Cashman: Possible worst-case scenario for Nady


In Mike’s DotF tonight, he noted that Xavier Nady played just five innings at AAA. According to Brian Cashman, that wasn’t a planned short stint. The Yanks’ GM has said that Nady felt something in his right elbow following his second throw of the night and removed himself from the game. This may be a worst-case scenario for Nady. If this was not a precautionary move by Nady, it could mean the season-ending surgery Nady had hoped to avoid. We’ll follow up with this as soon as we know more.

Categories : Asides, Injuries


  1. [...] Confidence Poll « Game 72 Spillover Thread II Cashman: Possible worst-case scenario for Nady » Jun [...]

  2. Fuck.

    A solid Yankee win, a great Knicks draft, I just took a nice dump… this evening was going so well.


  3. Drew says:

    Well that is not good. Hopefully it’s just some fatigue…

  4. Eh…

    So if Nady can’t come back, what do you all think the Yankees will do? Trade for a bat? Promote J-Rod or Shelley?

    • Probably the same thing they’ve been doing for the last 2.5 months. Maybe we’ll see Tomko replaced by someone actually good, but the Yankees don’t need a bat. They’ll look from within for the 25th man.

      • I wouldn’t necessarily be too opposed with not promoting someone else since they’ll be in the AL for the rest of the season, but I think with Pena performing respectably enough for a UTI, another OF replacing Ransom’s spot would be worth it.

        • The Yanks are carrying a back-up catcher, two back IFs and four outfielders + Matsui. I don’t think they really need to swap Peña out for another outfielder.

        • Stryker says:

          shelley duncan perhaps? he wouldn’t necessarily have to play the field all that often but he’d bring some nice pop off the bench — better than bringing berroa back or keeping another utility infielder on major league team IMO.

        • JP says:

          I think they are fine as is. Things maybe look a bit thing bat-wise when playing the NL, since Matsui is relegated to pinch hitting. But once the interleague nonsense is over, I think the roster is fine the way it is.

          To be honest, I sort of wondered how Nady was going to fit in anyway. I don’t think it’s a good idea to have just one reserve infielder; among the OF, the only guy you can send down is Gardner, and I don’t think I’d want to do that. He’s as valuable as the Great Jacoby Ellsbury, for crissakes. Nady was going to give the Yankees roster issues… Maybe they were hoping to trade Melky once Nady returned.

  5. Stryker says:

    well that sucks. remember when the yankees blogiverse was clamoring for nady to be traded? funny how things work out..

  6. Doug says:

    looking at it from nady’s point of view, if indeed he does need another TJS, not sure he’s too happy right now losing 2 months of rehab before he heads off to free agency.

    • That was his choice. The bigger concern Nady will have is the fact that he needs this second surgery. The odds of coming back strong from a second Tommy John surgery are far worse than the odds of coming back strong from a first.

  7. Rich James says:

    OH goodie! Swisher playing everday!

    Some on put a bullet in my head!!! :(

      • Rich James says:

        no it is not..

        i kinda like my players to get more hits than K’s…just a little thing of mine

        • You keep saying that as though it matters. It doesn’t. This whole “good players get more hits than K’s” thing is something you have created for yourself and you keep repeating. It just doesn’t matter as much as you think it does. He’s still a net positive contributor and a better one than Nady has been in his career.

        • i kinda like my players to get more hits than K’s…just a little thing of mine

          I kinda like good players to play more than less good players. It’s a thing of mine.

          And, Swisher’s a good player. Nady is a less good player. I’ll take Swisher over Nady everyday and twice on doubleheaders.

          Does Swisher strike out too much? Sure. Is he a flat out, hands down, no questions about it better player than Xavier Nady? I’d bet Joe’s mom Dorothy Pawlikowski on it.

          • Rich James says:

            oh i’m sorry…i forgot to mention i like players who actually get hits with RISP. You know like players with .307 avg with RISP like Nady last year…

            but if .216 with RISP is your thing by all means take the “better” player!

            • Pay no attention to the .386 OBP with RISP. And, since we’re using SSS’s here:

              Late and Close: .303/.489/.403
              High leverage: .250/.411/.386

              So, he may not be hitting w/much power in these situations, but more importantly, he’s walking to keep rallies alive/put himself on base. That’s a good thing.

              Another note on Swisher’s production: he had 36 RBI through 271 PA. The avg. MLBer has 31 RBI in that amount of PA. The average MLBer has had 171 runners on base in that situation. Swisher has had 164. So, with 7 less runners on than the average player, Swisher’s driven in 5 more than the average guy (this info is from B-R’s gamelog page).

              • Rich James says:

                So, he may not be hitting w/much power in these situations, but more importantly, he’s walking to keep rallies alive/put himself on base.

                I’m sorry but .216 with RISP is .216, and when he is making outs in clutch situations they happen to be bad ones…like 4 GIDP with RISP..why is that important? because he is tied for the team league and that is not “keeping rallies alive”

                • when he is making outs in clutch situations they happen to be bad ones

                  Nick Swisher, career OBP in RISP and in Close and Late situations:
                  .366, .399

                  Xavier Nady, career OBP in RISP and in Close and Late situations:
                  .341, .354

                  Xavier Nady makes more outs in both RISP and in “clutch” situations than Nick Swisher does.

                • Yeah, but, he’s still not making outs as much as you assume. He’s getting on base in those situations. A lot. That’s a good thing. Passing the baton and keeping the rally going by walking is a good thing. Batting average is not the only stat that matters with runners in scoring position. A batter’s job isn’t just to hit, it’s to not make outs. Nick Swisher is good at not making outs. Also, if you’re going to judge a player on 71 PAs, less than a month’s worth of PAs, that’s just silly.

            • Yup.

              Because there’s only one thing in life that’s important: RISP.

              If player X has a career BA of .265 with RISP, he’s better than player Y who has a career BA of .221 with RISP.

              What’s that, you say? Player Y has a career line of .243/.356/.456 (113+) and player X only has a career line of .280/.335/.458 (108+), and that means that while player X may be better than player Y in the small data sample of RISP that I’m elevating as the end-all, be-all of important metrics, he’s actually much, much worse in the much larger data sample of non RISP plate appearances and also worse overall? And that it’s foolish to overstate the importance of RISP because over larger sample sizes, discrepancies between RISP PA’s and non-RISP PA’s tend to disappear? And that player X also is a pretty cruddy defensive player while player Y covers a ton of ground and is a defensive asset?

              Ah. My bad, I missed that.

              • Rich James says:

                ah i see…

                Player Y has more Plate Apperences than Player X with RISP! So that makes sense..

                oh and Player Y has more K’s than hits in his career!

                Question: With a runner on 3rd in a tied game? whats better? a hit? or a walk?

                • I hate jumping into these, but.

                  Clearly, it goes:

                  Hit > Walk > Out

                  Nady gets more hits, but makes more outs. Swisher gets fewer hits, but also makes fewer outs. Both have value.

                • Jack says:

                  Question: With a runner on 3rd in a tied game? whats better? a hit? or a walk?

                  Yes, a hit is better. However, you are talking like a walk is a bad thing. That is wrong.

                • A hit is better in that situation but if the alternative is a walk, I’ll take it. Walking is a good thing. Putting more men on base is a good thing.

                  Here’s the delicious part, too:

                  Career OPS w/RISP
                  Nick Swisher: .784
                  Xavier Nady: .750

                  Career OPS, 2 Out/RISP
                  Swisher: .821
                  Nady: .795

                  Career OPS, Close and Late:
                  Swisher: .852
                  Nady: .800

                  Career in High Leverage Situations:
                  Swisher: .824
                  Nady: .827

                  So, in one situation, Nady has a .003 advantage in OPS. Otherwise, Swisher outperforms him and does quite well in these clutch situations.

                • Rich James says:

                  i am not saying a walk is a bad thing…not at all. and i’m not trying to come off hating nick swisher..

                  but i’m watching the game and i see swisher make bonehead plays…and i’m supposed to ignore those because he walks? pretend they didn’t happen because his OBP is good?

                • Everyone makes boneheaded plays. You’re just picking on Swisher because you seem, in my opinion, predisposed to not like him. His just seem “louder” because he’s a far more outspoken character.

                  Watch Melky dive for a ball he should have caught or Damon mail in a throw. They all make boneheaded plays. It’s going to happen during the course of a 162-game season.

                • Rich James says:

                  i hate when a player dives for any ball because if it gets passed you…it’s seriuos damage. Now i love when he makes the catch don’t get me wrong, but i don’t like it..i’m old school..i say keep the ball infront of you and call it a day…and thats why i hate melky doing it! and thats kinda why i still see him as a 4th OFer.

                  and the only thing i hate more than a player diving for ball and missing..is a player straight dropping the ball all together! Ex. Johnny Damon for what now feels like once a week!

                  and i like nick swisher..i like his attitude..i like the fact he is loose…i like that he seems to bring a team together and i think every good team needs a person like him.

                  but i don’t like him as a player…didn’t like him in okland as a player…damn sure didn’t like him in Chicago as a player..and nothing has changed..and it has ZERO to do with the person he is!

                • Why don’t you like the player he is? He’s an above average fielder with a decent arm, he gets on base a lot and can hit the ball out occasionally. He’s also seems to be a good clubhouse guy and affects team chemistry positively. What’s not to like?

                • Rich James says:

                  as i said above…my not liking him has nothing to do with the person he is!

                  personally, I do not like moneyball players! i just don’t…i don’t like those K, BB, HR guys. and that’s what he is..and actually his HR numbers are kinda weak for the type of player he is.

                • I do not like moneyball players

                  Moneyball wasn’t about what you think it was about. It was a book about how teams with fewer financial resources tried to find hidden value in cheap players so that they could compete on the same level as the Yankees and Red Sox.

                  Your not liking Moneyball players makes as much sense as this irrational dislike you have of guys who have more strike outs than hits.

                  By the way, nine times during his career, Mickey Mantle had more strike outs than hits in a season. But he sucked, right?

                • Rich James says:

                  mantle hit 30-40-50 HRs a year…swisher hits 20-25.

                  and when i talk about moneyball players, i’m talking about the type of players that billy beane openly talks about in the book that he likes..high on base guys..Giambi, Swisher, Youk, Chavez, Hatterberg, justice…the kind of guys who have a high OBP but equally high K rate

                • At the time, he liked the high-OBP guys because other teams weren’t paying as close attention to that. It’s a book about maximizing finite resources, not on-base percentage. I ask this as a non-snarky question: Did you read the book?

                • Giambi: good player
                  Swisher: good player
                  Youkilis: good player
                  Chavez: was a good player
                  Justice: good player

                • Rich James says:

                  yes read the book when it came out some 8-9 years ago..

                  i read about the thought that a college player is more likely to have MLB sucess than a high school player..i read how capitalism commands efficiency..i read about how RBI and BA are old school ways of looking at baseball

                • Rich James says:

                  i’m sorry 5 years ago or something like that

            • JP says:

              Whether X was going to make a big offensive contribution on his return was a huge question mark. The .340 BA with a few homers last year was an anomaly…well above his career numbers.

              He’s a good, solid player. But in terms of offensive contribution, he isn’t as good as Swisher. Swisher creates more runs, and uses up less outs. Now, maybe if we’re going to factor in goofiness, or tattoo taste, or odd upward-looking gestures, or lip-tobacco-wads, I’ll give the nod to X.

              If Nady came back at, say, 80% of his typical production, he wouldn’t be that much more valuable than Brett Gardner or Melky right now. I’m not saying he isn’t better than those two guys, but I think your estimation of Nady is inflated.

        • Yeah, I’m with you. It’s not like he makes it up by walking a ton or hitting for power–what’s that? He does both of those things? Nevermind, then.

    • /facepalm
      /batshit insane

    • Moshe Mandel says:

      Yeah, that Swisher is awful. His .863 OPS and 31 XBH are awful!!!

  8. Matt M. says:

    CTRL + Z! CTRL + Z CTRL + Z

    damnit..? tabata’s not back….

  9. Simon B. says:

    Well, at least Tabata and Ohlendorf suck so it’s not like we lost much anyway.

  10. [...] Confidence Poll « Cashman: Possible worst-case scenario for Nady Jun [...]

  11. Andrew says:

    Jeez. A full season of watching Nick Swisher play a terrible RF and humiliate himself on the basepaths.

    • Jeez. A full season of listening to overly-demanding fans whine about a player who’s actually better than Xavier Nady.

    • Christian says:

      The terrible RF who has a career +3.5 UZR/150 in the OF compared to Nady’s -4.4.

      And two baserunning mistakes make him a bad baserunner?

      • Andrew says:

        If you think he’s a better all-around player than Xavier Nady… I don’t know what to tell you.

        Fielding? Nady.
        Hitting? Nady.
        Baserunning? Nady.

        And none of those are even close. Oh, but Swisher is a great clubhouse guy because he has a brohawk and salutes the bleacher creatures! My bad, totally forgot. SWISHER IS TEH MAN!!!11

        • Well said. I loved the your evidentiary background you provided. Very compelling.

        • Can you actually back that up with, you know, real evidence? I don’t think so. I’d love to see you try though.

          • Rich James says:

            How bout my own 2 eyes??

            like when i see Swisher air mail a throw to home from shallow RF..let me see if i can find a number to back that up.

            Or when i see Swisher run to 3rd on a fly ball to LF…whats wrong with that? there were no outs and he didn’t tag up..Bay caught and fired to 2nd..double play..let me check in the box score for how that’s scored!

            • Christian says:

              Your eyes > statistics. OK. Great argument, well backed up with evidence.

              • Rich James says:

                come on dude..i mean u watch the games. You see it just like i do.

                the horrible base running, the bad plays in the OF, the DP’s…the STRIKEOUTS!

                • You know who strikes out more than he hits? Ryan Howard. Adam Dunn. Reggie Jackson.

                  None of those are bad baseball players because of it. You’re fighting an image that isn’t real. You’re the Don Quixote of strike outs.

                • Christian says:

                  Rich James- One bad defensive play,and two bad baserunning errors do not make you a bad baserunner or defender. And whats the difference between a K and a ground out, or fly out. As far as I know they all count the same.(Unless it’s a double play)

                • Rich James says:

                  Ryan Howard hits 40-50 HR’s a year.

                  Adam Dunn hits 40 HR’s a year.

                  Reggie Jackson was a 35-40 HR a year guy

                • Swisher doesn’t have their power, sure, but not a lot of guys do. Swisher does do one thing that those guys do/did a lot of: he walks. He averages 93 per 162 games, more than Jackson (79), more than Howard (91), but less than Dunn (115). He also averages fewer strikeouts per 162 (142) than Dunn (180), Howard (197), and Jackson (149). So, he may not be hitting for their power, but he’s walking at the same (or a slightly higher) rate and striking out at a lesser rate.

            • JP says:

              Your eyes are valid sources of evidence. But your eyes can’t see, nor can your brain remember everything your eyes see.

              You believe in homeruns, right, and slugging average, and making an out versus getting on base? I’ll defend non-quantitative observations for anyone, but you can’t ignore simple, tangible quantitative evidence.

              That evidence – simple things like slugging percentage, runs created, outs made, etc. – show that Nick Swisher is a better offensive player than Xavier Nady. Nady hits for a higher batting average, which only accounts for a small fraction of a player’s total offensive value.

              Fielding? I have serious doubts about the validity of UZR, but in terms of player to player comparisons, zone ratings tell us something about defense…there is no compelling stat evidence that Nady is a better fielder than Swisher.

              But even if he is, it doesn’t really matter much. Corner outfielder defense is the least important defense on a baseball team. The difference between the worst and best corner outfielders does not account for that many runs during the course of a season. Offensive differences between corner outfielders are probably 5x more important to a team’s wins than defensive differences are.

              • Your eyes are valid sources of evidence. But your eyes can’t see, nor can your brain remember everything your eyes see.


                The fact that your eyes tell you Swisher’s a much worse player than Nady, but the stats say Swisher’s not a much worse player than Nady, should indicate to you the fallacy of trusting your eyes.

                You’re eyes can’t possibly encapsulate and remember the results of all of Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady’s plate appearances and fielding chances. Stats can and do.


                Stats >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> your eyes

        • The irony of this statement is that the people who back Swisher tend to be more statistically inclined and probably wouldn’t give a shit about Swisher’s clubhouse mentality and rapport w/the fans.

          • Andrew says:

            Didn’t know I needed to provide statistics to a bunch of people who have supposedly been watching the team all year. Do you really want to compare Xavier Nady’s stats the past 3 years to Nick Swisher’s? Really? Do you really want to tell me Nick Swisher is a better RF than Nady? If so, you don’t know baseball.

            • Saying other people don’t know baseball is the most annoying thing in the world. Please stop.

            • Andrew: If you can’t have a discussion/argument without relying on personal insults, we’re going to ban you. It’s in our commenting guidelines. Calm down.

              • Andrew says:

                That wasn’t a personal insult, aren’t one of you studying law? It’s like the old threat addage.

                Don’t get all worked up about it. All I’m saying is that it’s quite apparent that Xavier Nady is a much better player than Nick Swisher, in almost every facet of the game. I don’t need to go fish for his UZI rating to prove it. People who have watched both play for extended period of time, and know the game, know what I’m talking about.

                • Andrew says:

                  adage* hmm

                • Seriously, Andrew. You’re really pushing the line here. Telling someone “you don’t know baseball” is a personal insult. That’s long been our view of it.

                  We’ve asked you not to take tones with people and just to discuss things calmly and rationally. That’s not a tall order. End of discussion.

                • Christian says:

                  I watch every Yankees game. But I don’t know what I’m talking about because I use stats. Thanks for the personal insult.

                • Andrew says:

                  I never personally attacked you. Let’s get back to the point at hand.

                  I’m curious – in your mind, how is Nick Swisher a better player than Xavier Nady? Sure, he draws more walks, but that’s about it. His baserunning and fielding mishaps have already cost us 1-2 games this year, and he’s hitting a cool .241.

                  I’ll give him this – he has a great batters eye. In fact, it’s almost astounding how someone can have such a good eye and then hit .241.

                • whozat says:

                  Classic Equivocation

                  You can’t ACTUALLY prove you’re right (because you’re not), so you appeal to emotion and insinuate that anyone who doesn’t agree with you “doesn’t know the game”.


                • Andrew says:

                  Hilarious. It was a passing comment, not directed at anyone in particular, and is now being harped on to no end, most likely because YOUR argument is weak. Not mine.

                • Christian says:

                  Lets see, Nick Swisher has a better career UZR/150, OPS, and wOBA among various other things.

                  But batting average is more important than everything else right?

                  And no one has a else has a great eye and low BA. Especially Giambi, Dunn, Thome, etc.

                • I’m going to remove myself from this argument after this because, frankly, it’s going in circles and, I need to hit the sack. I’d just like to say that the pro-Swisher crowd has more than proved its point through statistical evidence. Ball’s in the pro-Nady court now, and the pro-Swisher side has a few strong arrows in its quiver.

                • Andrew: if you want my subjective opinion, not one based on something a little more concrete than my memory, here’s what I think of Swisher defensively:

                  He’s not flashy. He’s not going to make it look graceful out there, but he’s going to get to the ball. His arm isn’t fantastic but he’s not sporting a Damon like wet noodle out there either. He’s made some silly plays this season in the field, but that stuff happens to literally every outfielder in baseball. Swisher may not be Ichrio in the outfield, but he’s definitely not Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu. The irony is that everyone says Swisher isn’t a good fundamental fielder, yet he’s the only guy I see who consistently catches flyballs with two hands.

                • Andrew says:

                  Christian- Giambi is a .283 career hitter. Thome a career .278.

                  And no, BA isn’t all that matters, but it does matter. Fielding matters, too. So does baserunning.

                • Christian says:

                  Giambi and Thome aren’t hitting that now.

                • So two mistakes make the guy an awful base runner? One error makes him an awful fielder? Like I said below, which I’m sure you’ll ignore, Swisher isn’t a fantastic outfielder, but he’s not a butcher. He’s slightly above average, better than that at times, and that’s fine with me.

                • Rich James says:

                  someone explain to me…at what point, in the history of the sport of baseball, a WALK became more valuable than a HIT??

                  Was it when Billy Beane starting winning championships with players like Giambi and Swisher and Cust?? money ball players…you know the players that do 1 of 3 things; BB, HR, or K?

                  oh wait…that never happened!

                • Jack says:

                  someone explain to me…at what point, in the history of the sport of baseball, a WALK became more valuable than a HIT??

                  No one has said that. The argument isn’t walks v. hits, the argument is getting on base v. making outs.

                  money ball players…you know the players that do 1 of 3 things; BB, HR, or K?

                  Moneyball was not about walks. Why do people still think this?

                • Christian says:

                  The dynasty Yankees didn’t have guys w/ great OBP?

                • Joe LA says:

                  Just for the sake of argument let’s look at batting avg. from a historical standpoint.

                  Great Yankee Catcher Yogi Berra:
                  .274 career BA

                  Record Setting First baseman Mark McGuire:
                  .263 career BA

                  Hall of fame Yankee Willie Randolph at 2B:
                  .276 career BA

                  The Scooter! Phil Rizzuto at short:
                  .273 career BA

                  I could go all around the diamond, but tell me honestly that Yogi Berra, Mark McGuire, Willie Randolph and Phil Rizzuto aren’t great players because of their sub-.300 batting averages.

                • Joe LA says:

                  My bad. ALL STAR 2nd baseman Willie Randolph. Not in the HOF.

                • Nobody ever, ever ever said that a walk was just as good as a hit.

                  What we said was, and pay close attention here: NOT MAKING AN OUT IS BETTER THAN MAKING AN OUT. Getting on base is better than not getting on base.

                  Xavier Nady is better at getting hits than Nick Swisher is.

                  However, Nick Swisher is better at not making outs than Xavier Nady is.

                  Nick Swisher’s ability to not make outs >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Xavier Nady’s ability to get hits

            • Sure, I’ll compare ’06-’08, since counting ’09 would unfairly disadvantage Nady because of his missing time. Keep in mind this includes Nady’s best year (’08) and Swisher’s worst year (also ’08)

              Swisher averaged more homers, along with a better on base percentage and OPS+. And, as it’s been well documented on this site by many different people, Swisher has better UZR numbers in RF than Nady and those numbers are much more accurate than your eyes or my eyes. If you want to go by BP’s FRAR/A system, Swisher has posted a slightly better rate than Nady, 99-97.

              So, yeah, I’d take Swisher over Nady every single time.

              • Swisher’s also two years younger and has never missed significant time with an injury. Nady’s possibly staring a second TJS in the face.

              • Christian says:

                Apperantly you and I don’t know baseball because we use stats.

                • Andrew says:

                  Wow, your use of stats there wasn’t selective at all! You do know that Swisher hit like under .220 last year, right?

                • Christian says:

                  Batting average is not NEARLY as important as OBP. Your the one using selective stats. Use one besides BA.

                • You said the last three years, so I looked at the last three years. Those three years included Nady’s career year that he’s unlikely to repeat and Swisher’s worst year that he’s also unlikely to repeat. So, with two “normal” seasons for them both, along with the one extreme for each–great for Nady, awful for Swisher–Swisher still seems to come out on top.

                • Andrew says:

                  How does Swisher come out on top? Because he has a higher OBP? How do you quantify base running, defense, etc…? Because if you could, Nady would certainly come out on top. There’s more to being a baseball player than hitting, and if you’re going to hang your hat on it, you better be better than a career .243 hitter and falling.

                  At best, it’s a push at the plate when you take into account Swisher’s OBP. Heck, even if you give Swish the slight edge hitting wise (which is a stretch), how can you honestly say he compares to Nady as a fielder, baserunner, etc…?

                  So is this the part of my post where I self-proclaim victory? Maybe that will impress Ben.

                • Andrew says:

                  If Swisher is an average OF, why is he replaced late in tight games by Melky in right? Seems like Girardi sides with me, in terms of the fielding argument.

                • So is this the part of my post where I self-proclaim victory? Maybe that will impress Ben.

                  Can you knock off the obnoxious attitude already? We’ve asked you three times now. Enough.

                  As to your other question, Cabrera is a better fielder than Swisher. So late in the game if Swisher’s lineup spot isn’t coming up, you can replace an average fielder with an above-average fielder for a net gain for the team. That doesn’t automatically make Swisher a worse fielder than everyone. He’s just a worse fielder than Melky.

                • Andrew says:

                  I remember for you guys calling for Nick Swisher to start back in early April, so I realize you don’t want egg on your face. But still, can you honestly say you think he’s done a good job so far this year?

                • Christian says:

                  Melky has a better arm and it puts two CF’s in the OF at once. I proved my point with facts, you make judgements with your eyes. I’m done arguing with you and how do you consider yourself the winner?

                • Andrew says:

                  Oh and as for the “BA is not nearly as important as OBP comment”… seriously?

                • Christian says:

                  Yea if your on base, it’s not an out. Lower OBP means you make more outs.

                • Because Melky’s a strong corner OF as well and has a stronger arm than Swisher (and a lot of guys)? I’m not saying Swisher is Ichiro out there, he’s not. But you’re making him out to be Adam Dunn and he’s definitely not. He’s an average to above average fielder.

                  And I can say that Swisher compares to Nady in many ways because the slight power edge, I think it’s two points in slugging, Nady has over Swisher is outweighed by Swisher’s advantage in on base skills. It’s also worth noting that Swisher’s Isolated Power, SLG-BA, is higher than Nady’s which should tell you that Swisher has more raw power than Nady because a lesser part of his slugging percentage is made up of singles.

                  I can say Swisher is the better fielder because at least two systems, UZR/Fielding Runs, show us that Swisher has an advantage. I watch a lot of baseball but the guys who compile that data, interpret it, and compute it watch a whole lot more and I trust their calculations a lot more than I trust my own eyes.

                  The baserunning, well, I think it’s a bit superfluous because it’s not like either one of these guys is going to blaze around the base paths. Swisher’s got 7 steals in his career and Nady has 16. The only reason you’re bringing it up is because Swisher made two bad base running plays in one week. Nady has probably done the same thing over his career. Hell, didn’t he stop between home and third at one point in Baltimore this year? Their baserunning is probably about even, but Swisher’s got the advantage at the plate and in the field.

                • Andrew says:

                  Lower BA means you make more outs, too…

                  Is this one of the facts you said you brought forth?

                • can you honestly say you think he’s done a good job so far this year?

                  Absolutely I can. He’s OPSing over .880, has played decent defense, and has been a good clubhouse guy. What is there that this guy hasn’t done that you want him to do? If you want him to hit for a high batting average, it’s not going to happen. He’s never been a high average guy and never will be. What he will do is walk a lot and hit for his share of power.

                • Christian says:

                  No, lower OBP means you make more outs.

                • Jack says:

                  Lower BA means you make more outs, too

                  Not really.

                • Evan says:

                  FWIW, BP’s baserunning stats has Swisher as being above average in ’07 and ’08 (+1.4 runs and +0.9 runs respectively). Nady was +0.9 and -2.1 (that’s between PIT and NYY). That includes stolen bases.

                • Lower BA means you make more outs, too…

                  Actually, it doesn’t. It just means you’re getting fewer hits. Let’s take Juan Pierre, for example. In 2004, Juan Pierre hit .326 for the Marlins, and even lead the league in hits w/221. Despite having such a high BA, he was second in the NL in outs, making 507 of them.

                • Lower BA means you make more outs, too…

                  Two players have 200 plate appearances each.

                  Player A goes 50 for 180 with 20 walks. That’s a .278 batting average, a .350 on-base percentage and 130 outs.

                  Player B goes 40 for 160 with 40 walks. That’s a .250 batting average, a .400 on-base percentage and 120 outs.

                  Lower batting average does not equal more outs if the on-base percentages are not comparable.

                • Andrew says:

                  OK, well if you think Nick Swisher has played good so far this year, I guess we just have different expectations for our players. I’m sure mine will soon be ridiculed as “unreasonable” or what not, but honestly… just make the simple plays and don’t screw up on the base paths. There’s nothing more infuriating and inexcusable than failing at those two aspects of the game.

                  I’m not a big Nady fan either, but I think he is just the better player by default, almost. Ozzie Guillen seriously disliked Nick Swisher’s play, and I can see why. I think Girardi is starting to get fed up, too, but only time will tell.

                • But Xavier Nady screwed up on the basepaths, too, and it literally cost them a run as he may’ve been able to score on the play. Why aren’t you labeling him as some awful base runner?

                  Ozzie Guillen disliked Swisher’s play because Ozzie, for some reason, doesn’t like it when guys walk and hit home runs. How is Nady the better hitter by default when the numbers all tend to point Swisher’s way, except for the ’08 season? You say it’s unreasonable for us to call you unreasonable, yet you’ve given no real reason or fact to prove that Nady is the better player, aside from your own opinion, while we’ve come up with reasonable, fact based arguments. Who’s really being unreasonable.

                • Andrew says:

                  Except for ’08

                  but isn’t that all that matters? We’re discussing who’s the better player NOW (of course Nady has been hurt, so we can’t look at his 09 stats). So Nady hit 25 HR, drove in 97 RBI’s, and had a .350+ OBP in his last full season played. Compare that with Swisher’s last full season in which he hit .220, hit 24 HR’s, and 69 RBI’s.

                • Rich James says:

                  Well..i suspect Ozzie didn’t like Swisher because he wasn’t getting on base like he thought he would..his OBP was .332 last year..Xavier nady’s was .357

                • his OBP was .332 last year..Xavier nady’s was .357

                  Considering Swisher’s batting average, a .332 OBP is good. He had 80+ walks last year…good thing.

                  but isn’t that all that matters? We’re discussing who’s the better player NOW (of course Nady has been hurt, so we can’t look at his 09 stats).

                  No, because you told me to compare their last three years and I did, excluding ’09 for each player for the obvious reason you stated above. And isn’t that injury, one that could essentially prevent Nady from being nothing more than a DH (and he definitely doesn’t hit well enough to justify being a DH), and the fact that he’s got two years on Swisher (born 1980, Nady: 1978), make Swisher a better choice?

                  So Nady hit 25 HR, drove in 97 RBI’s, and had a .350+ OBP in his last full season played. Compare that with Swisher’s last full season in which he hit .220, hit 24 HR’s, and 69 RBI’s.

                  Swisher hit only one less home run in 58 less at bats. That’s pretty solid. As for the RBI, Swisher drove in 20% of the runners he had on base, while Nady drove in 24% of the runners he had on base. That’s a slight edge to Nady, but as my good buddy JP would say, that’s less than one standard deviation away, and the difference isn’t that big. Swisher also didn’t benefit from having many runners on base. He had 340 men on base in his 588 PAs. The average player w/that many PAs could expect to have 371 runners on base. Nady, on the other hand, had 401 runners on base during his 607 PAs, while the average player w/607 PAs had 383.

                  But, again, you told me to look at their last three years, not their last full seasons. So, I did, and I think Swisher came out slightly on top at the plate because of his plate discipline and the fact that less of his SLG is derived from singles (more raw power), then factoring in defense, age, and injury history, I don’t see why Swisher is the wrong choice.

                • KayGee says:

                  Where do you find all of these in-depth stats? Can you provide a source for the info?

                • JP says:

                  Runs created (top 5 seasons): Swisher 105 98 95 69 64; Nady 96 64 66 44 45

                  HR (top 4): Swisher 35 24 22 21; Nady 25 20 17 13

                  SLG: Swisher 493 493 455 446; Nady 510 476 455 439

                  OPS: Swisher 864 863 836 769; Nady 867 805 790 760

                  Swisher is equal of better in just about all of that, and he accomplishes it using up less outs than does Nady. They are comparable players, and Nady may be a better defender and baserunner, I don’t know ’cause I didn’t research it. But offensively, which is the majority of the value of the player for a corner OF, Swisher is definitely better.

                • KayGee: The PA/base runner numbers are on the gamelog sections of each player’s Baseball-Reference pages.

                • Rich James says:

                  we’re not going to agree about this..

                  i’m old school, that means i like players that have a high avg..for the most part that means you are driving in more runs. Now swisher makes up for his lacking of hitting by having some pop in the bat.

                  So if we take out the 2006 for swisher (which was amazing) and look at the the 3 other seasons he was in the 20′s in HRs..in all 3 of those seasons (except one he played 130 or so) he played 150+ games.

                  now X had never played more than 130 games before last year…so that was really his 1st season of being an “everyday” player..and he preformed very well..better than Swisher in his last year in oakland.

                  now i’m sure you’ll shoot holes in my post and i don’t care..i think Swisher is a great club house guy but i also think he should be coming off the bench. thats my story and i’m sticking to it!

  12. Dan says:

    I hope that this was only muscle fatigue or strain as opposed to being a serious problem.

    I like Nady alot, and I think he could be a great addition to the team. I feel if he’s given the chance, fans will be more open to keeping him.

  13. NaOH says:

    Nothing against Nady as a person or outfielder, I’m relieved by this. I wasn’t looking forward to the roster limitation his condition seemed likely to impose. As an outfielder, it seemed like he was going to be limited in his ability to play regularly (which, admittedly, may have provided some welcome rests for Swisher). As a hitter, I wasn’t enthusiastic about him taking DH at bats. Matsui has historically been about equal against lefties and righties, so I didn’t see any advantage letting Nady take some of his ABs.

    Basically, it seemed like Nady would return to be a part-time outfielder, an occasional DH, and a pinch hitter. While we don’t know how he would have done in those roles, I wasn’t too enthusiastic about the limited on-field flexibility his condition seemed to mandate. Despite all that, for his sake I hope the injury isn’t serious and he can successfully and quickly resume his career.

  14. Zak says:

    Wait ’til August and bring up Austin Jackson.

    • Andrew says:

      Or September..

    • Eh, only if someone is really, really, really sucking and it’s a guarantee that Jackson’s gonna get playing time every single day. I’d prefer that he doesn’t get more than a cup of coffee at the MaL level this year; he needs to be playing every day.

  15. pat says:

    Wow, this thread is headnumbing.

  16. ChrisS says:

    I can’t believe I read through some of that nonsense. Props to the guys that fought the good fight. Them stats are wrong, I say, wrong. Nady’s 4:1 K:BB ratio means he tries really hard.

    I can’t say I’m surprised that Nady had a setback. I anticipated it just a couple of days ago in a comment somewhere. So, for a pile of AAAA pitchers and a sulky/lazy A-OFer with talent the Yankees received 3 months of 107 OPS+ offense and a talented reliever on the wrong side of 30. Both are injured and possibly out for the season. I’d really like to know how that deal played out and whether Cashman had a chance at McLouth or Bay or if Nady was the best he could do without giving up Joba/Hughes etc.

  17. Hova says:

    I respect and admire the toughness of Nady. But honestly, he’s thinking with his heart and not his head. He needs to call it a season and go get Tommy John surgery. He’s risking his entire financial future and career to play in 90 more games for the Yankees. In my opinion that is the dumbest thing he could possibly do.

    He seems like a really good guy and he should be thinking about next year and the well being of his family. I would love to see him get the surgery, rehab, and possibly be back with the Yankees next year. Even though he is a Boras client, he doesn’t seem like the type of guy who only cares about the money and nothing else.

    Good luck X-Man.

    • Zach says:

      I think it’s been stated before that this is his 2nd TJS, and you dont come back as strong as from the first surgery.

      You talk about financial future- is a team going to pay more for a guy who played 80-100 games or 0 games after April? Saito had the same surgery Nady had and hes throwing 93, he took a chance and it doesnt look like it turned out the way he hoped, wish him the best

  18. godfather says:

    grab da rosa for whatever it takes; he stretches a roster bigtime

Leave a Reply

You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

If this is your first time commenting on River Ave. Blues, please review the RAB Commenter Guidelines. Login for commenting features. Register for RAB.