Predicting Joba’s innings

Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority and MLBTR fame surveyed eleven of the most popular baseball writers around (including RAB’s own Joe P.) about how many innings they expect Joba Chamberlain to pitch in 2009. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus shot for the moon and said 175, while Jon Heyman brought up the rear at 109. Joe said 142 IP, the same as Jerry Crasnick and three fewer than Peter Gammons, and just about nailed the average total of 143 IP. Joba’s career high is the 118.2 IP he threw for Nebraska back in 2005 (100.1 IP last year), and I’m going to go a little high and say he’ll throw 160 innings this year. If the Yanks get 140 innings (roughly 22 starts) out of Joba this year, they’ll be in damn fine shape. What do you guys think?