A Monday morning slap in the face

August 11, 2008 by Benjamin Kabak 18 Comments

Following Sunday’s diasppointing loss to the Angels, the Yanks have just 44 games left this season. That amounts to just 27 percent of the season, and things are starting to look a bit dire for the Yanks. As ESPN.com’s Coolstandings-pimped standings tell us, the Yanks’ playoff hopes are decreasing by the day.

With the Rays 8.5 games ahead of them in the East and the Red Sox four up in the Wild Card, the Yanks make the playoffs just 13.1 percent of the time when the rest of the season is simulated one million times. They win the division just 3.5 percent of the time and capture the Wild Card 9.5 percent of the time. While it’s a good thing that the games are played on the field instead of by computers, the Yanks better start winning sooner rather than later if they hope to play in October this year.

TurnTwo

figuring that it takes 92 wins for the WC, the Yankees need to win 29 of their last 44 games to get there, which is playing .660 baseball, or winning 2 out of 3.
- mustang
  
  Wow !!
  When you put it like that it seems even harder. I don’t know I’m hoping, but I just don’t know at least they are fighting even if their losing that a good sign.
  - TurnTwo
    
    and thats if it takes 92 wins for the WC.
    
    the sox can get to 92 wins by winning 25 of their next 44, by contrast… thats 55%, or just over half their remaining games.
austinNYfan

I don’t think we needed a computer to tell us this. It is going to be hard to watch a Yankee-less post season.

Unless they do a 180 its not going to happen. The injuries to Wang and Joba combined with the inept play by rest of the team (with a few exceptions) have made it a difficult year in the beginning of the post-Torre era. Right now, the Yankees don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.

I think a MAJOR PROBLEM with the Yanks this year is that their lineup is very streaky, offensively. It seems they can’t put it ogether at the same time. They have some major hot streaks and real droughts esopecially Abreu, Cano, and Giambi. The Yanks really count on these guys and they just can’t find a way to get on the same page.
Old Ranger

I’m still looking at the way we are losing games, not doing the little things that help put a number in the win row.
It would be nice to make the playoffs but, if they are out in Sept., that wouldn’t be bad…for next season. Tryouts for next season would be in order, don’t you know.
Where is it written the Yanks must play (lose mostly) in the post season? Let’s NOT give up, but let’s not make it the epicenter of our lives. Better days are around the corner, if Cash can get some young athletes for this team. 27/09?
Setty

I hate looking at the schedule and saying “we have to win so and so games to make the playoffs”, or “we have to play .660 baseball”, etc. Baseball is completely unpredictable. All it takes is literally one good week and we’re even closer to the Sawx, with 6 to play against them. If we go 5-1 this week, you have to figure we’d pick up a game, maybe 2 – which would slice the wild card lead in half. Obviously, the Yanks have to go out and play good baseball, but we just need to take it a game at a time. I know that’s stupid and cliche, but it really is true. We have so many games with teams that are ahead of us, we just need to worry about ourselves, that’s all. Computers indicated last season that we had to play like .660 baseball starting from the All-Star break, and despite playing close to that clip, we ended up taking the wild card in easy fashion. Let’s just get the ball rolling tonight and take it from there
- The Honorable Congressman Mondesi
  
  Amen.
JRVJ

Personally, I don’t think the Yanks will make the post-season this year. Injuries and inconsistency have gutted the Yankees (frankly, injuries are probably the biggest problem, because a Yankee team with Posada, Matsui, Wang, Phil Hughes, Bruney and Albeladejo all season probably would be right there with the BoSOx)

Having said that, I’ll enjoy the rest of the season, and hope the Yankees can prove me wrong.

2009 shapes up to be a very interesting year, and needless to say, I think the 2009 Yanks will be better than the 2008 Yanks.
Pingback: River Ave. Blues | Will the Yankees make the 2008 playoffs?
scott

Let’s face it…when you only have two reliable starting pitchers the chances of going on a 9-1 run against the competition the yanks will be facing is not very likely. Even if they did sneak in would anybody put money on them against the angels in the first round? Maybe missing the playoffs will force them to sign Sabathia and get us the true ace we have been lacking. When the conversation for the yankees shifts from whether they will win it all to whether they will sneak in to the wildcard you know big changes must be made.
- steve (different one)
  
  they are going to try to sign Sabathia no matter what happens from here on out.
Nickel

How about they just win 1 game out of their next 1?
barry

I just don’t think this team can do it.
http://RiverAve.Blues Joseph M

Alot of good comments here. To start with does anyone need a computer to tell them the Yanks have very little chance of making the post season. I also agree that not making the playoffs would not be the worse thing in the world. What’s the sense of making the playoffs if the the end result is folding like a lawn chair
at the first sign of trouble.

This is a transitional year for the Yankees, the year of our discontent if you will. The team is getting older and obviously this is becoming a bigger and bigger issue. Jeter will be starting his 14th year at short next year and signs of decline we have seen this year will only get worse. The starting catcher (Posada) will be 38 years old next year. How many teams have won a championship with a 38 year old catcher behind the plate. I don’t care what anyone says, Giambi has got to go as does Abreu leaving two huge holes to fill. A centerfielder has to be found, Melky has played himself out of the starting line up.

Look at the pitching, Andy, Mo, Moose age, age, age. Joba is the hope but Hughes has to be a real concern his breakdown this year marks the third major DL stay in his career. Kennedy has issues, his professional make up is troublesome to say the least.

The bottom line, making the post season is the least of our concerns. This club would be easy pickings for our likely 1st round opponent (Angels). The retooling job that needs to be done to get this team back to a competitive level will be a major undertaking and I’m not sure Cashman is the man for the job.
- Nickel
  
  “The starting catcher (Posada) will be 38 years old next year. How many teams have won a championship with a 38 year old catcher behind the plate.”
  
  Well, granted they didn’t win a championship, but Carlton Fisk did have an OPS+ of 134 as a catcher for the White Sox at age 42.
  
  (Not comparing Posada to Fisk; just pointing out that it’s been done.)
- mike
  
  I agreee with 99% of what you said, especially with the knowledge that the Halos will smoke the Yanks in the playoffs anyway. I think this and next years are transition years, especially with the 2009 FA’s of Nady, Matsui, Marte, Damon – as well as Moose and Pettite if they come back for 2009.
  
  Next year they will be ok losing both Giambi and Abreu, even without Tex coming over, as Posada wil need a place to play and thus will likely be at 1B most of the time with his rehab ongoing, and Nady will take over for Abreu and be an adequate replacement. This is not preferred, but I would rather have Posada at 1B for 2009 ( and maybe 70% of the time in 2010 ) with his money locked up than bring back Giambi for an expensive cameo.
  
  Matsui and Damon will be rotating the DH/LF, and perhaps a little CF for Damon if he feels good.
  
  Personally , bring Manny to NY – stick him in LF, and Damon in CF, with Matsui spelling Manny sometimes and Christian/Gardner/Edny Chavez type on the bench to play for damon sometimes and run for Matsui/Manny/Posada if needed.
  
  If CF will be too hard on Damon, have him play with Matsui in RF and put Nady in CF – yes the outfield D will be poor, and noodle-arms will be abound, but maybe the short RF will be ok for Damon/Matsui.
  
  This will bridge 2009, and then the Yanks could chose between Nady, Damon and Matsui for 2010 ( and beyond), leaving CF open for Ajax or whomever is available FA – or take Matsui and put him at 1B when Posada goes back behind the plate in 2010
  
  Still think the Captain should be in CF next year……………
http://highlandermadness.blogspot.com Rayblay

I’m confused… the playoff percentages seem really inaccurate. Minn is 1/2 GB of Chi and their run diff is +37 as opposed to Chi’s +65… yet the Twins have a 1.8% better chance to make the playoffs???
A.D.

These simulations aren’t going to take into account if Pavano, Hughes, and Joba can return the rotation, and provide a massive boost