Dec
09

Previewing the Rule 5 draft

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We’re hearing some buzz surrounding the Yanks’ first pick in tomorrow’s Rule 5 draft, so let’s take a look at what they’re saying.

  • First up is ESPN’s Jayson Stark, who says that the Yankees “are shopping the No. 1 pick in Thursday’s Rule 5 draft.” I doubt this happens. What they’d get in return probably wouldn’t outweigh the possible upside of the pick, so chances are they’ll just hold onto it. The only way I can see them dishing it is if they get back a player not on a team’s 40-man roster (and not Rule 5 eligible).
  • As for who they’ll take, FanHouse’s Frank Piliere thinks it will be Arquimedes Caminero. Piliere “scouted him extensively this year,” and it sounds like the pick has his blessing. The problem is that he’s 22 and pitched just 40.2 innings in relief last year, only 2.1 of which came as high as A+. Players can make that kind of jump, but it’s unlikely he’d stick.
  • Speaking of A+ ball players, Baseball America’s John Manuel lists a few names, including Jason Rice of the Red Sox. He throws gas and dominated A+, striking out 94 in 70 innings. He walked 41, though, which makes him an unlikely pick.
  • Manuel mentions two other names: Bobby Cassevah of the Angels, a ground ball machine (4.03 GO/FO ratio) who pitched to a 3.68 ERA in AA last season. Craig Baker is another name. He struck out 75 in 63 innings while closing games for the Rockies class A affiliate.
  • Chad Jennings likes Chad Tracy and Matt McBride, both of whom are right-handed outfielders who can play first base and catch. Mike mentioned Tracy in his Rule 5 post the other day.
  • Personally, I think it will be Yohan Pino. He’s more advanced than the other candidates who has displayed great control in the minors. He also owns a 1.15 WHIP. Then there’s Tommy Mendoza, also of the Angels, who also has good control.

We’re less than 24 hours from the draft. If the Internet permits, I’ll set up a chat tomorrow morning.

Categories : Analysis

109 Comments»

  1. dkidd says:

    yohan pino, please

    awesome name
    gangster part deux

  2. JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

    I’d definitely be on board if it were Pino. McBryde (the outfielder, not catcher) has some potential with his versatility and experience, especially as one of the few guys seemingly able to stick on a 25-man all year. Heck, even McBryde and Tracy seem to have the goods. Indians left a lot of guys unprotected.

    Aneury Rodriguez, Chuck Lofgren are guys to look at as well.

    A chat tomorrow would be neat.

  3. It’s so hard to know how guys this young will pan out. Practically useless to talk about until they start playing pro ball.

  4. pat says:

    DAMMIT I still want Tosoni.

  5. Greg F. says:

    I’m all for Pino too. The Yankees can take someone with a higher upside but it’s highly doubtful any of them will pan out.

    Pino, on the other end is a pretty good bet to contribute value to the team in 2009 and beyond.

  6. Side-note: With the way Joe’s put guys in the LaTroy Hawkins Memorial Zone (i.e., Hawkins, Veras, Tomko, Melancon), it’s clear that he’s totally comfortable with a 7 man pen where 6 of the 7 men get 95% of the work and the last man sits in the corner, gathering dust.

    This could work to our benefit. We could theoretically pull off what the Twins did with Johan Santana: Take a super-high upside guy who you KNOW is way too raw for the show, stick him in the bullpen aaaaaaaaaaaallthewayintheback and never use him except for super-super low leverage situations, then at year’s end, when the R5 roster restrictions are over, send him BACK to the minors for a few years to develop.

    Thoughts? Gamble on the upside, and play with effectively a 24-man roster for a year because we’re hiding a diamond in the rough?

  7. Mike bk says:

    I still like Aneury Rodriguez of the pitchers. Only 22, solid at AA.

  8. Andy in Sunny Daytona says:

    Take Jason Rice. 1st game of the season, have him drill Youkilis, send him back to Boston. Take the $25,000 and party all night.

  9. Roger says:

    I don’t see any of these bums sticking none of these guys are as good as Nova was when the Padres took him from us last year and they ended up shipping him back to us. Out of all the guys eligible I’d probably take Kevin Whelan but hes ours. Oh well I guess I’d probably take Arquimedes Elcamino.

    • Yeah, but we’re not the Padres.

      The first 24 guys on our roster are good enough that we can afford to carry a shitty 25th man. The Padres are in a different situation; they need to have the best 25 men on their roster at all times just to be competitive.

      • Ed says:

        I disagree. Go back to opening day 2008. Trade the 25th player on the Padres for any player of your choice. Pujols, Mauer, Lincecum, etc. You still need a lot of luck for the Padres to finish in the playoffs.

        I’d say the 25th man matters even less to them, as with any realistic option for that spot, they still miss the playoffs.

        • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

          Yup. I agree with Ed. Their 20th best guy is probably our 25th best guy. But even beyond that, roster space is so valuable for good teams, particularly teams in the AL East, so that player needs to be able to play a role. When the margins between really good teams is so small, the 25th guy matters more than it would to a shitty team like the Nats or Padres. Because we’re a perennial Playoff-bound team, that last guy holds that-much-more value because of the short-series nature of the playoffs.

    • Chip says:

      Yeah and Nova then went on to have an outstanding season for us and is one of the first guys that will get called up if we need a starter. I’d imagine the Padres wish they’d have given him a longer look

    • Salty Buggah says:

      But this isn’t the same scenario. Nova wasn’t really doing well at that time. IIRC, he was bad for them in Spring training so they just sent him back because he would be useless. He had potential but thats all. He really broke out this past season.

  10. Chip says:

    Actually, would it be crazy to see the Yankees select two guys and try to keep the winner in the bullpen all year?

  11. AndrewYF says:

    This is off-topic, but would anyone be disappointed if Montero had Javy Lopez’s career? On the cusp of the majors by age 21, defensively-retarded catcher who can hit over .300, doesn’t walk much, and has fantastic power.

    • Ghost of Scott Brosius says:

      Not at all. Javy Lopez was an impact power bat, and while defensively subpar, still managed to play the position for a decade.

  12. steve s says:

    Is a veteran who was just desginated for assignment (which I think means he’s been removed from the 40 man roster) eligible to be taken in Rule 5 (thinking Ryan Church who ain’t half bad as a back-up outfielder).

    • Andy in Sunny Daytona says:

      He’s not half bad, but he’s definitely 49% bad.

    • Mike bk says:

      why would you take him Rule 5, he would be a FA in all likelihood who you could just sign.

    • king of fruitless hypotheticals says:

      why would you do that? just call him, and say ‘hey, is this the ryan church that just got dfa’d as a BACKUP outfielder?’

      and then he’d say ‘yes?’

      then you’d say ‘this is Cash Money from the Yankees, and–’

      and then he’d say ‘Yes?!?!’

      then you’d say ‘nothing…just wanted to let you know i wasnt wasting my Rule V draft pick when i could just sign you, but i’m not, so….kthxbai.’

      then he’d cry.

      which would make you a jerk :(

  13. Andy in Sunny Daytona says:

    Any Rule V minor league portion players look appealing?

    • A.D. says:

      What exactly is the deal with that? Can you take any unprotected A ball player and put him in AA? What roster does he have to not be apart of to be eligible?

      • Andy in Sunny Daytona says:

        I was just testing everyone’s knowledge. My ledge of know is way before that portion of the draft.

        • Thomas says:

          From BA

          There are Triple-A and Double-A segments of the Rule 5 draft, with price tags of $12,000 and $4,000 respectively. Minor league players not protected on the reserve lists at the Double-A and Class A levels are subject to selection, but almost no future big leaguers emerge from this process. It’s basically a tool for major league teams to fill out affiliates rather than obtain talent. However, the Giants found success in that route. In 2005, they took second baseman Eugenio Velez from the Blue Jays

  14. All Praise Be To Mo says:

    Any thoughts on using this as a trade chip? A team like the Blue Jays (for Halladay) or the Cubs (melky + pick for Marmol) or various other scenarios could spare a spot for a high upside arm that we possibly couldn’t.

  15. JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

    If we’re looking for an Aceves-type guy that can contribute right now as a spot starter, longman or just relief, Pino makes the most sense. If we’re looking for a LOOGY to replace Coke, we can definitely find a guy in Rule V.

    Infielders are out of the question. An outfielder like McBryde (Giants CF), John Shelby (White Sox CF) could work, but they may have difficulty sticking on the roster. Catcher/1B with McBride and Tracy could work (I like Tracy more), but with the way our roster is presently constructed, having the 25th spot with a C/1B that can’t be moved may create a punch; a reliever makes more sense.

    Carminero could hide on the 25-man if he’s used in low-leverage situations. His stuff would certainly play to the big leagues. But does he have the control/experience to stay on the 25-man? Besides, could stifle his development. Lofgren makes sense as a longman, relief guy and could be a LOOGY.

    Rodriguez could be a spot starter/relief guy on the roster.

    Favorites, in order:

    1) Yohan Pino
    2) Aneury Rodriguez
    3) Abacus Caminero
    4) Chad Tracy
    5) Chuck Lofgren
    6) Michael McBryde
    7) Matt McBride
    8) John Shelby
    9) Tommy Mendoza
    10) Bobby Caseveh

  16. Reggie C. says:

    I enjoyed the BA writeup on Jason Rice. Rice, 23, is a fireballer who can hit 96. Pitched in High class A and struck out 94 in 70 innings. If the organization wants to grab some relief depth, Rice is a candidate.

  17. Bo says:

    Wouldnt be shocked if this pick is spun to another team for a piece they can stash in the minors.

  18. [...] draft, we’ve also heard that the Yankees don’t intend on doing that, and that there are a number of options they are currently considering for their pick. Among those options is, according to Jonathan Mayo [...]

  19. Mike bk says:

    kiley mcdaniel is tweeting that we might pick Konotos back so to replace coke.

  20. Mike bk says:

    Jon Mayo of MLB network thinks we might be interested in John Raynor, 25, of from the marlins system. had a down year last year at AAA but was number 10 prospect heading into last year.

    • Mike bk says:

      seems more like a 2nd pick (our original pick) potential than the number 1 pick overall. still have my hopes on Aneury.

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