Nine questions and eight answers in this week’s mailbag. The “For The Mailbag” form is gone now, so to send us questions, just email us at RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. The pickin’s were pretty slim this week. About half the submissions were some form of this week’s first question.
Many asked: What would it take to get Matt Harvey this offseason?
I had a feeling this was coming. To say Harvey’s recent workload fiasco did not go over well would be a big understatement. Many Mets fans were ready to kick him out the door, and his clunker against the Nationals (seven runs in 5.1 innings) didn’t help matters. Of course, the fans have no say in this, and I would be surprised if the Mets shopped Harvey this winter. They might listen — everyone listens — but I don’t think they’ll be eager to move him.
Just for fun though, let’s talk this out. Pitchers of Harvey’s caliber who are three years away from free agency do not get traded all that often. Very rarely, in fact. The only reasonable approximation I could come up with is the trade that sent Dan Haren from the Athletics to the Diamondbacks in December 2007, which was a baseball lifetime ago. Haren was also 26 and three years away from free agency at the time, and while Haren then wasn’t as good as Harvey now, he was still an excellent young pitcher.
The D’Backs traded six players for Haren and bullpen prospect Connor Robertson (David’s brother!). Here are those six and their rank in Arizona’s farm system at the time according to Baseball America: Carlos Gonzalez (No. 1), Brett Anderson (No. 3), Aaron Cunningham (No. 7), Chris Carter (No. 8), Greg Smith (No. 13), and up-and-down arm Dana Eveland. The D-Backs had a top three farm system back then, so they gave up a ton of talent to get Haren.
That trade happened a long time ago though and player valuations have changed. The Mets don’t want prospects for Harvey anyway. They’ll want ready made MLB players. Their window to win is right now, not two or three years from now. Given their shortstop need, Didi Gregorius would have to be included. How could the Mets do the deal without him? Then you’ve got to add prospects on top of Gregorius. Aaron Judge and James Kaprielian? Luis Severino and Jorge Mateo? I’d want Gregorius, Judge, Kaprielian, and more for Harvey. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)
Anyway, I doubt the Mets would trade Harvey to the Yankees. That seems like something the Wilpons would not approve. Their biggest fear is getting burned on a blockbuster trade with the Yankees. I do think GMs Brian Cashman and Sandy Alderson would do it if they felt it improved the team, but a deal of this magnitude involves ownership. The other 28 teams are going to be after Harvey as well. The Mets will get plenty of great offers. I would be shocked if the Wilpons let him go to the Yankees.
Andrew asks: What do you attribute the light attendance at Yankee Stadium these last couple of weeks? Team is in a pennant race for the first time in three years, A-Rod has been resurgent, exciting young players. What gives?
The attendance (or lack thereof) was especially noticeable during the Orioles series for whatever reason. The Yankees do lead the AL in attendance this season, both total (2,760,549) and per game (40,008) — they’re third in total attendance behind the Cardinals and Dodgers, and fourth in per game attendance behind the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Giants — but they’re down 2,236 fans per game from last season. That is somewhat expected because there’s no Derek Jeter retirement tour. I’m guessing there are several factors at play here and it’s not just one thing. The Yankees are good this year and they’re in a division race, so that isn’t the problem. It could be ticket pricing, or maybe fans don’t care about a Jeter-less team, or perhaps they’re all jumping ship and rooting for the Mets. I don’t have an answer and I’m note sure it’s possible to give a complete one anyway.
Sam asks: Didi has hit .314/.354/.429 since the All-Star break whereas both first time All-Star Brett Gardner (.201/.303/.278) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.223/.264/.352) have really seemed to fall off, whether because of injury or otherwise. Why not put Didi higher in the lineup?
There are a few reason why this hasn’t happened, I think. One is the fact the Yankees aren’t going to drop Ellsbury in the lineup less than two full years into a seven-year contract. That’s just not going to happen no matter how much he struggles. Gardner’s situation is a little similar — this is year one of his four-year extension and he’s been no worse than the second best player on the team for three years running now. Joe Girardi’s pretty loyal and I don’t think he’d drop Brett.
As for Gregorius, I think there is an element of “this is working so let’s not mess with it” at play. Replacing Jeter seemed to overwhelm Didi back in April and May. What happens if you ask him to hit first or second in a postseason race? I don’t think it would be a big deal, but I could understand why Girardi and Yankees may be hesitant. I’m cool with letting Gregorius rake at the bottom of the lineup. If Ellsbury and Gardner don’t start hitting, the Yankees aren’t going anywhere anyway, no matter where Girardi slots them in the lineup.
P.J. asks: Assuming both the Yankees and Rangers get the 2 American League Wild Card spots, who should the Yankees start in that game?
Wyatt asks: How do you see the postseason rotation shaping up? I think Tanaka, Eovaldi, Pineda and Severino.
Might as well lump these two together. As I said last week, I would start Masahiro Tanaka in the wildcard game, regardless of opponent. Rangers, Twins, Angels, Astros, whoever. It amazes me anyone would even seriously consider starting someone else. He is clearly the guy for me. Should the Yankees not win the AL East, hopefully they’ll be in position to set up their rotation and start Tanaka in the wildcard game, and not need to start him in Game 162 just to get in or something.
Nathan Eovaldi’s injury complicates the postseason rotation situation — Wyatt sent his question in before Eovaldi’s injury — and how I would line it up is likely very different than how the Yankees would. I’d go Tanaka in Game One followed in order by Michael Pineda, Severino, and CC Sabathia. (Sorry, Ivan Nova.) The Yankees would probably go Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Severino. I also think there’s a non-zero chance they’d start Nova over Severino. You know they’ll give Sabathia an October start. They’ve given us no reason to think otherwise. Hopefully we can discuss this again in a few weeks. Let’s worry the Yankees getting to the postseason first.
Adam asks: Does Greg Bird start next season with the big club? He seems perhaps too unidimensional for a bench role early in the season with this roster.
Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez are not only going to be on the roster next season, they’re going to play every single day. Barring injury, the only way Bird gets at-bats is as a pinch-hitter and occasional spot starter. So yes, he is too one dimensional for the bench. The four-man bench will include a backup catcher (John Ryan Murphy), a backup middle infielder (Brendan Ryan?), a backup outfielder (Dustin Ackley), and then a fourth guy. Bird could be the fourth guy, but a right-handed hitter who could play somewhere other than first base would fit the roster better. I’m totally cool with sending Bird back to Triple-A to start the season. Teixeira and/or A-Rod will probably get hurt at some point anyway — Bird hasn’t been all that durable either, he’s had shoulder and back problems — which will free up playing time. It could very easily work out where Bird, Teixeira, and A-Rod each end up playing something like 100-120 games. If everyone’s healthy though, yeah, I say send Bird to Triple-A to work on his defense. It won’t be the end of the world.
Anonymous asks: In light of the Mets current success, do you envision the Yankees abandoning their fiscal, belt tightening policy and go big for big agents this coming off season?
I don’t think anything the Mets do this season will impact the way Yankees behave going forward. George Steinbrenner would have gone bonkers over the Mets winning but Hal Steinbrenner seems much more measured. The Mets winning the NL East or even the World Series has minimal impact on the Yankees. It won’t change their roster, change how they project going forward, nothing. Changing gears and altering a team-building plan because a crosstown team — not even a division rival! — does something is no way to create a successful team. The back pages aren’t worth the fight. Who cares about the Mets? Outside of the Subway Series each season, they’re irrelevant to the Yankees.
Matt asks: To beat a dead horse harder, would you trade Ellsbury for Robinson Cano + money at this point? We could slide Gardner to center and sign Justin Upton or Jayson Heyward. Thanks!
I guess that depends how much money, right? If the money worked out so it was a wash, I’d do it in a heartbeat even though Cano’s contract is longer. Love Robbie, he was an incredible Yankee, but I wanted no part of him on a ten-year contract. At the same time, if I had known the backup plan was seven years for Ellsbury, I’d have done ten for Cano instead. Cano started very slow this year but has hit .328/.381/.522 (153 wRC+) since July 1st, which is regular old Robbie. Sometimes a bad slump can be explained by non-baseball reasons. Simply put, I think his decline phase will be more productive than Ellsbury’s. I’d do the trade if the money was a wash. But why would the Mariners do it? No reason for them to make that trade.
Neil asks: Give me your current list of top 10 most likely Hall of Famers among active players (more or less in order).
I assume you’re asking who I think will get in, no who would get my vote. A-Rod, for example, has a first ballot Hall of Fame resume and I would vote for him, but he’ll never get in. So he’s not in my top ten. Here are my ten in approximate order of likelihood of induction:
- Albert Pujols
- Ichiro Suzuki
- Adrian Beltre
- Miguel Cabrera
- Felix Hernandez
- Clayton Kershaw
- David Ortiz
- Robinson Cano
- Carlos Beltran
- Mike Trout
Pujols and Ichiro are no-brainers and while Beltre’s not a lock, he’s close to it. He seems to be getting more and more support each year. Miggy, Felix, and Kershaw have already built their Hall of Fame foundations and now just need to do some compiling. Ortiz is tricky because of the whole performance-enhancing drug thing. He’s largely gotten a free pass (as did Andy Pettitte!) but Hall of Fame voters have refused to look the other way thus far.
Cano probably needs another elite year or two on his resume, plus a few good years after that to beef up his counting stats, then I think he’s in. (I’d expect him to wear a Yankees hat on his plaque.) Beltran is borderline. You could argue both ways convincingly. Trout is well on his way to Cooperstown but is only 24. He has a lot of years left to play and that means lots of time for things to go wrong. I’m not missing anyone obvious, right? Chase Utley is probably No. 11 on the list, though he seems perpetually underappreciated and might not get enough support.
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