Apr
23
Open Thread: Fun with small sample sizes
ByApril stats are always fun because the sample sizes are so small. It’s the only month of the season when the Pirates could rank first in team ERA (3.07) while ranking dead last in Kper9 (5.25), or when a guy with a .318 career OBP could lead the league in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.87), or when the Nationals could be only 7.5 games back of first. So, for your Thursday night entertainment, here’s some Yankee related statistical shenanigans:
- CC Sabathia is on pace to throw more than 262 innings and 4,730 pitches this year. Sabathia three just over 3,900 pitches last season, including playoffs.
- Robbie Cano is on pace for 237 hits, 25 behind Ichiro’s single season record.
- For Chien-Ming Wang to finish the year at his career 4.08 ERA in 200 IP, he’d need to pitch to a 1.21 3.11 ERA the rest of the year.
- Brian Bruney is on pace for 129 strikeouts. Brad Lidge struck out 157 batters in 2004. That’s insane.
- Derek Jeter has swung at a career high 25.8% of the pitches he’s seen out of the zone, and a career low 68.8% of pitching in the zone.
- Brett Gardner is on pace to reach base just 118 times, but steal 43 bases.
- Hideki Matsui is on pace for 97 walks and 75 strikeouts.
- Mariano Rivera is on track for an 86-0 K/BB ratio.
- The Yankees have already used 15 pitchers this season, including Nick Swisher but not including Steven Jackson who is with the big league team but has yet to appear in a game. By April 23rd of last season, the Yanks had used … 15 pitchers. Now that’s useless info.
- The Yanks projected pythag record right now is 70-92. Take out Wang, and it’s 91-69.
Anyway, use this as your open thread tonight. The Devils and Hurricanes play Game 5 tonight in Newark. The series is tied at two. Anything goes here, just be cool.
So after being told by my adviser today, the first day after returning from my aunt’s funeral, that I do not belong in grad school (tact, much?) I’ve been really angry.
This, however, has helped.
http://kevin.spleck.net/smack_.....ndex3.html
Second shot, 500.7.
Booya, 710.4.
First shot, 545.1.
501.9, after missing on the first 7 swings. I’m the cody ransom of penguin bashing.
Pfft, it took me like 10 tries to get it…and then i hit it 819 feet.
I guess I’m the Nick Swisher of penguin bashing!
Heh, only if you worked a full count first.
missed the first few times, got 671.7
I’ll take that as a stand up double and be happy
Almost as much fun as kitten cannon
http://www.addictinggames.com/kittencannon.html
It took me 5ish tries to figure out the timing.
793.1
Why would your adviser even say that?
In the fall I had asked her if I should continue on to a PhD program.
I had already come to the conclusion that academia is so not my thing, but what really bothers me is the timing. I mean, I just missed a fucking week of school because my aunt died suddenly (and unexpectedly).
It’s like, hello, tact?
Maybe you need to find a new adviser. Remember. It is your money at work there. You are paying for it.
Alas, if I’d do that I’d have to repeat an entire year of work. I don’t have the money or the energy to do that.
It’s true that many academics have poor social skills…however, as someone who did a PhD program and really wasn’t cut out for it…it’s far, FAR better to know now than four years in.
If there’s one thing I learned in college, it’s that most academics lack tact. Ugh on your adviser.
761.4 for me
713.4, first try.
first shot, I had no idea what to do, and I just clicked randomly 2 times–over 2,000 feet. I haven’t gotten over 200 since.
I hit a screaming liner that went maybe 150, and then hit six landmines in a row. Good times.
910..boo yah
865.4, first try. So many landmines, so much blood.
That game is pretty fun. The first few times I tried it I could not get the penguin very far, but the last time I got lucky and got 924.1.
Supposed to be posted above.
I seem to be the Shelley Duncan of penguin smacking, I either swing and miss or hit it very far.
1163
I just hit that penguin 1014.6 feet. Poor guy.
Kitten Cannon is 10000 times better
Mike is gonna kick ass in that Yankees/Red Sox debate tonight! lol. Call if you need a gritty pep talk. I’m stoked for this.
Jesus, southpark already has a somali pirate episode.
Those pirates messed with the wrong people. We’ll ‘Eff them up. lol
What’s the over/under on how many innings before Joba throws at Youk’s head?
ERGH it’s not supposed to be there
Three shots, three kills, 400 yards in 10 foot seas. Fu*king badass.
Were you under the impression it takes months and months of hard work and preparation to put together a South Park episode?
Well not months, but more than a week.
Adam Dunn has 17 walks to 13 hits.
How many Strikeouts?
11.
I hope Joba knocks off Youkalis goatee off tomarrow
Maybe that will get me psyched up for the series. That and the summer-like weather that’s supposed to hit the area tomorrow.
Right now, not so much….
It’s that friggin travesty of a new stadium. I’ve been in a funk ever since going opening day….
-Scott
I don’t understand how you cannot feel excited about the team/the season. The Yankees are 9-6 with three awful starts and two bad bullpen days, all while missing their best offensive player. The season can only go up from here.
Agreed Matt. I still hate you.
If you saw the lousy stadium…and my seats….and realize it’s a place I’m supposed to bond with my kids in….you’d get it…
-Scott
Why is it lousy?
Don’t bother. There’s always one of them in every crowd.
I bet his answer is “no tradition” or something along those lines.
I can already tell this conversation will be a useless endeavor. Forget I said anything. But I will say this: at least you’re lucky enough to have gone to a game. I’m probably only going to get to go to one game this year.
I went to Opening Day with my dad and brother, we were able to bond quite easily… So, I still don’t get it.
They probably should look to minimize Sabathia’s innings since they do have a lot of years and dollars attached to him. Throwing 120 stressful, erratic pitches in April is kind of crazy.
But Girardi is a great manager!!!!!!!!!
So… any chance we can get a live chat for the games? When it gets to be so many posts I barely get a chance to read them all.
I’m really, really lazy.
91+69=160
Yeah, when the CHONE and PECOTA systems do their preseason projections, they usually have win totals that don’t add up to 162 either. Weird.
How would you feel if you were a super smart computer programmer, you come up with this amazing system that projects a players numbers with a margin of error of 1% or less, and the fuckin thing doesn’t even get the win total to add up to 162?
I’ll be real happy if Joba’s first pitch to Youkliss or Ortiz is up and in or in their back.
Why? Ortiz seems to be an easy out at this point in his career? No Manny behind him! lol. Either that or no more ‘roids.
I’ll be real happy if Youkilis is WAITING for Joba to throw at him all night, and goes 0-4.
Mission accomplished.
Lemme try this again:
What’s the over/under on how many innings before Joba throws at Youk’s head?
Joba will do something even better. He’ll polish off half a bottle of Jack Daniels and offer Youk a ride home.
Heh, so Wang’s ERA this year is fucked.
Whatever, hopefully he can get it back together to get his ERA to a 4.50 or something. Kills his trade value though…..
I don’t care what his numbers are to be quite frank. If he can get back to being the real CMW and his numbers are high at the end of the year we will all know they are inflated due to a poor start. It’s not like he was going for a career 2.00 ERA. Catch my drift?
I’m not picking up what you’re putting down, explain again?
You said his ERA this year was fucked. But in all reality who cares if he can just come back and be the real CMW we all know and have enjoyed watching. We know that he had a terrible start and if his ERA suffers from that but he has a strong come back then it’s all good in my mind. ERA is just a number. I want to see him go out there, pick up the ball every 5th day and throw hard sinkers en route to Yankee wins. Better?
Heh. Didn’t catch I was joking huh. I agree with you but you don’t want his ERA to be Barry Zito-esque.
Now please explain just one more time?
Well yeah no kidding. I doubt he’ll loose that much on his fastball(10mph) to truly be Zito-Esque.
He’s saying that he doesn’t care if he gets his ERA down to 4.08 this year, and would be fine with CMW pitching as his normal self (rather than on-fire) for the rest of the season and even if he has a funky ERA at the end of the year, it’s just because of the awful start.
Trade value?
Really?
Well, there was talk about dealing him the year before he becomes a FA. If it can bring in a solid outfielder, and Brackman is ready.
Why not?
But no, I’m not looking to trade him now, if that is what you think.
Brackman is probably YEARS away. Lets wait till he gets to AA before we put him in the rotation and trade Wang.
I know what you’re saying, they could have power arms to replace him at some point. But its just very premature. So much can happen between now and then.
Lets wait till he gets to AA before we put him in the rotation and trade Wang.
Nope. Let’s pull a Porcello on him.
Brackman is years away from MLB and wang is years away from FA. Sounds like a legit course of action.
Yea man, that’s a what I thought!
I don’t think anyone was saying that Brackman was the guy who’d let us trade Wang.
But, frankly…if Wang could bring us a youngish position player we need, and Hughes establishes himself this year…why not explore moving Wang to put Hughes in the rotation, and bring Andy/some other vet back to be the 5th starter?
Plus he is pretty much never going to the NL, the one time the guy ran the bases he twisted his ankle and was out for 4 months.
Except he didn’t twist his ankle, it wasn’t his first time running the bases and would have no effect on his trade value.
Other than that your post is 100% correct.
Your numbers for Wang are WAY WAY off.
If he pitched to about a 1.2 ERA for the rest of the year, his season ERA would be about 2.3.
If he pitched to about a 2.8 ERA for the rest of the year, his season ERA will be about 3.7
If he pitches to about a 3.1 ERA for the rest of the year, his season ERA will be just under 4.
Wow, you’re right. My bad. WTF did I do wrong?
Lol, you had me so confused. He had to go straight Milwaukee CC-esque for the rest of the year.
I don’t think your Wang stat is accurate. On PTI the other day, I believe they said that for Wang to finish with a 4.20 (or around there) he’d need to pitch to a 3.10 for the rest of the year.
So Tony G to the Falcons. Kind of weird but a good pickup in my opinion.
Great pickup in my opinion for what they gave up. Matt Ryan will only be better next year. Vick who?
^^ Ok. Someone beat me to it. Don’t know how in the hell you came up with those stats.
This is assuming he pitches 200 IP + the 6IP he already pitched.
Mine is just a rough estimate but I have no idea where you got your numbers from but they are wrong.
Which is more likely:
One of the Yankee outfielders making the all star game
or
All 4 Yankee infielders making the all star game.
Obviously the Infielders. I wouldn’t put it past Swisher if he continues to hit well. Or actually now, starts hitting again.
Well, will everyone hate A-Rod after roids?
Nah. Only Sox/Mets fans. He is one of the few who had balls and came out and was forthright about it.
And people still bitched and complained about what he did and how it wasn’t enough.
If Papí came out and admitted it he’d get a frackin’ ticker tape parade!
Well they can go shove it up their ass as far as I am concerned. Not only should that not have been made public but there are 102 or whatever names still out there. I’m willing to bet that between the Sox and the Mets there are at least 8 names past or present on that list.
I should say hate him more.
I’d say the OF. Swish won’t hit like he’s hitting, but I think he’ll do well enough to at least garner a reserve spot. Plus, he’s a fan favorite now so…
Here’s the simple math.
Over 206 IP, 91 runs is an era of 3.98.
Wang has given up 23 runs. 91-23=68.
Over 200 IP, 68 runs is an era of 3.06
If he gives up 68 runs over the next 200 IP, he will have an ERA of of 3.98 on the season.
Rinse and repeat for the other ERAs.
Dustin Pedroia’s brother pleaded guilty and is now a convicted sex offender…
…I nearly forgot to write ‘brother’ there. That would have been interesting.
Link?
Twitter. RAB, actually.
http://www.twitter.com/rab
Try http://www.twitter.com/riveraveblues
As much as we’d like to own RAB everything on the net, three-letter online acquisitions are way too expensive these days.
Ack, sorry, it’s just, you know, the icon says RAB!
Two things I can’t stand in life. Animal abusers and Pedos.
And Red Sox fans.
So three! Three things I can’t stand in life.
…….John Kruk, Dan Plesac, Joe Magrane, Harold Reynolds, Steven A, and Carl Pavano.
8!
Heh. 9!
I added Reynolds in last minute.
Red Sox fans I can handle.
Mets fans, however…
I feel the exact same way. At least Sox fans root for their own team rather than against someone else’s.
wha. . . .wha . . . .WHAT?!?!?!?!?!
After 86 years of futility, it took less than 5 minutes for a chant of “YANKEES SUCK” to go up at Fenway. True story.
That’s true, but at the same time, at least the Yankees rivalry w/the Sox is legit.
Meh. I root hard against the Mets.
I really have nothing against the Mets, except for their inability to form an identity of their own.
Exactly. It’s more or less so I have something to rub in the fans face. I hate their front office. They think is cool to leave a team with one huge hole every season.
Expanded thoughts:
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-310882
Pfft. Long time Yankee fans ignore the Mets. They’re not worth getting excited over.
Plus, the dismissive attitude drives them twice as nuts, which is mildly amusing.
Fair enough.
In prison the roles are reversed.
The Dogs kick the Pedophiles?
Joba’s ‘hey, look, you fucking idiots, I can dominate hitters over seven innings just like I can in one inning out of the bullpen’ start at Fenway Park is showing on YES right now.
I remember listening to that start on the radio after a dramatic softball win. It was quite epic.
Was the Wang complete game in that series as well?
Wasn’t that the game they announced the Nady/Marte deal?
Yep. I remember exactly where I was when I heard it: parallel to Newark Airport on the Jersey Turnpike.
So funny I was gonna say exactly where I was too, but decided against it last second.But hey why not i was at Keats a kareoke bar in the city Joba was dominating and my friend had just proposed to his girlfriend on stage.
That’s pretty cool.
Yes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
Watch the whole thing.
Kids these days are such pussies.
Gay marriage? Right or wrong?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
I have to admit, he convinced me. Of what I have no idea.
OMG, that is so awful. That kid needs therapy. I feel really, really badly for that kid. I mean, that’s…he’s just a couple of days from suicide, isn’t he? Or monastery school…but seriously…is he serious?
That poor little bastard has some issues. haha
I WILL NOT STAND FOR IT!
IMBECILE!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=4093702
yankees and mets to discuss ticket prices after the season
Alright time to go work on my show. Nice commenting with you all. Hope to see you there. Go Mike!
LINK?
Mike will do a post on it shortly.
Heh. Look at you, trying to sound part of the RAB team and all.
Cool it, hotshot
That is an outtake from what movie?
Lol no. it’s up now.
http://www.firstgiving.com/keys100
It’s a really good cause. My friend, a Recon Marine, was in Iraq and nearly had his leg blown off by an IED. Medical personnel didn’t know if he would keep his leg, or walk on it again. Through hard work, perseverance, and dedicaion, nearly 3 years after the day he was hit, he will be running a 100 mile race in Florida to raise money for the Special Operations Warrior foundation, which helps families of fallen and injured Special Forces Marines. Any donation is GREAT, and if you cannot donate, please send this link to anyone you know!Thanks!!
I’m psyched for the series this weekend. Just wanted to get that out. Go Yanks!
Glad somebody is. I’m just not feeling it.
I don’t know, seeing that Joba start from last year is getting me excited about tomorrow night.
Zach McAllister has a 2 hitter through 7 for Trenton tonight. Seems like hes adapting to AA just fine.
Zach McAllister=Chien Ming Wang part 2.
Yeh hopefully. hes definitely underrated as a prospect.
How? He was rated as a consensus top-ten prospect amongst Yankees lists.
But the Yankees have the worst farm system in baseball, so being on their top 10 list is meaningless. It’s not like they have Theo you know.
How he pitches has a dramatic effect on the Illinois economy?
The Chicago Mercantile exchange is up and down on every start.
But Zmac is gritty and gutty because he’s white.
God, seeing Joba strike out Kevin Youkilis after he knocked his ass down makes me…
JIZZ IN MY PANTS!
That game was definitely on a boat.
WDL made his return today
I’m getting Longoria and Zaun for Ianetta, Valverde and Verlander on the Fantasy League I play, would you guys pull the trigger? Thoughts?
No question. Whoever sent it to you is not very smart.
If both Ianetta and Verlander turn it around, you still probably get the better end of the deal. Enjoy Longoria.
Depends on the rest of your team, you’re giving up 3 solid or better players for one great player
I think I’m fine but not great at C as I have Laird and Shoppach and since Verlander isn’t looking great I can live without him. I probably can get a good closer or a above average SP from someone in need of outfield help as I have Bay, Guerrero, McLouth, Hart, Endy Chavez and Francouer (and he is having a good start).
Oh Salma, you’re just so….. wonderful
This new guy on BBTN from baseball prospectus doesn’t belong on TV. Really, who wears a one button blazer?
Respect Nate Silver.
But yeah, he had no idea what to do with his hands.
This new show Southland is pretty sweet.
Forgot to mention yesterday, I don’t know if you guys saw on YES but after Johnny Damon dropped the ball in right field, the next fly ball to him was caught and the stadium exploded into cheers and Johnny bowed. It was pretty funny.
Projected HR’s at Yankee Stadium- 342
You see!! This is all I’m trying to say right here…look at that awful pythag record…every single game has been a “i’m going to rip my hair out i can’t stand this” game. We’ve won like 2 games by a lot..the rest were nail biters…and we have yet to barely lose a game…every game we’ve lost, it seems, we get absolutely massacred…
It’s frustrating. Everybody on our team is injured, starts off slow, or is overworked. Yet, yes, we have a winning record…but it still didn’t look pretty…
Yeah Yeah take Wang out and it’s a different story…blah blah…91 wins in the AL East still doesn’t get us to the playoffs…we played like absolute filth last year and had more than 91 wins…
no we didn’t…we finished 89 wins. go on get your facts straightened out. plus, if we have 3 dominating teams in the east, 91 might do it, more like 94 though, i’d say.