Archive for Draft

It seems like we hear this about the top draft prospects every year, but in yesterday’s chat at ESPN, Baseball America’s Jim Callis said that it’s not far-fetched to think Bryce Harper could fall out of the first round entirely next June. He notes that it’s “going to be almost impossible to live up to the hype, and if he falls short and is looking for big money–is Strasburg’s contract a starting point–he may scare off clubs, who know he can re-enter the 2011 and 2012 drafts and still have lots of leverage.”

The Yankees – currently picking 32nd overall – did operate on a budget last year, but scouting director Damon Oppenheimer hinted that things could have changed under special circumstances. That probably means the team would have jumped all over Stephen Strasburg if he’d fallen into their laps. I don’t think the Yankees would go out of their way to make sure they retained their first round pick (by not signing a Type-A free agent this offseason) for the off-chance that Harper drops, you’d almost always rather have the big leaguer (unless we’re talking about someone like John Grabow or Kevin Gregg).

Categories : Asides, Draft
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Oct
08

2010 Draft Order Tracker

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (28)

The regular season is over, so it’s time to bring back everyone’s favorite RAB feature: the Draft Order Tracker. It’s always available via the the nav bar above (under the street sign), so you can follow along this winter as draft picks change hands as the result of free agent compensation. Once the official Elias rankings are released, I’ll add them to the bottom of the post like last year, but for now I’ve got MLBTR’s projected rankings in there.

The Yanks could add as many as five compensation picks (based on Eddie Bajek’s rankings at MLBTR), but that assumes all ther Type-A and B free agents decline arbitration and sign elsewhere. Not bloody likely.

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Sep
30

2010 Draft: Nats clinch top pick

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (118)

It seemed inevitable pretty much all summer, but once the Pirates took down the Dodgers Monday afternoon, the Nationals officially clinched at least a tie for the baseball’s worst record, thus securing the top pick in the 2010 Draft (they also had the worst record last year, which acts as the tiebreaker). Tampa Bay was the first team in MLB history to have back-to-back first overall picks, taking David Price and Tim Beckham in 2007 and 2008, respectively. It took just two years for another team to turn that trick, and the Nats will have a chance to add Las Vegas uberprospect Bryce Harper to last year’s top choice, righty Stephen Strasburg.

In all likelihood, Pittsburgh and Baltimore will round out the top three selections in some order. By clinching the best record in baseball, the Yanks have locked into the final pick of the first round, #32 overall (Texas and Tampa failed to sign their first rounders). The Yanks could always forfeit that pick for signing a Type-A free agent. Our 2010 Draft Tracker will be up shortly after the end of the season.

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Draft coverage all-star Lane Meyer of NoMaas posted his review of this year’s draft class, grading the thing out on a pick-by-pick basis. I think Lane might be a little too optimistic with some of the grades (Caleb Cotham screams generic college starter to me), but there’s nothing wrong with that, and overall he did a great job. He gives the entire class a B+, but I’m a tough grader so I consider it more of a C+/B- haul because of the lack of an obvious impact player. Don’t get me wrong, Slade Heathcott and JR Murphy are studs, but more like above average regulars than true impact talents.

Anyway, make sure you head on over and check it out.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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Aug
19

Reforming the amateur draft

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (157)

When the dust settled on Monday and the MLB amateur draft signing deadline had passed, every Major League team had blown the slot system with at least one pick. For rich teams — the Yankees come to mind — the slot signings might as well have not existed. After all, the team signed their first-round pick for $2.2 million — or 100 percent over slot — and spent $7 million on the draft.

In a way, the 2009 draft and the subsequent bonuses are going to represent the end of an era. For the last few years, as Japanese players enjoy record signings and international free agents take home millions of dollars at age 16, both the players and owners have expressed a desire to reshape the draft process. While an international draft may not be as close to reality as many baseball analysts would prefer, a draft overhaul will be a centerpiece of the 2011 labor negotiations.

In The Times today, David Waldstein jumps into the draft fray. The owners, he reports, will seek an NBA-style mandatory slotting system when the collective bargaining negotiations next roll around. He reports:

Since 2002, baseball has made recommendations to teams as a guideline to follow, but that system could be on its way out. When the current collective bargaining agreement runs out in 2011, it is expected that baseball will seek a mandatory signing system for draft picks similar to the one used by the N.B.A…

In the N.B.A., each draft position is assigned a salary figure. It can be negotiated 20 percent above or below that figure, but is now almost always 20 percent above. In the N.F.L., there is a rookie salary pool, and each team can divide up the money however it wishes, as long as it does not exceed the total.

The N.B.A. model, in place since 1995, is the most appealing because it eliminates negotiating and controls costs. Therefore, teams are not afraid to take the best available player for fear they will not be able to sign him. “Theoretically, a fixed price for each pick in the draft is a mechanism that helps restore the draft to its original purpose,” Manfred said. “Teams know what the cost of the talent is, and they just take the best player.”

In other words, those concerns over signability go right out the window, and the top players selected are going to be the best regardless of money.

For the article, Waldstein chatted with Baseball America’s Jim Callis about the reform efforts. Callis notes that the players are not expected to push back too hard on the owner’s efforts at draft reform.

From a practical perspective, I endorse a mandatory slotting system. By all accounts, the Yankees could have signed many of their draft picks in late June or early July. They were prevented from announcing the deals, however, because baseball did not want the Yankees to blow slot so early in the process. Instead of giving Slade Heathcott and other top draftees a chance to get six weeks’ play at Staten Island or in the Gulf Coast League, the Yankees were forced to sit on their hands as other deals fell into place. Reform, in other words, will benefit everyone.

Feel free to use this as your open thread tonight. Ostensibly, the topic is draft reform, but anything goes. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are on ESPN, and we’ll be back at 9:30 with the game thread.

Categories : Draft, Open Thread
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Earlier this spring we found out from scouting director Damon Oppenheimer that he was given an actual budget to work with during this year’s draft, which promptly caused mass panic because, as we all know, the Yankees should have an unlimited budget for everything. Well, after last night’s last minute signing of 44th rounder Evan DeLuca for $500,000, the Yanks have spent at least $6.185M on this draft, and that doesn’t include the likely six-figure bonuses given to 12th rounder Brett Gerritse, 13th rounder DeAngelo Mack, and 14th rounder Graham Stoneburner among others. It’s not difficult to envision a scenario where the Yanks spent $7M on this draft.

$7M on one draft class is a ton of money, but just how much? The epiphany draft of 2006 – the one that landed Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, Mark Melancon, David Robertson and Dellin Betances – cost $6.7M. Just seven clubs spent more than that last year, and almost all of them had to shell major bucks out to top ten picks. By no means did the Yankees go cheap this year.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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Scott Boras asked the moon and the stars, and all he ended up getting Stephen Strasburg was a four year Major League deal worth $15.67M, according to Baseball America’s Aaron Fitt. It’s the largest deal in draft history, eclipsing the $10.5M guarantee the Cubs gave Mark Prior back in 2001. The Nats got a fantastic deal because they get a someone to stimulate their franchise at a “reasonable” price, but it’s also a great deal for Strasburg because he’s set for life based on how he pitched in college. There was no way this one wasn’t going to get done.

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Via Jim Callis, the Yankees have signed 16th rounder Bryan Mitchell to an $800,000 bonus. It’s the third largest bonus given out by the Yankees so far this year (that I know of). Callis says the North Carolina high schooler “throws a lively 90-91 mph fastball and a hard slider.”

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The deadline for teams to sign their draft picks is the stroke of midnight tonight, and you can expect most of the high picks to sign just a few minutes before that. You can read up on the Stephen Strasburg situation here; it’s not worth the bandwidth for me to regurgitate it all. I think he signs for something in the $18-22M range right before the deadline. That’s just too much money for him to pass up, and realistically his stock can’t get any higher.

The Yankees have already announced three significant signings today, landing first rounder Slade Heathcott for $2.2M, second rounder JR Murphy for $1.25M, and fifth rounder Caleb Cotham for $675,000. You can see all of the Yankees picks here, the names in bold are guys who have signed. As of right now, they’ve signed their top eight picks and 13 of their top 14.

My quick take: they definitely overpaid Heathcott, that’s 7th overall pick money. He’s just not that kind of talent, however the Yanks had their backs up against the wall because it was an unprotected pick. No complaints about the money given to the other two players, both are solid talents. I’m going to post my annual post-draft signing period top 30 prospects list on Wednesday, so be on the look out for that.

While we wait for some signings to be announced, use this sucker as an open thread to talk about all things draft. I’ll post more updates later as signings are announced.

Categories : Draft, Open Thread
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Via KLaw, the Yankees have agreed to terms with second rounder JR Murphy. The terms aren’t yet known, but slot money for his pick (#76 overall) was roughly $478,000. He’ll get more than that, probably seven figures. You can learn all about the high school catcher here.

Lane Meyer of NoMaas was all over this earlier today. The Yankees have now signed their top eight picks, and 13 of their top 14 picks.

Update (12:35am): Jim Callis says Murphy received $1.25M. That’s the largest bonus given out in the second round so far this year.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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