Archive for Open Thread
July 4th Open Thread
Posted by: | CommentsWhile you’re waiting for the sky to light up, sit down and chill out here in our open thread. Talk about whatever you want, just be nice to each other.
Have a safe and happy Fourth of July everyone.
Open Thread: Hope everyone’s having a good time
Posted by: | CommentsThe three of us are out and about, carousing with pals and family, and we hope you are too. If you’re not, no worries. We’re throwing up an open thread for anything about, well, anything. Feel free to discuss the game, though we’ll have a recap later on, or what you happen to be drinking at the moment (Saranac Brown Ale).
On a serious note, we’ve gotten a few complaints about malware coming from the domain cdn1.eyewonder.com. This has apparently been flagged by Google for Google Chrome users. While I have my own suspicions on why, it’s something we’re going to take care of. Since we’re all out and about, I expect we’ll get to a fix tomorrow morning. Apologies to anyone who this has affected.
For now, everyone have a good, safe evening.
Open Thread: Walk-Rod
Posted by: | CommentsAt 29-17, the Yankees boast the best record in baseball since Alex Rodriguez returned to the lineup on May 8th. That has more to do with the pitching than anything else, as A-Rod is currently having his worst statistical season since 1997. The good news is that A-Rod’s .232 batting average is fueled by a ridiculously low .219 BABIP, and his IsoP is .252, right in line with his career mark. His prodigious power is still there, it’s just that fewer balls are dropping in for hits at the moment. That should correct itself in time.
But let’s not worry about batting average and hitting for power right now. Has anyone noticed how much A-Rod’s been walking this year? Even though he’s only played in 46 of 75 games, he’s third on the team with 39 walks (behind Nick Swisher & Mark Teixeira) and already 15th in AL in free passes. He’s walked in 20.1% of his plate appearances this year, far and away the best mark of a career in which he’s walked 11.3% of the time. All those walks allow A-Rod to have a fantastic .399 OBP despite his low batting average.
One of the byproducts of drawing walks and working deep counts is striking out. Nick Swisher and Adam Dunn are extreme examples, but we also see it with Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon. It’s just the way it is. Except that hasn’t been the case for A-Rod this year. He has more walks than strikeouts (28 K), something he’s never done, and frankly has never even been close to doing before. Over the his first five years in pinstripes, Alex struck out in about 22% of his plate appearance, but this year he’s cut it down to 18.1%.
A-Rod’s always been a guy that put a ton of pressure on himself, particularly in big spots, but this year he seems more content to just take what he’s given and pass the baton on to the next guy if the pitcher doesn’t give him something to hit. Maybe it’s just a statistical anomaly. I really have no idea, any theories?
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Anywho, here’s your open thread for tonight. The Mets are in Milwaukee, surely happy to not be facing the Yanks any more. Talk about whatever you like here, just be nice.
Oh, and make sure you vote in this week’s Fan Confidence Poll if you haven’t already.
Open Thread: A lazy Sunday
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s a quiet Sunday around here. The Yanks don’t play until 8 p.m., but there is a full slate of afternoon games. The Braves and the Red Sox square off on TBS, and that game started at 1:30. The FIFA Confederatiosn Cup final featuring an improbable match-up pitting the U.S. against Brazil starts at 2 p.m. on ESPN.
We’ll be back at 4 p.m. with some Yankee news. Anything goes. Just play nice
Oh, and chew on this one: Brett Gardner has five hits against the Mets this weekend. The Mets have four hits against the Yankees.
Open Thread: An RAB PSA
Posted by: | CommentsWe don’t like having to do this, but every so often it’s necessary. With the team struggling mightily and losing games in every way imaginable, it’s natural to feel pissed off and frustrated. Trust me, the three of us get just as worked up as you. However, one thing we absolutely will not allow at our site is personal attacks. Not now, not ever. It’s the second item on our Commenting Guidelines, and frankly we’re not asking the world of you guys. Please be respectful of your fellow fans and treat them how you would want to be treated.
Remember, people of all ages and backgrounds visit RAB. For all you know you could be cursing out a 13-yr old kid. We encourage discussion and informed debate here, but blatantly calling people names and putting them down is not acceptable. Attack ideas, not people. Ben, Joe and I have put more time and effort into this site than you can imagine, and we want to maintain what we’ve already created: the best community of Yankee fans on the interwebs.
So, one last time, please just be respectful of each other. It’s okay to disagree, but you can think of better ways to express yourself than cursing at someone or calling them names. Thank you for understanding.
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On another note, we’ve noticed an increasing number of off-topic comments. We’re fairly heavy-handed in eliminating those because we don’t want a situation similar to the one Matthew Cerrone faced on MetsBlog.com recently to crop up here. For more on that situation, read Cerrone’s entry from May.
To that end, we now have a “Submit a Tip” box in the left-hand sidebar. It’s right below the RAB Info box. You should use it to send us links to news you believe we would find post-worthy or musings or rants. All messages go to the three of us. So please don’t just drop in news about the Red Sox, the Mets or something completely unrelated to the topic. Send it to us or save it for the open threads.
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Finally, as always, you can keep up with RAB via other means as well. We have a Twitter feed that we tend to update sporadically throughout the day and during most games. Check that out if you’re already on Twitter.
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Feel free to use this as your open thread for the night. The Mets are playing the Cardinals, but I’ll be watching Texas taking on LSU in Game One of the College World Serie Finals over on ESPN. I guess you can watch House and Lie To Me, but dude, it’s the CWS! Anyway, anything goes here, just be cool.
Open Thread: Exploring The Best Yankee Pitches
Posted by: | CommentsFanGraphs is great, and it just keeps getting better. Just a few weeks ago they added a feature showing the Linear Weights Run Value (explained here) for each pitcher and their pitches. In short, it expresses the actual effectiveness of each pitch by comparing the change in expected number of runs scored after the pitch to before the pitch. It’s similar to how WPA is calculated for individual players, but each event is a pitch rather than a plate appearance.
Anyway, with the off day I figured it was a good time to take a look at the best (and worst) individual pitches on the Yankees staff. Each value is expressed in runs saved per 100 pitches; big numbers are good, small and negative numbers are bad.
Three Best Fastballs: Phil Coke (1.47), CC Sabathia (0.61), Al Aceves (0.16)
Three Worst Fastballs: Chien-Ming Wang (-4.37), AJ Burnett (-1.45), Phil Hughes (-1.16)
Three Best Sliders: AJ Burnett (21.62), Joba Chamberlain (3.47), CC Sabathia (1.42)
Three Worst Sliders: Phil Coke (-3.97), Jon Albaladejo (-3.70), Chien-Ming Wang (-0.84)
Three Best Curveballs: Al Aveces (3.45), AJ Burnett (1.79), Jon Albaladejo (1.77)
Three Worst Curveballs: CC Sabathia (-3.48), Phil Hughes (-0.45), Jose Veras & Andy Pettitte (both 0.64)
Three Best Changeups: CC Sabathia (3.07), Phil Coke (2.85), Al Aceves (2.71)
Three Worst Changeups: Jon Albaladejo (-70.05), Chien-Ming Wang (-8.21), Joba Chamberlain (-3.79)
I limited the data to guys with at least 20 IP to eliminate the Anthony Claggetts and Nick Swishers of the pitching gene pool. For comparison’s sake, the best and worst value for each kind of pitch in the league generally registers around 3.70 and -3.70, respectively. Some of the big numbers - Burnett’s slider, Albaladejo’s change - are sample size issues, meaning the data came from a sample of like, two pitches. If you want to see the data for the entire Yanks’ staff, click here.
As cool as this data is, it’s far more interesting to look at the team values. For example, the staff with the most effective fastball belongs to the Giants (0.58), and the worst belong to … drumroll please … the Yankees! Yep, with a pitch value of -0.90, the Yanks’ staff has thrown the least effective heaters in the game. They do rank middle of the pack when it comes to sliders (0.70, 14th overall) and changeups (0.49, 11th), and are near the top with curveballs (1.04, 7th), but why do the Yanks rank so poorly with the heater? I don’t know, but it’s kinda troubling when you have power arms like Sabathia, Burnett and Chamberlain on the staff.
Any theories? If so, drop ‘em here. If not, then talk about whatever you want and use this as an open thread. The Brewers face the Indians on ESPN, and Arkansas plays LSU in the College World Series on ESPN2. Other than that, there’s not much going on in the world of sports tonight. Anything goes here, just be nice.
Saturday Night Open Thread
Posted by: | CommentsAfter the way the Yankees mailed today’s game in, I wouldn’t hold it against you if you decide to go out and get hammered tonight. Hell, I wouldn’t hold that against you on any night. But if you’re not going out and decided to spend your evening with us, use this thread to talk about whatever you want. Virginia is taking on LSU in the College World Series on ESPN right now, so you can check that out if you don’t find anything else on the tube. Virginia starter Danny Hultzen is a legitimate candidate for the first overall pick in the 2010 2011 Draft.
Anything goes here, just be nice.
Open Thread: Athletes and the public
Posted by: | CommentsThis video might be old news to you, but just in case (some profane language, in case you don’t want the young’uns listening):
So a fan approaches Alex Rios and asks for his autograph. Rios, upset by his five-strikeout day, ignores the kid. Not kind, but it’s not like Rios is at the ballpark. He’s out with his wife/girlfriend after a charity event. If I’m Rios, I probably just want to get home and out of public.
That doesn’t excuse the way he acted. It would have made him a nice guy, for sure, to sign the kid’s autograph, but he’s not obligated. Then some other fan jumped on him for it, and Rios cracked. That’s where this episode went awry. Rios later apologized, saying that he “shouldn’t act like that, even if there’s sites like that or people following you, trying to make you say bad things.”
Clearly, Rios wasn’t right to act the way he did. But what about the fan who heckled him? Just like we can say that it’s understandable Rios got angry with the heckler but shouldn’t have acted the way he did, can’t we say that it’s understandable the heckler was frustrated with Rios’s performance and his treatment of the kid but also shouldn’t have acted that way?
It’s always been my view that public profile or not, these are fellow human beings and we should just leave them alone. I realize not everyone shares this. So where do you fall on the issues of athletes and the public?
In case you don’t care about this topic, it’s the open thread for the evening. Feel free to discuss this or the game — though we’ll have the recap later tonight.
Win something! As of right now, our Twitter feed is at 593 subscribers. For some reason, we want to get it to 600 before the end of the evening. So we’re going to give out a free copy of Jane Heller’s Confessions of a She-Fan, which Ben reviewed here, to number 600. In other words, the seventh person to follow us starting…now.
Open Thread: Who have been the most valuable Yankees?
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees’ season is one-third of the way over, and the team is currently 32-22, tied with the Red Sox for the best record in the American League. I figured now is as good a time as any to see which players have been the most valuable to the team. I know I’ve been shoving the wonderful wins above replacement (WAR) stat down your throats the past few days but, as I just said, it is wonderful. It factors in defense, position, the whole nine, and frankly it’s the best all-encompassing stat we have right now.
As a team, the Yanks’ position players have racked up 12.8 WAR, the second best total in baseball behind the Rays (14.1). The pitchers, however, come in at just 3.3 WAR, 23rd best in the game. The pitching staff has started to come around in the past few weeks, so when we check back in at the two-thirds point of the season, I expect them to rank higher.
Let’s start with the players who have given the Yanks the most value this season.
Top Five Pitchers
- CC Sabathia, 2.0 WAR
- Andy Pettitte, 0.8
- AJ Burnett, 0.7
- Joba Chamberlain, 0.6
- Mariano Rivera & Brian Bruney tied at 0.4
Top Five Position Players
- Derek Jeter, 2.1
- Mark Teixeira, 2.0
- Johnny Damon, 1.7
- Jorge Posada, 1.5
- Robinson Cano, 1.5
For comparison’s sake, the most valuable pitchers in baseball this year are Zack Greinke (4.4) & Roy Halladay (3.4), and the most valuable position players are Evan Longoria (3.2) & Raul Ibanez (3.1). It shouldn’t come as a shock that CC has been the Yanks’ most valuable pitcher. Despite their less than sterling ERAs, Pettitte & Burnett provide a ton of value based just on all the innings they soak up. Phil Hughes, Al Aceves and David Robertson were next up at 0.2 WAR each.
Derek Jeter’s recent hot streak pushed him past Tex as the team’s most valuable position player (and player overall), but his improved defense (+3.0 UZR/150) has also boosted his stock. Brett Gardner & Nick Swisher (tied at 1.3) are next up on the list, while Alex Rodriguez comes in at just 0.7 after missing a month of the season.
Here’s the guys who are bringing up the rear:
Bottom Five Pitchers
- Edwar Ramirez, -0.5
- Jon Albaladejo, -0.4
- Phil Coke, -0.3
- Damaso Marte, -0.3
- Jose Veras, -0.3
Bottom Five Position Players
- Angel Berroa, -0.5
- Cody Ransom, -0.3
- Xavier Nady, -0.1
- Kevin Cash, 0.0
- Frankie Cervelli, 0.0
The least valuable pitchers in the game this year have been Mike Lincoln of the Reds (-0.8) & the recently released Duaner Sanchez (-0.7). The least valuable hitters are Garrett Atkins & David Ortiz (tied at -1.2), while Brian Giles comes in at -1.1. The good news is that just two of the pitchers who make up the Yanks’ bottom five are still on the active roster, and one of those two has been relegated to mop-up duty. Chien-Ming Wang has managed to get back to replacement level, or just about at -0.1 WAR.
The bottom five position players are all spare parts, except for Nady who got hurt so early in the season that his sample isn’t very meaningful. Ramiro Pena also checked in at 0.0 WAR, so he and the two backstops have been exactly replacement level, which is what you’d expect out of your backup backup utility infielder and number three and four catchers.
If you want to see the full team list, the pitchers are here and the position players are here. The numbers will start to make more sense and be a bit more representative of true performance as the season marches on, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into this just yet. Anyway, use this as your open thread for the night. Talk about whatever you like, just be nice.
Open Thread: Is Jorge Posada a Hall of Famer?
Posted by: | CommentsYou’ve probably seen it by now, but Rob Neyer and Jonah Keri have been going back and forth about whether or not Yankees’ catcher Jorge Posada is a Hall of Famer. Neyer says nay, Keri says ay. Fortunately, we can some fancy statistics to compare Posada to other Hall of Fame catchers. I prefer using wins above replacement, or WAR. If you aren’t familiar with it, head over to FanGraphs’ glossary, scroll all the way down, and read the seven part series explaining how the stat works. If you’re not in the mood to do that, then just trust me that it measures offense and defense relative to position.
Since FanGraphs’ WAR data only goes back to 2002, we’ll get it from Sean Smith’s wonderful Baseball Projection site, which has WAR data going back to 1955. There are 12 catchers presently in the Hall of Fame, but just three (Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, and Carlton Fisk) played their entire career after 1955, so they’re going to be our basis of comparison by default. We can also add Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza to that mix because they’ll certainly be enshrined in Cooperstown at some point.
The graph below shows each players’ WAR by season, starting with the best. Year One is the best season of the player’s career, Year Two is the second best season, Year Three is the third best, and so on. Plotting the data this way allows us to see how the players compare at their best, at their worst, and everything in between. Enough talk, here’s the graph. Make sure to click for a larger view.
As you can see, Posada’s clearly a notch below the other catchers. His three best seasons (2000, 2003, 2007) aren’t as good as the three best seasons of the five other players, and in general he’s been less productive over the course of his career. This isn’t meant to discredit Posada at all. A catcher who’s worth just about three wins or better in 9 of his 13 big league seasons is an incredibly valuable player, but his career hasn’t met the standards set by other Hall of Fame backstops.
The beauty of WAR is that it allows us to compare the value of players who play different positions since it uses the appropriate adjustments. Thanks to this, we can see how Posada’s career stacks up to the newest Hall of Famer, Mr. Jim Rice.
Well well well, look at that. Rice has Posada beat at his peak, but Posada has the advantage at pretty much every point after that. Rice amassed 42.9 WAR in his 16-year career (0.3 more than Mike Cameron), good enough for 133rd all time. Posada was sitting at 41.6 WAR in his 13 seasons coming into the year, and despite his hamstring injury he’s zoomed past Rice by putting up another 1.5 WAR this year, leaving his current career total at 43.1. With another two seasons left on his contract, Posada will leave Rice in the dust in all likelihood. Now, WAR doesn’t factor in fearedness, but I suspect that wouldn’t change much since it’s a load of crap.
Personally, no, I don’t think Posada’s a Hall of Famer. Hell, I don’t think he’s any better than a borderline candidate to have his number 20 retired. Hall of Very Good? Absolutely. Hall of Fame? Nah.
What do you guys think, is Georgie a HOFer? Talk about that, or whatever else you want here. Just be nice.
