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

      Remember, guys like Joba, LaPorta and Adenhart fell (significantly) for similar, if not lesser reasons.

      • steve (different one)

        wasn’t LaPorta picked like 7th overall?

        Joba was a pitcher who *supposedly* had weight issues and a triceps injury.

        Alvarez broke a bone in his hand.

        not saying it couldn’t happen. seems unlikely to me though.

        • steve

          la porta was picked by the red sox in a much later round (15th something like that i believe) and decided not to sign.

          • steve (different one)

            ahh, you are correct. i thought he meant in 2007. duh.

  • jon

    Not a chance. Broken hand is nothing.

  • dan

    It’s also not the kind of injury associated with injury-prone players. Injured muscles are for more serious then injured bones…. just look at how we’re assuming Nick Johnson will be a good player again after missing an entire season with a broken leg.

  • http://www.mybaseballbias.com JMM

    Agree. No way he falls all the way to 28.

    • http://riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      This time last year people were saying that Brackman. The year before that they were saying it about both IPK and Joba.

      • jon

        TJ surgery is a bit different from a broken hand. As others pointed out, Joba had other issues, and wasn’t a near-consensus #1 (or even top) pick to begin with. I’ll admit my memory is a bit cloudy on the expectations for IPK.

  • Mike R.

    I agree a broken hand isn’t enough to drop him significantly, but add to that the depth of colege position players and the fact that Alvarez is a Boras client and he could fall. It would be a dream come true. The guy is a hometown boy with all kinds of freaky talent.

  • Ricochet

    Breaking bones happen that doesn’t suggest being injury prone and being the case he shouldn’t drop in the draft of he performs when he returns.

    What you worry about is ligaments and continuous muscle problems.

  • Lanny

    On Feb 27 2007 if you said Brackman would fall to 28 you would have been laughed at and ridiculed.

    • jon

      When it becomes likely that Alvarez will require TJ surgery, I will happily admit that a fall to #28 is possible.

  • Lanny

    No one said Brackman would need TJ surgery at this time last year. He was the top prospect in the country.

    Alvarez also has leverage being that he can go back to school.

  • CB

    Joba was considered a top 7 talent before his junior year. He had triceps tendinitis which is in no way a serious injury and he dropped like a stone.

    Yes its different for position players but the first thing teams look for in a draft is a reason to not draft a prospect.

    Will Alvarez be there at #28? Probably not. But is there a chance. Sure. And if he’s there the yankees should fork over 7-8 million dollars and make sure that he does not return to school.

    Remember, when a top prospect like an Alvarez falls they fall like a stone because with each pick that goes by a larger and larger gap grows between what the prospect’s demands are and what that slot pays. To get an alvarez becomes progressively more and more costly the lower he drops.

    This assumes that Alvarez will not decrease his signing bonus demands – which I’m sure he won’t. That benefits the yankees greatly.

    If he has a bad season after an injury and is still demanding a #1 pick type deal we have no idea how far he’ll fall. 28- probably not. But there is now some chance it could happen where as two days ago the chance was zero.

  • JCP

    I too have to fall in the ‘no way’ camp, unless Alvarez totally bombs during the season. But then, I don’t really know a lot about Alvarez other than the hype machine that surrounds him – nor do I know anything about the impact of broken hands on the drafting of truly elite position players.

    I will say though that arm troubles for a pitcher signify the possibility that the ‘machine’ in question is simply unable to handle the repeatedly being subjected to ridiculous amounts of force, whereas a broken hand seems a lot less likely to point to a long term problem.

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

    Pedro and I graduated from the same high school; he was in my sister’s class in fact. I don’t think he really wants to play for the Yankees in the Bronx, and for him, that will be a big factor. Remember: He turned down $1 million from the Red Sox during his senior year in high school because he wanted to go to college. Teams will be aware of this while drafting.

  • Mike R.

    You can’t throw out a nugget like “I don’t think he really wants to play for the Yankees in the Bronx” and not elaborate. What makes you think that? I don’t doubt you, I am just very curious.