Archive for Draft

Via Aaron Fitt, Texas left-hander Sam Stafford will miss the 2012 season due to shoulder surgery. The Yankees selected Stafford with their second round pick last year, but they did not sign him after a physical revealed a small tear in his shoulder. They’ll receive the 89th overall pick in this year’s draft as compensation. The injury is really unfortunate for Stafford, who was poised to climb up the draft rankings this year as a hard-throwing lefty in a class generally considered short on college pitching.

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We’re still five months out from the actual event, but I guess that’s why they call it an early draft preview. Baseball America published a list of the top 100 draft prospects today, as well as a position-by-position breakdown of the draft class. It’s a pretty good year for catchers and middle infielders, but a little light on college arms. Both links are free for all, though subscribers can see scouting reports for each of the top 100 guys.

The Yankees currently own three of the top 91 and five of the top 154 picks, with their first selection coming 30th overall. They didn’t gain or lose any picks via free agent compensation, and won’t because all the Type-A’s have signed. No word on what the team’s draft spending limit (courtesy of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement) will be yet.

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The other day we heard about the smaller-than-expected draft pool and the inability to allocate the money for unsigned picks elsewhere, and now Jim Callis brings us even more draft changes. For one, they’re cutting ten rounds, so it’ll be just 40 rounds from now on. That’s actually a good change, they could probably lop off another ten rounds.

Another significant changes as to do with compensation picks for unsigned players. Teams will now get an extra year of protection, meaning if they can’t sign the guy they took with one of those comp picks, they will get a pick again the next year. If you can’t sign a player the third time, then too bad. That’s why they lose it. Also, any under-the-table agreements to circumvent the draft pool are strictly prohibited. There are no loopholes. I recommend clicking the link and reading Callis’ full recap, there are a lot more changes in there than I highlighted.

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Via Jim Callis, the pool for the first ten rounds of the draft is closer to $180M than the $200M that was reported last week. It doesn’t sound like a big difference, but it basically means each team will have ~$667k less to spend next draft. The Yankees have signed guys like Graham Stoneburner, Mark Melancon, and Dante Bichette Jr. for close to that amount in recent years.

Furthermore, Callis also says that if teams do not sign a pick, they will not be able to allocate that pick’s money elsewhere. There had been some speculation that clubs with extra picks would simply not sign one of their first rounders, then redistribute the money to get better players with their remaining extra picks. Teams won’t be able to do that, apparently. This new setup is about as close to hard slotting as you can get without actually implementing hard slotting.

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Just a short mailbag this week because a) I’m still full of turkey, and b) I want to enjoy the rest of the Thanksgiving weekend. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send in your future questions.

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Jason asks: So the word is out that Atlanta likes Eduardo Nunez. I certainly would not want Jair Jurrjens in a deal for the reasons mentioned on this site. My question is whether you think it is realistic to think a deal could be had for one of the other young pitchers in Atlanta, such as Brandon Beachy, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, or Julio Teheran?

I don’t think so. The Braves moved Derek Lowe and are trying to move Jurrjens so they can open spots for those young guys. I really like Beachy, but Nunez alone isn’t nearly enough to get him. The Yankees would have to expand a trade for him, or any of those other three guys you mentioned, rather significantly. Teheran and Delgado are their Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, so don’t expect them to move either guy for anything less than a proven, above-average big league regular.

Just for the record, I would jump all over a Nunez-for-Jurrjens trade. It’s a utility guy for a potential above-average starting pitcher, that’s a no-brainer. The problem is that it’s not realistic at all, the Yankees would have to give up a lot more. I have no interest in giving up multiple pieces for a guy that struggles to stay healthy.

Preston asks: If we were to trade Eduardo Nunez to the Braves, should the Yankees look into bringing in Jack Wilson as the utility infielder?

Even at 34 years old (35 next month), Wilson is still a wizard with the glove. He’s well-above-average at short and started to see time at second and third bases last year. The problem is he just can’t hit, at all. The last time he topped a .293 wOBA was 2007, and his OBP hasn’t been above .292 since 2008. He also doesn’t have any power (six homers since 2007, and five of those came in 2008) and hasn’t stolen more than five bases in a season since 2005. Wilson just doesn’t offer anything beyond his defense, and at his age that could start to slip. He’s basically a veteran version of Ramiro Pena. I’d rather see them go for someone you can bring a little more to the table.

Anonymous asks: I know everyone’s talking about the NEW CBA, and added wild card, HGH, but I was hoping to hear something where teams would be allowed to trade draft picks. No players or cash, just picks? Say, the Yanks wanted to trade the 30th pick, for an extra third or fourth round, just like all the other sports.

The six lottery picks given to the low-revenue clubs after the first and second rounds can be traded, but that’s it. Those picks will be in the 35-40 and 75-80 range (or thereabouts), and I’m curious to see how teams will value them in trades. The expected value of draft picks in baseball drop off big time after the first five or six selections, then they really bottom out after the 50th pick or so. Getting say, the 77th overall pick in a trade isn’t all that different than getting the 200th overall pick.

The new spending limits should, in theory, result in players being drafted in order of their talent rather than how affordable they are, and that will further depress the trade value of picks. I don’t think a team with a pick in the 35-40 range could expect to receive a top prospect in trade. A top prospect in Double-A is worth substantially more than a draft pick, even a top ten pick. Would the Yankees trade Banuelos for a number one overall pick next year? Not a chance, Manny’s already doing well in Double-A and that pick offers zero guarantees. Trading picks sounds like fun, but I don’t think we’d see many teams trading down for an extra fourth rounder. This isn’t the NFL, the value just isn’t there when you have 49 other picks to use.

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The following is a guest post from long-time reader Jake Hopkins, who you’ve probably seen in the comments as Jake H. He took a look back at how much money the Yankees have spent in the draft in recent years, something that will now be limited thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

In one of his regular Friday chats, someone asked Mike if the Yankees should increase how much they spend on the draft and/or international free agents. This has been something that Yankees fans have been complaining about since last year’s draft, the Yankees not spending enough. Wanting to find out if this was true, I looked at the last five drafts, but with a twist.

What I wanted to do was take out the first round money in the draft. I did this because the Yankees never have a chance to draft a guy like Eric Hosmer or Stephen Strasburg. By taking these large bonuses out we can see the teams that spend throughout the entire draft and not just on their first round pick. The Giants are a good example; in the last five years they’ve spent $31.921 million on the draft and $16.356 million on first round bonuses (52.1%).

This point is more evident when looking at the total number of first round and supplemental first round picks since 2007. The Yankees have had a total of just five draft picks in those rounds during that time. That’s tied for the lowest amount of draft picks along with the Orioles and Marlins. The Blue Jays and the Rays are tied with the most at fifteen picks during that five-year span.

What I did was take the first round’s salary out of the equation and added back in a dollar. I then took that amount and divided it by the number of total picks that signed for the five-year period. The Yankees spent an average of $182,790 per pick, which was the fourth highest total. The Red Sox were number one followed by the Pirates and then the Jays. The Yankees also had the least amount spent on the first round picks until the 15th spot which was the Phillies, and they aren’t known for spending on the draft.

So we now know what the Yankees spent on average on each non-first round draft pick over that five-year period. Here is a year-by-year break down…

  • 2007: $145,313 average draft pick spending, fifth most.
  • 2008: $150,000 average draft pick spending, tenth most. (Remember no Gerrit Cole or Scott Bittle)
  • 2009: $207,692 average draft pick spending, fourth most.
  • 2010: $205,214 average draft pick spending, seventh most.
  • 2011: $227,957 average draft pick spending, sixth most.

As the numbers show, the Yankees have increased their average spending on the draft over the last five years, with 2011 representing their highest average draft pick price. While the Yankees’ spending has increased, I’m sure people are saying that the MLB average has gone up. Yes it has, but not as much as you may have thought…

  • 2007: $95,985 average for all teams.
  • 2008: $131,825 average for all teams.
  • 2009: $132,878 average for all teams.
  • 2010: $143,813 average for all teams.
  • 2011: $136,268 average for all teams.

So there was a large jump in draft spending from 2007 to 2008, then the average spending stayed close to those numbers with 2010 being the highest. Now keep in mind that this takes all teams into account, even those teams that don’t spend much at all. As the data shows, the Yankees have been consistently spending more per draft pick then the majority of the league. While people can complain that they didn’t draft such and such or sign who we want, we can’t say that they aren’t spending money.

Categories : Draft, Guest Columns
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Bud Selig and MLBPA head Michael Weiner smile after taking the screws to the future of baseball. (REUTERS/Brendan McDermid)

Baseball officially announced its new Collective Bargaining Agreement this afternoon, a five-year pact between the owners and players’ association. The deal ensures at least 21 consecutive years of labor peace, which is great for the sport. I’m not so sure we can say the same about the rest of the deal though. Many of the changes will hurt baseball, especially in the long-term.

We’ve already recapped changes to the luxury tax, Type-A and B free agents, and the elimination of the Elias rankings, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. All of the CBA news below comes courtesy of the best reporters in all of sports, our beloved baseball writers. Props specifically go out to Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Bill Shaikin, Ken Rosenthal, and Danny Knobler. This is not a full recap, but Maury Brown has the entire CBA available. Let’s start with the most significant changes…

Draft Spending Limitations

  • There is no hard slotting, but teams are given a “draft pool” by MLB that they aren’t supposed to exceed. Teams that do exceed their pool by 5% will be taxed at 75%. Spending in excess of 5-10% will result in a 75% tax and a loss of the next year’s first round pick. Spending in excess of 10-15% results in a 100% tax and and loss of first and second round picks. Spending in excess of 15% results in a 100% tax and the loss of two first round picks. That’s harsh.
  • Something called the “Competitive Balance Lottery” gives extra picks to the small-market and low-revenue clubs. Six draft picks immediately after the first round will be given to the ten teams with the ten lowest revenues via a lottery system. A team’s odds of winning the lottery will be based on its winning percentage the prior season. There will be another lottery with six additional picks after the second round for the clubs that miss out on the first set of picks. These Competitive Balance Lottery picks can be traded, but other picks can not.
  • If a player drafted in the tenth round or later signs for $100k or more, the extra money counts against the team’s draft pool. I’m not entirely sure what that means, but I think it means you can sign a player drafted in the tenth round or later for $100k and it will not count against your pool. Don’t quote me on that.
  • The draft signing deadline has been moved up from August 15th to sometime between July 12-18th, depending on the All-Star Game. The college coaches will appreciate this.
  • Drafted players can only sign minor league contracts now, and the top 200 prospects will be subject to mandatory drug testing.

International Spending Limitations

  • Each team will be allowed to spend $2.9M on amateur free agents this year, or a hundred grand less than the Yankees gave Gary Sanchez in 2009. Starting next winter, the worst teams will be allowed to spend ~$5M while the best teams get to spend ~$1.8M.
  • Starting in 2013-2014, teams will be able to trade their international spending cap space, thought clubs will only be able to acquire an additional 50% of their cap. So if the Yankees are limited to a $3M cap, they can only trade for an additional $1.5M.
  • Players under 23 years old and with less than years of professional baseball experience will be considered amateurs and count against the spending cap. That means guys like Yoenis Cespedes and Japanese veterans will be treated as a true free agents. Japanese players run through the posting system will not count against the cap.
  • Players must register with MLB’s scouting bureau in order to be eligible to sign. That should cut down on the number of age and identity fraud cases. The top 100 prospects will be subject to drug testing.
  • A worldwide baseball draft is a “significant possibility” by 2014, and there are incentives in place for both sides to negotiate terms in the future.

Long story short, the MLBPA sold out its future members for the sake of its current members. The draft and international spending limitations are severe and will drive young talent away from the game, and you’ll see legitimate two-sport guys like Zach Lee and Bubba Starling be pushed to college by the spending restrictions. Teams also have little incentive to run a baseball academy in Latin America now. We’ll see the real impact of these changes in five or ten years, when there’s a sudden lack of young talent and barely enough real athletes to play the middle infield. Anyway, here is the lest of the CBA news…

Draft Compensation Changes

  • The following players are Type-A free agents but will be treated as Type-B free agents for the remainder of the offseason: Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Octavio Dotel, Ramon Hernandez, and Darren Oliver. A team will not have to give up a draft pick to sign them, and their old team will gain just one supplemental first rounder.
  • The following players are Type-A free agents but will not be treated as “modified” Type-A free agents: Heath Bell, Michael Cuddyer, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Madson, Josh Willingham, and Francisco Rodriguez. A team will not lose a pick to sign them, however their old club will still receive two picks. One will be a first round one spot after the team that signs them, the second a supplemental first rounder.
  • These changes can all be seen on our 2012 Draft Order page.
  • Players must still be offered arbitration if their former club wants to receive draft pick compensation. The deadline to offer arbitration is tomorrow, by the way.

Blood Testing For HGH

  • Players will be tested next Spring Training to determine their energy levels, and those test results will be discarded. Tests will be taken on non-gamedays unless the player volunteers to do it the day of a game. They’re essentially going to test the test, just to see how the players respond physically after giving blood.
  • Once the two sides see how the players respond, they will then determine how and when to proceed with in-season testing. Offseason testing will begin next winter, and the tests will not be random. There has to be reasonable cause.

Instant Replay

  • Replay will be expanding to include fair-or-foul plays as well as “trapped” ball plays. MLB and the umpires’ union must still discuss the final details. Hooray for this.
  • There will also be an “improved process for challenging official scorer decisions.” So now David Ortiz can complain about his RBI total without interrupting his manager’s press conference.

Equipment

  • Players will no longer be allowed to use those low-density maple bats that shatter and turn into dangerous sharp, flying objects.
  • The Great Gazoo helmet, which Frankie Cervelli wears following all his concussions, will be mandatory by 2013. The new version will be less bulky and hilarious looking.

Salaries

  • The minimum salary will rise from $414k this past season to $480k next season, and it will climb to $500k by 2014.
  • The top 22% of players (in terms of service time) with fewer than three years of MLB service will be considered Super Twos. Those folks are arbitration-eligible four times rather than three. It had been the top 17% previously.

New Policies & Programs

  • A new tobacco policy will be instituted, preventing tobacco products from being visible during interviews, interactions with fans, etc. Uniformed personnel can still use chewing tobacco, but the can can’t be visible and a wad of chew in a player’s cheek will draw a slap on the wrist from the union.
  • A “program of mandatory evaluation” is in place for players that commit alcohol-related offenses, including DUIs.
  • There will be some kind of “social media policy,” basically taking all the fun out of MLB players on Twitter.
  • Something called “market disqualification” says the top 15 markets will not be able to receive revenue sharing money by 2016, the final year of this deal.
  • I can’t believe they actually had to write this into the CBA, but there is now a policy in place that protects union members from discrimination stemming from their sexual orientation.

Miscellaneous

  • Participation in the All-Star Game is mandatory unless the player is injured or otherwise excused by the commissioner.
  • Rosters will expand to 26 players for “certain regular or split doubleheaders.” I kinda like that.
  • The extra wildcard team and expanded playoff setup will be instituted immediately, so there will be two wildcard clubs per league next season. It will in fact be a one-game playoff.

The owners get rather drastic spending restrictions on amateur players as well as expanded playoffs while the players get an increased minimum salary, more Super Twos, and better free agent compensation rules. Everyone wins … as long as you’re an owner or a union member.

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Oct
10

2012 Draft Order Tracker

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It’s that time of year again, so our 2012 Draft Order page is back up and running. I’ll update it throughout the winter as picks change hands via free agent compensation, but right now it’s just the basic order with the comp picks for unsigned 2011 draftees included. The Yankees are currently picking 30th, 61st, 89th, and 92nd overall, but that is very subject to change.

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Regardless of the outcome of tonight’s game, the Yankees have clinched the second best record in baseball and will pick 30th overall in next June’s amateur draft. A compensation pick for an unsigned player earlier in the round pushes the pick back one from 29th overall. The Yankees have picked 30th overall twice before, once to take some guy named Gary Timberlake in 1966, and again to take Andrew Brackman in 2007. The Astros will pick first overall, followed by the Twins and Mariners.

The Yankees also have the 89th overall pick after failing to sign 2011 second rounder Sam Stafford. That pick can not be lost as compensation for signing a Type-A free agent, but the 30th overall pick sure can.

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With some help from the Twins, the Astros have clinched the worst record in baseball this year. That means they’ll pick first overall in next June’s amateur draft, and unfortunately for the Houston faithful, there’s no clear cut top talent in this class. Stanford’s Mark Appel is the early favorite to go first overall, but he’s hardly Stephen Strasburg.

The Yankees, meanwhile, can still pick anywhere from 26th to 31st. In all likelihood, they’ll pick 30th overall for the second time in six years (there’s a compensation pick earlier in the round that pushes everything back one). They took Andrew Brackman with the 30th pick back in 2007. Of course that pick could be surrendered as compensation for signing a Type-A free agent, say C.J. Wilson. The Yankees are also guaranteed to have the 89th overall pick after failing to sign second rounder Sam Stafford this summer.

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