Welcome to the first RAB mailbag of the new year. We’ve got 14 questions for you this week. As always, the place to send your questions is RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.
Dan asks: They say a team needs to know which prospects to trade and which to hold onto when making deals. Who would you say are the top 5 prospects we should try to hold on to and who are the top 5 who you could cope with losing if they were dealt? Just to clarify, I’m not talking about organizational players, I’m talking about actual prospects who you think are less likely to work out.
I’ve written this a few times myself. The Yankees have a great farm system right now, arguably the best in baseball, but of course everyone won’t work out. That’s baseball. In a perfect world you keep the good ones and trade the bad ones before they have a chance to show they’re not going to make it. Sell high, as they say.
Of course, it’s damn near impossible to tell which guys are going to work out and which ones will bust. Being able to predict the future would make life boring. Personally, I’d be most willing to part with position players with contact issues and/or defensive questions, and most pitchers (due to injury risk). So, based on that, here are my lists:
- Keep: Gleyber Torres, Jorge Mateo, Blake Rutherford, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade
- Trade: Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, James Kaprielian, Albert Abreu, Dillon Tate
I’d put Justus Sheffield in the keeper pile because among of the Yankees’ best pitching prospects, he’s the healthiest and most advanced. A healthy Kaprielian would be an easy call over Sheffield, but Kaprielian missed almost the entire 2016 season with an elbow issue, and that’s scary.
Mateo is a difficult one because he didn’t have a great 2016 season and he did strike out a fair amount in High-A (21.3%), especially for a guy whose game is going to be putting the ball in play and running like hell. The tools are incredible though, probably the best in the system, and he still is only 21. He’s a keeper for me.
I should make it clear that just because I have those five players listed in the “trade” category, it doesn’t mean I want them gone. I’d prefer to hold on to Frazier and Judge because they’re potential middle of the order bats close to MLB. I’m just saying that in a potential blockbuster trade, say for Jose Quintana, I’d prefer to trade them before the others.
Frank asks: I just finished reading an article on FanGraphs and noticed that Michael Pineda had a 3.2 fWAR and Jake Arrieta had a 3.8 fWAR in 2016. Can you explain how this even remotely makes sense?
It’s good to slap together a quick WAR primer every now and then. There are two major versions of WAR: FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR). For pitchers, fWAR is based on FIP, which only looks at strikeouts, walks, and home runs. It eliminates balls in play based on the assumption the pitcher has no control over whether his defense makes the play. Nowadays we know some pitchers are better at limiting hard contact than others, which affects whether the defense can make the play, so FIP is a bit outdated.
bWAR is based on actual runs allowed, not FIP. That’s why Pineda (4.82 ERA) had +1.2 bWAR in 2016 while Arrieta (3.10 ERA) was at +3.4 bWAR. Pineda has always had incredible strikeout and walk rates, so his FIP is consistently lower than his ERA. fWAR overrates Pineda. Anyone who’s watched him the last three years knows he’s prone to fat mistake pitches and is far more hittable than the strikeout and walk numbers would lead you to believe. I use bWAR almost exclusively for pitchers. Tell me what happened, not what theoretically should have happened.
Lucas asks: B-Ref says Ellsbury had the 2nd best Defensive season of his career last year. Just from watching him he seemed to have really fallen off last year. What gives?
The defensive metrics were all over the place with Jacoby Ellsbury last year for whatever reason. Here are the numbers:
- DRS: +8 (third best season out of ten)
- UZR: +0.7 (seventh best season)
- FRAA: -14.5 (worst season)
- Total Zone: +1 (sixth best season)
- Defensive WAR: +1.2 (second best)
Yeah, I don’t know either. My eyes told me Ellsbury was still a solid defensive center fielder last season, though not as good as he was two or three years ago. That’s normal. He turned 33 in September and guys tend to slow down at that age. Johnny Damon’s transition to left field started at age 33 and he was there full-time within a year. Ellsbury figures to make a similar transition soon enough, which is another reason Brett Gardner almost has to be traded.
P.J. asks: I realize it’s premature since 2017 hasn’t even started but jumping ahead to next winter’s FA class. Do you think the Yankees would have any interest in Carlos Santana as a DH on say a 3 or 4 year deal @ $15MM per? The roster spot would be open and he really isn’t blocking any Yankee player.
I love Santana. One of my favorite hitters in the game. Last season he hit .259/.366/.498 (132 wRC+) with 34 home runs and exactly as many walks as strikeouts (99 each, or 14.4% of his plate appearances). Santana will turn 31 shortly after Opening Day and he’s been a consistent 20+ homer/90+ walk player. And he switch-hits. That’s cool. Matt Holliday is on a one-year contract, so the Yankees have an opening at DH going forward, and Santana could also spent time at first base as well. He’d be a nice caddy for Greg Bird going forward.
Next winter’s free agent class is loaded with power corner bats again and I wonder if Santana will get stuck waiting for a contract a la Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, and Chris Carter this year. The qualifying offer will approach $18M next year and I’m not sure the Indians will risk it, especially since there’s a chance Santana won’t sign a $50M+ contract. In that case Cleveland would only get a supplemental third round draft pick, not a first rounder. I definitely have interest in Santana though. Dude can rake.
Al asks: If the Dodgers are willing to trade a premium prospect for a RH second baseman, why don’t the Yankees gauge their interest in Castro? I’m not down on Castro, but if the Yankees could get De Leon or Bellinger, that might be a smart move. We could live with Refsnyder or Utley for a year until one of the middle infield prospects is ready.
The Yankees aren’t getting a premium prospect for Starlin Castro. They traded Adam Warren to get him last year. What did Castro do in 2016 to raise his stock from Warren to someone like Jose De Leon? He hit a career high 21 homers and that’s about it. His (lack of) approach will still drive you nuts, and now he’s more expensive and another year closer to free agency. The Dodgers are willing to trade De Leon (and others) for Brian Dozier because Dozier is a considerably better player than Castro. Castro’s not worth a premium prospect at all. If a team offers one, the Yankees should trade him immediately. It’d be a great one-year flip.
Brady asks: I’m reading reports that Bautista would sign a 1 year deal at or above the QO threshold (~$17M). That’s a very good player on a short term contract. I know the outfield is crowded, but how do you not make a 1/17 offer? What are the draft ramifications?
The free agent compensation rules are the same this offseason, so the Yankees would have to surrender their first round pick (16th overall) to sign Bautista. I don’t want the Yankees anywhere near him, even on a one-year contract. That’s a move you make when you’re ready to win the World Series right now, not when you’re trying to develop your next young core. Signing the 36-year-old Bautista means the 24-year-old Judge has to go back to Triple-A, and that’s not something a smart rebuilding team does. And you know what else? Not many people like Bautista either, especially around these parts. Let’s stick with the young, exciting, likable players. Could be cool.
Dave asks (short version): Am I crazy to think that adding Robertson & Quintana makes us a solid Wild Card contender?
They very well might. Jose Quintana could be as much as a five-win upgrade over whichever young kid he replaces in the rotation, and David Robertson over the last guy in the bullpen could be another win as well. Maybe two. Assuming the Yankees don’t give up anything off their MLB roster in the trade, Quintana and Robertson could represent an additional 5-7 wins in 2017. I think the Yankees are somewhere in the 82-84 win range right now. Add those two, and suddenly the Yankees are looking at a win total in the 87-91 win range, which means postseason contention.
Mark asks: If Sabathia pitches to the tune of 10-12 wins and a 4.00 era in 2017, is it worth offering him $8m 1 year deal for 2018? I picture him being the sort of Kuroda/Pettitte type to keep signing 1 year deals if he is feeling well and continues to master the art of pitching. Or do you think he has made enough money that there isn’t enough incentive to keep playing? He doesn’t seem like the David Cone type, pitch until they take the jersey away.
If CC Sabathia pitches effectively in 2017 and is open to returning on a one-year contract in 2018, the Yankees should totally bring him back. They’re going to need the pitching, and Sabathia would be the perfect one-year contract candidate. The Yankees know him and vice versa, so there would be no adjustment period, and Sabathia would be a pretty great clubhouse guy to have around the kids. He’s basically Andy Pettitte at this point. If he wants to keep pitching and is effective, then keep putting those one-year contracts in front of him. There will always be room in the rotation for a solid veteran starter, especially a lefty in Yankee Stadium.
Kenny asks: Mike, you have mentioned a lefty reliever as a small priority (even though I think Layne is more than fine, remember the Toronto game?)but what about Charlie Furbush? Converted starter with AL experience and a funky delivery who would probably come cheap off of a season where he didn’t pitch because of rotator cuff issues.
The Mariners traded Pineda, Cliff Lee, and Doug Fister all within 18 months of each other, and pretty much all they had to show for those trades was Furbush. Brutal. Furbush was pretty darn good for Seattle from 2012-15, pitching to a 3.23 ERA (3.02 FIP) with 27.9% strikeouts and 8.2% walks in 175.1 innings, but he missed the entire 2016 season with shoulder problems and was non-tendered last month. He’s worth a minor league contract, sure, but the Yankees aren’t in position to guarantee him a roster spot. Not after the shoulder injury and not with 40-man roster space at a premium. Aside from Boone Logan and Jerry Blevins, healthy Charlie Furbush is probably the best lefty reliever in free agency right now, but is healthy?
Joe asks: These days it seems that pitching prospects don’t get taken seriously unless they throw 95. Is there anyone coming up through the Yankee system who has the potential to be another Jimmy Key- meaning someone who may turn into a quality starter without lighting up any radar guns?
Not really. Ian Clarkin and Dietrich Enns are probably the closest thing to a Jimmy Key type in the system right now. Depending which scouting report you read, Clarkin’s fastball hovers around 90 mph these days, down a few ticks from before his elbow injury in 2015. Enns has never been a hard-thrower. He’ll top out at 91 mph on his best days. Neither Clarkin nor Enns has Key’s pinpoint control and dead fish changeup, so don’t expect them to match his success. Teams look for prospects who throw hard because a) you can’t teach it, b) velocity gives you more margin for error, and c) pitchers lose velocity as they age, so the guys who are sitting in the upper-80s in their early-20s might not have much staying power in the show.
Paul asks: What kind of year would Holliday have to have for the Yankees to consider offering him a qualifying offer?
I don’t think it’s possible. I mean, yeah, I suppose Holliday could have a freak .330/.500/.750 season like Barry Bonds or something, but that won’t happen. The Yankees are going to pay luxury tax in 2017, and per the terms of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, they will only be able to receive a draft pick after the fourth round for any qualifying free agent. The upside of getting a draft pick after the fourth round (140th overall range) isn’t nearly great enough to risk having a soon-to-be 38-year-old Holliday accept the $18M or so qualifying offer next winter. Way too much risk, not enough reward. Even a bounceback to his 2014 levels (.272/.370/.441/132 wRC+) wouldn’t make him qualifying offer worthy.
Mark asks: I wanted to ask a question regarding former top prospects who seemingly have fallen out favor, namely Mason Williams and guys like Jake Cave, etc. Do guys like these have any trade value left? Or, are they a wait and hold to see if they can gain value in the future? Another Yankees blog (sorry I’ve been seeing other blogs on the side) suggested that they move Mason Williams for some pitching which seems absolutely ridiculous to me.
They have close to zero trade value. Cave just went unpicked in the Rule 5 Draft. Any team could have had him and kept him — as a two-time Rule 5 Draft guy, he could have elected free agency rather be returned to the Yankees, at which point his new team could have just re-signed him with no strings attached — and yet no one did. Williams is going to be 26 in August and his track record of excellence is very short. He’s got a major shoulder injury in his recent history too. Who is giving up a pitcher for him? I mean a decent pitcher, not a similar busted prospect. Williams is more valuable to the Yankees as a depth option than anything he could realistically fetch in a trade. It’s not 2012 anymore. Guys like Williams and Cave have a negligible amount of trade value.
P.J. asks: Is there a reason 20 year old Thairo Estrada might have been complete ignored by MLB Pipeline when they ranked the Yankees Top 30 Prospects back in August? And is there a chance he could make the list when they update their list in the next month or so?
Estrada was a victim of the system’s depth. MLB.com ranked him 28th in the system before 2016, so he was on the bubble anyway, then the Yankees went and made all those trades to bolster the system. I’m a huge Thairo fan, yet when I sketched out the first draft of my annual preseason top 30 prospects list, he didn’t make the cut. There’s just so much depth in the system right now. Estrada could definitely make it back into the top 30 at some point. Maybe not in Spring Training, but later in the season or next winter, once more prospects graduate and the system inevitably thins out a bit.
Mike asks (short version): Why are some retired players left off the Hall of Fame ballot? I noticed Javier Vazquez is not on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot and believe it or not, he had a career 53.9 fWAR which is 65th all time, but Tim Wakefield Is on it and his career fWAR was just 27.4. Both finished their careers in 2011. Of course I am not saying Vazquez is a HOFer or anything, but I’m wondering why he was left off but someone like Wakefield was put on.
First a player needs to spend ten years in the big leagues to be eligible for the Hall of Fame. Then they need to pass through a six-person screening committee (all BBWAA members) to actually be placed on the ballot. The screening committee determined Vazquez did not deserve to be on the Hall of Fame ballot, which was egregious. Vazquez is, by a huge margin, the greatest Puerto Rican born pitcher in MLB history. It’s not close. Some numbers:
- Wins: 165 (Juan Pizarro is second with 131)
- Innings: 2,840 (Jaime Navarro is second with 2,055.1)
- Strikeouts: 2,536 (Pizarro is second with 1,522)
- WAR: +43.3 (Roberto Hernandez is second with +18.5)
Vazquez isn’t a Hall of Famer, but holy crap how does the screening committee leave him off the ballot? Matt Stairs is on the ballot. Casey Blake is on the ballot. Arthur Rhodes is on the ballot. Vazquez belongs. So did Chan-Ho Park a few years ago. Park was the first Korean player in MLB history, yet he was left off the ballot. Hall of Famer? No. But at least deserving of being on the ballot. The screening committee generally does a good job. Vazquez and Park are the two major oversights in recent years.
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