Archives for 2013

Prospect Profile: Nik Turley

January 10, 2013 by Mike 53 Comments

MiLB: APR 5 - Flying Tigers at Yankees — (Mark LoMoglio/MiLB.com)

Background
Hailing from North Hollywood, Turley attended Harvard-Westlake High School and was committed to Brigham Young University. He comes from a family of athletes, as both parents and three brothers all played sports at the collegiate level. His father pitched at BYU once upon a time.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Turley as the 83rd best prospect in California prior to the 2008 draft, but because he’s a Mormon, teams expected him to follow through on his college commitment and go on a two-year mission. The Yankees rolled the dice and selected him in the 50th round with the 1,502nd overall pick, making him the third-to-last player chosen in the entire draft. Turley wound up signing relatively quickly for a well-above-slot $150k bonus.

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The Obligatory Ronnie Mustelier Post

January 10, 2013 by Mike 50 Comments

The bench, particularly a right-handed hitting outfielder, and the DH spot have been the Yankees’ primary areas of focus these last few weeks and that will probably continue until pitchers and catchers report in five weeks. The free agent market still has several DH-type players available and the club does have Matt Diaz, Russ Canzler, and Melky Mesa in-house as candidates for that right-handed outfield bat role. They also have a fourth internal option in Ronnie Mustelier, who Michael Eder at The Yankee Analysts wrote about this week and a number of people have emailed me about these last few months. I figured it was time to chime in.

First things first, we have to understand that we know very little about Mustelier. We do know that he defected from Cuba in late-2009 and signed with the Yankees in June 2011 thanks to Matt Eddy at Baseball America. We also know that he turned 28 this past August, hit .301/.407/.517 in Cuba from 2007-2009, and is a career .324/.378/.497 hitter across four minor league levels because that’s what Baseball–Reference tells us. He doesn’t have a platoon split according to Minor League Central, and his overall strikeout rate (13.0%) is pretty great in 656 minor league plate appearances. We have to remember that he was old for every level, however. Mustelier’s a right-handed hitter who has played second and third bases as well as both outfield corners since signing with New York. The vast majority of his 2012 season was spent in left. If MiLB.com’s bio information is to be trusted, we also know he’s a little portly at 5-foot-10 and 210 lbs.

That’s pretty much it. The closest thing we have to an actually scouting report on Mustelier is this collection of quotes from VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman back in early-October (Baseball America subs. req’d)…

“He has a very short stroke and pretty good balance … He strikes out once in every seven at-bats. His walks are below-average but he puts the ball in play … He played third, second, left and right … We are trying to find out where his best defensive position is and what our needs are … He can run and cover ground … He can also play right. He improved defensively over the course of the season.”

Within that same link we learn the Yankees signed Mustelier for just $50k, a pittance compared to most Cuban defectors. You have to take an organization’s quotes on its own players with a big grain of salt because of course they’re going to talk the guy up. Newman’s stuff on Mustelier isn’t outrageous though, it’s not like he called him a plus defender with elite bat speed or something. That would have been a little weird given the modest signing bonus, which indicates little interest from around the league.

Baseball America’s John Manuel offered up his take on Mustelier during the publication’s Top 20 Triple-A International League Prospects chat back in early-October (subs. req’d)…

I see him as a player for a potential Cuban ex-pat team in the WBC. I do not see him as an MLB option. Guys like Mustelier and Barbaro Canizares and Leslie Anderson and other Cuban ex-pats can make a good living in professional baseball outside of the major leagues, but he doesn’t strike me as a player with a position outside of the batter’s box. He does have bat speed and he can hit a good fastball. Maybe that gets him a chance.

So that’s pretty much it. Those last few paragraphs are basically all we know about Mustelier at this point. He’s performed very well since signing but has been old for the level each time. He offers some defensive versatility, but he probably fits best in left field based on how the organization used him. The fact that the Yankees did not stick Mustelier back at third base — they did move David Adams over to third, remember — following Alex Rodriguez’s hand injury in the second half tells me they don’t think he can handle the position in the big leagues, even on a temporary basis. It’s not like the team had a real prospect at the hot corner in Triple-A at the time, it was basically Brandon Laird and Kevin Russo. Actions always speak louder than words.

Now, that said, the Yankees should obviously give Mustelier a long look in Spring Training in a few weeks. He received all of two plate appearances in big league camp last year, one fewer than Austin Krum and half as many as Walt Ibarra. Mustelier just wrapped up a strong winter ball showing — .284/.345/.471 with nine homers and nine steals in 55 games down in Mexico — and finished the 2012 calendar year with a combined .304/.364/.482 batting line in over 700 plate appearances in three different leagues (Double-A, Triple-A, winter ball). When a guy that close to the big leagues hits like that, he deserves a look in camp. I definitely expect the Yankees to invite him to Major League Spring Training, for what it’s worth.

At the same time, a guy like Mustelier should not stop the team from pursuing solutions for those openings on the bench and at DH. It obviously hasn’t given the Matt Diaz and Russ Canzler pickups, but I’m talking about legitimate upgrades like Mike Morse or Scott Hairston. The Yankees should give him a look in camp to see what he can do, maybe he lost some weight and improved defensively during the offseason and made himself a viable option at second and third bases. Who knows. He’s earned the look though. Mustelier is not on the 40-man roster right now and the club won’t have to add him for another few years, so there’s no pressing roster issue that will force their hand. At the moment, Mustelier is an intriguing Plan B or C to keep in the minors. I wouldn’t want him to be Plan A for anything heading into 2013.

Aside: For what it’s worth, SG’s extremely early CAIRO projections have Mustelier as a .268/.321/.420 hitter in the big leagues next season. That’s really good for a bench player but not for a DH, which is where he’s slotted into the lineup in the projections.

Wednesday Night Open Thread

January 9, 2013 by Mike 164 Comments

Bullpen phones didn’t need fixin’, but MLB went and fixed ’em anyway. The league and T-Mobile have announced an agreement that eliminates land lines and makes calls to the bullpen a wireless experience. The system will work on a closed network, and it’s only a matter of time before some manager loses his bullpen phone and things go haywire. I will shamelessly admit I’m rooting for that. The docks for these new bullpen phones can be seen here. Apparently some corporation will have to step forward with a sponsorship before the game is improved in a meaningful way, such as expanded replay.

Anyway, here is your open thread for the evening. Neither of the basketball locals are in action, so you’re on your own for entertainment. Talk about whatever you like here. Enjoy.

Yanks rank 11th in Baseball America’s preliminary farm system rankings

January 9, 2013 by Mike

Earlier this week, Baseball America’s Jim Callis published his personal list of baseball’s top ten farm systems. He had the Cardinals in the top spot, following by the Mariners and Marlins. No real surprises there.

In a follow-up question on Twitter, Callis said he and the publication’s other three contributing editors each ranked the Yankees’ system as the 11th best in baseball. I figured they would rank somewhere in the middle-third, but I honestly through it would be closer to 15th or so. Few teams have a quartet on par with OF Mason Williams, OF Slade Heathcott, OF Tyler Austin, and C Gary Sanchez though, so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. Baseball America’s official organization rankings are released during Spring Training.

The 2013 Hall of Fame Class: [null]

January 9, 2013 by Mike 235 Comments

Hall of Fame podium — No use for the podium this year. (Photo via WLWT Cincinnati)

The greatest hitter and the greatest pitcher many of us will ever see were on the ballot, but that didn’t matter. The BBWAA elected a total of zero players to Hall of Fame this year, the first time that’s happened since 1996. Craig Biggio led the voting with 68.2%, but players must receive 75% for enshrinement. Tim Raines (52.2%), Roger Clemens (37.6%), Don Mattingly (13.2%), Bernie Williams (3.3%), Kenny Lofton (3.2%), David Wells (0.9%), Mike Stanton (0%), and Rondell White (0%) represent the crop of former Yankees on the ballot. Players receiving less than 5% of the vote drop off the ballot next year. Full voting results are available at the BBWAA’s official site.

Given the overwhelmingly deep ballot, it’s pretty ridiculous no players will be inducted this year. Beyond Barry Bonds and Clemens you have absolute no-brainers like Mike Piazza (greatest hitting catcher of all-time!), Craig Biggio, and Jeff Bagwell. I count no fewer than 15 players on the ballot who, at the very least, deserve serious consideration for the Hall. My personal and mythical ballot, seen on Twitter and included in this YES Network feature, was ten players deep. It would have been a dozen had the ballots not been capped at ten. Never really got that rule.

More than anything, this year’s lack of inductees confirms the voting has become more about the writers than the players. The Hall of Fame is a museum and an archive of the game first and foremost. We can’t exclude the parts people don’t like just because. There’s zero evidence (zero!) guys like Bonds, Clemens, and Piazza used PEDs. No failed drug tests, nothing. Suspicion does not equal guilt, yet the ballot this year shows the BBWAA is treating these players as guilty until proven innocent. How someone would go about proving they didn’t use something, a PED or otherwise, is beyond me. Nevermind that the burden of proof falls on those making the accusations.

Anyway, the already overcrowded ballot will get even more crowded next winter when players like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, and former Yankee Mike Mussina will be Hall of Fame eligible for the first time. If they don’t change the rule and allow writers to vote for more than ten players in a given year, the voting process is going to be a cluttered nightmare in the coming years. For now, we get an empty 2013 class and a nine-month reprieve until the next ballot is announced and the same inane arguments begin again.

McCarron: Yankees have checked in on Grady Sizemore

January 9, 2013 by Mike 75 Comments

Via Anthony McCarron: The Yankees are one of several teams to check in on free agent Grady Sizemore according to his agent, Joe Urbon. Urbon recently told Ken Rosenthal that his client won’t sign until he’s ready to play again, which probably won’t be until midseason.

Sizemore, 30, was a bonafide superstar from 2005-2008, but injuries (knee, elbow, back, wrist, hernia) have since derailed his career. He had right knee surgery in September and has not appeared in a big league game since September 2011. When he has been on the field, he’s hit just .234/.314/.413 (96 wRC+) since the start of the 2009 season (81 wRC+ since 2010). There’s no such thing as a bad minor league deal, but I would bet against Sizemore ever being a productive big leaguer again.

Scouting The Trade Market: Mike Morse

January 9, 2013 by Mike 105 Comments

Early yesterday afternoon, we learned the Nationals agreed to re-sign Adam LaRoche to a new two-year contract. The move essentially pushed Mike Morse out of the team’s plans, as his primary positions — outfield (Denard Span, Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth) and first base (LaRoche) — are now occupied by players who aren’t going anywhere. Shortly after the LaRoche news broke, Ken Rosenthal reported Washington was discussing Morse in trades with several teams. Shortly after that, we learned the Yankees have interest in acquiring him.

The fit is obvious. Morse, 30, is a right-handed hitter with power who is signed for just one more year at an affordable $6.75M. He’ll become a free agent next offseason. The Yankees need a bat and have been fixated on one-year contracts all winter, and Morse fits both bills. Given the Nationals’ reported asking price — a left-handed reliever and prospects/pitching depth — the Yankees would be hard-pressed to find a better trade fit. Before we move any further, let’s break down Morse’s game just so we all understand what he brings to the table and where his game is lacking.

The Pros

Morse offers big time power from the right side. He hit 18 homers in 102 games last season and 31 homers in 146 games a year ago. Nationals Park is perfectly neutral when it comes to right-handed homers according to the park factors at FanGraphs, so Morse’s power production was not inflated by his ballpark. Over the last three years, he owns a .220 ISO and a 21.3% (!) HR/FB rate.
Late Update: I neglected to mention this, but Michael Eder at The Yankee Analysts bailed me out. Morse does a lot of damage to the opposite field, which fits very well for a right-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium.
Morse does not have a platoon split at all. He’s hit .296/.344/.512 (133 wRC+) against righties and .294/.349/.517 (136 wRC+) against lefties over the last three years. He managed a 117 wRC+ against righties and a 102 wRC+ against lefties in 2012, but there are some sample size issues with the latter (barely 100 plate appearances).
In nearly 1,700 career plate appearances, Morse owns a .344 BABIP (.339 since 2010). It’s not a fluke at this point. He’s a ground ball (48.4% last three years) and line drive (18.9%) hitter, which tends to result a lot of base hits. Unsurprisingly, Morse is a career .295 hitter in the show (.296 last three years).
Morse does offer some positional flexibility. He came up as a shortstop with the Mariners (despite being 6-foot-5), but that didn’t last and he’s since settled in as a corner outfielder/first baseman. DH is also an option as well, obviously.
As I said before, Morse is owed just $6.75M next year and will become a free agent after the season. By acquiring him this offseason, his new team would be able to make a qualifying offer next winter and receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere. A midseason trade doesn’t allow that.

The Cons

Morse’s plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. He’s walked in just 5.7% of his plate appearances over the last three seasons, including 3.7% (!) in 2012. His strikeout (22.1%) and contact (75.5%) rates are both well-below-average during that time, ditto his miniscule 3.69 pitches per plate appearances average. Quick at-bats are not the Yankee Way™, but that’s what you’re getting here.
He’s no stranger to the DL. Morse missed most of Spring Training and the first two months of last season with a right shoulder strain, and in 2010 he missed a month with a calf problem. Morse also missed the entire 2008 season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder, and two years before that he missed a few weeks with right knee surgery.
The ground ball tendencies became quite extreme last season. Morse posted a 55.3% grounder rate in 2012 after sitting at 44.8% from 2010-2011. That explains the .190 ISO, which was his lowest full season mark since his rookie year in 2005. When a power hitter has a shoulder problem and suddenly has a tough time lifting the ball in the air, it’s a red flag.
Morse offers zero speed or value on the bases. He’s 6-for-12 in career stolen base attempts and has taken the extra-base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) just 33% of the time through the years. The league average is in the 39-40% range.
Morse is a bad defensive outfielder. The various metrics all agree he’s been a poor defender since finally breaking out as a full-time player three years ago: -24.5 UZR, -8 DRS, -2 Total Zone, and -3 FRAA. The first base metrics are a little better, but stats on first base defense aren’t as reliable as they are at the other positions.

The Yankees continue to seek a right-handed hitting outfielder to complement their all left-handed hitting outfield, but Morse is far too good for a platoon role. He’s not an Andruw Jones-esque bench player. Morse should be in the lineup against both righties and lefties on an everyday basis, preferably as the DH. If they have to stick him in right field twice a week to give some of the older guys time at DH, so be it. They lived with Raul Ibanez out there on an almost full-time basis last summer and he wasn’t nearly as good offensively (late-season super-clutch homers aside). Morse “strongly opposes” being a DH, but that’s not really his decision to make at this point of his career.

Like I said in the intro, the Nats are seeking a lefty reliever and prospects/pitching depth in return for Morse. That lines up with recent trades involving one year of similar hitters like Carlos Quentin (White Sox to Padres) and Josh Willingham (Nats to Athletics), so Washington isn’t being unreasonable. The Yankees have plenty of left-handed relievers to offer in a trade, that’s not an issue. Boone Logan’s name jumps out because he’ll be a free agent next winter like Morse, but c’mon, a lefty reliever shouldn’t be a dealbreaker. If the Nats want Clay Rapada (who is more effective against lefty hitters than Logan) or Cesar Cabral or Francisco Rondon instead, fine.

The rest of the package is where the haggling figures to happen. New York has some minor league pitching depth to dangle in Adam Warren, Brett Marshall, and Nik Turley, though Washington figures to push for Ivan Nova or David Phelps. Those two shouldn’t be off the table, but I think the Yankees would have to get something else back in addition to Morse. Maybe they could really expand the deal to include one of Washington’s catchers — Wilson Ramos or Kurt Suzuki. That’s a whole other can of worms I don’t want to worry about right now. The Yankees have plenty of competition because reports indicate several teams have interest in Morse, but I feel they have the pieces to get a deal done. It’s just a question of whether they’re willing to pull the trigger to acquire a player who fits their needs very well.