Self-Promotion: Free Agent Forecast, Sabathia, Brackman

Why the Mariners won't trade Felix, redux
Open Thread: Season Review Recap

Sorry folks, but it’s time for a little shameless self-promotion. With free agency now open for business, Joe took part in a three-person panel over at the YES Network, attempting to predict the landing spots of twenty of this winter’s top free agents. This is different that his top 50 predictions from earlier this week, so make sure you check it you.

As for me, I’ve got a pair of posts up at FanGraphs covering two recent Yankees’ transactions: CC Sabathia’s extension and Andrew Brackman’s release. Over at The Yankee Analysts, Hannah wrote about how Sabathia’s deal gives us Yankees fans some piece of mind heading into the offseason. Ain’t that the truth?

Why the Mariners won't trade Felix, redux
Open Thread: Season Review Recap
  • UYF1950

    Mike, earlier today you wrote a piece about the Advantages of the Trade Market. My question is off topic of this piece so I’ll understand if you don’t respond.

    But I recently read a piece on another site that the Braves are shopping Jurrjens. They are what what I read looking to free up salary but are looking for prospect(s) I guess with offensive potential. What do you think and do you think the Yankees have anything to trade that might fit the Braves criteria?

    • Mike Axisa

      Will have a post on Jurrjens tomorrow. Quick preview: stay the hell away.

      • Dunmire

        A HUGE sigh of relief.

        • Jesse

          Not a HUGE sigh of relief a UUUUUUUGE sigh of relief.

      • Greg

        I will be interested in sesing this because it has also been said that the Braves are looking for a power hitting outfielder in return which brings Nick Swisher into the conversation if the Yankees can eat some of the money.

        • Dave203

          I’m sure we could work out a trade, but outside of Hanson, I don’t think we want any of their pitchers (and they’re not trading him).

        • Soriano Is A Liar

          I thought this could have been interesting in a possible deal for Lowe (obviously getting more than just lowe back if you’re going to give up swish AND eat money), but with Lowe moved, I question whether the Braves will move any more starters. Sure they have depth, but with so many young starters, that depth will be important in case of problems.

        • Urban

          Why would we have to eat any of his salary? It’s not like Atlanta is a poor market, and Swisher’s $10.5 million is below-market value, plus it’s only for one year. Atlanta can certainly afford Swisher.

          The real question is what could they trade the Yankees that they need more than Swisher. It’s not Jar Jar.

      • Dave203


        No track record of any sort of durability and hasn’t been consistent from year to year.

        Big no thanks and move on…

        • Greg

          Looking at the stats, I think the injuries would pose more of a concern than anything. But we all thought AJ Burnett would be an injury problem and that has not been the case.

          • Dave203

            Isn’t never a positive to compare someone with AJ, but regardless, AJ was coming off a season with 200+ innings while Jurrjens has been injured in the last 2 seasons. He has little to no track record of being a quality pitcher for any extended period of time.

            No thanks. Much better options in the FA and trade markets.

  • Ed

    Where does the $11m figure for Brackman come from? Besides a tweet that is.

    This old RAB post and Cot’s seem to mostly match up and suggest that he’s only made about $4.5-$5m.

    There was the possibility of performance bonuses, but I’d be amazed if anything he’s done was enough to trigger them. I assumed they’d be based on major league playing time.

    • Urban

      Yeah, I noticed that in the article. I’m pretty sure the Yankees did not pay Brackman $11 million over the past four years, although I’m not sure. I’m not sure anyone is sure beyond Brackman, Boras, the Yankees and the Commissioner’s office!

      That said, if I had to guess, Pete Caldera, the reporter who was the source of the number, basically triple counted. The original value of the deal was reported at $4.55 million, which many outlets reported included a signing bonus of $3.35 million. Caldera treated them as two separate committments, adding the two together, bringing the initial value to $7.9 million. He then perhaps took the $4.45 million number again and divided that by four, figuring Brackman’s yearly salary the past four years as somewhere around a million dollars a year, taking the total value of the deal to more than $11 million.

      I really have no idea what Brackman has been paid, but it appears that Caldera at the very least double counted, and perhaps even triple counted the numbers in the initial contract. Perhaps the $4.45 million contract number and the $3.35 million bonus really are separate payments, but that still only brings us up to $7.9 million.

      All I know is I’ve never seen a full accounting of Brackman’s contract, so I’m not sure I’m going to trust a tweet by Pete Caldera as gospel.

  • Jimmy McNulty

    Ed Valentine’s an awesome writer, always liked his stuff.

  • OldYanksFan

    Colon will be better next year then last. I imagine he will be cheap. Why wouldn’t the Yankees pick him up as a #6 or #7 guy…. or a #5 if there are some propblems. Isn’t he a low risk, decent reward kind of guy?

    • Dave McCann

      I have been thinking about this as well. Perhaps he wants multiple years.

  • Skip

    What are the odds that the Yanks re-sign Brackman to a cheaper minor league deal? Are there any barriers against that happening?

  • D-Rob’s Great Escape

    What was up with Ed Valentine picking Darvish, Buehrle and Garcia to sign with NY? It’s fine if he thinks that but I don’t see the room when they already got CC, Nova, Burnett and Hughes.

    I personally don’t think even Garcia comes back because I believe the Yankees want to upgrade the rotation while keeping the current 4 in the rotation, not stay with the complete 2011 crew because they don’t know what Hughes or AJ will do and they know Garcia could regress into the 4.50 ERA range, according to his xFIP and stuff.

    I would think the Yanks go with their current rotation + 1 but aim for someone with more upside then the Garcia’s of the world like a Darvish, Wilson or some trade target.

    If however their willing to let Hughes pitch in the pen/AAA or pay almost all of AJ’s salary to leave then all bets are off, but I doubt they plan on doing either of those things so that means they can’t bring back Garcia if they want to go after Darvish or someone.

    • Eduardo (My Left Nunez)

      What he’s suggesting is not outlandish. Darvish and Buehrle join CC and Nova as the top four, with Buehrle giving the Yankees the second lefty they crave. Hughes and Garcia fight it out for the fifth spot in Spring Training, with the loser heading to the pen as the pending “sixth starter” if one of the other guys fail or gets injured. That’s how Colon made it into the rotation last year.

      AJ is a goner under this scenario. While we all assume AJ’s contract is untradeable, fact is it is not. Cashman said the Yankees had an offer on the table for AJ last winter but wouldn’t pull the trigger because that would have required them to replace the roughly 190+ innings AJ gives the rotation. With Pettitte’s retirement and losing out on Cliff Lee, the Yankees could not afford to give up AJ’s innings without substantially impacting the workload in the rotation and the bullpen.

      If the Yankees have six MLB starters for five spots (not including their fleet of rookies in AAA) and bring in Mark Buehrle who chews up 200 innings every year with more regularity than Jack Nicholson chews up scenery, then the Yankees will part with AJ Burnett. Yes, they’ll have to contribute money, but Cashman’s words confirm they were considering doing that last year. It’ll be even easier to do that now with one more year knocked off AJ’s contract.

      Now I really don’t expect them to bring back Garcia if they land Buehrle and Darvish, but I don’t think it’s a crazy idea at all.