KLaw’s Top 100 Draft Prospects

A tale of two Swishers
Damon reiterates desire to stay in the Bronx

RAB fave Keith Law posted his list of the top 100 prospects for the upcoming draft over at ESPN yesterday, but you might have missed it because it was immediately buried behind a bunch of other stuff. Unfortunately, it’s subscriber only. Now that Dustin Ackley has shown he can handle the outfield post-Tommy John surgery, he’s climbed up draft boards and checks in at number two on KLaw’s list, behind only Stephen Strasburg. This year’s crop is very pitching heavy, and only four high school shortstops (a precious demographic) made the top 100. From the looks of it, it seems like Jiovanni Mier and Matt Davidson will be gone before the Yanks pick at number 29.

A tale of two Swishers
Damon reiterates desire to stay in the Bronx
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

    mike, im not an insider… is there anyone that surprises u in the 20-30 range?

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    From the looks of it, it seems like Jiovanni Mier and Matt Davidson will be gone before the Yanks pick at number 29.

    If they both do fall, which of the two do you think the Blue Sox are more likely to take right in front of us, annoying us to no end?

    I mean, would you rather see the Sox take Davidson so Mier falls to us, or vice versa? What’s the best case scenario between the two?

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

      from what ive read up on both… id rather have davidson… but thats mainly cuz it seems his upside is higher

      • Doug

        btw, davidon is 15 and mier is 19

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      I bet they take SJ44’s nephew.

      • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        Who’s that?

        • Andy In Sunny Daytona

          Tony Sanchez from Boston College, I think.

          • Reggie C.

            Catching is a need for the Sox. Good candidate to go before the Yanks select.

            • whozat

              A) Is this Sanchez fellow a top-30 prospect?
              B) Does it seem likely he’ll be the best on the board when the Sox pick? Because they’re smart enough not to draft for big-league need, because that makes no sense.

              • Andy In Sunny Daytona

                He’s #35. It wouldn’t be an overdraft on their part.

                • whozat

                  Fair enough; I could see that happening, though it seems more likely that some signability/injury case will have fallen and they’ll take him.

    • whozat

      Doesn’t matter. If they don’t draft a polished college all-star shortstop to replace Jeter in 2011, Cashman needs to tender his resignation.

      • El Generalissimo

        Yes because those always fall to the 29th pick!

        • whozat

          Check that sarcasmometer, buddy.

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      Then again, the Blue Sox may just pass on all draft picks since their system is already loaded with all top talent.

      • whozat

        Yeah, I mean…when your worst players are sure-fire Perennial All-Stars like Tacoby and your best are generational pitching talents like The Bard…

    • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      “If they both do fall, which of the two do you think the Blue Sox are more likely to take right in front of us, annoying us to no end?”

      Davidson looks much more like a Red Sox prospect, does he not?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        I’m picking up what you’re putting down…

        • Mattingly’s Love Child

          He’s an ugly white dude?

          Oh wait, was that out loud?

          • thurdonpaul

            lol, yes it was

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

    i just hope they dont draft jordan henry… he looks like gardner 2.0 to me

    • Joe R

      Thats a good thing?

      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

        no it isnt a good thing… with a 1st round pick i dont want a fringe 4th OFer

        • Doug

          he’s not even in the top 100

  • Andy In Sunny Daytona

    I just hope the Yankees dont pick Xavier Henry.

  • JohnC

    Would love to see the Yanks get Madison Younginer or James Paxton.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Seems like Paxton is a lock for the top 10. He’s emerged as the consensus #1 LHP in the class.

      Younginer is in play, though.

      • Doug

        paxson is 3, younginer is 40

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

      im not familiar with this younginer guy… whats his story?

      • Joey

        Paraphrasing from KLaw or Scouts Inc., whoever did the write up.

        Good fastball, sits 93-95, touches 97, okay movement. Best breaking pitch is a sharp downward curve which lacks consistency but is a plus pitch “when it’s on” and he has a straight change. Needs work on mechanics, repetition of delivery. Great arm speed

        Majority of MLB teams see him in BP as a closer, FB repeatedly hits 97 from there (oh boy… no comment)

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Majority of MLB teams see him in BP as a closer, FB repeatedly hits 97 from there (oh boy… no comment)

          OH BOY JABBA TO THE BULLPENZ!!!!!!!

  • Reggie C.

    How loaded must the Tarheels OF depth be if Ackley has been playing 1B all this time, but can actually handle CF smoothly to merit a #2 ranking…

    Anyways, i don’t have access to the list, but i’m intrigued to see where Grant Green ends up. His regular season stats have disappointed everybody. Green still likely goes at least 10 spots before the Yanks pick though.

    As of April 22nd, Kentrail Davis has a line of .301/.434/.536. Not exactly impressive of somebody with his skills. He could fall to the Yanks’ consideration.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      He has Green at #11. Green, Ackley, Donovan Tate and Matt Davidson are the only non-pitchers in KLaw’s top 15.

    • rbizzler

      According to the ESPN draft blog, Ackley has been manning 1b because he recently had TJS. They have started to play him in the OF to showcase his versatlilty for the scouts and because he is a pretty solid athlete. There was some concern that he wouldn’t be able to make the throws from CF, but his recent performance has quieted those fears somewhat.

      And yes, the ‘Heels do seem stacked…

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    More thoughts/questions:

    -If CF Mike Trout falls to us, do you think his bat can play in the corners? It would be nice to have CF-level defense across the outfield someday…

    -Mychal Givens seems to be falling precipitously, he was a top-ten pick at one point. Is he just too raw to be expected to pan out? (I assume everyone’s looking at him at RHP and not SS…)

    -If 3B Bobby Borchering, LHP Rex Brothers, RF Jared Mitchell, and RHP/SS Givens are all on the board for us at 29, what’s your order of preference?

    -Doesn’t 46 seem low for Andy Oliver?

    -Should we not draft Levon Washington, just because he’s from “Buchholz”, Florida?

    Oh, and I totally want to draft CF Everett Williams with our second pick, because he reminds me of a lefty Austin Jackson. Double up, baby!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nj5wDVX_8IM&feature=related

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      -Do they take Scott Bittle again?

      • rbizzler

        Have we found out if he has signed the ‘redraft’ card for the Yanks yet?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          I believe we do not have consent to redraft him.

          Can’t remember if he said no or if we never asked, but I’m pretty sure one way or another consent was not established.

          • rbizzler

            Well, that answers that. Although I was intrigued by the pitch he throws that his teammates refer to as ‘the thing.” Sounds pretty nasty to me.

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

      trout seems like he might be a reach in the 1st round, but i admittedly have only read 1 scouting report on him

      im not enamored with givens

      i LOVE borchering and mitchell, lukewarm on brothers… id be ecstatic if borchering fell

      the only thing that concerns me about oliver is that he doesnt have a curveball, which we all know the yankees love… seems like something a jr in college should at least be able to SHOW at some point during games, even if it sucks

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        trout seems like he might be a reach in the 1st round, but i admittedly have only read 1 scouting report on him

        Well, the linked KLaw list has Trout at #26, and the detailed report says he’s “a first-round talent and isn’t likely to get out of the top 20 picks”. That’s why I threw him in the consideration at #29.

        So, your preference at #29 is
        1) Borchering
        2) Mitchell
        3) Brothers
        4) Givens
        5) Trout
        6) Oliver

        Is that right?

        • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

          i stand corrected on trout, i knew little about him when i made that post

          1. borchering
          2. mitchell
          3. brothers
          4. trout
          5. oliver
          6. givens

          before i would have had trout no. 6 and oliver and givens at 4 and 5, but i didnt know much about him and i trust u and k-law that hes a legit 1st round player

          borchering and mitchell definitely are the most exciting to me out of that group though… what would your list be?

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Eh, probably the same as yours. I’m not as down on Givens as you are, though, I’d probably flip-flop him and Oliver.

      • whozat

        But the Yanks are big on teaching the curve, so I’m not sure they’re too concerned if a guy doesn’t have one already…Like, a good curve is a plus, but no curve is kinda better than a crappy one as there are no bad habits to unlearn.

        • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

          no i definitely agree with u… it just seems almost suspicious for a college pitcher not to have one… like maybe its a health risk for his arm or something… i dont know, just seems weird not to be able to at least show it 5-7 times a game

          • whozat

            If you don’t really have command of/confidence in it…why use it? Fastball/slider/change wouldn’t be an odd arsenal for a pitcher.

            • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

              it wouldnt be, but he doesnt have a slider either… like no breaking pitch to speak of… hes strictly fb-change

              i could almost understand that out of a high school pitcher, but college? just seems weird and almost red flag-ish

              maybe im reading too much into it

              • whozat

                Oh.

                That IS weird. A change usually breaks towards a same-handed batter, right? It seems like he’s need an offspeed offering that moves the other way too, or he’d have a hard time being effective against both righties and lefties.

                Huh. Maybe he has a cutter or a two-seamer? I dunno. Weird.

    • whozat

      only if they also take some guy named barry, so they can hang out together

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGOjQs8JUpc

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
          • whozat

            Heh. Reno 911 isn’t half as good as The State was, despite having most of the same people on it.

            • jsbrendog

              agreed. the state complete box set on dvd comes out this summer….the anticipation is intense

              • whozat

                OAKTAG!!!

          • whozat

            Also, I’d like to work “Sssh…ain’t none of yo’ concern, baby” into daily conversation with greater frequency.

    • rbizzler

      RE Trout: Per Klaw there are a number of teams in the 16-25 range that have indicated that they ‘won’t let Trout get passed them’ if he is still on the board. I know that could all be posturing, but KLaw seems to have pretty good sources and has good things to say about the kid (although he may not stick in CF).

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Yup. Seems like everybody is hopping on the Trout bangwagon.

        (Yeah, that’s right, I said it.)

        • whozat

          I’m considering replacing “IETC” with “bangwagon” and “::facepalm::” with “oaktag”, thus inching ever-closer to my goal of being completely incomprehensible to noobs.

          • Mattingly’s Love Child

            well I’ll be glad that I’ve added something to the dialogue!

        • whozat

          Also, “trout bangwagon” sounds like a really, really fringe fetish website.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Troy McClure would love it.

            • cult of basebaal

              +1

        • JohnC

          Don’t you guys remember the last guy we had name ‘Trout’? George told then manager Pinella after he got him:

          George: “Hey, I just won you the pennant’.

          Pinella: “What do you mean?”

          George: “I got you Steve Trout”

          We know how that worked out.

  • Blackdragon905

    Any chance Jacob Turner can fall to us?

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

      im a jacob turner fan as well… and from what i hear grant greens status is falling (i dont know why) and that he could even get into the 20s…

      ::fingers crossed::

      • Doug

        But is there enough time for USC shortstop Grant Green, UNC right-hander Alex White, etc., to polish off their junior seasons?

        quote from a scout on green:
        “I don’t think three weeks of good defense tells me Green is a shortstop. If he hasn’t shown that yet, he’s run out of time.”

    • JohnC

      I did see one mock draft that had us taking him, but I don’t think he falls that far.

  • V

    Off topic, but Kevin Goldstein mentioned Hector Noesi:

    “Sleeper alert!

    Hector Noesi, RHP, Yankees (Low-A Charleston)
    Wednesday’s stats: 7 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K
    Coming into year, Noesi wasn’t known for much more than a 50-game suspension two years ago for performance enhancing drugs. This year he’s known for utterly dominating the Sally League, as last night’s start, in which he retired the first 19 batters he faced was just another in a season-long run of big nights for the 22 year-old Dominican. He’s just to give up a run in 27.1 innings this year, and in three games since moving to the rotation, he’s allowed just four hits in 15.1 innings.”

  • Blackdragon905

    Anybody have a scouting report on younginer? thanks!

    • Doug

      Younginer is one of the top arm-strength guys in this draft. He’ll sit 93-95 mph as a starter and hit 97 repeatedly in relief (he’s often used as a closer instead of as a starter, which is extremely unusual for a top high school pitching prospect). His main off-speed pitch is a sharp downer curve from 72-74 mph that is a plus pitch when it’s on. He also throws a straight changeup around 80 with decent arm speed. His arm is stiff in back and there’s a lot of effort as he catapults the ball over his body toward the plate; he pronates his elbow very early, doesn’t repeat it, and finishes with significant recoil. He makes up for much of this with great arm speed, but the problems repeating the delivery and the stress it places on his shoulder have the majority of teams looking at him as a bullpen guy in the big leagues, with the ceiling of a top-shelf closer.

      • whozat

        Sounds like a lefty Chris Garcia…he’ll tease us with amazing stuff when healthy, but never be able to pitch for more than 2 months straight without a DL stint.

      • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        Is this your own analysis or is it from BA or KLaw something?

        • Doug

          KLaw

          • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            Oh ok, thanks. I thought maybe we had someone with some personal knowledge of this stuff.

            You should probably acknowledge the author of work that you post in a comment here and make clear where it came from.

            • Doug

              i will next time…thanks

  • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

    I shelfisly hope the Yanks draft #98 on that list. Good friend of mine and it would be pretty cool having him in the yankees system.

  • Axl

    Well hopefully they stop taking high ceiling oft-injured candidates because we have plenty of those already and not much is getting accomplished. Might try for the sure thing…or at least the healthy durable above average guy…whoever that may be…

    • Mattingly’s Love Child

      Brackman is making progress. Joba has worked out pretty well so far.

      When you pick at the end of the 1st round (or not at all as some past years), it’s tough to get a healthy, durable, above average guy. Generally you have the choice of injured-high ceiling or flawed players by picking near the bottom of the 1st round. It also wouldn’t hurt to get lucky every now and then (like Joba).

    • rbizzler

      This is a great theory. Much better than the Ynakees recent draft strategy which was to take the injured crappy guy with no talent or upside.

      You should shoot them a resume, they need to get you on the payroll.

    • Joop

      No.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Axl, I love ya, dude, but your strategy is the exact opposite of what we should be doing.

      Bypassing the high-ceiling (but oft-injured) guys to take the sure things or the healthy durble above average guys is how we ended up with Jon Poterson, John-Ford Griffin, Bronson Sardhina, David Parrish, David Walling, Andy Brown, etc. etc.

      Our farm sucked when we drafted the ‘safe” guy year after year. It sucked. The only way good teams can get good talent in the modern draft is to gamble on high-upside guys at the bottom of the round (or pay overslot for guys who fall with bonus demands, or simply luck into guys who blossom unexpectedly, like Phil Coke).

      Most of the good talent we’ve drafted recently we got because they were good talent who fell due to injury risk. If Brackman and Joba were fully healthy, they probably would have been long gone and off the board way before we picked.

      • Doug

        brackman might have been a candidate for 1, no?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          That’s what was said.

          6’10” righty starters who sit 93-95 and touch 99 and flash a plus curve don’t grow on trees. If Brackman hadn’t been injured, I can’t see how he gets past the top 10 picks in any scenario.

      • Axl

        Yeah I know but there has to be some gems out there no? Didn’t Ian Kinsler go extremely late? There are quite a few diamonds in the rough out there…maybe our scouts just aren’t nearly as great as others. If I did shoot my resume over and got a job over having some pull…I’d suggest we spend a lot more money on scouting. I know it’s incredibly difficult having late round picks over and over…but there must be something else we can do. Hughes is young but still doesn’t seem like he can shake whatever it is that’s making him so inconsistent. Kennedy looks like a career AAA pitcher. Kei Igawa? What was the point? Not only did we pay Kei Igawa but we actually paid somebody else to make the decision and agree to sign Kei Igawa as well?? It’s tough to get these draft picks…especially when you’ve gone to the playoffs for 13 straight years and hold on to your prospects and sign free agents long term…it’s hard to get many picks I guess…

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Axl, I’m going to say this again:

          Not everything has a narrative. Sometimes Most of the times, shit just happens.

  • dkidd

    if it gets to late september and two teams are neck and neck for the worst record, it will be fun to see who tries “harder” to get strasburg

    • rbizzler

      What?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        ummm… yeah. He doesn’t know.

        dkidd, school yourself: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mlb_draft

        • dkidd

          draft knowledge FAIL

          i hereby oaktag myself

    • Doug

      that’d be for the #1 pick next year

    • Mattingly’s Love Child

      The draft is in June, based on last year’s standing.

      But the draft for Bryce Harper (2011?) could have some teams thinking about tanking next summer.

      • JohnC

        In that case, Yanks should be tanking right now in order to have another shot at Gerrit Cole in 2011

  • kSturnz

    Think Scheppers falls?

    would love BB, though

    • Doug

      just an fyi, klaw’s not sure borchering will remain a 3B:

      “In the field, Borchering has enough arm to play third base but doesn’t have great range or actions there, so it’s at least even money that he ends up at first.”

    • JohnC

      Scheppers is now projected to go top 10, maybe as high as # 2. I just hope we don’t take Luke Bailey with our 1st pick. I’m sick of us drafting TJ surgery guys and having to wait a year before they even step on the field.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Meh, I know we always go BPA, but I can’t really see us taking a catcher at 29 at all. I doubt any of these catchers would really be the best player available to us at that spot, not even Bailey. I’d give several outfielders and pitchers the edge over most of the catchers in the low-20’s range. Which is good, because it fits better with our organizational need.

        Just my hunch.

        • Doug

          any LHPs on our radar, b/c i personally think that’s our greatest organizational need right now