Archive for Players
Tempering expectations for David Adams
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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
Chris Nelson‘s brief tenure in pinstripes has come to a rather unceremonious end. Kevin Youkilis and Alex Rodriguez continue their respective paths to recovery. All of this adds up to a golden opportunity for rookie third baseman David Adams to showcase his skills for fans and scouts alike.
Adams, who was drafted in the third round by the Yankees back in 2008, has had some positive moments during his time in the minors. In 2012 he hit .306/.385/.450 (.377 wOBA, 133 wRC+) over 383 plate appearances with the Yankees AA affiliate after missing substantial time during the couple years prior. Up until a few nights ago when he got the call from the Yankees, he was hitting a fairly gaudy .316/.407/.490 (.407 wOBA, 153 wRC+) over 113 plate appearances in AAA. What’s more, the kid managed to get a hit during his big league debut and doubled in a run in his second game. Unfortunately, as I alluded too in Thursday’s RAB Live Chat and in the post’s title, my expectations for Adams are fairly tempered. Here’s why I think yours should be too.
1. It’s really hard to succeed in the Major Leagues in general. It’s really, really hard to sustain success once you do succeed. It’s especially hard for a young (and in this case, non-elite) prospect to join a MLB franchise and immediately have an impact with sustained success — especially when said player knows he’s probably a stopgap (though with Youk and A-Rod, the timetable may prove more substantial). This first point is kind of obvious, but I feel as though it’s still a point we fail to remember all too often regardless of the player’s pedigree.
2. Offensively, Adams displayed an advanced approach at the plate with good gap power during his time in the minors. He won’t be facing minor league pitchers anymore though. He’ll be facing experienced arms, and he’ll have to make the necessary adjustments as his weaknesses get exposed. This is not to say he can’t or won’t have an effective bat, just that we shouldn’t be overly surprised if his production deflates. One need only remember Jesus Montero for an example of an offensively potent minor leaguer who has been unable to adjust. Small mechanical flaws become big points of vulnerability. It happens, and it happens more often than not.
3. Adams was recruited as an above-average second baseman defensively. The ankle injuries have robbed him of his mobility, so much so the team moved him to third (although that may have also been partially influenced by A-Rod’s injury), where’s he’s also viewed as defensively mediocre if not substandard. If Adams struggles at the plate, his defense will be that much more important, and unfortunately for him, that much more scrutinized. The Yankees cannot afford to have a black hole in the line up — they’ll need Adams to prove himself capable at least in this department.
Note by Mike: I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Adams’ defense so far. He’s no Adrian Beltre, but he’s been rock solid. At this point he’s probably the best defensive third baseman in the organization.
4. The injuries scare the crap out of me, quite frankly. Basically, since joining the organization, Adams has had a hell of a time staying on the field. Aside from showing dubious durability, he’s missed valuable developmental time — so much so the Yankees released him altogether to make room on the roster for Vernon Wells. In fact, at one point, he was playing four games in a row with a day off on the fifth during his time in the minors. The daily grind won’t get any easier with the Yankees. If he’s going to obtain a contract with a Major League team, he’s going to need prove himself capable of staying on the field — a trait often underappreciated.
Now, please don’t get me wrong. I’m not trying to come across as completely bearish on Adams. As I noted above, he does have a solid approach at the plate, and the team will give him every opportunity to succeed. Plus he seems like a fun player to root for. Frankly, I hope he proves me dead wrong and thrives because that’d be awesome; it’d give the team options to consider on a lot of different levels. The point I’m trying to make here is that we shouldn’t endorse one of our home grown kids too heartily until he has some time to establish himself — honestly, the same should probably be said about all prospects in general.
When the Grandy-Man Returns
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(Scranton Times-Tribune)
The return of Curtis Granderson is imminent. The forearm has apparently healed well. His bat seems to be rounding into form (.412/.412/.588, 185 wRC+ during his time with AAA). This is great news. It also puts Joe Girardi in a bit of quandary in terms of lineups. He’ll have to figure out how to delegate playing time to Granderson, Brett Gardner, Vernon Wells, and Ichiro Suzuki. Although Ben Francisco is technically still in the mix at this juncture, I’d have to assume his days are numbered as a Yankee barring something unforeseen.
Brennan Boesch hasn’t been particularly effective through a limited number of opportunities thus far (.205/.244/.436, 77 wRC+), and he was sent down this afternoon in favor of another pitcher. That is not a surprise. He was used sparingly as a platoon option, which was fine. Exactly as it should be.
Here’s how Gardner, Wells, and Ichiro have fared so far:
|
Player |
PA |
HR |
BB% |
K% |
BABIP |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
|
| Gardner |
158 |
3 |
8.9% |
20.3% |
.314 |
.259 |
.329 |
.403 |
.321 |
98 |
| Wells |
143 |
9 |
7.0% |
13.3% |
.286 |
.295 |
.343 |
.530 |
.374 |
135 |
| Ichiro |
129 |
2 |
6.2% |
10.9% |
.282 |
.263 |
.307 |
.364 |
.286 |
74 |
I suspect Girardi is going to be forced into keeping Wells in the lineup, whether as an outfielder or DH, as long as his bat is above-average. This isn’t a bad thing by any means as long as he’s productive. Of the three outfielders listed above, he’s also the only who will really hit for any power.
As far as Gardner and Suzuki are concerned, I basically view them as the same guy. Neither are slouches defensively. Both are quick around the bases (though Ichiro may have the better base stealing instincts). Offensively, they both will look to get on base via the single (usually of the slap variety) the majority of the time. Ichiro will likely maintain the higher batting average, while Gardner will take a few more walks and allow a few more strike outs. One difference between the two, however, is that Ichiro has a much more noticeable split.
If I were the manager I would probably start Wells in left, have Gardner remain in center, and place Granderson in right (which would mitigate bad defensive routes). This would also place power bats in both OF corner slots while allowing Gardner to maximize his defensive value. Girardi could then substitute Ichiro into the game in the later innings as a defensive upgrade in right when necessary. I suppose the caveat here would be that the occasional platoon would still be utilized if specific matchups warranted it or the occasional off day was needed for a particular guy.
Should Girardi elect to keep Granderson in center, then I suppose I would shift Gardner to left where has has plenty of experience, and push Vernon to right. For what it’s worth, Granderson has been rehabbing at all three outfield positions apparently, so hopefully that’s a precursor to him playing a fair amount of games at the corners despite it being contrary to Girardi’s statements on the matter.
Austin Romine’s Big Chance
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(Presswire)
The Yankees have a knack for holding fake Spring Training competitions, and Austin Romine was on the outside looking in at this spring’s catching competition. Frankie Cervelli and Chris Stewart were going to open the year as the team’s catching duo while Romine headed to Triple-A, which was for the best given his back trouble these last two seasons. He missed a lot of development time and was in need of regular at-bats.
A little less than four weeks into the season, the 24-year-old Romine is with the big league team thanks to Cervelli’s fractured hand. He started his first game last night after two on the bench, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a hit-by-pitch at the plate while struggling to get on the same page as Andy Pettitte. There were an awful lot of shake-offs and mound conferences, which is not the norm with Pettitte. He’s very much a “get it and throw it” guy.
“I don’t want to throw too much at him too quickly,” said Joe Girardi to Chad Jennings over the weekend when asked about Romine and the pitching staff. “I want him to get familiar with the guys that are here. He has a sense of who they are. He’s had a chance to catch all of them at some point in Spring Training, whether it was a side or a game in the minor leagues, but you want him to be familiar with the guys.”
Girardi previously indicated he will figure out the catching workload as they go in the wake of Cervelli’s injury, which is what he said about Cervelli and Stewart prior to Opening Day. Frankie came out of the gate hitting well and had unofficially taken over as the starting backstop less than two weeks into the season. Romine has the same opportunity staring him in the face — if he hits, Girardi has shown he will pencil him into the lineup on a near-everyday basis.
“Anytime you get any type of (playing time), you have to show them what you can do,” said Romine to Jennings after being called up. “I’m going to take whatever time I do have here and I’m going to show them that I can do it. I can handle it back there, I can handle pitching staff and I can swing it at the plate.”
Romine managed a .271/.341/.377 (~101 wRC+) batting line in 508 minor league plate appearances from 2011-2012, and Baseball America wrote “scouts used to project him to hit 15-20 homers annually due to his raw power but didn’t see the same snap in his bat in 2012″ in their 2013 Prospect Handbook. Tomine told Mark Feinsand he ditched his leg kick and worked on shortening his stride with Triple-A hitting coach Butch Wynegar this month, which may have contributed to his .333/.391/.405 (129 wRC+) line before the call-up. It was only 46 plate appearances though, so I wouldn’t get too excited.
Much like Cervelli before the injury, Romine has a golden opportunity to take the catching job and run with it. There’s an obvious need behind the plate both this year and over the next several years, assuming the team is putting all of its eggs in the Gary Sanchez basket. Cervelli will be out a minimum of six weeks, and Romine is going to need to massively outplay Stewart during that time if he plans on sticking around the rest of the year and put himself in the running for the long-ish tern catching job. This opportunity probably came a few months too soon, but he’ll have to make the best of it.
Two weeks in, Cervelli seizes the starting catching job
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(Elsa/Getty)
After the Yankees allowed Russell Martin to leave as a free agent this winter, they made it clear they would go with internal options behind the plate. The free agent and trade markets didn’t offer a ton of catching solutions anyway, but going with some combination of Chris Stewart, Frankie Cervelli, and Austin Romine behind the plate was a very sketchy proposition. It became obvious Romine would open the season in Triple-A as Spring Training progressed while the other two shared catching duties in the Bronx.
“For the first month it will be somewhat of a process figuring out how you are going to do it,” said Joe Girardi to George King on Opening Day when asked about how he would handle his catching situation. “It’s something I thought about the last three or four days and talked to my coaches about it. Right now it’s going to be a fairly even split and go from there.”
That “fairly even split” has already disappeared two weeks into the regular season. The 27-year-old Cervelli has started nine of the team’s eleven games so far, including all three against the division rival Orioles this weekend. That includes a day game after a night game on Saturday. Stewart, 31, was scheduled to start one of the postponed games against the Indians last week, but the Yankees used the rainout as an opportunity to essentially skip his spot and continue to keep him on the bench.
Of course, the reason Cervelli has seized the starting catching job so early in the season is his bat. He’s mashed in those nine starts, going 9-for-25 (.360) with seven walks (.500 OBP) and one strikeout (!) while averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance. It’s tough to take that kind of production out of the lineup given how poorly the bottom of the batting order has performed in general — the seven through nine spots combined for a weak .261/.314/.378 line heading into yesterday’s game, and that’s including Frankie.
Cervelli (and Stewart for that matter) hasn’t really stood out defensively in the early going, but it has only been nine games. He hasn’t had to use his much-improved throwing arm because opponents have only attempted one stolen base in his nine games — Cervelli threw out Prince Fielder of all people last week — though I guess that could be a reputation thing. Opponents know his throwing has improved and aren’t even bothering to attempt a stolen base, something like that. Who knows. Frankie has allowed three balls to get by him in 72 innings behind the plate, but all three are wild pitches.
“Right now I feel I can catch every day in the Major Leagues,’’ said Cervelli to King at the end of Spring Training. “It’s not in my mind, but I’ll let them decide. I have to talk with my actions and my game. That’s my dream, catch 150 games.’’
Well, catching 150 games isn’t going to happen no matter what Cervelli hits or however many would-be base-stealers he throws out. He’s not a true talent 185 wRC+ hitter and at some point his offense will return to Earth, but Frankie has already managed to play his way into a clearly defined clearly starting catcher role. That is exactly what the Yankees needed to see early in the season not just given all their injuries, but also for their future behind the plate. One year after being demoted to Triple-A, Cervelli has a golden opportunity to make himself a fixture behind the plate going forward, and he’s already starting to take advantage.
Old policy flies in the face of the new reality
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Don’t go, Cano (Elsa/Getty Images)
Perhaps the policy had been in place previously, but the first time I remember Brian Cashman mentioning it was during the spring of 2007. In camp that year the Yankees had two important players who were set to hit free agency following the season: Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera (plus A-Rod’s looming opt-out situation). Instead of talking contract with them before the season and therefore keeping them out of the free agent picture, the Yankees instead opted to wait, saying it was policy to not extend contracts before free agency.
At the time the policy was sensible enough. It allowed them to remain flexible. If a player got hurt before the end of a contract, they weren’t on the hook for any additional years and dollars. Once the players did hit free agency, the Yankees had a whole pool of players from which they could choose. At a time when many small and mid market teams let their best players hit free agency, the Yankees stood to take great advantage.
In the past six years the situation has changed quite a bit. Those small and mid market teams have bigger budgets now, thanks in part to the revenue sharing program. They’re using those dollars to lock up their best players to long-term deals. Here is a list of significant extensions in recent seasons. (Free agency dates in terms of, would be a free agent following the XXXX season; option years in parenthesis.)
| Player | Orig. FA | New FA |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 2013 | 2023 (24) |
| Felix Hernandez | 2014 | 2020 |
| Buster Posey | 2016 | 2021 (22) |
| Cole Hamels | 2012 | 2018 (19) |
| Justin Verlander | 2014 | 2019 (20) |
| David Wright | 2013 | 2020 |
| Matt Cain | 2013 | 2017 (18) |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 2013 | 2019 (20) |
| Adam Wainwright | 2013 | 2018 |
That just covers the $100-million-plus extensions. Adam Jones, Andre Ethier, Ian Kinsler, Yadier Molina, Starlin Castro, Miguel Montero, Andrew McCutchen, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, and Madison Bumgarner, among others, also got extensions that take them past their original free agency dates. Given the rash of recent extensions, the younger of that group could see further extensions before they reach that already delayed free agency date.
Another name will soon join the $100-million-plus club: Elvis Andrus. This morning Jon Heyman reported that the Rangers and Andrus were nearing an eight year extension worth $120 million, which will keep Andrus under contract for the next 10 years at $131 million total. This comes when the Rangers still have two years left on Andrus’s current contract and also have baseball’s No. 1 prospect Jurickson Profar waiting for a chance. There goes another player the Yankees can’t acquire via free agency.
The days of acquiring superstar talent via free agency seem like a distant past. This past off-season there was little superstar talent freely available. It was essentially Josh Hamilton, and he went to the Angels with all of his flaws. If you look at next year’s top free agents you’ll notice that one of them is already off the board, and the rest have plenty of downside. After Cano there are injury risks and older players, but generally there isn’t a superstar present. It’s Cano by his lonesome. The 2015 free agent list looks bleak as well. There’s Clayton Kershaw, but he appears to be nearing a mammoth extension. The only player that looks halfway useful for the Yanks is Asdrubal Cabrera, but even the Indians appear willing to spend money these days.
The old policy doesn’t work in the new world. Teams simply aren’t letting their best players reach the point of free agency. They’re offering security in exchange for some level of savings from full market price, and the players are jumping at the opportunities. When the Yankees let their own players hit free agency, they’re not longer creating flexible situations. They’re essentially driving up those players’ prices. Unless they have an in-house replacement, chances are they’re going to lose production in the deal if they don’t re-sign the player.
All of this, of course, goes back to Robinson Cano. The Yankees have apparently thrown out their policy and have made a significant offer to Cano, but apparently it’s not enough to get the deal done. With Scott Boras that’s expected, but then again Andrus is a Boras client. There remains a small chance the Yankees can work out something with Cano before November, but given his status as the league’s best second baseman, combined with possible interest from the newly rich Dodgers, it doesn’t seem like a strong possibility.
Hindsight suggests that the Yankees should have started working on an extension for Cano after the 2010 season. Unfortunately, that’s also when Cano hired Boras as his agent. Boras did come to the Yankees with the idea of ripping up Cano’s current contract and negotiating a new one, and at this point that appears to be an option the Yankees should have considered. They now face losing not only their best player, but their only star player — one who has no apparent successor. (As a superstar, not as a second baseman.)
Where will the Yankees be next year if they lose Cano? They’re then back to relying on Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez to be their superstars. Much as I like both of them and appreciate what they contributed to the 2009 World Series team, it has become apparent that their lineup-carrying days are over. The free agency market is bare. Teams aren’t willing to trade premium talent for prospects any longer. If the Yankees want to continue having a star in their everyday lineup, it will mean ponying up huge dollars, and probably nine or 10 years, for Cano.
Perhaps in a few years the situation will change and star players will either hit free agency or get dealt to a big market team that offers an extension. For the time being, the emphasis is on developing premium talent in the minor leagues. The Yankees are greatly disadvantaged here, given their annual draft position. But that’s a topic for a different post.
Eduardo Nunez’s Big Chance
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(Presswire)
We’ve known for months that Derek Jeter might not recover from his fractured left ankle surgery in time for Opening Day, but that all but came a reality this weekend when Brian Cashman acknowledged the Cap’n is very likely to open the season on the DL. The 38-year-old Jeter received a cortisone shot in the ankle last week and experienced soreness after getting just four at-bats in a minor league game a few days ago. He has to play a full nine innings at shortstop before being activated according to GM, so the target return date of April 6th seems optimistic.
“I know Derek extremely well,” said Cashman to Chad Jennings. “I’ve been with him a long, long time, and I can read his face. And his face today tells me the reality of this circumstance is starting to sink in; that this disabled list situation might be necessary … We have to get him to be able to play shortstop. DHing for us isn’t going to get him where we need to be.”
In Jeter’s place, the Yankees will use their beloved Eduardo Nunez as the everyday shortstop — “Nuney will play shortstop,” said manager Joe Girardi flatly — which is something they’ve had to do before. The 25-year-old hit .339/.381/.525 with two homers, four steals, four walks, and four strikeouts in 17 games and 65 plate appearances as the regular shortstop while Jeter was on the DL with a calf problem in the middle of 2011, a performance that was awesome at the time and in no way indicative of how he’ll play going forward.
For Nunez, this is pretty much the chance of a lifetime. Yes, Jeter will be coming back to claim shortstop at some point, but the Yankees have already made it clear they will use their captain at DH regularly just to get him off his feet following the surgery, especially against lefties. Nunez was expected to get those shortstop reps whenever Jeter served as the DH, but now he has a chance for regular and uninterrupted playing time. We overlook this stuff as outsiders, but players value the comfort of knowing when and where they’re going to play. Being a bench player is hard.
The Yankees have played Nunez nowhere but shortstop this spring — he’s gone 15-for-53 (.283) with no homers, five steals, six walks, six strikeouts, and three errors in Grapefruit League play — because they hope playing one set position will help improve his awful defense. They said it when they sent him down last year and they said it again when camp opened. The Yankees have worked to shorten Nunez’s arm action in an effort to make the routine throws a little more routine, but who knows how that will take. It’s a wait and see thing.
“We’ve been pleased with the way (Nunez has) went about his business,” said Girardi, never one to throw his players under the bus. “He’s worked very hard on his defense. He’s swung the bat well. He’s run the bases well. He provides a speed option that we really didn’t have last year, a whole lot. You get him and (Brett Gardner) in the lineup, and it could create some problems.”
Offensively, it could create some problems in a lot of ways. For one, Nunez ain’t Jeter and he won’t come close to the .316/.362/.429 (117 wRC+) batting line the Cap’n put up last year without a lot of luck. Heck, Nunez’s best year in the minors was his .322/.349/.433 (116 wRC+) showing with Double-A Trenton back in 2009. Even hobbled and coming off ankle surgery, going from Jeter to Nunez is a downgrade. No doubt about it.
What Nunez gives the Yankees is speed. Speed and the ability to put the ball in play. Nunez steals bases with a better-than-average success rate — 38-for-46 (82.6%) in the show and 59-for-74 (79.7%) since resurrecting his career in 2009 in the minors — and both his strikeout (10.4%) and contact rate (88.2%) have been far better than average in his relatively short big league career. If sure he’ll do a lot of first-to-thirding and stuff like that as well, which frankly the Yankees will need given their lack of power. Maybe he hits a few dingers, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Like it or not, Nunez is going to play shortstop for the Yankees come Opening Day. The smart money is on him spending a lot of time there during the regular season as well, basically since Jeter is unlikely to make it through the season without more nagging soreness and inflammation. This is it right here, this is Nunez’s big chance not only to show he can move beyond his defensive issues and prove he belongs in the big leagues, but that he can be a part of the Yankees going forward. Someone’s going to have to replace Jeter one day and this is Eduardo’s chance to get a head-start over everyone else.
2013 Season Preview: Mariano Rivera
Posted by: | CommentsOur season preview series wraps up this week with a look at the bullpen, the bench, and miscellaneous leftovers. Opening Day is one week from today.
(J. Meric/Getty)
At this time last year, we all had a sneaking suspicion Mariano Rivera was about the begin the final season of his Hall of Fame career. He played coy all through Spring Training and never did announce his true intentions before a fluke knee injury ended his season in early-May. It wasn’t until this winter we learned he likely would have retired had he gotten healthy in time for postseason, and it wasn’t until a few weeks ago we learned he was definitely planning to retire following the 2012 campaign before the knee injury changed things.
We found that out 16 days ago, when Rivera held a press conference to officially announce his intention to retire after the upcoming 2013 season. “It’s official now. After this year I will be retired … I have to give everything and the tank is almost empty. The little gas that I have left is everything for this year. After this year I am empty,” said the closer, when he made it pretty clear he would not be changing his mind and returning for 2014. This is it, the Summer of Mo.
* * *
Last summer, the Yankees overcame the loss of Rivera thanks to Rafael Soriano, who stepped in and went 42-for-46 in save chances as the fill-in closer. His 2.26 ERA (3.31 FIP) with 57 strikeouts and 16 walks in 57 appearances and 55.2 innings weren’t just adequate, he was arguably the best closer in the league. That said, Soriano is no Rivera. Mo hasn’t posted a FIP that high since 1998 or a K/BB that low (3.56) since 2004. By bWAR (2.6) and fWAR (1.2), Soriano just had the 13th and 16th best seasons of Rivera’s career, respectively. He’s just on another level.
The safety net is gone this season, at least in theory. David Aardsma has closed in the past and David Robertson could probably do the job without a problem, but neither is as accomplished as Soriano. That makes the now 43-year-old Rivera that much more important, which is a little scary because he is coming off the major knee injury. It wasn’t until a week or two into camp that he first felt 100%, but any lingering effects from the knee haven’t shown up in his Grapefruit League performance: no runs with seven strikeouts and one walk in five innings.
As far as his expected performance … does anyone expect anything other than vintage Mo? The rational part of my brain says a 43-year-old coming off a major injury and what amounts to an 11-month layoff should see his performance suffer, or at least need a few weeks to shake off the rust. Every other part of me expects those same cutters on the corners. Seriously, look at Rivera’s called pitch strike zone over the last three years (courtesy of Texas Leaguers)…
That’s three years worth of called balls and strikes. Look at how many pitches are on the corners compared to how many are over the middle of the plate. It’s ridiculous. He’s not human. He’s a robot. A strike-throwing cutter machine.
I honestly don’t know what Rivera will do this summer. He’s earned every benefit of the doubt despite the knee injury — remember, this is a guy who had shoulder surgery in October 2008 and pitched to a 1.76 ERA (2.89 FIP) in 66.1 innings in 2009 — and if he struggles, then he struggles. They’ll deal with it when the time comes. I expect Mo to have his typical one bad week in April and one bad week in August, and otherwise dominate the league like few others.
* * *
The Summer of Mo won’t just be about on-field performance, though. Rivera is expected to enjoy a Chipper Jones-esque farewell tour, receiving gifts and recognition from other clubs as he plays his final series in other AL cities. Despite all the great players to come through the Bronx in recent years, the farewell tour will be like nothing we’ve seen before. As bittersweet as the impending retirement is, it will be fun to watch Rivera get celebrated time and time again this summer.
This is the beginning of the end of an era for the Yankees. We’re never going to see a player like Mariano again, someone who is so brutally effective on the field while carrying himself with such class and dignity off it. It’s lazy and cliche, but Rivera truly is someone we’ll all sit around and tell the grandkids about when the time comes. He’s an all-time great and an icon as a person, a player, and a Yankee. It’s been a privilege and on honor to watch him these last 18 years.
2013 Season Preview: The Number Fives
Posted by: | CommentsOur season preview series continues this week with the starting rotation, though the format will change just slightly. Since there’s no clear starter/backup/depth lineage when it comes to starting pitchers, we’ll instead look at each type of pitcher — ace, number two, back-end, etc. — at different levels.
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Fifth starters are usually among the most discussed members of pitching staff because they tend to stink and we’re always talking about replacing them. A lot of Backup Quarterback Syndrome goes around as well — the guy in Triple-A can’t possible be any worse, right? Well, yeah. He can. Given how much the Yankees will rely on their pitching staff to keep them in the race this summer, they’ll need their fifth starter(s) to pitch like someone far better than typical back-end cannon fodder.
The Candidates
For the first time in a while, the Yankees have two legitimate fifth starter candidates. I’m not talking about guys who we think could be fifth starters, I mean guys who have actually pitched in the big leagues and have some kind of track record. Pretty much every team has some mid-20s college draftee in Triple-A who fans think could step right into the rotation and the Yankees are no different. Big league experience is a separator for New York this summer.
The more senior of the two fifth starter candidates is 26-year-old Ivan Nova, who followed up his strong rookie season (3.70 ERA and 4.01 FIP in 165.1 innings) with a nightmare sophomore campaign (5.02 ERA and 4.60 FIP in 170.1 innings) last summer. He led baseball in extra-base hits allowed (87) and was second among qualified starters in opponent’s ISO (.223) and OPS+ (130). Despite very promising improvements in the strikeout (8.08 K/9 and 20.5 K%) and walk (2.96 BB/9 and 7.5 BB%) rate departments, Nova’s performance suffered because every one of his mistakes were punished. His lack of deception led to pretty much every hittable pitch being hit and hit hard.
In an effort to correct that problem, Nova and pitching coach Larry Rothschild have worked on a new, shorter arm action this spring. Mariano Rivera has also been in Nova’s ear and making sure he knows he has work hard to remain in the show. The right-hander has pitched well in camp — five runs with nine strikeouts and two walks in 14 innings across four starts — but we all know that doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. It is certainly better than getting pounded of course, especially since Ivan’s rough spring last year (8.06 ERA in 22.1 innings) was a sign of things to come.
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
The less experience of the two fifth starter candidates is 26-year-old David Phelps, who put up a solid 3.34 ERA and 4.32 FIP in 99.2 innings as a swingman last summer. He pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 22 relief appearances and a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts, but it’s worth noting he always seemed to be on a pitch count as a starter because he’d just been yanked out of the bullpen. Phelps posted strong strikeout (8.67 K/9 and 23.2 K%) and walk (3.43 BB/9 and 9.2 BB%) rates, but was a little fly ball (42.9% grounders) and homer (1.26 HR/9 and 13.6% HR/FB). Given the constant back-and-forth between the bullpen and rotation and the fact that he was a rookie pitcher in a small park in the AL East, there’s no doubt Phelps impressed last year.
The right-hander showed up to camp early and has been ahead of his fellow pitchers — and opposing hitters — pretty much all spring. Prior to last night’s shellacking he’d allowed five runs with a dozen strikeouts and four walks in 19 innings this spring, a performance that was basically right in line with Nova’s. If the Yankees are truly deciding their fifth starter based on Grapefruit League performance, there’s no clear-cut favorite right now. Of course, the Yankees have a history of fake Spring Training competitions and there’s a good chance all of this fifth starter stuff is a farce.
Based on nothing in particular, I believe the job is Nova’s to lose. The Yankees know he can handle starting every five days physically and have already seen what he can do when he’s commanding the ball. They should figure out whey Nova was unable to carry his success from the second half of 2011 over into 2012, and that’s probably not something he could do in the bullpen. Phelps was never in the rotation for more than one continuous months last year, so who knows what he’ll do over the a full season starting every five days. The Yankees need certainty from their rotation this year and Phelps is more of a question mark.
That said, both of these guys are going to get an opportunity — probably many, really — to start this year. Phil Hughes‘ back is already acting up and there’s a chance he’ll start the season on the DL. CC Sabathia is coming off offseason elbow surgery and Andy Pettitte hasn’t thrown more than 130 innings in four years. Almost no team ever makes it through the season with just five starters, so the smart money is on both Nova and Phelps making a whole bunch of starts this year. If Nova wins the job in camp but doesn’t pitch well during the regular season, I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate much to replace him. This fifth starter competition might be a year-long thing.
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Knocking on the Door
The Yankees have a few back-end types slated for the Triple-A Scranton rotation, specifically righties Brett Marshall and Adam Warren and lefty Vidal Nuno. Marshall and Warren were discussed in earlier season preview posts, but the 25-year-old Nuno has opened eyes in camp by allowing one run in 17.1 total innings. The Yankees plucked him out an independent league two years ago and the left-hander told Chad Jennings the team’s minor league coaching staff with helping him develop a cutter and changeup, which he now considers his two best pitchers. Nuno is a soft-tosser without much margin for error, which can be a scary thing in a small ballpark, but he’s made a name for himself this spring and that’s pretty much the best thing he could have done. He never had any chance to make the team.
The Top Prospect
We’ve talked about most of them these past few days — Marshall, Warren, Nuno, Matt Tracy, Nik Turley, etc. — so there’s not much to add here. Most fifth starters tend to be prospects who fell short of a higher ceiling, so there is not such thing as a true “top” fifth starter prospects. It’s almost like being a DH. It’s a fallback spot more than anything. The Yankees have some nice rotation inventory in the upper level of the minors but few (none?) of those project to be real impact starters in the show. I guess that makes they fifth starter prospects by default.
The Deep Sleeper
I’m going to take this opportunity to highlight 20-year-old left-hander Chaz Hebert, who signed for $148k as the team’s 27th round pick in 2011. He didn’t crack my preseason top 30 prospects list, but he took step forward in his development last summer and posted a 2.52 ERA (2.44 FIP) with 30 strikeouts and just four walks in 25 innings for the rookie level Gulf Coast league affiliate. He’s a low-90s fastball guy with a hilariously slow A.J. Griffin-esque mid-60s curveball, something he’ll have to firm up to succeed at the higher levels. Hebert is more sleeper than legit prospect, but command of the fastball and a novelty breaking ball can get you pretty far in life.
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The Yankees are fortunate to have two legitimate fifth starter candidates at the big league level and plenty of back-of-the-rotation depth in the Triple-A. You’d rather have projected aces obviously, but New York is in a much *much) better place pitching-wise now that it was six or seven years ago. They haven’t had to scramble for a Shawn Chacon or Aaron Small type for a few seasons now and that doesn’t figure to change now. Phelps and Nova give the team some options and competition is generally a good thing — those two will hopefully push each other all season long.
2013 Season Preview: The Number Fours
Posted by: | CommentsOur season preview series continues this week with the starting rotation, though the format will change just slightly. Since there’s no clear starter/backup/depth lineage when it comes to starting pitchers, we’ll instead look at each type of pitcher — ace, number two, back-end, etc. — at different levels.
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Number four starters are the black sheep of the rotation. The top three guys are important for obvious reasons, they’re the ones who will be expected the carry the team in the regular season and (especially) in the postseason. Fifth starters tend to be eminently replaceable and inconsequential. Fourth starters are just … there. Necessary, but not good enough to grab headlines and usually not bad enough to make teams seek a replacement.
St. Philip of Hughes
Phil Hughes is no kid anymore. He’s entering his seventh big league season and will qualify for free agency next winter. The 26-year-old has thrown 635 innings across 152 career games, so it wouldn’t be wrong to call him a veteran at this point. He’s been a top prospect, a rookie starter, an elite setup man, injured, an All-Star starting pitcher, a World Champion … you name it and it seems like Hughes has done it already.
Last summer, Phil followed up an awful April (7.88 ERA and 6.53 FIP) with five pretty strong months (3.90 ERA and ~4.32 FIP), with the end result being 32 starts and 191.1 innings that were almost exactly league average (4.23 ERA and 4.56 FIP). Hughes was maddeningly homer prone (1.65 HR/9) and that’s something that didn’t change all year. Even at his best he’d give up homers, they just happened to be solo homers because he never walked anyone (2.16 BB/9 and 5.6 BB%). Hughes quietly posted the tenth best K/BB ratio in the league (3.59), better than Hiroki Kuroda, Jered Weaver, and reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price.
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
A minor back injury forced Hughes out of his Game Three start in the ALCS, and another back issue (maybe related, maybe not) sidelined him for several weeks in camp. He threw a simulated game earlier this week and the next step could involve a minor league start, but the bottom line is that he may not be ready in time for the start of the season. If not, he’ll open the year on the DL and presumably rejoin the rotation in the second or third turn through. Barring no setbacks, of course.
Hughes is a bit of a polarizing figure in Yankeeland. Some see a failed prospect, others see a useful fourth starter, others see a guy about to enter the prime of his career. Who’s right? Probably all three to some extent. It’s extremely unlikely Hughes will ever develop into the frontline pitcher he was projected to become a few years ago, but at the same time it’s obvious he’s a big league caliber starter right now. At 26 and going on 27 this summer, taking a step forward isn’t out of the question at all. He fits all of that criteria.
As far as the Yankees are concerned, the Yankees will need Hughes to be better this season than he was last year. They lost a lot of offense and will rely on their pitching to carry them, so Phil needs to take that step forward and put together six strong months instead of just five. He’ll have to curb the homer problem a bit — won’t be easy in Yankee Stadium and the other offense-happy AL East parks, obviously — and most importantly, stay on the field. Whenever he gets back from the DL, he has to stay healthy and make every start the rest of the way.
As far as his impending free agency, all Hughes needs to do to ensure a fat contract is repeat his 2012 effort. Guys who are still three years away from their 30th birthday and have had three league average seasons in the last four years tend to get paid well, especially when they do it in the AL East and have a strong playoff track record*. Will the Yankees be the team to give him his next contract? I’m pretty convinced the answer is no given the plan to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold in 2014. It’s one thing to let guys like Nick Swisher and Russell Martin leave as free agents, but it’s another to let homegrown players like Hughes walk, especially at his age. I wouldn’t be too happy if that happens.
* Hughes got crushed in the 2010 ALCS (11 runs in 8.2 IP), but otherwise he’s been nails in the postseason. We’re talking a 2.61 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 31 innings. Doesn’t mean much, but it’s better than the alternative.
(Star-Ledger)
Knocking on the Door
The Yankees have a few back-end types slated for Triple-A Scranton, with the best of the bunch being 25-year-old Adam Warren. The right-hander got pounded in his big league debut (and only career MLB game to date) last summer, allowing six runs and ten of the 17 men he faced to reach base in 2.1 innings, but he was much more effective in Triple-A (3.71 ERA and 3.72 FIP in 152.2 IP). I ranked him 17th on my preseason top 30 prospects list in part because a little of his prospect shine has come off in the last year, mostly because he repeated Triple-A and didn’t take much of a step forward (if any) in his performance. Warren has the tools to start — specifically a five-pitch fix and an aggressive, bulldog approach — but will need something else to click to reach that number four starter ceiling. I like him best as a short reliever, where he can scrap some of the miscellaneous pitches and attack hitters with his two best offerings.
The Top Prospect
It’s Warren, but for the sake of variety I’m also going to mention left-hander Matt Tracy. The 24-year-old southpaw has just one season as a full-time pitcher under his belt, yet he still managed a 3.18 ERA (3.63 FIP) in 99 innings for High-A Tampa last year. He uses his big — listed at 6–foot-3 and 215 lbs. — frame to pitch downhill with a low-90s fastball and a fading changeup. The Yankees also have him working on a big-breaking curveball. Tracy signed as a college senior in the 24th round of the 2011 draft, so he’s a older than typical High-A prospects in terms of age but quite a bit younger in terms of pitching experience. I’m a fan and I ranked him 22nd on my preseason top 30, just a handful of spots behind Warren. The Yankees will aggressively bump Tracy up to Double-A Trenton this summer and he could force his way into the big league picture by the second half of 2014.
The Deep Sleeper
Probably going a little too far off the board here, but 21-year-old right-hander Cesar Vargas has the three-pitch mix and solid enough command to wind up near the back of a big league rotation. He pitched to a 3.13 ERA (2.96 FIP) in 46 innings with the rookie level Gulf Coast League affiliate and Short Season Staten Island last year, his first in the United States after three in the Dominican Summer League. Vargas obviously has a very, very long way to go, but all the tools are there for him to become a number four starter down the road. He just has to learn how to use them.
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The Yankees and Hughes are in a very weird place this season. They obviously need him to be very good this summer, but the better he pitches the less likely it is he re-signs with the team after the year. Not exactly what we’re all used to, but such is life. Warren and Tracy give the team some decent back-end depth, plus they could serve as trade bait if the team needs to make a move or three. Cheap starters are always a hot commodity.
2013 Season Preview: The Number Threes
Posted by: | CommentsOur season preview series continues this week with the starting rotation, though the format will change just slightly. Since there’s no clear starter/backup/depth lineage when it comes to starting pitchers, we’ll instead look at each type of pitcher — ace, number two, back-end, etc. — at different levels.
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
In the lexicon of numbered rotation slots, number three starters probably generate the least amount of conversation. We argue whether numbers twos are really aces (and vice versa), whether number fives are really numbers fours, but number threes are just kinda there. Since they’re right smack in the middle of the five-man rotation, you’d think a league-average starter qualifies as a number three. That’s not really the case though, the distribution of talent is not balanced. There are way more back-end guys than aces, so a number three should really be an above-average starter.
Ol’ Reliable
I can’t believe I’m writing a season preview post about Andy Pettitte in 2013. His comeback from a one-year retirement was a smashing success in 2012, at least when he was actually on the mound — a hard-hit ground ball fractured his leg in late-June and it kept him on the shelf until mid-September. Pettitte was stellar in the 12 starts he did make though, pitching to a 2.87 ERA (3.48 FIP) in 75.1 innings with career-highs in strikeout (22.8%) and ground ball (56.3%) rates. Andy pitched like an ace when healthy.
Less than three months from his 41st birthday, Pettitte returns again for what the Yankees hope will be his first full season in four years. Injuries limited him to 21 starts and 129 innings in 2010, so he hasn’t made 30 starts or thrown even 150 innings since helping the club win the 2009 World Series. We all know Pettitte has the stuff, the command, and the pitching smarts to navigate a full season, but the question is his durability. That doesn’t necessarily mean staying off the DL either, he could simply run out of gas in say, mid-August. It’s going to be something the team will have to constantly monitor.
(Al Bello/Getty)
As amazing as those 12 starts were last year, I don’t think it’s at all reasonable to expect a similar performance in 2013. I’d take it in a heartbeat obviously, but I’m not expecting it. What I am expecting is regular ol’ Andy Pettitte, which means a low-4.00s ERA — maybe less because of the decreased offensive environment — and lots of wiggling out of jams. If he manages to hold up and take the ball every five days, he should be among the best number three starters in baseball. Pettitte entered “you know what you’re going to get” territory a long time ago, which of course is something that doesn’t really exist. It just feels like we know exactly what he’ll do over the course of the season.
Since the Yankees do have six viable big league starters, I do think they should be cognizant of Pettitte’s workload during the course of the summer. That could mean using an off-day to skip his turn or giving him an extra day of rest between starts with some kind of modified six-man rotation. It’s a tough thing to do because you want him to make as many starts as possible but not burn him out before things heat up late in the season. You also don’t want to keep him from finding a rhythm. There’s also the train of thought that all the time off from 2011-2012 did Pettitte’s arm and body some good and he’s as fresh as ever. Who knows. I’ll be keeping an eye on the workload though, that’s for sure.
Knocking on the Door
I’m not the biggest Brett Marshall fan in the world — ranked him 13th on my preseason top 30 prospects list — but the 22-year-old right-hander is slated to open the season with Triple-A Scranton and he has the tools to be a number three-type starter down the road. That includes a true four-pitch mix highlighted by the best sinker in the organization, a heavy low-90s offering that bores into right-handed hitters. A low-80s changeup is Marshall’s second best pitch, and he’ll also throw sliders and curveballs. My biggest concern is that he has struggled to miss bats as a professional, with a career 6.97 K/9 (18.3 K%) in full season ball and 6.82 K/9 (18.1 K%) in Double-A last year. Marshall would have to boost the strikeout rate a bit to reach that number three starter ceiling, which is something he could do as he further refines the two breaking balls. Either way, he hasn’t missed a start since having Tommy John surgery in 2009 and has the workhorse part down pat. Marshall is on the 40-man roster and there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see him in the big leagues at some point this summer, but he does have a few guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
The Top Prospect
Two spots before Marshall on my preseason top 30 was left-hander Nik Turley, who is expected to open the season with Double-A Trenton. The 23-year-old has climbed the ladder deliberately since being a 50th round pick in 2008, though he has since emerged as one of the organization’s better pitching prospects. Turley resides in the upper-80s/low-90s with his fastball even though his frame — listed at 6-foot-6 and 240 lbs. — makes you think he could crank it up into the mid-90s. A big overhand curveball is his most consistent offspeed pitch, but his changeup is solid and flashes more out-pitch potential. Unlike Marshall, Turley has had no trouble missing bats since getting to full season ball (8.88 K/9 and 23.5 K%). The Yankees added the big southpaw to the 40-man roster this past winter, though I do expect him to spend pretty much the entire year with the Thunder. If he makes his MLB debut in 2013, it means something has gone either unexpectedly excellent or horribly wrong.
The Deep Sleeper
I’m a very big fan (almost certainly too big) of 20-year-old left-hander Daniel Camarena. The Yankees bought him away from a commitment to San Diego with a $335k bonus as their 20th round pick in 2011, but a minor arm issue limited him to 17.2 rookie ball innings during his pro debut last summer. They were 17.2 really awesome innings — 15 strikeouts and no walks — but my fandom is based on his ability to throw strikes with three pitches. Camarena sits in the upper-80s/low-90s with his fastball and backs it up with a curveball and changeup, plus it all plays up because he commands everything well and knows how to set hitters up. When the Yankees drafted him, I half-jokingly said they were getting a college pitcher (in terms of polish) in a high school pitcher’s body. He obviously has a long way to go before having a big league impact, but Camarena has everything needed to fill a mid-rotation slot down the road.
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Pettitte is the number three starter in terms of where he expect him to slot into the rotation, though I think most fans consider him something more than that in terms of expected performance. I’m hedging my bets a bit because he hasn’t thrown a full season in a while, but I wouldn’t put repeating last year’s performance past him. Pettitte has a knack for exceeding expectations and like the rest of his rotation-mates, he will be counted on heavily this summer. Youngsters like Marshall and Turley give the Yankees some nearly big league ready arms who project to fill a mid-rotation slot in the long-term.
