Open Thread: Just a few more hours…
By…until nothing happens. Yes, free agents are free to sign with other teams at midnight EST, but that means little at this point. Maybe we’ll start to see rumors with dollar amounts attached to them, but that’s about it. Otherwise, we’ll continue to play the free agent waiting game.
The main reason we don’t see much activity early on is that teams have yet to make arbitration decisions on their players. That happens on December 1, so there’s still some time left. We sometimes see cases of teams signing a Type A free agent before his former team gets a chance to offer him arbitration, but those cases are rare. Most of the time a signing team wants to see what the former team will do.
The only cases in which you’ll see a Type A player sign before the arbitration deadline is if his former team is sure to make the offer. Torii Hunter, for instance, signed with the Angels before the Twins offered him arbitration, but the offer was a given. There was no way that the Twins weren’t offering Hunter arbitration, so the Angels used that to their advantage and signed Hunter quickly.
Will a team make a similar move this off-season? I’m not so sure. But, with the arbitration deadline still looming, teams will be more reluctant to sign a free agent. Chances are we won’t see a major move until then. In other words, the running of the free agents at midnight is just like pitchers and catchers reporting. We look forward to it, but it really doesn’t mean anything.
This is your open thread for the evening. The Devils play at 8. For the rest of us there’s football, Miami at Carolina. But, more importantly, you can now get all of our posts via Twitter. Just follow @RABFeed. That’s just the RSS feed. The @RiverAveBlues feed will remain the same.
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Spring Training Countdown
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People with a more in depth knowledge of WAR.
Phil Hughes: 2.2
Mo: 2.0
How?
Because of his time starting.
Wow. He made 7 starts and pitched to a 5.45 ERA. I never thought Joba should go to the bullpen because SP are so much more valuable but I am surprised that those 7 starts had that much value.
Hughes:
a) threw 19.2 more IP
b) had a better K rate
c) had a better HR rate
That’s why he worth two more runs than Mo. Two runs is a pretty small difference.
I guess that kind of speaks to the stuff before of a combination of scouting and advanced metrics. I do not think anyone in baseball would have taken Hughes over Mo last year but I guess technically Hughes was ever so slightly more valuable
It does speak to that, but it also speaks to the greatness of Mo. A ball in play off him is less valuable than a ball in play off another reliever, because when a ball is in play off Mo it’s usually weakly hit.
That’s an interesting angle. I’ve never considered that.
Hughes ERA as a reliever was lower than Mo’s, so it’s not just a FIP thing.
Phil Hughes 2009
Starting: 0.18 WAR
Relieving: 2.09 WAR
Also:
“Do not place undue trust in WAR for pitchers. First off, pitcher defense and hitting aren’t included. This should be righted ASAP. Then there are the more nuanced issues like how leverage is accounted for and the conversion of FIP to runs.”
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....ls-of-war/
And, just to beat CB to the punch, Mo is unfairly treated by FIP.
Why does that happen?
Because while Mo does miss bats, Mo’s really kinda a sinkerballer, for all intents and purposes. He’s like Wang/Halladay/Webb in that he doesn’t really try to make you miss the pitch as much as he gives you a pitch you can’t possibly do anything but weakly ground out on. His cutter is never on the sweet spot of the bat.
So, FIP (and even tRA) will kinda underrated him all the time, because he induces contact (which you generally want to avoid as a pitcher) but his contact creates outs rather than hits.
Ahhh gotcha.
On the topic of Hughes, does anyone know for sure when Hughes’ arbitration clock started? What is the rule on what a player needs to do in a season for it to count as 1 of his 6 years of arbitration eligibility?
His first stint in the majors was in 2007, so that would mean that he is under the Yankees control until 2012 or 2013?
It’s not 6 seasons in the majors, it’s 6 years worth of service time (in days).
Time spent on the ML roster or ML disabled list counts as service time. If you check Cot’s Contracts, it’ll list service time for each player. It’s listed as years.days, with 180 days in a season.
Cot’s lists Hughes at 1 year, 125 days, but the numbers haven’t been updated to include the 2009 season yet. Just a rough estimate, but Hughes is probably at about 2 years, 100 days.
2013 is the earliest he’ll be able to reach free agency. If he spends more than 100 or so days in the minors between now and tehn, it’ll be 2014.
i see the yankees are taking the ‘arod opt out’ route with the swisher rumors.
http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/.....FTA0EY6tlL
Adam Wainright losing the Cy to Lincecum proves one thing to me. The Cardinals should have left him in the bullpen. Here you had a WS winning closer with a bulldog/linebacker/bull in a china shop mentality (he must have, all the great ones do) and you decide to “turn him into a starter” and he can’t even win the Cy Young. Clear fail by the Cardinals. In fact Wainwright was the closer for one month in 2006 and they win it all. Since he’s been a starter, and they haven’t won shit.
/B-Jobbers /Kruk’d/MSM’d
With a dynamite 2009 rotation of Cain-Zito-BigUnit-Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants should have moved Tim Lincecum to the bullpen, where he could have been Mariano Rivera Pt. II. With the ability to shorten games like that, plus those four quality starters, they would have won the NL West by a mile.
/B-Jobbers /Kruk’d/MSM’d
Yanks ought to consider putting AJ Burnett and CC in the bullpen as relievers. Imagine that bridge to Mo?! And lefty/righty match ups can be played. With existing corps, would shorten each game to 4 innings!
/Ibid’d
My top 10 moments for the Yankees this decade–feel free to add your own
http://www.puristbleedspinstri.....e-my-take/
Now I have to decide if I’m in a masochistic mood or optimistic mood tonight. The former means I’ll watch basketball (Syracuse) the latter, the Devils
‘CUSE!!!
Did anyone see sucka got no juice’s reasoning for voting Wainwright over Lincecum? He basically used Wainwright’s last 18 starts vs. Lincecum’s last 8 starts as his tipping point. Way to use completely arbitrary and inconsistent points to make your decision Kenny-boy. While the Grienke-Lincecum are a sing of progress, there’s still a lot of work to be done.
Anyone know if there is going to be a DVD collection with all the playoff games on it not just the world series??
…So are we all watching Syracuse or something? Dead thread, man.
I’m not, I have no idea what sport you are talking about. Wait until this Friday or Saturday, the tumbleweeds will really be rolling.
Im Watching Baseball
Thursday is the best night for TV. Community, Parks and Rec, Office, 30 Rock.
It’s always sunny in Philadelphia, the League.
The Devils online.
Juan Miranda is flat out raking down in the DWL. He hit another homer tonight.
yea i sawwww that there airing the game on espn deportes.
I’ve got it on now. Thanks, bro.
No problem
Well, that sucks.
http://www.baseball-intellect......d-to-know/
BI’s breakdown on Aroldis Chapman. Covers some familiar ground, but add some interesting stuff on his delivery. Good read.
BTW-Anyone who gives this kid 50 mil needs his head examined. He’s extremely raw, I’d put him in Betances/Brackman territory. High upside, but far, far away from being a MLB pitcher.
I don’t totally disagree. I do believe that no one should give him 50 mil. I’d say 25 would be the highest of the high offer.
Now, he is a professional pitcher coming to America to continue his professional career. Guys like A-Brack and D-Bet came to the Yankees to start their professional career.
While he is raw, he has a leg up based on experience.
Betances came out of HS, so no disagreement there. But Brackman went to a very good College in NC State. Is Cuba that far ahead of a good US college program? I’ll bet the college has equipment and video facilities that the Cubans can only dream of.
I’m willing to bet that the Cuban Sports Program is more advanced than the North Carolina State University athletic department.
Seconded. The NC State baseball program is what, the #3 priority of one athletic department of one branch of one state’s college system?
The baseball program of Cuba is arguably more significant to the government of that nation than… anything.
Have either of you two ever been to Cuba? It’s a very, very poor country.
As I mentioned a bit lower. Castro loves him some baseball and he is one man in Cuba that is not very, very poor.
Many very very poor countries are very very poor because they take the little wealth they have and spend it on frivolities… like national baseball programs. Because things like national baseball programs create national pride and national pride can quell public resentment that may make you want to overthrow your government because you’re so poor.
Bread and circuses, my friend.
Funny, because in my English class just today, we referenced the origins of “bread and circuses.”
+1 on TSJC’s point
In general I would agree about college pitchers, but Brackman threw less than 150 innings in his entire college career.
Also, Cuba takes it’s baseball seriously so I don’t believe that they would have meager facilities for their national team.
When it comes down to it. Baseball is throwing a ball, catching a ball and hitting a ball.
Does NC State have better video facilities? Yepp(I think anyway).
DO they have better equipment? Eh, maybe not. Castro don’t fuck around with baseball.
AS far as coaching, talent, competition, etc.. I’d say, yes, Cuba is way ahead of a good college program.
Juan Miranda Got injured a player ran down the line and shoved Miranda and i think he hurt his wrist.
Damn Matt Carson. That’s why he’s a FORMER Yankee. Bastardo.
well, tomorrow, we will know who the Yankees plan on protecting from the Rule 5 draft. I think that is fairly big, not FA level big, but still important.
Argument from Cardinals fans:
Adam Wainwright deserved to win, he got the most first place votes.
Chris Carpenter got the fewest first place votes, but should have won because Will Carroll and Keith Law left them off the ballot.
Does anyone else see a problem with the complaining?
Well, after getting pwned by the Dodgers, Cardinals fans have nothing to do but complain haha.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.....ty_theorem
No ideal voting system exists. The Borda count employed by the BBWAA certainly has its flaws but so does every other system ever created.
OK, I got a question to get this thread a-cookin.
There are 4 oft-injured pitchers available this off season.
-Chien Ming Wang
-Rich Harden
-Ben Sheets
-Eric Bedard
Let’s assume the Yanks take a flyer on one. Pick which one you’d choose and tell us why.
The last three could theoretically pitch the entire year.
CMW would be available after the ASG at the earliest.
Mixed reports on Wang, some say as soon as late April.
True.
Flipside: the last three are free agents who can negotiate with all 30 teams for the best deal, meaning they’ll likely get either a contract worth more than 6M, or a multiyear commitment, or both. Wang cannot get any of those things if we choose to go to arb with him.
His Doc thinks he’ll be ready to pitch as early as late April.
My best guesses, ETA-wise:
Sheets: Mid-Feb when pitchers and catchers report
Harden: ditto
Bedard: Opening Day at the absolute earliest, May in all likelihood
Wang: May
sheets and harden arguably have the highest upside and they’re available earlier.
True.
Sheets probably has the higher upside (as a starter) and the better injury history, all things considered. Those should be the tiebreakers.
My choice would be Sheets. I’m not convinced Wang has anything left, Harden just breaks down too much and I’m starting to think the injuries are piling up with him. Bedard has a bad rep for being selfish, unwilling to pitch through injury and having a bad attitude. He’s a lefty Carl Pavano.
Most of Sheet’s injuries have been non-arm related. His latest injury is far less severe than TJ and most pitchers recover well from it, and I know Girardi loves Sheets. Seems like a good fit with almost as much upside as Harden.
Agreed on all counts. One addition:
Harden not only breaks down too much, but he gives you the least length of the three. Harden’s basically a 5 inning pitcher, Bedard is a 6 inning pitcher, Sheets goes 7.
Yeah, there were whispers that the reason the Yanks passed on Sheets and went for AJ is they weren’t thrilled with answers when they interviewed him on his off field regimen (read that ‘work ethic’). But in the right environment, which I think the Yanks provide, you could get the best out of him. If not, it’s a 1 year deal and you let him walk next year.
Yeah, there were whispers that the reason the Yanks passed on Sheets and went for AJ is they weren’t thrilled with answers when they interviewed him on his off field regimen (read that ‘work ethic’).
Wait, Ben Sheets is Dominican?
Baton-Rouge Louisiana.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....yerId=4571
I rest my case.
Sheets is from Louisiana? Hmmmm… his gayness is probably what singlehandedly caused Hurricane Katrina.
Sincerely,
Religious Fundamentalist Idiots
Sheets, easy.
I’d say Sheets has the most up-side, so probably him.
However, CMW is my sentimental favorite, and I’ll be kind of upset if he isn’t back in Pinstripes next year.
Actually, I think Harden has more upside and is the better pitcher in a perfect world. But I also suspect Harden’s injuries are just piling up. He had a horrible 1st half (5.47 ERA at All Star break) and after a good 2nd half run was shut down in late September last year. He’s a smallish guy for a power pitcher, I just wonder if the injuries are all piling up.
I think you can’t ignore the inefficiency issues with harden either. The guy just can’t go deep into games, even in the NL central. We saw first-hand this season how much having starters that can throw into the 7th with regularity helps a team…I know Harden’s stuff is nasty, but…I just can’t get too excited about adding a guy that I expect to throw 5-6 innings an outing and miss a month :-/
So I’m not sure I consider him better-in-a-perfect-world than Ben Sheets. However, I could see Sheets getting 2 years from someone, or at least a solid bit of guaranteed money. Harden might be cheaper.
I don’t disagree, I posted this morning at TYU that I see if Harden would consider working out of the bullpen. I don’t believe he’ll ever hold up as a starter, he’s just not built for it and his DL history proves it.
I don’t know. I mean, he’s very talented. But…well I’ll take a line from TSJC:
Harden not only breaks down too much, but he gives you the least length of the three. Harden’s basically a 5 inning pitcher, Bedard is a 6 inning pitcher, Sheets goes 7.
I tend to agree with that. I think a healthy Sheets is more valuable because he’ll go deeper into games than Harden will more often than not.
Sheets. This is insane: Sheets’ K/BB ratio in 2004: 8.25. In 2006: 10.55. That’s ridiculous.
Over the last two seasons, Harden has made 51 starts over 289 IP, which is the most innings he’s pitched in back-to-back seasons since 2004-2005. Over this stretch, he struck out 352 hitters for a video game-like K/9 of 11.0 and a K/BB of 2.72. All of this was good for an ERA+ of 145 (3.05 ERA)!! When Harden is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the game.
http://nomaas.org/?p=317
I take Sheets, but Harden’s the better pitcher when healthy.
I guess it depends which stats you like. Harden’s got Sheets beat in career ERA+, but Sheets beats him in career tRA. FIP is 3.56 for Sheets to 3.58 for Harden.
Good point.
All three pitchers miss bats and rack up K’s. Sheets is the one of the three who also does not issue walks. That keeps his pitches per inning down and lets him go deeper into games.
Career K/9, BB/9, BB/K, Pitches/IP
Harden: 9.35, 3.93, 2.38, 16.7
Bedard: 8.77, 3.56, 2.46, 17.3
Sheets: 7.60, 1.97, 3.85, 13.7
In a landslide, Wanger.
That’s my own personal bias though.
Jeez, looks like I’m in the minority on this one.
Wanger is not done folks, you heard it here first.
-3 shoulder injuries
-1 foot injury that messed up his delivery
-His confidence has to be down after last year
-His secondary offerings were never anything special, so if he loses a few MPH off that sinker, he’s toast.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
-True
-True
-True
-Eh, he was working on that slider. Every year he improved on the K total.
I have faith in his work ethic, natural abilities and that devastating sinker grip that made his nail come clean off his finger. I believe in CMW.
The 8th inning should fix all that.
For Harden? SIGN ME UP!
I read your post at TYU about that. It makes a lot of sense for a guy like Harden, since he historically hasn’t given a lot of length as a starter.
The Cubs could have used him as a closer last year.
Yeah, it’s a pipe dream. He’ll never go for it. Starters make way more $.
Exactly. Good thought nonetheless.
FWIW, Harden has never made more than the $9M he made this year. For comparison, Kerry Wood will earn $10M, $10.5, and $11M in 2009-2011.
Quality starters that don’t have significant injury risks can make more than closers. I don’t know if that’s the case for someone like Harden.
Right, but you’d be asking Harden to set up, not close. We sort of have a closer.
I’m with you there. I really hope they hold on to Wang.
Care to rephrase that?
I really hope they hold on to
WangCMW.(Puts head down in shame)
… nah, too easy.
I sense sarcasm…
A little late to the party, but I’m taking Sheets. Harden has better pure stuff, but Sheets’ stuff isn’t anything to sneeze. Despite the injury, he’s one tough mofo. He won’t have any trouble in the AL or in a big city.
Yay for Timmy L.
He’s an AL pitcher stuck in a NL pitching system.
Question: What happens if a guy doesn’t file for free agency?
Then he loses the right to get a contract offer from anyone but his own team, I’d imagine.
Sheets by a mile. 2 year deal worth 13 Million + Incentives should be able to get it done.
In the vein of what The Artist said up above, but for other, less sexy buy low options:
–Noah Lowry
–Kelvim Escobar
–Justin Duchsherer
I’ve always liked Escobar but the dude is getting old.
Duchscherer has a lot of upside.
Yeah, I’d like to go with J-Dukes.
The depth pitcher problem is (and always is) a catch-22.
Duke is less risky than Lowry or Escobar, which makes him less likely to come here since someone else will offer him a starting gig.
Escobar and Lowry are risker than Sheets, but more signable for us and it’ll be harder for them to find jobs elsewhere.
Think Sergio Mitre.
This is easy: Duchscherer.
I like Escobar. It seems like he’s always killed the Yankees.
Although the 5.11 ERA in 116.1 IP doesn’t really support that…
I’m also a big J-Dukes supporter. He’d be perfect for 2010.
I kinda like the Escobar idea, if he has anything left.
Unfortunately we’d have to pay for the privilege of finding out.
Another question. Lets assume your roster is set with position players. You have 16 mil to spend on pitching this off season. You could go one of two ways-
-Sign John lackey to be your #2 starter, making AJ your #3 and have Hughes/Joba fight it out for the #5 spot. Take your chances with internal bullpen solutions.
or
-Sign Rafael Soriano AND Mike Gonzalez to be your setup men. Take your chances with Joba as your #4 and Hughes as your #5.
Which way do you go?
Of the two, I’d rather go with Lackey. I don’t trust Soriano and Gonzalez as much as I’d trust Lackey.
However, I’m not crazy about any of them.
Can I pass?
NO. You must answer or a moth will die in Egypt.
(Psssst, Matt: Give him the Kobayashi Maru.)
How much of that $16 million do Soriano and Gonzalez take up?
Either way I’d go with Lackey, as he is significantly better and more valuable than either of the relievers. I certainly expect the Yankees will need at least 6 starters this year, and while I know, not think, know that Joba and Hughes both belong in the rotation, they are both, no matter where they are, more valuable than Soriano and Gonzalez. It would really come down to, roster wise:
Lackey in the rotation, Joba/Hughes in the pen, and an extra fringe guy at the end of the pen
vs.
Joba and Hughes in the rotation, Soriano and Gonzalez in the pen, and one less of the Gaudin/Bruney/Coke guys at the (very) end of the pen.
Give me #1.
Counterargument:
Lackey’s 16M will be on the books for AT LEAST 4 years, more likely 5. Soriano and Gonzalez’s total 16M is a 2 or 3 year committment. Not only is Lackey a larger bust risk for that reason alone, he’s also a larger bust risk because there’s just one of him as opposed to two of Gonzalez/Soriano. And, moreover, a Lackey bust is much harder to move/eat than a Soriano or Gonzalez bust, due to the much smaller commitments. It’s like a diversified stock portfolio vs. sinking all your cash into one high-risk, high-reward hedge fund.
Furthermore, adding Soriano and Gonzalez stunts only the growth of a guy like Phil Coke or Chad Gaudin. Adding Lackey stunts the growth of one of the two most important members of our future championship contention master plan.
Lackey has had success in the AL as a starter, I’d take him.
I just think a staff, regardless of roles, including Lackey, Joba, Hughes, and a Bruney/Coke/Gaudin, etc. is better than Joba/Hughes/Soriano/Gonzalez.
I just think a staff, regardless of roles, including Lackey, Joba, Hughes, and a Bruney/Coke/Gaudin, etc. is better than Joba/Hughes/Soriano/Gonzalez.
The question is, even if you think that first staff is truly better than the second, which it might be, is it enough of an upgrade in overall talent to justify both the massively increased risk and the developmental delays it would create?
I don’t think the upgrade is remotely worth the drawbacks and risks.
I guess part of my picking the Lackey side is my pessimism for AJ making it thru a full season next year (3 in a row?), as well as the inherent risks with an aging Pettitte and Lackey, if he were to be signed as well.
Your concerns are valid.
However, I feel your chosen remedy for those concerns–signing John Lackey, a guy who ALSO has injury and decline red flags and who will require a 5 year, 80M contract–is even MORE risky than betting on AJ, Pettitte, Joba, and Hughes, all things considered.
JMHO.
In order of preference:
1.) Sign Rafael Soriano AND Mike Gonzalez to be your setup men. Take your chances with Joba as your #4 and Hughes as your #5.
2.) Take half of the 16M and have everybody who either suggested or preferred the John Lackey alternative killed. With the remaining 8M, collect Mike, Ben, Joe, a few of the RAB regulars, and Hank Steinbrenner and go on a two-week Vegas bender full of illegal amounts of alcohol, cocaine, bacon, strippers, and possibly a smidge of bestiality. Destroy the videotapes.
You can have me killed for like $20, so your Vegas binge might last a little longer.
Yeah, that’s my choice. You can tell me Lackey’s 3.9 WAR is higher than the other two guys combined, but it’s about how it effects the rest of the roster. I want Joba and Hughes both to have every opportunity to develop as starters, so I sign the 2 relievers.
If you’re only considering 2010, then signing Lackey is the better move. The problem is you won’t get him on a 1 year (or 3 year) deal.
Exactly.
And, I’m not even sure that he’s the better move just for 2010 alone. Gonzalez and Soriano in the pen with both of Joba/Hughes in the rotation can easily make the team MUCH better than Lackey in the rotation and one of Joba/Hughes in the pen.
Adding Lackey gives you one great starter, one good but young starter, and one great but young reliever. Adding Soriano and Gonzalez gives you one good but young starter, another good but young starter, and TWO great relievers.
And that’s assuming Lackey doesn’t regress or miss time next year.
With Pettitte bound to retire soon, I’d actually love Lackey on a 3 year deal.
I’m not holding my breath on the words “Lackey” and “three year deal” being anywhere in proximity to each other when he and his agent and some team hold a press conference in the next month or so.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Yeah I know. I’d still consider him at 4, but that’s unlikely as well.
John Lackey is a good idea… in the abstract.
In actuality, he’s just too risky.
Has anyone seen the FA class for next year why would we spend money on a high profiled guy this year when we need to re-sign jeter , then theirs mauer if hes available and then the pitchers in the 2011 class are just =O
It’s been discussed once or twice…
No way…
WE LANDED ON THE MOON!!!!
(Gasp)
Speaking of Soriano, and I say this without knowing about his full repertoire at the time, but why was he moved to the pen so quickly? He, at 22 started 8 games that weren’t terrible, and they moved him right to the pen? Maybe he’s only a 1.5 pitch pitcher and he was going to end up there anyway, but I’d like to know.
That’s a good question.
PitchFx says he throws FIVE pitches, three of them regularly, so it’s not a repertoire problem. And oddly, he’s adding more NEW pitches, not eliminating pitches… it’s curious.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitch.....position=P
Maybe John Kruk was running the Mariners back then? What a waste, who knows what he could have developed into as a starter.
Oh, and thanks for the answer. Of course now I’m even more intrigued.
USS Mariner thread on Soriano as a starter from 2006. I also came across a MiLB box score where he outdueled Brandon Webb (and Putz picked up the save). Moral of the story, the M’s screwed up.
http://ussmariner.com/2006/10/.....f-pitcher/
Yankees HotStove on YES.
Bob Lorenz just said that it was whispered that Swish is available, for the right deal of course. Am I late to the party on this one? I know “everyone” is available for the right deal but why would Cash whisper it if they wouldn’t seriously consider it?
Ben did a post on the whole ordeal earlier today.
Damn I missed it. Thanks.
No prob. Tons of people were wondering about this today.
(Including myself)
First comment? Impossible to get one of these in the postseason
This is the first comment on one of the LoHud posts today, this is why we all comment here on RAB, and proves the Guidelines are needed.
(for those who care the poster’s name was sadf)
He sounds like a sad fucker.
Batshit crazy idea, guys: Pay Rich Harden to be the 8th inning guy. Sure, this will never happen because he wants to be a starter and all, but hey, it’s fun to dream.
His stuff is awesome and he’ll no longer need those grueling 5-inning games!
Get it done, Cash$$$
And relievers never get injured, only starters, that’s why Joba belongs in the pen!!!
/msm’d
Genuine curiosity: What kind of contract would it take to convince Harden to give up starting and become Mariano’s set up man? I mean, the dude is only 27. What kind of money would you have to toss him to basically give up on the rest of his career as a starting pitcher?
I’ll say he doesn’t take the offer to be the 8th inning man for the Yanks for any AAV south of 13M. You’d have to give him AT LEAST 3/39 in order to intrigue him, and even that may not be enough.
My question is: What kind of a contract is he looking at as a starter this offseason to begin with? His ’09 salary was $7M. How much of a raise/multi-year commitment can he realistically expect to get?
If his idea is to take a one-year deal, re-establish his value by staying healthy and pitching like he can, then I wonder if he himself has confidence in his own durability.
Such a contract as you described would be almost 2x his last year’s paycheck, and there would be more of a realistic expectation on 70ish innings & 150+ ‘hopefully’ innings.
I mean, if he has another crack at starting, on a one-year deal somewhere, and breaks down, I think the trepidation, league-wide, will increase. These are things I would consider if I was him.
I mean, becoming Mariano’s set-up man, with an eye toward a few years from now when he retires to his crystalline cloud-palace, has got to be at least a little attractive. Becoming the power pitching closer of the Yankees, it’s not a bad paying gig, for much less annual stress on his body.
I mean, becoming Mariano’s set-up man, with an eye toward a few years from now when he retires to his crystalline cloud-palace, has got to be at least a little attractive.
No, not really, it doesn’t, not for a 27 year old guy who’s been starting his whole life. He’s not going to give up starting unless you just totally overwhelm him with wads and wads and wads of cash, because he’d be giving up wads and wads and wads of cash by moving from the starter career path to the reliever career path.
Consider this: John Lackey will probably get a 5 year 80M deal, just like AJ Burnett did.
Nobody, not even us, will ever give Mariano Rivera a 5/80, and he’s the best closer ever by miles and miles.
Whoops… bold FAIL. My bad.
Heh. I think i raised a similar figure amount awhilez back when I inquired into a Harden-Yankee fit. Harden’s just too young to give up the hope of having a 180 inning campaign that will fool some team to giving him a 4 year / 60 million dollar deal.
How about a Rafael Soriano? How much would it cost to get Soriano in town? 3 year-xx
Heh: WikiHacking is still funny, when it’s done well. Emphasis is mine:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Harden
Derek Lowe rumors are starting to pop up on MLBTR. Wren’s gonna need to wield some kind of magic in order to unload Lowe’s contract (3 year/ $45 mm). I didnt think Lowe was gonna pitch as inconsistent as he did. That’s looking to be one bad, short term contract.
You know what might be a real good landing spot for Lowe?
Back in LA. Makes the most sense. Lowe for Pierre? You give me your surplus, overpaid, diminishing outfielder for my surplus, overpaid, diminishing starting pitcher, and we both clear our logjams and plug our holes simultaneously?
That exchange makes sense. Dodgers could definitely take on Lowe’s contract, and Lowe pretty much made every start last season, so his struggles last season at least aren’t tied to injury.
Thing is , I sorta remember hearing stories in the ’09 off-season making Lowe out to be pining a return to the East Coast. The Braves would be sticking it to Lowe by trading him to the most non-East Coast city in the bigs.
Don’t get why Arte Moreno came out and said “He [Matt HollidaY] is not going to be an Angel” but then he says “You have to look at Bay. It’s a great bat. (He) has great makeup.” Dont tell me its Scott Boras, thats a dumb reason not to go after someone.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594