Surprise! Tabata might be older than expected

February 7, 2010 by Mike Axisa 75 Comments

Via The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington admitted that former Yankee prospect Jose Tabata might actually be in his mid-20’s, instead of the 21 he’s believed to be. If you’ve stuck with me throughout all of my blogging adventures, then this shouldn’t be a surprise. There were rumblings Tabata was older than he claimed to be way back when he was in Rookie ball. “I mean the body… it’s hard to argue with the skeptics,” said Keith Law.

If true, Tabata’s prospect status would take a major hit given his complete inability to hit for power at such an advanced age (his best IsoP is .122, and came four years ago). The Xavier Nady–Damaso Marte trade would look that much better as well.

WIlliam

Just out of curiosity, but could IPK and Tabata have gotten it done for Santana? (Plus few lower level guys)
- 28 next year
  
  The Twins were adament on Joba or Hughes and then proposed Wang + Kennedy. I don’t think they would have accepted IPK + Tabata.
- http://twitter.com/JamalG_BB Jamal G.
  
  Brian Cashman was on WFAN during Spring Training 2008 and said the following two packages were on the table: (i.) Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and two prospects or (ii.) Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and a low-level prospect.
  
  Unfortunately, that is all I can recall about said interview, and not whether those packages were offered by the Yankees or asked for by the Twins.
  - Ghost of Scott Brosius
    
    Man, if that Wang deal was acceptable to the Twins, that would have been great for the Yankees in retrospect, get Johan without giving up Joba, Phil, or Ajax. Obviously hindsight is 20-20. I think part of the sadness of the Wang situation is that not only is he no longer usable for us, but we weren’t able to maximize his value in a trade at a time when many were predicting he might soon fall off a cliff.
28 next year

If Tabata is actually older, then people could shut up on calling the Nady-Marte trade a bust.
- http://frosthendu.blogspot.com/2010/01/normal-0-false-false-false.html Steve H
  
  If Marte’s performance in the World Series didn’t shut those people up, nothing will.
  - vin
    
    It may be short-sighted, but I’d rather have Marte’s strikeout of Utley in game 6 than the potential of Tabata. That was a huge moment, and he delivered (again).
    - http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
      
      Yeah, Marte was mucho dinero in the playoffs.
    - Slugger27
      
      i could have done without the obnoxious chest pounding, but that strikeout was the final nail in the coffin
      - pat
        
        Biggest strikeout of his life, I’m willing to let the guy be a little excited.
        
        http://www.thechuckknoblog.com/ JobaWockeeZ
        
        Seriously. It’s the World Series. It’s a big moment. Who the hell wouldn’t be excited when striking on of the best hitters in the game in a dangerous situation?
        
        Slugger27
        
        i think u guys are overreacting to my comment
        
        http://iheartrerun.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/rerun.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi
        
        They disagreed, they didn’t overreact. There’s a difference. Nobody called you or your opinion dumb, they just said they disagree and explained why.
  - Hey ZZ
    
    To be fair didn’t Marte technically sign as a FA after the season? So, we could have actually had Marte for his great run in the playoffs this year without trading Tabata.
    - Mike Bk
      
      well technically if you want to go there we declined his option and then gave him the 3 year deal, so if he had gone elsewhere the option could have been picked up and not been on the market to sign at all.
  - MikeD
    
    I’m not sure how anyone can declare the deal a bust. Nady contributed to the Yankees in 2008 and Marte contributed big time in the World Series. If Tabata goes on to the one of the best players in the NL well, we all have the right to reconsider the deal. Right now it’s been okay.
- Slugger27
  
  it was never really a bad move… it didnt turn out well, but that was no fault of cashmans
  
  the yankees stood to get production from nady in a peak year along with a solid lefty option plus draft picks… both for below market value
  
  they mishandled marte after the year by signing him to a 3 year deal when they should have offered arb, and that move was certainly a bad one, but the trade itself wasnt… nadys injury couldnt have been expected
  
  nady in peak year, marte, plus 3 expected draft picks >> tabata and ohlendorf
  - 28 next year
    
    i never thought it was a bad move. A lot of people though think that because other than the playoffs, Marte has been bust and Nady has been injured and the Yankees missed the playoffs.
    - pat
      
      Marte was also injured. People’s fascination with using the word bust is mind boggling.
      - 28 next year
        
        I know he is injured but based on the trade, other than the World Series he wasn’t what we wanted. I would make that trade every time. It is just Marte did not live up to expectations with teh injuries. He made up for it, at least in my mind with the World Series.
        
        Slugger27
        
        i agree… the point isnt that marte/nady didnt meet expectations, the point is that at the time of the trade, the yankees had every right to believe that they WOULD continue their expected performance
        
        in my mind, that makes it an ok trade
      - Roger
        
        jesus has been around since like 0 bc since the dinosaurs and stuff why are we calling monteros age into question now, grow up man.
- Bo
  
  How is it a bust? Marte’s WS performance made the trade a winner no matter what these guys turn out to be.
Tom Zig

They probably never will shut up. The trade made perfect sense at the time and marte had an awesome world series. So it was never a bust in my mind.
Slugger27

im shocked

//bo’d
- JMK the Overshare’s Mystique and Aura
  
  Well played, sir.
WIlliam

While the trade probably worked out well for the yankees, some people will say they could have gotten more for Tabata at the time.
- http://iheartrerun.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/rerun.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi
  
  Yeah I’m sure some people would say that… But we have to remember that, at the time, Tabata was a mess as a 19 year old in AA (both on the field and off), Nady was in the middle of a career year (143 OPS+ at the time of the trade, at age 29), Marte was (and is) a highly regarded left-handed reliever, and the Yankees had serious, immediate needs both in the outfield and in the bullpen at that moment and they were still in playoff contention.
  
  I didn’t love giving up Tabata and all that pitching at the time – it’s always tough, as a fan, when you follow the prospects only to see them traded away before reaching their potential – but it’s still a tough deal to knock, even with the benefit of hindsight. They gave up some potential for some immediate, MLB talent. If there was a long-term pattern of them selling off all their prospects for aging and overrated players (cough 80s cough) then I could understand the concern, but this was really the only mid-season trade they’ve made the last few years to fill an immediate MLB need in which they gave up good minor league talent/potential. They should be making those deals here and there, it’s when it becomes a way of life that it becomes a problem. Context is important.
Reggie C.

The pirates aren’t buyers at the trading deadline, so its not like the Pirates care much at how Tabata’s viewed by other clubs. Tabata’s been playing professionally for almost 6 years so it was time to put-up-or-shut-up. Tabata better capitalize on his AFL performance if he hopes to figure in the Pirates’s plans for LF.
Cecala

I always liked this trade. I liked Nady a lot more than Tebata,so I never really saw it as a bust. It is a shame that Nady got hurt because this deal would have been a steal.
- Slugger27
  
  had we gotten 2 draft picks for marte, it would have probably been a steal even considering nadys injury
  
  if nady was healthy and performed at a 2-2.5 WAR level all year and we had gotten a supp pick for him, i think it would have been a MAJOR steal
  
  sigh… what could have been….
  - pat
    
    Riiight, winning the WS with Marte coming up huge in the playoffs is clearly the 2nd best turnout.
    - Slugger27
      
      if u believe that marte was the difference between winning and losing the WS, then your sarcasm is warranted
      
      however, id have taken my chances without marte in the WS if it meant 2 extra 1st-round draft picks… im of the belief they would have won it anyway
      
      your point is noted either way, but i think most of us would agree not offering arb to him after the 08 season was a mistake…
      - Steve in PDX
        
        how would we have gotten 2 first rounders?
        
        Slugger27
        
        type A status FA
        
        Steve in PDX
        
        yea, that’s a first (maybe) and a supp
      - pat
        
        When he’s healthy Marte is one of the best LHRP in the game. For a team full of aging vets looking to make one last run before transitioning to a more youthful core I’d rather have Marte. I hear what you’re saying about the picks but I’m not gonna call anything that helps the team win now a mistake. Especially when that guy brought the pwn in the playoffs and got a bunch of tough outs.
Slugger27

while we have reason to doubt his reported age, it is a non-issue to us

does anyone understand this? how could one of their top 5 prospects being 5 years older than hes alleged to be not be an issue? its a MAJOR issue, right?

i mean if we had found out ajax was really 25 or 26, that wouldve been a HORRIBLE turn of events… whats the difference with tabata? how in the hell is it a “non-issue”???
- 28 next year
  
  non-issue for us. He could be 45 for all we care. He is not our property anymore.
  - DP
    
    That’s what the Pirates GM said.
  - Slugger27
    
    no no no, i should have been more clear…. thats what the pirates GM said
    
    so when hes saying “us” its referring to HIS team, the pirates
    - 28 next year
      
      oh, well in that case it is entirely different.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  It is an issue, whether they want to admit it or not. If he’s in his mid-20’s, there’s very little left for him to grow into compared to if he was 21.
  - Slugger27
    
    i just found it a confusing quote… i mean if cashman had said ajax being 26 was a “non-issue” to the yankees, i would have thought hes out of his fucking mind
- Reggie C.
  
  Its likely a “non-issue” from Huntington’s point-of-view because he hasnt traded a highly-regarded Pirates prospect in a while.
  
  If anything, Huntington now knows that trading Tabata is pointless so why not hope Tabata turns into a Melky Cabrera-like option.
  - Slugger27
    
    i dont think they traded for tabata hoping he was melky cabrera, melky cabreras grow on trees
    
    they were intrigued at an outside chance hed be a 5-tool player at a premium position… this news basically shatters all of that
    - Big Juan
      
      Switch hitting center fielders with above average arms don’t exactly grow on trees.
      - Reggie C.
        
        Absolutely True.
        
        If i’m Tabata, there’s two things i’m focused on maximizing: OBP & strong corner OF defensive play. McCutchen has locked the CF job, but since Ryan Church and Garrett Jones aren’t long-term answers, Tabata’s got a shot. Tabata still showed an ability to hit for average, though projecting more power at this point isn’t realistic.
      - Slugger27
        
        u boversimplified things
        
        melky is a 1 tool player who has posted 3.3 WAR in 4 total seasons… being a switch-hitter means nothing when 270/330/385/716 is what you produce while being a switch-hitter
        
        hes a 4th OFer, which dont get me wrong, 4th OFers have their uses…. but they certainly arent the centerpiece of trades, at least not for good teams
        
        guys like melky basically lose all of their value when they hit arbitration
        
        http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno
        
        This.
        
        Big Juan
        
        Yeah, I don’t disagree with any of that.
        
        What I said was more like…oh never mind. It just wasn’t a very good comment. I’m particularly fond of Melky, so I overvalue him most likely. Although, I think it’s fair to say you’d rather have Melky than most 4th outfielders. And there are a lot teams he would start for.
    - Reggie C.
      
      I know Huntington (or any other GM for that matter) would’ve hoped that Tabata could turn out to be a starting caliber ML outfielder.
      
      That’s just not realistic if Tabata is 25 … which Huntington wouldnt have known at the time of the trade. Right now, Huntington has to make the best of a bad situation, so if he suspects Tabata’s really 25, Huntington can only hope that Tabata needs a season at AAA before ML consideration.
http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime (Optimovelist Primus)

It’d help explain his 40 year old wife…
- Tom Swift
  
  Not really. Is your novel about baseball?
  - http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime (Optimovelist Primus)
    
    Yeah. Have taken a bit of a break but will get back to it soon.
    - Tom Zig
      
      I still want my autographed copy
- Slugger27
  
  my guess is shes actually late 40s, so no, it probably wouldnt
- MikeD
  
  Oh, no. Maybe Tabata is actually 34! That would actually be funny.
DP

In other news, Peyton Manning throws footballs accurately.
Tom Zig

His celebrations weren’t anything on the level of K-rod, papelbon, or valverde. I like it when ballplayers show a little emotion out there. No one likes robots.
- Slugger27
  
  valverde is the most obnoxious player in the league… if u havent seen him come in from the bullpen, then u havent even seen him at his worst
  
  its like watching a wrestler walk to the ring to defend his WCW title…. except worse
  - Tom Zig
    
    http://strotty.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/valverde.jpg
- Tom Zig
  
  Hmm messed up on the reply button. silly blackberry
Zack

So does this let Cash move up one more belt level on his ninja status?
- whozat
  
  Nah, if he did that on purpose, it’d be sleazy. And grievance-worthy.
  - Zack
    
    I meant it more of just moving a player a year before his prospect level just basically dropped to 0. And it was more of a joke than anything else.
    - scooter
      
      At the time of the deal, I thought the Yankees sold low on Tabata – he was having an awful year up to that point, including getting pulled out of 2 games in Trenton for not hustling:
      http://pendingpinstripes.net/2008-articles/may/tabatas-at-it-again.html
      
      Joe Sheehan (BP analysis published in SI) thought the Pirates made a smart deal, buying low on a risky talent with a high ceiling:
      http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/07/28/bp.nadymarteblake/
      
      With Matsui and Posada done, and the team still in contention, Cashman had to take a shot at a playoff spot – which he did.
      
      Huntington’s point is valid if the Pirates are keeping Tabata… but if these rumors are true, his trade value is severely reduced.
vin

Just curious… how certain are we of Montero’s age? Not sure if falsifying ages is common in Venezuala. I also understand that it probably doesn’t matter as much since he’s already displayed power and other advanced skills.
- MikeD
  
  As sure as anyone can be about young Latin players, which means not too confident. That said, I haven’t really heard any rumblings about Montero.
  
  If he was, let’s say, 21 last year and not 19, what he did in AA would still be impressive, but it would knock him down a few pegs when scouts rate the best prospects in the game. If he was 22 last year, he’d still be the Yankees best prospect, but he’d become more ordinary. If he was 23, then I suggest a total reevalution would be in order.
  
  The real loser would be Montero. If he was older then the Yankees might have moved him a little more quickly and he might have already completed a season at AAA.
  - JMK the Overshare’s Mystique and Aura
    
    Wasn’t Montero thought to have been 16 at the time of the signing but it was revealed he was 17? And because of this they lowered the bonus given to him.
    
    It would be pretty weird that his age jumped again and he were two years older than thought, and not just one.
    
    I suppose it’s possible, though doubtful.
- Mike P
  
  As sure as we are that Jesus never lies.
- Accent Shallow
  
  Venezuela isn’t like the DR . . . I’d trust the age of a Venezuelan player, generally.
  - JGS
    
    Tabata is Venezuelan too…
- http://www.teamnerdrage.com dr mrs the yankee
  
  Venezuela has better record-keeping and not as much forgery going on as the DR. There hasn’t been a lot of age falsification coming out of VZ.
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