Archive for Draft
Former Yanks second rounder Sam Stafford to miss season
Posted by: | CommentsVia Aaron Fitt, Texas left-hander Sam Stafford will miss the 2012 season due to shoulder surgery. The Yankees selected Stafford with their second round pick last year, but they did not sign him after a physical revealed a small tear in his shoulder. They’ll receive the 89th overall pick in this year’s draft as compensation. The injury is really unfortunate for Stafford, who was poised to climb up the draft rankings this year as a hard-throwing lefty in a class generally considered short on college pitching.
Baseball America’s Early Draft Preview
Posted by: | CommentsWe’re still five months out from the actual event, but I guess that’s why they call it an early draft preview. Baseball America published a list of the top 100 draft prospects today, as well as a position-by-position breakdown of the draft class. It’s a pretty good year for catchers and middle infielders, but a little light on college arms. Both links are free for all, though subscribers can see scouting reports for each of the top 100 guys.
The Yankees currently own three of the top 91 and five of the top 154 picks, with their first selection coming 30th overall. They didn’t gain or lose any picks via free agent compensation, and won’t because all the Type-A’s have signed. No word on what the team’s draft spending limit (courtesy of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement) will be yet.
Mailbag: Nunez, Wilson, Trading Picks
Posted by: | CommentsJust a short mailbag this week because a) I’m still full of turkey, and b) I want to enjoy the rest of the Thanksgiving weekend. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send in your future questions.
Jason asks: So the word is out that Atlanta likes Eduardo Nunez. I certainly would not want Jair Jurrjens in a deal for the reasons mentioned on this site. My question is whether you think it is realistic to think a deal could be had for one of the other young pitchers in Atlanta, such as Brandon Beachy, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, or Julio Teheran?
I don’t think so. The Braves moved Derek Lowe and are trying to move Jurrjens so they can open spots for those young guys. I really like Beachy, but Nunez alone isn’t nearly enough to get him. The Yankees would have to expand a trade for him, or any of those other three guys you mentioned, rather significantly. Teheran and Delgado are their Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, so don’t expect them to move either guy for anything less than a proven, above-average big league regular.
Just for the record, I would jump all over a Nunez-for-Jurrjens trade. It’s a utility guy for a potential above-average starting pitcher, that’s a no-brainer. The problem is that it’s not realistic at all, the Yankees would have to give up a lot more. I have no interest in giving up multiple pieces for a guy that struggles to stay healthy.
Preston asks: If we were to trade Eduardo Nunez to the Braves, should the Yankees look into bringing in Jack Wilson as the utility infielder?
Even at 34 years old (35 next month), Wilson is still a wizard with the glove. He’s well-above-average at short and started to see time at second and third bases last year. The problem is he just can’t hit, at all. The last time he topped a .293 wOBA was 2007, and his OBP hasn’t been above .292 since 2008. He also doesn’t have any power (six homers since 2007, and five of those came in 2008) and hasn’t stolen more than five bases in a season since 2005. Wilson just doesn’t offer anything beyond his defense, and at his age that could start to slip. He’s basically a veteran version of Ramiro Pena. I’d rather see them go for someone you can bring a little more to the table.
Anonymous asks: I know everyone’s talking about the NEW CBA, and added wild card, HGH, but I was hoping to hear something where teams would be allowed to trade draft picks. No players or cash, just picks? Say, the Yanks wanted to trade the 30th pick, for an extra third or fourth round, just like all the other sports.
The six lottery picks given to the low-revenue clubs after the first and second rounds can be traded, but that’s it. Those picks will be in the 35-40 and 75-80 range (or thereabouts), and I’m curious to see how teams will value them in trades. The expected value of draft picks in baseball drop off big time after the first five or six selections, then they really bottom out after the 50th pick or so. Getting say, the 77th overall pick in a trade isn’t all that different than getting the 200th overall pick.
The new spending limits should, in theory, result in players being drafted in order of their talent rather than how affordable they are, and that will further depress the trade value of picks. I don’t think a team with a pick in the 35-40 range could expect to receive a top prospect in trade. A top prospect in Double-A is worth substantially more than a draft pick, even a top ten pick. Would the Yankees trade Banuelos for a number one overall pick next year? Not a chance, Manny’s already doing well in Double-A and that pick offers zero guarantees. Trading picks sounds like fun, but I don’t think we’d see many teams trading down for an extra fourth rounder. This isn’t the NFL, the value just isn’t there when you have 49 other picks to use.
Guest Post: Yankees’ Draft Spending
Posted by: | CommentsThe following is a guest post from long-time reader Jake Hopkins, who you’ve probably seen in the comments as Jake H. He took a look back at how much money the Yankees have spent in the draft in recent years, something that will now be limited thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
In one of his regular Friday chats, someone asked Mike if the Yankees should increase how much they spend on the draft and/or international free agents. This has been something that Yankees fans have been complaining about since last year’s draft, the Yankees not spending enough. Wanting to find out if this was true, I looked at the last five drafts, but with a twist.
What I wanted to do was take out the first round money in the draft. I did this because the Yankees never have a chance to draft a guy like Eric Hosmer or Stephen Strasburg. By taking these large bonuses out we can see the teams that spend throughout the entire draft and not just on their first round pick. The Giants are a good example; in the last five years they’ve spent $31.921 million on the draft and $16.356 million on first round bonuses (52.1%).
This point is more evident when looking at the total number of first round and supplemental first round picks since 2007. The Yankees have had a total of just five draft picks in those rounds during that time. That’s tied for the lowest amount of draft picks along with the Orioles and Marlins. The Blue Jays and the Rays are tied with the most at fifteen picks during that five-year span.
What I did was take the first round’s salary out of the equation and added back in a dollar. I then took that amount and divided it by the number of total picks that signed for the five-year period. The Yankees spent an average of $182,790 per pick, which was the fourth highest total. The Red Sox were number one followed by the Pirates and then the Jays. The Yankees also had the least amount spent on the first round picks until the 15th spot which was the Phillies, and they aren’t known for spending on the draft.
So we now know what the Yankees spent on average on each non-first round draft pick over that five-year period. Here is a year-by-year break down…
- 2007: $145,313 average draft pick spending, fifth most.
- 2008: $150,000 average draft pick spending, tenth most. (Remember no Gerrit Cole or Scott Bittle)
- 2009: $207,692 average draft pick spending, fourth most.
- 2010: $205,214 average draft pick spending, seventh most.
- 2011: $227,957 average draft pick spending, sixth most.
As the numbers show, the Yankees have increased their average spending on the draft over the last five years, with 2011 representing their highest average draft pick price. While the Yankees’ spending has increased, I’m sure people are saying that the MLB average has gone up. Yes it has, but not as much as you may have thought…
- 2007: $95,985 average for all teams.
- 2008: $131,825 average for all teams.
- 2009: $132,878 average for all teams.
- 2010: $143,813 average for all teams.
- 2011: $136,268 average for all teams.
So there was a large jump in draft spending from 2007 to 2008, then the average spending stayed close to those numbers with 2010 being the highest. Now keep in mind that this takes all teams into account, even those teams that don’t spend much at all. As the data shows, the Yankees have been consistently spending more per draft pick then the majority of the league. While people can complain that they didn’t draft such and such or sign who we want, we can’t say that they aren’t spending money.
2012 Draft Order Tracker
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s that time of year again, so our 2012 Draft Order page is back up and running. I’ll update it throughout the winter as picks change hands via free agent compensation, but right now it’s just the basic order with the comp picks for unsigned 2011 draftees included. The Yankees are currently picking 30th, 61st, 89th, and 92nd overall, but that is very subject to change.
2012 Draft: Yankees will have 30th overall pick
Posted by: | CommentsRegardless of the outcome of tonight’s game, the Yankees have clinched the second best record in baseball and will pick 30th overall in next June’s amateur draft. A compensation pick for an unsigned player earlier in the round pushes the pick back one from 29th overall. The Yankees have picked 30th overall twice before, once to take some guy named Gary Timberlake in 1966, and again to take Andrew Brackman in 2007. The Astros will pick first overall, followed by the Twins and Mariners.
The Yankees also have the 89th overall pick after failing to sign 2011 second rounder Sam Stafford. That pick can not be lost as compensation for signing a Type-A free agent, but the 30th overall pick sure can.
2012 Draft: Astros will select first overall
Posted by: | CommentsWith some help from the Twins, the Astros have clinched the worst record in baseball this year. That means they’ll pick first overall in next June’s amateur draft, and unfortunately for the Houston faithful, there’s no clear cut top talent in this class. Stanford’s Mark Appel is the early favorite to go first overall, but he’s hardly Stephen Strasburg.
The Yankees, meanwhile, can still pick anywhere from 26th to 31st. In all likelihood, they’ll pick 30th overall for the second time in six years (there’s a compensation pick earlier in the round that pushes everything back one). They took Andrew Brackman with the 30th pick back in 2007. Of course that pick could be surrendered as compensation for signing a Type-A free agent, say C.J. Wilson. The Yankees are also guaranteed to have the 89th overall pick after failing to sign second rounder Sam Stafford this summer.




