Masahiro Tanaka and the Quest for 200 Innings [2016 Season Preview]

We’ve learned quite a bit about Masahiro Tanaka over the last two seasons. First and foremost, he’s as good as any pitcher in the league when he’s at his best. Tanaka has the ability to dominate any lineup. Remember his complete game win over the powerhouse Blue Jays in August? Of course you do:

We’ve also learned that even when Tanaka is not at his best, he’s still pretty good. He’s made 44 starts for the Yankees the last two seasons and he’s allowed more than three earned runs only nine times. He’s allowed more than two earned runs only 20 times. That’s two or fewer earned runs in 24 of 44 starts. Pretty good. Tanaka very rarely has a disaster start. In fact, he’s failed to complete five innings only twice in two years. He went four innings on Opening Day last year, and he had that 1.2 inning disaster in Fenway Park to close out the 2014 season.

These last two years have also shown us Tanaka’s health is a question. He was a workhorse in Japan, but he’s currently pitching with a partially torn elbow ligament and he had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow over the winter. A forearm issue sidelined him for a month last year. Tanaka was limited to 136.1 innings in 2014 and 154 innings in 2015 due to the arm injuries. That’s the scary part; they’re all arm injuries. And yet, Tanaka says he’s ready to throw 200 innings this summer.

“I think I was able to clear some stuff out of (my elbow). I feel that it’s better this year compared to last year,” said Tanaka when he reported to Spring Training. The “stuff” he is referring to is the bone spur, which he insisted did not bother him during his starts. “As far as my conditioning goes, I’m at a pretty good place. I feel that for myself, I’m right where I want to be at this point.”

When Tanaka is healthy, he’s pretty good. Last year he had a 3.51 ERA (3.98 FIP) in those 154 innings — if WHIP is your thing, his 0.99 WHIP was the lowest in the AL among pitchers who threw at least 150 innings — and while that’s not ace-like, it’s pretty good for a dude with a partially torn UCL and a bone spur in his elbow. That said, there are some clear questions and concerns with Tanaka going forward.

How’s The Elbow?

From what I understand, ligaments do not heal themselves. The tear just doesn’t get worse. Tanaka has already pitched a season with his partially torn UCL and at this point he is one of the exceptions. Most players who attempt to rehab a partial tear never complete the rehab before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Tanaka is closer to Adam Wainwright and Ervin Santana, both of whom pitched several years with partial tears (Santana is still pitching with his), than guys like Matt Harvey and Drew Hutchison, who had to go under the knife before completing the rehab.

The ligament is going to hang over Tanaka’s every start going forward, and at some point his elbow may blow out. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe ten years down the line. No one knows when it’ll happen (that’s not going to stop a whole bunch of people from saying “I told you so!”). Last spring I was on edge with every pitch. That fear has faded, thankfully. Tanaka threw 154 innings with the partial tear last year. The rehab worked.

Beyond the ligament, the bone spur surgery is significant. The Yankees took it slow with Tanaka early this spring for obvious reasons, and so far everything is going well. During his first Grapefruit League start over the weekend, Tanaka was breaking off embarrasplitters like this:

If there are any lingering effects from the elbow surgery, we’ve yet to see them or hear about them. The Yankees went to great lengths to give Tanaka extra rest last season — he made 19 of his 24 starts with at least one extra day of rest — and I have no doubt that will be the case this year. He’s lined up to start Opening Day right now and yes, there is an extra day of rest between each spring start built into his schedule. Thanks to all the April off-days, Tanaka will be able to make his first four regular season starts with extra rest as well.

Tanaka’s elbow is healthy. The doctors have all cleared him and he’s completed all his rehab work. The partial UCL tear lingers uncomfortably in the back of everyone’s mind, and the bone spur surgery sucks in the sense that all surgeries suck, but there’s really nothing the Yankees can do other than give him extra rest and monitor him closely. That’s it. Pitchers get hurt. That’s what they do. Tanaka has managed to avoid catastrophic injury the last two years and hopefully that continues to be the case going forward. What else can you do?

Can He Keep The Ball In The Park?

When on the field last season, Tanaka posted very good strikeout (22.8%), walk (4.4%), and ground ball (47.0%) rates. He was equally effective against righties (.280 wOBA, 21.3 K%, 4.1 BB%) and lefties (.296 wOBA, 24.6 K%, 4.8 BB%) as well. Tanaka’s really good! I know a lot of people don’t want to believe it for some reason, but he is. I promise.

The only significant flaw in Tanaka’s game is his propensity to give up home runs. He allowed 25 dingers last season — 17 at Yankee Stadium and eight on the road — including a six-start stretch at midseason during which he gave up eleven homers in only 38.1 innings. Yikes. Tanaka also allowed two solo dingers to the Astros in the wildcard game. His 1.46 HR/9 was ninth highest among the 89 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings in 2015. His 16.9 HR/FB% was fourth highest.

The homers are a problem. There is no denying it. The vast majority last season came on mistake pitches thigh high and right out over the plate. It’s not like he was making good pitches and getting burned anyway:

Hit Tracker classified 17 of the 25 home runs as either “Plenty” or “No Doubt,” meaning they cleared the wall with plenty of room to spare. Tanaka fell victim to some Yankee Stadium cheapies like everyone else, but the majority of the dingers he allowed last year were true bombs. He made mistakes and he paid. This is the big leagues, yo.

No one pitch accounted for most of the home runs. Tanaka allowed eight homers on four-seam fastballs, six of sinkers, four on splitters, four on sliders, two on curveballs, and one on a cutter, and that kinda sorta mirrors his pitch usage. Tanaka’s a big boy. He knows he gave up an alarming number of home runs last season and he knows the problem is simply too many mistake pitches.

I feel Tanaka’s unpredictability — he does throw six different pitches, including five regularly — allows him to get away with more mistake pitches than most, but he’s not going to get away with all of them. For a guy without overwhelming velocity — his average fastball last year (92.0 mph) has faster than the year before (91.1 mph) despite what everyone seems to think — Tanaka can’t live in the middle of the plate. If he can limit the mistakes, he’ll limit the homers. Easier said than done, of course.

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I don’t know about you, but I am very confident in Tanaka’s talent and his ability to be an above-average starter. The homers stink, but he’s so good at everything else that they usually don’t burn him. (Nineteen of the 25 dingers were solo shots.) My only concern is health. If Tanaka stays healthy, he’ll be good. If he doesn’t, the Yankees are in trouble. Getting to 200 innings would be incredible. If Tanaka throws that many innings he’ll get Cy Young votes. But, if he only ends up throwing 180 innings because the Yankees give him extra rest in an effort to keep him healthy, that works too.