Like most teams, Yanks have a number of injury risks
ByThroughout the spring, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has run through his team health reports. Today he hits the Yankees (sub. required). There aren’t many surprises in the article, as I suppose is the case for fans of each team. We’re intimately familiar with the team, and that includes each player’s injury history. The reports seem better resources for teams of which you’re not a fan. But, in any case, we’ll have a look at what Carroll says about the Yankees.
Carroll notes that the Yankees have lost a lot of money to injured players over the past few years, but that’s to be expected. They spend more on players, so when those players get hurt they will lose more to their DL stints. Last year they were again among the league leaders in dollars lost to DL time, mainly because Alex Rodriguez missed a month, but also because Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang missed almost the entire season. What would interest me is a breakdown of time lost to the DL as a percentage of overall payroll. That might make the Yankees look a bit better.
Even with the total dollars lost, the Yankees have done a good job keeping their best players on the field. A-Rod, minus some fatigue in June, remained healthy following his surgery. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, two of the team’s elder statesmen, avoided injury in 2009. Jorge Posada spent a couple weeks on the DL, though not related to his surgically repaired shoulder. That held up just fine. Also, other than Marte in the bullpen and Wang in the rotation, the pitching staff held up remarkably well. So, again, it appears that the Yankees lost more money to the DL than most teams last season because they just spent more on players.
Surprisingly, Carroll lists Joba Chamberlain as the Yankees’ big risk. Not Nick Johnson, not Posada, not even A.J Burnett. His explanation is that the Yankees devised the Joba Rules because they thought he wouldn’t have stayed healthy otherwise. I suppose, though, that the same could be said for any 23-year-old pitcher who maxed out at just over 100 innings previously in his career. That doesn’t take away from Joba’s risk this season, though.
In terms of the red-yellow-green rankings, there aren’t many head scratchers. Mariano Rivera in the red is strange, but Carroll explains the rating and further says that it likely won’t much matter. Nick Swisher rates a yellow even though he hasn’t hit the DL since 2005. He hasn’t missed more than two days with an injury, at least according to Baseball Injury Tool since 2007. Still, the strangest ranking is Phil Hughes as a red. It’s not that Hughes doesn’t present an injury risk — he did, after all, miss significant time in both 2007 and 2008. However, Carroll’s reasoning seemingly falls victim to the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy:
Hughes is in much the same boat as Chamberlain, but the difference is that Hughes has broken down under a starter’s workload even when not terribly taxed. As a reliever, he really seemed to find himself. For all the talk about Chamberlain being pushed to the pen, I have no idea why anyone would take Hughes out. As a starter, he’s very red. As a pure reliever, he’d be a very low yellow.
No, he didn’t break down as a reliever last year. Yes, he got hurt as a starter previously in his career. That doesn’t create causation, though. Young pitchers get hurt. It happens. Hughes also came up to the majors as a 20-year-old and might not have been physically ready for that type of workload. I can understand why he’s a risk, but again, I don’t think the reasoning is particularly sound.
Overall, the outlook for the Yankees in 2010 appears fair. The older players present injury risk, but other than Posada it doesn’t appear they’re more risky than any other group of veterans. Also, as Carroll notes, the Yanks do have some options if they lose certain players to the DL. Anything can happen with injuries, as we’ve seen over the past few years, but right now, on March 23, the Yankees are doing well. We have at least that to be thankful for.
114 Comments»
RAB Info
The Founders
Mike Axisa, Ben Kabak, Joe Pawlikowski
Editor-In-Chief
Mike Axisa Archives | Email
Managing Editors
Ben Kabak Archives | E-mail
Joe Pawlikowski Archives | E-mail
Contributing Editors
Larry Koestler (Archives)
Moshe Mandel (Archives)
Eric Schultz (Archives)
Weekend Writers
Hannah Ehrlich (Archives)
Matthew Warden (Archives)
Special Contributor
J.R. O'Grady (Archives)
Technical Consultant
Jay Gordon
Subscribe to RAB by RSS
Follow @RiverAveBlues
Search RAB
Yankees News from YESNetwork.com
- Yankees activate Nova from disabled list, send Betances to Triple-A
- Yankees down Rays in series opener, but lose Granderson to broken pinkie knuckle
- Curtis Granderson leaves game after fracturing knuckle on his pinkie finger
- Teixeira to play for Double-A Trenton Thunder on Wednesday and Thursday
- Teixeira plans to play in Minors Wednesday
- Brian Cashman speaks to media about injured Yankees pitchers
- Alberto Gonzalez clears waivers, will report to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
- Seattle Mariners option Jesus Montero to Triple-A
- Thriving with the Yankees, Vernon Wells fulfilling his father's dream
- Kuroda leaves early as Orioles win rubber game
Banner Design By
The Tyler Austin Watch
It is scary, we were able to stay so healthy in 2009, sans Wanger. It really makes me wonder what 2010 has in store for us on the health front.
Luckily, if any team can overcome injury-related adversity, it’s the Yankees.
sans wanger, a-rod, nady
Marte, Damon, Posada, Molina
Oh whoops, I misremembered that play where the ball sat on the wall as last year, not 2008. My b Johnny.
Exactly how many games did you want Damon to play in?
You guys are kind of nitpicking, we were a healthy team last year. Infield, starting outfield, starting pitchers, DH, all very healthy compared to most years/teams.
Sorry, sorry. Like I said, I had the wrong year in mind for Damon.
Word no problema, I added that before I saw the updated post.
i’d say we were on the healthy side of the spectrum, but it wasn’t as abnormally so as you make it seem. teams don’t typically lose more than one or two major contributors for major chunks of the year, they just get several minor injuries and/or lose a few smaller-role players as well. It’s not normal for a team to lose it’s best hitter or best pitcher for a whole year. It happens, but it’s pretty far from the norm.
Eh, we lost a 3rd baseman for a month, a catcher for 20 games, and Nady for the year. Melky went down for 5 or so days after running into the wall. Swish, Johnny, Jetes, Robby, Teix, Matsui(not including knee drainage) and Melky were all healthy. Then Jorge and Al both were healthy for about 6 of 7 months, including post season. That stands out to me as pretty healthy. As for the starters, everyone other than Wang was healthy and productive. The pen did have a few issues, as expected every year.
Eh, we lost a 3rd baseman for a month, a catcher for 20 games, and Nady for the year.
… and our 4th starter for the year, and both of our top two Opening Day setup men for about 80-90% of the year.
ARod, Posada, Nady, Wang, Marte, Bruney.
The first section of that post was only dealing with the offense. If you read on, you would have found;
As for the starters, everyone other than Wang was healthy and productive. The pen did have a few issues, as expected every year.
Eh, I’m emphasizing.
And Marte, Bruney, Ransom, Gardner.
Let’s not get crazy throwing Ransom in there. That was a good thing.
Ransom’s injury lead to more PT for Angel Berroa. I wouldn’t call that “a good thing:
Based on Girardi’s love affair with Ransom, I’m willing to take 2 weeks of Berroa getting ABs over Ransom being on the roster all year.
I constantly hear/read people talking about “Girardi’s love affair with (insert player who I hate here)”.
I don’t see it. You know what Girardi loves? He loves to give all the players on his roster a chance to either contribute or prove that their worthless and get DFA’d. He played Ransom because Ransom was what he had, and he was either going to help the team or he was going to play his way out of a job and clear a spot for someone else.
That’s not “falling in love”, that’s managing.
You know who used to fall in love with players?
Torre, that’s who. As we’ve discussed ad infinitum, he permanently burned out almost half-a-dozen bullpen arms. He was the cause of the “Joba Rules”; Cashman knew he couldn’t be trusted not to trash Joba’s arm. (aside: if Torre realized what Cash was doing, how humiliated he would have been!)
He also kept inserting utility players that couldn’t hit, and veterans past their sell-by date, over younger (“unproven” in his mind), more productive players.
I think people who accuse Girardi of this just aren’t used to a manager who, as TSJC said, uses his whole roster enough to keep everyone in shape, but not overused.
Meet the New Boss. Different from the Old Boss.
I think people who accuse Girardi of this just aren’t used to a manager who, as TSJC said, uses his whole roster enough to keep everyone in shape, but not overused.
Yup.
I’ve held positions in management, overseeing a staff as big as 200. All our supervisors were instructed to do the same thing:
“Manage them up or manage them out”.
Give EVERYONE opportunities to either succeed or fail. It allows you to promote and grow the talented people who do well, and fire/demote/marginalize the untalented/disinterested ones who fail.
Yup.
Along with “hire great people, then get out of their way”.
I don’t normally say this about Girardi, but honestly Pena had proven himself a worthy backup by the time Ransom was healthy, Ransom had sucked ass in April, and yet we sent down Pena when we should’ve just kept Ransom down.
It’s a pretty tiny issue so I’m not really going to sit here and bash Girardi about it. Cody Ransom sucks. That is all.
I have to admit there was wailing and gnashing of teeth in my apartment over Girardi’s continued use of Ransom when Peña was clearly better…
I guess having an awesome bus-accident-survivor story >>> actually hitting.
Well A-Rod missed a month rehabbing and was, under the circumstances, healthy for more than the majority of 2009.
I did kind of discount Nady, forgetting he won the job out of ST.
Nady would have been an ideal bench player last year, though, and that month of A-Rod meant about 1.5 fewer wins for the club, not even including whatever effect he may have had on Tex. Also, while he walked a ton and managed to keep his OBP solid, he was not quite up to his normal level as a hitter till july, and not as a fielder pretty much all season.
What would interest me is a breakdown of time lost to the DL as a percentage of overall payroll. That might make the Yankees look a bit better.
Beyond the Boxscore did this about a month ago–here is the spreadsheet of every team going back to 2002 with salary lost, total salary, percentage of total salary lost, total DL trips, and days on the DL
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdG1VYjE4WmZheS0td1ZqeXBaZkxiVnc&hl=en
404 error
Also, I feel like if someone did this for 2009, they should simply take out the Mets entirely because that’s just unfair.
hmm…it works for me
well, here is the BtB post, they have a link to that same spreadsheet in there
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c.....nd-year-to
The 09 Mets are surprisingly enough in 7th on that list, and geez the White Sox are doing something right
Worked for me.
Yeah, in fact Ben linked that article about a month back when we learned about Gene Monohan’s health problems.
http://riveraveblues.com/2010/.....lub-24236/
Why would anyone even begin to think he broke down under a starters workload? His first season he got hurt in his second major league start of the year. And then he got hurt after not even having thrown that many innings the year before and not having thrown a lot that year. I don’t even understand where someone would begin to make the connection that he can’t hold up a starters workload.
nods in agreement
Way to ruin the narrative.
At the end of Pretty Woman, Richard Gere gets Julia Roberts.
Whoops, did I just ruin another story for you?
Bruce Willis was a ghost the entire time!!!!!!11111
/obligatory’d
IEBTC
Jesus dies at the end of The Passion Of The Christ.
Ha.
I was actually going to do Jesus dies at the end of the Bible, but then I remembered the Bible doesn’t actually end with His death, but with THE APOCALYPSE.
http://tinyurl.com/icallbullshitonthat
Here’s your pic:
http://tinyurl.com/57ytzq (safe)
and if that isn’t the coming of the apocalypse, I don’t know what is.
I sets ‘em up, you knocks ‘em down.
Yup, pretty much no reason to assume workload had anything to do with any of Hughes’ injuries.
Dont know how they can’t put NJ (history) or Posada (age + position) as the greatest risk on the team.
You have to put NJ or Posada as the biggest risks.
A set up man like Joba isnt. Either is a 5th starter in Hughes.
heh
A set up man like Joba isnt. Either is a 5th starter in Hughes.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/neither
Trying to actually parse that “sentence” as written is tying my thought processes in knots.
I’m going to stop. My brain hurts.
ICWUDTYNFM
(mouse-over for explanation)
haha i was going to type something like this but then O:S so…
I couldn’t help myself.
And I’ve never yet replied to a SBLGLBGLBGLBL post, so I figured I was owed some latitude.
And besides, Pete answered first!! Yeah, yeah, that’s it! And Tommie too!
Look to the bracelet!
This comment
————
My head
https://reminderband.com/order/index.php
We can get 100 LiveStrong-esque bracelets for only 75 cents each.
I want a bracelet that says “W.W.D.B.D.?” Because whenever I’m at a mental/emotional crossroads and I’m not sure of what to do, I try and live by the shining guidelines of Derek Bell.
Right, I should’ve remembered that. I was here for that.
I just missed the connection.
We metablog and hyperportmanteau.
Hmmmm. What color should the bracelets be?
Perhaps…brown? As in…
I was thinking black and yellow. Pirates colors.
OK, that’s another direction. I was thinking more of the color of a big stinking pile of sh…
[sings]
Bo Bice fools no one.
Bo-nanna-fanna-fo-fanna?
/dated myself’d
IETTAIWIKHTDIAW
(I enjoy this tactic and I wish I knew how to do it as well)
Dude, you gotta get with the abbr or acronym tag.
It’s easy; just put the full spelling into the title attribute, like this:
<abbr title=”Get More T & A”>GMTA</abbr>
See? GMTA
O:S
me likee.
fail.
second try:
O:S
winnar!
STQNBIT?
Technically, they shouldn’t. But, seeing as it’s his first offense…
IJTTO
Dammit.
IJTTO
Why won’t it let me space?
Or even show up? Sigh.
Looks like you left out the
title=”The text to show up”
part, inside the bracket after “abbr”.
TT
Ah, left out the quotes.
TYVMS
You are welcome!
Wait, how did you actually get the HTML carat characters to show up?
Everytime I type a “” WordPress just ignores them (which it’s probably going to do now)…
Yup.
“>” seems to work. The opposite? No.
You gotta use the character entities:
< for <
and
> for >
Again:
HTML Wizards FTW!
Okay, so, let’s see:
< test >
Fail.
Don’t type the entity for the ampersand. Actually type it, as in, press & hold shift then press the 7 key.
Then type the letters “l” then “t”, then type a semi-colon.
Keep trying, you’ll get it!
If you do it right, it shows up in the Preview.
<: >:
Shows up right in the preview… doesn’t post right.
Hmmm…maybe it’s a Mac thing?
Gawddamm Comuniss technawlogy!
Try the numeric equivalents:
< = <
> = >
Ouch! Now I got bitten!!
that should be:
ampersand-hash sign-6-0-;
and
ampersand-hash sign-6-2-;
Replace the ampersand & hash with their actual equivs: shift-7 and shift-3. And don’t put the dashes “-” in, obviously.
Ah, the hashtag pound! You left that out before. Let’s try:
< and >
(hangs head)
< and >
THERE IT IS
<joyed>YES</joyed>
Whew!!
Thought we were gonna have to hand you a whole case of Pinstripe DFA IPA!
For the record, when you do it the first way, with lt and gt, you don’t use the #.
Gracias.
De nada, Mr. Overly-Large Member.
(From one to another)
(nods)
wow to all of this. now i know how sportswriters feel when they think about advanced stats
FWIW, I have Joba as an injury risk in 2010 as well.
/not divulging proprietary secrets
//also not drafting joba in any fantasy leagues
///
I have some fantasy advice for those in the RAB leagues as well:
Ryan Braun: .240, 9 HR, 38 RBI
Tim Lincecum: 5-17, 6.45 ERA, 1.78 WHIP
Boof Bonser (per PeteAbe): 20-3, 0.98 ERA, 0.45 WHIP
Boof Bonser: Long reliever candidate had a big setback Monday when he was tattooed by the Rays and then reported pain in his right groin. He is out of options but the Sox could stash him on the DL.
-PeteAbe, like three hours ago
“The move for Boof was no goof” -PeteAbe, after like one decent ST start for him
Yeah I was referring to shit like that. Dude has a serious crush on Boof Bonser. I guess cause they both have the goatee sloping down the double chin thing going on.
What, are you his doctor? Or employed by the Yankees?
ooh a logicFAIL. i love spotting one in the wild.
Oh, great. One of those.
Look, you can talk out of your ass all you want, but unless you’re going to provide something substantive, you’re worse than Will Carroll.
/sigh
I have Chamberlain pegged for an injury risk in 2010. If you don’t like that, and you want to pick a fight with me, then I suggest you…don’t. Because I don’t care if you’re offended by it. And I will proceed to ignore.
There’s a difference between “I think Joba is at an injury risk in 2010 because that’s my opinion”, and “I have a reason to think (inside scoop from a doctor, biomechanics info, proprietary injury risk analysis system) that Joba is an injury risk.”
One is your opinion and that’s fine, we can respect/ignore that depending. The other is based on solid data and how you interpret that data, which may be accurate or inaccurate. I’m just saying there’s a significant difference between the two.
/not divulging proprietary secrets
(waves hands)
These aren’t the droids you’re looking for. We can go about our business.
Move along.
-Move along! Move along!
So I can continue to ignore Will Carroll and not miss anything? Good.
Full steam ahead.
If you two ignore Carroll, and BP at large, then you’re going to miss…
…
all the times they post an article about a topic that has been covered ad nauseum in the SABR world and then pretend like they were first to the party.
OK…full steam ahead.
Meh, I’m not a huge fan of BP but they’ve been very influential to sabermetrics. I also like Funck and Hoffman quite a bit.
That said, not impressed with Carroll or Goldstein.
I love to…
Oh, you said “Funck“. Nevermind…
Move along, nothing to see here.
These aren’t the droids you’re looking for…
I like their new hires. Tommy, Swartz, and Carleton are worth a read.
That schmuck Joe at ESPN’s TMI Blog is a real moron, though. Writes like an idiot, smells like a diaper full of Indian food.
Yeah, I shouldn’t have included BP at large. I was more referring to Carroll’s embarrassing “Leading the Discussion” article and his dismissal of Tango.
dismissing tango is always dumb. i’m not sure if he’s ever lost a public argument