I don’t think even the most diehard of fans expected fifth starter suddenly turned third starter Phil Hughes to be as good as he has been through four starts. He’s allowed just nine singles and one homer through 25 innings, which mean the league is hitting just .124 off the 23-year-old. However, as Eno at Bloomberg Sports points out, Hughes has also been really lucky. That ultra-low average is backed up by a a microscopic .162 BABIP, and he’s also stranded 87.4% of the batters than have reached base against him. As those two regress back to normalcy, his 1.44 ERA will start to look more like his 4.23 xFIP, which is still pretty damn good.
The article isn’t all doom-and-gloom, Eno definitely gives Hughes props for the improvements he’s made and the natural progression of a young starter. Make sure you check it out, it covers both ends of the spectrum.