4/4 to 4/7 Series Preview: Houston Astros

I guess it’s fitting the Yankees will begin the 2016 season the same way the 2015 season ended: at Yankee Stadium against the Astros. The Yankees and Astros are playing on Opening Day for the second time in three seasons — they also finished the 2013 season against each other — even though they are not AL East rivals. Kinda weird. Blame the computer that generates the schedule. Anyway, let’s get to the first series preview of the new season, one day later than originally scheduled.

What Did They Do Last Year?

The ‘Stros went 86-76 with a +111 run differential in 2015, good enough to earn the second wildcard spot. As you know, they shut the Yankees out 3-0 in the wildcard game. Houston was actually in first place for most of the season before coughing it up the AL West lead late to the Rangers. Manager A.J. Hinch’s squad limped to the finish with an 11-16 record in September. Also, they went 53-28 at home and 33-48 on the road.

Offense & Defense

Overall, the Astros ranked sixth in baseball with 729 runs scored last year. They were second with 230 homers and fourth with a team 105 wRC+. Houston added no one to their lineup this past offseason. Not one notable position player addition. They will have a full season of OF Carlos Gomez, who came over at the trade deadline last year.

The Astros are currently without DH Evan Gattis (hernia) and backup catcher C Max Stassi (wrist), both of whom recently had surgery. They’re both on the disabled list, so we won’t see either guy this series. Since the season is just starting, here is each player’s 2015 performance and 2016 ZiPS projection. There’s nothing else to look at right now:

That’s too many numbers for Monday morning. Sorry. Duffy — that’s not the Giants’ Matt Duffy, it’s a different Matt Duffy — is going to play against lefties, either for Valbuena at third or Tucker at DH. Actually, Tucker probably isn’t married to that DH spot. Hinch will probably rotate players in and out at DH while Gattis is on the DL.

Altuve, Springer, Correa, Rasmus, and Gomez occupy the top five spots in the lineup, usually in that order. The 6-9 spots are a bit more up in the air. The Astros have a pretty strong lineup. They are very strikeout prone; this largely unchanged lineup had a 22.9% strikeout rate last year, second highest in baseball. Altuve, who is an extreme contact hitter, is the only regular ZiPS projects to strike out at a rate lower than the league average. They hit homers and they strike out. That’s what they do.

Defensively, the Astros are very good in the outfield but surprisingly questionable on the infield. Sean Dolinar at FanGraphs put together some really cool defensive visualizations recently, so here’s the ‘Stros:

Blue is good, red is bad. The numbers are the projected runs the player at that position is expected to save (or cost) the team this season. Pretty cool, no? The eye test tells me Altuve is better than the numbers, for what it’s worth. I have a hard time buying him as a below-average gloveman. Either way, don’t hit it to Gomez. He’s incredible in center. Hit it to someone else.

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday (1pm ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. HOU) vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel (vs. NYY)
Last season Keuchel was deservedly named the Cy Young Award winner after ranking either first or second in the AL in wins (20, 1st), innings (232, 1st), ERA (2.48, 2nd), ERA+ (162, 1st), WHIP (1.02, 1st), ground ball rate (61.7%, 1st), soft contact rate (25.2%, 1st), hard contact rate (21.3%, 1st), and bWAR (7.2, 1st). He was third in fWAR (6.1), fifth in FIP (2.91), seventh in strikeout rate (23.7%), and tenth in walk rate (5.6%). Keuchel also allowed zero runs in 17 innings this spring. Dude’s good, but you knew that already.

Keuchel, 28, is not going to blow hitters away. He sits right around 90 mph with his trademark sinker and a notch below that with his cutter. Sliders and changeups right around 80 mph are his two secondary pitches. Keuchel throws strikes with all four pitches, and like I said before the wildcard game last year, the best way to attack him may be swinging early in the count. (That’s worth doing a little more this season overall.) He’s not someone who will beat himself by falling behind in the count. The Yankees aren’t going to wait him out. Keuchel dominated the Yankees last season, but last season is last season. It means nothing now.

Wednesday (7pm ET): RHP Michael Pineda (vs. HOU) vs. RHP Collin McHugh (vs. NYY)
The Astros grabbed the 28-year-old McHugh off waivers from the Rockies during the 2013-14 offseason, and he’s since turned into a very good rotation piece. He had a 3.89 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 203.2 innings a year ago, with strikeout (19.9%) and grounder (45.4%) rates that were about average. His walk (6.2%) and homer (0.84 HR/9) rates were good though. McHugh had a reverse split for the first time last summer and he didn’t add a pitch or change his pitch selection, so I’m inclined to believe it’s a one-year blip for now. He’s not a guy with a big fastball — McHugh averages 90 mph with his four-seamer and 87 mph with his cutter, which he throws a lot — but he keeps hitters off balance with a slow and loopy low-70s curveball. A while back Crawfish Boxes put together a cool look at how McHugh uses high fastballs and curveballs together:

The high heater and curveball look the same out of McHugh’s hand and come in on the same plane until the curve falls of the table. That’s the ol’ Ben Sheets approach and it can be really effective. That’s why hitters will look silly on 90 mph fastballs and loopy curves. The pitches look the same for so damn long.

Thursday (4pm ET): RHP Nathan Eovaldi (vs. HOU) vs. RHP Mike Fiers (vs. NYY)
Last year the Astros picked up Fiers from the Brewers as part of the Gomez deal. Fiers, 30, had a 3.69 ERA (4.03 FIP) in 180.1 total innings in 2015, including a 3.32 ERA (4.39 FIP) in 62.1 innings for Houston. He threw a no-hitter with the Astros as well. Overall, Fiers had a good strikeout rate (23.7%) and an okay walk rate (8.4%) last year, but he’s generally fly ball (37.6%) and home run (1.20 HR/9) prone. Like McHugh, he had a reverse split last season that was out of line with the rest of his career. We’ll see if it sticks going forward. Fiers is a three-pitch pitcher who throws five pitches. Let me explain. His main pitches are a four-seamer right around 90 mph, a low-80s changeup, and a low-70s curveball. He throws those pitches a combined 90% of the time or so. Fiers will also mix in a handful of mid-80s cutters and low-80s sliders per start. (I wonder if the cutter and slider are actually one pitch with a wide range of velocities.) Enough that hitters have to be aware of them. Generally speaking, fly ball prone righties and Yankee Stadium do not mix.

Bullpen Status

The Astros made only two notable additions this offseason. They signed veteran RHP Doug Fister, who won’t start this series, and they traded a huge prospect package to the Phillies for RHP Ken Giles. Giles is one of the best relievers in all of baseball. He’s not at the Dellin Betances/Andrew Miller level, but he’s not far off.

Hinch announced yesterday RHP Luke Gregerson, not Giles, will be his closer this season. That’s probably a smart move. Maybe suprising, but smart. Here is the club’s bullpen with their 2015 performance and 2016 ZiPS:

The Astros have a very strikeout heavy bullpen. Gregerson also has a history of getting a lot of ground balls, though last season’s 60.4% ground ball was easily a career best. He gets a lot of grounders, but usually not that many.

The addition of Giles pushes Neshek and Sipp into middle innings roles regardless of whether he closes or sets up. Sipp added a splitter two years ago and is now much more than a lefty specialist. From top to bottom, this is a really good staff. There’s a reason the Astros allowed the fewest runs in the AL (618) last season. Giles (and Fister too, I guess) will only help that.