Nov
06

Link Dump: Jeter, Joba, MLB vs. NFL

By

Just a few links to tide you over this Saturday afternoon.

Tim Marchman lays out the facts about Derek Jeter. As usual, Marchman hits on the most important points. The takeaway:

You can futz with the math a bit, but even after you apply a standard aging curve, even after you weight 2010 more heavily than 2009 and 2009 more heavily than 2008 and do all other good things backed by actual research rather than one’s vague sense that the man’s bat has slowed and that time has crept upon his face, he projects as a very good player for next year and even beyond, one whose declining offense is offset by his ability to play a lot, to run the bases well, to field a difficult position tolerably and so on.

Nailed it.

Beyond the Boxscore takes a look at Joba Chamberlain using PitchFX. It’s a neat look at how things have changed, but I’m not sure how much the article itself helps — the author fails to take into account Joba’s shoulder injury from 2008. That seems particularly important when evaluating his progression as a pitcher.

William of The Captain’s Blog makes a cameo at The Yankee U to discuss MLB and NFL ratings. He does an excellent job of putting the issue in perspective.

Categories : Links

25 Comments»

  1. Hughesus Christo says:

    Yankees fans are grotesquely spoiled. I almost want to issue personal apologies to Jeter and Posada for their (our) absurdities.

  2. jim p says:

    However it worked out as averages for the year, it seems to me that Joba’s fastball was a little slower in the beginning of 2010, and faster toward the end. Throughout, he was inconsistent in placing it, having jags where he could and jags where he couldn’t.

    I think until he can be consistent with command, he’ll stay a reliever. There is probably few if any successful starters who do not play off a fastball under their command. Whatever the speed of the fastball is. (Think Mussina in his last year.) Look at Hughes the reliever, who got fastball command down quite well in ’09. That’s why he was made a starter. He had something he could reliably play off of.

    If Joba looks to get that together this year, see starter in his future. If not, I suspect trade bait. As of today, I think they’d trade him in a package for a solid starter.

  3. Ed says:

    That was well put on Jeter.

    I think one thing people get wrong often is how to account for Jeter aging. Yes, next year is Jeter’s age 37 season, and 37 year old shortstops are rare, and usually suck.

    However, age Jeter’s age 36 season was still above average for a shortstop in his prime years. Very few shortstops ever put up a season that compares to Jeter’s age 35 season.

    It’s possible that Jeter will fall off a cliff and never put up a good year again. It’s much more likely though that he’ll follow a traditional gradual decline and have a few more above average seasons in him.

    • dalelama says:

      Jeter already fell off the cliff this year. Marchman’s comments are really pretty stupid, inferring that Jeter’s will be “one whose declining offense is offset by his ability to play a lot, to run the bases well, to field a difficult position tolerably and so on.” Does anybody believe Jeter will play more, run the bases better, or play defense better as his offense declines? If his offense declines and the other factors don’t decline or just stay the same his overall value will surely diminish.

      • Chris says:

        He fell off a cliff from a HOF/MVP level of production to merely a slightly above average SS. That’s still valuable, and to suggest that he sucked in 2010 is very short sighted.

        • Hughesus Christo says:

          Even calling it “slightly above average” is inaccurate.

          • whozat says:

            He was well above average offensively for an AL SS in 2010, but the baseline of that category fell off a cliff too. If we assume some regression to the mean (of the last 5 years, say) in AL shortstops, then I don’t see how one can say that it’s clear that he projects to have a few more years of very-good-ness. If he replicates 2010 next year, I think there’s a good change that’s slightly above average for an AL SS.

        • dalelama says:

          I never said he sucked I just wouldn’t pay the guy a penny over $15M per for 3 years if the Yankees are serious about their budget and want to be a better team in the short run.

  4. Matt DiBari says:

    The other thing with Jeter is he really doesn’t strike me as a guy who will hang on if he starts hitting well below his norms every year. I think if he goes out there and hits .240 in 2011 and 2012, I think he retires regardless of how long his contract is

    • Chris says:

      I agree. One year can be seen as a down year, but if it becomes a pattern for 2 or 3 years, I don’t think he’ll hang on just because he can.

      I’m also not convinced that he’s going to push for a huge contract this year – or more precisely, he’ll push for as much as he can get, but won’t DEMAND something insane.

  5. Hogan says:

    Jobas velocity after he came back from his shoulder injury in that September was top notch and consistent with his best velocitiy from that year. Look it up. It wasn’t until spring training the next year that it fell off dramatically. What happened? That’s the real mystery….. Steroids, new injury, eiland fucking up his mechanics? Somebody tell me…

    • Chris says:

      His velocity in Sept ’08 (as a reliever) was about the same as it was as a starter earlier in the season. It dropped a couple MPH when he was a starter in ’09, and then came back up a couple MPH (slightly higher than as a reliever in ’08 but quite a bit lower than as a reliever in ’07).

      Pitchers generally throw harder as short relievers, and that’s why it looks like he lost velocity between ’08 and ’09, but the lost velocity actually happened with the injury.

  6. Yankeefan91 Arod Fan says:

    heres a link u forgot to post :p

    http://www.lifeandstylemag.com.....a-rod.html

  7. mustang says:

    It’s a lesson that I learned with Patrick Ewing and one that Yankees fans may have to learn with Jeter, Posada and Mo.

    “Don’t Know What You Got (Till It’s Gone)”

  8. Zack says:

    People can lay out the facts about Jeter, but if they give him 25m/year then I don’t want to hear “budget” out of Cashman’s mouth if they miss on a certain FA this year, or next, or for as long as Jeter is getting paid that sum.

  9. KDB says:

    The article on Jeter was just more blah, blah, blah. The second best paid SS in baseball plays for the Mets, and makes $11 million. The Philadelphia SS makes $8 million. If you want to pay Jeter what he’s worth, he gets about $9 million per…on the other hand, if you want to reward him for past service (he was already very well paid for it) about $20 million for a year or two. The Yankees cannot afford too much sentimentality for over the hill players, and compete year, after year, in a very tough division. Derek, and Jorge are both at the very top of that hill, and looking in the wrong direction.

  10. Will Jeter play better if he’s married?

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