Archive for Phil Hughes

Feb
04

Joba and Hughes to the pen!

Posted by: Joseph Pawlikowski | Comments (70)

Yesterday, the debate began all over again, as if we hadn’t made our arguments a hundred times over. With just one open spot in the starting rotation, either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain will start the season in the bullpen. Ben tackled the topic yesterday, noting how Joba is saying all the right things — and doing them, too, as he’s in camp early. What he didn’t do is link to a Joel Sherman column about how the Yankees have supposedly already pegged Joba for the pen. He took the idea one step further, into pretty crazy territory.

Why not put both Joba and Hughes in the pen? That would, he claims, make the role of fifth starter even less necessary, because of the Yankees’ high-powered offense and, with both young pitchers in tow, their lights out bullpen. He at least admitted that it would hinder the development of either one into a future starter. With Andy Pettitte’s and Javy Vazquez’s contracts up after this season, the Yankees will need one, if not both, to hit the rotation in 2011.

While many of us just wrote off the idea as crazy, Dave Pinto, creative as he is, proposed a different type of idea. What if, instead of using Hughes and Chamberlain as one-inning setup men, the Yankees deployed them as bridges to Mariano unto themselves? In other words, they take over when the starter exits, and they pitch from that point until the ninth. If the Yankees rack up the score late, they could even pitch the ninth themselves, further increasing their innings totals.

In theory, I love the idea. I’ve long advocated changing the way teams use their bullpens, with a trend towards the multi-inning reliever. Having two pitchers in this role would help, as they could cover most late-inning situations, with the short relievers taking over when the starter goes seven and the game is close. But this is all theoretical. How would this work in practice?

April seems like the best opportunity for this type of bullpen scheme. Pitchers are still getting into the groove, and it seems like starters pitch fewer innings per start in April than any other month. That was true, at least, for the Yankees. Last April the Yankees starters pitched 126.1 innings, out of 197.1 total. That includes Wang’s three short starts, so it skews the sample in a way, but if the Yankees use both Hughes and Chamberlain in the bullpen they’ll have a fifth starter who, while not as bad as 2009 Wang, still probably won’t go shutting out opponents for eight innings.

In nine of the 22 starts, the starter did not make it out of the sixth inning. In an additional three starts, the starter went exactly six innings. These are the opportunities for the super relievers. Either Hughes or Chamberlain would enter in this situation and pitch up to, perhaps including, the ninth inning. As an experiment, let’s see how this could have panned out in April 2009, ignoring that some of the starts were made by Hughes and Chamberlain themselves.

Obviously this is a very rough estimate of when and how much they could pitch, and clearly the 2010 innings will not go the same as 2009. Using that as a guideline, however, it appears that in the super relief role, Hughes and Joba could get close to the number of innings they’d get as starters. Not quite to that level — Joba pitched 23 innings in April 2009 — but it would be pretty close. Plus, since they’ll prepare in spring training as starters, their arms can probably handle longer stints earlier in the year.

This accomplishes a few things. First, it reduces the need for a 12-man pitching staff. With Joba, Hughes, and Mo covering almost 50 innings in relief, the Yanks shouldn’t need four other guys to cover the rest. Second, it allows them both to keep their innings up while also keeping them manageable. It would be much easier to keep Hughes under his innings limit if deployed in this manner. Third, it keeps them ready to fill in if a starter goes down — or if the fifth starter just isn’t working out.

Again, this is all theoretical. We have no way of knowing if this scheme can come close to working in practice. Can both pitchers adjust to this usage schedule, pitching two to four inning stints every three or four days? Also, what happens if the Yanks’ starters dominate one turn through the rotation? That might mean one inning each for Joba and Hughes over five days. There’s plenty of unpredictability in this model, and the Yankees might not favor that for their young starters.

The risk involved probably makes this idea a nonstarter, but it certainly has merits. It allows young pitchers to transition from AAA to the majors without jumping in as full-time starters. It allows teams to more easily manage their innings. It keeps them stretched out, so they can jump into a rotation spot in case of injury. But it also hasn’t really been done, at least to my knowledge, in recent years, and we don’t know what kind of effect these usage patterns will have on a pitcher’s arm. Maybe some small-market team will try this one day. Until then, I doubt a team like the Yankees will take any path except the traditional.

Credit: AP Photo/Matt Slocum

Categories : Pitching
Comments (70)

In two weeks, everything old will be new again. Pitchers and catchers will make their ways down to Tampa or Arizona. They’ll run; they’ll throw; they’ll have pitchers’ fielding practice; and everyone will champion the return of baseball for yet another year of America’s Pastime.

For many, Spring Training is the time to rehash old story lines. This player vows to have a better year. That player is in the best shape of his life. This team feels its their year. You know the drill. For the Yankees, Spring Training means … Joba Chamberlain Drama! Who would have guessed?

As we all know, Joba has been subjected to more hand-wringing over his development over the last three years than any pitcher should be. He come up to the Majors in 2007 when the Yankees were in desperate need of bullpen help, and because Joe Torre could not be trusted with his relievers, the Yanks instituted Joba Rules. Then, as they transitioned him into a starting role in 2008, they adjusted the Rules to fit an innings limit. Then, in 2009, when Joba still had to pitch to an innings limit and be ready for post-season service, the Yanks tried to cap his innings in August.

Throughout this approach, Joba’s numbers suffered. An ace starter in college and the Minors, he started out strong in 2007 and carried that through to August 2008 when he suffered a shoulder injury in Texas. For reasons never discussed — was he injured? did he change his mechanics? — Joba in 2009 never regained the velocity he had a starter in 2008. He struggled through a sub-par 2009, going 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA and just 133 strike outs in 157.1 innings pitched. His walks were up; his home run totals were; his effectiveness was down.

In the postseason, though, Joba seemingly rediscovered his form. He threw 6.1 innings over 10 games, struck out 7 and allowed just a pair of runs. He walked just one, and although opponents hit an ugly .333/.345/.630 against him in a very limited sample size, he seemed more aggressive on the mound. As many — including one who shall remain nameless — have assumed today, Joba isn’t guaranteed anything for 2010. He’ll face competition for the fifth starter spot, and many still would prefer to see the Yanks waste a live arm on some mythical game where the eighth inning is more important than the previous seven frames.

Joba, though, and the Yanks will have none of that for now. Chamberlain spoke yesterday with reporters and said all the right things. He won’t be on an innings limit in 2010, and he is set to fight for his starting job coming out of the gate. “It’s something that’s going to be a battle,” Chamberlain said. “The greatest part about it is it’s not only going to make guys fight for that No. 5 spot, but it’s going to make our team better. We’re going to push each other and continue to try to outwork each other. That’s the greatest part about this game; not only do you push one another to do better, but the team is going to be better for it. Whatever happens, happens. I hope they’re ready because I worked my tail off to get where I’m at and I hope they do the same.”

The Yanks’ brass have been committed to Joba as a starter, but the team is prepared to push him in Spring Training too. “We’ll put the best guy that we feel can fill that spot and give us the best chance to win,” Joe Girardi said. Does Sergio Mitre really fit that bill?

The Yanks will head to Tampa with Alfredo Aceves, Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin as possible starters, but Joba’s real competition is Phil Hughes. The Yanks’ other live arm emerged as the team’s primary set-up man last summer and would be all but guaranteed a rotation spot had the team not traded for Javier Vazquez. As it stands, one of those two will emerge as the front-runner for the spot, and as Hughes faces an innings limit, Joba has a leg up. Nothing is guaranteed, though, and Joba knows it. The loser of this fight will probably head to the pen until someone in the rotation gets hurt. For the Yankees, that’s a comforting luxury to have.

Categories : Pitching
Comments (202)

Over the past couple of weeks we’ve started writing about the stats we use. One concept we saw in both current entries, UZR and wOBA, is linear weights. The idea might sound complex, but it is not. The idea is to assign a value to different outcomes and situations, so we can get a truer sense of how baseball players add value. During the 2009 season, FanGraphs introduced pitch type linear weights, which took the actual results of different pitch types, as provided by Baseball Info Solutions, and ran them through linear weight conversions by not only event, but by count. This gives us a decent idea of how a pitcher fared with his arsenal.

Let’s see how each of the Yankees fared. We’ll look at pitchers who spent a decent amount of time on the roster, 40 innings for relievers plus the starters. Then I’ll compare them to the league leaders, both for starters and relievers. These measurements will be on a per 100 pitch basis, as to put it in a rate form rather than counting form. Finally, for the secondary pitches I’ll weed out the short sample size numbers by noting only pitchers who threw the particular pitch at least 10 percent of the time.

Fastball

Starter: CC Sabathia, 0.64
Reliever: Phil Coke, 1.40

Some might be surprised to see Coke atop the list — some might even say it delegitimizes the stat. I believe it, though. It seemed that Coke got into major trouble when he overused his slider. We saw that first hand early in the season when the Twins, namely Morneau and Mauer, lit up Coke’s slider. He came back later in the series to face Morneau, and struck him out using just fastballs. It was certainly his most effective pitch, which probably explains why he had such spotty success. Relievers certainly need that second pitch. Also, for good measure, Phil Hughes’s fastball wasn’t far behind, at 1.22, and it rated higher on a counting basis.

What comes as no surprise is CC Sabathia’s fastball ranking highest among starters. A.J. Burnett is known for his blazing fastball and devastating curve, but in 2009 his fastball didn’t quite measure up. That leaves Joba, Sabathia, and Pettitte, and it’s pretty clear who had the best fastball among that group. Joba, in fact, had a pretty terrible fastball, ranking among the worst for AL starters.

AL leader, starter: Zack Greinke, 1.27
AL leader, reliever: Craig Breslow, 2.65

Credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Slider

Starter: Joba Chamberlain, 1.29
Reliever: Phil Coke, -0.30

It seems Joba has good reason for loving his slider so much, as it appears a damn effective pitch. Overall it was worth 7.5 runs above average, an excellent mark, especially for a guy pitching his first full major league season. He kept shaking off Jorge Posada to get the three fingers, and he kept throwing it with effectiveness. If he can further harness the pitch this year and get his fastball back to 2008 levels, when it was at 0.79 runs above average per 100 pitches, he should have a wildly successful 2010 season.

As for Coke being the top reliever, that’s more a result of so few Yankee relievers using the pitch. David Robertson actually ranked highest, but he threw the pitch just 1.4 percent of the time, so we can discount the performance. Likewise, Burnett led among starters but threw the slider just 0.1 percent of the time. The Yankees bullpen, it appears, is more of a curveball/changeup crew.

AL leader, starter: Zack Greinke, 2.90
AL leader, reliever: Mike Wuertz, 2.75

Credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola

Curve

Starter: A.J. Burnett, 1.47
Reliever: Al Aceves, 1.74

Though we saw it fall flat on a few occasions this season, Burnett clearly has the best curve on the team, and among the best in the league. His is a power curve, coming in something like a slider as it dips down and away from righties.

Aceves boasts a number of pitches in his arsenal, but none appears as effective as his curve. He’s a nice change of pace in the Yankees bullpen. While they have Robertson, Marte, and Hughes with strong fastballs, Aceves brings it down a tick, mixing high 80s heat with a slew of breaking and off-speed pitches that keep hitters guessing.

AL leader, starter: Tommy Hunter, 2.27
Al leader, reliever: Joakim Soria, 4.86

Credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola

Change

Starter: CC Sabathia, 3.59
Reliever: Al Aceves, 3.10

Mike already wrote about CC’s changeup and how it devastates righties. So devastating, in fact, that it ranked best in league. Go CC. On the relief front, Aceves proves his versatility by not only ranking highest for curve, but also for changeup. He throws them with similar frequency, keeping hitters off-balance. Again, I love the change of pace he brings to the bullpen.

AL leader, starter: Sabathia
AL leader, reliever: Aceves

Credit: AP Photo/Kevork Djansezian

Cutter

Starter: Andy Pettitte, 2.50
Reliever: Mariano Rivera, 2.03

Neither of these comes as a surprise. Surprisingly, Hughes’s cutter ranked not far behind Mo’s on a rate basis, at 1.98, but clearly didn’t even approach it on a counting basis. Both of Hughes’s fastballs ranked well, with his curveball lagging behind. He probably needs to start throwing it more in 2010, though it appears he favors the four-seamer and cutter much more when pitching out of the bullpen.

Pettitte mixed his pitches well in 2009, going with healthy doses of four-seamers, cutters, curves, and changes. His cutter ranked the best, and his curve provided value as well. Those two pitches, I believe, help compensate for his four-seamer, which sits at 89 mph. Because he can go to the cutter and curve so frequently, he can keep hitters guessing, meaning they can’t jump as quickly on his four-seamer. His cutter, as you can see, ranked just below best in the league among AL starters.

AL leaders, starter: Scott Feldman and Jon Danks, 2.56
Al leader, reliever: Rivera (conveniently ignoring Lance Cormier’s slightly higher per-100-pitches mark, because Mo’s counting stat was far, far higher, and I’m biased and Mo is Mo)

Pettitte photo credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip
Mo photo credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Categories : Pitching
Comments (46)
Jan
08

Phil v. Joba (2010)

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (43)

As Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes have risen through the Yankee system, they have been dazzled and disappointed at times. Such are the ways of young pitching prospects, and the two will head into Spring Training battling for the same spot in the starting rotation. The loser will, in all likelihood, start the season in the bullpen if not the Triple A rotation, and due to his ability to throw more innings in 2010, Joba will be the incumbent while Phil has an uphill battle if he wants to start in the Bronx this April.

For the Yankees, having two live and highly-regarded arms is hardly a problem; 29 other teams would die to have this problem. For fans watching these two mature into Major League pitchers, it’s always entertaining to see how the two stack up against each other, and today at The Yankee U, Moshe Mandel did just that. He asked a bunch of prospect writers — including our very own Mike Axisa — which of the two was the bigger prospect. Joba seems to have won by a hair, and the jury is still out as to which of the two will be the better Major Leaguer.

Categories : Asides, Musings
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For a team whose priorities this off-season are pitching, pitching, pitching, the Yankees haven’t made many moves in that department. Re-signing Andy Pettitte has been their only pitching transaction, and while that’s an important one it doesn’t bolster the staff for the 2010 season. With the offense seemingly set, they will likely focus on pitching for the rest of the winter. But we could even see them stand pat in that department, if they don’t land one of two free agents.

Of the remaining free agent starters, only two make any sense for the Yankees. They’re also the two we’ve talked about since the off-season began: Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer. Anyone else would just provide depth, like Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin, and Al Aceves. That’s not a bad thing — the Yankees should look into acquiring as much pitching depth as they can afford. But Sheets and Duchscherer are the only two the Yankees should sign for the rotation.

Ben discussed the rotation situation last night, debunking an ESPN Radio report that claimed only one of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain would be in the 2010 rotation. Brian Cashman cleared up the situation on Michael Kay’s radio show yesterday, and Steve from The Yankee Universe has the transcript, in which Cashman clarifies the misinterpretation of his words. ESPN, as it turns out, cherry picked a quote which, when put into the context of the question, doesn’t mean anything close to what they made it out to be.

Said Cashman on Kay’s show about the possibility of Hughes or Chamberlain starting the season in the bullpen:

If we went in with a starter that we actually like better, yeah. I have no problem with that. I mean we went into the playoffs with Hughes, Aceves and Chamberlain all in the bullpen. Why? Because we had guys we were giving the ball in the rotation , although it was a truncated rotation, we were giving the ball to guys we felt were more capable at that moment in time. So there’s no change in philosophy, as of right now, those guys are all starters. And if nothing changes, those guys are all starters. The question was ‘Well what if you get a starter?’ well, that means we have four, that means the remaining population competes for the final spot.

Who on the free agent market, other than Sheets or Duchscherer, could the Yankees possibly like better than the guys they already have? Chris from iYankees pointed to a GAKIII report mentioning Jarrod Washburn. Really? How can the Yankees possibly like Washburn more than the guys they have in house? Sure, he had a great first half, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who had the best outfield defense in the league behind him. His home run rate also dropped considerably, due mostly to a very low home run to fly ball ratio. Chances are he reverts to his career norms in 2010, which would not play well at all in Yankee Stadium.

Who else could they like more? Erik Bedard? He’s an injury case like Sheets and Duchscherer, and could provide as much upside, but his media aversion wouldn’t work well in New York. He remains perhaps the best possibility outside the aforementioned pair. Jon Garland? Same as Washburn, only he’s a righty, younger, and healthier. Doug Davis? Noah Lowry? Jason Marquis? Brett Myers? Joel Pineiro? I don’t see how any of them present the Yankees with better options. They’d just be fodder for depth, to be stashed away in the minors or in the bullpen. They’re not viable candidates to seriously compete for a rotation spot to start the season.

As it stands, the Yankees are fine with pitching. They’ll need to catch a few breaks, but they could go into the season with just a few tweaks and still have one of the league’s best teams. If they add a starter, it will probably one to demonstrably improve the rotation. For now, that appears to be Sheets and Duchscherer. Other options might work nice as depth, but as the British would say, they’d be redundancies.

Categories : Pitching
Comments (96)
Dec
18

Joba, Phil and the 2010 bullpen

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (85)

Everybody’s talking about pitching these days. Jorge Posada went on the FAN this week and voiced his belief that the Yanks could use another starter. Meanwhile, at yesterday’s Curtis Granderson press conference, the Yanks’ beat writers quickly turned the focus to pitching.

What came out of it were a few sensational stories. ESPN 1050 AM spent Thursday alleging that Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi both said that one of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would be in the starting rotation while the other would set up for Mariano Rivera. It sent Yankee fans into the usual bullpen-inspired Eighth Inning frenzy. Who will get exiled to pen and who will stay in the rotation?

After a few RAB readers e-mailed us, I consulted and reviewed the Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman media sessions. Neither of the two said anything close to what ESPN Radio spent the afternoon reporting, and while the team may not be committed to having both Joba and Phil starting all year, that is simply a function of innings limits than anything else. Listening between the lines made me believe that the Yanks are definitely eying Ben Sheets as a possible starter, but the team will give Phil and Joba every chance to excel as starters.

So what did the Yankee brain trust say? Well, Joe Girardi was at the mic first, and after the cursory Curtis Granderson statements, the focus turned to pitching. Does he want to see the team bring in another starter? “I don’t think you can ever have too much starting pitching. I really don’t,” he said. “Especially with the age of some of our starters, you don’t necessarily want to feel like you have to push them too far, and that was one of the things we were able to do.”

The next question was a loaded one. Could Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain both handle a 32-start workload next year? “I think Joba is more prepared than Phil because Phil didn’t throw 150 innings last year,” Girardi said. “It will be much more difficult to throw him in 32 starts.”

This statement from Girardi was one that made people think Phil would be ticketed to the pen. Of course, that doesn’t make sense if the Yanks want him to reach 150 innings. He certainly won’t get there pitching in relief.

In fact, the next question specifically asked if Hughes would move to pen, and Girardi denied it. This is where I think the Yanks’ interest in Ben Sheets started to show. “I’m not saying that,” Girardi said of a bullpen role for Phil. “That’s something that we’ll have to discuss and see how that fourth starting pitcher is, if he’s someone who can give you 32 starts.”

Ben Sheets, by the way, hasn’t made 32 starts since 2004. In his last season pitching in the Majors — 2008 — he took the hill 31 times. He would be the perfect complement for Phil Hughes and an innings limit.

In the end, the Yanks were mum with their plans. They had to be simply because they don’t have that pitcher — whether its Sheets or Justin Duchscherer or someone else — locked up. All we know is that Joba Chamberlain, as Brian Cashman said, has no innings limit while Phil Hughes does. One of them could wind up in the pen but only if the Yanks enjoy a surplus of pitching. Despite what the radio may tell us, it’s far to early to pigeonhole one of the live young arms for the Eighth Inning. Let’s wait until at least the end of March for that.

Categories : Pitching
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Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees have decided that they will in fact bid on Roy Halladay. Toronto, he says, wants some combination of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Jesus Montero, and Austin Jackson. Meanwhile, Buster Olney says the Yanks are going to trim payroll; he’s just not sure by how much. Frankly, none of this is anything we didn’t already know, but now it’s semi-official.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
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We learned a lot about Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain in 2009. They both went through ups and downs during the season, so we got to see them at their best and at their worst. That can tell you a lot about a player, but you’ll never get the whole story from just one season, especially for pitchers as young as those two. The main takeaway is that both can succeed at the major league level. Whether that is in the rotation or in the bullpen remains a question, and will be until they prove where they’re best situated.

I’ve always taken the stance that a starting rotation should consist of the team’s five best pitchers — that is, pitchers capable of starting baseball games. If Joba and Hughes are among the Yankees’ five best options, they should be in the rotation. Given their potential, there’s a good chance that they’re in that top five. If not, a spot will eventually open. The best strategy, then, is to assume that they’re starters and then assess in Spring Training. According to Peter Gammons, this is exactly what they’ll do.

“They can always go from starting to the bullpen, but it’s tough going the other way,” says Brian Cashman.

This statement is not groundbreaking. The Yankees prefer to have pitchers prepare as starters and then convert them when necessary. They did it in 2007 with Scott Protor, and did it again last year with Phil Coke. There is no surprise, then, that they will have Chamberlain and Hughes prepare as starters. Why pigeonhole them now, when they could ultimately be one of the team’s top five starters?

Still, the Yankees will assess all of their options in the rotation. In fact, it’s probably the most important item on the off-season docket.

“I think the first thing you have to address is our rotation,” Girardi said. “Right now if you looked at our starters you’d say that we have two starters for sure and then you have a mix of some other guys, so I think that’s probably the first thing that we have to address. But I think that’s probably first on everyone’s list, pitching.”

Pitching always comes first, and the Yankees learned that lesson in recent years. It’s why they got the top two guys on the last free agent market, and why they’re trying to develop high-ceiling arms in the minors. Just because it’s first on everyone’s list, however, doesn’t mean that the team will necessarily sign John Lackey or trade for Roy Halladay. It just means that they understand the importance of pitching, and will consider any move that makes the rotation stronger in 2010 and beyond.

(Which, of course, could include signing Lackey or trading for Halladay.)

Do the Yankees have a contingency plan for the bullpen should both Hughes and Joba break camp in the rotation? I guess that depends on your definition of contingency plan. Buster Olney thinks that the Yanks will pursue “two relievers, in all likelihood.” Why they’d do this, I don’t know. Again, we’ve learned the lessons of free agent relievers over the past few years, and with a number of in-house options, bringing in a middle reliever, or even a closer who will pose as a setup man, seems to be a luxury item rather than a necessity. That’s what Cashman says.

“We have guys knocking on the door from the minor leagues, and it’s always easy to take a starter and make him into a reliever – I think we’re good at that,” Cashman joked. “Is it an area of obvious need? No. You’ve got to look more at the rotation and left field.”

The Yankees have a lot of pitchers, and many of them could factor into the rotation and bullpen plans for 2010. That affords them the luxury of choosing only the players they see fit. If they like the cut of John Lackey’s jib, they can bring him aboard. If they don’t like something about him, they can let it go and wait until next off-season. The team is in a good position now, even though some of the rotation spots are nominally unsettled.

Categories : Pitching
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As Roy Halladay continues to hover above this off-season as Johan Santana did two years ago, the Blue Jays’ demands for him are coming into view. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Alex Anthopoulous, the new Toronto GM, will have to make a splash if he ships out Halladay. He’ll need a good, young, sure bet to take Halladay’s place and set Toronto on the path to AL East competitiveness.

With that in mind, it is clear that any trade talks with the Yanks would involve the names Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes being bandied about. After all, these are two kids who can get out AL East hitters while pitching in pressure-packed stadiums in New York and Boston. What GM wouldn’t try to demand one of the two from Brian Cashman?

Yesterday, in his regular Sunday round-up in the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo confirmed that the Jays would readily give up Halladay for Phil or Joba. He wrote:

The Yankees could easily get into the Roy Halladay hunt if they’re willing to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, which they apparently are. The one player they’d love to hold on to is Austin Jackson, their future center fielder who could keep their outfield costs low.

This is a tantalizing tidbit from Cafardo for so many reasons, and as we like to talk about rumors, talk about it we shall. First, Cafardo casually mentions that the Yankees are “apparently” willing to part with Hughes or Joba. This unsourced development is a drastic turnaround from recent years when the Yankees have not wanted to let any of their young pitchers out of their grasp, and I’m not so sure I believe it here.

As with Santana, Roy Halladay comes with one year guaranteed and the option to negotiate for more. He will be 33 on Opening Day, a good four years older than Santana was on Opening Day 2008 when he made his Mets debut, and while Halladay may be more durable and better equipped to deal with the rigors of age than Santana, the Yanks would be acquiring one year of an old pitcher for a few years of Joba or Phil. If it didn’t make sense a few years ago before we had a better sense of what Joba or Phil could do, it doesn’t make too much sense now.

Next, Cafardo’s belief that Austin Jackson is “the one player” the Yanks would love to hold on to seemingly flies in the face of conventional wisdom. While Cafardo mentions Jesus Montero in another paragraph about the Yanks’ catching prospects, I find it hard to believe that Montero would be made available over Austin Jackson. Montero has a better bat and plays one of the key up-the-middle positions. Jackson profiles as a future center fielder, but Montero ranks higher up on my the Yanks’ prospects list. I’d be far more open to moving A-Jax than I would Montero (or Hughes and Joba, for that matter).

Cafardo’s piece allows us to confirm the high price for Halladay, but anyone following the Blue Jays would know it already. I don’t believe the Yanks intend to trade Phil or Joba for Halladay, and I don’t think the team should.

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Amidst the news from the GM Meetings can word from Brian Cashman, via Chad Jennings, that both Joba Chamberlain’s and Phil Hughes‘ innings cap in 2010 will “not be significant.” After years of discussion about innings limits, the Yanks are ready to let their youngster loose, and it makes sense. Joba threw over 160 innings this year, and a 30-inning bump would put him at 190 innings. That’s a threshold reached by just 21 other AL pitchers in 2009.

The decision to let Hughes’ innings limit slide is of another nature. As Mike just noted, Hughes as a major part of the 2009 bullpen but threw only 106 innings because of it. At The Yankee Universe, Moshe Mandel speculates that a lack of an innings cap for Hughes is motivated by the 146 innings he threw in 2006. The Yanks may be willing to allow Hughes throw approximately 175 innings in 2010 because of that past.

Categories : Asides, Pitching
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