The final stage of grieving is acceptance. With pitchers and catchers a mere two sleeps away, it’s time to look back on the starting pitchers who eluded the grasp of Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees and look forward to what 2011 holds for them. With the aid of Baseball Prospectus’ “deadly accurate” PECOTA projection system we can attempt to formulate an expectation for the players that will be donning the duds of other inferior teams in 2011. The list includes five names. The Yankees have been tied to all of them in varying degrees of interest: explicit interest, media-driven interest, and the wishful thinking of fans, or “should have”-interest. We’ll start with the most painful one of all.
Cliff Lee, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
2010: 212.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 7.84 K/9, 0.76 BB/9, 10.28 K/BB, 41.9 GB%.
2011 PECOTA projection: 211 IP, 3.17 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 6.80 K/9, 1.60 BB/9, 4.18 K/BB, 44.2 GB%.
As is no surprise, the crown jewel of the offseason and the one for whom I have no end of hatred in my heart now grades out quite favorably by PECOTA’s standards. The high innings pitched total must be reassuring to Philly fans who have any degree of concern over his past back and oblique injury and his general advancement in age (he turns 33 this summer): 211 innings pitched is the 8th highest projected total in the PECOTA system for starting pitchers. PECOTA is seeing a regression in his strike out rate closer to his career average of 6.93 despite the fact that he’s moving to the National League. It’s also seeing an increase in his walk rate, hardly a surprise given how low it was in 2010. Despite the fact that his projected walk rate of 1.60 BB/9 is nearly a full batter higher per nine innings, this mark would have been fourth-best in baseball in 2010. Regression in his strikeout and walk rates means that his historic K/BB ratio should come back to earth a bit in 2011; again though a 4.18 K/BB would have ranked third-best in baseball. It’s unlikely that Lee can replicate his virtually unprecedented strikeout to walk ratio in 2011, but he still projects to be one of the best pitchers in the game. I hate you, Cliff.
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2010: 196.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 7.29 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 3.31 K/BB, 51.1 GB%.
2011 PECOTA projection: 171.3 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 6.10 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 2.72 K/BB, 50.1 GB%.
Including Kuroda in this group of pitchers is slightly misleading. He signed with Los Angeles during the exclusive negotiating window after the World Series; teams like the Yankees never had a real shot at inking him. Regardless, Kuroda is also projected to put together a very good 2011 season. PECOTA expects a decrease in his strikeout rate from his 2010 mark, but projects an identical walk rate and nearly identical ground-ball percentage.
Last summer in a piece entitled “Bring me Kuroda!” at The Yankee U I argued that the struggles of Burnett and Vazquez should lead the Yankees to try to acquire Kuroda for the stretch run and the playoffs. He possess decent strikeout stuff, but also keeps the ball on the ground like few other pitchers. The Yankees passed on him at the time, and weren’t able to show any interest this offseason. It wouldn’t be wise to expect Kuroda to replicate a sub-3.50 FIP in the AL East. However, Kuroda is one of the more unknown and underrated pitchers in baseball. His 4.0 fWAR in 2010 represents value equivalent to bigger and flashier names like Mat Latos, Tommy Hanson, Ricky Romero and even Matt Cain. It’s water under the bridge now that Kuroda signed with Los Angeles for 1 year and $12.5M, but he’s a name to watch this season, especially if the Dodgers fall out of contention this summer.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
2010: 195 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 7.60 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 3.84 K/BB, 38.4 GB%.
2011 PECOTA projection: 134.7 IP, 3.88 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 7.60 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 2.90 K/BB, 42.3 GB%.
Going into the 2010 season it was hard to ancitipate what Shaun Marcum would bring to the the table for the rebuilding Blue Jays. Marcum missed the end of the 2008 season and most of the 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but was nevertheless named the Opening Day starter after the team dealt ace Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Marcum responded with a valiant effort on the year, giving the Jays nearly 200 innings of 3.74 FIP ball, and the Jays thanked him for his efforts by promptly sending him to Milwaukee for Brett Lawrie.
PECOTA isn’t particularly optimistic about Marcum in 2011. Performance-wise it expects him to maintain his strikeout stuff but lose some of the control he exhibited in 2010. More notably though it doesn’t see him logging more than 135 innings. For what it’s worth, Marcel projects a similar line for Marcum: 158 innings of 3.94 FIP ball with a 7.35 K/9 and a 2.45 BB/9. The Brewers have gone all in for 2011, acquiring Zack Greinke and Marcum to complement budding ace Yovani Gallardo in an attempt to win now. Prince Fielder is scheduled to hit free agency after this season, and Greinke is only under contract for one year after that. Whether the Brewers are able to outperform the Reds and the Cardinals and return to the playoffs will hinge partly on whether Marcum can outperform these low IP projections and stay healthy this season.
Carl Pavano, RHP, Minnesota Twins
2010: 221 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 4.76 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 3.16 K/BB, 51.2 GB%.
2011 PECOTA projection: 102.7 IP, 4.22 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 5.20 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 2.68 K/BB, 47.1 GB%.
As painful as it is to include Pavano’s name in a list like this, the fact remains that the Yankees pursued him this offseason, going so far as to discuss a sign-and-trade with the Diamondbacks for the right-hander. Pavano profiles somewhat similarly to Kuroda by featuring a low walk rate and inducing tons of ground balls. Pavano still had a very good 2010 campaign, and the Twins brought him back on a two year deal worth roughly $16M.
PECOTA isn’t optimistic about Pavano’s ability to stay healthy. Join the club, PECOTA. Join the club. It also sees Pavano registering a relatively higher strikeout rate and ground-ball rate in 2011. There are limits to what projection systems can see, though, and this is a good example. Fangraphs’ Dave Allen profiled Pavano a few weeks ago, noting that the increase in Pavano’s ground-ball rate was probably related to the increase in ground balls that Pavano was getting on his slider, going from 37.5 GB% to nearly 60% on the pitch. This is based on Pavano locating his slider further low and away, and if he continues to pitch in this manner he may remain a heavy groundball and light strikeout pitcher in 2011. However, he may not receive the level of infield defense to which he’s become accustomed, given the departures of JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson. It’s possible that some of those groundballs will find their way through the infield with greater frequency in 2011.
Zack Greinke, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
2010: 220 IP, 4.17 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 7.40 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 46.0 GB%.
2011 PECOTA projection: 179 IP, 3.52 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 8.30 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 44.0 GB%.
It isn’t surprising that Zack Greinke wasn’t able to replicate his insane 2009 level of performance in 2010, but he still managed to pitch very well. In 2011 PECOTA is essentially splitting the difference between his 2009 and 2010 campaigns. He’s projected to strike out more than 2010, but also walk more than he did in both 2009 and 2010. It also sees his slight increase in ground-balls largely holding in 2011. If the Brewers are able to get this level of performance alongside Yovani Gallardo they ought to contend for the NL Central this year.
The Yankees considered trading for Greinke this offseason, and even went so far as to discuss trade proposals with the Royals. The Royals asked the Yankees for Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez, and informed the Yankees that Greinke was willing to waive his no-trade clause to come to New York. The Yankees declined. Oddly, the reason wasn’t the asking price in prospects. As Craig Calcaterra and others reported, the Yankees didn’t believe that Greinke was a good fit for New York. If the Brewers are able to reach the playoffs in 2011, it will be very interesting to see how Greinke performs under pressure.
What’s done is done. The Yankees tried their best to bolster their rotation this offseason, but for a plethora of reasons were unable to land their desired targets. Hope springs eternal, though, and tomorrow we’ll take a look at some potential trade targets and their PECOTA projections.
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