Last night Ivan Nova, not Masahiro Tanaka, started the Yankees’ series finale against the Blue Jays. Tanaka suffered a Grade I right hamstring strain running the bases last Friday, and although he said he could have started last night, the Yankees played it safe. “I can’t say 100 percent, but I believe he will (make his next start),” said Brian Cashman to George King earlier this week. “He felt he could have pitched Wednesday.”
The Yankees are 3.5 games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East following last night’s loss (three in the loss column), and there are only eleven games remaining in the regular season. Catching (and passing) Toronto is not impossible, just very unlikely. FanGraphs puts New York’s odds of winning the division at a mere 6.2%, and those odds have taken an embarrassing tumble over the last few weeks:
Sheesh. This just completed series in Toronto was the Yankees’ big chance to climb back into the AL East race and they didn’t take advantage. So it goes. The Blue Jays are the better team and they deserve the division title. That’s been made abundantly clear over the last few weeks.
The Yankees remain a postseason caliber team, however. They’re four games up on the Astros for the top wildcard spot (five in the loss column) and five games up on the Twins for a wildcard spot in general (also five in the loss column). The magic number to clinch a playoff spot is a mere seven. Even if the Yankees go 5-6 in their last eleven games, the Twins need to go 11-1 just to tie and force a Game 163 tiebreaker. Again, it’s not impossible, just really unlikely.
With the division title looking out of reach, the Yankees now have to focus on lining Tanaka up to start the wildcard game, assuming the hamstring is healthy, of course. The injury doesn’t seem like it will be a lingering issue — Tanaka will have a check-up today, then the Yankees will reportedly decide when to re-insert him into the rotation — but who knows with hamstrings. Hopefully Tanaka is back out there soon. It would be very bad if he wasn’t. He’s their most reliable starter by a mile.
Tanaka’s temporary hiatus does give the Yankees the freedom to re-insert him into the rotation whenever it is most convenient with regards to the wildcard game. The AL wildcard game is scheduled for Tuesday, October 6th, and given the way they’ve operated all season, I’m guessing the Yankees will want Tanaka to make that start with an extra day of rest. The numbers say he’s better on regular rest, but finding the extra day has been the priority all year.
Working backwards from the wildcard game, here’s what Tanaka’s schedule would look like with one extra day of rest for each start:
Thursday, September 24th vs. White Sox
Wednesday, September 30th vs. Red Sox
Tuesday, October 6th in wildcard game
So Tanaka would have to start tonight if the Yankees want to line him up for the wildcard game with an extra day of rest before each start. Obviously that won’t happen. He’s not pitching tonight. The Yankees could always “skip” tonight’s start against the White Sox and instead give Tanaka some extra time to let the hamstring heal, roll him out there against the Red Sox next Wednesday as a tune-up, then head into the wildcard game. That’s an option too.
Starting Tanaka on regular rest is another option and the Yankees have been more willing to do that down the stretch — he’s made his last two and three of his last four starts on normal rest after doing it just twice in his first 19 starts. Besides, Tanaka’s getting extra rest right now, right? The hamstring injury is giving him a little bit of a breather. An unintended breather, but a breather nonetheless. He might not need extra rest after this.
So again, working backwards from the wildcard game, here’s how Tanaka’s end-of-season schedule would shake out with each start coming on normal rest:
Saturday, September 26th vs. White Sox
Thursday, October 1st vs. Red Sox
Tuesday, October 6th in wildcard game
Of course, the Yankees could also let Tanaka make one start on extra rest and the other on normal rest. They’ve have to start Tanaka against the White Sox tomorrow to make that happen, then either start him next Wednesday (normal rest) or Thursday (extra rest) to line him up for the wildcard game.
The hamstring might dictate the team’s course of action down the stretch. My guess is the Yankees will want Tanaka to have extra rest at some point, either before his final regular season start or the wildcard game. He’d have to start tomorrow to make that possible. (Either that or Tanaka only makes one more regular season start, not two.) Will the hamstring allow that? The injury sounds minor but who knows. The last thing the Yankees need is Tanaka re-aggravating the injury and being unable to start the wildcard game.
Realistically, the Yankees have to focus on the wildcard game now. No, they’re not mathematically eliminated from the AL East yet, but a 3.5-game deficit with eleven to play is damn near impossible to make up. This series in Toronto was their best chance to get back into the race and it didn’t happen. So be it. Lining Tanaka up for the wildcard game is a priority now, and as long as the hamstring issue isn’t serious, the Yankees will be able to give him as much or as little rest as they want leading into the play-in game.
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