Severino and Judge crack Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list

Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)
Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)

On Thursday night, Baseball America released their annual top 100 prospects list during a live MLB Network broadcast. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant claimed the top spot and was followed in order by Twins OF Byron Buxton, Cubs SS Addison Russell, Astros SS Carlos Correa, and Dodgers SS Corey Seager. The full top 100 can be seen right here.

The Yankees landed two players in the top 100 and they’re two players you expect: RHP Luis Severino ranks 35th and OF Aaron Judge ranks 53rd. Interestingly enough, Baseball America ranked Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada tenth during the television broadcast, but he isn’t on their online list. I can’t remember them ever ranking an unsigned player before.

Anyway, in the subscriber-only report, Baseball America gave Severino a 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) for both his fastball and changeup. He received a 60 for his control and a 50 for his slider. (50 is average, 60 is above-average, 70 is well-above-average.) Judge received a 70 for power, a 55 for his arm, and 50s for his hit tool, speed, and defense. Five average or better tools is really, really good.

Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com ranked Judge as the 23rd, 49th, and 68th best prospect in baseball, respectively. Those three plus Baseball America’s ranking average out to 48th overall. Severino was ranked 23rd by MLB.com and 51st by Baseball Prospectus. (He didn’t make Law’s.) Those two rankings plus Baseball America’s average out to 36th overall. Two consensus top 50 prospects ain’t bad at all.

Update: In a supplemental piece, J.J. Cooper said 1B Greg Bird didn’t miss the top 100 by much.

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Yankees land seven players on FanGraphs’ top 200 prospects list

Bird. (Presswire)
Bird. (Presswire)

Over at FanGraphs yesterday, Kiley McDaniel posted his list of the top 200 — not the top 100, the top 200 (!) — prospects in baseball heading into the 2015 season. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant claims the top spot and is followed by Twins OF Byron Buxton and Cubs SS Addison Russell in the top three. At this point, it’s clear Bryant is the consensus top prospect in baseball with Buxton, last year’s No. 1, right behind him.

The Yankees landed seven players in the top 200. Here’s the list with a short quote from McDaniel’s write-up:

  • RHP Luis Severino (No. 26): “He’s quickly improved and developed starter traits, but on certain days the stuff, command and delivery may all look more like a reliever.”
  • OF Aaron Judge (No. 58): “He’ll be 23 in Double-A next year and that will give us a better idea of if he’s a solid everyday guy or a potential star, but there’s clearly more here than people were expecting.”
  • LHP Jacob Lindgren (No. 100): “(He’s) now knocking on the door of the big leagues with closer level stuff and just enough of the feel from his starter days to spot his hellacious slider where he wants it.”
  • SS Jorge Mateo (No. 102): “(He) has top-of-the-scale 80 speed, has the tools to stick at shortstop, has surprising pop and was hanging with pitches three or four years older than him.”
  • 1B Greg Bird (No. 120): “Bird has plus power and good plate discipline, with some comparing him to a non-injury-prone Nick Johnson.”
  • LHP Ian Clarkin (No. 137): “His velocity has settled near the high end of where it was pre-draft and his above average to plus curveball is still the separator, with his changeup and command making good progress.”

2B Rob Refsnyder is the seventh prospect, but the bottom 58 players of the top 200 are not ranked and are instead listed as honorable mentions, basically. It’s kinda interesting McDaniel ranked Bird as the team’s third best prospect behind Severino and Lindgren last month, but now he’s fifth behind Severino, Judge, Lindgren, and Mateo. Eh, whatever.

I’m biased, so what the hell do I know, but I find it very hard to believe there are 200 prospects in the minors right now better than C Gary Sanchez. I get people are down on him, but a catcher with his arm and that much offensive upside is a pretty valuable prospect. Especially when they’ve had success at Double-A before their 22nd birthday. Not top 100? Okay. But not top 200? C’mon now.

Judge and Severino make Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 prospects

Severino and Judge, again. (Presswire)
Severino and Judge, again. (Presswire)

Earlier today, Baseball Prospectus released their list of the top 101 prospects in baseball heading into the 2015 season. The list is free but the scouting reports are behind the pay wall. Twins OF Byron Buxton sits in the top spot and is followed by Cubs SS Addison Russell and Astros SS Carlos Correa in the top three. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant ranks fifth, the lowest you’ll see him on a top 100 list this spring.

The Yankees have two players in the top 101 and they’re just about side-by-side in the rankings: OF Aaron Judge ranks 49th and RHP Luis Severino ranks 51st. Judge is the 11th outfielder on the list and Severino is the 25th pitcher (19th right-hander) on the list. C Gary Sanchez ranked third on Baseball Prospectus’ top ten Yankees prospects list a few weeks ago but did not make the top 101.

Judge ranked 23rd on Keith Law’s top 100 and 68th on MLB.com’s top 100, so add in Baseball Prospectus and his average ranking this spring has been 47th overall. Severino ranked 23rd on MLB.com’s list but he did not appear on Law’s list. Baseball America is scheduled to release their top 100 prospects list next Thursday and based on everything they’ve written these last few weeks and months, it’s safe to say Severino and Judge will make the list, in that order.

Judge, Severino, Bird, Lindgren, Refsnyder headline Spring Training invitees list

Refsnyder. (MiLB.com)
Refsnyder. (MiLB.com)

Two weeks from tomorrow, pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa for the start of Spring Training 2015. Baseball’s getting closer, folks. On Thursday, the Yankees officially announced their list of Spring Training invitees, a list that runs 66 (!) players deep.

As a reminder, everyone on the 40-man roster automatically goes to big league Spring Training, because duh. Here’s the 40-man roster and here are the 26 non-40-man roster players who have been invited to big league camp, which include some of the Yankees’ top prospects:

POSITION PLAYERS
C Francisco Arcia
C Trent Garrison
C Juan Graterol
C Kyle Higashioka
C Eddy Rodriguez
1B Greg Bird
1B Kyle Roller
IF Cito Culver
IF Cole Figueroa
IF Jonathan Galvez
IF Nick Noonan
IF Rob Refsnyder
OF Jake Cave
OF Slade Heathcott
OF Aaron Judge

PITCHERS
RHP Andrew Bailey
RHP Scott Baker
RHP Jose Campos
RHP Nick Goody
LHP Jacob Lindgren
RHP Diego Moreno
LHP James Pazos
RHP Wilking Rodriguez
RHP Nick Rumbelow
RHP Luis Severino
LHP Tyler Webb

Obviously the biggest names here are Judge, Bird, Severino, Refsnyder, and Lindgren, five of the team’s very best prospects. Lindgren, the Yankees’ top pick in last year’s draft, has a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day roster. So does Refsnyder, but he has more bodies ahead of him on the depth chart. I can’t see any scenario in which Judge, Severino, or Bird make the roster out of camp.

Bailey has been rehabbing from shoulder capsule surgery for nearly two years now and appears to finally be healthy. Could he step in and close with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller working as setup men? Bailey has closer experience, you know. Graterol, Figueroa, Galvez, Noonan, Baker, and the two Rodriguezes were added a minor league free agents for depth this winter. The rest are farm system products. Guys looking to put themselves on the map for a midseason call-up.

Teams always need extra catchers to help catch all those early-Spring Training bullpen sessions, which is why the Yankees are bringing five non-roster backstops to camp in addition to the four catchers already on the 40-man roster. The last bullpen spot is up for grabs — it could be more than one if Adam Warren and/or Esmil Rogers are needed to help the rotation — so camp is a big opportunity for these pitchers, especially guys like Rumbelow, Webb, Goody, and Pazos, who aren’t top prospects.

Severino, Judge make MLB.com’s top 100 prospects list

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

It’s prospect season, and on Friday night, the gang at MLB.com released their top 100 prospects list for the 2015 season. Twins OF Byron Buxton sits in the top spot despite his injury plagued 2014 campaign, and is followed by Cubs 3B Kris Bryant and Astros SS Carlos Correa in the top three. The Yankees had two players in the top 100: RHP Luis Severino (No. 23) and OF Aaron Judge (No. 68).

“Severino has a loose, quick arm that makes up for his lack of physicality. It allows him to maintain a mid-90s fastball throughout his starts and reach a peak velocity of 99 mph,” said the write-up. “Severino’s fading changeup gives him a second plus pitch, and he’s not afraid to throw it. His slider is more of a work in progress but should become at least an average third offering.” The MLB.com crew says they believe Severino can remain a starter long-term, for what it’s worth. There’s a healthy debate about that.

MLB.com calls Judge “one of the most physically imposing prospects in baseball” thanks to his 6-foot-7, 230 lb. frame. “He has huge raw power, though he’s content for now to use a shorter stroke and the entire field, working counts and producing line drives,” says the write-up. “A more advanced hitter than expected, he currently projects to bat .275 with 20-25 homers per season but could produce more power (and hit for less average) if he becomes more aggressive and turns on more pitches.” Again, Judge’s biggest flaw is that he hasn’t yet learned how to fully tap into his power potential.

In addition to the top 100, MLB.com also released top ten prospects lists for each position. Severino ranks seventh among right-handed pitchers, 1B Greg Bird ranks third among first basemen, and 2B Rob Refsnyder ranks seventh among second basemen. Judge didn’t make the deep outfield group and C Gary Sanchez fell short on the catcher’s list. Others like C Luis Torrens, 3B Miguel Andujar, 3B Eric Jagielo, RHP Domingo German, and LHP Ian Clarkin are good prospects, but not yet top ten at their position.

As always, MLB.com’s rankings are free, and they include full scouting reports and tools grades on the 20-80 scale. Their rankings are always a little off the beaten path — they seem to be more performance-based than anything — but it’s a great resource either way. Everything’s free and all in one place. In the coming weeks MLB.com will release top 30 prospects lists for each team — their lists used to only run 20 players deep, so they added an extra ten this year — though specific dates are not set yet.

Aaron Judge tops Keith Law’s top ten Yankees prospects

Judge in the Arizona Fall League. (Presswire)
Judge in the Arizona Fall League. (Presswire)

One day after releasing his top 100 prospects list, Keith Law published his top ten prospects for each team on Friday. Here is the index and here is the Yankees list. The individual team lists are Insider only. Here is New York’s top ten:

  1. OF Aaron Judge (No. 23 on the top 100)
  2. 1B Greg Bird (No. 80 on the top 100)
  3. C Gary Sanchez
  4. RHP Luis Severino
  5. OF Tyler Austin
  6. SS Jorge Mateo
  7. RHP Domingo German
  8. LHP Ian Clarkin
  9. C Luis Torrens
  10. 3B Eric Jagielo

Also, based on the write-up, we know 2B Rob Refsnyder, 3B Miguel Andujar, LHP Jacob Lindgren, SS Tyler Wade, RHP Brady Lail, and RHP Ty Hensley are prospects 11-16. Law is lower on Severino and higher on Austin than most, but otherwise the top ten (top 16, really) seems pretty straight forward. No major surprises. You could argue someone should be a spot higher or whatever, but it’s not worth it.

With Stephen Drew in Refsnyder’s way at second base, Law lists Lindgren as the mostly likely prospect to have an impact in 2015. OF Mason Williams is the “fallen” prospect, the guy who was once one of the best in the game but is now an afterthought. Law’s sleeper for the Yankees is Mateo, who he says is “so well-regarded in the industry that other teams have already targeted him in trade talks.” He adds that Mateo has “tremendous tools, is an 80 runner and plus fielder who shows above-average raw power in BP.”

The Yankees have a very position player heavy farm system right now — seven of Law’s top ten and nine of his top 12 are position players — and that’s a good thing because quality position players are hard to find these days. Even better, several of those position players will be at Double-A or higher this coming season, including Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Austin, Jagielo, and Refsnyder. There’s a clear path for some of those guys to get MLB at-bats in the next year or two, and the team’s apparent commitment to getting younger means they’re going to get a chance. That’s exciting.

Severino could help in 2015, but Yankees shouldn’t count on him making an immediate impact

(Trenton Thunder)
(Trenton Thunder)

At this point it goes without saying the Yankees have some major injury risks in their rotation heading into next season. We’ve been talking about it all winter. CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Masahiro Tanaka were all hurt for significant periods of time last year and Ivan Nova is still on the mend from Tommy John surgery. There’s no way to feel comfortable with this group from a health standpoint.

Of course, the Yankees did actually deal with a ton of rotation injuries last year, and they were still able to cobble together a decent staff. At one point five of the six best starters in the organization (Sabathia, Pineda, Tanaka, Nova, David Phelps) were all on the disabled list, yet Brian Cashman & Co. dug up a Chris Capuano here, found a Brandon McCarthy there, and made it work. Even with the injuries, the rotation had the fourth highest fWAR in baseball (14.9). It helps that no one can hit anymore.

As with Shane Greene last summer, the Yankees will inevitably have to dip into their minor league pitching reserves at some point this summer, and it appears Bryan Mitchell is first in line for a call-up after making his MLB debut last year. Chances are the team will need more than one fill-in starter though. That’s just baseball. Getting through a season using only five or six starters never happens these days. Add in the Tanaka, Sabathia, and Pineda injury risk and the Yankees are even more likely than most to need extra starters.

New York’s top prospect heading into the 2015 season is soon-to-be 21-year-old right-hander Luis Severino, who is the team’s best right-handed pitching prospect since pre-2008 Joba Chamberlain. In their midseason updates, Baseball America and MLB.com ranked Severino as the 34th and 62nd best prospect in baseball, respectively, and he’s only climbed further up those rankings since. You will find no argument that he is one of the top pitching prospects in all the land.

The Yankees have very clearly put Severino on the fast track — he made 14 starts for Low-A Charleston, four for High-A Tampa, and six for Double-A Trenton in 2014 — and there’s little reason to think they’ll slow him down now. I don’t expect him to start the season with Triple-A Scranton but he’ll be there soon enough, likely by May or at the latest June. Once he’s there, it’s only a matter of time before he gets the call to the show. The Yankees usually don’t let their top pitching prospects spend much time in Triple-A. It’s just a quick stop on the way to MLB.

There is a very clear path for Severino to join the big league team at some point in 2015, likely around midseason after a last little bit of token fine-tuning in the minors. His performance speaks for itself — he had a 2.46 ERA (2.40 FIP) at those three levels last year — but we can’t forget there is more to prospecting that stats. Severino himself admitted he needs to improve his command of the outer half of the plate and the consistency of his slider at MLB’s Rookie Development Camp recently. Here, look:

Improving location and the consistency of his breaking ball are real issues Severino has to address and things that can be improved and worked on in the minors, where wins and losses don’t matter. Severino might be able to get by without pitching to both sides of the plate or by hanging a bunch of sliders against minor leaguers, but the big leagues are unforgiving. Execution is more important than potential.

Even if Severino does master the outside corner and learn how to throw his slider where he wants, when he wants, there is still the issue of his workload. Severino threw 44 innings plus some unknown amount in Extended Spring Training in 2013 and then 113.1 total innings in 2015. That puts him on track for what, 150 innings in 2015? Maybe 160 if you really want to push it? Perhaps that will be enough — Greene threw 145 innings last year, but only after that weird April in which he went up-and-down a bunch of times and never really pitched (6.1 total innings in April — but more than likely it only makes Severino a temporary solution until he has to be shut down.

The workload is just something the Yankees and Severino will have to deal with. I hope they have learned from the Joba fiasco in late-2009 and will simply shut young pitchers down when they approach their innings limit rather than try something silly like 35-pitch starts or something like that. (My goodness that was such a mess.) There are innings Severino will be able to contribute to the big league team before the shutdown, but only a finite amount, and the quality of those innings is a total unknown.

A quick search shows 40 instances (featuring 31 different players) of a pitcher age 21 or younger starting at least five games in a season for an AL team since the turn of the century, and, of those 40, only 17 had a league average or better ERA. Just four have done it since 2007. Here’s the list. It’s not often pitchers this young get a somewhat extended shot in MLB, and those who do are rarely more than serviceable. It’s one thing if the Yankees call up Severino in 2015. It’s another if they call him up hoping he makes an impact rather than simply allowing him to get his feet wet.

Believe me, I would love nothing more than to see the Yankees bring up a hotshot pitching prospect and have him dominate this coming season. And with all due respect to Greene, I don’t mean someone like him. Someone like Severino, who is among the best pitching prospects in the game and could be a rotation fixture for years to come. That would be amazing. I don’t see how anyone could realistically expect that though. Severino might get a chance to help the Yankees in 2015, but if it comes in a spot where they need him to make a difference, he’ll be coming up under the wrong circumstances.