Open Thread: The Brackmonster turns 25

Mailbag: George Sherrill
Berkman lands in St. Louis
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

A very special RAB Happy Birthday goes out to 2007 first round pick Andrew Brackman. The big guy turns the ripe old age of 25 today, which is kinda old in prospect years but still young in every other aspect of life. With any luck we’ll see him with the big league team at some point next season. Here’s a fun Fact: Brackman issued 37 fewer walks in 2010 than he did in 2009 despite facing 105 more batters. That’s good. Oh, and a belated happy birthday goes out to Gary Sanchez, who turned 18 on Thursday. They make them so young these days.

Anyway, here is your open thread for the night. The Devils are the only local team in action, but there’s a ton of college football on as well. You guys know the drill, so have at it.

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Mailbag: George Sherrill
Berkman lands in St. Louis
  • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

    The Devils played earlier today, and lost 5-3, so it is college football or bust.

  • YankeesJunkie

    It is sort of surprising to see Brackman at 25 already, it seems like yesterday that he was going in for TJ surgery.

  • Avi

    After the A Gonzalez trade where are all the guys that tell me the Yanks need to give Hughes and Montero for Justin Upton?

    • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

      Let me be the first. Upton is 6 years younger than Gonzalez, under team control for four additional years, and plays a more premium position.

    • Moshe Mandel

      They gave up their 1, 3, and 6 prospects for an older player who is going to need to be paid a huge deal now. Upton is much younger and is signed to a very friendly contract. He has a lot more trade value.

      • MikeD

        He has also yet to prove he’s a major impact player, such as Gonzalez. The Sox are giving up prospects, none of which are in the Montero-prospect class, or the MLB professional level as Hughes, to get one of the best bats in the game.

        • Moshe Mandel

          He does have more trade value, and I think would have cost one of those two. I dont think he would cost both.

      • Avi

        Upton has more trade value than Adrian Gonzalez??
        I strongly disagree.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Better player =/= more trade value.

          • MikeD

            He has to prove he’s a better player. Gonzalez had a 5.3 fWAR last season to Upton’s 3.1. Gonzalez has had a single season fWAR as high as 6.5, while Upton’s entire career, he has a total of 7.7. Not trying to knock Upton, but he us a promise of greatness. Gonzalez already is great. Upton is younger and has a more cost-effective contract, but no one knows if he will achieve greatness.

        • I Voted 4 Kodos

          Upton is much younger, signed to a reasonable contract, and has shown a good deal of potential in his career. A player like that costs a lot more in a trade than an established star who requires a massive contract extension.

        • Moshe Mandel

          Yes, he absolutely does. He isn’t as established, but has superstar potential that has already manifested itself, and is signed to a good deal, and is extremely young. Upton has one of the highest trade values in the sport.

      • Avi

        “Upton is much younger and is signed to a very friendly contract.”

        You realize that if Upton stays at last year’s level of production it a very unfriendly contract.

        • Moshe Mandel

          False. he was injured, missed time, and still was worth 12.6 million according to Fangraphs. His deal from here on is worth about 10M per year. Even at the same production he out-earns the deal. If he goes forward as most expect, he will greatly exceed the value of the deal. For the deal to become very unfriendly, he’d need to crater.

          • Avi

            Replying to Moshe’s Comment:
            I don’t know what Fangraphs is basing their $12.6M number on but there’s no way he was worth that much in 2010. Show me a guy with that kinda numbers that a team traded for, without getting at least part of his contract subsidized. NO ONE would take on that contract.

            • Moshe Mandel

              You can say that there is no way, but BB-Ref actually has him as even more valuable. He’s a very good defensive player who had a good but not great offensive season. he certainly was not worth less than 10 million.

              • Avi

                So you’re saying that if Upton was 29 years old (no further projection) and was a free agent he would get a 5 year deal worth about $60M?
                There’s absolutely NO WAY.

                • Louis

                  Yea but he’s not 29 years old and their is further projection- that’s part of what makes him so valuable. If he has a breakout next year and starts hitting better than gonzo then I’m sure when he’s 29 he’ll get a deal for much more than 12 mill per for 5 years.

        • ZZ

          He had a .799 OPS last year with great defense.

          Even if he doesn’t get any better that is worth a little less than $10 million a year.

    • ZZ

      Considering the Yankees hired Towers to be one of their baseball people, I hope he isn’t as dumb as Hoyer.

  • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

    Big moves of the day:

    Jeter signs with us.
    A-Gon goes to Boston in a heist.
    Berkman returns to the NL Central as an outfielder in St. Louis.

    And they say the weekends are bad for news.

    • candyforstalin

      that last one will be good fun.

  • steve (different one)

    Based on what we saw last year, is there any possible way that Lance Berkman can play the OF everyday? I say no way. Seems crazy to me.

    • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

      Based on what we saw last year,

      What did we see? Two bad defensive games at first that everyone completely freaked out about? I’m not optimistic he’ll be a good OF, but I sure as hell am not based my opinion on his stint with the Yankees.

      • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

        *basing

      • steve (different one)

        Wasn’t referring to his play at 1B, more his baserunning, his speed, size, etc. I’ll be shocked if he holds up all year in LF. He got $8M, they could prob sign Cust for a third of that and get the same production. Just seemed like a really strange marriage to me.

        • All Star Carl

          He ran the bases well.

          • steve (different one)

            Yeah, I didn’t mean he made baserunning mistakes, but he ran like a big dude with old knees. He’s going to be a bad LFer. There were many teams with openings at 1B, just seems wierd that he’d sign with an NL team that will never need anyone to play 1B.

  • YankeesJunkie

    Nebraska v Oklahoma for the last time in a long time. Should be a great game, sad to see one of the best rivalries go though.

  • Kevin G.

    Happy Birthday to Brackman and Jay-Z! (and me ;))

    • candyforstalin

      congratulations.

    • Kit

      Happy Birthday!

    • YankeesJunkie

      congrats, have your best birthday!!!

      • Kevin G.

        Actually, it’s probably my worst birthday

        • YankeesJunkie

          Sorry :(

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      Happy birthday!!

  • candyforstalin

    adrian gonzalez o/u 140m.

    • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

      Under. 5 years for 110-120M.

      • MikeD

        Seems like a good range, although it might go a tick higher, perhaps up to $125 million. I can’t see him signing for less than Howard. Boston knows this, and if he digs his heels in, they’ll cave. Then again, they have cost themselves in the past by taking a hard line for the sake of a few million. Look no further back than Teixeira. As far as I can tell, they’ve traded away about six prospects over the past few years, instead of locking down Teix when they had the chance, with the cost of more prospects and now more money.

    • YankeesJunkie

      Under. Six year extension probably between 120-130 million dollars.

  • ZZ

    What a miserable day to be a Padres fan.

    Your team just traded one of the best players in baseball who is one of the most popular players in franchise history and the most positive thing you can find out there is that the deal was “fair.”

    A great player and probably the most popular player in team history outside of Tony Gywnn for just fair and that is if you read articles from people who are the most optimistic on the trade. That is not supposed to happen with a player the caliber and popularity of Gonzalez.

    It should have been painful for the Red Sox to get Gonzalez.

    • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

      I completely agree. Hoyer knows that system better than anybody outside of Boston’s brain trust. He should have taken Kalish and Lowrie to go along with Rizzo/Kelly/Fuentes.

      • YankeesJunkie

        The Pads system definitely got deeper, but they should have gotten some MLB talent. I will be interested to see who the fourth player is.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      What a miserable day to be a Padres fan.

      It must be very sad……. for the like 3 of them that exist

      • ZZ

        lol.

        At least that is 2 more than the Rays fan!

        • Kit

          I was going to type “The Rays have two more fans than the Padres?”

          • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

            I honestly would’ve been very disappointed if I didn’t get a response like that. ;)

            • Kit

              I wouldn’t let the opportunity to insult the Rays pass me by like that. I know better.

              • http://twitter.com/firstheart42 seimiya

                I think the Rays have more fans than the Padres, even only because Evan Longoria is cute.

                • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                  Well, Jon Garland is HOT (but no longer a Padre).

                • Kit

                  This is true.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      Seriously. That package doesn’t fill me with confidence that they can make it up for AGon. Dude is a wrecking machine.

  • pat

    If there’s any “silver lining” to the trade today it’s Adrian’s struggles with LHP. Although he obliterated them last year
    (.337/.424/.513)) AGonz has been merely average against lefties for his career .262/.338/.445. We’ll hopefully be throwing three lefties in the rotation and another two in the bullpen so hopefully he won’t be able to completely demolish us. Wishful thinking I admit.

    Also, what would it take to get Jonny Venters? Phelps and Warren? Dude is a stud.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      He’s dirt cheap for the next 2 years then 3 years of arbitration, not sure what incentive they have to move him unless you blow them away.

      • pat

        Their incentive is that it will make me happy. Yea I guess it wont happen.

  • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

    I want to hate the Adrian Gonzalez trade as much as anyone, but honestly, I don’t have a problem with it. San Diego wasn’t going to do much better. Few teams have the ability to give Gonzalez an extension, have the prospects to part with (rule out the Cubs and Mets here), and have an opening at 1B (rule out Angels and Yankees.) The only team I can think of is Texas and they are prepared to either empty their wallets for Lee or farm for Greinke.

    Once committed to trading Gonzalez, there is zero chance of the Padres contending next year, so what’s the point of getting ML-ready guys? The two best choices would be Ellsbury and Buchholz, both of whom will be arbitration eligible by 2012, which is a big deal when you consider the Padres now only have five guys under contract who will make more than the minimum next year. Three of the five are Mike Adams, Chris Denorfia, and Tim Stauffer who might combined make $4M at most, and the other two (Ludwick and Bell) are also likely to be traded at some point. The Padres are clearly entering Marlins territory with the payroll so it doesn’t make sense to add major league guys who are about to be paid to a non-contending team. They might as well go for high upside guys, which is exactly what they did.

    • ZZ

      The problem is that you are assuming only teams that could lock Gonzalez long term would be interested in trading for him.

      • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

        Well, I am assuming that only teams that could lock him up long term would be willing to give up as much as the Red Sox did.

        • ZZ

          The Rangers gave up more for a Cliff Lee rental.

          Players like Gonzalez, even if it is just for one year, have a lot of trade value. Especially to teams with needs as the trade deadline approaches in the summer.

        • steve (different one)

          It’s 6 wins and 2 draft picks for $5M. I think more teams would have been willing to trade good talent for that. But it does narrow the field to teams expecting to compete in 2011. Like the rays…

          • Sweet Dick Willie

            It’s 6 wins and 2 draft picks for $5M.

            Actually, his salary for 2011 was $5.5M, but it became $6.3M because he reached incentives.

            But it does narrow the field to teams expecting to compete in 2011. AND with a deep farm system.

            Like the rays…

            If the Rays hadn’t said a gazillion times that they are reducing payroll by about $20M, they would have been a very good fit.

            • steve (different one)

              sure, but replacing Pena with AGon does reduce payroll by about $4M. That’s 20% of their goal and it would allow them to cut corners elsewhere since they just picked up 4 additional wins…

              not really arguing, just thinking out loud.

          • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

            I think you guys are underrating what they gave up. Boston is widely regarded as having a top 10 farm system, and they gave up 3 of their top 6 prospects, including one elite prospect. We make Casey Kelly jokes because Peter Gammons writes poetry about him and he strugged at AA, but he’s still an elite prospect.

            • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

              Boston’s farm was maybe top 15 this year. It hasn’t been top 10 in a while. They gave up on Major League-ready players or Daniel Bard. It’s a high-potential haul, but I think the Padres could have done better.

              • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

                I’m just going by Baseball America, and I could be wrong, but wasn’t it top 5 (or even 3) before last year? Sure, they played themselves down a few notches, but considering they had a good draft, I hardly think they would’ve rated outside the top ten. And yes, San Diego, theoretically could/should have done better, but I don’t think we can definitively say that they didn’t try. San Diego doesn’t really have the leverage to walk away from the table and keep him. Everyone knows he was getting traded either now or in July.

            • ZZ

              Kelly has too far away and has too many question marks to be considered an elite prospect to me.

              Montero is the kind of player who is an elite prospect.

              • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

                I consider a top 20 guy to be elite. If you narrow that to top 10, then yeah, I guess he isn’t. He was a 20 year old in AA whose numbers were drastically affected by a .366 BABIP. He got screwed around as far as shortened starts and whatnot, and pretty much every scout who has seen him swears by him. I’m not arguing the fact that in an ideal world, San Diego could’ve done better. But they are looking at a $25-30M payroll next year, so clearly they aren’t operating in an ideal world.

                • JobaWockeeZ

                  Kelly is far from top 20 and justs makes top 20 pitching prospects.

                  They could have done better.

  • M-Three

    Happy Birthday Brackmonster! I think we will definitly see him in the bronx this year but as a reliever. I don’t think his mechanics will hold up long term. Plus I worry about injuries for the Brack because he never pitch more than 75 innings in college. I could see him being the next Kerry Wood, only taller.

    • Shaun

      He threw 151 innings this year.

  • Kit

    Brackman is actually quite cute when he’s wearing a hat. That horrible haircut is pretty unforgivable.

    • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

      did First Time Lawng Time change her name? =O

      • Kit

        Wut?

        • Kit

          I should also add that (no offense to FTLT), but um, I’m a bit insulted by that.

      • pat

        Nope, different gals.

        • Kit

          Not quite sure what made him think we’re the same person.

          • http://twitter.com/firstheart42 seimiya

            The fact that your post actually made sense should probably steer most people in the Non-FTLT direction…..

            • Kit

              I may have giggled.

            • Jimmy McNulty

              I kinda liked FTLT, it’s good to see people that just like baseball rather than all these hyper pretentious stat heads. She didn’t come off like an obvious troll like most of the dipshits around these parts.

              • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                I don’t think she was a troll at all, just very young.

                • Jimmy McNulty

                  She seemed nice enough, ignorance is easier to tolerate when it’s not aggressive and there’s genuine will to change.

          • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

            You said a boy was cute or something.

            • Kit

              So then we’re all FTLT.

            • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

              And awww, he is cute in that picture. Looks like Trevor Cahill a little, just cuter.

              • Kit

                Yeah. Now that you mention it, he kind of does look like a cuter Cahill. That smile is precious.

            • http://twitter.com/firstheart42 seimiya

              So, if you think a boy is cute, you are FTLT, unless with the exception of Andy, in which case you are obviously Bexy?

              #rablogic

          • pat

            Girls don’t like baseball. There’s probably only three of you worldwide.

            /

            • http://twitter.com/firstheart42 seimiya

              me, kit, bexy, ftlt….

              okay, gotta put leo and squishy jello person in here. that’s at least six.

              • Kit

                Kristen (sorry if I’m misspelling her name) as well.

                • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                  Riddering, but she never comments any more. /cryz

                  • pat

                    Not to mention one of the original RAB femme fatales UWS.

                  • Betty Lizard

                    And me.

  • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

    So I was reading some… other sites today and I just wanna say that even with the trolls and the occasional craziness, damn I am so glad RAB exists.

    • http://twitter.com/firstheart42 seimiya

      Yeah, RAB is pretty freaking amazing.

    • Xstar7

      I feel the same way

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      You were reading NYY Fans again, weren’t you?

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

        ………….. maybe

        (There were other places too. D: )

  • ZZ

    Unless you can find a group of Red Sox fans disgruntled with what they gave up to get Gonzalez, Hoyer didn’t do his job.

    I haven’t see any, but maybe they are out there.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      I saw some people griping about how many prospects they’ve had to give up since they didn’t get Teixeira, but no one has a problem with this deal. As I expect they wouldn’t. (And I also saw some Yankee fan complaining about how having Teixeira over Gonzalez was TEH WORSTEST THING EVAR, so maybe I was in crazy town. And to clarify: I do think Gonzalez is better than Teixeira. But it’s not overwhelming.)

      • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

        I think they’re the exact same guy.

        .286/.377/.536 (Tex)
        .284/.368/.507 (A-Gon)

        • http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

          Adrian played virtually his whole career in Petco though, and and hits .303/.376/.568 on the road. He’s also two years younger.

          I’d say Adrian > Tex, but the Sox will have to pay for Adrian twice (prospects + boatloads of cash) whereas we just had to pay cash for Tex.

      • candyforstalin

        newest toy syndrome.

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

          It’s a “grass is greener” thing, honestly. Add to that fact that AdGon is coming off an excellent year and Tex had a down year, and it’s not gonna help.

      • Xstar7

        Why is Gonzalez better than Teixeira?

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

          Younger, has played in a bigger park, equally good defensively. The only real flaw in his game is that he’s struggled against lefties a little bit.

          • Xstar7

            Oh yeah, I forgot A-Gon has to play in Petco Park.

            • deadrody

              Hey, lets not forget the competition, ok ? Gonzalez has not been playing in the AL East for the last 2 years.

          • JobaWockeeZ

            This. Though the real Teix is better, meaning if we take away his damn April and May suckages but since that will never happen Adiran is the better player.

            • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

              Tex, May, career: .293/.376/.536/.913
              Tex, May, 2009: .330/.390/.748/1.138

              Tex doesn’t suck in May.

      • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

        Gonzalez has more power, but it’s not a significant difference. Teixeira is the better all-around first baseman, much better defense, and he is a switch-hitter.

        • ZZ

          Gonzalez is a great defensive 1B. Teix is not much better on that side of the ball than him.

          It is also hard to compare their power, because Gonzalez has played his career in a park which is death to lefties.

      • Jimmy McNulty

        I’m kinda mad that they got the better player, but lets stop pretending like the Yankees could have chosen either one like a Vlad/Sheffield situation.

      • steve (different one)

        that is crazy. completely ignores the whole WORLD SERIES in 2009 thing that Teixeira was a huge part of. It’s crazy how some Yankee fans can’t appreciate a title unless its every year. 2009 was awesome.

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

          The people who are probably OMG DEVASTATED we have Tex and not AdGon right now are probably the same ones who threw a shitfit when Tex didn’t win the MVP last year.*

          *not saying he deserved it, very much the opposite actually

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      I would agree, but just look at Peter Abraham’s Twitter – Casey Kelly is just a projected #2 starter. Tough to be mad about losing prospects when you just pull a Baseball America and change ratings after a trade.

    • steve (different one)

      Eric Van probably, since he would have thought the Padres should have incuded Latos as well for just Kelly.

  • nathan

    Hoyer caved in.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      I agree, he should have walked away with a guy to open the year in the rotation and a middle infielder in addition to what he got, at least. Most Boston fans seem happy with this deal…I wonder what Keith Law and Jim Callis will say about Casey Kelly next month.

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

        Keith Law is actually one of few people to think the trade is fair, but he loves him some Casey Kelly.

        As I said on the open thread:
        While there’s alot to like about the makeup of right-hander Casey Kelly, Law points out that he is also a great defensive pitcher. His fielding is so strong in fact that Law writes that “it’s like having an extra infielder on the diamond.”

        • Jimmy McNulty

          Earlier Keith Law said that Kelly for Gonzalez straight up was too much. So how does it go from being “too much” to “fair.”

          • nathan

            Wait for two more days, this trade will be a bug win for Red Sox. Thats how ESPN rolls.

            • nathan

              *big

            • steve (different one)

              well, it IS a big win for the Red Sox.

        • ZZ

          Is Law serious using Kelly’s defense as one of the justifications for his prospect status?

          How many more balls does he think a great fielding pitcher is going to get to compared to an average one or even a crappy fielding pitcher?

          • Jimmy McNulty

            I’d imagine it helps him out quite a bit, he was a good defensive shortstop.

            • deadrody

              HIGHLY doubtful. Chris Carpenter led MLB with 35 putouts from the mound and Tim Hudson led in assists with 57. And guess what ? Tim Hudson also led all starters with 64.1% groundballs. It is exceptionally unlikely that the difference between the best and worst fielding pitcher in baseball is even 10 hits vs. outs. Leaving the impact of a pitcher’s fielding ability in the statistical likelihood of victor in the range of a rounding error.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

            That was one line in like, a thousand word blog post. It just happened to be the one that was posted on MLBTR, and everyone’s running with it.

            • ZZ

              I don’t have insider so I haven’t seen what Law wrote.

              But that’s strange that is the piece MLBTR quoted, no?

            • Peter

              I think the blogosphere defends KLaw a little too much sometimes.

              • Jimmy McNulty

                You don’t want that asshole mad at you.

        • nathan

          I still dont know what to think abt KLaw. He is condescending if you come close to disagreeing with any of his thoughts. he has a legion of chat fans who deify him. He often resorts Neyer+ if you dare to ask him why something he predicted didnt go as per thought.

          And often I see he posts chat “questions” from Yanks fans only if they are crazy like people requesting thoughts on gardner for Hanley.

          I dont think he is as impartial as many make him out to be. And all these ESPN guys too often are afraid to critique Boston’s moves because of Bill James clout.

          • Esteban

            Keith Law has never been a fan of the Red Sox. Do you want to call him biased because he lived in the Boston area for a few years and therefore probably had more contacts and knowledge of the Red Sox system, go ahead, but also know that he grew up a Yankees fan.

            • nathan

              Eh, i didnt mean that. But I certainly dont think he is as impartial as ppl make him out to be. He grew up a Yanks fan big whoop so did Olney. Just read some archives of his chats you will know what he thinks of Yanks fans, owners and FO right now.

              I think because of Bill James’ connections to red sox these uber evaluators are not fair on Sox’ system.

              • Esteban

                No, Olney grew up a Dodgers fan, but he did cover the Yankees as a bear writer for the NY Times.

                I read all of KLaw’s stuff, he’s always seemed to be a big fan of Cashman. Furthermore per Wikipedia:

                He began writing for Baseball Prospectus in 1997.[1] Unlike many other Baseball Prospectus authors, Law’s primary influence was not Bill James, but Eddie Epstein, the writer of the first STATS, Inc. Minor League Scouting Notebook.[3]

                You don’t really know what you’re talking about. Just because he posts stupid and funny questions from Yankees fans during his chats doesn’t mean he hates the Yankees.

                • Esteban

                  Te second paragraph is not supposed to be part of the blockquote.

                • nathan

                  I once asked Olney this qn ” How can you like baseball so much and not follow a team” He replied to that he was a Yankee fan.

                  And way to misinterpret what i said about James. I said KLaw is Neyer+ and evaluators dont critique Boston coz of BJ.

                  I never claimed he interned for him or worked for him. Maybe you should know what you are responding to.

                  • Esteban

                    Why would KLaw have some special affinity for Bill James so that he would never criticize the Red Sox? That’s what you insinuated and you can’t just say that.
                    And you said Olney grew up a Yankees fan, and that’s wrong.

                    What does Neyer+ even mean?

      • nathan

        Remember when Masterson, Delcarmen and Craig hanson were supposed to be great, yeah!

        In two weeks Kelly will be called someone who couldnt learn the art of pitching, couldnt nurture his talents. He will be called unmanageable and marginal and long shot.

        • Jimmy McNulty

          I remember telling everyone that the Red Sox robbed the Indians, but no one listened. Now, I do feel that Kelly is quite a bit better than any of the players they traded since Hanley Ramirez, but that isn’t saying a whole lot.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      The package they received was something like Banuelos, Heathcott, and a better version of Laird. For one year of Gonzalez, that’s pretty fair, not to mention the PTBNL.

      • nathan

        There definitely could have been a better package than that. Kelly has not been a pitcher always, I dont know if its fair to compare him to ManBan or other top pitching prospects in the league.

        • Esteban

          Why not?

        • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

          I dont know if its fair to compare him to ManBan or other top pitching prospects in the league.

          Everyone else does.

          • JobaWockeeZ

            Yeah they’re alike in many ways except handedness.

            • Jimmy McNulty

              And results.

              • Esteban

                How many seasons has Kelly had as a full-time pitcher?

                • Jimmy McNulty

                  How many seasons has he kept his ERA under five? Manny’s a year and a half younger and his career low K/9 is better than Kelly’s career high K/9. I mean, Kelly’s good and has some room to fill out, but I think Manny’s clearly a better pitcher.

                  • Esteban

                    Why did you ignore my question like it doesn’t matter? You really don’t think that having only one full season as only a pitcher is significant in any way?

                    • JobaWockeeZ

                      He had two. His 2009 IP is exact with 2010.

                    • Jimmy McNulty

                      I think it’s significant, and I think Kelly’s a great prospect…I just don’t think he’s as good as a 19 year old who succeeded with very good K rates at every level he’s pitched at. His change up is a very good pitch and his command is great. He gets a bit of a mulligan on 2010 due to luck and his first full season pitching. However, I feel that were getting away from ourselves when we let projection (outside of a 95+ MPH fastball) overcome a pitcher who has great stuff, command, and has proven it with his performance. I see Banuelos as the clearly better pitcher, which isn’t to say that I think Kelly sucks or isn’t good nor that he might not end up the better pitcher.

                    • Esteban

                      Right but he was still splitting time between SS and P in 2009.

                    • JobaWockeeZ

                      And it didn’t affect his anyways with a 2.00 ERA while splitting time.

      • Jimmy McNulty

        And they get a negotiation window, so that it’s not like he’s a rental. I don’t see why people are pretending as such.

        • Esteban

          The Padres are trading one year of Adrian Gonzalez. That’s what matters for their calculus. What the Red Sox can do with the extension is immaterial from their point of view.

          • Jimmy McNulty

            Not really, they’re giving the Red Sox a chance of signing Adrian Gonzalez before he hits the open market. That’s incredibly valuable and cost saving from Boston’s perspective, especially with Texas starting to throw their weight around and needing a first basemen. Chicago’s (both of them) always a wild card, the Mets can do better than Ike Davis, the Giants just won a WS and Aubrey Huff isn’t very good, and the LA teams may look at him too. Sure they would have lost Adrian anyways, but they were in position to offer Boston something of value, besides the player.

            • Esteban

              Ok, they’re giving the negotiating window, but no matter what they would have only had one more year with him anyway (no way they could have extended him), so they’re trading that one year of control.

              • Jimmy McNulty

                The luxury of not having to compete with other teams for his services has to count for something.

  • OXXBOW

    Let’s see how Gonzalez adjusts to playing in the Al East.

    • nathan

      I think he will fit in very well with them. The problem is now they have a 1B who can play during interleague and WS also.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        They had they before with Youkilis.

        • nathan

          Oh i meant when they had Youk @ 3B and had VMart or even DOrtiz cover 1B. Not when Beltre was around.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      Look at his hit chart. Then look at left field where a lot of his power goes. Look at Fenway. Then sigh.

  • Jimmy McNulty

    I’m kinda mad about the Gonzalez trade. I’ll only be really pissed if they sign like Jayson Werth or something. They dealt a kid who projects as a two starter, a kinda unknown firstbasemen, and a speedster with shitty plate D for Adrian Gonzalez and a negotiating window (which closes tomorrow at two), that seems like a steal. Keith Law said that he wouldn’t trade Casey Kelly straight up for Adrian Gonzalez, but I’m sure everyone in their right mind would. I hope the Yankees get Cliff Lee now, and trade like a Hughes, Romine, Heathcott, and Adams for Greinke.

    • Mike HC

      Hughes is already a legit major league starter with front end potential. Giving him up plus three other very good prospects is far too much for Grienke in my opinion.

      • Jimmy McNulty

        Hughes’ fly ball issues will haunt him at the Stadium. I have no issues trading him and pieces that are likely to be of little use to the Yankees for Zack Greinke. I’m interested to see if others think that’s an appropriate package, though.

      • JobaWockeeZ

        I agree it’s too much but if yoy replace Hughes with someone else save Montero I think tha’s fair.

        I like Romine but his stock took a hit and the Yankees have so much depth at C that it’ll be easier to deal with.

        Heathcott will hurt but he’s not really close to the majors. Plus our outfield is pretty young and won’t be a concern until later down the road.

        We have Cano so Adams is basically trade bait. really good trade bait but bait nonetheless.

        • Jimmy McNulty

          I mean, I want to sign Lee too…so the natural pitcher to take the exit is Hughes. I wouldn’t have a problem with that package and I doubt many other Yankee fans would either.

          • JobaWockeeZ

            I don’t really have a problem with the package but with the way Hughes dominated the first half I gotta keep him and the prospects and use them for another area of need.

            Hughes was filthy the first half and without a limit this year I think he’ll take another big step into reaching his ceiling.

            • Jimmy McNulty

              I do too, but I still don’t think that ceiling is Greinke’s level.

              • Mike HC

                I just don’t think the upgrade is enough to make that move. Why part with a major league player who already was a major contributor in his first full year as a starter. The Rex Sox just gave up minor league players only for one of the top hitters in baseball. At this point, Hughes is a player you would trade and get multiple guys in return. Not a player to throw in a deal with other talented prospects to get another expensive pitcher.

                • Jimmy McNulty

                  As of now Greinke is a significantly better pitcher than Phil Hughes, and it’s likely to be that way for the next couple of years or so. Besides Greinke is young and his curveball is better than any pitch of Hughes’. Anyone here think that it’s not enough? Mike? Ben? Joe? Esteban? TSJC?

                  • Shaun

                    Your trade proposal sucks

                    • Jimmy McNulty

                      ***asshole alert***

    • 23553

      What if we traded Gardner, Romine, Nova and Adams for Greinke, then traded Betances and a throw in for Willingham (if the Nats decide to make him available). If we’re still signing Lee, this stretches the payroll a little, but its not unreasonable. Of course thats assuming Pettitte (sp? i can never get his name right) retires.

  • Monteroisdinero

    When I think about Boston, I think about Montero putting lots of dents in the green monster. They will all be singles. Tex will have to teach him the uppercut.

  • Avi

    Of the three prospects San Diego is getting for Adrian Gonzalez only one (Kelly) is likely to make the top 100.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      Rizzo’s solid too, overrated, but still not a bad piece.

      • Avi

        Rizzo = Brandon Laird
        And Laird plays 3B.

        • Jimmy McNulty

          Except Rizzo is 21 and lost a year of development. Not to mention hit well in a pitcher’s environment.

    • Avi

      And the Red Sox also get a three day negotiating window, How does that work? You mean to tell me that if San Diego says take Gonzalez as is or no deal, the Red Sox walk away?

      • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

        You mean to tell me that if San Diego says take Gonzalez as is or no deal, the Red Sox walk away?

        Yes.

        • Jimmy McNulty

          They can, they can also take the trade if they feel enough progress has been made.

        • Avi

          I highly doubt it. They’d be nuts not to do that deal. The only thing of value they gave is Casey Kelly, and he’s not even an A+, blue chip prospect. Rizzo likely wouldn’t crack the Yankees top ten and Fuentes definitely doesn’t.

          • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

            Rizzo likely wouldn’t crack the Yankees top ten and Fuentes definitely doesn’t.

            Rizzo is better than Laird and Fuentes=Heathcott, so sorry, but you’re wrong.

            • Avi

              Pena: What makes you think Fuentes is as good as Heathcott?

            • Jimmy McNulty

              Fuentes is no where near as patient as Heathcott. They’re similar, but I’d take Heathcott.

              • http://bloodfarm.tumblr.com matt damon wayans

                Heathcott and Fuentes have comparable speed. Heathcott has a better arm, more patience and more power potential. Both are young, bat lefty and long term projects. However, if given the choice, I think most would go with the player with the potential to hit for some power.

                • Jimmy McNulty

                  And the one that takes walks.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

            You’re being a bit of a homer. Rizzo would have been the Yanks third or fourth best prospect.

            • Avi

              There’s no way he gets ranked ahead on the killer B’s Mike. Romine is as good or better than Rizzo as a prospect.

              • Esteban

                What are you basing that on?

                • Avi

                  I’m basing it on everything I’ve read from BA on these players. All the articles, rankings and chats they have all indicate that the killer B’s are all top 100 guys and Rizzo isn’t

            • Jimmy McNulty

              I disagree. I like Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos, Betances, Brackman, and Romine better than Rizzo. That’s probably because I like ceiling types better, and feel that Brackman and Betances’ stuff is rarer and more valuable than Rizzo’s bat. Romine struggled sure, but I feel that he’ll be about as valuable in terms of WAR as Rizzo in the bigs, but since he’s a catcher I’d probably choose him instead of Rizzo.

            • ZZ

              Rizzo plays 1B and has been basically an .822 OPS in the minors. He is going to need to start hitting a lot more for that position to be that highly regarded.

  • candyforstalin

    defered money on rivera/jeter’s contract = ‘yeah. we screwed up on rodriguez/burnett’s contract.’

    • Jimmy McNulty

      Your name is incredible, I’ve seen you before…but it has staying power. And yeah, the A-Rod and Burnett deals are down right atrocious

      • candyforstalin

        i basically stole it. (here)

  • http://unclemikesmusings.blogspot.com Uncle Mike

    The Devils were in action? Could’ve fooled me. They lost to the Broad Street Bozos, and Rutgers made me Scarlet with embarrassment as they let the sheep-shaggers from West Virginia walk all over them again.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      It’s crossed out for a reason, you know.

  • Mike HC

    I’m happy the Red Sox had to give up their top prospect and a couple of others for the right to pay Gonzalez a shitload of money. You know the Red Sox are going to get their players, better that they have to give guys up. Kind of like giving up Hanley Ramirez and other pitching prospects for Beckett.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      Except Kelly Beckett.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      Ack…except Kelly < Hanley and Beckett < Gonzo.

      • Mike HC

        At the time, Hanley was a light hitting shortstop, albeit with a lot of potential. His last year in the minors as a 21 year old in AA, he hit .271 avg, .335 opb and slugged .385. He did better on the lower levels and struggled in AA, then got traded. Much like Casey Kelly. And much like the Yanks do too I should add. Tabata was traded the first time he took a step back. Same with Kennedy. Joba we simply shipped to the 6th inning. Montero was basically gone after his slow first half as well.

        It seems the Yanks and Sox share an impatience with prospects at times.

        • Jimmy McNulty

          Kennedy was always an awful fit for the club, I never liked Joba but thought he deserved a better chance.

    • ZZ

      I would much rather the Red Sox have tied up big money to Beltre. Or someone else got Gonzalez and they acquired Fielder.

      • Mike HC

        I don’t expect the Red Sox to operate like the Minaya Mets though. I expect them to acquire top, or underrated talent and not just flashy names or unreliable players. Better that they have to give up a top pitching prospect and other possible contributors than just signing a guy in free agency. I don’t see how the Red Sox would be expected to give up more than that for just one player that they are going to have to pay over 100 million dollars for.

        • ZZ

          Yeah, but if they didn’t get Gonzalez what options did they really have?

          • Mike HC

            I agree that this was the best option for them. And I am thankful there was not an obvious first baseman on the market to fill their need. The situation kind of forced them to part with their top prospect and more. They could have waited and hoped he made it to free agency next year and signed a guy for one year like a 1b/dh type, although that was obviously a risk they were not willing to take.

        • ROBTEN

          Better that they have to give up a top pitching prospect and other possible contributors than just signing a guy in free agency.

          This.

          Even if Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes don’t pan out, it is still another three less “top” prospects that the Sox have for any future deals. Even with several picks in the draft, it still can take some time to restock the system after trading six prospects over two years.

          Meanwhile, outside of Arodys, the Yankees have been fortunate over the past few seasons to give up little more than money, and thus still have a fairly stocked farm system which can be used both for internal replacements as well as for future trades.

  • YankeesJunkie

    Does anyone on this board like college football?

    • candyforstalin

      i’m a soccer fan.

      • YankeesJunkie

        I mean college football I guees

        • Esteban

          I can’t really care. No big college teams around NY and I went to a D3 school.

          • YankeesJunkie

            I understand sort of. I live in Nebraska and I go to Creighton which has no football team so I root for Nebraska. The Northeast is lack of great football teams unless you are a fan of BC or PSU.

            • Esteban

              Yea, I have no connection to either one. I have family members that are fansof/attended FSU, UF, and UM, so that doesn’t really help me either.

              • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

                *pssssst* Pick UM.

            • Betty Lizard

              (Waves)

              I live in Lincoln. I hate football. I try to remember, on game days, that it makes so many other people happy.

              • Jimmy McNulty

                I grew up in Omaha. When I was in HS and on Mondays in the fall and winter every day on the way to school I’d hear “HOW ABOUT DA HUSKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHS” on the only decent radio station in town. That made me hate the Huskers, also my Aunt is a Huskers fan, but she’s a cunt and a horrible human being that gains power from the suffering of others, much like Superman gains power from the sun, so I enjoy it when bad things (like the Huskers losing) happen to her.

                • YankeesJunkie

                  What HS did you go to? I went to Prep.

                  • Jimmy McNulty

                    Bellevue East. I’m going to give you a preemptive “shut the fuck up” also, went to Iowa State for my undergrad now I’m in Law School.

                    • YankeesJunkie

                      Bellevue West seemed to be the better Bellevue School, but I will always remember the good times at Leopard Lanes.

                    • Jimmy McNulty

                      Yeah when I went East just got remodeled before my freshmen year, so it was a bit nicer of a school. From my experience, the teachers had just about the same level of incompetence, i.e. through the roof, Bellevue was always the armpit of Omaha when I lived there. There was a place that was the “Qwiki Wash” and the “Q” fell off so it just became the wiki Wash. Fucking Trash lived around those parts.

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      Duh.

  • Avi

    Prediction: The Casey Kelly hype will now vanish.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      Your prediction: not bold at all. I think this is the first time the MSM is calling Kelly is potential number 2 prospect instead of a guy that belongs with Strasburg.

      A reverse Arodys treatment.

    • Mike HC

      I think I could put up respectable numbers pitching for the Padres. The level of difficulty for sticking in the majors and making an impact has gone down considerably for him now. Like going from Madden level to Rookie.

  • Jenny

    Anyone know why Adrian Gonzalez (1st overall pick of the 2000 draft) was traded away by Florida and later Texas?

    just flabbergasting

    • All Star Carl

      Injuries

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      The Marlins traded him because they needed a closer (Urbina), and ended up winning the WS that year. Texas traded him because they had Teixeira at first.

  • Avi

    Btw the Red Sox are only stuck with Youklils at third for only one season really. Ortiz is a free agent after next season and if Youk is a disaster there they’ll DH him and not bring back Papi for 2012. He’s getting old anyway.

    • Mike HC

      Youk is going to be fine at third base. That is basically a non issue to me, and I’m sure them as well.

  • Accent Shallow

    Can anyone think of a creditable Major League pitcher who has a year in the minors on his resume as bad as Casey Kelly’s 2010?

    • http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

      Brackman’s 2009?

      • JobaWockeeZ

        Major league pitcher. I’m going with Randy Johnson. But they’re way to different to compare.

        • JobaWockeeZ

          Okay I lied. Someone overstated his “suckiness” in the minors to me.

        • http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

          Johan Santana: when he was selected in the Rule 5, he had a career 5.05 minor league ERA over three years.

    • Mike HC

      Roy Halladay. Who is like the poster boy struggling in the minors before turning into a beast. There are probably many, many others.

      • Jimmy McNulty

        Halladay, like Santana, went through a complete transformation before he became good…he’s hardly the example you want to use.

    • http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

      Also, when he was Kelly’s 2010 age, Roy Halladay put up a 4.77 ERA between AA and AAA.

      In 2000, in addition to the 10.64 ERA in 67.2 MLB innings (all time record, min. 50 IP, by the way), he also had a 5.50 ERA in 73 AAA innings. He was 23 for that one.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      What’s your definition of bad? A 5.31 ERA, or 7.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9? You know ERA doesn’t tell the whole story.

      • pat

        IMO the 7.7 k/9 belies his “plus secondary pitches” If he had such good stuff wouldn’t he be striking a lot of dudes out?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Strikeout rate can improve. Banuelos has gone from ~7 to ~8 to ~10 in his three years.

          • pat

            His rates have improved as his stuff has gotten better and more refined which would lead me to believe Kelly’s stuff isn’t as good as advertised. He’s considered to have two plus pitches now along with the low 90’s fb.

          • Jimmy McNulty

            Manny’s lowest was 7.9 and that was his first season in the farm at age 17 (when Kelly was still in HS) in 42 innings, been above eight ever since.

      • Avi

        But Accent Shallow makes a good point. If Casey Kelly is supposed to be regarded as a legit pitching prospect than their should be good Major League pitchers who had a 5.30 ERA in double A with equal or greater playing time there. Are there any?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Adam Wainwright had like, a 5.00 ERA in a year and half at AAA.

          • Avi

            That’s a good one.

            • http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

              Johan Santana had a composite 5.05 ERA across the GCL, low-A, and A-ball in three years when he was selected in the Rule 5.

              • Jimmy McNulty

                exception/rule.

          • Jimmy McNulty

            Wainwright also might have the best curveball in baseball…does Kelly have a similarly dominant pitch? (serious question)

      • Accent Shallow

        428 batters faced, 81 Ks. That’s 18.9%. Which is good, but not spectacular. That’s with 11.2/9 hits allowed. If he’d only allowed 8 H/9, that would give him 374 batters faced, assuming nothing else changes. 18.9% of 374 is 70/71 Ks, which is around 6.7-6.8 K/9.

        I know he’s young for his league, but that’s unimpressive. And that’s without getting to the HR rate (10 in 95 IP) in a pitcher’s league.

        You really have to believe in the scouts here. Now, I recognize the value of scouting, but there as prone to falling in love with a guy “because he looks like a baseball player” as we are from seeing a 10 K/9 and being unable to differentiate Joba from Edwar Ramirez in the minors.

  • JobaWockeeZ

    I feel bad for the Rays because they’re losing a lot and not gaining a lot. Yes there’s Jennings and Hellickson but who knows what they turn into. I don’t see them making the playoffs soon.

    OH WAIT. 2 wild cards in a couple years. Meaning the AL wild card race will be boring to probably every team in it.

    September will be these 3 teams resting players and testing out prospects. Unless something seriously bad happens again like red Sox Injury of Death but still won8 89 games. Good job Selig.

    • Hughesus Christo

      Uhhh… there are issues with adding another playoff team, but killing pennant races sure ain’t one of ‘em. It is damn near impossible to have three 90+ win teams in the same 5 team division. The race to be the second WC team the last 5 seasons:

      2010:
      89
      88
      85

      2009:
      87
      86
      85
      84

      2008:
      89
      88
      86

      2007:
      88
      88
      83

      2006:
      90
      89
      88
      86

      • JobaWockeeZ

        The 2nd wild card unless something goes wrong injury wise is going to also go to the AL East.

        The Yankees and Boston both have farms to get high caliber players but have money to get them too. Both lineups are the best in baseball and their pitching outside of bullpens are strong as well. On paper that is.

        The Rays have no money but best farm and will continue to have one of the best ones with potentially 10 picks in the first and sandwich rounds.

        Which team can realistically be close to the wild card? Angels/Rangers, and White Sox? Yuck.

        • Hughesus Christo

          As I said, it is highly unlikely to see three teams get 90+ wins in the same division, especially since Toronto and Baltimore are both upper-mid markets and don’t figure to really “bottom out” in a major way (though they have found ways to get close).

          Here’s a blog post talking about it: http://www.baseball-reference......hives/5285

          It has happened three times in 16 years, and the nightmare scenario you posit has only happened once (NL 2002).

          First of all, the three teams have to be really fraking good to begin with. Then you also probably need two division-mates below 70 wins. Then you need the rest of the league to be pretty terrible on top of that. I just don’t see it being a major issue.

  • cranky

    It is laugh-out-loud funny to read these comments which try to find fault with Adrian Gonzales.
    Makes no sense. Gonzales is one of the best players in the game. Solid hitter with great power and a great defensive first baseman. And, considering he’s spent his career in a big ballpark and in the middle of a less-than-powerhouse lineup, you’ve got to think that Gonzales is going to put up monster numbers for the Red Sox.
    And being “stuck” with Kevin Youkilis at 3B is a joke, right? He’s a solid fielder and a solid+ hitter.
    I mean, call a spade a spade, you know? The Red Sox are going to have a great team–on paper. They had a great team on paper a year ago, too.

    • candyforstalin

      i think youkilis is the most underrated player in this forum.

      • JobaWockeeZ

        How? We all know he’s a .900 OPS or better player. No one says he sucks. Unless he plays left or something.

        • pat

          Luuuuurve when he plays left.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      I haven’t seen anyone trying to find fault with Adrian Gonzalez.

      • ROBTEN

        Since most here are actually calling the trade unfairly balanced in the Sox’s favor, I believe “cranky”‘s post might be part of the “grass is greener” syndrome. As in: if you don’t believe that the trade turns the Sox into the favorites in the East, means that the Yankees need to panic and sign Crawford and/or Werth, and trade Hughes and Montero to the Royals for Greinke while sending Swisher to the Padres for Bell, then you are finding “fault” with Gonzalez.

        The truth is that the Red Sox had to do something to make up for the loss of Beltre and Martinez (worth approximately 11 fWAR last year). This trade makes up for part of what they have lost on offense, but it also cost them prospects and they still need to make up for the loss of Martinez. Where this is finding “fault” with Gonzalez, I am not sure. Perhaps “cranky” could be more specific?

    • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

      I just don’t think Youkilis at 3B is going to make the team better defensively.

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      Well Youkilis will be 32 this season, is coming off of injury and has never played a full season at 3B.
      There’s reason to suspect he won’t be so great at it.

    • deadrody

      It is quite amusing watching people pretend like a 32 year old with injury problems and little more than a full season, total, over his career at third, is going to seamlessly transition to being the fulltime thirdbaseman for the Sox WITHOUT suffering on either offense or defense in the process.

      Youklis was below average at third when he last played it on any regular basis in 2009. Regardless of anything else, Youklis is a significant step down on defense from Beltre.

  • pat

    http://gameinternals.com/post/.....t-behavior

    Very interesting article about the algorithms at work during a game of Pacman. Pretty crazy stuff.

  • ZZ

    Banuelos has pitched 25 more innings in the minors than Kelly.

    • Avi

      Almost everyone says Casey Kelly and Banuelos are about the same. If I’m the Yankees and I can get Adrian Gonzalez for Banuelos, Laird and Heathcott, I jump on it. Even for just one year.

      • Mike HC

        You would trade our top pitching prospect and more for one year of top DH production?

        • candyforstalin

          leave the argument alone. take your facts somewhere else.

        • Avi

          Yes. Betances, Banuelos and Brackman are all about the same level. Banuelos isn’t clearly their #1 pitching prospect by any measure. He doesn’t profile as an ace at this point (though he’s young enough for that to change) He’s not an elite, top 25 prospect, He profiles more as a #2 or 3 starter at this point. Laird and Heathcott’s best purpose to me is to fatten up a trade offer (just like Rizzo and Fuentes), which they’d be doing in this scenario. If Montero is really going to be the starting catcher and Posada the DH then there really isn’t a spot for A-Gon. But If Posada didn’t exist it’s a no brainer for me.

          • MikeD

            Banuelos does rate ahead of the other two. I’m not sure what “elite” means, but right now he does project as front-end. He is our best pitching prospect. He is also a lefty.

            • MikeD

              …and to clarify my post. The scouting reports I’ve read have all moved Banuelos ahead of the other two. A #2 is pretty high to me, so I’d take that and would be concerned about losing a #2 to pick up a player who is a first baseman, when we already have a good one of those.

              If we’re going to move Banuelos, I’d rather it be to fill another hole, not for a one-year rental of a DH.

              • Avi

                Baseball America has Dellin Betances rated as the Yanks’ #1 pitching prospect followed by Banuelos and Brackman.
                There are a ton of pitching pitchers that were much more highly touted than Banuelos that fell on their faces because of injury or otherwise. Mark Prior, Jesse Foppert, Ryan Anderson, Mark Mulder, Kerry Wood, Scott Kazmir and Rick Ankiel are just a few.
                Again, I would absolutely trade Banuelos, Heathcott and Laird for Adrian Gonzalez even without having the window to negotiate an extension with him.

      • ROBTEN

        That, it seems to me, would be a waste of your farm system.

        Yes, Gonzalez is a great player, but the Yankees don’t need Gonzalez because they have their own great 1b in Teixeira. If your trading for him to upgrade the DH — which is fairly unnecessary in the current climate as it has been the case that DH-type players are generally available on the free-agent market for relatively inexpensive contracts — then what will you do with Posada?

        Furthermore, if you give up these three players to get Gonzalez with no plan to sign him, then there are three less players in the system for you to use in the event that a player becomes available for trade that would fill a need that you actually have.

        In other words, if you’re going to trade prospects, then why a trade that is, at best, a luxury but otherwise creates more of a redundancy?

      • JobaWockeeZ

        Why? DH is going to be covered. You can’t get enough starting pitching. With Pettitte retiring and AJ possibly being ineffective Cash can’t buy every starter…

        Oh who am i kidding, they would probably sign Wandy Rodriguez next year than let someone like Brackman get his chance.

  • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

    Well since the Gonzalez trade, the Yankees’ farm system is definitely better than the Sox. (I thought it was close before the trade)

    • ZZ

      I really don’t see how it was close before the trade. The Red Sox best prospect would be at best the Yankees 3rd best prospect and the Red Sox don’t have anyone in their system close to the type of impact player Montero projects to be.

      • pat

        But, but, Jose Iglesias is the best defender in baseball!!

  • Avi

    Gonzalez should get a Teixeira-like deal here. He’s the same age as Tex was when he got his 8 year, 180M deal from the Yanks and is about the same player. No?

    • Mike HC

      At the time of the respective deals, I think Tex was more highly regarded than Gonzalez is now. Also, the Red Sox do not have to get into a bidding war with the Yanks here, like Boston did to the Yanks over Tex. Gonzalez will definitely get a worse deal.

      • whozat

        If that’s so, it’s just because of AL bias. If Gonzalez had had the same amount of screen time playing against the Yanks and Sox over the years, he’s get the same kind of buzz.

        I do think you’re right that that lack of a bidding war will suppress his deal, but he absolutely deserves something like a Howard/Tex AAV over a similar number of years. He’ll rake in Fenway, so he could absolutely say that he’ll walk away from the table and take his changes in free agency at age 29 coming off what will likely be his best offensive production ever. So, he does have leverage.

      • MikeD

        Hard to say. I think they might be equivalents at the time of the deals. Gonzalez’s numbers were depressed by Petco. Teixeira’s best season, based on WAR, rates higher than Gonzalez’s, but they’re close. Gonzalez was better last year, but Teixeira’s extended slump at the start and multiple injuries depressed his numbers. I’m expecting a stronger year from him in 2011, although short of his peak.

        Right now, I see them both as 35-40 HR players in their respective parks. Gonzalez will hit for a higher average. Teix will draw more walks. (A high percentage of Gonzalez’s walks were intentional, and I’m sure there’s quite a few more where they just pitched around him. Those will go away once he’s in the deeper Red Sox line up.) I can see both posting WARs in the 5.0 range next season. Gonzalez is two years younger, so he has the potential for some upside, yet I don’t expect him to get better. He’s been at his peak the past two years, so he might maintain, could slip a little. Teix is probably a touch past peak.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      He definitely deserves a Teix deal. Let’s hope he gets it too.

      • Wil Nieves #1 Fan

        I hope the Sox give Gonzalez a billion dollars.

        • Avi

          Me too. But the Red Sox are smart and I can see them getting him for less $$ and or years than Tex. This would bother me.

          • MikeD

            Agreed. They’ll offer him a lot, and in the spirit of the deal, and to get the chance to come to a team that should be contending reguarly, he may jump at a 5/100.

            Yet he seemed committed to going for free agency and indicated he wanted nothing less than market value. That’s somewhere in the Teix and Howard ranges, so I got to believe he won’t take less than a 5/115, and may demand 6/150.

            So if the Red Sox can’t sign him to an extension, is the deal off? The Sox have dug their heels in before over a few million dollars, and not always to their best advantage.

            • whozat

              Thing is, he could just go to free agency next year and sign that huge deal with a team that will be in contention a lot, perhaps the Red Sox themselves. Unless he can’t face another three months in SD for some reason, there’s no reason at all for him to take that lesser deal.

              • Avi

                The thing the Red Sox have working in their favor here is that Gonzalez is under contract for about $6M this year. That’s about $15M less than his market value. Gonzalez’s only shot at making more money in 2011 is to rework his contract with Boston.

                • whozat

                  He’s not going to give up his shot at an epic payday for 10mm more in 2011.

  • bonestock94

    AGon trade seems fair to me. Shit, the pads only gave up 1 year of him.

    • Reggie C.

      I know its fun to rip on the MSM’s love of Casey Kelly, but there’s a heck of a lot of projection left in Kelly. He can still be a projected front-line starter and i guess he’s headed to AA. Kelly is a premium pick-up for the Pads.

      Rizzo is another quality pick up and i guess the Pads dont exactly have to hold onto him. Iglesias is very boom or bust though and I wish Hoyer squeezed out a better prospect considering the PTBNL isn’t supposed to be a good one.

      The haul could’ve been better but Kelly and Rizzo is an acceptable starting point.

      • Wil Nieves #1 Fan

        I’ve seen Rizzo play. The kid is a beast. He could use some work defensively, but his bat has a lot of potential. I specifically remember seeing him turn on a Rafael Soriano fastball and absolutely crushing it.

  • candyforstalin

    i just hope crawford signs with boston before we get lee. for entertaining read purposes.

    • pat

      I just hope we sign Lee period.

  • Avi

    I think the Red Sox made a great move not brining back V-mart and especially Beltre and instead went after Gonzalez. I was hoping they sign Beltre to a big contract and be stuck with him when he morphs back into, well.. Adrian Beltre.

    • MikeD

      I agree. Losing Beltre and Victor Martinez did create a major hole in their offense, but they’ve addressed one part with the addition of Gonzalez, and they’ll probably address the other part by adding Werth.

      Yankee fans need to keep in mind that if they add Gonzalez and Werth, the two collectively had a lower fWAR last year than did Beltre and V-Mart. I’m not suggesting Beltre and V-Mart are better than A-Gon and Werth, it’s just that that they had better years last season. A-Gon and Werth are much more likely to replace Beltre and V-Mart’s production form 2010 than Beltre and V-Mart would if they stayed. Yet all that means is the Red Sox haven’t improved from last year. They’ll have increased the liklihood they’ll maintain the production.

      Their real improvement will come from the other players being healthy.

      • Avi

        Absolutely. I totally agree, well said.

      • Mattchu12

        Agree 100%. Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis being healthy will impact the 2011 Red Sox more than swapping A-Gon and Werth for Beltre and V-Mart.

  • pat

    I guess the Padres are going to move Blanks back to the OF? To me this trade would have made more sense if they received Kalish instead of Rizzo.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      A friend of mine who used to cover the Padres’ minor league system told me about a time when he tripped over Blanks’ dick.

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

        That sounds… interesting? Painful??

        • Jimmy McNulty

          Well we were talking about Kyle Blanks, I figured that’d be an interesting Kyle Blanks anecdote.

        • Jimmy McNulty

          Why did you want to hear the story? I figured most people wouldn’t want to hear about it.

      • pat

        And how does one trip over another person’s dick?

        • http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S

          I heard Blanks was standing up when it happened…
          medically fascinating.

          • Jimmy McNulty

            Kinda, he was kneeling over a bench in a AAA locker room and it was leaning over the other side. My friend covered them for a website and walked by and got tripped up by it.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      Didn’t have TJS?

      • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

        Didn’t he have TJS recently?*

      • pat

        He did, but it isn’t that big of a deal for hitters. Especially since he’s a 1b.

        • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

          The #Padres will need to add a 1B. Kyle Blanks won’t be ready until well after the season starts, Rizzo likely needs Triple-A seasoning.
          http://twitter.com/FollowThePa.....227241984#

          True, just saw this tweet via rotoworld

  • http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S

    Wanna hear something cool? In 2016, Teixeira and A-Rod will still be playing. They are the only current Yankees I can think of who will be guaranteed anything then. That said, Cano and Hughes will probably still be Yankees then, and Gardner might be there too.
    I’d give Mo an outside chance FTW.

    • Xstar7

      A-Rod should retire by then.

      • http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S

        aw HELLLLL no.
        He and the Yankees will get every dollar they can out of that albatross.
        By 2016 A-Rod might be a DH who only plays 100 games but still, he’ll be on the roster.

  • ZZ

    Heh.

    Heyman tweeted about a half hour ago, “there is optimism the gonzalez trade will happen. but on the of chance it doesn’t, #padres will keep him and won’t field offers. #redsox”

    Trade with the Red Sox or trade with no one? That makes sense…

    • All Star Carl

      Might as well throw in Latos

    • Jimmy McNulty

      I’m sure if Texas comes a calling a deal could be worked out.

    • Hughesus Christo

      Just Jed protecting the shield for his bro.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      I can’t see a player returning once he is that far in the trade process.

      • Mickey Scheister

        Unless the Sox nix the deal, because Adrian wouldn’t accept anything less than Teix did, and would prefer The Second Coming (Casey Kelly), as opposed to a year of A-Gonz.

        • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

          The whole not shopping him around after, that’s the part I dont believe.

      • MikeD

        A-Rod was traded to the Sox and then wasn’t. It can happen. I don’t think the Sox will do the deal unless they work out an extension.

  • Hughesus Christo

    I just got the urge to write down my favorite music of the year, but I’m too indecisive to work it down to 10… so 15 it is. Feel free to ignore and/or call me a dirty hipster:

    Los Campesinos! – Romance is Boring

    Kanye West – My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy

    Arcade Fire – The Suburbs

    Sleigh Bells – Treats

    Charlotte Gainsbourg – IRM

    Beach House – Teen Dream

    Vampire Weekend – Contra

    Best Coast – Crazy For You

    Robyn – Body Talk

    Chromeo – Business Casual

    Twin Sister – Color Your Life

    Die Antwoord – $O$

    Big Boi – Sir Luscious Left Foot: The Son of Chico Dusty

    The Roots – How I Got Over

    Twin Shadow – Forget

    • Kit

      Los Campesinos! are an amazing band. The only Sleigh Bells song I like is Kids and I can’t understand a word of it. Sounds like super catchy gibberish.

      • Kit

        Should be “is an amazing band” not what I wrote there.

      • Hughesus Christo

        Super catchy gibberish is my jam. They are absolutely pointless beyond being loud and catchy. They embrace the frivolity.

        LC took over #1 in my personal rotation. They’ve made some significant changes during their progression as a band, but no false steps yet. “Romance” is more adult, I guess… but whatever. I got to see them live in Brooklyn a few weeks ago. Needless to say, amazing.

    • Sean C

      Sufjan Stevens – The Age of Adz and The Arcade Fire – Suburbs are tied for my “album of the year” vote. Chromeo is frivolous and wonderfully entertaining. The fact that Robyn isn’t getting more spins on the radio than Kesha and other pop/dance music is baffling to me. Other favorite albums: The Morning Benders – Big Echo, Joanna Newsome – Have One On Me, Frightened Rabbit – The Winter of Mixed Drinks, The Black Keys – Brothers, and Broken Social Scene – Forgiveness Rock Record. Ugh, it feels like I took a look at Pitchfork.com and just picked names. That website is a great place to find music, though they do get a little full of themselves with their reviews.

  • Ray the Anti-Handle

    I don’t know why I’m asking, but did anyone read that Gordon Edes piece on ESPN about Theo’s “master plan” in finally landing Gonzalez to complement his brilliant “bridge year” strategy?

    I almost didn’t make it to the end of the article and I kind of wish I stopped reading it halfway through…

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      I am in the middle of it right now.

      I CANNOT STOP LAUGHING.

      Still, it is a rare and remarkable event when a plan falls as perfectly into place as the one drawn up by Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein months ago, or even years ago. Gonzalez is the centerpiece of that plan, which gives the Red Sox certainty at virtually every position on the diamond for at least the next five years.

      Now, the precise meaning of “bridge year” is revealed in all its stunning dimensions, even recasting the decision to lavish a long-term deal last winter on pitcher John Lackey. Even then, Epstein likely recognized the possibility that the successful execution of his plan to acquire Gonzalez would necessitate losing Casey Kelly, the team’s No. 1 pitching prospect. Acquiring Lackey for five seasons cushioned that blow.

      • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

        Oh come on Edes. That’s just nuts.

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

          Jose Iglesias, the Cuban defector with the safecracker’s hands and dancer’s grace, should end the shortstop shuffle of recent years,…

          DANCER’S GRACE

          • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

            That has meme potential.

      • ROBTEN

        Especially when, at least according to recent quotes, it seemed like Theo the boy wonder and Tom Werner were not seeing the upcoming season in the same terms:

        Theo Epstein at the GM meetings: “At some point you need to give a chance to young players, let them build value. [Saltalamacchia’s] one of those guys. [Jed] Lowrie is potentially another, [Ryan] Kalish is potentially another. We’re not going to have high-profile solutions to all our needs. It’s good to have those alternatives that you can turn to and realize that maybe you’re taking an educated gamble but you’re also potentially building a lot of values in those guys, giving them an opportunity to put themselves into the core we’re developing.”

        Tom Werner on sports radio WEEI today: “I want to assure everyone that there is no bridge year here this year. [In] 2011, we’re committed to win. I think Theo would have been the first to say that he was excited about the prospects we had coming up through our system. I think he made a very rare mistake saying that. After that, we did sign Adrian Beltre. We did sign John Lackey. I think Theo would be the first to say it wasn’t his finest Winston Churchill moment…

        I think that we are going to sign, I won’t promise, we are going to sign a significant free agent. We are going to make a trade to improve ourselves. There are some very strong players on our squad who are young. Kalish is strong. We’ve already gotten some interest from people who think that Felix Doubront is a frontline pitcher, although I’m not saying we’re going to trade him. We were hungry to get Saltalamacchia. I think he’s going to have a good year. Jed Lowrie came on at the end of last year and showed that he can play.”

        h/t to Boston Dirt Dogs (from November 17th)

      • deadrody

        Virtual certainty at every position ? For at LEAST 5 years ?

        Excuse me ?

        Question marks existing right now:

        3B – Is Youklis able to play there everyday ?
        SS – Scutaro ? Really ? Or are we talking the “virtual certainty” of Jed Lowrie, with 500 career PA at the ML level ?
        LF – ?? Mike Cameron was supposed to be the bridge here to an unproven prospect, I guess
        CF – Ellsbury ? I’m sure they’d LIKE to consider him a certainty. Does 2010 paint a picture of certainty for you ?
        RF – JD Drew and an as yet unsigned free agent ? or an unproven minor leaguer ?
        DH – I guess you can count this one between Ortiz and Youklis, but if Youk becomes the DH, then who plays 3B ?
        Starters – They have 2 solid ones, and 2 old and declining pitchers there. Followed by…. ?

        THAT is virtual certainty ?

        And furthermore, with the medical staff of bumbling idiots they have up there, is ANY player on the roster a “virtual certainty” ?

  • Sal

    The Redsox fleeced San Diego on the A-Gon deal, I’m shocked Iglesias, Kalish or Bard weren’t in that deal. The guy was a monster in a pitchers park, he’ll destroy Fenway, even having to face better pitching, although the NL West had some pretty good hurlers. Boston Fleeced Cleveland in 09 for V-Mart also, there should be an investigation….

  • Sal

    @deadrody… Ellsbury, Pedroia, A-Gon, Youkilis, Ortiz, Werth, Drew, Salty, Scutaro, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Papelbon, Beckett, Lackey. I’ll leave out Dice-K to humor you. That’s a pretty good core, if you don’t think so your whistling past the graveyard. The only weak link in that group is Salty.

  • All Star Carl

    Seems like in Boston, Theo can do no wrong.

    In New York, Cash can do no right.

  • benjie

    you’re a pair of cunts.