Apr
23

Open Thread: Fun with small sample sizes

By

April stats are always fun because the sample sizes are so small. It’s the only month of the season when the Pirates could rank first in team ERA (3.07) while ranking dead last in Kper9 (5.25), or when a guy with a .318 career OBP could lead the league in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.87), or when the Nationals could be only 7.5 games back of first. So, for your Thursday night entertainment, here’s some Yankee related statistical shenanigans:

  • CC Sabathia is on pace to throw more than 262 innings and 4,730 pitches this year. Sabathia three just over 3,900 pitches last season, including playoffs.
  • Robbie Cano is on pace for 237 hits, 25 behind Ichiro‘s single season record.
  • For Chien-Ming Wang to finish the year at his career 4.08 ERA  in 200 IP, he’d need to pitch to a 1.21 3.11 ERA the rest of the year.
  • Brian Bruney is on pace for 129 strikeouts. Brad Lidge struck out 157 batters in 2004. That’s insane.
  • Derek Jeter has swung at a career high 25.8% of the pitches he’s seen out of the zone, and a career low 68.8% of pitching in the zone.
  • Brett Gardner is on pace to reach base just 118 times, but steal 43 bases.
  • Hideki Matsui is on pace for 97 walks and 75 strikeouts.
  • Mariano Rivera is on track for an 86-0 K/BB ratio.
  • The Yankees have already used 15 pitchers this season, including Nick Swisher but not including Steven Jackson who is with the big league team but has yet to appear in a game. By April 23rd of last season, the Yanks had used … 15 pitchers. Now that’s useless info.
  • The Yanks projected pythag record right now is 70-92. Take out Wang, and it’s 91-69.

Anyway, use this as your open thread tonight. The Devils and Hurricanes play Game 5 tonight in Newark. The series is tied at two. Anything goes here, just be cool.

Categories : Open Thread

164 Comments»

  1. So after being told by my adviser today, the first day after returning from my aunt’s funeral, that I do not belong in grad school (tact, much?) I’ve been really angry.

    This, however, has helped.

    http://kevin.spleck.net/smack_.....ndex3.html

  2. Chris says:

    That game is pretty fun. The first few times I tried it I could not get the penguin very far, but the last time I got lucky and got 924.1.

  3. Joey H says:

    Mike is gonna kick ass in that Yankees/Red Sox debate tonight! lol. Call if you need a gritty pep talk. I’m stoked for this.

  4. pat says:

    Jesus, southpark already has a somali pirate episode.

  5. Matt says:

    Adam Dunn has 17 walks to 13 hits.

  6. A.Leo says:

    I hope Joba knocks off Youkalis goatee off tomarrow

  7. Lanny says:

    They probably should look to minimize Sabathia’s innings since they do have a lot of years and dollars attached to him. Throwing 120 stressful, erratic pitches in April is kind of crazy.

  8. KP says:

    So… any chance we can get a live chat for the games? When it gets to be so many posts I barely get a chance to read them all.

    I’m really, really lazy.

  9. RichYF aka sooooo tired of the "namedrop says hello" meme says:

    91+69=160

  10. Lanny says:

    I’ll be real happy if Joba’s first pitch to Youkliss or Ortiz is up and in or in their back.

  11. Lemme try this again:

    What’s the over/under on how many innings before Joba throws at Youk’s head?

  12. Mike Pop says:

    Heh, so Wang’s ERA this year is fucked.

    Whatever, hopefully he can get it back together to get his ERA to a 4.50 or something. Kills his trade value though…..

    • Joey H says:

      I don’t care what his numbers are to be quite frank. If he can get back to being the real CMW and his numbers are high at the end of the year we will all know they are inflated due to a poor start. It’s not like he was going for a career 2.00 ERA. Catch my drift?

      • Mike Pop says:

        I’m not picking up what you’re putting down, explain again?

        • Joey H says:

          You said his ERA this year was fucked. But in all reality who cares if he can just come back and be the real CMW we all know and have enjoyed watching. We know that he had a terrible start and if his ERA suffers from that but he has a strong come back then it’s all good in my mind. ERA is just a number. I want to see him go out there, pick up the ball every 5th day and throw hard sinkers en route to Yankee wins. Better?

        • Matt says:

          He’s saying that he doesn’t care if he gets his ERA down to 4.08 this year, and would be fine with CMW pitching as his normal self (rather than on-fire) for the rest of the season and even if he has a funky ERA at the end of the year, it’s just because of the awful start.

      • Mike Pop says:

        Well, there was talk about dealing him the year before he becomes a FA. If it can bring in a solid outfielder, and Brackman is ready.

        Why not?

        But no, I’m not looking to trade him now, if that is what you think.

        • Brackman is probably YEARS away. Lets wait till he gets to AA before we put him in the rotation and trade Wang.

          I know what you’re saying, they could have power arms to replace him at some point. But its just very premature. So much can happen between now and then.

          • Matt says:

            Lets wait till he gets to AA before we put him in the rotation and trade Wang.

            Nope. Let’s pull a Porcello on him.

          • pat says:

            Brackman is years away from MLB and wang is years away from FA. Sounds like a legit course of action.

          • whozat says:

            I don’t think anyone was saying that Brackman was the guy who’d let us trade Wang.

            But, frankly…if Wang could bring us a youngish position player we need, and Hughes establishes himself this year…why not explore moving Wang to put Hughes in the rotation, and bring Andy/some other vet back to be the 5th starter?

    • Evan says:

      Plus he is pretty much never going to the NL, the one time the guy ran the bases he twisted his ankle and was out for 4 months.

      • pat says:

        Except he didn’t twist his ankle, it wasn’t his first time running the bases and would have no effect on his trade value.
        Other than that your post is 100% correct.

  13. thebusiness says:

    Your numbers for Wang are WAY WAY off.

    If he pitched to about a 1.2 ERA for the rest of the year, his season ERA would be about 2.3.

    If he pitched to about a 2.8 ERA for the rest of the year, his season ERA will be about 3.7

    If he pitches to about a 3.1 ERA for the rest of the year, his season ERA will be just under 4.

  14. Andrew says:

    I don’t think your Wang stat is accurate. On PTI the other day, I believe they said that for Wang to finish with a 4.20 (or around there) he’d need to pitch to a 3.10 for the rest of the year.

  15. Mike Pop says:

    So Tony G to the Falcons. Kind of weird but a good pickup in my opinion.

  16. Andrew says:

    ^^ Ok. Someone beat me to it. Don’t know how in the hell you came up with those stats.

  17. thebusiness says:

    This is assuming he pitches 200 IP + the 6IP he already pitched.

    Mine is just a rough estimate but I have no idea where you got your numbers from but they are wrong.

  18. Tom Zig says:

    Which is more likely:

    One of the Yankee outfielders making the all star game

    or

    All 4 Yankee infielders making the all star game.

  19. thebusiness says:

    Here’s the simple math.

    Over 206 IP, 91 runs is an era of 3.98.

    Wang has given up 23 runs. 91-23=68.

    Over 200 IP, 68 runs is an era of 3.06

    If he gives up 68 runs over the next 200 IP, he will have an ERA of of 3.98 on the season.

    Rinse and repeat for the other ERAs.

  20. Dustin Pedroia’s brother pleaded guilty and is now a convicted sex offender…

    …I nearly forgot to write ‘brother’ there. That would have been interesting.

  21. Jamal G. says:

    Joba’s ‘hey, look, you fucking idiots, I can dominate hitters over seven innings just like I can in one inning out of the bullpen’ start at Fenway Park is showing on YES right now.

  22. andrew says:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=4093702

    yankees and mets to discuss ticket prices after the season

  23. Joey H says:

    Alright time to go work on my show. Nice commenting with you all. Hope to see you there. Go Mike!

  24. Hmmm says:

    http://www.firstgiving.com/keys100

    It’s a really good cause. My friend, a Recon Marine, was in Iraq and nearly had his leg blown off by an IED. Medical personnel didn’t know if he would keep his leg, or walk on it again. Through hard work, perseverance, and dedicaion, nearly 3 years after the day he was hit, he will be running a 100 mile race in Florida to raise money for the Special Operations Warrior foundation, which helps families of fallen and injured Special Forces Marines. Any donation is GREAT, and if you cannot donate, please send this link to anyone you know!Thanks!!

  25. Evan says:

    I’m psyched for the series this weekend. Just wanted to get that out. Go Yanks!

  26. Chris V. says:

    Zach McAllister has a 2 hitter through 7 for Trenton tonight. Seems like hes adapting to AA just fine.

  27. Jamal G. says:

    God, seeing Joba strike out Kevin Youkilis after he knocked his ass down makes me…

    JIZZ IN MY PANTS!

  28. A.D. says:

    WDL made his return today

  29. I’m getting Longoria and Zaun for Ianetta, Valverde and Verlander on the Fantasy League I play, would you guys pull the trigger? Thoughts?

    • Mike Pop says:

      No question. Whoever sent it to you is not very smart.

      • andrew says:

        If both Ianetta and Verlander turn it around, you still probably get the better end of the deal. Enjoy Longoria.

    • A.D. says:

      Depends on the rest of your team, you’re giving up 3 solid or better players for one great player

      • I think I’m fine but not great at C as I have Laird and Shoppach and since Verlander isn’t looking great I can live without him. I probably can get a good closer or a above average SP from someone in need of outfield help as I have Bay, Guerrero, McLouth, Hart, Endy Chavez and Francouer (and he is having a good start).

  30. pat says:

    Oh Salma, you’re just so….. wonderful

  31. Drew says:

    This new guy on BBTN from baseball prospectus doesn’t belong on TV. Really, who wears a one button blazer?

  32. pat says:

    This new show Southland is pretty sweet.

  33. manimal says:

    Forgot to mention yesterday, I don’t know if you guys saw on YES but after Johnny Damon dropped the ball in right field, the next fly ball to him was caught and the stadium exploded into cheers and Johnny bowed. It was pretty funny.

  34. Charlie says:

    Projected HR’s at Yankee Stadium- 342

  35. Understood Axl says:

    You see!! This is all I’m trying to say right here…look at that awful pythag record…every single game has been a “i’m going to rip my hair out i can’t stand this” game. We’ve won like 2 games by a lot..the rest were nail biters…and we have yet to barely lose a game…every game we’ve lost, it seems, we get absolutely massacred…

    It’s frustrating. Everybody on our team is injured, starts off slow, or is overworked. Yet, yes, we have a winning record…but it still didn’t look pretty…

    • Understood Axl says:

      Yeah Yeah take Wang out and it’s a different story…blah blah…91 wins in the AL East still doesn’t get us to the playoffs…we played like absolute filth last year and had more than 91 wins…

      • handtius says:

        no we didn’t…we finished 89 wins. go on get your facts straightened out. plus, if we have 3 dominating teams in the east, 91 might do it, more like 94 though, i’d say.

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