While it hasn’t been hard in the last few years to claim the title of ‘best Yankee starting pitcher,’ it’s one that undoubtedly goes to right hander Masahiro Tanaka. At times, there have been pitchers who’ve performed better than he has, but on balance, it’s difficult to compete with him. Whenever he’s on the mound, there’s a feeling that something special can and will happen; I think it’s safe to say that all of us want him to pitch as much as possible. Unfortunately for Tanaka, the Yankees, and us the fans, he’s been unable to make at least 25 starts in both of his seasons in the US and has never reached even 160 innings pitched. To boot, he’s coming off surgery this offseason, so his health is a question going into the 2016 regular season (just like everyone else not named “Luis Severino,” who comes with his own concerns).
As of now, Tanaka is lined up to start Opening Day vs. the Astros, which is unsurprising. The honor is mostly ceremonial, but throwing your best pitcher on Opening Day is also a nice way to get off on your best foot early on in the season. That goes doubly when the team you’re playing first–the Astros–is a fellow potential Wild Card contender for later on in the season. The frequent breaks in the April schedule also offer an interesting temptation to the Yankees as it regards to Tanaka. With regular rest for each start, the Yankees can swing a way to have him make six starts in April, all against possible playoff teams.
If (when) he starts on Opening Day, he would be lined up to pitch again on Sunday the 10th against the Tigers if the Yankees opted to cycle through their rotation fully before returning to Tanaka. Continuing on that schedule would give him five starts in the month: 4/4; 4/10; 4/15 (Mariners); 4/21 (A’s); 4/26 (Rangers). There’s also a way the Yankees could get him six starts in the month by taking advantage of the off days and not using their back-end starters. Pitching Tanaka with exactly four days of rest, regardless of the rotation, would allow him to start on 4/4 (Astros); 4/9 (Tigers); 4/14 (Blue Jays); 4/19 (A’s); 4/24 (Rays); and 4/29 (Red Sox).
The effect here is two-fold: it gives Tanaka–the best pitcher–the most possible starts and it allows the Yankees to skip players they might want to skip, whether it’s CC Sabathia for purposes of easing him back into the rotation and keeping his knee healthy, or wanting to tinker with Luis Severino’s innings, as not to wear him out early in the year. The Yankees may say Severino has no restrictions, but as Mike noted in his season preview for Severino, there’s no reason to believe them.
Coincidentally, there’s also a performance trend regarding Tanaka and regular rest. The sample size is relatively small–87.1 innings–but Tanaka has his best split ERA–2.89–when pitching on just four days’ rest. He does his absolute best work on six+ days of rest, but that’s not feasible given the relative weakness of the Yankee rotation, even if they add a sixth starter.
This plan isn’t without its obstacles. Tanaka’s coming off of surgery and though everything seems to be going alright on that front, it may not be wise to push him right out of the gate. There are also concerns as they relate to the bullpen. Skipping starters in favor of Tanaka could put some extra strain on the bullpen, the middle of which is yet to be sorted out. This would be less of a concern were Aroldis Chapman around, but his more-than-well-deserved suspension pushes Dellin Betances back an inning and thins out the pre-eighth inning options for Joe Girardi. Employing the Scranton Shuttle could help alleviate the fatigue issue, but it doesn’t necessarily sort out the quality issue.
I’m conflicted on the alternate plans I presented earlier, but my senses want me to want the Yankees to give in to temptation and forgo others in favor of Tanaka getting the most starts. The Yankees faded in the back half of last year and given the age of their roster, it’s not hard to see that happening again. Getting off to the strongest start possible is of the utmost importance and pitching Tanaka six times–with three against division opponents–in April rather than five–with none against division opponents–helps accomplish that.
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