Giving up something to get something


When all is said and done, I would be pretty surprised if Roy Halladay ended up in the Bronx. The Blue Jays are not too keen on trading Halladay within the AL East, and Halladay’s recent ineffectiveness aside, the Yanks would have to give up a king’s ransom to land one of the game’s premiere pitchers.

When I last examined the questions concerning the Halladay trade, I looked at the Yankee Untouchables and concluded that just three players belonged on that list. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes have already shown why scouts have long regarded them as a potential 1-2 combination in the Bronx, and Jesus Montero, at 19, has hit anything and everything thrown his way. Beyond them, I would be willing to move any Yankee prospect — and a few of the younger members of the Big League club — in the right deal.

Now, fans always tend to overvalue their own team’s prospects. The advent of the Internet has allowed us to track kids’ progress on a day-to-day level not really available to us a few years ago. We know what Montero does every time he’s at the plate, and we can see the results take shape in the form of gaudy season numbers. Still, a very valid school of thought believes that teams should trade the unknown for the known nearly all the time, and that contingent of analysts is alive and well in the Yankee Universe.

Our first example of this attitude comes to us via Peter Abraham. In a purely hypothetical post, Abraham opines on his belief that the Yankees could win now but need Halladay to do so. To get him, he recommends parting with Joba — for bad reasons — and Jesus — for good ones. “The unexplained loss of velocity is a concern. So is the stubborn unwillingness to listen to others. There is a chance he could be great. But as each day passes, there seems to be more of a chance that he won’t be,” he writes of Joba.

As each day passes, the chance that Joba will be great doesn’t lessen or decrease. He’s still in just his third full season of professional baseball, and he’s still feeling his way. As much as I have been frustrated with Joba’s results and process this year, we can’t write him off because of a bad half season. The Yankees have done that in the past, and it doesn’t ever end well.

Abraham’s argument concerning Montero closely echoes Mike Ashmore’s passionate piece urging the Yanks to trade Jesus. Ashmore, who watches Montero on a day-by-day basis, understands that Jesus is not likely to wind up a Major League catcher. Ashmore notes the Yanks’ depth at catching, and as Abraham summarizes, “There has to be pain in this trade and this is it.”

While Ashmore and Abraham focus on Halladay, the identity of the player targeted by the Yanks is nearly besides the point. To improve the team, the Yankees will have to give up something. As much as we joke about, they can’t really land anything for Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera. Last year, they gave up the unknown and mostly highly regarded Jose Tabata in a deal for two impact players. This year, who knows who it will be?

They can and will try to throw gobs of money at Aroldis Chapman, but he’s just another unknown not ready for prime time. The big fish come with a price tag now, and we’ll find out over the next 16 days just how much the Yanks are willing to pay.

Categories : Musings


  1. Chris says:

    So is the stubborn unwillingness to listen to others.

    I’ve heard this mentioned a lot (mostly from uninformed blog posters), and I’m just curious if anyone has a link that elaborates on how he’s stubborn and unwilling to listen?

    • Apparently, shaking off Posada counts as “a stubborn unwillingness to listen to others.” In my opinion, that’s making a mountain out of a molehill. It’s a problem; it’s not a personal failing.

      • gxpanos says:

        In fact, throughout the Angels game he sped up between pitches, even with men on base. Obviously it didnt help the results a whole lot, but I’m sure Long Eiland and General Joe telling him to cut the Trachsel crap was the reason he sped up.

      • Pete Abraham says:

        It has nothing to do with Posada or any other catcher. Read what Dave Eiland said the other day. Girardi is frustrated with him as well.

        They’re showing him evidence, time after time, of what he is doing wrong and he still does it. It’s not execution, it’s pitch selection and location.

        I have no idea whether it’s a personal failing or not. I don’t know enough about his personal life. But from a baseball standpoint, you’re supposed to listen to your manager and your pitching coach when you’re 23.

  2. nolan says:

    what about taking on Rios to lessen the pain (increase financial pain over player loss)? Rios can produce more on offense and defense than Melky can… we just will have to pay a bunch more for it. Still, it would give us the flexibility to then move one of the many outfielders we have…or just keep them all and say goodbye to Damon in 2010. What about something like Joba, Montero and Melky for Rios and Halladay?

    • What about something like Joba, Montero and Melky for Rios and Halladay?

      Still not interested.

      • nolan says:

        how come?

        • I’d rather have Joba and Montero for the next 10-15 years than Halladay for the next 3-6.

          Adding a Rios for Melky swap isn’t remotely enough of a pot sweetener.

          • RAB poster says:

            I have no idea how good Joba’ll be. Halladay gives us the BEST chance of winning a championship in the next three years.

            I love Joba. But the odds of him becoming Halladay are not high.

            • I love Joba. But the odds of him becoming Halladay are not high.

              And I love Roy Halladay, but the odds of him being a pitcher as good as what Joba will be 4-6 years from now are even lower.

              If it’s just Joba v. Halladay, yes, having Halladay over Joba increases our chances of winning in the next few years. But as each year passes, that margin decreases and eventually inverts itself. At some point, having Halladay and not Joba starts to decrease our chance of winning.

              That decrease gets magnified as you start to consider the decrease by not having Montero and any additional prospects we surrendered.

              • RAB poster says:

                But what if Joba bombs? We have no idea if he’ll bomb. It’s not likely, but it’s more likely he bombs then Halladay.

              • zack says:

                Now you know that simply isn’t true. OVERWHELMINGLY, the chances are against Joba being great, or even good, as they are for everyone. Halladay in 5 years from now has a far far better chance of still being very good than does Joba, simply put because he is a known quantity. Sure, he’ll regress, but the chances of Halladay regressed in 5 years being better than Joba in 5 are greater. Period. Doesn’t matter how stubborn you are about it either

              • Yeah def. Because there will be no more drafts and future players coming up.


          • Reggie C. says:

            Isn’t it easier to stomach watching Joba and Montero in Blue Jays blue if Halladay helped this team add a couple WS banners. Of course that’s no guarantee, but neither is it a guarantee that Joba ever gets to be a front-line caliber pitcher. Joba’s flashed two quality pitches. We’re not giving up a J-Verlander here.

          • currambayankees says:

            Someone thinking beyond just this season and maybe 2-3 down the road. I’ll keep Joba & Montero any day of the week to trading for another great pitcher on the wrong side of his best years. If the Jays want to trade Halladay and Wells (salary dump) and are willing to take lesser propects for us to take on the salary dump then I’d do the trade otherwise they can keep Halladay. Not worth it. This is what the 80′s Yankees would do under King George

        • toad says:

          Because it’s a bad deal and a bad philosophy. Get another old guy with a big contract and hope he performs instead of solving the problem you’ve got, which is how to turn Hughes and Joba into solid starters.

          There’s entirely too much magic bullet thinking in this whole Halladay discussion.

          • waswhining says:

            Win now is always a bad philosophy but it is OUR philosophy. You can’t expend the kind of money the yanks have this season, lose a pitcher like Wang and then balk at getting Halladay if he’s available (which he most certainly appears to be) and if the Sawks give up Bucholtz/Ellsbury and a couple of minor leaguers,would the screaming ever stop?


            I hate to trade Yankee players, particularly either Joba or Phil.

            • toad says:

              I doubt the Sox will trade for Halladay. There is a big difference between trading for the playoffs and trading for the regular season. In the playoffs you substitute Halladay for your #3 or 4 starter, and you only have a few games to get the benefit.

              In the regular season you replace your #5 guy, and have all year to profit. Sox would be trading for the playoffs.

    • Matt says:

      How about Austin Jackson, Mark Melancon, Joba, Dellin betances and Suttle for Halladay. Jackson strikes out a lot and will never be a big time run producer, Melancon will be an effective reliever at best, Joba will never be better than Halladay, Betances won’t hit the majors for some time and who know if he will ever develop and who the hell is Suttle, that satisfies the Jay’s need for an infielder, though he’s not a SS.

      • JMK says:

        I don’t think they’d take that. Zero known quantities, and few have any chance of real success at the major league level.

  3. Moshe Mandel says:

    Here’s the problem with Pete’s trade. Writers and fans downgrade prospects quicker than teams do. Joba is still one of the more valuable commodities in the game, a former top-5 prospect who has shown flashes of major potential at 23. Montero is currently a top 5 prospect, and Hughes was one as well. There is absolutely no way that a trade will require 2 top 10 caliber prospects. If it does, Boston does not have enough, Philly does not have enough, the Angels do not have enough, etc. A trade would hurt because it will cost you a top 10 type guy like Joba/Hughes or Buccholz, plus a top 50 guy like A-Jax or Lars, plus a top 100 guy like Bard or Romine, plus another high ceiling type in the lower minors, but not because it will require two huge prospects.

    • Jacob says:

      Agree, good post.

    • Observer283 says:

      I think this is one of the smartest posts I have seen on this topic yet. We are seeing the inverse of Jobamania. Jobaphobia perhaps?

      Look back at the Santana trade talks. Joba wasn’t even in the picture, people viewed him so highly. Thats why Hughes was the center of the debate. Joba was that much more untouchable than Phil.

      Now 20 great inings in the bullpen from Phil and some bad starts from Joba and the world has been turned on its head.
      People (not most of the people at this site, thankfully) seem to be writing of the possibility that JOba might become great. Its just too soon to do that.

    • Lanny says:

      And getting the best SP isn’t getting value for him???


  4. Quoting Mike and I from yesterday night’s open thread:

    Mike Axisa says:
    I’d trade him [Montero] in the right deal. Realistically, will his stock ever be any higher than it is right now? Doubt it.

    tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside says:
    So would I. The “right deal” would be for a stud, dominant, top-five guy at his position who’s 24-26 years old, like Hanley Ramirez, Felix Hernandez, Grady Sizemore, Joe Mauer, Justin Upton… you know, the guys who aren’t available in trades.
    The right deal would NOT be for a stud, dominant, top-five guy at his position who just turned 32 a couple of months ago. Because that’s 6-8 years of production we’re not going to get, because it’s gone.


    Now, I may have been using hyperbole there in that moot conversation about a one-for-one deal that would never happen (Montero for Halladay), because since Montero is still so far away from the majors there’s enough bust potential that they Jays wouldn’t possibly take only him for the proven Halladay, they’d need more.

    But the point I was making is that while we shouldn’t overvalue our prospects to the point where they’re untouchable, we should be wary about using our top prospects to get good players at the tail end of their careers rather than at the beginning of them. I’d be okay with us using our elite prospects to trade for Roy Halladay if he was 28, like, say, Dan Haren, rather than the 32 that he already is.

    Old guys decline and get hurt. We’ve learned that lesson. Even if Joba and Hughes never ever reach Halladay’s level of dominance, they probably help us win more games just because they’ll pitch more games of good production vs. Halladay’s far fewer games of great production. Because they have more good baseball in front of them.

    • Chris says:

      I would be more concerned about Hallady if he had a longer contract or wanted a long extension. Right now he is only signed through his age 33 season, so it’s not like you’re going to be burdened with an albatross of a contract when he’s 37 and clearly declining.

      • Moshe Mandel says:

        But then you gave up all those prospects for a year and a half, assuming he does not get hurt. That is the problem here- you trade that kind of package for a guy you would want to sign long term. If you do not want him long term, then you should not be giving up that sort of package.

        • That.

          The only thing worse than trading multiple good prospects for the next 6 years of Halladay is trading multiple good prospects for the next 9 months of him.

          • Chris says:

            So you think it’s better to have a bad contract for Halladay when he’s 37-38 than to let him go as a FA after his age 33 season?

            My ideal situation would be a 2 year extension. It would end the year after CC can opt out and the year before AJs ends, and also wouldn’t go too far into his decline years. If that’s not doable, then I would prefer no extension to a 4 or 5 year extension.

            • Observer283 says:

              The key word in your post is “My.” If Roy Halladay accepts a two year extension, he is either nuts or played very poorly during the rest of 2009 and the 2010 season.

        • Chris says:

          I disagree. Unless you can sign him for a discount now, why bother locking him up for years to come? Look at the Mets with Santana. They traded for him and had time to lock him in to a big deal, but did they really get a better deal than they could have gotten if he had gone to FA and they tried to resign him then?

          Also, it’s not like the prospects are going to be under your control for 10 years. If you assume that it will take a couple years in the majors for them to adjust, then you’re really only looking at about 4 years of productive play from these prospects before they hit the open market.

          • Ed says:

            They traded for him and had time to lock him in to a big deal, but did they really get a better deal than they could have gotten if he had gone to FA and they tried to resign him then?

            By trading for him, the Mets got Santana one year earlier and were guaranteed that he would sign with them. If they waited, he probably would have gotten a similar contract, but there was no guarantee he would sign with them.

          • Moshe Mandel says:

            We are not disagreeing about the contract. I dont think they should sign him. But that is the reason that I do not think they should trade for him.

    • gxpanos says:


      It’s funny how the same people (who usually dont know much of anything about the farm) who say “do whatever it takes to get Halladay!” will join in the chorus of ALL the disenchanted Yankee fans in 2-3 years when the big club is old and broken down and the farm is bereft of talent.

      • RAB poster says:

        The thing is, our farm is so loaded that we can give up a lot of good prospects for Halladay and still be in good shape.

        Do not underestimate the farm.

    • JMK says:

      Excellent post.

  5. Andy in Sunny Daytona says:

    I am willing to bet that Montero WILL stay behind the plate and be a catcher. I think the only he is bad at, and I’ve said it before, is his transition to throwing the ball. Everything else behind the plate is passable.

    I hope this Yankee team doesn’t become the Yankees of the 1980′s. That was an organization that was constantly chasing Amy. A wise old songerwriter said it best, “all we need is just a little patience”.

    • You know what the funny thing about the Yankees in the 1980s is? They had the decade’s best record. One day, when I have some more time, I’ll do a huge post on the Yanks in the 1980s.

      They made some bad trades late in the decade (Buhner, Leiter, Drabek), but mostly, they were consistently above average without the pieces they needed to win.

      • Andy in Sunny Daytona says:

        I remember the Yankees of the 80′s very well, they are the reason I love the Yankees now. My point was not that they were bad, but that they didn’t have patience. They were constantly tinkering with the team.

      • RAB poster says:

        Ironic. Very ironic.

        The 80′s are mostly remembered by Yankees’ fans as the only decade since the 1920′s that the Yankees won no championships.

      • JohnnyC says:

        What they lacked was pitching. It would have been interesting to see what they could have done in the second half of the decade with a rotation that was built around Righetti, Drabek, and Leiter. And if Gil Patterson hadn’t destroyed his shoulder.

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona says:

          Sure it would have been interesting to see what they could have done with those guys, BUT they traded two and moved one to the bullpen.

          The Yankees won a lot in the 80′s despite the unintentional sabotaging of an inept front office.

          Melvin Croussett (I had to do a shot)

        • RollingWave says:

          Al Leiter was no good until the mid 90s though.

          One guy people forget we traded was Fred McGriff, ouch.

      • And, really, the Yankees of the 70′s, 80′s, 90′s, and 2000′s all had the same organizational philosophy: Buy elite free agents when they come on the market, make some trades for elite players when there’s a good trade to be made, use our financial largesse to extend our guys to keep our core together or to swing sign-and-trades to get good players away from small market clubs that can’t afford them, try to hold on to a few prospects who we think have the talent to make it in the majors, and generally have a budget big enough to mask any errors or roadbumps along the way.

        Nothing much has changed in organizational philosophy during the Steinbrenner era, from start to present. We always bought stars on the market, traded some of our prospects for the pieces we thought we needed, and promoted the rest of our prospects. The only thing different about the title years was our good fortune of having a few really good prospects all come up together at the same time and have their primes simultaneously, coupled with good luck in trades and acquisitions that allowed us to hit the free agent jackpot repeatedly.

        Just like a batter having a hot streak and a slump, our successes and failures as a team over the past four decades are probably attributable to simple variance more than anything else.

  6. RAB poster says:

    I would NOT package Montero in a deal. Absolutely not. Package Romine and Sanchez if you have to, but not Montero. Even if he doesn’t end up catcher (I hope he does) his bat will be more than worth keeping wherever he plays.

    Pete’s comments on Joba were stupid.

  7. Hova says:

    We went far too many years without having a strong, young farm system. I’m not ready to throw huge pieces of that away for a 32 year old pitcher, no matter how good he is. I much rather try and push through this season and then spend money (which the Yankees have an infinite amount of, unlike top prospects) on a guy like Lackey this offseason.

    Yes we’ll probably overpay, but at least we get to keep Joba and Hughes and hope they turn out to be the studs. The Yankees can always print more money but they can’t create prospects like Joba, Phil and Montero so easily.

    • JohnnyC says:

      Lackey will be 31 this October. I wouldn’t spend that kind of money on him either.

    • RAB poster says:

      But we don’t know that Joba and Phil will amount to anything. We KNOW what Halladay will be.

      • No, we don’t.

        We HOPE we know what Halladay will be. But, Halladay could get injured tomorrow. He could be injured right now. Joba and Phil could take a leap forward tomorrow and start pitching like aces again, something both of them have already done at least once this year.

        It’s firmly within the realm of possibility that both Joba and Phil outpitch Roy Halladay as soon as 2010. A year ago, Zack Greinke looked like a quality prospect, but certainly not one of the best pitchers in the game. Yesterday, he should have started the All-Star Game instead of Roy Halladay, because he’s been the best pitcher in the American League thus far.

        • RAB poster says:

          Okay, he could get injured tomorrow. I’ll take that risk, since I find it more likely that Doc will come here and pitch ver wel than Joba and Phil will become Roy Halladay.

        • Chris V. says:

          Agree. What does everyone realistically think they are getting with Halladay at 32? Hes about equal to Mike Mussina when he signed his free agent contract with the Yankees. A very good player just past his peak, not a top 5 talent for the next 4-6 years.

          • RAB poster says:

            He’s better than Mike Mussina. Way better.

            WAAAAAY better.

            • Chris V. says:

              Check it out for yourself. Both very good in the AL east for many years. In fact I’m pretty sure Mussina through age 32 is Halladay’s most comparable play per b-ref.

              • RAB poster says:

                Mussina did well for us anyway.

              • Chris V. says:

                W L WL% ERA G GS CG SHO IP H HR BB SO ERA+

                Halladay 131 66 .665 3.52 281 255 40 11 1807.7 1763 150 420 1287 131

                Mussina 147 81 .645 3.53 288 288 45 15 2009.7 1895 210 467 1535 129

                Sorry for the formatting

              • Mussina when acquired by the Yankees (32 years old:
                Career: 129 ERA+, 1.175 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 200 IP and 4 CG per season
                3 most recent seasons: 129 ERA+, 1.191 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 215 IP and 4 CG per season

                Halladay now (32 years old):
                Career: 132 ERA+, 1.201 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 160 IP and 3 CG per season
                3 most recent seasons: 138 ERA+, 1.134 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 198 IP and 6 CG per season

                I’d say Chris V’s comp is pretty apt.

            • Chris says:

              Better, but not much better:

              Halladay ages 30-32: ERA+:138 WHIP:1.134 H/9:8.6 HR/9:0.7 BB/9:1.6 K/9:6.8 K/BB:4.34

              Moose ages 30-32: ERA+:133 WHIP:1.172 H/9:8.7 HR/9:0.9 BB/9:1.9 K/9:8.0 K/BB:4.26

        • Lanny says:

          Guys like Eric here wouldn’t trade a non prospect for a stud like Halladay. Guys like him would rather discuss minor leaguers stats and hope and pray they are good rather than get a player like Halladay and win a world series or two.

          They fall in love with these guys they’ve never seen play. Which is fine but unrealistic.

          So take them with a grain of salt. They are the same people who said don’t trade Kennedy, Eric Duncan, Melky, etc.

      • Ed says:

        But we don’t know that Joba and Phil will amount to anything. We KNOW what Halladay will be.

        I’m sure the Cardinals were saying something similar when they traded for DeRosa, the A’s were when they traded for Holliday, and the Mariners were when they traded for Bedard.

        Oh, and there’s also last year’s trade for Nady and Marte, which isn’t looking so hot right now. Cashman’s “this trade isn’t just for this season” idea didn’t work out very well.

        • Oh, and there’s also last year’s trade for Nady and Marte, which isn’t looking so hot right now. Cashman’s “this trade isn’t just for this season” idea didn’t work out very well.

          Considering that Tabata looks to be backsliding and the three pitchers we gave probably would have been released in numbers crunches anyway, the Nady/Marte deal is looking more and more like the Swisher deal:

          It’s a win by default, because we gave up nothing.

        • Esteban says:

          I don’t think Mark DeRosa should be discussed in the same sentence as Halladay in terms of value. People had doubts about Holliday moving from the NL West and Coors to the AL, and Eric Bedard while very good when traded, does not have nearly the track record of Halladay. Halladay is almost certainly the best pitcher is baseball, or at worst a top 5 pitcher.

          • Ed says:

            I don’t think Mark DeRosa should be discussed in the same sentence as Halladay in terms of value.

            It has nothing to do with value. It’s in response to the “we know what Halladay will be comment.”

            He was traded, then got injured (possibly for the season) 10 plate appearances later.

            Holliday dropped off the face of the earth after the trade.

            After Bedard was traded, he missed most of the season.

            Yeah, prospects are an unknown, but when you make a trade, you only know what the player’s track record is, not what they will do for you.

          • RollingWave says:

            Heres the thing though, the O’s got A LOT more for Bedard than the Twins got for Santana.

            ANd I would take Tim Lincecum before halladay

        • Chris says:

          I have no idea what Mark DeRosa would have to do with a Halladay trade. He’s an aging league average player. He is what he is.

          As for the other two, if the A’s thought they were getting anything different in Holliday than what they did get, then they screwed up.
          Holliday’s career road OPS: .801
          Holliday’s OPS this year: .792
          He appears to be a product of Coors.

          Bedard had one good and one very good season in Baltimore. He’s basically maintained that level of production when not injured.

          As for the Nady/Marte trade, who would you want back from the group that was traded? He gave up nothing and got something back. Maybe not as much as we would have liked, but something for nothing is still a good trade.

          • Ed says:

            As for the Nady/Marte trade, who would you want back from the group that was traded? He gave up nothing and got something back. Maybe not as much as we would have liked, but something for nothing is still a good trade.

            I don’t want anything back. Just pointing out that we expected a lot more out of the trade than we actually got. You can’t look at a trade as a sure thing.

  8. Little Bill says:

    Abraham isn’t very bright. A pitcher shaking off a catcher is the reason to get rid of a player? Jesus and Joba aren’t going anywhere. I think Abraham should stick to what he does best- bad reporting, like when he said the Yankees quit in the 5th inning last Sunday and to expect a lot of quick ABs so they can catch the plane. They then proceeded to load the bases twice over the next 4 innings. HINSKE WITH YOUR BEST SHOT!!!!!

    • Jeremy says:

      Abraham is a good reporter. He is a terrible analyst and an even worse airmchair psychologist.

    • I Remember Celerino Sanchez says:

      I think that’s harsh on Pete. He posts a ton of things every day. Sometimes he’s going to be wrong. If you wrote every Yankee thought you had every day, you’d be wrong a lot, too.

      As for Joba, I don’t pretend to know the details of what’s going on inside his life, but there has been a lot of talk that he’s not in the same level of physical fitness he was the last two years. And Pete didn’t say that Joba shaking off Jorge is why he should be traded. That’s really an unfair oversimplification. I think even Joba’s biggest defenders (and I’m a pretty big Joba fan) would agree that he hasn’t been as coachable as you might like to see. He doesn’t seem to get it that adjustments have to be made. I think he’ll get it eventually, but it’s not controversial to say he’s a bit stubborn now.

      Anyway, I don’t think I’d trade for Halladay, but I also admit that Joba has some learning to do.

      And most of all, I think your Abraham attack was really unfair.

      • Chris says:

        Do you have a link where they talk about Joba’s lack of fitness? Do you have link to anyone saying (or even intimating) that he’s not coachable?

        I’m honestly curious about those links. People throw out these accusations, but I haven’t seen anyone with inside information (even if it’s just from unnamed team sources) suggesting that this is true.

    • Reggie C. says:

      Especially a pitcher waving off a catcher who won’t be the catcher for more than another 1 1/2 season. Posada is already getting routinely spelled in favor of Molina.

  9. Ryan S. says:

    I love Joba and I always tell my friends they need to calm down about him not doing that great this year… but I’d make that trade PeteAbe posted about today (Doc for Joba / Montero / anybody else they wanted besides Hughes) if I had the opportunity.

    Its always been about WINNING NOW, and it continues to be that way. To me, I don’t look at Doc as a 32 year old pitcher, which as a rule of thumb, yeah you don’t want to trade the farm to get. I look at Doc as an ace workhorse with a 141-69 WL record and a 3.47 career ERA (and yeah, I know, those numbers aren’t the best indicators of how good a player he is but over 10 years its just an easy way to represent his body of work). I don’t think it would be considered ignorant to project Halladay to continue to be a #1 caliber guy for the next 2 1/2 years or so, and a solid #2 workhorse for at least a couple years after that.

    All that said, in the context of this veteran Yankee team, I go for the single, expensive but proven, top-quality commodity who’s got plenty of gas in the tank vs. the 3 or 4 cheap, high-upside (but unproven) players it would take to get him.

    As an aside – and this would have no bearing on an actual trade decision – wouldn’t Hughes be the perfect protege for a guy like Halladay to teach his craft to? It seems like a match made in heaven to me.

    • RAB poster says:

      Why is Joba rated so much lower than Hughes? Yes Hughes has been better for the past half a season but over the course of their careers Joba has wiped the floor w/Hughes, don’t you think that’s more telling than the past half season?

      I look at them both as equal on the prospect scale, maybe even w/Joba a little higher.

      • Ryan S. says:

        Oh I love Joba and I think he’s going to be a great pitcher, and I won’t shed any tears if that hypothetical trade isn’t made, which it probably won’t be. I guess I’d just go for the gusto and hope the ridiculous 1-2-3 punch of CC-Doc-AJ gets the job done either this year or the next while you cross your fingers and hope that Hughes can fulfill his potential and that the rest of the farm is able to somewhat fill the void that Montero leaves.

        Man, it really is a coin-flip, I think there are legitimate arguments for either side. TSJC has some very good points himself as to why to not do this deal.

  10. steve s says:

    Let’s cut to the chase. If the Yanks want Halladay then use the most infallible weapon you have which is $$$$. Tell the Blue Jays you’ll take on Wells too and give them choice of Gardner/Melky, Romine, and any 2 pitching prospects they want not named Hughes/Joba (and maybe even named Joba). Wells is a $$$ wash by next year as Damon/Matsui are gone and he’ll work out for Yanks like Lowell worked out for Red Sox.

    • RAB poster says:

      Once again: Is half a season really a better indicator of how good a pitcher is than the entire rest of their careers?

    • Tell the Blue Jays you’ll take on Wells too and give them choice of Gardner/Melky, Romine, and any 2 pitching prospects they want not named Hughes/Joba (and maybe even named Joba).

      A) The Jays won’t do that deal. They won’t move Halladay just to get rid of Wells. They’d sooner take the prospects and sit on Wells’s contract. They can’t move the best pitcher in the AL East and not get back at least two surefire future starters. It doesn’t make sense.

      B) You do not want Vernon Wells. Seriously, you don’t. Vernon Wells’s contract makes the Barry Zito contract look like fiscal responsibility. He’s a traveshamockery. Vernon Wells will be 31 in December, he’s got an OBP of .318 the past two and a half seasons, and he’s still owed 19.7M a year over the next FIVE YEARS.

      Do you want to pay 19.5M for the five years of Matt Lawton and Tony Womack? I didn’t think so.

      • steve s says:

        Saying Wells is Lawton/Womack is a little over the top. He obviously is not a $20MM a year player but he is not devoid of talent even if his OBP is poor. He is a tougher out than either Melky/Gardner (think Lou Pinella who’s OBP was not stellar either) and surrounded by rest of Yank talent he would likely rise to the occasion. I would rather see Wells come up with bases loaded than Swisher even though Swisher has superior OBP.

        • I Remember Celerino Sanchez says:

          Swisher: .237/.360/.464/.824
          Wells: .263/.312/.411/.723

          I fully understand that as fans we get emotional about players. It’s one reason why baseball is fun to watch. So I don’t in any way mean to devalue your feeling.

          But, the difference between Swisher and Wells this year is pretty stark. I would take Swisher and his additional 101 OPS points over Wells in a bases loaded situation, any day of the week. He would produce a ton more runs.

      • toad says:

        Wells gets about $5 mil this year and then $91 mil in 2010-2013.

        Is Halladay worth that, plus his own salary, plus players? Not in this universe. And consider that the contract hampers the Jays in future FA signings, and would hamper the Yankees as well.

    • Frank says:

      I agree with you although I’d be more inclined to take on Rios rather than Wells.

    • waswhining says:

      excellent comment.

  11. Reggie C. says:

    I wouldn’t trade MONTERO for the fact that his bat has power projection that boggles the mind. The man could … could be one of the best hitting catchers in the AL. Only Weiters has more promise with the bat among young catchers. Even if Montero had to be moved off catcher and transitioned to DH, i’d still want him around. Potential .300/ 30 HR hitters do not grow on trees or hit FA too often. Since the power #s will take a hit once Posada and Damon go, we’ll need Montero to supply it in whatever capacity.

  12. Mattchu12 says:

    I have my concerns over Joba as much as the next guy, but I wouldn’t trade him for Halladay. Montero? Yes. A-Jax? Yes. But Joba and Phil should be as untouchable as it gets. I personally think this whole discussion is the wrong one to have, we should be and should have sent Hughes to the minors to get one or two starts in to stretch him out so that he can rejoin the rotation.

    If there is any trade that should get done, it should be to bring in a young bat like Ryan Braun or Grady Sizemore or Justin Upton like Mike said way back when. I’ve been day dreaming about a three team deal where we send offense like Nick Swisher, Austin Jackson, and Jesus Montero to the Giants and they send some of that stellar pitching like Jonathan Sanchez and/or Matt Cain to Milwaukee so we can get a young bat like Braun in the outfield.

    A young core of Romine, Braun, Cano, and Teix to go with that young pitching in Joba, Hughes, and hopefully Wang is something we should be killing for. Maybe we pick up JJ Hardy as well and move Jeter to the outfield and have Johnny D split DH at-bats with Matsui? These are the kind of things we should be thinking about, between CC-AJ-Joba-Hughes-Pettitte and Wang when he gets healthy, we’ve got enough pitching to make it to the playoffs and once the playoff starts it will be more CC-AJ-and one or two of our best starters at the time anyways. Between those four, I’m sure we can form a formidable pitching staff for the playoffs and preserve our future.

    • RAB poster says:

      If you wouldn’t trade Joba you ABSOLUTELY wouldn’t touch Montero if you saw his sick minor league numbers.

      • Mattchu12 says:

        Seen his minor league numbers. But I’ve also seen he scouting report, and the dude is huge and it’s more likely the Twins go cheapo and let Joe Mauer go and he sign with the Yankees than Montero become the next Yankee Catching Fixture.

        Plus, he’s just starting AA. I remember a guy named Eric Duncan that we all thought was going to be an epic piece of our future when he played for Trenton too. Now he’s more valuable handing out hot dogs in the stands than he is playing for us or even as a trade chip.

        Prospects are no sure thing. Some of the best prospects never even make the bigs. We’ve just been spoiled with the likes of Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, and Dustin Pedroia and other rare big name prospects who panned out. It’s a luck and chance game when developing talent.

        • RAB poster says:

          No way Twins let go of Mauer. The GM would sacrifice his first born to keep Mauer.

          Anyway, Joba in the majors has been good. Not great, except when in the pen.

          Montero has been otherworldly in the minors.

          • Mattchu12 says:

            You’d think that. But Seattle let Alex Rodriguez get away, and we’re talking about pre-steroids and personality issues Alex Rodriguez. A young, fast, power hitting, high average, high caliber fielding shortstop.

            I’d give my first, second, and third born to keep Albert Pujols, but I’m far from being under the impression that him staying in St Louis is a lock. I don’t believe anybody is a sure thing to stay with anybody anymore, I’m from Alaska, and they’re all Mariner fans up here, and they were shocked when A-Rod walked and I heard nothing but it for years.

            I still think it’s more likely Mauer catches full-time than Montero, but that’s not to say he doesn’t move to the outfield or becomes the DH for the Yankees….

            • Reggie C. says:

              yep. failing to match a handcuffing $250 million contract offer was a pretty dumb move.

              • Mattchu12 says:

                Lol, that wasn’t the point.

                It was that teams can’t always keep their great players. Do you think the Yankees won’t be offering 20 plus million per year to Mauer if they even get a second to offer? Can the Twins match that? And would Mauer have enough love for Minnesota to turn down that kind of money when you have to imagine Minnesota’s difference will be pretty substantial.

                It’s what brought Sabathia to New York instead of Anaheim…

                • Mattingly's Love Child says:

                  Do you think the Yankees just print money? How on earth could they afford 20 million plus per year for Mauer, when they already will be paying that to ARod, Teix, CC, AJ….

                • RAB poster says:

                  Honestly, I really think that money is absolutely no issue to the Yankees.

                • Mattchu12 says:

                  Well Damon and Matsui are coming off the books and make like thirteen million bucks a piece, and Posada can replace Matsui in the lineup by becoming the DH and Mauer becoming the catcher. But if you ask me, I think he stays in Minnesota, just think Montero won’t be the catcher is all was my point was.

            • ARod got away because he was a 24 year old shortstop who hit free agency in the middle of baseballs biggest economic boomtime ever. He was poised not just to break the bank, but to break the entire economic paradigm (which he did). He also had zero ties to Seattle, a team that had just demonstrated their desire to compete by trading away Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey Jr.

              Mauer won’t hit the market until after next year, when he’ll be 28, and he has lived in Minnesota for all of those 28 years thus far.

              Not a good comp.

              • Mattchu12 says:

                Not the point, lol. Mauer may very well turn down the money because he enjoys playing Minnesota that much. I’m just trying to make the point that what the Minnesota GM wants is going to play very little into wether Mauer stays with the Twins.

          • Ed says:

            Anyway, Joba in the majors has been good. Not great, except when in the pen.

            If you think Joba in ’08 wasn’t great, then I’m scared to know what you do consider great.

            • RAB poster says:

              EXCEPT WHEN IN THE PEN.

              As a starter, too small a sample size.

              • Chris says:

                So his 59 IP as a reliever are a big enough sample size, but his 64 IP as a starter before this year aren’t?

              • Joba’s 12 starts, 65 innings as a starter in 2008:
                2.76 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, .245/.319/.322 allowed.

                • RAB poster says:

                  That’s great, but it’s only 12 starts. Not a great barometer, just like this half season is not enough to make a judgement.

                • Ed says:

                  If his starting numbers aren’t enough to make a judgment, then neither are his relief numbers. You’ve got 2 months in ’07 and 1-2 months at the beginning of ’08, and 1 month at the end of ’08 to go by. Not only is his relief work a small sample, but it’s a disjoint set of cherry picked small samples lumped together. And I’m guessing it probably also excludes his lousy relief work in the ’07 playoffs.

                • RAB poster says:

                  Lousy relief work in the 07′ playoffs was caused by midge attacks.

                  Relievers typically pitch less inings than starters anyway.

            • Mattchu12 says:

              Once Joba learns how to be efficient and productive instead of the flashy mess he’s been, he’s going to be a top end of the rotation starter. You can see every time he pitches, he tries to make things look pretty instead of getting the out. I think Jeter needs to make him sit down and watch Sabathia, because thats why Sabathia is so damn good.

              Sabathia has his moments of flash and showiness, but he gets his outs between those moments. Joba has all the talent, it’s about having the right game plan and the right mind set, and once he gets that down, watch out American League.

        • Mattingly's Love Child says:

          Eric Duncan was never as good in AA as Montero has already proven to be(granted Montero’s got an extremely small sample size). They are two different categories of prospect. Duncan was overhyped and not that good. Montero is good enough with the bat that his only challenge will be finding a position.

          • Mattchu12 says:

            I’m not doubting Montero, I’m just saying that he’s got a ways to go before he’s pushing Posada out from behind the plate. And we should avoid thinking of any prospect, just like Hughes and Joba not long ago, as anything more than a prospect until they are actually up in the majors and performing at their expected level.

            Montero is still likely a year and a half out at best.

            • Mattingly's Love Child says:

              You’re right on there. No argument here.

              Montero is a hitter far beyond his years, and the hope is that the Yanks can turn him into a catcher in the next year and a half. It may be a pipedream…

        • currambayankees says:

          Duncan was rushed thru the minors without ever showing he could hit while Montero has shown he could hit at every level he’s been at. Plus Montero will be AA for at least the next year. I still wouldn ‘t trade this kid or Joba or Hughes for a pitcher on the wrong side of his prime. One thing about Yankees fans patients has never been a virtue. Keep the kids and let them develop.

      • Mattchu12 says:

        And let’s not forget “The Next Greg Maddux” himself, Ian Kennedy. Even when he was healthy I couldn’t get drunk enough with the rest of the Bleacher Creatures to believe he would be a Greg Maddux caliber player, and now we see him barely hanging onto his career after an injury that nearly cost him his career and may very well cost him it down the road.

        • RAB poster says:

          Yeah I didn’t Kennedy would be that good when healthy and I don’t think that now.

        • Mattingly's Love Child says:

          Anyone who claimed Kennedy the next Greg Maddux was batshit insane.

        • mvg says:

          But last year when Kennedy pitched, they weren’t serving beer in the bleachers…

          And as I recall, Maddux was used as an example of someone who struggled early, and then turned himself around. That does not equal proclaiming IPK the next Maddux.

          • Mattchu12 says:

            Nah, people were calling him like Mike Mussina and Greg Maddux because he was such a thinker in addition to being so very talented. And when I visited New York and drank with the Bleacher Creatures, it was 2007. It was against the Blue Jays, and they were having a come apart because he only allowed one hit and one run.

            • mvg says:

              Must have been pregame : p

              Anyway, my point was, yes you can compare him to being that type of pitcher, in terms of velocity, and overall strategy to get out batters. Just like you can say Joba is the same type of pitcher Beckett is. That is not the same as saying Joba is “the Next Beckett.”

    • Mattchu12 says:

      I’d also like to note that I think Braun could play if not above average, than an average center field with his range and athleticism, making him an awesome trade option as we’d have several high caliber players at positions that just don’t have many high caliber talents. But I’m sure we’d all be happy enough if he was in the corners as well….

      • mtt says:

        Ryan Braun can’t even play an average LF.

        • Mattchu12 says:

          Yeah…… I hope you’re joking.

          • Mattingly's Love Child says:

            No, he’s telling the truth. Look up his stats, Fangraphs.com.

            If you really live in Alaska, then I know you aren’t regularly going to games in Milwaukee, so you can’t claim the eyes and the stats don’t match.

          • Meh, Braun’s not a Manny/Bay/Dunn level disaster, but he’s nothing special out there. His career LF UZR is -4.7. As he ages, he’ll become worse and worse, most likely.

          • mtt says:

            His UZR/150 is -3.1 this year, so he’s not terrible, but it doesn’t bode well for his ability to play center field. I’m not sure why you think he’s such a great fielder, “range and athleticism” do not come to mind when watching him out there either.

            • Mattchu12 says:

              Well, I really do live in Alaska, and I can honestly say that I’ve never seen Braun play in person. But I have seen him play on TV, and he looks like a great outfielder and what I’ve read indicates the same thing.

              Ned Yost talked about how Braun would likely win a gold glove someday in left field, and Ed Sedar said Braun covered more ground than 90% other left fielders, which sounds like a good thing if he were to play center field.

              He was second in range factor last season among left fielders, and from what Brewers fans tell me, he gets better all the time. I know his UZR is down, but I’m taking those word of mouth pieces into mind as well.

              • Ned Yost talked about how Braun would likely win a gold glove someday in left field

                He probably will. Lots of guys win Gold Gloves because they’re just kinda-good fielders but really good hitters. That’s why Gold Gloves, just like most other baseball awards, are really dumb tools for player evaluation. Because the majority of baseball writers are really dumb tools.

                and Ed Sedar said Braun covered more ground than 90% other left fielders, which sounds like a good thing if he were to play center field.

                Ed Sedar lied to you. Don’t take it too bad, he works for the Brewers, he was probably lying to you to try and boost Ryan Braun’s confidence. It’s what first base coaches are supposed to do.

                • Mattchu12 says:

                  Lol, well, I still love the idea of having that guy in our lineup, but he was just one example. Grady Sizemore, Justin Upton, Chris Young, any one of those high caliber yet young bats are what I’m looking for. Not a thirty two year old starting pitcher, which was my whole point that got some how stretch into a Montero debate, a Joba debate, and now a debate about Braun’s defensive abilities.

                • “Grady Sizemore, Justin Upton, Chris Young, any one of those high caliber yet young bats are what I’m looking for.”

                  Chris Young?

                  CHRIS YOUNG?!?!??!?!

                  MULTIPLE INTERROBANGS?!??!?!?!??!?!??!


                • Mattingly's Love Child says:

                  Mattchu12, you can’t get any of those guys. (well except for Young, who has become a complete disaster that I’d want no part of)

                  We’d all want one of those type of guys on the Yankees. They aren’t available for any price. They are cheap and performing at very high levels. I agree 100% that those types of players would help the Yankees quite a bit, but they are just aren’t reasonable.

                  Joba/Montero have chances to be similar type players, which is why you don’t part with them readily.

                  If you could get Braun or Upton for Montero you do it in a cocaine heartbeat.

                • Mattchu12 says:

                  Are you telling me if the Giants called, and you were the Brewers GM, and they offered your Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, that you wouldn’t give up Ryan Braun? I know I would. Especially on a team where pitching prospects are far and few between.

                  NYY – Braun.
                  MIL – Cain, Sanchez.
                  SF – Swisher, Montero, Jackson, Coke.

                  I don’t think that would be too crazy of a trade for any of these teams.

                • Mattchu12 says:

                  Hell, if he’d accept it, I’d even be willing to trade Teixeira the Giants and keep Montero, just pay the difference between Braun and Teix’s deal so it’s the same on our books as if we kept Teix, but the Giants don’t have to take on his mega deal. There is only one year difference between the two contracts.

                • Mattingly's Love Child says:

                  That would be a great trade for the Yankees and could be a good one for the Brewers (if Mat Gamel can play any LF).

                  But that doesn’t work so well for San Fran. They’re straddling the line of win now or rebuild. Take away 2 of their good young pitchers and replace it with 2 league average major leaguers and a couple of prospects….San Fran says no friggin way.

                • Mattchu12 says:

                  I would have left Gamel at third base and moved Weeks to the outfield like Baseball America suggests, using Hardy at 2B and Escobar at SS.

                  I have also thought trading Joba and Jackson for Braun wouldn’t be the worst move ever for us, though I like the idea of sending Joba/Hughes to the Brewers and adding Hardy to our team. Use Jeter in the outfield.

                  NYY – Braun, Hardy
                  MIL – Joba, Cain, Sanchez
                  SF – Teixeira, Swisher, Jackson, Coke

                  I bet they’d be big time contenders in the NL West with:

                  C – Molina
                  1B -Teixeira
                  2B – Uribe/Aurillia
                  3B – Sandoval
                  SS – Renteria
                  LF – Swisher
                  CF – Jackson
                  RF – Rowand

                  They could even flip Fred Lewis and Randy Winn for a second baseman to replace Uribe/Aurillia or bring in another starter? They would still have a good rotation in Lincecum, Johnson, Zito, Sadowski, and Coke?

                • Mattingly's Love Child says:

                  Umm no. Sorry that rotation for the Giants doesn’t work. Johnson is most likely done. Zito is still a disaster most of the time. Sadowski is a 26 year old fringe prospect, and Coke is not a major league starter.

                  As for the rest of that trade…just no.

                • I Remember Celerino Sanchez says:

                  Mattchu21, the Giants, who don’t have an infinite budget, would never trade two cheap pitchers and take back Swisher’s contract (10:$6.75M, 11:$9M,
                  12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)).

                  And the Yanks would never trade Teixeira (nor would the Giants take on the contract).

                • Mattchu12 says:

                  Lol @ Mattingly’s Love Child, just dreaming!

                  IRCS, in a sense, they’d be taking on Braun’s deal not Teixeira’s. And it is really more of a pipedream than a real suggestion. My real Braun suggestion would be Joba for Braun straight up, maybe add Jackson.

                • JMK says:

                  I’m not sure if you’re trolling (and if so, my kudos) or are completely insane.

              • Mattingly's Love Child says:

                His UZR/150 last year was -3.4, and that is strongly based on his range. So he was a little below average last year.

                It’s like the whole Jeter is a good shortstop argument. He’s smooth, he plays hard, he works hard, doesn’t make a lot of errors, so everyone assumes he’s good. But when you look at the advanced metrics, they don’t add up.

                Braun moved from 3B to LF last year, I’m sure his coaches talked up his abilities, because they wanted him to be confident in the move.

          • I Remember Celerino Sanchez says:

            His UZR150 the last two seasons has been -3.5. So, yes, he is a below average left fielder.

      • Mattingly's Love Child says:

        Umm no. He doesn’t have good range. His UZR/150 is -3.1, and that is in LF. It would be considerably worse in CF….

        And there is NO chance the Brewers trade him at this point. He’s still young and cheap for several more years.

  13. E-ROC says:

    I wonder what the asking price is for Roy Halladay. How does compare to the Johan Santana and Dan Haren trades? I have curiosity about what Halladay could do in a Yankee uniform, especially this year. However, I’m willing to ride out with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. I like mixture of the rotation of veterans and young players. Plus, the rotation probably doesn’t need another long term contract with CC and Burnett locked in for a while.

    The Yanks will probably make a small trade for a reliever, possibly a starter. Maybe they’ll find an upgrade over Ransom, if they are determined to keep Ramiro Pena in AAA.

  14. Frank says:

    If the Yanks are actually considering trading Joba, Montero and other(s) for Halladay, and we really don’t know if they are, why not offer those same players for Haren? I realize Haren is not rumored to be on the block, but who knows? Often, trades that happen come out of nowhere and are never part of the rumor mill. Why not ask what it would take to get Haren? The worst the D-Backs could say is he’s off limits

    • Thomas A. Anderson says:

      Haren is the best pitcher in the league right now and Brandon Webb is injured.

      They aren’t trading him. You’d have to give up even more to get Haren and that just isn’t worth it, as good as he is.

  15. UNION YES. says:

    Reds are looking for an OF. Maybe we can package up a deal for Harang. Swisher for Harang? Melky package?

  16. Moshe Mandel says:

    Someone made this point above, but it got stuck in this tiny comment at the end of a thread, and I thought it needed to be reiterated.

    One of Roy Halladay’s top comps for the last three seasons and for the balance of his career is Mike Mussina. I just looked at the numbers, and they are startlingly similar. Now, Moose pitched well for the Yankees, especially in those first three years. However, they never won a championship with him despite initially adding him to a stacked, can’t miss rotation. I highly doubt that Yankees fans would give up Joba, Montero, and anyone else not named Hughes for Mussina.

    Nobody over the age of 30 is worth that much. Halladay is likely the second best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 years, but he is really no better than Moose was when he joined the Yankees, and I doubt Yankees fans would be satisfied with Roy if they traded the farm for him and he gave them what Moose gave. (Not to diminish Moose, I was a big fan, and thought it ended being a solid contract).

    • RAB poster says:

      I would not give up Montero, but for Moose in his prime I’d give up the prospects we’re discussing here, yes.

      Not Joba and Hughes, only one of the two.

      • Moshe Mandel says:

        I’m talking about Montero. If I said to those people willing to trade Montero, Joba, A-Jax, and one other top guy not named Hughes the day after the trade that Halladay would exactly replicate Mussina’s Yankee career, many of them would not be pleased with the trade. Moose was very good, but you expected more than one season with an ERA plus over 130 over the life of his initial Yankee contract. The point is, Halladay’s ace type performance is in no way guaranteed. He also has had significantly more injury issue up to this point than Moose had.

      • Chris V. says:

        Why? Do you not reasonably believe that Montero and Joba over the next 5-7 years will be as valuable as Moose was in his yankees years?

        Per Fangraphs Moose WAR from 2002-2008 was 31.1. Thats very good but isnt there a good chance joba and montero beat that handily?

        • Chris V. says:

          and at much less cost

        • RAB poster says:

          There’s a chance, but how high?

          Do you have Halladay’s WAR?

          • Chris V. says:

            Well I have no idea what Halladay’s WAR will be going forward which is why i used Mussina as a comp.

            Last year Halladay’s WAR was 7.6. Mussina had only one year over 6 though with the yankees.

            • RAB poster says:

              I know the numbers are similar, but Halladay is a better pitcher than Moose.

              We have no idea how he’ll be but I’ll be willing to bet (at least, this is the most likely scenario) that neither Hughes are Joba become Halladay, a potential HOF’er. And I like them both.

              • I’ll be willing to bet… that neither Hughes are Joba become Halladay, a potential HOF’er.

                You keep saying this, and I want to take issue with it.

                The fact that Joba or Hughes won’t “become” Halladay doesn’t mean that we should trade Joba or Hughes for Halladay. The fact that Halladay is currently a better pitcher than what Joba or Hughes are likely to become doesn’t mean that our team is made better by swapping Joba or Hughes for Halladay.

                Because they don’t award titles based on how many Future HoFers you have on your team. I can argue that even though Halladay now is better than whatever Joba or Hughes will ever become, we’re still a better team if we don’t trade for Roy Halladay, because Joba/Hughes/whomever else we have to trade for Halladay allow us to have good, if not Halladay-level, production at a tiny price, allowing us to spend more money elsewhere (like, say, to sign Mark Teixeira with last winter, or to sign Jason Bay with this winter).

                Or, similarly, how much easier it would be for the Jays to be a better team by having Joba in Halladay’s slot, pitching slightly worse but for millions less, allowing THEM to spend more money to fix the rest of their team and be a stronger divisional opponent.

                The totality of whether or not we should make the deal is way more complex than “Will Joba ever be as good as Halladay?” Even if he’s never as good as Halladay, he still probably presents us with our most optimal roster construction permutations, both now and going forward.

                • RAB poster says:

                  I have come to the conclusion now, after years of saying, “It costs too much money to get player X” then seeing us get said player, that money means absolutely nothing to the Yankees.

                • I have come to the conclusion now, after years of saying, “It costs too much money to get player X” then seeing us get said player, that money means absolutely nothing to the Yankees.

                  Were that true, then Mike Cameron would be patrolling CF right now, and Cody Ransom would have just been promoted weeks ago for the first time ever this year following our opening day UTI Mark DeRosa’s injury.

                  Oh, and Andy Pettitte would be auditioning for the Astros, because our 5th starter would be Derek Lowe.

                • RAB poster says:

                  If they really, really wante someone, the Yankees could get them.

                • Mattingly's Love Child says:

                  Why didn’t the Yankees do that? Cashman is the suxor!!!111!!!!!!!

                • RAB poster says:
                  If they really, really wante someone, the Yankees could get them

                  The historical record disagrees with you.

              • currambayankees says:

                Hughes and Joba may not become Halladay but I am willing to bet that during their combined careers they will surpass Halladay’s stats all around. I’d rather have two good youngsters with great potential then one aging vet past his prime and headed into his decline years. If we were getting Halladay at 25-29 then that would be a different story but were not and short term gain which is probably 2-4yrs, if that, is not worth the loss of kids with great potential who can give us 10-12 years plus. Not to mention the potential of Ajax and Montero which some want to include.

    • Rob in CT says:

      Great post, Moshe. I agree. I liked Moose a lot, and often defended him from the other Yankees fans I know (which tells you a lot about how Mooose was perceived by at least a portion of the fan base). But he definitely lost a tick or two… which makes perfect sense ’cause he was 32. His decline was actually reasonably good – Halladay might not be so fortunate.

      Even saying that, I think I would be willing to (if I were Cashman) trade for him using a package centered around ONE of the “untouchables” but NOT two of them. I’d probably part with Joba or Hughes before I parted with Montero. So maybe something like Hughes + Ajax + two lesser guys. Toronto probably doesn’t take that.

  17. MattG says:

    1. Montero’s trade value right now will never be higher. It is impossible to imagine that he can actually live up to the expectations being pushed onto him. You tell everyone he is untouchable, but if someone wants to give you something on the basis that he is Gabby Hartnett in his prime, you take that trade.

    2. Halladay doesn’t qualify. His age is irrelevant. He is signed for 1 and 1/2 years, and he will not decline appreciably in that time frame. There is no positive gained in giving a 34 year-old baseball player guaranteed money. You trade for him for 400 IP, and that is all.

    Yankees best offer for Halladay: Romine, Jackson, and one of Brackman, Betances, or McAllister.

    The Blue Jays probably wouldn’t even take that, and I wouldn’t even offer it. I don’t see him becoming a Yankee.

  18. I have a feeling that Roy Halladay will not land in the Bronx. Aside from that, I’ve really got very little to say on the situation. If it’s the right package, the Yankees should make the deal. However, Montero should most definitely be held onto and for good reason. If a deal gets done, I’ll be happy. If one doesn’t get made, I’ll be happy.

  19. Kiersten says:

    What are everyone’s thoughts on Mulder? I know he has been injured and hasn’t been any good in a few years, but it might be worth giving him a shot as it seems we are in dire need of a 5th starter (not to mention he wouldn’t cost any prospects).

    • Mattingly's Love Child says:

      He struggled in the NL Central, granted very much injured. But he’ll probably be a lesser version of him self even if he’s 100% healthy. Not good enough for surviving the AL Beast. I’d pass.

    • Meh, sure, whatevs. Don’t hold your breath, though.

      Speaking of injured starters rehabbing… I wonder how much money Ben Sheets would want to sign a Jon Leiber/Octavio Dotel/Sergio Mitre 1+1 rehab deal? Now’s the perfect time to pounce on that dormant story.

      Add Ben Sheets and Aroldis Chapman to the arsenal. Daddy likey.

      • Mattingly's Love Child says:

        I could get into that.

        But only if you promised to move Sheets to pitch the 8th to be the bridge!11!!!!!!!11!

  20. JohnnyC says:

    Cashman should really concentrate his efforts on making good on developing the full potential of guys like Joba and Hughes. There’s more gold in them thar hills than in the magic bullet of a Halladay pipe dream. Maybe that starts with actually getting them some decent coaching at the major league level. The best mid-season acquisition the team could make would be a really effective pitching coach.

  21. Esteban says:

    Stupid Hypothetical: If you knew trading Joba and Jesus for Roy Halladay would guarantee a World Series this season (I know, that’s impossible to guarantee anything) would you do it?

    I guess it’s sort of the Hanley Ramirez-Josh Beckett thing. Maybe the Sox are better off in the long term with Hanley, but not one Red Sox fan would take that trade back.

    Are we sure were not valuing potential too much? As Rob Neyer likes to say, TNSTAAPP. I love Joba and Phil Hughes, and I’m not sure I would trade them or Jesus for Halladay, but I don’t think any player should be absolutely untouchable.

    • RAB poster says:

      Depends. Do we know if trading them wil cost us more than 1 championship in the future? If not, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

      • Chris V. says:

        Again Beckett is not a good comp. Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Verlander are similar not 32 year old Roy Halladay. The Comp for him is Yankees Mike Mussina, who entered a loaded Yankees rotation and did not lead yanks to a ws ring

    • I guess it’s sort of the Hanley Ramirez-Josh Beckett thing. Maybe the Sox are better off in the long term with Hanley, but not one Red Sox fan would take that trade back.

      I bet you many of them would.

      • Esteban says:

        Well, I went to college in Boston, and I asked that question to probably dozens on Red Sox fans, and not one of them said they would take back the trade. Mine might be a SSS, but I’ll take my highly unscientific poll to have some significance.

      • Chris says:

        Theo probably would, considering I’m pretty sure that he was against the trade.

        Of course, he was busy cavorting in an ape costume instead of being GM. (and this is the model of how to run a franchise?)

    • Kiersten says:

      Hypothetically speaking, most definitely.

      One strong point from Abraham’s blog that really hits close to home: Jeter, Posada, and Mo aren’t going to be the same for much longer. Everyone’s talking about the future and these great prospects, but there are probably only 2 or so seasons left with this core of our team.

      But yes, I would take a risk on the future to win a WS this year.

  22. JohnnyC says:

    Beckett was 25 when the Sox traded for him. That’s a long, long way from 32.

    • Rob in CT says:

      And even so I bet you can make a statistical argument that the Marlins “won” that trade. Of course, at the time Hanley Ramirez didn’t look like a superstar (tools, but not results yet) and Lowell looked done.

  23. Kingjoe793 says:

    Would a package like this be interesting Joba, Romine, melancon, and brackman for Halladay

    • RollingWave says:

      this sort of package would make enough sense. but you figure they won’t trade in the division unless blown away

  24. Walsh says:

    2 words regarding the perpetual insanity surrounding the Joba discussion: “Zach Gronike” http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5883

  25. I’ll give you the biggest reason we shouldn’t trade for Roy Halladay: His real first name.


    Harry Leroy Halladay. Ugh, that’s brutal. Cue the Dueling Banjos.


  26. Alex says:

    I would trade Joba, Melancon, McAllister, Romine, and Nova/Betences (sp?) for Halladay. Dont know if the Jays would or not. I would rather keep Jackson. Our outfield needs fresh legs.

  27. Larry says:

    How does everyone on here think Joba is going to be a front-of-the rotation starter?

    Just because he’s young still?

    He cannot hit 94 anymore.

    That injury has permanently messed him up.

    Trade Joba+others for Halladay in a HEARTBEAT!

    • Observer283 says:

      But Larry he has occassionally hit 94. He has occassionally hit 96. The problem is he isn’t doing it consistently. Its just too early to tell if Joba will never regain his velocity, or if he is just suffering threw a mechanics driven slump.

      Remeber Phil Hughes last year? It seemed like he would never hit 92 MPH ever again. But he improved his leg strength over the season and was throwing harder as a starter before he started throwing really hard out of the pen.

      Another poster in an early thread wrote about how Justin Verlander lost a lot of velocity last year (probably because he pitched a lot more innings the year before than he had last year). Now the velocity is back and Verlander is back. Do you think the Tigers are glad they didn’t view him as washed up?

      Do you think the Cardinals wish that they didn’t trade Dan Haren?

      Just too soon for this comment.

  28. kenthadley says:

    Forget Halladay….we aren’t getting him for the same reasons we didn’t get Santana…..Cashman feel (rightly) it isn’t worth both the players and the salary….plus we signed 2 top of the rotation starters this past year……Halladay to the Yanks is a media dream……if anything, we’ll go after somebody for depth…..saw Ian Snell mentioned a few places…..know nothing about him besides up and down in Pitt, and lights out in AAA……is he worth a gamble or is he AAAA?

  29. Soxhater says:

    Halladay is better than Chamberlain, now and for the next 5 years. Joba looks more like a closer than a frontline starter, lets not be ignorant. he has no control more often than not and he might not always have his velocity to get by on.
    Montero is tearing up single A, is that really something to be excited about? i dont think so. and from what i read he’ll be lucky to translate into a catcher at the major league level.

    If its that cheap to get halladay, then do it.

  30. Soxhater says:

    doesnt mean anything until he gets to the mlb and hits major leaguers. there are plenty of players hiting well in AA, does that make them valueable, i think everyone forgets that prospects are ranked on what people think they will become, not what they are. Also if he isnt a catcher when he gets there, where does he play? tex is playing first for the rest of his natural born life. theres no flexability there.

    • Doug says:

      of course, it’s all based on potential. but the potential is there for him to have a big bat in the majors.

      but like you said, there’s the other half of the equation: where’s he gonna play? because there isn’t a non-yankee scout who believes he’ll end up a catcher. or if he does, it’ll be out of the yankees stubbornness to move him and he’ll be very much below average. i’ve been saying LF but not sure how realistic that is as he’s have to cover a lot of ground out there.

  31. Soxhater says:

    I agree he could be a huge bat, i just think that given what has been agreed on ( that he wont be a catcher unless it hurts the team ) Hes a tradable asset. Im happy keeping him if it comes down to that but if he stops the yanks from getting Halladay and the bosox get him, i cant say ill be happy. What do you think about Chamberlin?

  32. Simon B. says:

    Yes, Montero could be awesome, but let’s consider a few things.

    1. He’s far away. I doubt the Yankees are going promote him anytime soon now when he can’t play any position at a near-major league level. At best, he may be a September callup in 2010.

    2. He’s hyped above what he should be. This is my opinion of course, but I don’t think he deserves as high as he was put on the BA rankings lately.

    3. The Yankees are stocked with catchers.

    4. Firstbase is occupied for 8 years, so he can’t really move to any other position except a very long shot in maybe one of the corner-outfield positions.

    Montero may be the quintessential trade bait. To summarize, the Yankees have no easy place for him, and he may be at the peak of his stock. He may also be at the beginning, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he slows down a little pretty soon.

    Joba and Hughes are major-league ready, and the Yankees frankly need them. Yeah, Halladay would be better this year, and maybe next, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Joba starts to exceed Halladay in value very soon. I’m still not sure about Hughes.

  33. [...] at RAB, a few of us were having a spirited conversation about Peter Abraham’s suggestion that the [...]

  34. Lanny says:

    Cashman doesn’t have the balls to put Halladay on this team and make it the odds on favorite for a title this yr and next. He doesn’t make trades like this. He looks for teams junk or someplace where they want to dump salary.

    He also doesn’t know how to rate his own prospects. That means hes scared to get burnt and trade an all star. But that also assumes hes developing any all stars which the system has been devoid of since Jeter. Which is probably the biggest reason we are ringless the past 8 yrs.

  35. JeffG says:

    Personally although I’d love to see Halliday on the club I’d never do it if Phil or Joba were involved. I think both have shown that they can amount to front line starters. If traded to the Jays we’ll have to face one of them for years and both should be very tough once they get a little seasoning. Just not worth it.
    On the other hand Montero is someone I’d package if the Yanks feel he can’t stay behind the plate. If the Jays think they are owed more for a year and a half of Hallady I just hope he goes to the NL.

  36. [...] First Half Review: Middle infielders / Giving up something to get something [...]

  37. adeel says:

    Isn’t there a way we can get Boston to overpay for Halladay (like Seattle for Bedard)? Buckholtz, Lester, Bard, and Ellsberry for Halladay!

    Seriously, Halladay has been the best pitcher in the majors over the past 2-3 years; but that doesn’t mean he will CONTINUE to be. If Riccardi trades this guy just at the right time, he can get a desparate team to give up a lot for him; something the Yankees should not do.

    The Yankees should not do this trade right now because he is so hyped up right now, anyone who does this deal is going to overpay. I would try to see what player I could get for Montero right now. I understand his projection is utterly amazing, but we would be selling high, not low (which is what we would be doing by trading Joba and/or hughes right now)….

    We should concentrate on getting a solid 8th inning guy (wish the Rockies would friggin loose so we could get Street)… and a starting pitcher not named halladay or Bedard; just someone who is going to give you length.

    OT: what happend to the Joba innings Cap? Wasn’t he supposed to get shut down by August? Do we not care anymore?

Leave a Reply

You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

If this is your first time commenting on River Ave. Blues, please review the RAB Commenter Guidelines. Login for commenting features. Register for RAB.