Archive for Draft

The Yankees don’t kick off their exhibition schedule until this afternoon, but meaningful baseball has been played across the country for weeks. The college baseball season started in mid-February, and high school ball in warm weather states has begun as well. The Yanks’ scouting department doesn’t get the luxury of Spring Training, they need to be in mid-season form right out of the gate.

As I’ve already explained, the Yankees didn’t gain or forfeit any picks this year because of draft pick compensation, and their first choice comes in at number 32 overall. That pick will be their first in an effort to rebuild the farm system that has thinned out as the result of trades, graduation, and attrition, so they better make it count.

I figured I would kick off this year’s draft coverage by highlighting two personal faves of mine, a pair of power college arms.

James Paxton, LHP, No School
The name probably rings a bell for more than one reason. Paxton was Toronto’s sandwich round pick last year, though they weren’t able sign him and he returned to Kentucky. Well, he was going to return to Kentucky, except the NCAA wouldn’t let him. I’m not interested in explaining the whole story, but essentially the NCAA found out Paxton had someone negotiate with the Jays on his behalf, which is a no-no. The two sides were in court for months as Paxton tried to get his eligibility restored, and he ultimately decided to drop out of school when it became apparent the NCAA was trying to make an example out of him.

So now the 21-year-old Paxton will have to show off his stuff in an independent league this spring instead of fronting the Wildcats’ rotation. He’s a pure power arm from the left side, using all of his 6-foot-4, 220 lb frame to generate fastballs typically in the 93-95 range, though he’s flirted with 98. Paxton’s second pitch is a hard curveball that’s a true strikeout pitch, and his changeup is no worse than average. His stuff plays up because of strong control and command (just 61 walks in 148.1 IP at UK).

Even though his delivery is simple and his arm action is clean, Paxton dealt with elbow tightness in high school (he was raised just outside of Vancouver, so he’s a hoser) plus some minor back and knee trouble in college. Thankfully those were all one-time incidents. After going 37th overall last year, Paxton might end up going as high as in the top ten this year. If he’s around when the Yanks’ first pick comes up, they’d be wise to grab him.

Photo Credit: Canadian Press

Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas
One of the best high school arms in the country back in 2007, the Phillies wouldn’t meet Workman’s demands of first round money when they took him in the third round. So he ended up going to school, making the Longhorns’ standout pitching staff that much better. Workman made a name for himself by no-hitting my Nittany Lions last March, and he’s posted a 131-48 K/BB ratio in 128.1 IP during his first two years on campus. He has a 13-4 K/BB ratio in 11 IP during his two starts this season.

Another big guy like Paxton, Workman stands 6-foot-5 and packs 220 lbs. onto his frame, and his repertoire is all power. His fastball legitimately sits in the mid-90’s, and he’s run it as high as 97. An over-the-top curveball is Workman’s second pitch, and he’s messed around with everything from a slider to a splitter to a changeup as his third pitch. Although his delivery was extremely violent coming out of high school, Workman’s worked hard and has done a good job of smoothing it out.

Right now he’s projected to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, but if Workman’s bonus demands are similar to what they were three years ago, then he might slip a little further. It’s a surefire first round arm, possibility even a top ten arm, but these things never go according to plan. In a system lacking high upside pitchers, Workman would be a breath of fresh air.

Photo Credit: Flickr user CapeHomepage.com

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Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has shown that he prefers polished pitchers, which would give Paxton the edge over Workman. Either way, the Yanks’ system is short on power starting pitchers at the moment, so nabbing one of these two guys would go a long way toward correcting that.

Categories : Draft
Comments (72)
Feb
27

2010 Draft Order finalized

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (18)

Now that the Rod Barajas deal is official, all of the Type-A/B free agents are accounted for and the selection order for the 2010 draft is set. The Yankees didn’t lose or gain any picks this year, so they’ll be picking 33rd overall, then 82nd, 112th, 145th, and every 30 picks thereafter. It’s just the second time the Yanks have had as many as four of the top 145 picks since 2006, and the second time since 2003 that they didn’t gain or lose any picks because of free agent compensation.

The Blue Jays have a chance to do some real damage this year, because free agent compensation (Barajas, Marco Scutaro) and failing to sign three top picks in 2009 give them ten of the first 126 picks. Those same ten picks earned $9.2M last season, more than Toronto spent on their last two drafts combined, so it’ll be interesting to see how new GM Alex Anthopoulos and the game’s largest scouting department approach this. They need them, because their farm system is still pretty weak despite the Scott Rolen and Roy Halladay trades. The Angels also have a bevy of extra picks, including three of the first 30, and five of the first 40.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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Feb
22

Yankees hire Boucher to scout Canada

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (9)

Via Bob Elliott, the Yankees have hired Denis Boucher to be their scout for Quebec and Eastern Canada, where they haven’t had one since 2005. Boucher has previously scouted for the Expos and Nationals, and B-Ref chronicles all of his coaching experience. The Yankees are apparently the only team without a Canadian player, majors or minors, so it’s good to see them get back up there.

As player development becomes more and more competitive, teams are looking at more unconventional sources of talent. The best draft eligible prospects from Canada this year are Evan Grills and Evan Rutckyj, both lefty pitchers from Ontario who are projected as 3rd-5th rounders. That doesn’t include University of Kentucky southpaw James Paxton, who has Canadian roots and should go in the top 20 picks. (h/t Steve)

Categories : Asides, Draft
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As part of their Early Draft Preview, Baseball America posted the first of what will be many projected first rounds today (subs. req’d). They have Las Vegas wunderkind Bryce Harper going first overall, and the Yanks taking Southern California high school outfielder Austin Wilson 32nd overall. They say that “he might have the best body in the draft,” but as a Stanford commit, he’s going to be a very tough sign. Keith Law sheds some more light on Wilson at ESPN’s MLB Draft Blog (sorry, another subs. req’d), saying that he’s a “below-average runner and showed only an average arm with below-average accuracy, so he’s primarily a bat who should profile in an outfield corner.”

Projections this early do nothing more than provide entertainment value. Trying to slot players with teams this far in advance is practically impossible, so don’t get to attached to Wilson. Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that BA has Rice shortstop Rick Hague going 16th overall. Why do you care? Because three years ago I used my fourth round pick (#154 overall) to take Hague in John Sickels’ mock draft. I’m not normally one to toot my own horn, but toot toot.

Categories : Asides, Draft
Comments (57)
Feb
01

Determining the value of draft picks

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (8)

Every team and every person has a different philosophy about how their team should approach the draft, and to be honest there is no right answer. I’ve always preferred high school players because the sooner you get them into a professional system with professional instruction and conditioning programs, the better. College programs have come a long way, but those coaches can still do lots of damage (especially to pitchers). Oh sure, you’ll have to wait longer for your prize when drafting high schoolers, but that’s life.

In a piece for THT, Alex Pedicini looked at the top 100 draft picks from 1992-1999, and determined the most valuable demographics in terms of WAR. College hitters in the first round are generally the safest group, averaging 1.336 WAR per year during their first six seasons in the bigs (which their original team controls), while college pitchers are the most dangerous at just 0.649 WAR/year. That’s right, taking a high school pitcher in the first round has historically been a safer pick that their college counterparts.

Pedicini also breaks it down by draft pick (the top 20 picks are by far the most valuable) and position (corner infielders and outfielders are the safest, righty pitchers by far the riskiest). Check it out, it’s a short but very interesting read.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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Via Bob Elliott, a committee is being formed to work on changes to the amateur draft, most notably making it world-wide and instituting a slotting system. “This time it has a chance,” said Elliott’s source, a scouting director.

The current CBA expires after 2011, and I have a hard time believing they’ll open it up to implement these changes before then. The 2010 draft is now less than six months away, and it just doesn’t seem reasonable that the two sides could get away with making any changes before then without giving the club’s plenty of notice. Then again, what do I know.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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Every year Jim Callis at Baseball America grades each team’s draft based solely on the quality of players they signed, and over the last four seasons (2005-2008), the Yanks’ drafts grade out as middle of the pack with a 2.63 GPA (tied with the Padres and Cardinals for 15th overall). Things would have been much worse if not for the epiphany draft of 2006, which rated as a pure A in Callis’ book. Both the 2007 and 2008 hauls were considered C’s, while 2005 came in as a C+. Obviously, the Yanks would have received a boost had they signed Gerrit Cole in 2008, probably pushing that draft up to at least a B.

The two best drafting clubs during that time have been the Giants and Red Sox, both of whom sport a 3.50 GPA. The Astros bring up the rear with a 1.25 GPA. I think they put you on academic probation for that.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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Got some minor league notes to pass along…

  • As I’m sure you’ve already heard, farm director Mark Newman confirmed that Jesus Montero and Austin Romine will start the year in Triple-A and Double-A, respectively. Montero’s bat is definitely ready for the jump, though his glove isn’t, so that will be a big challenge for him. Romine’s ready for Trenton, he probably was in August.
  • Kevin Goldstein ran down his top eleven Yankee prospects, with Montero topping the list as the team’s only five star prospect. Since departed Arodys Vizcaino was the team’s only four star prospect, and they’re followed by a slew of three star guys. Trust me, trading Arodys stings, but remember that he’s a 19-year old that has yet to play in a full season league. He’s just a lotto ticket.
  • Coincidentally, Marc Hulet at FanGraphs posted his list of the Yanks top ten Yankee prospects, and had Vizcaino fourth behind Montero, Romine, and Zach McAllister. He also had Mike Dunn rated 6th, which is about as high as you’ll see him on any list. I like Mike Dunn, but sheesh, not that much.
  • Meanwhile, Hulet is also running through his annual review of each team’s recent drafts, and hit the Yankees yesterday. If you’re looking for the quick recap of the last four drafts, then I highly recommend it, Marc does a great job. Five members of the Yanks’ 2006 draft class have already reached the big leagues, and three others are legitimately on the door step. Quite a haul.
  • The Yanks signed outfielder Javier Herrera to a minor league deal. Baseball America rated him the sixth best prospect in Oakland’s system as recently as 2007, though he had Tommy John surgery and never quite figured it out. He’s a career .282-.358-.468 hitter in the minors, though he has just 15 plate appearances above Double-A. Decent little gamble.
Categories : Draft, Minors
Comments (88)
Dec
02

Draft Order Tracker updated

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (34)

Just a heads up, our 2010 Draft Order Tracker has been updated to include all of the Type-A and B free agents that were offered arbitration yesterday. As you know, I’ll update that sucker as free agents change teams and draft picks move around as compensation.

Comments (34)

It seems like we hear this about the top draft prospects every year, but in yesterday’s chat at ESPN, Baseball America’s Jim Callis said that it’s not far-fetched to think Bryce Harper could fall out of the first round entirely next June. He notes that it’s “going to be almost impossible to live up to the hype, and if he falls short and is looking for big money–is Strasburg’s contract a starting point–he may scare off clubs, who know he can re-enter the 2011 and 2012 drafts and still have lots of leverage.”

The Yankees – currently picking 32nd overall – did operate on a budget last year, but scouting director Damon Oppenheimer hinted that things could have changed under special circumstances. That probably means the team would have jumped all over Stephen Strasburg if he’d fallen into their laps. I don’t think the Yankees would go out of their way to make sure they retained their first round pick (by not signing a Type-A free agent this offseason) for the off-chance that Harper drops, you’d almost always rather have the big leaguer (unless we’re talking about someone like John Grabow or Kevin Gregg).

Categories : Asides, Draft
Comments (95)