Open Thread: KLaw’s farm system rankings
ByFriend of RAB Keith Law posted his 2009 Organization Rankings over at the four-letter, and the Yanks came in at number fifteen, right in the middle of the pack. Here’s a snippet:
For the first time in several years, the Yankees’ system is light on impact talent, with major question marks on each of the top four prospects. The 2008 draft class doesn’t offer much hope — the Yankees’ first pick reversed course on them midsummer and decided to go to college; their third pick had a medical issue and didn’t agree to terms; and the resulting crop of players doesn’t offer much upside.
The four prospects with major question marks are Austin Jackson (raw), Jesus Montero (position), Andrew Brackman (health) and Dellin Betances (command, mechanics). As you probably remember, Baseball America also rated the Yanks system 15th overall, so we have some consensus here. The system is definitely down from the past few years, but a middle of the pack farm system is better than a bottom of the barrel one.
Law’s top 100 prospects list is due out tomorrow, but ESPN’s editors jumped the gun a bit and posted them briefly today. The top five are Matt Wieters (C, Orioles), David Price (LHP, Rays), Jason Heyward (OF, Braves), Neftali Feliz (RHP, Texas), and Travis Snider (OF, Jays). All I can tell you about the Yanks’ prospects is that Jackson came in at number 46, while Montero and Brackman squeezed in on the back half. If you have any beef with the rankings, take it up with Keith during his 1pm chat tomorrow.
Here’s your open thread for the night. Both the Knicks and Nets are in action, and Idol’s on. Woo hoo. Take about whatever you like, just keep it civil.
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Does anyone have both an Xbox 360 and a PS3? If so, which one do you prefer? For what reasons?
Please respond if you can. Thank you in advance.
I have a PS3, my brother has a 360. My brother has played both (obviously) and said he prefers the PS3.
I’ve played both, and I prefer the 360. it’s all about preference.
Look at what games are available for EACH system, that’s somewhere to start.
I have both. There is absolutely no difference, just pick the one that your friends have, so you can play with them online. 360 has a more comfortable controller, slightly better graphics, better multimedia stuff(NETFLIX). PS3 has bluray, free online play, and built in wifi. Its personal preference.
ps3=blu ray …. enough said right there.
I like PS3 over 360, the main reason being I’m more comfortable with the PS3 controller over the years…which can make a big difference
I’ve got both.
I like my 360 much better.
+I like the games better
+Multiplatform games seem to run a bit better (I know I’m sounding like fanboy right now but I’ve got Assassin’s Creed for PS3 and the framerate goes to hell on rooftops when compared to 360…though I think this is being weeded out as developers ‘learn’ the ps3 code a bit more).
+I think the controller trounces the PS3 controller
However…
The Show (PS3) destroys every other baseball game out there and the PS3 is a ridiculously good BluRay for the price….which is a HUGE plus.
Overall, it’s definitely all about preference. If you’re split on the game library and don’t have a preference on the controller, then get a PS3. I just personally like my 360 better for the reasons I stated above.
mlb the show is the best game in the market now..
Not best baseball game, not best sports game (although 08 did win that award from all outlets), but imho, the best GAME in the market..
and for that.. ps3 wins for me.
ps – mlb the show 09 is even better.
I saw the quick peak. Fernando Martinez was in the top 25. Really. Lars Anderson came in at #7. Keith is a fair guy right? He gave alot of love to the RS farm system.
As an aside … What exactly makes Andrew McCutchen a far superior prospect than Austin Jackson. I understand Jackson not comparing to larger guys (Maybin), but why shouldnt he be right there with McCutch?
McCutchen’s not nearly as raw as Jackson.
What does this mean?
I assume it means Ajax projects to be good, whereas McCutchen is more MLB ready and thus a more sure thing
wow klaw really doesnt like hom some ajax
Well, he’s young, has only been a full-time ballplayer for 3-4 years, and still struck out a bunch in AA. And didn’t have a great AFL showing to quiet any doubts either. In short…the fans clamoring for him to be in the competition with Gardner/Melky this spring are REALLY jumping the gun. Spring 2010 is certainly possible as an arrival time, if he has a big year at AAA…but he probably needs that full year of experience. Maybe even a bit more…which would NOT MAKE HIM A BUST. He’d still be what…24? if he didn’t arrive until June 2011.
Definitely dude. I hope he spends pretty much all of next year at scranton (unless he’s kicking so much ass and taking so many names they have no choice to bring him up) until the big team expands the rosters. Hopefully by then we’ll have a nice 10-15 game division lead and can let a few rooks get some serious pt. I’d also like to see hughes and ipk get a solid amout of time at scranton too.
*wow klaw really doesnt like him some ajax
Frankly, the rankings of prospects really doesn’t amount to much. What does count is what trade value they have in the eyes of other teams or how they actually perform when they are called up. Other than that, its just good fodder for bar talk.
Too many players ranked high on the list don’t go anywhere. They struggle when in the big leagues. Others who little was expected can suddenly shine.
Maybin is a great example to look at. He was terrible when he was called up. It doesn’t mean he will always be eh, but ranking prospects is what people do during the off season to fill in space.
What is he nuts? Just having Brandon Laird’s name on paper makes the Yankees’ farm system a top 5 system.
Mike,
We should do another competition. who can guess the team and date Manny signs lol the winner gets some bleacher seats to a Sux game from me haha
Mine:
Dodgers
February 2nd
by the way, i can’t afford bleacher seats for myself. it was a joke
Yay I now have a link to show stupid Sux fans that we DO have a farm system. Stupid bandwagon fans don’t know anything about baseball…
Not much to brag about the sox are rated much higher and have a guy in the top 10 whereas our top guy is 46th.
No they do have a better farm system than us. I mean that it shows we have great potential and we don’t rely on free agents all of the time. Those wannabe fans don’t know anything.
whos ready for some LOST !!!!!!!!!!!!! ? !!!!!!!!!!!!!
(raises hand)
I believe KLaw originally wrote “The Yankees top prospects all have flaws: Austin Jackson (raw), Jesus Montero (position), Andrew Brackman (health), and Dellin Betances (command, mechanics). However, the simple presence of Melvin Croussett gives the Yankees by far the best farm system in baseball. Croussett’s upside is greater than that every baseball player in the history of the game combined. Croussett will be the future all-time leader in HRs, RBIs, hits, ave, OBP, OPS+, wOBA, WARP, VORP, WHIP, FIP, ERA+, wins, and strikeouts, by the end of his first season.” However, ESPN made him change the post.
Hahahah! Nice!
Mike, I saw you give Brackman the slight nod over Betances. Why? Right now Brackman is almost all projection and has pitched very little. Wheras Dellin has is 3 years younger than Brackman, has logged more innings than Brackman at that age and has a better health history than Brackman. It seems you’re placing all the value on projection, and I know you’re aware there are other factors that have equal or more weight. Dellin is almost as good on ceiling, and blows him away on Health and everywhere else since he at least has some numbers to measure.
Brackman’s stuff is better, as his command (or at least it was pre-TJ). Betances has done it at a higher level, but we’re talking about Low-A. It is nitpicking, both have enormous upside.
Brackman had pretty awful command, and his curve was not inspiring.
Only thing Brackman had as college pitcher was velocity.
Yeah, I don’t get the “stuff” argument, since they’re apparently based on 3 year old scouting reports. He was bad in 06, mediocre in his last year in college (07), and has been hurt since then. And again, he’s barely pitched.
both have enormous upside.
Is that better than, less than, or equal to ridiculous upside?
The scale is:
1. Ridiculous upside
2. Enormous upside
3. Crazy upside
4. Super high upside
5. High upside
6. Strong upside
7. Some upside
8. No upside (aka “he is what he is”)
9. Gritty
10. Igniter
11. He does the little things that help the team win
12. He plays the game the right way
He plays the game the right way, just not very well.
The scale is:
1.) Mo
2.) Melvin Croussett
3.)
Ridiculous upsidetommiesmithjohncarlos4.) Enormous upside
5.) Crazy upside
6.) Super high upside
7.) High upside
8.) Strong upside
9.) Some upside
10.) No upside (aka “he is what he is”)
11.) Gritty
12.) Igniter
13.) He does the little things that help the team win
14.) He plays the game the right way
Fixed.
CC Sabathia has enormous backside.
But Brackman’s like 2 inches taller. Thus all your well-reasoned points are rendered moot.
Damn. Imagine if we would have signed Manute Bol in the 80s.
Betances has 2 pitches, Brackman has 3, maybe 4.
But how do you know that? Check out his Cube page
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....kman.shtml
Is there anything there that screams out “#1 starter” to you? Shouldn’t you dominate somewhere to earn that tag if you really have 3-4 plus pitches?
The Yanks like to compare Brackman to David Price, take a look at his college resume in relation to Brackman’s.
(Avoiding the spam filter) Here’s Price
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....ce-1.shtml
That’s someone who I can believe is a future ace.
Oh come on, you should know that college stats don’t mean much of anything. Go look at Ian Kennedy’s numbers at USC, they don’t get much better than that.
At least he has some college stats worth discussing, unlike Brackman. And while they certainly aren’t determinative, they aren’t worthless, either. Good MLB pitchers usually dominate at every lower level.
I think we both agree that Brackman is a project (as is Dellin). With that being the case, I will favor the other project who is further along at this point in Dellin.
I dunno about the health factor. Dellin hasn’t been a picture of health since he turned pro. I’m sure you saw that he was sidelined for both elbow and shoulder problems since pitching for the yankees. Brackman had his surgery and now appears to be %100 healthy and ready to go. I don’t think betances is as out of the woods as u make him out to be.
No, his health is very much an issue too. I do think he’s a much better bet than Brackman though. He’s showing rapid signs of adjustment with his brilliant second half. To go from 6.50 BB/9 to 2.50 BB/9 is really something else.
I just look at Brackman as a guy who had two weapons: velocity and height, and not much else. He was mediocre in college; he had shitty command; he had terrible health. He can hardly even be considered a “college pitcher” because of how few innings he has pitched. Betances already likely has more polish as a high school pitcher who’s much younger.
On top of all this, he was given a horrible major-league contract, which puts real pressure on him to get going quickly.
But, of course for fans, it all comes back to the most visible attributes: velocity and height, so I think the Brackman has been way overhyped.
What’s so horrible about his contract? He doesn’t have to stick in the bigs until at least 2012, more likely 2013 because they can get an extra option on him because he missed all of ’08.
And please, let’s see Betances sustain that low walk rate for more than 6 weeks before we consider it rapid progression. Remember that in the second half of the season, all of the best players in the league get bumped up to the next level and replaced by kids from the next level down. There’s a diluted talent pool.
I can understand liking Betances over Brackman, but it’s not as clear cut as you make it.
I really don’t buy the Dellin shoulder injury from last year. I think that was their excuse to send him down to Tampa to work with Nardi. It was a way to get him to start over in mid season. A promotion to High-A Tampa would have made no sense, he was pitching in Low-A Charleston.
I don’t think so. If they wanted to send him down to work with Nardi, they’d just do it. They wouldn’t make up an injury, especially a shoulder injury. That’s a pretty dumb excuse.
Yeah, teams never lie about injur. . . wait a minute. So they’d promote him and have him face more advanced hitters just to work with Nardi? That sounds pretty ‘dumb’ as well.
Also, I think you underestimate the office politics involved with the top kids. Scouting Directors know their stock with the organization rises and falls with the top prospects. You almost NEVER see any of the top guys demoted, even when the richly deserve so. Tabata should have been sent down a level last year, and Eric Duncan hasn’t done anything in the past 4 years to deserve a promotion, yet he was promoted steadily.
What promotion? They sent him down, he sat around for three weeks because Extended Spring Training was over, made three appearances in Rookie ball (6.1 innings) and was back in Charleston.
Funniest thing I have seen in a while.
http://beta.mnet.co.za/mnetvid.....egoryId=79
I’ve seen that before. I love how his friends just ignore his cries of pain.
Funny as hell though.
Not letting me post youtube videos. Go and watch 2008 nba mascot bloopers. So funny.
“In good times, in bad times, I’ll be on your side forever mooooore. That’s what friends are for.”
Did you guys really pay 100$ to be on Lohud’s list of links? or did I miss Pete’s sarcasm.
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/200.....-a-little/
He was joking. Either that or he likes us and added us for free.
People need to remember how young AJax and Montero are. They’re not exactly busts…
Hush, you and your logical sentiments are not welcome!
Bah!
http://i435.photobucket.com/al.....Button.jpg
For the first time in several years, the Yankees’ system is light on impact talent
They have impact talent its just way more boom or bust than sure thing… Yanks system could jump quickly if 1 or 2 guys blossom
I really don’t even care about the # of impact guys KLaw or anyone else thinks we have. That changes so much from year to year. Cano and Wang were never highly thought of, and they probably saved our 06 season. Nobody saw Phil Coke or Aceves coming last year, or Edwar the year before. Yet they filled in valuable innings and did a good job for us.
The guys who can come in and help us win MLB games matters more to me than any ranking. If our farm system reliably patches holes in our rotation and bullpen over the course of the season, it will have served its purpose for me.
Klaw doesnt know what he’s talking about. Our minor league affiliates in milwaukee and anaheim (Or is it LA?) just produced cc sabathia and mark teixeira.
Well done sir.
I laughed.
Law is obviously not impressed with our 2008 draft results….when that sentiment was expressed by folks here during the summer, they got blasted……yet I haven’t seen anyone take him to task about this……has the local sentiment changed? Do we now agree with him?
I don’t remember anyone saying it was good. The talent was good, but the guys that signed kinda suck.
Even Brett Marshall? The Yanks gave the guy almost 1 mil, they must see something there.
Before you get down on the draft, remember how far down we took Joba…
sandwich pick, wasn’t it? not very far down….
IPK taken ahead of him, too.
Mike linked to his post on IGWT today and it said IPK was considered the “most sure thing” of any pitcher in the draft. IPK has to be successful in the bigs. Probably with another team but I do believe he will be at least a number 4 or 5. Maybe the NL.
I know most fans have tossed in the towel on IPK, but I haven’t given up on him. I thought that in both his and Hughes’ case last year they were simply trying too hard. IPK got bat shy and Hughes was too predictable.
Hughes needs his fastball back.
The talent was good. . .but no one signed. No Cole or Bittle really hurt. Anders could have helped. A few players that did sign are interesting (Lassiter, Marshall), but when you do not get the impact talent, your draft takes a hit.
The Yankees draft was a lot better than many are saying. There’s not a guy who can instantly dominate and climb all the way to AA, but there is a lot of talent. Marshall, Higashioka, Lassiter (especially Lassiter), Turley come to mind as guys who could really do a lot of good next year. Brad Rulon signed early and put up cartoonish numbers in SI. David Adams, Corban Joseph and David Phelps are all unheralded picks that everyone should keep an eye on.
The lack of Cole brings the draft down a whole letter grade, and Bittle was no real loss (and honestly a really bad pick, although the Yankees had been after him in the 2007 draft as well). We’ll see who will fall to them in 2009, and the loss of Cole may seem like no great loss at all.
With Cole, the 2008 draft could have been a third-straight awesome draft for the Yankees. Instead, it was merely above-average.
And, who knows about Bleich. People panned the pick, but he’s healthy, has better stuff than advertised, and put up damn good numbers so far.
well he blasts it by saying that we didn’t sign our 1st & 3rd pick, not that Bliech, Lassiter & co. aren’t talented.
If things go right in the minors this year they system will jump, I don’t know who is directly around the Yanks in terms of system rank, but my guess is they could be a bit higher.
I agree with you, but I agree with Law also…..by getting aced out of the 1 and 3, then falling flat on the international signings, we basically crapped out for 2008……if we do the same in 2009 because we gave up some of the picks for FA signings, we could go the other way…..in my mind, if we dont (or cant) succeed in the draft, we need to make up for it by not letting the KC’s and Oaklands of the world outflank us in the international signings…….I think we did a very marginal job on both last year…..since it is really too early to know everything (takes at least 3 years), I hope I am wrong, and some of the lower picks come through.
…then falling flat on the international signings…
Explain, please.
That’s code for “they should have signed that Inoa kid.”
Or “Our DR scouting director got pinched by the Feds”
LOL….I forgot that….
how did we do on the international signings…..my recollection is that we had problems there also, and that some of the lesser teams like KC, Oakland, etc seemed to grab the big names…..look, since we dont get to see these guys, we can only go by what we read….from what I read, we didn’t exactly make a splash in the international arena…..and coming off of the problems at the top of the June draft, I just think we missed a chance to make up for it.
Big names don’t mean anything, it’s all hype. There’s so little information about these kids that whatever info we have gets extrapolated out into something completely ridiculous. Signing six prospects for $300,000 is better than signing one for $1.8M.
ok, you could be right….then what do you attribute Law’s reactions to, and his pushing us down to 15? or do you disagree with his opinions?
No I agree.
…then what do you attribute Law’s reactions to, and his pushing us down to 15?
How about the fact that 70% – Chamberlain; Tabata; Kennedy; Horne; Gardner; Ohlendorf; Marquez – of the 2008, top-ten list either graduated (Chamberlain, Kennedy and Gardner), departed the organization (Tabata, Ohlendorf and Marquez) or fell off a cliff due to injuries (Horne).
well, maybe Law will say that when we get to read the entire report…..but I doubt it….
Dude, what is there to doubt? You can’t expect anything but a drop-off when 70% of the top ten prospects in an organization are no longer prospects in the organization. You can’t expect that farm system to get better or stay status quo, that just doesn’t make sense.
from the snippet that Mike A posted above, I think Law feels that the 2008 draft didn’t replenish the talent to an appreciable degree……and I (and it appears Mike A) agree with him…..
How can you call the international signings “falling flat”? You won’t see any results for years. That’s kind of a ridiculous statement
I hate Curt Schilling.
What he do now?
Nothing new, just seeing him being a douche on the recap of the 2001 season.
Alot of shit happened that season huh. ALOT of stuff.
He’s still breathing.
He actually wrote a really nice tribute to Todd Drew. I hate him, but not as much.
Is anyone watching Idol?
I must admit I do flip over to Idol during timeouts in the Knicks game.
Danilo Gallinari rules!!!! He is not teh bust!!!
I still say they should of taken either Gordon or Augustin over him.
Matt Wieters and Travis Snider will finish in some order of one/two for AL ROY.
Price, Laporta, and Porcello could have a shot also. What about NL? Dexter Fowler, Rasmus, Maybin?
Oh man I wish the Yankees had gotten Porcello. A friend of mine is a Tigers fan and I still bitch to him about the Tigers taking him before the Yankees could.
Yeah, those three for the NL sound about right.
Porcello would have been a Red Sox if they didn’t sign Julio Lugo.
I like Fowler in the NL. He’s going to have a bunch of Coors aided numbers and make a bunch of flashy diving catches that the voters love. My sleeper was James McDonald until the Dodgers decided they were going to make him a reliever because he looked so good in the playoffs. God that’s dumb.
You sure they aren’t going to Chad Billingsley him?
I suppose they could, but they made it sound like it was a permanent move.
Ah, they said it was because Ramon Troncoso was doing so well as a starter in winter ball, that’s why they’re moving him to relief.
You’re joking…
Found the article:
They said “might,” but even that is retarded.
http://tinyurl.com/7mepv5
Permanent would be dumb, but I like the idea of bringing starters along at the big league level as relievers. Many good to great pitchers got their start out of the pen. Johan and Guidry come to mind right away.
Its unfortunate that some people think they should stay there, but that’s their problem. Its still a good way to develop a pitcher. Lets him get his feet wet at the MLB level.
break his leg?
Porcello would have been a Yankee if Dave Dombrowski wasn’t such an asshole.
..and we would have a top 10 system!!! ARG
Especially losing Penny and Lowe. You would think McDonald would make the rotation.
What is their rotation:
Bills
Kershaw
Kuroda
Scott Elbert
Schmidt ?
They signed Claudio Vargas and have Troncoso. I can’t imagine they would let Elbert start, he threw just ~50 innings last year after major shoulder surgery.
Matt Laporta won’t make an impact in 2009, and Rick Porcello definitely won’t make an impact in 2009. However, I agree with the rest of your choices.
How could Porcello throw 125 innings last year? Is that not alot for a 19 year old?
They had him on a 75 pitch limit all season, so the kid starting throwing a sinker to get quick outs so he could go deep into games. That’s nuts. 19 yr olds aren’t supposed to be that smart.
How many pitches does he have?
Excellent write-up of him right here: http://www.saberscouting.com/2.....lloreport/
Thank you sir.
I remember my friend sent me that back in April and when I read this, my jaw fucking dropped:
“ETA: Almost ready to contribute now, full-time in MLB by All-Star break 2009″
No problem, yo.
He’ll probably be up by the second half. Detroit needs pitching in the worst way, and the kid is just too good to hold him down.
Beckett came out of high school and only made 37 starts in the minors before coming up. Porcello’s at 24 starts.
Looking forward to it.
Yeah, but I think he had a bit of Mark Melancon in him (i.e. getting though innings quickly).
Snider’s my pick, but Brett Anderson’s my sleeper.
I just looked up his numbers on BR. He has a 243/48 (5.06) K/BB ratio. That is insane.
Got him in the Haren deal.
Am I alone in thinking that Haren was better than Webb last year?
No, Haren was excellent all year, Webb tailed off a bit. Haren has a 737-177 (4.16) strikeout to unintentional walk ratio in his four full seasons. That’s nuts.
The way Haren started his season in 07 was the greatest stretch of his career though. Didn’t he have like a 1.8 ERA at the AS break? The dude was completely dominant. Just at the right time for Beane, to deal him off for an amazing package.
Anderson, Gonzalez, Eveland, and Smith plus more. They got so much.
Anyone a Jet fan? What do you guys think about Rex Ryan?
Not a Jet fan but he’s awesome. Dude has run great defenses and he has that attitude of a coach. He should of been the SD Chargers coach but they wanted Norv for some reason.
I approve. Would have preferred Cowher, but I’ll take it.
Though not a Jets fan, I think Ryan is the best available coach.
Does anyone else think he has the name of 1950s film noir private eye?
So I got a Matt LaPorta signed bat.
How much is it gonna be worth in ten years? 20? 40?
A million SpaceBucks.
Payable to Pizza the Hut.
Or else pizza is gonna send out…for you!
UConn is doing everything they can to blow this game. STAY ON YOUR FEET ON THE SHOT FAKES!
Go Nova!
I hate you.
Woo!
GO ORANGE! EVEN IF YOU SUCK!
UNC wins it all.
UNCUConn wins it all.Now you’re talking.
No sire, Tyler’s hungry.
over-RATED
He is not an overrated NCAA player.
Jeff Adrien is hungrier.
UNCUConnNJIT wins it all.Now you’re talking.
Peter Gammons pinch hitting on Nomaas…Haha
They might of went a little too far when talking bout the strokes though.
Yeah, I could have did w/o the jokes about his illness.
“Jason Varitek called me on the phone the other day, his authoritative fingers dialing each number with purpose. He wanted me to know something that I couldn’t make out because I thought I was being cranked called by Mickey Mouse”
Anybody here is of the opinion that Rich Harden might get signed to a Brad Penny-esque contract during the 2009 off-season? I mean, in conjunction with his horrid medical history, he’s still working through shoulder issues as we speak.
You can argue that he has the best stuff in baseball when healthy. Something Penny does not. I see him getting more.
I can see it. If Harden makes 30 starts this year though, all is forgotten. Teams will be falling all over each other to hand him a 4yr deal.
You know a guy has a checkered medical history when you feel more comfortable signing a 32-year-old A.J. Burnett to a five-year pact over Rich Harden – who would be coming off his age-27 season in 2009 – to a four-year deal.
Most of the economists I’ve heard lately think that the economy next year will be very similar to this year, so the 2009-10 free agent market may be very similar to this year’s if that holds true.
So unless one of the big market teams really needs him, I think he’ll wind up in the Ben Sheets category. Sheets threw 190 IP and still can’t find a job because he wants 2 years/18 mil.
Sheets threw 190 IP and still can’t find a job because he
wants 2 years/18 milended the year with an elbow injury, and there are concerns about his shoulder after teams took a look at his medical records.Fixed.
Sheets mostly got affected by the late season injury and apparently the medicals show he won’t be 100% or the seasona dn so no one wants him. Has nothing to do with last year’s stats but obviously health is the only reason.
People need to realize that as more and more small market teams get in on the latin american signings and overslot draft picks the prices are going to start going up. As the prices escalate those small market teams are not going to be able to afford to keep up with the rest of the big spenders. It may seem like the yankees competitive advantage is being eroded by teams throwing more money into the draft but in another year or two the market correction will fully manifest itself, signing bonuses will be proportionately higher and our advantage will again reign supreme.
Good points.
Looks like Garcia is coming to a NY team.
Pray it’s the Mets. Unless you mean Karim Garcia.
I would absolutely love that signing. Even if it’s a major-league pact, the drop-off in production if he does not produce is Phil Hughes, who, by the way, is another low-risk, high-reward option.
I’m going to have to agree with you there Jamal.
Exactly. What’s the risk?
This was discussed in an a post a few days ago.
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....rcia-6922/
I think the question “What’s the risk?” is less important than the question “What’s the upside?” Freddy Garcia is 34 and he’s missed most of two seasons due to shoulder problems. The last year he was healthy, all that he really had to recommend him was the large number of league average innings he provided. It seems incredibly doubtful that Garcia will provide a large number of innings, especially since he couldn’t make it through winter ball unscathed. Therefore, the best we could realistically hope for is a small number of league average innings, and with Aceves, Kennedy and Hughes we could replace that.
I suppose this doesn’t address the “why not?” factor. I agree that Garcia probably wouldn’t make the team worse by his playing, but that doesn’t take into account the opportunity cost of such a deal. If it’s a major league deal, who do we bump from the 40 man for him? The roster is full of players that are members of the major league team or minor leaguers that we would prefer not to expose to other teams. So who goes to make room? Would you trade any one on the 40-man straight up for Freddy Garcia?
See http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....cult-6852/
If he signs on a minor league deal, I’ll admit that I overreacted, but seeing as there are apparently two teams interested, I doubt this will be the case.
Lost is awesome!
Who is this Oneli Perez guy we picked up last year. Any upside here?
He became a 6yr minor league free agent after the year. I think he signed with the Padres.
I can’t leave the Sheets option untouched. If Sheets is willing to sign a 1 year/ 10 million dollar deal + 1 year club option @ more money, then why not go for it?? Sure Hughes draws the short end of the stick, but its not like he won’t see a ML mound at some point. Somebody is going to miss a couple consecutive starts.
Just for the sake of comparison, Clay Buchholz is shut out the rotation with the Penny and Smoltz signings.
Okay. You’re Rex Ryan and Mike Tannenbaum.
You’re currently 16M over the cap; your internal free agents are:
Eric Barton (starter)
Bubba Franks
Mike Nugent (starter)
Cody Spencer
CJ Mosley
Ahmad Carroll
Tony Richardson (starter)
Jesse Chatman
Hank Poteat
Jay Feely
Ty Law (starter)
J.R. Reed
Your possible cap casualties to choose from (players who can save you a significant amount or are due roster bonuses) are:
Brett Favre (13M cap savings if cut)
Shaun Ellis (4.65M)
Brandon Moore (5.64M)
David Barrett (3.71M)
David Bowens (2.6M)
Chris Baker (2.1M)
Also, as Favre’s contract was traded for, no bonuses apply and he can be traded again with no cap hit whatsoever, FWIW. He has two years left on the deal at 13M and 14M.
The possible available free agents include:
Kurt Warner
Kyle Boller (BAL)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Jason Brown (BAL)
Julius Peppers
Albert Haynesworth
Ray Lewis (BAL)
Terrell Suggs (BAL)
Bart Scott (BAL)
Mike Peterson
Nnamdi Asomugha
Brian Dawkins
You have the 17th pick in the first round, the 20th pick in the second round (52 overall), the 12th pick of the third round (76 overall – you gave up your pick in the Favre trade but have the Saints pick from the Vilma trade) and both the 14th and 19th picks of the fourth round (110 and 115 – the Redskins pick from Pete Kendall, plus your own).
What do you do? WHAT DO YOU DO?
http://www.solarnavigator.net/.....ie_cop.jpg
As at Pats fan I just hope they keep Favre.
I’m seeing how much I can get for him from the Vikings.
2nd rounder, maybe?
then go and trade for Derek Anderson?
Umm… no.
exactly not that much QB option
this was a joke, right?
Realistically, moving Favre one way or the other makes too much sense given cap concerns, don’t know the best route for QB next year. I don’t see Warner as a Jet, and Kyle Boller isn’t the answer. Which leaves Derek Anderson?
I’d keep the starters that are FA, I’d let Law go, and go after Nnamdi Asomugha to lock down the corners with Revis.
Where the Jets are picking the depth will probably be at DE, or there’s a chance they could get Vonte Davis the corner from Illinois. SOme mock drafts have them taking a RB, but there are too many needs for a team with backs. SO I go DE or the CB if they dont get Asomugha.
2nd round pick depends, if there is a decent SS, go SS else o-line or a QB
Derek Anderson is flat out not the answer – he’s just not that good. I’d rather draft a QB with one of our 5 picks in the first four rounds and hold an open competition between Kellen Clemens, Brett Ratliff, Erik Ainge, and Rookie QB X than waste any money on Derek Anderson. I know it’s uncertain, but I’d rather focus on moving the defense from good to great and take my chances with finding a good young QB internally (or wait for a better QB market next offseason)
Asomugha is tempting, but he’ll probably get a fat contract from the Raiders; in any event, I’d imagine he’d be out of our price range.
I’d cut/trade Favre, cut Moore/Barrett/Bowens/Baker, let Barton (the only FA of monetary significance) walk, bring back Richardson and Chatman, and use the 9-12M in cap space left after those moves to sign one of the three Baltimore linebackers, preferably Terrell Suggs; use whatever’s left over to add some veteran cap casualties of other teams to plug a hole or two.
Then, in the draft, I’d target a safety or a cornerback in round one, QB in round 2, another DB in round three, and OL and DL/LB in the 4th round. Something like:
17- CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
52- QB Nate Davis, Ball State
76- S Patrick Chung, Oregon
110- DT/DE Alex Magee, Purdue
115- G Ramon Foster, Tennessee
Giving me a roster of:
QB- Clemens/Ratliff/Ainge/Nate Davis
RB- Jones/Washington/Chatman
FB- Richardson/Caulcrick
WR- Coles/Stuckey/Henry
WR- Cotchery/Smith/Clowney
TE- Keller
LT- Ferguson
LG- Faneca
C- Mangold
RG- ???? (Ramon Foster/Robert Turner/available vet like a Fred Weary)
RT- Woody
DE- Ellis/Devito
NT- Jenkins/Pouha/Kareem Brown
DE- Coleman/Alex Magee
OLB- Pace/Gholston
ILB- David Harris/
ILB- ???? (Murrell, Trusnik, Kassell, available vet, possibly move Thomas inside)
OLB- Suggs/Bryan Thomas
CB- Revis
CB- Vontae Davis/Lowery/Coleman/
S- Rhodes
S- Patrick Chung/Elam/Smith
The Yankee 2008 draft was not good by most accounts (Except Marshall & Lassiter of course). However Cashman handled himself well. I think back to the Cole incident, and he publically stated that he did not hold Scott Boras responsible for him not signing. I am sure that Boras appreciated that, and it probably helped land Teixeira. ps: Compare that to Boston’s complaining.
As for the farm system itself, it is not as pivotal for the Yankees or Sox to have a superior system, because they have the financial resources, and fan base that is not available in say Arlington, Texas. There are basic reasons why the Rangers have NEVER won the World Series. Top of the list, is star players do not want to play there (See Teixeira, Mark & Rodriguez, Alex as examples of this). The reason being is they will never be on the level of the Cowboys or the University of Texas, when it comes to fan interest down there (I bet anyone that the incoming freshman class at UT generates 1,000 times more interest in Texas, than the Rangers farm system). That has NEVER applied to baseball in New York, where BASEBALL RULES.
I don’t think a single team in the NFL would be willing to trade for Favre. Except the Vikes, but you know that’s not going to happen.
[...] touched on this a little bit last night, but Keith Law’s top 100 prospect list is officially posted over at the Worldwide Leader. [...]