Nov
02

World Series coming back to the Bronx after Yanks drop Game Five

By

Our full recap will be up a little, so this will have to hold you over.

AJ Burnett completely crapped the bed, which had little to do with short rest and almost everything to do with the fact that he’s AJ Burnett. Phil Coke was somehow worse in garbage time. At least Al Aceves and Phil Hughes got some work in.

Cliff Lee wasn’t as good as he was in Game One, but he was still pretty good. The Yanks did their best to rally late, but fell just short. It was a valiant effort boys, now go get ‘em on Wednesday.

Oh, and the O”Neill Theory is in full effect.

364 Comments»

  1. Jamie says:

    Can we get an outline of the O’Neill theory for n00bs like myself? I know the jist of it i think

  2. dkidd says:

    we never quit

    and remember:

    phillies starter in game 6: our son
    phillies starter in game 7 (if it happens): a guy who wishes the season were over

    winning in the new house will be sweet

  3. JMK aka The Overshare says:

    Does anyone really think the Phillies can win three in a row with Martinez and Hamels/Happ pitching the next two? Really?

    Oh, and let’s stop pitching to Utley.

  4. Yanks 4 Life says:

    Everyone needs to relax.The Yanks took 2 out of 3 in Philly.
    That is a great job. Now we will celebrate at home in the Cathedral.

  5. Jake K. says:

    Even a mediocre start by Burnett and we probably win tonight. Or if Coke doesn’t shit the bed. Or Jeter doesn’t hit into a dp in the 9th. Oh well, we’ll mess up Pedro and take it at home.

  6. BigBlueAL says:

    ” AJ Burnett completely crapped the bed, which had little to do with short rest and almost everything to do with the fact that he’s AJ Burnett. ”

    And the Yankees paid how much for him….

  7. Brazilian Yankee says:

    I just hope all this faith you guys have in Pettitte on 3 days rest pays off.

  8. JackHammer says:

    I wish the douchebags on tv would look into the camera and say:
    “We have no idea how these games will turn out. baseball is the most unpredictable sport in the world. Don’t listen to a word we say.”

  9. Marc says:

    Can someone PLEASE tell me why they didn’t pinch run Pena for Matsui?! Ramino Pena coulda stolen 2nd, and then Jete wouldn’t have hit the double play.

  10. Rose says:

    I still stand by what I said earlier today when I felt we should have started Gaudin tonight to set up the rest of our pitchers on full rest. Now we have a 37 year old on 3 days rest…and CC for a 3rd time in a row on 3 days rest…and the last time he did that? He faced the Phillies in the first round and got shelled last year…

  11. Alex S says:

    I was do ready to go party in the streets tonight, maybe flip a car

  12. Hova says:

    Tex’s currency has run out. I understand he’s an amazing fielder but he has to get on base. At this point I rather see A-Rod hitting behind Damon. Johnny is a bulldog and will fight his way onto base. And Tex continues to fcuk up behind him.

  13. pete says:

    the nature of tonight’s game was frustrating, sure, but think of it this way: if somebody said, going into philly, that we’d win the pettitte/hamels and sabathia/blanton matchups, and lose the lee/burnett matchup, what would you have said? something along the lines of “that seems likely,” no?

  14. Lanny says:

    The time has come to hit Utley. make him uncomfortable. Move his feet. Its ridiculous now.

    Is Torre still managing?

  15. Joker, The says:

    So damn close…what a heartbreaker.

    Fatcessa is gonna be insufferable tomorrow.

  16. Rose says:

    Why was the ump squeezing the sides all game UNTIL we decided to rally…then all of the sudden 6 inches off the plate is a strike for the Yankees…

  17. Dela G says:

    we get this shit wednesday

  18. danny says:

    i missed the ending of the game, glad the yankees fought back till the end, i dont expect anything less from this team. damn you phil coke!

  19. Joe D. says:

    You know something, the trolls and bridge-jumpers are right.

    If only we had hitters that never make an out and pitchers that never give up a run, we’d have won this thing by now.

    This team sucks.

  20. BigBlueAL says:

    Oh by the way for everyone jumping on my ass for bringing up the amount of money we paid for Burnett I can only imagine the mocking everyone here would be doing towards the team that wouldve paid Burnett that amount of money whenever he shits the bed like he did tonight.

    Actually I dont even give a shit that he sucked tonight but more the fact that everyone here just accepts the fact he sucked as if its no big deal its just who he is. Thats an even more telling statement than me ripping his salary which in the end I dont care but sorry if we sign a pitcher for over 80 million I would want a pitcher who when they pitch bad we are shocked not so accepting of it because thats just who he is.

  21. Lanny says:

    Not one to harp on an umpire but that zone was ridiculously tight. Obscenely tight. Def got into Burnetts head.

    At least we know now that it isnt Posada behind the plate. Its the little things sometimes.

  22. ansky says:

    Another positive? Both Matsui and Posada will be in the lineup tomorrow. Phillies dont know who their closer is.

  23. Moshe Mandel says:

    It’s funny, the word in NY will be that Girardi made a mistake starting Burnett, but the way this game played out fully supports his decision. Cliff Lee is not invincible, and there was no reason to concede this game. A decent performance from Burnett probably wins the World Series.

    • BigBlueAL says:

      I think its more that now Pettitte has to start on 3 days rest. Burnett has a pretty good track record of starting on 3 days rest (albeit a small track record) so I dont think it was assuming Burnett would suck more that now Pettitte will have to pitch on 3 days rest and many will expect/assume he will suck.

    • Dela G says:

      agreed 2700 percent

  24. Lanny says:

    Well on the bright side I cannot see Pedro doing what he did in Game 2.

    You got to figure they are going to need 12-15 outs from the pen.

    We have to support Andy with early runs and keep them coming.

    • Well on the bright side I cannot see Pedro doing what he did in Game 2.

      +1

      They got to Lee in this game after seeing him once, and they can easily do the same to Pedro. Again, no doubt that they win this bad boy. Like others have been saying, most of us thought Yankees in six. Hell, that’s what I thought and I wasn’t even expecting two wins in Philly. Getting two wins there was huge.

      • Rose says:

        Though Pedro is a master who has reinvented himself. He was throwing pitches in all different speeds whenever he wanted. It’s almost impossible to prepare for that…you just have to hope he’s not as effective. Throwing several pitches anywhere from 67 mph to 90 mph at any time…then you think it’s 67mph and it comes in at 77mph…then 89mph…then back down to 68mph. It was just ridiculous.

    • pete says:

      and we’ll have a fully rested pen including mo joba and marte all w/ 2 full days off, and drob, hughes and ace all decently sharp. Not to mention Pettitte going in a clinching game in Yankee stadium, so the 3 days rest “tiredness” could very well be erased by big-game adrenaline.

    • Yanks 4 Life says:

      Exactly.

  25. DreDog says:

    Hey did anyone notice that Cano actually hit the ball hard? I am telling you the Yankees have a 10+ run game in them in the BX. Posada, Matsui, and some rest. Not even Gritner in the 9 hole will stop the offense in Game 6.

    • Lanny says:

      Cano finally had some good at bats. You can tell hes on the verge of getting hot. Tex too.

      And a second helping of Pedro and that middle relief should only help.

      • My problem with Cano this post-season was something I posted in the other thread.

        It seems as though he’s taking first pitches he should be ripping and swinging at first pitches he should be taking.

  26. Randy A. says:

    -The Yankees have a winning percentage of .704 at home.
    -Matsui and Posada in the starting lineup Wednesday.
    -Opposing starters will be Pedro and Hamels (outside chance of Blanton)

    I think Ill take my chances…

  27. Oh, and, I’m still waiting for an explanation on how Burnett’s performance tonight predicts anything for Pettitte’s on Wednesday.

  28. Chili Davis says:

    Big picture…

    The Yankees have a 3-2 World Series lead after taking two of three in Philadelphia, where the Phillies had previously won 11 of 12. Moreover, the Yankees have the winningest postseason pitcher ever, Andy Pettitte, and CC Sabathia lined up for the next two games against Pedro Martinez and likely Cole Hamels.

    Two more things: The Yanks will have their regular lineup intact (minus Melky), which means approximately eight combined Posada and Matsui at-bats, and they’ve already shown an ability to get to Philly’s bullpen late.

    How can you not love the Yanks’ chances?

    • Chili Davis says:

      *I meant they had previously won 11 of 12 playoff games.

    • I’m Matt Imbrogno and I approve this message.

      /CT resident who’s glad the NY mayor and NJ governor ads will stop tomorrow.

      • JMK aka The Overshare says:

        Politicians campaign every day, every year. They do more campaigning than legislation, in my opinion. Just not as many TV ads to scoff at during the “off-season”.

    • dalelama says:

      Because Tex, Cano, Gardner, and Swisher are all hitting below .180.

      • And those four hitting below .180 still means nothing. All of them are better hitters with true talent levels well above .180, meaning all of them are capable of snapping out of their slumps at the drop of a hat.

        And, despite all four of them struggling on the hole, the three of them who have started games before tonight have all come up with timely hits during this WS.

        Oh, and we were good enough to win 3 games thus far this WS with them all sucking. I’m not scared in the least.

        Stop trying to find ways to talk yourself out of predicting victory.

        • Chili Davis says:

          +27.

        • dalelama says:

          That is the truly amazing but frustrating part, if they had just played average this series would be over. I am just trying to guard against the over confidence of some posters. I remember 2004 clearly when no one thought we could lose after going 4 up.

          • I am just trying to guard against the over confidence of some posters.

            Our overconfidence is way more justified than your underconfidence is.

            I remember 2004 clearly when no one thought we could lose after going 4 up.

            2004 is clearly a statistical outlier. What happened to us that year has only happened to one single team in one single year in the 100+ year history of playoff baseball. You’re the only one still holding on to that bullshit. Give it a rest. Move on with your life. Stop living in fear of invented ghosts.

            Stop trying to talk yourself out of the fact that we’re the best team in baseball.

  29. aj says:

    lmao THey already asked that question! yeah burnett

  30. Riddering says:

    It’s like 65% of the people here have already forgotten the ALCS. The Yankees have the lead and they’re heading back home with a re-stacked lineup.

    Confidence level = +9000

  31. JackHammer says:

    phillies could pull this one out, but we’re huge favorites. we have petitte and cc.
    They have Pedro and ? We have Mariano. They have, put your head between your legs and pray. They can hit a ton, but so can we.

    Could we lose? yes. Should we lose? no. We’re obviously the best team in baseball this year, and we’re one game from proving it.

  32. Lanny says:

    At least Burnett and Coke are taking the heat like men.

  33. TJ says:

    So why did Coke come in and not Marte?

  34. Salty Buggah says:

    Disgusted by Robbie tonight. Even with A-Rod on 3rd, he basically popped out but Alex bailed him out by scoring anyway. I really hope he gets it going tomorrow and that his BABIP luck changes.

  35. aj says:

    Phil Coke: ” I Want the ball back tomorrow. Period”…ok first, screw you hell no, no way. Second, you don’t play tomorrow fool!

  36. Evil Empire says:

    Winning 2 out of 3 in Philly is something I would’ve signed up for in a cocaine heartbeat. I’m satisfied with the team’s performance thus far and there’s some really good news, guys: The Phillies can’t start Cliff Lee every game.

    Pedro is going to get demolished in game 6, Pettitte will do good enough, and Mo is good for 6 outs.

    Confidence level: 27

  37. wilcymoore says:

    Philadelphia has basically one pitcher, starter or reliever, who can dominate – that’s Cliff Lee. He threw 112 pitches tonight and for all practical purposes is done for the Series. The remainder of that staff can’t control the Yankees’ offense (with Matsui as DH) in the Stadium.

    The Yanks will win this in Game 6, or they’ll win it in Game 7. But they will win it.

  38. JackHammer says:

    If Petitte comes up big on Wednesday, he might get a plaque out there in monument park.

  39. Michael Kay says:

    yes paulie theory, and here’s hoping Utley doesn’t see another hittable pitch unless the bases are loaded. And honestly I hope of those walks is of the variety Philly gave to A-Rod 3 times in 2 games followed by McCarver chirping “Clearly the intention in this spot was NOT to intentionally hit Chase Utley.”

    oh and Pray For Victorino’s Hand.

    peace.

    • oh and Pray For Victorino’s Hand.

      Most important thing of the night to remember.

      • Evil Empire says:

        The silver lining of AJ’s outing?

      • Michael Kay says:

        any truth to this Mike Tirico quote from MNF?

        “This, we have to say it, remember this is just a football game, no matter who wins or loses. An unspeakable tragedy, confirmed to us by Joe Buck in Philadelphia: Shane Victorino, in the early innings of Game 5 of the World Series of baseball, the most gritty, perhaps, of all The Phillies, plunked on the hand, grimaced on swing, half hearted catch … though … continued to play.”

  40. ansky says:

    I still feel great about this team for the simple fact that we refused to die in back-to-back games and the Phillies know it.

    • Yet no one will ever say the Yankees have “heart.” Granted, I think it’s a stupid thing to talk about ’cause it’s not like any team ever wants to lose.

      • ansky says:

        True but they could’ve gone and tried to swing for the fences and they didnt…they stayed calm. I also love the fact that Philly doesnt have a closer anymore.

        • Doug says:

          Madson really should have been their closer, but he shat the bed each time he was given the opportunity. Believe me, I bought into the Fangraphs assessments of his stuff and picked him on my fantasy team each time. For whatever reason, he couldn’t handle the mental aspect of THE NINTH INNING and his abilities didn’t translate.

          Also, with three good pitches, you could make the case that he should be a mid-rotation starter.

          • Al from BX says:

            I think he’s a failed starter, but what do I know, I’m just an 800 lb. gorilla in the room.

            /AXA Equitable’d

  41. BigBlueAL says:

    Well on a positive note the last time a pitcher pitched Game 6 of the WS in NY on 3 days rest he pitched a CG shutout.

    If Pettitte can give the Yankees 6 innings with no more than 4 runs allowed that should be more than enough to win the game.

  42. nirzhor says:

    Sorry if i am late in saying this but i hope Pettitte beans Utley in the first innings. Revenge for A-Rod

  43. Lanny says:

    Their ace beat us at home. Thats fine. But give credit to the heart of this team that never quits. Down 6 in the 8th they bring the tying run to the plate. That shows something.

    It almost seems like we got the momentum. Just need the bats to support Andy early and often. Give him a lead. Let him throw strikes. Let him pitch his game.

  44. ansky says:

    One things for sure, Teix is going to have to get better against the changeups because he’s going to see alot of those from “Petey” on Wed.

  45. Evil Empire says:

    Wow, on Yahoo, Burnett is being referred to as the Yankee’s ace. Sensationalize much?

    To quote the subheader on the front page of Yahoo:

    “Yankees ace A.J. Burnett turns in the worst World Series start since 2002 as the Phillies force a Game 6. “

  46. Kiko Jones says:

    AJ is not a bum, far from it. But we can all agree he is erratic even on full-rest. So, with that in mind—and having already pitched a stellar game in the WS, making it a bit unlikely to do it back-to-back—why would he be effective on 3 days rest? Because he did it a few years ago but not since? Not good enough a reason.

    With the Yankees up 3-1 in the Series, tonight I was for Gaudin starting and then have the bullpen get some work. No! He’ll get lit up! Can’t count on Gaudin! Well, that’s what happened anyway, except it was AJ who couldn’t get out of the third inning, and consequently both Pettite—who hasn’t been confirmed for Game 6—and CC, if needed, will both pitch on 3 days rest, instead of a rested Burnett and Pettite.

    Since the decision to pitch AJ tonight was dumbfounding—with the Yankees lineup resembling more the Tigers than the Bombers due to the practically non-existent hitting of the bottom 5 hitters, AJ had to be lights-out dominant—I was hoping Joe G had something up his sleeve. I mean, not one analyst, announcer, former player, sports talk show host or fan I came across agreed w/Joe’s decision—they predicted tonight’s sorry outcome and the subsequent 3 day-rest situation—so maybe Joe knew something no one else did.

    Um, nope.

    • ACC says:

      Agreed, and I have yet to hear a strong defense of this decision yet. In fact, outside of this website, I have not heard anyone express support for Girardi’s decision after the Yanks went up 3-1.

      • In fact, outside of this website, I have not heard anyone express support for Girardi’s decision after the Yanks went up 3-1.

        Outside of this website, the overwhelming majority of people I see who talk about baseball are not smart and espouse bad strategic decisions and adhere to false narratives like they’re going out of style.

      • You go to Burnett because even on short rest, he’s better than Gaudin and less likely to give up a stinker. Just because he did that tonight doesn’t make Gaudin the better option. Chad Gaudin hasn’t started a game since September 28. He has pitched one inning since then. How sharp was he really going to be? The chances of Burnett going out there and pitching great are much greater than the chances of Gaudin going out there and pitching great. Gaudin is also more likely to have an outing like Burnett did tonight than Burnett is. Give me A.J. in that spot every single time.

        • ACC says:

          When the Yankees go up 3-1, I think your argument weakens, because in the case of failure from either Gaudin or Burnett in Game 5, you have superior pitching in Games 6 and 7 if you used Gaudin in Game 5 than Burnett. I’m sorry, this argument just isn’t reasonable to me once the Yankees have a 3-1 lead in the series.

          • ROBTEN says:

            You still have superior pitching in games 6 and 7…

            Burnett, Pettitte, and CC on 3 days rest >>>>>>> Gaudin on 4 days rest.

            The point is having superior pitching available for every game.

            • ACC says:

              Gaudin on 4 days (or a month and a half) rest + Pettite and Burnett on normal rest >>>>>> Burnett, Pettite, + CC on 3 days rest when you only need one game to win.

              • No. Gaudin is not a better choice than any of that. At all. He hasn’t started since September 28th. What could you reasonably expect against him. That ~.820 career OPS vs. LHB also isn’t what you’d want in a small park against a lefty-heavy lineup.

                • ACC says:

                  So including Gaudin as a starter in this series, period, is what you object to? I don’t see the problem in hoping you get 1-3 decent innings out of Gaudin, 1-3 out of Aceves, and see where you are at from there, with a strong lead in the series.

                • You know, when someone up top said, jokingly I believe, “Start Aceves!” the thought of a tandem start between Ace/Gaudin jumped into my head. That actually may have worked. Maybe.

                  But, generally, yes, I object to Gaudin starting in this series.

              • Doug says:

                Once again, Chad Gaudin, career:

                vs RHB – .249/.318/.409 (.728)
                vs LHB – .293/.389/.433 (.822)

                Utley/Howard/Ibanez would have eaten him alive.

                Besides, it’s bad managing to concede games. There’s no such thing as a strategic retreat in baseball.

              • BklynJT says:

                Sorry, but if Gaudin pitches today we lose, then AJ throws up his shitty performance against Pedro and we lose, then we down to game 7 with Pettitte pitching. If you think the 3 days rest had anything to do with AJ’s performances, your probably wrong. the only concern is Pettitte on short rest, since he’s getting up there in age. No point in second guessing. Please let them take it with Andy pitching, that would be great. Plus AJ can come out of the pen to help in the next 2 games. and it would be good Aj’s turn to show up too =). Remember all the panic after the ALCS went to 6 games. We will take this at home. Hope and believe!!!

          • When the Yankees go up 3-1, I think your argument weakens, because in the case of failure from either Gaudin or Burnett in Game 5, you have superior pitching in Games 6 and 7 if you used Gaudin in Game 5 than Burnett.

            Why should you be planning for a loss? It’s the World Series, not a low leverage game in mid-September. When you have the chance to close out the series, you go with the best guy possible, and that was Burnett on three days rest.

            I’m sorry, this argument just isn’t reasonable to me once the Yankees have a 3-1 lead in the series.

            Sure, because you’re willing to concede a game. I’d say that the Yankees didn’t want to do that. Why should and would they? You don’t plan for losses in the World Series.

            • ACC says:

              You are operating on the assumption that every game is a must win in the World Series. Once you have a 3-1 lead, and the series is going back to your house, where you have lost but one game in the entire postseason to date, I think it is OK to allow that you may lose a game in order to better your position in the series overall. It isn’t conceding, since you run out your best lineup and everyone pitches and hits to win. You still try to produce runs and coax one out of your bullpen. However, you can rest assured that even if you lose the game, you have a much greater situation in front of you than if you gambled and used only 3 starters in a 7-game series.

              • You are operating on the assumption that every game is a must win in the World Series.

                I wouldn’t say that. I’m just saying that when you have the chance to close out the series, you do it. Freaky shit happens in small sample sizes and short series. Win when you can.

                Once you have a 3-1 lead, and the series is going back to your house, where you have lost but one game in the entire postseason to date, I think it is OK to allow that you may lose a game in order to better your position in the series overall.

                Thinking you might lose may be part of the game but that doesn’t mean you should rest on your laurels, so to speak, and not put the best team out on the field (the best team was not on the field for the whole game tonight, but I don’t think it had to do with the starting pitcher).

                • ACC says:

                  We are finally getting somewhere! OK, I see what you are saying now. In my opinion, when either of your options are unpalatable for the game at hand, you choose the option that is likely to lead to long-term success rather than the option that gives you a marginally better chance in the game at hand, but sacrifices your long-term chances in the long run.

                • I see what you’re getting at, too. However, I agree with what Doug said below about the view of wins/losses.

              • Doug says:

                You have to play games one at a time; going into a playoff series with a macro view of wins and losses is unrealistic.

                If you want any chance of winning with Gaudin, then you will have to burn your bullpen once he’s done after 5 IP.

                • ACC says:

                  That argument in itself is a macro-view of the series. Why care about burning your bullpen if you are taking a every-game-is-a-must-win position?

                • Because putting Burnett out there is means that there is less of a chance of needing to burn the ‘pen.

                • BklynJT says:

                  Because pitching Gaudin gives us an extremely low chance to win against Cliff Lee. No one knew that we were to score 5 runs off Lee, which by the way is 1 run less than what they scored of AJ, therefore you have to take into consideration the performance by Gaudin and its affect on the next games, since your basically conceding the game by pitching Gaudin.

                • Doug says:

                  Playing one game at a time also means putting yourself in the best position to win each game. Sustainable bullpen management is a lower order of “macro view” managing than conceding losses for a more advantageous situation in the future that is not guaranteed.

                  If Girardi pitched Mo 2 innings every game, then he would no longer be able to put the Yankees in the best possible position to win each game. He would be harming the team’s chances for Game 3 or 4.

                • ACC says:

                  Matty- I agree with you on that point, but again, it is taking the macro-view of the series to consider the potential detriment to the bullpen, which is what I was countering.

                  Bklyn- You can check out my other comments in this block to see a better developed argument, but in summary: I don’t think it’s conceding a game to have a Gaudin/bullpen game and it’s important to consider the potential alternatives in case of a loss with either Burnett or Gaudin (since neither option is palatable, I think we can agree on that).

      • Joe D. says:

        Agreed, and I have yet to hear a strong defense of this decision yet. In fact, outside of this website, I have not heard anyone express support for Girardi’s decision after the Yanks went up 3-1.

        “Because A.J. Burnett/3 and Andy Pettitte/3 are better than Chad Gaudin/32 and A.J. Burnett/5. And because you don’t get cute in the World Series.”

        – Quoted from Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prosectus

        ALSO: “Joe Girardi has made a lot of small mistakes in the playoffs, but he got one thing right that dwarfed all of those – the decision to use a three man rotation has given the Yankees a huge advantage.”

        – Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.

        • ACC says:

          Does Sheehan provide statistical evidence to back that up? I am serious, that would give this argument some weight. Otherwise, I just straight up disagree with both authors, especially because he does not factor Pettite/5 vs. CC/3 (twice in one series!) into his equation.

          • Do you also demand that the various voices who have said that Gaudin should start provide statistical evidence as well to back up their positions?

            • ACC says:

              No, because in that case (which is my own), it can logically be deduced without statistics. When faced with two poor options for a Game 5 starter, choose the one that gives you a much better chance for a win in Games 6/7, rather than the one that gives you a marginally better chance in Game 5. You can even back that up somewhat with Burnett’s home and away stats, plus we all have seen this postseason how much better he has been at Yankee than away. Thus, I’d be more likely to be swayed if I saw some stats.

              • No, because in that case (which is my own), it can logically be deduced without statistics

                No, it can’t. You’re demanding that the position you don’t support be supported by statistical research, but you’re fine accepting the position that you do support as unsubstantiated anecdote.

                That’s disingenuous.

              • TheLastClown says:

                The crux of it, and why some of us don’t like it, is because you’re saying that Gaudin made sense because of perceived *by you* position advantages in games 6 & 7.

                That means you throw Gaudin to lose.

                The Yankees don’t do anything to lose. At all. Ever.

                Period.

              • Doug says:

                So you’re saying that it’s Dave Sheehan’s analysis vs. your analysis?

                In any case, here’s another way of looking at it. Charlie Manuel chose the path you are advocating, sending out Joe Blanton for Game 4 instead of Cliff Lee on short rest. But it’s not a good comparison for sending out Gaudin, as Blanton is still much, much better than Gaudin. With Blanton, the Phillies’ chance of winning wasn’t too slim; they needed the offense to perform to win. Blanton gave them innings and a 4 run hole that wasn’t inconceivably insurmountable.

                The problem with Gaudin is that he could easily melt down as badly as Bad AJ or become gassed after 5 innings. Then, burn the pen. I believe that the chances of winning with Gaudin, without the DH, and having to entrust things to the bullpen, would be so remote it’d be only a few degrees away from conceding the game. There’s not even a legitimate chance of “maybe the offense explodes for 6+ runs and we win.”

                • ACC says:

                  I am saying that if that is the crux of Sheehan’s argument, I am inclined to disagree without statistical evidence to support it, and I was wondering if he used any to back it up.

                  You make a good point with Manuel, but here is the difference: Manuel pitches Lee Game 4 and Blanton Game 5 (ie follow the strategy I proposed for the Yanks), then he is in the same position he is in now, plus he has Lee to go again in Game 7 if need be, instead of mandating a Lee Game 7 start. That is the position I am advocating for the Yankees, not that Gaudin should have gone in Game 4, like Blanton. Once you have a 3-1 lead, it’s OK to make macro decisions, in my opinion.

                  Finally, the concern about burning the pen is a macro-series decision, which is exactly what I am advocating. I just disagree with you that it would be all but conceding the game to start Gaudin, because the offense will still produce the same if Burnett was in the game (or better, since Posada would be in), and you hope Gaudin + bullpen can hold the damn long enough.

    • Evil Empire says:

      Though this is a well written statement, there are several aspects of it that I disagree with or find to be patently false and untrue.

    • TheLastClown says:

      Look, the problem was with Molina catching AJ, especially in the NL park, not with AJ starting on 3 days rest.

      According to you, AJ is erratic on full rest, and so you didn’t expect him to perform well two starts a fow. Why then do you care if it’s 3 or 4 days rest?

      Next, you want Andy pitching game 7? No thanks bud.

      Even if *for some nonsensical reason* Gaudin pitched tonight, and we lost game 6, CC still goes on 3 days rest. Guaranteed.

      AJ’s potential >>>> Gaudin’s potential, and so the results of getting lit up are irrelevant. Everyone getting lit up looks more or less the same. It’s the difference in the possible success that makes the decision.

      • ACC says:

        But CC was not very sharp on 3 days rest in this series already, and to believe that he’ll be sharp enough to dominate a Game 7 on short rest twice in the same series seems overly optimistic to me.

        • Doug says:

          In a Game 7, CC would pitch at home, have the DH for run support, and have the bullpen to pick him up after 6 innings if necessary.

          I’ll take CC for the 2nd time on three day’s rest over a fully rested (and tired armed) Cole Hamels.

        • Doug says:

          In a Game 7, CC would pitch at home, have the DH for run support, and have the bullpen to pick him up after 6 innings if necessary.

          I’ll take CC for the 2nd time on three day’s rest over a fully rested (and tired armed) Cole Hamels.

      • Kiko Jones says:

        AJ isn’t erratic according to just me or have we forgotten the whole “good AJ/bad AJ”? My point was AJ was more likely to be erratic on 3 days rest than full rest. And where did I bring up Pettite in Game 7? I’m saying that because AJ pitched today instead of Game 6, Andy will unnecessarily be on 3 days rest for Game 6. And with that in mind, I would’ve preferred Gaudin tonight.

        • ROBTEN says:

          Pettitte on 3 days rest:

          BA: .266
          OBP .345
          SLG: .387
          OPS: .732
          tOPS+ 103

          Burnett on 3 days rest:

          BA: .192
          OBP: .279
          SLG: .293
          OPS: .572
          tOPS+ 67

          CC on 3 days rest:

          BA: .172
          OBP: .230
          SLG: .183
          OPS: .413
          tOPS+: 24

          Gaudin on 4 days rest:

          BA: .292
          OBP: .379
          SLG: .429
          OPS. 807
          tOPS+ 117

          • JMK aka The Overshare says:

            So, in closing: All your base are belong to us!

            • Furthermore, the heart of the whole “Let’s start Gaudin in Game 5″ argument is that it’s better to intentionally lose Game 5 so you can avoid pitchers pitching on short rest for Games 6 or 7.

              But Game 7 is moot, because CC is pitching Game 7 on short rest. We all know that, and we all know it’s the right move, because CC is the best pitcher on the team and is a horse capable of pitching on short rest with great success. So, the Gaudin Gambit is really this:

              Is it worth conceding Game 5 in order to change Game 6 from Andy Pettitte on 3 days rest into AJ Burnett on normal rest?

              The answer to that should be: No. AJ is too inconsistent of a pitcher to be so dramatic of an upgrade on full rest over Andy on short rest that it is worth sacrificing a potential closeout Game 5.

              Frankly, Andy on short rest and AJ on full rest is basically a push. I’m not throwing away a chance to close out the series in Game 5, on the heels of three straight wins with the Phillies back on their heels, just to swap Andy for AJ in Game 6. That’s not enough to make that Game 5 loss worthwhile.

              AJ on short rest with a good chance to clinch + Andy on short rest with a good chance to clinch + CC on short rest with a good chance to clinch
              >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
              Gaudin on long rest with virtually no chance to clinch + AJ on full rest with a good chance to clinch + CC on short rest with a good chance to clinch

              You’re drastically decreasing your chances to win Game 5, only slightly increasing your chances to win Game 6, and not at all affecting your chances to win Game 7. And no, having Andy in reserve behind CC for Game 7 is not remotely enough to make up for that net decrease in the Game 5/Game 6 combo.

              • ACC says:

                Starting Gaudin Game 5 is not an intentional concession… do you really think the hitters would just roll over? The heart of my argument, at least, is when you have two unpalatable options for Game 5, choose the one that gives you a much better chance to win Game 6 or 7, not the one that gives you a marginally better chance to win Game 5.

                • If the amount that your chosen strategy decreases our chances of winning Game 5 is larger than the amount it increases our chances of winning Game 6, it’s a bad strategy.

                  Subbing AJ for Gaudin in Game 5 hurts our chances of winning that game more than subbing Andy for AJ increases our chances of winning Game 6.

                  It’s a poor gamble.

                • ACC says:

                  We differ here. I think the home/away splits of Burnett, coupled with Andy’s age and paucity of good short-rest starts, increase the chances of winning Game 6 more than starting Gaudin decreases the chance of winning Game 5. Throw in the inferior Game 5 lineup with Molina, too.

                • TheLastClown says:

                  You can’t throw in the inferior lineup, becuase that’s a separately debatable point.

                  As I said to Kiko, with whom you agreed, you start AJ on 3 days rest w/ Posada behind the plate.

                • JMK aka The Overshare says:

                  ACC rolled up with “paucity.” He wins the argument. Sorry, guys.

                • ACC says:

                  The lineup is not a separately debatable point because it comes with the territory of a Burnett vs. Gaudin start. If Girardi is willing to start Posada with AJ, I think your argument is stronger, but we all know that is not what Girardi does, so I think the point is salient.

                  And JMK, I’m here for some lively debate, not your New York snark! Got anything relevant to say?

                  Plus, we’re all on the same team. I’m not trying to antagonize anyone here, just glad I’m getting some feedback on this debate.

                • TheLastClown says:

                  Didn’t mean to snap at you, I explained abovewards.

                  I’m hearing you say “Gaudin should’ve started instead of AJ”

                  Thus Girardi made a mistake. I disagree that THAT was the mistake he made.

                  The mistake, IMO, was starting Molina.

                  Hence it’s a separate issue.

                • ACC says:

                  Ahh, ok, I see. Well, I agree that starting Molina was a mistake as well. I would probably still have advocated a Gaudin start, but I doubt I would be as steadfast in my convictions.

                • TheLastClown says:

                  Mmmmm…smell that compromise. :)

                • TheLastClown says:

                  Also, can’t really get mad at the Overshare for oversharing, or being an overshare.

                  He did warn us all.

                • ACC says:

                  Agreed. On that pleasant note, I’ll call it a night, and reiterate that although I disagree with this particular Girardi decision, I am still very confident that the Yankees will close this thing out on Wednesday. #27, here we f’n come!

          • Salty Buggah says:

            Dagger right there

          • BklynJT says:

            SSS stats dont mean shit right now. Go Pettitte win this one for your next pay day, and the Yankees while your at it.

        • TheLastClown says:

          No, we haven’t forgotten anything.

          AJ on 3 days rest >>>>> Gaudin period.

          I won’t say that AJ on full rest > Andy on 3 days, because AJ, in my opinion, could shit the bed or totally dominate, no matter the rest. *or the catcher for that matter*

          All the salient points have been made again & again.

          The decision to start AJ was right.

          I believe that starting Molina was wrong, & Coke > Marte was wrong. If those two moves aren’t made, the Yankees probably score one more & give up two less.

          But in the end, who cares? Andy’s going to win his second consecutive game 6, end of story.

  47. ansky says:

    Man Mitch Williams is such a homer! He’s talking about Pedro like he’s Cy Young and WILL force a game 7.

  48. BigBlueAL says:

    Cant wait to see Wade Boggs ride the horse when the Yankees celebrate their Game 6 victory.

  49. Camilo Gerardo - your inception? fuck perception, go with what makes sense says:

    A win in the ninth would have been so epic. walk off would be legendary, but it won’t be that close weds…

  50. kunaldo says:

    Alex is heating up. He’s going to seal the deal on WS MVP on wed. Book it.

  51. JMK aka The Overshare says:

    Sometimes I feel like I’m watching Intervention while in threads after a loss.

  52. Joe D. says:

    I love this team.

    That is all.

  53. ICEMAN says:

    Is pedro starting on Game 6??

  54. dre says:

    why is no one putting any blame on Girardi for this one?
    he really crapped the bed there in the 7th. we are only down by 4 runs in a hitters park, there starting pitcher was at about 100 pitches and thier bullpen is Garbage..why oh why do you bring in coke???? he hasn’t pitching in forever and is prone to HRs. this game was still within reach..i was yelling at my tv when he did that. Marte should have been in there hands down. Horrible managing decision.

  55. Wolf Williams says:

    Cano has done next to nothing. Tex isn’t swinging the bat at even a Class A level. Over half the relievers appear in over their heads. AJ lived down to the unfortunate side of his reputation. Nick Swisher has been more bad than good this series. Melky is hurt. Coke showed why Marte has been favored over the entire postseason. Jeter DP’d at the worst time possible…… and we averaged 7 runs per game in Philly, we won 2-of-3, and we’re heading home.

    I bet the Phillies wish they had the 3-to-2 lead.

    Go, Yankees.

  56. Tom Zig says:

    All what losing today means is that Andy Pettitte only has to hold the lead until the 7th inning because Marte and Joba will be available to pitch the 7th and maybe part of the 8th and then hand the ball to Mo to get a 4-6 out save and WS MVP.

  57. JMK aka The Overshare says:

    There’s been a lot of wah-wah and rah-rah about Girardi’s rotation set-up. But let’s compare it to that of Charlie Manuel:

    Manuel throws his ace (and his only plus starter) twice.
    Manuel cannot throw his ace in a Game 7. He throws him in Game 5.
    Manuel starts Martinez, Hamels and Blanton in a 7 game series. Pedro and Cole probably throw twice.

    As a famous French General once said, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

  58. dkidd says:

    i totally agree with the poster who predicted an offensive explosion in game six. you can just feel it building. tex is obviously overdue. cano and posada are starting to take good swings. matsui’s getting back in the line-up. the masochist in me wants a nail biting finish, but there’s a good chance game 6 could be a laugher

    and on the off chance we lose game six, cole hamels has the emotional stability of angelina jolie in “girl, interrupted”

  59. Boogie Down says:

    Andy is a warrior, all he has to do is give us 5+ of 2 run ball. The pen should take care of the rest.

  60. Boogie Down says:

    Our lineup for game 6 ?

    Jeter
    Damon
    Tex
    Arod
    Matsui
    Jorge
    Cano
    Swish
    Gardner

  61. [...] put it well in the postgame reaction. “AJ Burnett completely crapped the bed, which had little to do with [...]

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