Archive for Players
Diana Munson at Jorge Posada’s Retirement Press Conference
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees knocked it out of the park with Jorge Posada‘s retirement press conference today, the entire event was extremely well done. Diana Munson, Thurman’s widow, stole the show with her three minutes at the podium I thought, so I’m passing along the video here if you missed it.
The Jorge Posada Retirement Press Conference Liveblog
Posted by: | CommentsAfter 17 glorious seasons with the Yankees, Jorge Posada will officially announce his retirement from baseball today at 11am ET at Yankee Stadium. He spent his entire career in pinstripes and retires as a .273/.374/.474 career hitter with 275 homers and five World Series rings (though all he did in 1996 was tag along for the ride). Posada has a prominent place in Yankees history and his career 44.9 bWAR is tenth most in baseball history among players who spent at least 75% of their career games behind the plate. He’s not a lock for the Hall of Fame, but Jorge has a very good case and figures to spend several years on the ballot.
The press conference will air live on the YES Network, Yankees.com, and MLB.com LIVE. I’ll cover the entire thing from start to finish here.
The Other Guy
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Splitter! (AP Photo/Al Behrman)
It’s not often that a team can sign a starting pitcher to an eight-figure contract and have it be only the second biggest move of the day. That’s exactly what happened last Friday, and the Jesus Montero-Michael Pineda trade continues to overshadow the Hiroki Kuroda signing. The one-year, $10M deal will become official as soon as Kuroda takes and passes his physical, something that is expected to happen in the near future and without a problem.
As exciting as Pineda is, the Yankees needed a veteran guy to help stabilize a rotation that was shaky beyond CC Sabathia. Ivan Nova pitched very well in the second half last year but is still a guy with one big league season under his belt like Pineda. Freddy Garcia was solid as well in 2011, but his kitchen sink act could blow up at any moment. A.J. Burnett is a known quantity, and unfortunately that means he’s going to be below average. Phil Hughes is a total enigma. Kuroda helps provide that stability at a reasonable price.
It’s no secret that the Yankees have liked Kuroda for quite some time, dating back to the August waiver trade period in 2010. They reportedly considered him the second best pitcher on the free agent market last winter, but didn’t get a chance to pursue him because he re-upped with the Dodgers during the exclusive negotiating period. They made a push for Kuroda at last year’s trade deadline but couldn’t work out an agreement, but it wouldn’t have mattered since he invoked his no-trade clause and refused to come east and pitch for the Red Sox. Once the Dodgers pushed him out of the picture this offseason, he changed his mind and came the New York.
Kuroda will turn 37 next month, and he’s thrown at least 180 IP in three of his four seasons in MLB. The one exception was 2009, when an oblique strain shelved him for two months and a concussion (caused by this) cost him for another three weeks. In the two years since, he’s made 63 starts and thrown 398.1 IP. There’s little chance Kuroda will repeat the 3.23 ERA and 3.52 FIP he posted from 2010-2011 given the shift to the tougher ballpark in the tougher division, but adjusting upward half-a-run or so still gives us a ~3.80 ERA, ~4.00 FIP pitcher. Not an ace, but a valuable starter.
The transition to Yankee Stadium and the AL East is a very real issue, but it should help that Kuroda will be throwing to a catcher who knows him well. Russell Martin caught 71.8% of the right-hander’s innings while with the Dodgers from 2008-2010, so there’s certainly some familiarity there. As a true four-pitch guy — low-90′s four-seamer, low-90′s sinker, mid-80′s slider, mid-80′s splitter and a show-me high-70′s curve — with a bit of a reputation for pitching backwards, I’m sure he’ll appreciate having someone behind the plate that knows his stuff and what he likes to throw to certain hitters in certain counts. I don’t know how much it’ll help, but I have a hard time believing it won’t help in some way.
The trade for Pineda is a long-term move. The Yankees acquired him in hopes that he will contribute something now and develop into a dominant, top of the rotation starter down the road. Kuroda is just a band-aid, a short-term solution on a reasonable contract designed to improve the team’s chances of winning in 2012 and nothing more. He’s been successful during his first four years in MLB as a moderate strikeout (6.73 K/9 and 18.0 K%), low walk (2.10 K/9 and 5.6 BB%), and above-average ground ball (48.6%) pitcher, which is all the Yankees are asking him to be again next year. Kuroda won’t garner as much attention as Pineda, but he’s more important to the 2012 team.
Introducing Michael Pineda
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(AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
The dust is still settling from Friday’s blockbuster trade, which will send Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners in exchange for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos. All four players must still take their physicals, a bit of a formality required to make the trade official, and that should happen within a week or so. While all that is going on behind the scenes, let’s take a few minutes to get to know Pineda, the soon-to-be newest member of the Yankees’ starting rotation.
Pineda, who turns 23 tomorrow, grew up in the Dominican Republic and signed with the Mariners in December of 2005 for a measly $35k . He spent the 2006 and 2007 seasons in the Dominican Summer League before coming stateside in 2008. Seattle sent Pineda to Low-A as a 19-year-old that year, and he struck out 128 (8.3 K/9 and 23.2 K%) and walked just 35 (2.3 BB/9 and 6.4 BB%) in 138.1 IP across 21 starts and five relief appearances. After the season, Baseball America dubbed him the team’s tenth best prospect.
Sent to High-A to open 2009, Pineda made just six starts before a sore elbow popped up and the team shut him down for close to three months. He ended up throwing just 47.1 IP that season, striking out 52 (9.9 K/9 and 29.2 K%) while walking just six (1.1 BB/9 and 3.4 BB%). Baseball America still considered him the Mariners’ sixth best prospect that offseason. The 2010 season was Pineda’s coming out party, as he utterly dominated the competition in 139.1 IP split almost evenly between Double and Triple-A. With his now healthy elbow, he whiffed 154 (9.9 K/9 and 26.7 K%) while walking just 34 (2.2 BB/9 and 5.9 BB%), then was ranked as Seattle’s second best prospect and the 16th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. The only pitchers ahead of Pineda on the top 100 list were Julio Teheran, Jeremy Hellickson, Aroldis Chapman, Jameson Taillon, Shelby Miller, and Matt Moore.
Pineda made the Mariners’ Opening Day rotation last year thanks to his strong showing in Spring Training (16 K and 5 BB in 15 IP), and he made the team look really smart. After pitching to a 3.03 ERA with 9.0 K/9 (25.0 K%) and 2.9 BB/9 (8.0 BB%) in 113 IP during the first half, Pineda was named to the AL All-Star Team and threw a perfect third inning with two strikeouts in the actual game. His ERA came back to Earth in the second half (5.12), though his strikeout (9.3 K/9 and 24.6 K%) and walk (2.9 BB/9 and 7.8 BB%) numbers didn’t suffer at all in the 58 IP sample. Pineda’s BABIP did correct a bit in the second half (.247 pre-ASG and .286 post-ASG), and the Mariners limited his workload by having him skip a start in early-August and two more in September.
He makes scary faces when pitching. This is a plus. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)
The numbers sure look great, and the scouting report backs them up. Before the season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) said he throws “a crisp fastball that sits at 93-97 mph and gets as high as 101 with explosive life and occasional heavy sink” and a “quality slider.” They also said he “did a better job of selling his upper-80s changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball, keeping it down and getting hitters to chase it.” The PitchFX data from last season backs up that scouting report, and it’s worth noting that he threw that changeup just 2% of the time to righties and 11% of the time to lefties. That’s the pitch he needs to focus on to reach his substantial ceiling.
Speaking of enormous, that’s the best way to describe Pineda. The kid is listed at 6-foot-7 and 260 lbs. on Seattle’s official site, which is probably how big CC Sabathia was at that age. You can’t help but look at a frame like that and think 230 IP a year, every year. I have to imagine he’s an uncomfortable at-bat as well, this gigantic long-levered guy on the mound unleashing mid-90′s heat. There’s bound to be an intimidation factor in play here. Given his results — held hitters to a .211/.279/.342 batting line last year, righties to .184/.261/.326 — I’m guessing opposing batters were a little antsy in the box.
A few weeks ago Keith Law ranked Pineda as the 20th best player in baseball under the age of 25, the fifth pitcher on the list behind Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, and Brett Anderson. “He has the size and stuff to continue to pitch as he did in 2011,” said KLaw in the write-up, “but improving his changeup, really a show-me offering with virtually no action on it right now, would help him get to ace level.” You’ll hear quite a bit about the changeup in the coming weeks and months, I imagine. It’s the great equalizer, and in fact Brian Cashman told Jim Bowden that he’ll consider the trade a failure if he doesn’t improve the pitch and develop into a top-flight starter.
The Yankees gambled on upside by acquiring Pineda, just like the Mariners gambled on upside by acquiring Montero. Pineda’s power stuff is well suited for the rugged AL East, as is his knack for strikeouts and uncanny ability to limit walks at such a young age despite the huge fastball. We’ve been saying the Yankees should only trade Montero for a young, high-end starter with several years of team control remaining for quite some time now, and that’s exactly what they got in Pineda. He’s not a finished product, but he sure is starting from a high baseline with that electric fastball-slider combo and monstrous build.
The Jorge Vazquez Option
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(N.Y. Post: Charles Wenzelberg)
With the rotation questions answered (pending physicals), the attention has shifted to the Yankees’ now vacant DH position. It didn’t take the team long to get in touch with Johnny Damon, Carlos Pena, and Hideki Matsui, but with limited room in the budget they might look for an even cheaper solution. Buster Olney, Bryan Hoch, and Andy Martino each reported over the weekend that the Yankees consider Triple-A masher Jorge Vazquez a potential DH option heading into the season.
As Marc Carig recently explained, the Yankees found Vazquez when Michael Fishman, their in-house stats guru, got a whiff of his impressive stats in the Mexican League. From 2005-2008, the man they call Chato — Spanish for “short and chunky,” according to Carig — hit .352/.405/.698 with an average of 25 homers per year in a league where the season is less than 110 games long. Lee Sigman is the team’s top scout in Mexico, and he swooped in to sign Vazquez after he popped up on the team’s radar.
Unsurprisingly, Vazquez has done nothing but mash during his two and a half years in the organization. He owns a .284/.327/.555 batting line with 63 homers in 261 games between Double and Triple-A, and he goes back to Mexico for winter ball every year and does more of the same. This winter he put up a .330/.397/.618 line with 18 homers in 56 games. In 174 games between the regular season and winter ball, he hit 50 balls out of the park.
“He can hit homers everywhere,” said Ramiro Pena to Carig after playing with Vazquez for a number of years in Mexico. “Everybody down there in Mexico knows Chato … Tremendous power. He makes it look so easy.”
Yankees fans caught a glimpse of Vazquez last Spring Training, when he hit .412/.444/.765 with three homers in 35 plate appearances, including this mammoth blast over the batter’s eye in dead center. He few months prior to that he was named MVP of the Caribbean Series.
“He’s a major-league bat,” said Brian Cashman to Carig. “But he’s blocked more than anything else.”
Being blocked is just a small problem because Vazquez is a true DH without any defensive value, and now that job is wide open. He can stand at first base and receive throws from other infielders as well as fake third base in the way Eric Hinske can, but that’s about the extent of his defensive skills. Playing him in the field is a non-option for a contending team. But like I said, that’s just a small problem. There’s a much bigger one.
As great as Chato’s minor league and winter ball performance has been, and he has really been superb, his plate discipline numbers are a major cause for concern. In his 1,096 plate appearances since signing with the Yankees, Vazquez has struck out 314 times and unintentionally walked just 47 times. That’s a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 4.3% walk rate. The only big leaguer with a 25%+ strikeout rate and a sub-5% walk rate in single season over the last three years was Miguel Olivo (27.6 K% and 3.6 BB%) in 2011, who has the advantage of being a pretty good defensive catcher. JoVa put up those rates in the minors as a defensively challenged first baseman approaching his 30th birthday (he’ll be 30 in March).
The strikeout and walk rates indicate some kind of problem, but we don’t know exactly what it is from here. It could be breaking balls, inside fastballs, first pitch changeups, who knows. Whatever the problem is, it’s resulted in extreme strikeout issues and plate indiscipline. For what it’s worth, ZiPS projects a .235/.275/.449 batting line with 23 homers, 20 walks, and 138 strikeouts given 400+ at-bats next season while CAIRO v0.2 pegs him for a .231/.281/.439 line with 28 homers, 33 walks, and 177 strikeouts in 500+ at-bats. Remember, projections are not predictions, just a reasonable estimate of talent level.
In a recent ESPN Insider-only piece, Kevin Goldstein looked at the concept of Quad-A players like Vazquez, the guys that are too good for Triple-A but not good enough for MLB. He notes that one of the main reasons why these guys are limited is because of an inability to make adjustments, especially when advanced scouts start picking the guy’s game apart. Some players shed the label like Nelson Cruz did, but most aren’t so lucky. Vazquez has very real power, but given that his strikeout rate has gotten worse every year since signing with the Yankees, we have reason to believe he can’t make those necessary adjustments and contribute to the big league team.
Barring something unexpected, we’ll see Chato in Spring Training one way or another. He might be a replacement in the second half of games like last year, or he might be competing for the team’s DH job. Hey, maybe there’s value in having a guy who will sabotage a first pitch fastball hidden in a lineup of patient hitters, but I have a hard time buying that argument. Vazquez has significant flaws both at the plate and in the field, and on top of that he’s not a great fit as a right-handed hitter, assuming they’re looking for someone to split time with Andruw Jones. There’s always a chance something will click and JoVa will figure it out, but I’m not counting on it and neither should the Yankees.
The Long-Term Catching Situation
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(Al Bello/Getty)
As I said on Saturday morning, the trade of Jesus Montero has some far-reaching implications for the Yankees organization. First and foremost they’ll miss his offense, but he also factored into the team’s long-term catching situation. Granted, very few people not employed by the Yankees actually think he can stick behind the plate long-term, but his name had to be included any time we discussed the team’s future behind the plate. That has changed, obviously.
Thankfully, the catcher position is not an immediate concern. Russell Martin will be back as an arbitration-eligible player in 2012, projected to earn $6.7M by MLBTR’s system before becoming a free agent after the season. He was exactly league average on offense during his first season in pinstripes (.325 wOBA and 100 wRC+), which means he was better than the average AL catcher (.307 wOBA and 91 wRC+). Defensive metrics are imperfect (especially for backstops), but he definitely helped prevent runs with his glovework. Martin will be the regular catcher in 2012, there was little doubt about that even before the trade.
I have to think Austin Romine was pretty thrilled to find out that Montero had been traded, allowing him to finally step out of his shadow and solidify his position as the team’s catcher of the future, at least in theory. Even though he made his big league debut in September, Romine needs to get a couple hundred at-bats in Triple-A, which he should have received in 2011 but didn’t because of Montero. He’ll get those at-bats this summer while Frankie Cervelli backs up Martin, then hopefully force his way into the 2013 picture.
Further down the minor league ladder is J.R. Murphy, who made enough progress behind the plate in 2011 that staying at catcher long-term is no longer a pipe dream. Gary Sanchez is right behind him, but the reports on his defense have been pretty rough over the last year. Both guys can hit, more than Romine can, but they’re also several levels away from the big leagues and we all know how much can wrong when you’re talking about kids in Single-A. Both are a footnote in the team’s long-term plans at the moment, so it’s basically up to Romine to provide help behind the plate in the next few seasons. The only problem is that catching prospects tend to develop late, so his timetable might not line up perfectly with the team’s needs.
Because of the large learning curve — a new pitching staff and new hitters to study — and the physical wear-and-tear associated with the position, it takes catchers longer to adjust to big league life than any other type of position player. The Buster Posey and Joe Mauer types that come up and provide immediate impact are the exception while Matt Wieters-like growing pains are the rule. Having a veteran caddy to ease the transition is certainly preferable to just rolling the dice and hoping for the best with the kid, especially when you’re trying to contend. That veteran caddy for Romine could very well be Martin, who has expressed an interest in remaining with the Yankees beyond 2012.
“If you are asking me if I want to be here, yes, but they are in a nice position with the quality of kids they have,” said Martin to George King back in September. Brian Cashman has praised his backstop since signing him last December, but also said a long-term contract “hasn’t been discussed” as of a month ago. For what it’s worth, Martin’s agent did acknowledged that his client would consider a multi-year pact with the Yankees, and Moshe explored the merits of a such a deal earlier this offseason. In a perfect world, he’d take nothing more than two or three-year contract and help gradually usher in the Romine era, like Joe Girardi helped usher in the Jorge Posada era a generation ago.
The Yankees have a long tradition of great hitting catchers, but Montero won’t be around to carry the torch. Murphy and Sanchez might be able to fill that role down the road, but we’re several years away from that. Romine won’t have that kind of offensive impact, but he has the tools to be a sound defensive backstop while being a non-zero with the stick in the future. That’s a valuable player — especially at or near the league minimum — but the Yankees are going to have to make sure he’s given adequate support. Martin on a medium-term contract extension makes some sense, but if he’s not open to it, it would behoove the team to find a veteran backstop to ease their young catcher into the lineup.
Posada’s Place In Yankees History
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(Photo via The Wall Street Journal)
With Jorge Posada reportedly set to hang up his spikes, we can sit back and reflect on his career. He played 15 full seasons with the Yankees and parts of two more early on, contributing to four World Championships and tagging along for a fifth (that actually came first). He went to five All-Star Games, won five Silver Slugger Awards, and owns a pair of top six finishes in the MVP voting (2003 and 2007). His 2000 season (.287/.417/.527 with 28 homers and 107 walks) should have garnered MVP votes as well, but alas it did not.
Posada was never the focal point of the Yankees’ offense but he was always a steady contributor behind the thunder in the middle of the order. Playing that many years as a switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate means that Jorge is among the team’s all-time leaders in basically every offensive category, and that’s what we’re going to recap today. His place in Yankees history.
Playing Time (Games, PA, AB)
Posada is eighth on the franchise’s all-time games played list, donning the pinstripes for 1,829 contests. Two of his former teammates (Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams) rank ahead of him, as do a bunch of Hall of Famers (Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Yogi Berra, Babe Ruth) and Roy White. He started 1,450 of those games behind the plate, or 79.3%. Posada has the 12th most plate appearances (7,150) and 14th most at-bats (6,092) in Yankees history.
Batting Line (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS+)
A career .273/.374/.474 hitter, Posada was never really the type to hit for average, topping .280 in a single season just four times (2000, 2003, 2007, 2009). As a result, he ranks just 36th on the franchise’s all-time batting average list (min. 3,000 PA). However, Jorge had a knack for reaching base on something other than a hit (more on that later), so he places 17th on the team’s all-time OBP list. His SLG is 21st in team history and his ISO (.201) is 13th. In terms of offense relative to era, Posada’s 121 OPS+ is the 21st best in franchise history. That lumps him in with guys like Hideki Matsui (123), White (121), and Hall of Famer Joe Gordon (120).
Base Knocks (Hits, doubles, homers)
Jorge finished his career with 1,664 career hits, the 14th most in team history. You can probably guess most of the guys ahead of him on the list, but he’s right behind Tony Lazzeri (1,784) and Willie Randolph (1,731). His 379 doubles are seventh most in team history while his 275 homers are eighth most. Only Ruth, Mantle, Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi, Bernie, and Alex Rodriguez are ahead of him on the dingers list. If you must know, Jorge is tied for 94th in franchise history with a whopping ten triples.
(REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine)
On-Base Skills (BB, IBB, HBP)
Only six Yankees have drawn more walks that the 936 Posada drew during his career: Ruth, Mantle, Gehrig, Bernie, Randolph, and Jeter. Of those 936 walks, 78 were intentional, or one more than teh feared Jim Rice in 1,908 fewer plate appearances. Anyway, only Don Mattingly, Mantle, and Bernie were intentionally walked more times than Jorge in Yankees history. By getting plunked with 74 pitches, Posada is fifth on the team’s all-time hit-by-pitch list behind Jeter, Frankie Crosetti, Jason Giambi, and A-Rod. Surprisingly, only one of those 74 came at the hands of Pedro Martinez. Jeremy Guthrie and Chan Ho Park (twice each) are the only pitchers to get him more than once.
Run Production (Runs scored, RBI, sac flies)
When you’ve reached base more times than all but eleven players in franchise history, you’re bound to score a lot of runs. Posada is 17th on the franchise’s runs scored list with exactly 900. That’s pretty good since the vast majority of his career plate appearances (83.8%) have come as the fifth, sixth, or seventh place hitter and not higher up in the order. Most of us understand the flaws with RBI, but like pitcher wins they do have some value over time since they show durability and general offensive competence. Jorge is 11th in Yankees history with 1,065 rib eye steaks. A number of those runs came on his 47 sac flies, a total that is tied with Mantle and Bobby Murcer for the tenth most in team history.
Sabermetric Stats (wOBA, WPA, bWAR, fWAR)
Although he ranks 21st in OPS, Posada is a little further down the line in wOBA, 24th in team history at .366. He’s sandwiched between Matsui (.367) and Mattingly (.361), so some pretty good company. Posada is 17th in win probability added at +12.714, and 0.93 of that came in one game. In terms of wins above replacement, he’s either the 11th or 12th best player in team history using Baseball-Reference (+44.9) or FanGraphs (+47.6), respectively. Yogi and Bill Dickey are the only backstops ahead of him on either list. I don’t know where exactly he ranks as far as great Yankees go, but precise placement is trivial. Jorge is an all-time great Yankee, and you didn’t need any of these silly lists to tell you that.
Just how overpaid is Alex Rodriguez?
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(Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty)
In the aftermath of last month’s Albert Pujols deal, one couldn’t help but constantly see Alex Rodriguez‘s name brought up in connection with the contract, as the dollar amount of Pujols’ contract was the second-highest in history after Alex’s second 10-year pact. Several WAR-based analyses were immediately conducted in an attempt to determine just how good Pujols would have to be justify the length and size of the deal, which led me to wonder just how much A-Rod has actually been worth over the duration of his mega-deals, and what he could be worth over the remainder of the six years he still has on his current Yankee contract.
The Angels will be heartened to know that Alex lived up to his contract and then some during its first three years, providing $72.3 million of value to Texas while being paid $66 million. Unfortunately for the Rangers, despite all of that value the remainder of the roster was largely ineffective, as the team finished in last place in the AL West in each of those three seasons.
Determined to rid themselves of Alex’s albatross of a contract, the Rangers first tried to trade A-Rod to the Red Sox in December 2003, only to have the MLBPA step in and put the kibosh on the deal as Alex was willing to take a pay cut to get the deal done. Two months later they found a match with the Yankees, who flipped strikeout-prone Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias for a 28-year-old A-Rod and $67 million of the $186 million remaining on Alex’s deal.
From 2004-2007, the Yankees paid Alex approximately $16 million a year, or $64 million, and got $107.9 million of value out of him, good for a $43.9 million surplus. Even when you factor in the portion of his salary that Texas paid Alex still proved to be worth the money through the first seven years of his deal, putting up $180.2 million in value against $168 million in salary.
Of course, rather then rest on the fact that they nearly doubled the value of their investment during four of the best years of his (or anyone’s) career, the Yankees (not Brian Cashman) re-signed Alex after he famously opted out during the 2007 World Series to another 10-year deal that would keep him in pinstripes through his Age 42 season.
While I am an unabashed A-Rod fan, and am happy he’s still on the team not to mention the fact that they probably don’t win the 2009 World Series without him, it’d be an understatement to say his second deal hasn’t worked out nearly as neatly for the Yankees as his first contract. Through the first four years of the new deal, Alex has been paid $126 million and been worth “only” $81.8 million. It seems weird to decry a player who’s averaged more than $20 million in value during his last four seasons, and we can thank Hank Steinbrenner for that. The good news is that Alex’s $44.2 million deficit is a wash due to the $43.9 million in surplus value the Yankees got out of him during the first four years. Almost.
The bad news is that Alex is still under contract for six more seasons, and if history has taught us anything it’s that time is most unkind to aging ballplayers. On the one hand, one could argue that Alex is a special case, and his preternatural ability to be amazing at baseball will withstand the test of time. Baseball-Reference’s Similarity Scores would seem to support this idea, as Alex’s top comps through Age 35 are Hank Aaron (hit .298/.385/.574 in his Age 36 season), Mel Ott (.308/.411/.499), Frank Robinson (.251/.353/.442) and Willie Mays (.263/.334/.453). That’s some good company, although you’d hope Alex’s Age 36 season is closer to the former two than the latter two.
On the other hand, if Alex the ballplayer does indeed age like everyone else, and we apply a fairly standard -0.5 WAR annual penalty to his performances going forward and assume a continued valuation of roughly $4.5 million per win on the open market (which could of course fluctuate), he would finish out the final six years of his contract providing $66.3 million in value while being paid $149 million. This would give us a total of $148.1 million of value against $275 million in salary over 10 years, or a loss of $126.9 million.
If you want to factor in the $43.9M surplus from the first contract (which includes the $38M from the Rangers), then ultimately one could say the Yankees may end up having overpaid A-Rod by $83 million for his services after all is said and done, but of course that’s but one scenario.
An even grimmer one than I’ve presented here comes courtesy of The Hardball Times’ Oliver projection system. Now this is far from an apples-to-apples comparison, as THT seems to use its own proprietary WAR calculation (for example, they have 2011 A-Rod at 2.3 WAR, while B-Ref has 2.7), but it has Alex actually having a slightly better overall year in 2012 at 2.5 WAR before a steep decline to 1.8 in 2013, followed by 1.1, 0.3, -0.5 and then -1.2 in the last year of his deal. That would give Alex a total value of 4 WAR (or roughly $18 million) over the final six seasons of his deal, which, yikes.
Now the Oliver forecast appears to be pretty extreme — while I think we can expect Alex’s skills to deteriorate to a certain degree, I don’t know about to the point of providing negative value — although it should also serve as something of a cautionary tale. We saw firsthand how rapidly a once-robust offensive performer can decline with Jorge Posada this past year alone, and though Posada was never consistently an A-Rod-caliber hitter, he did post several seasons that wouldn’t look out of place on the back of Alex’s baseball card. That said, I still feel confident that Alex will at least outperform his seemingly worst case scenario Oliver projections, and I also think he can turn in more than 14.7 WAR over the next six seasons after all is said and done.
The 40-Man Roster Chopping Block
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Whelan's on the block. (Getty)
The Yankees have a very full 40-man roster at the moment, so every player they acquire from here on out will cost another player his 40-man spot. Andruw Jones will need a spot whenever his new one-year deal becomes official, and Hiroyuki Nakajima will as well if he signs a contract before Friday’s deadline. Any trade for a starting pitcher will likely involve a 40-man roster player going the other way, but a free agent like Edwin Jackson means another 40-man spot will have to be cleared.
With Jones back, it seems likely that Justin Maxwell has moved to the front of the roster casualty line. He’s out of minors league options (meaning he’d have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors) and a right-handed hitting outfielder, which is the job Andruw will fill. Maxwell has some potential, but not enough to win the numbers game. Nakajima could take Ramiro Pena‘s 40-man spot, though Pena has one minor league option left and is the default emergency infielder. Perhaps Nakajima’s ability to play the middle infield plus Brandon Laird‘s ability to play third plus Jayson Nix’s presence on a minor league contract makes Ramiro more expendable.
Along with Maxwell and possibly Pena, Kevin Whelan appears to be the most vulnerable. He certainly is among pitchers, anyway. The soon-to-be 28-year-old right-hander made his big league debut last season after being acquired in the Gary Sheffield trade, walking five of the ten batters he faced in one and two-thirds jittery innings. Control (and injury) has always been his problem, as the 2011 season was his first with a sub-5.5 BB/9 and a sub-14.0 BB% since 2006 (2.4 BB/9 and 6.8 BB%). He does miss bats through (career 11.1 K/9 and 29.7 K%), and with two minor league options left, he’s a not terrible piece of bullpen depth. George Kontos, Hector Noesi, David Phelps, and D.J. Mitchell are also on the 40-man and serve the same purpose though, and at some point something is going to have to give.
This year’s two Rule 5 Draft picks — Brad Meyers and Cesar Cabral — are also candidates to get cut if space is needed, though I hope not. Those two intrigue me more than any of the Yankees other recent Rule 5 picks, and I’d selfishly like to get a look at them in Spring Training. Chris Dickerson is out of options like Maxwell, and I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which he’d make the team, barring a Spring Training injury. I suspect he’ll be kept around in camp for that very reason, then traded for a spare fringe prospect in late-March if the Yankees make it through the month with a healthy outfield. With two minor league options and upside left, Melky Mesa figures to be safe.
There’s also Pedro Feliciano, who is extremely unlikely to pitch in 2012 after having shoulder surgery in September. As far as I know, there is no rule preventing teams from releasing an injured player to free up 40-man space, but it rarely happens. I’m guessing it’s a courtesy to veteran players (the Yankees did release the injured Amaury Sanit last year), since he can be placed on the 60-day DL during the season to free up a spot while retaining all the 40-man benefits, like health care for his family. Feliciano figures to be 60-day DL’d as soon as possible/when necessary, maybe for a non-roster guy like Hideki Okajima.
Maxwell, Pena, and Whelan will likely be the first three to get the 40-man roster axe, but not necessarily in that order. That should be plenty of wiggle room until Spring Training, when Dickerson and Feliciano start to come into play. The Yankees don’t have very much flexibility with their 40-man because of all the young players they’re carrying — I count 16 with less than a year of service time, eight with zero MLB experience on the 40-man — which is a double-edged sword. It’s nice to have a good farm system, but at some point all these players have to go somewhere.
The Justin Maxwell Option
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The Yankees have a very balanced outfield situation, at least in terms of the 40-man roster. Their big league outfield is set with Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, and Brett Gardner, a three-man unit that’s been the best in the AL and arguably the best in baseball over the last two seasons. Zoilo Almonte and Melky Mesa are both on the 40-man but are still a ways off from being big league options. Then there’s Chris Dickerson and Justin Maxwell, the former of whom we saw quite a bit of last season. The latter is still very much an unknown.
Maxwell, 28, was having a dynamite season with Triple-A Scranton this past summer (.418 wOBA and 16 homers in 48 games) before he tore his labrum robbing a homer at the wall. He had surgery and his season was over before the calendar flipped to June, though he picked up some service time late in September when the Yankees called him up and immediately placed on the 60-day DL to free up a 40-man spot for Jesus Montero. When they needed to clear more 40-man space this offseason, they opted to release Greg Golson and designate Colin Curtis for assignment rather than dump Maxwell. That’s a pretty good sign that they think he has some value.
Chad Jennings spoke to VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman yesterday, who indicated that Maxwell is expected to be healthy next season and has a chance to contribute off the bench. “He’s got some tools, and he’s a high-caliber individual who works,” said Newman, who isn’t kidding about the tools part. When Baseball America ranked Maxwell as the Nationals eighth best prospect prior to the 2010 season (the last time he was prospect eligible), this was part of their scouting report (subs. req’d) …
A physical specimen with plus athleticism, Maxwell has above-average power potential and a patient offensive approach. Nats hitting coach Rick Eckstein and first-base coach Marquis Grissom got the idea to lower his hands to chest level after watching video of other long-levered sluggers like Willie Stargell and Dave Winfield, and the adjustment fueled Maxwell’s September surge by getting him in a stronger position to drive the ball more consistently. He’s a plus runner who stole 41 bases in 50 tries last season. He’s also an above-average defender in center field with excellent range and instincts.
As wonderful as that sounds, Maxwell’s weakness has always been his inability to make consistent, quality contact. He’s drawn walks (14.6%), hit for solid power (.178 ISO), and been a threat on the bases (11-for-13 in stolen base attempts) in his 260 big league plate appearances, but he’s hit just .201 and has struck out 31.9% of the time. In 924 career Triple-A plate appearances, he owns a 12.4% walk rate (very good), a .192 ISO (also very good), gone 62-for-79 in stolen base attempts (78.5% success rate, pretty good), a .259 batting average (decent at best), and a 30.6% strikeout rate (very bad). The guy does everything but get the bat on the ball with regularity.
If the Yankees truly feel that Maxwell can help the team off the bench, his bench chance to do so would be as a defensive replacement and a platoon bat against lefties. He has shown a sizable platoon split in his limited big league time, and also demolished lefties in Triple-A this past season with a similar split throughout his minor league career. In a perfect world, the Yankees would just send Maxwell back to Triple-A this season with an eye towards the second half or 2013, but he’s out of minor league options. They can’t send him to the minors without first passing him through waivers, and that creates a bit of a roster problem.
When it comes to next year’s fourth outfielder, I think Plan A, B, and C should be Andruw Jones. He did everything the Yankees could have possibly asked him to do in 2011 — hit for power, draw walks, hit lefties, play average defense, contribute in the clubhouse — which was nothing more than a repeat of his 2010 season with the White Sox. If he wants to come back, and it sounds like he does, then they should welcome him back with open arms. However, if the Yankees drag their feet and Jones ends up elsewhere, letting Maxwell compete with a non-roster invite or two (Scott Hairston? Conor Jackson?) for the job is a pretty decent backup plan. He has some interesting tools, so they might as well see what he can do if Andruw doesn’t come back.
Just 6 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
