Dec
10

What went into the Granderson deal, plus Halladay

By

I’m finally home from Indianapolis. I’ve got a thread coming up later on thanking various folks, but for now, here are some things I worked on during the week, but didn’t make it on to YESNetwork.com. First is a bit on the Granderson signing, starting with how long it took to develop. Then there’s a market for Halladay article. I think that if the Phils want him, the Phils have him, and that the Yanks present the next best opportunity for the Jays. The Angels? I have no idea why the rebuilding Jays would ever take Saunders and Aybar. None at all.

Categories : Asides
  • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

    Re: Halladay… I should have said this a long time ago, ’cause now it’s not such an original or interesting idea… But I’ve long thought the Phillies are the perfect landing spot for Halladay. They have the pieces to get the deal done, they have what is right now a perennial playoff contending team, they’d be an easy trading partner for Toronto since they’re in the NL, and Halladay could really put them over the top in that league and make them a potentially daunting opponent for any AL team in the WS. I’m sure part of my interest in a Halladay-Phillies deal stems from my interest in seeing him go to the NL, if he’s going anywhere, but it really does make a ton of sense in a lot of ways. If I was a Phillies fan I think I’d be very interested in seeing my team make that deal.

    • vin

      They would be absolute monsters next year. Lee AND Halladay in the National League? The Phils would win 60 of their starts. Those two horses would make that bullpen look a lot better too.

      • DP

        Plus some guy Hole Camels.

        • vin

          That guy from the commercials?

          If he gets back on track next year, then they’ll win 110 games.

          • http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090810&content_id=6355462&vkey=news_nyy&fext=.jsp&c_id=nyy JobaWockeeZ

            Nah too much.

            • vin

              I was being somewhat facetious. However, if the important guys stay healthy, and Hamels is back in ’08 form… then yeah they will be dominant.

          • JGS

            only if he keeps poundin’ the corner

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

              or maybe gets ‘em to chase one outside

              • http://www.richardiurilli.com/ Richard Iurilli

                Aw, dad, not again!

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      So, what’s it take? One of Drabek/Happ and one of Taylor/Brown?

      • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        To be honest, I don’t know the Phils’ prospects well enough to really get into the nitty gritty of which of their prospects would make an acceptable package to Toronto. I’m really just going on what I’ve heard – that the Phils have top-notch prospects and that they didn’t deal them for Lee. So I’m admittedly just listening to others in making that assessment, I’m definitely no expert.

        But yeah… I mean, if you’re the Phils, I think you have to think very seriously about trading some prospects for a guy like Halladay. Like Joe said in his YES article, they have some contracts expiring in the next couple of years. The flip-side of having those expiring contracts is that they have what might be a small window in which they can go full-bore after another championship. Obviously I appreciate the benefit of holding onto prospects and building/re-building through the development system… But if there’s one time when you would go ahead and blow your prospect load on the trade market (other than the pipe dream of getting something like a Hanley Ramirez or a young Albert Pujols via trade), I think that time might be when you have the opportunity to acquire a player who, more than any other player/move out there, could put your team into the World Series and give it a pretty decent shot at winning, especially when, unlike the current iteration of the Yankees, you probably don’t have too many years of dominance left.

        • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          Or maybe, like I said, I just want Halladay out of the AL so I’m not looking at this with the proper perspective. That’s also totally possible. But, man, would Halladay be an immense addition to that Phillies team.

  • DP

    What happened to the countdown to pitchers and catchers?

  • vin

    “I have no idea why the rebuilding Jays would ever take Saunders and Aybar. None at all.”

    This.

  • john Adams

    Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. had this to say to Scott Lauber about acquiring Halladay: “I don’t think there’s any likeliness. None.”

    I dont think the Phillies are in on halladay ?

    • jsbrendog

      see:

      bubba crosby is our opening day cf

      nick swisher is our opening day 1b

      don’t buy the party line

    • Reggie C.

      Amaro could be playing his cards close.

      I wonder if a package of JA Happ, Dominic Brown, & Antonio Bastardo lets Anthopoulos off the hook. The Phils still get to hold onto Drabek. They could sign Halladay to an extension, thereby probably eliminating the chances of affording Cliff Lee. However, Amaro could offer Lee arbitration, and get another team’s first rounder.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        I’d say you need one more decent guy at the end of that, maybe two.

        If it’s Drabek/Brown/Bastardo, yes. If it’s Happ/Brown/Bastardo, you’ve gotta throw in a little extra, like maybe a Chance Chapman or a Anthony Hewitt.

        • Reggie C.

          I wonder if the Phils aren’t over-valuing Drabek’s abilities. His BA writeup doesnt read like top-of-the-order stuff. If Drabek isn’t a 1/2 type, he’s gotta be expendable.

  • Mac1

    On the Kay show today, it was mentioned that the Jays would turn around and trade Saunders for more prospects.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Sure, if you consider dealing for Saunders and then flipping him to the Mets for Omir Santos and Angel Pagan a deal for “prospects”.

      • Mac1

        I’m not a GM, that kind of wheelin and dealin is beyond me.

        • king of fruitless hypotheticals

          Angel Pagan? is that a real name???

    • Hey ZZ

      If Roy Halladay is not getting you the prospects you want, why is Joe Saunders?

      • vin

        Because he’s cheaper, and therefore marketable to more teams? The talent wouldn’t be as high, but they can at least have some more options.

        (just a guess)

    • cmasone

      By who?

      If that’s the deal, you have to make it a 3-way in which the Angels have to make the deal with Saunders to get you those prospects. You can’t deal Roy Halladay and then start looking around to flip an expensive return piece for the pieces you actually want.

    • Mike bk

      then they should have the angels trade saunders for the prospects to be sure they can get them, then talk about halladay to the angels.

  • Steve H

    If Halladay gets trade, it won’t be soon, and it won’t be for nearly the package they are looking for. What team “needs” him? No one. Of course he’d help the Phillies, but they’ve made it to two WS without him. He’d help the Yankees, who just won a title without him. He’d help everyone, but at the price Toronto is supposedly demanding, he won’t go anywhere soon.

    • Guest

      Great point. I think want Toronto is banking on is not so much Halladay will help one of the contenders, but rather the Texeira “Swing Effect.” In other words, the Yankees, Angels, Phillies, and Sox know they can field a great team without Halladay. But what if they don’t get Halladay AND he goes to one of these major rivals? All of a sudden, the contending teams that don’t get Halladay have suffered a double punch: They don’t get the ace and another team that might stand in their way now has him.

      I think that’s what Toronto thinks it can use to drive up the price for Halladay. And there is a case there. Anyone think the AL East might have looked a little different last year if Texeira’s hat had a little red “B” on it instead of that sweet interlocking “NY”?

      (That said, I am still a bit reluctant to trade Jesus and Joba/Phil for Halladay. I don’t think I would be crushed if the Yankees did; but I would be just as happy if they didn’t).

      • Steve H

        I don’t think Toronto will be able to play teams off each other for one reason though, no one is desperate. The Phillies won in 08, the Sox in 07, the Angels in 02, and I don’t have to mention the Yankees. The Mets might be desperate, but don’t have shit to give up. If the Yankees hadn’t won in 2009, I think there would be a much better chance they’d go for it. If any of the above teams were aging and had a small window to win, maybe they’d go for it. There really isn’t a desperate, contending team that has a small window of opportunity out there that will make the plunge. Actually, that’s why the Rays could actually make some sense. They have a small window due to increasing salaries of their young players, and they have players available to trade. They could trade for him and let him go and recoup 2 picks. Of course Halladay would have to agree to go there, and to not get a long term deal.

        • Evil Empire

          If the Rays could do it without trading Wade Davis and ownership is willing to spend the money on a 1 year rental, it might be worth considering given their situation.

          Maybe going into the playoffs 2 out of 3 years would help the fanbase. For someone like them, where another push might just cause a positive material change in their fanbase (and thus revenue stream), that could be extra impetus to make a deal.

  • Wi-Fi Guy

    Has anyone thought about bringing possibly Mike Gonzalez for a set up role i mean you think about him and then mo’ that would be pretty nasty

    • Alex S

      i would totally bring him in but losing those draft picks would sting and we still have plenty of cheap options in the minors to shore up the bullpen

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Thought about it? Yes.

      Stopped thinking about it when he became a Type A arb decline and required a first rounder? Also yes.

      • dkidd

        i stopped when i remembered his absurd wind-up

    • Jake K.

      Don’t see the Yanks giving up their first round draft pick for him.

  • radnom

    Can someone explain to me why the Granderson trade let all of the “Gardner is better than Melky” nutjobs out of whatever hole they’ve been hiding in?

    • DP

      Uh oh….I hope Jamal doesn’t see this.

      /Actually I do.

      • DP

        /Actually I hope he does* Dammit.

      • radnom

        Jamal G. is one of them?

        For shame.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Not sure. They’re both fringy starters/4th OFs, so the pendulum of love or hate for them can swing back and forth at a moment’s notice.

      There’s three ways of dealing with this –

      Strategy A:
      Spend all winter examining minor league comps, Most Similar Batter at Age comparisons, splits, trendlines, linear weights, BABIPs, park effects breakdowns, CHONE predictions, UZR/150s, and frame-by-frame swing breakdowns to compile a detailed and thoroughly researched analysis of who is most likely to improve and who is most likely to plateau.

      Strategy B:
      Sign Mike Cameron, move them both to the bench, and make Strategy A totally interesting and utterly moot.

      Strategy C:
      Follow Sal/Bo/Grant/Lanny’s advice and have both Melky and Gardner executed, mob-style, because they both suck and won’t ever amount to shit. Sign Matt Holliday to a 7/150 to be the new starting LF and sign Johnny Damon to a 2/25 to be his backup, because we’re the Yankees and there’s no need for us to have a budget. Trade Joba, Montero, Nova, and Melvin Croussett to the Jays for Halladay; sign John Lackey at a 5/110 to be the 5th starter; sign Ben Sheets at a 2/30 to be the 8th inning Bridge to Mo; trade Phil Hughes, Zack McAllister, and Slade Heathcott to the Royals for Joakim Soria to be the Bridge to Sheets. Sign Aroldis Chapman to a 5/25 and then trade him, Gary Sanchez, Andrew Brackman, Arodys Vizcaino, and Kyle Higashioka to the Brewers for Prince Fielder to be our new DH. Sign Vlad Guerrero to a 1/15 to be our utility infielder. UZR sucks anyway, offense is all that matters. Offense and not having a budget.

      • Old Goat

        What? No Pujols?

      • 28 next year

        I love the Vlad as a utility infielder. Lolz

      • Jake K.

        We would win 150 games next year then spontaneously combust from too much awesomeness. It would be the end of the franchise.

      • vin

        “sign Ben Sheets at a 2/30 to be the 8th inning Bridge to Mo; trade Phil Hughes, Zack McAllister, and Slade Heathcott to the Royals for Joakim Soria to be the Bridge to Sheets. ”

        I thought they can’t trade Heathcott until 1 year after he was drafted?

        /completely missed the point

      • radnom

        Agreed with strategy B, but not I think it currently ranks 3rd on my priorities list.

        1. DH
        2. Pitching insurance
        3. LF

        The benefit of Cameron over Melky, while significant, is not as large as the benefit of priorities 1 or 2.

        • whizkid

          1. Re-sign Matsui for $7M / 1yr

          2. Non-tender Wang ($5-6 M) and Gaudin ($1-2M)
          Parlay that + $2-4M and get Sheets $8-9M / 1yr
          (Harden just got $7.5M)

          3.a) Melky in LF, Granderson in CF, Gardner to KC
          and replenish the farm
          b) Granderson in LF, Gardner in CF, Melky to Cubs
          (Gardner bats 2nd, Granderson 7th behind Posada)

      • Zack

        Plan C definately, we’re not the KANSAS CITY ROYALS

        /mr yankee’d

      • radnom


        They’re both fringy starters/4th OFs, so the pendulum of love or hate for them can swing back and forth at a moment’s notice.

        That makes them seem way more similar than they are. One of the two players has held his own with the bat in CF for multiple major league seasons, so even at or above league average, while the other has been completely overmatched in every significant stint spent above AAA. Neither has any business holding down LF.

      • A.D.

        I think one can just look at last offseasons posts for strategy A.

      • A.D.

        Sign Aroldis Chapman to a 5/25 and then trade him, Gary Sanchez, Andrew Brackman, Arodys Vizcaino, and Kyle Higashioka to the Brewers for Prince Fielder to be our new DH.

        This might have been my favorite, the issue would be is that according to Sal/Bo/Grant/Lanny Brackman is already an uber bust and worth nothing, he should just be DFAd to open up the precious 40 man roster spot.

    • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi
      • radnom

        Hahaha touche.

        Has anyone looked at “barry”‘s webpage? It explains a lot.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

        Word on the street is that there’s a new meme floating around?

        • radnom

          Source: Riveraveblues.com

        • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          Uhm, yeah, of course there is.

          Source: The interweb

  • Old Goat

    I do think the Phillies would be the destination that the Jays would like to Halladay to. The trouble is payroll.

    They currently have a good team that could be contending for the WS again. Halladay could put them over the top to be favorites.

    They have some players coming up on FA and they want to keep Lee. Werth is another that they probably would be reluctant to let go. Adding Halladay to those two makes their payroll quite a bit higher and they have said about budget concerns.

    Philly isn’t exactly a rich city, so despite having a good crowd going to games they can’t afford two big time pitchers at the prices they will likely get.

    Then after they lose one of them to FA, they also don’t have the young lower cost players to help fill in some holes.

    • Reggie C.

      If getting Halladay means not extending Cliff Lee, i think it’d still be worth it. I imagine Lee would be offered arbitration, and would net the Phils a 1st round + 1st round suppl picks. The Phils just got named organization of the year by BaseballAmerica , so they’re drafting really well recently.

      Of course, the Phils could simply sign Ben Sheets and roll the dice that he stays healthy.

      • vin

        That’s a tough ballpark to try to regain value in… of course Sheets wouldn’t have to pitch to the Philly lineup though.

    • Mike bk

      so they make a run at another title and let 1 or 2/3 of lee, roy and werth and stock up on draft picks to rebuild the farm. if they have brown and taylor one of them could step in for werth in a year.

  • ev

    I think the Jays will have to face reality soon about what they are getting for Halladay. One of Joba/Hughes + Montero may have been achievable before last season or midyear last season when Halladay would have helped a quest for two championship, but they cannot realistically expect the Yankees to give up Montero and Hughes/Joba for 1 year of Halladay at 16 million

  • larryf

    Let’s just have Gritner and Melkyway compete in spring training again! This time for LF instead of CF….

    • king of fruitless hypotheticals

      plus twentyeight.

  • owine

    Didn’t realize the Yankees signed Curtis Granderson.