Dec
18
Tuesday Night Open Thread
ByHere’s your open thread for the night. The Nets are playing, and that’s pretty much it. Use this thread to talk about whatever you like. Have at it.
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This just in:
Swisher still sucks in October.
#BOOM
+1
Cue the ’200 plate appearances is a small sample size’ comments.
This just in:
the offense looks like it kinda sucks w/o him
+1
and he would be the 2nd biggest bat on the team if he was still on the roster
I still think Tex would be 2nd, but fair enough.
Probably Granderson would be above Swisher as well.
Well…it is a small sample size spread over several years at that. I can’t be convinced otherwise.
Did a Swisher/postseason argument just start out of thin air?
The more suprising thing is that is on an A-Rod video thread, and still no Alex hate comments
Dalelama’s probably too busy with his Torrie Wilson sock puppet.
By that logic 99.9% of all players postseason stats have 0 value in evaluating a player.
0 predictive value.
This. I wonder how much hate Tino would have gotten here had the internet existed at the time. You know, before he stopped struggling in the postseason.
Don Larsen doesn’t deserve credit for his perfect game either. Just the lucky winner in a small sample size.
Not to geek out too much, but statistically spreading out the sample into four separate observations offers more (not less) predictive power. In what is basically a 1/4 of a season of PAs, if that whole sample is in one observation you could point to other factors besides simply not being “clutch” (injury/slump/personal issues). But 4 different times spread out over 4 years? Kind of hard to make the same argument.
Not really. Like someone else said, 4 series of PA in August doesn’t mean shit. Why is October a predictive stat? It’s fucking stupid, to be honest.
Because August isn’t distinguishable from the rest of the season. October is.
It’s not distinguishable. Same game, same rules, competition is random year after year.
I don’t think that spreading the events out is better at all. How Swisher played for a few weeks in October 2009 has a lot less to do with how he plays in October 2012 than his performance in August and September of 2012.
They do have zero predictive value. Would you grab 40+ plate appearances from each of the last five Augusts and use them to predict future August performance?
Of course not.
I would, but I am a huge August baseball fan… *wanking motion*
We (as in the general commenters) do it every April and May with Tex. I get its a SSS (degree in Statistica) and all that, but it’s the best to go on and I think it’s a major disservice to baseball players that people into sabermetrics (which I’m a big advocator of) can completely negate playoff performance, good and bad.
Nobody’s negating the performance, good or bad.
The point is just that it doesn’t really have any predictive value.
Exactly.
August is completely different than the postseason. He admitted in interviews that the pressure gets to him, he grips the bat too much, and can’t slow it down, leading to his struggling. Sure, something could change, though he’s had plenty of time to adjust, but it’s certainly a real thing, in my opinion, with him.
The diffrence is ur usually facing good pitching in OCTOBER, and chances are ur facing some mediocre pitching mixed in wit a bit of crap pitching and a touch of good pitching in AUGUST and other months during the season..
If it shows anything, it shows that Swisher is lucky that they don’t have to face playoff caliber pitching yearly, or he’d be long gone outta the pro’s..
Alot of players are like this, they get all this credit becuase they slay the Adam Warrens, Bruce Chens, Tommy Huners of the world, and if there lucky enough to be on a playoff team, they hit for crap once they don’t face those bums anymore..
Its why u can’t fall for a guy like Swishers numbers, because in the end, he’ll hurt u, becasue ur gonna expect some fireworks come postseason, and hes not gonna help u, because hes not good against pitchers who actually have something to offer…
I agree it’s a somewhat small sample size but pretty much every player in baseball history has and will ALWAYS have a small sample of postseason appearances.
With your argument, you’d have to attribute most if not all of the great postseason careers of players like Schilling, Rivera, Jackson, etc. as luck too.
I don’t think you can just write off Swisher’s poor postseason performances completely due to SSS. I think SSS maybe be a part of what’s going on, but I think you also have to entertain the idea that it might just be in his head at this point and he might be pressing. People in all walks of life have different ways of responding to stress and pressure. These guys are not slot machines who operate robotically with completely preset outcomes that can be predicted accurately based on prior performance and who’s outcomes will be similar in all situations across the board.
I definitely think it’s in his head at this point. It’s possible it always has been. Doesn’t mean that can’t change in the future.
I’m not writing it off that he’s been bad. But I am writing it off for predicting future performance. As far as I’m concerned, Swisher’s previous postseason numbers have sucked. BUT, they don’t mean anything for the future. Plenty of players have done exactly that.
Technically it is.
Or more accurately several small sample sizes over several years.
But, yeah, Swisher has sucked in the postseason.
Really? Because the majority of the team has the past few years…
Well I had a freaking amazing day today. Nothing that I can talk about, since I *cough* have the flu *cough* for today, tomorrow, and thursday *cough*.
Good day it is!
ietc
This is also where being married with a small child comes in handy. You can take a sick day and claim one of them was sick and you had to help with child care like, um, someone on this comment section did today.
I got the idea from a customer. I was gonna roll with dead grandfather at first, but that just felt too morbid and I chickened out. Customer was complaining about how all her coworkers have been dropping with a flu going around, and I was just like “……perfect.” I do feel bad though. I hate working at the bank, I my coworkers are awesome. I wish I did have to leave them short handed with no notice like this. But a dream is a dream. At the very least, I’m one a few people who knows what that tall office complex by the Dulles Airport really is.
Ugh, spelling fail. Sorry, I’ve had a few drinks. Kinda had to after the tests I had to take today.
*but* I was just like.
I wish I *didn’t* have to leave them short handed.
Tests???
Everything alright?
Mental tests. Like, SATs on steroids.
Oh ok. Good to know
Many combolations, Elizagerth! I hope you get all my… particles.
In all Cardgage-lessness, however, congrats to you!
Too bad that you won’t be able to see that one hot girl anymore, though.
But at least you’ll have security against Dan Gold’s stalking.
Hot girl at the bank will be missed, but hot girl from high school got me laid when I was home for Thanksgiving. Kinda made me forget about it all.
Bow-chicka-bow-wow.
It’s a shame really. Super, super hot. Really. But sooooo annoying. I could never date her. But…I could do plenty of other things.
Indeed, it does sound as though congratulations are in order… having just transitioned to a much, much better job two months ago, I can tell you there’s no feeling like it…
Pretty close to my dream job at 24…so yeah, pretty cool.
Meanwhile, I’m pretty close to 32 and about to go back to school.
So I guess what I’m saying is fudge ya.
So the real question, I guess, will be “what’s next?” What’s the next big life goal?
I’d love to know more. Send me an FB message when you have the time.
Good luck and hope you get it.
+10,000
Which tall office complex? There are a few, including the “alien spaceship landed badly and a spike broke off during emergency takeoff” CIT building. The Buildings That Officially Are Not There aren’t really that tall…
Nice!
Good luck on getting over that flu!
Save Ferris!
Such a beautiful swing, one of the best righty swings ever.
Ah, the 2 HR/7 RBI inning that gave him 30/100, thanks in part to Maddon being an arrogant windbag and IBB’ing Tex so that he couldn’t take the HR title from Pena.
That was one of the greatest de facto “fuck you” moments I have ever seen.
Just a random TV question, is anyone here a Doctor Who fan? It’s really been getting me through the offseason. Just started the 4th season of the new series today. The show just keeps getting better and better, which honestly had to happen considering the at times low quality of the first season (particularly the first episode… Just plain bad), but really it’s been amazing.
Never seen it, but talk to Plouffy. Or that Raul Ibanez guy who still hasn’t changed his damn handle back. He loves it.
Ah, good to know there are some fans around here. As for you, definitely something to do when you have the time… Just get through the first season. Seriously some people say to just skip it, but I couldn’t.
I’ll check it out. Too busy re-watching The League right now though.
I know the feeling. When it comes to re-watching Arrested Development is my thing. I have a suspicion that my three or so re-watches have impeded my progress with some other shows.
I’m a huge Doctor Who fan, but I’m now firmly of the opinion that the classic series is better than the modern series.
I like Matt Smith a lot, but I haven’t liked the direction of the program overall over the last 3 seasons or so (including the specials that ended David Tennant’s tenure), and the way they left the current season, as of now, has left a really bad taste in my mouth. I’m honestly not sure how much longer I’ll stick with the current season. It really depends on how/what they do regarding the show’s 50th anniversary next year.
Didn’t read much of the comment since I’m not at 11 yet, so for fear of any sort of minor spoiler I’m avoiding, but that’s certainly a reasonable thing to say. I really have no perspective on that since I haven’t watched classic Who, but I’m sure there are things the original did better. As a child of the 21st century (or at least for the latter 12 years of my 18), I doubt I’d have the same sort of appreciation for the old series… probably a good thing, nearly 100 episodes is enough, 700+ would probably kill me haha.
TOM BAKER!
There is none better.
Heh ironically despite my efforts I happened upon a pretty big spoiler right after my comment. Oh well these things happen and it was a pretty vague one.
I’m trying my best to avoid all spoilers regarding the Xmas episode and the episodes to air in the spring.
That being said, I’m not enamored of the previews for the Xmas episode. Those snowmen look like they belong in that Jack Frost horror movie from about 15 years ago.
I was in the Swisher camp until he made the comments about the fans. It just showed that maybe the pressure of October (and more specifically, October in NY) really changes his game for the worse.
Or it doesn’t.
He made comments about fans?
He said that they hurt his feelings.
So what?
Lmfao, What is so bad about him saying that? I can see how it would, fans are complete assholes!
As someone who sat in section 203 for Game 1 of the ALCS, I can say Swisher was totally justified. They weren’t just booing, they were abusing him. Blaming him for Jeter’s injury was among the worst things I heard, but I could make a rather long list of rather distasteful things that were said out there. That’s not the “pressure of playing in New York,” that’s just a bunch of assholes who needed someone to blame. It’s a shame to, I’d enjoyed sitting with the Creatures prior to that. Might have to stick to the right field bleachers a bit more. I can handle hardcore cheering, but unneeded jeering of our own players goes too far.
That’s really sad. I’ve never heard a single fan ever heckle a Yankee from section 203.
Oy. Too* and left field*
I never thought that either, but if the fans/pressure bothered him that much that he said it publicly, you’d have to wonder.
That’s one thing ARod never did, he never took on the fans.
I’m just not convinced what he did can be construed as “taking on the fans.”
He was frustrated. It was a frustrating time for the team and for fans. He said something in public which isn’t necessarily in character for him. I just don’t think it was ever a big deal.
It got blown way, way out of proportion. For that to be a contributing factor to the “the book on New York is closed” narrative is really, really sad. But then, I’m still holding out scant, budget-ignoring hope that he’ll be back in pinstripes in 2013.
Look, it’s how I keep a little tension going during the offseason. Just let me have my dream for now.
Agreed. Plus, you owe me a beer.
I absolutely do. Lost your email with the job switch. Still have my name — including the middle initial? Best way to email me is that at gmail.
I don’t, but I also don’t give a shit about posting my email here.
jlemoine@gmx.com
I like lagers
I thought Swisher’s comments about the fans (really the Bleacher Creatures) was classic Swish: Hey, I love you guys. It hurts you’re booing me!
That’s not what he said, but that’s the feelings.
Meanwhile, the Indians have offered Swisher 4/$50M for a $12.5M AAV. The Yankees should counter. He might even take a little less to stay in NY. He can DH half the time and play the other half in the OF, especially when there’s a lefty on the hill.
Dogfish has a 75-minute IPA made with maple syrup. This is literally the beer gods listening to my prayers at night.
Love Dogfish. I talked to my brother yesterday (home on Xmas break) and he was drinking a Dogfish IPA. Not made with maple syrup, but I need to look into that. Like, now.
Whole Foods had it. First time I’d seen it. Hell, I even like the 120 Minute one.
Ithaca Flower Power’s still my favorite IPA.
I’m pretty sure we’ve had this conversation before. But I’ve never had Ithaca Flower Power. Is that a local NYC thing? Or and upstate thing (because, ya know, Ithaca)?
And I know I’ve told you this before, but you must try Switchback. Only made in VT, but they actually started bottling it this year. Keep an eye out.
Bottled in Ithaca. Had one I got for someone for Christmas sitting right in front of me.
189,189,189,189,189,189,189,189,189,189,189,189,189,189,…..staring at our future.
what about signing Shawn marcum for a year and getting rid of nova? he does have al east experience
Not totally opposed, but you’re selling low on Nova. I like Marcum though. I think I’d rather add Marcum and let Nova start at AAA and see what happens.
Agreed, better to add him with Nova/Phelps, let them battle it out in ST and one of the other two be the Long man and other the 7th starter in AAA.
Nova and Phelps could both be in the rotation in 2014 with Pettitte, Kuroda, and Hughes all possible leaving. So keep both of them.
Because Marcum has injury concerns and is older, so you don’t just “get rid” of Nova to make room for him. You’d actually have to get something decent in return for Nova in order for it to make sense.
Hell, sign Marcum, KEEP Nova unlessyougetareallygoodoffer.
Marcum strikes me as Hughes without the bigger fastball to get away with some extra mistakes (albeit with a better change up). I’d rather not find out if I’m right or not on him.
His changeup is much better. He’s like Edwar Ramirez except a better fastball and less hispanic.
Now The Shield is attacking Rey Mysterio and Sin Cara. So they’ve gone after John Cena, Randy Orton, Kane, Daniel Bryan, Ryback, Ric Flair, Tommy Dreamer and Ricardo Rodriguez and the two aforementioned guys now. Yea, I’m already getting sick of them. This is definitely playing off as non-entertaining, non-charismatic nWo ripoff so far.
Oh man…..give them time. Dean Ambrose can both wrestle and definitely talk. We’ve seen bits and pieces of what he can do, but I do want them in actually matches and actually going over.
Rollins was Tyler Black in ROH. I don’t think I ever got to see him, but he’s legit as well. The third guy is actually the Rock’s cousin and Sika of the Wild Samoans’ son.
Curious to see what happens with Big E. I would have thought they’d keep him off TV until Ryback ran his course a bit. Room for two big guys like that?
I honestly would love to see some women again who can actually wrestle and be given time to do so. I miss the Trish/Lita/Jazz days.
….aaaaaaand you’re reading spoilers. Nerd.
Sin Cara’s legit injured, btw. I imagine they’re writing him off for the time being.
I’m not reading spoilers. There’s a live SmackDown on USA right now. I usually do read the SmackDown spoilers because I wasn’t able to watch it for years, as I always worked Friday nights. Now I can’t break the habit.
And I heard about Sin Cara’s injury. I just don’t feel that they needed to have The Shield be the explanation for it.
Actually reading spoilers. Not happy at my boy Cesaro losing to Ryback.
I can’t believe Cesaro is the same guy I watched clown around as one half of the Kings of Wrestling in the indies.
Cesaro has grown on me. Yea, having him wrestle Ryback two nights in a row is strange, especially since they could only use the countout finish once.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gN-77xrKWw (SFW)
THIS used to be a ton of fun. He’s gotten great as a singles guy, though. He’s going to be around for a while.
His old partner’s now in NXT as well.
I just have this thing against ROH.
Haven’t seen them live in about five years or so, but I went to two shows back in the day and got to see everyone from Punk to Bryan. A lot of really fun stuff and good wrestling. I know its gone downhill since.
First show I went to had several guys planted in the crowd who, during an intense brawl during a match, jumped over the railing and pretty much staged a fake riot, throwing audience chairs all over the place and sending people legitimately running scared.
Do they still do that shaking hands before matches thing? I always found that to be the epitome of pretentiousness.
The editions I saw, which albeit were years ago, were really amateurish, too. And I don’t just mean in that they didn’t have WWE’s production values, because obviously no one would. But it looked like bad WCW programming and the announcing was beyond terrible. In all seriousness, I could have announced better than the guys they had.
I also found that they had this whole “Our shit doesn’t stink mantra.” Then again, I think all of the indies are like that anymore. They all think their product is better than WWE without question.
I said this morning (in last night’s thread) that I’ve got nothing against the performers, but I don’t care for the booking of them so far. It made sense the first few weeks, but since then it has not. I’m willing to give it time to sort out, but the payoff had better be pretty good.
Yeah, there’s nothing to hide. Two of the three guys can wrestle as well as anyone on the roster. There’s even a Punk/Ambrose match you could probably YouTube from Florida last year. Time to have them actually wrestle and WIN.
Bad end/start to the sports year for New York.
Nets struggling, Giants and Jets not really good, Mets dealt away R.A. Dickey, Yankees have become Scrooges. Hockey irrelevant.
Only the Knicks are doing well.
Knicks doing well is all that matters right now
I learned in 2011 not to worry about the Yankees, anything Cash does I trust 100% I might question it but I know he thinks it is in the teams best interest. The only really two moves that were really bad I did not like came from the brothers
I do not believe some old white man that lives in some sort of toy making commune staffed by deformed people in a remote location in the north pole is going to give me a bunch of stuff on Tuesday. Yet somehow I am expected to pass this message on to children.
I’d work on them by teaching that Christmas is about giving, not getting.
Several years back I realized I was quite greedy as a child regarding Christmas. Now I do everything I can to make sure that I give more than I get because, to me, that’s how it should be.
I am actually currently starting the process of doing just that.
Just a passage of maturation.
I just consider Santa Claus to be a spiritual being that lives in all of us and comes out when we gives gifts.
That’s………really frigging sweet, Greg. I really like that.
I feel like I’m no one to rob my son of this moment in his childhood and hope that I am just as thoughtful in letting him down when the time comes.
I don’t judge anyone who chooses to do differently in the least.
Thank you. If you tell your grown up children that one day, I want copyright dollars
I can promise you that, at the very least, my thinking as to how I’ll do it began at your comment.
How I’ve viewed it for years. Glad to see I’m not just insane :P. I love the whole sentiment behind Santa, it’s sad that people try to just discredit it.
Why? You don’t have to at all. That’s up to you. I’m certainly not going to teach my kids that Santa Claus is real. St. Nicholas is a tradition we can dig though (I’m Catholic). Nobody’s saying that you have to do anything.
When you put it like that, the parallels between Santa Claus and Hugh Heffner are uncanny.
Chad Jennings suggests the Yankees claim Russ Canzler off waivers from the Indians. A righty batter who can play all four corners and has some pop (.508 Slg % in over 1000 AAA ABs). Mike, or anyone, any opinion on Canzler?
1,000 AAA at-bats? We might as well just have Eddard start calling him “Ron Canzler” now.
I’d take a flyer on anyone, and he sounds like a guy anyone would want to have batting cleanup on their AAA team.
Or they could just let Mustelier play.
Future HOFer Ronnie Mustelier?
Future valuable bench piece Ronnie Mustelier.
Valuable? I like your optimism. I’m not even sure he’s a bench player. I don’t mean that as a negative. I don’t know what he is.
Shine on you crazy diamond!
My opinion? If he couldn’t crack the Cleveland roster (yes, the same Cleveland roster that has the original Canzler…. Shelly Duncan), then les not get the lube out to go all whack-tactic over him…
That said, any and all moves at the AAA level are ok by me.
Saw Lincoln and Hobbit today, two very good films in very different ways. The writing in Lincoln was outstanding, every time Daniel Day Lewis opened his mouth something almost poetic in beauty came out. However it was very character and set driven in my opinion. That being said, the characters were very well done, and after Clint Eastwood’s argument with a chair at the GOP convention him playing a slightly out of touch racist congressman was pretty funny. The speeches throughout the movie, even apart from Lincoln still had a poetic cadence to it that I can’t really put into words. Also, for a 3 hour movie it flew by.
I almost feel bad I saw the Hobbit on the same day, because while fun and relatively enjoyable, apart from some beautiful works with Special Effects and 3D work it paled in comparison to Lincoln.
Agree with everything you said except Eastwood was definitely not in Lincoln. Are you thinking of Peter McRobbie? Also thought Sally Field was phenomenal in limited screen time. I haven’t seen many movies, but I’d be surprised if she doesn’t win Best Supporting Actress.
I absolutely did…my mistake…idk he looked like Eastwood to me. And Yeah, Sally Field was phenomenal. I hated her character, but then again I’ve always thought that at least history’s portrayal of Mary Todd Lincoln was that of a crazy old bat, and Fields played it to a tee.
I was looking through the cast to see who you were talking about, and I had zero clue there were so many actors I knew whom I didn’t recognize in the movie.
Also, when it comes to Lincoln, Daniel Day-Lewis pulls of the 4am blanket-poncho and tophat look LIKE A BOSS.
Lincoln and Hobbit in one day? That’s some aggressive movie watching. My adult ADD would now allow this.
As for Eastwood, are you thinking of Tommy Lee Jones, who played Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln? Now I know Tommy’s getting up there in age, but I think Clint still has fifteen or so years on him!
BTW I finally watched Men Black III the other day. Avoided it when it first came out, figuring it would be alot of fail after so much time after the first two. Maybe I just had low expectations, but it was actually pretty good.
No, I was thinking of Peter McRobbie, looking back terrible mistake on my part. Thanks for Now Batting for correcting me with the correct name. It’s time like these (middle of the night after 7 hours of cinematic experience and a slight buzz) that I wish RAB allowed editing posts. Also, the further I get away from Lincoln the more I’m thinking that I would absolutely recommend everybody watch it. I feel the story was relatively historically accurate portrayal of the passing of one of the most important human equality rights in history and as I’ve stated the writing and acting are just phenomenal all around.
Ahh, no problem. Although an editing button would be great. It existed here on RAB for a very short while, but then went away as quick as it came. My guess is it was a resource issue, or maybe slowed the site down. It’s easier on smaller sites. This has got to be one of the more trafficked Yankee blogs around.
As for Lincoln, yes it’s a great movie and I’d recommend it. Just warn people it’s heavy dialogue. The movie-goer needs to be in the right frame of mind and know what they’re getting. Glad they did the movie, though. Washington and Lincoln are by far and away the two greatest presidents in this country’s history. No one is close. Those two men lap the field more than Babe Ruth did lapped whole teams in HRs! (I thought I’d try to bring baseball back into the discussion for a second.) So nice to see a quality movie about Lincoln. Maybe now one for Washington. Unfortunately, our two greatest presidents have been reduced to caricatures hawking cars on TV on President”s Day.
“Get off my lawn, you jigaboo chair”
-Clint Eastwood as a racist GOP arguing with a chair…
(Sorry for the use of a semi racist, overly dated term, but I had to stick the character… No offense meant to anyone within earshot. Thanks)
Lincoln is still one of the best movies I’ve seen this year. As of right now, I think the top three for me are Lincoln, Argo and Moonrise Kingdom. Still have a lot to see, though. If DDL doesn’t win Best Actor (which would make him the first person to win it 3 times), something is wrong.
As for The Hobbit, I just saw it Monday in regular 2D since I’m not on the 3D bandwagon unless I feel it’s necessary. It was enjoyable, but it wasn’t as good as any of the LOTR movies and it clearly showed signs of being overly stretched out to satisfy three movies.
You’ve nailed my thoughts on “the Hobbit”, although I think I did enjoy it a little more than you did. The “Riddles in the Dark” scene is my absolute favorite scene in the book and they just nailed it.
I’m cool with plot changes as long as they keep the main events and don’t change characterizations of any of the characters. They just needed Thorin to gain respect for Bilbo a little bit sooner than he did in the book, and that’s fine.
But your criticisms are spot on, and the scenes with Gandalf and Galadriel and Saruman in Rivendell where boring as Hell and totally unnecessary. Radagast was a nice touch though.