River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues ยป Jarrod Washburn

The fifth starters that weren’t

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Think back to July oh, say, 28th. The Yankees were streaking after the break, but still had a few holes to fill. Namely, adding another starter. With their preseason sixth starter, Phil Hughes, holding down the back end of the bullpen and with Chien-Ming Wang done for the season following shoulder surgery, the Yanks had but one in-house option for the fifth starter role: Sergio Mitre. Many fans weren’t happy with that, and clamored for Cashman to reel in another arm.

Leading into the trade deadline, there were a few names bandied about, but most were tossed out. By the time July 28th rolled around there were basically two options left: Jarrod Washburn and Brian Bannister. Neither was a perfect option, but both had been pitching better than what many expected from Mitre. So why not trade for one and see if he could fill the fifth starter role?

After a horrible 2008, Bannister had rebounded in the first half of 2009. After his start against the Orioles on July 28, Bannister held a 3.80 ERA and a .684 OPS against. As usual he hadn’t struck out many, just 72 in 116 innings, but he had allowed less than a hit an inning and had kept his walks in check. There were certainly concerns about his ability to sustain this success, but there were some indicators that he was worth the gamble.

At a $1.7 million salary for 2009, the remainder of Bannister’s contract was eminently affordable. In addition, he had just 2.158 years of service time heading into the season, and won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2012 season. Despite these factors, the Yankees turned away from a deal when Kansas City refused to eat the remainder of Banny’s 2009 salary. That might seem crazy for the Yankees, the richest franchise in baseball, but it’s what happened.

Washburn was a bit more interesting from a 2009 standpoint. He also pitched on July 28, spinning a seven-inning, one-run gem against the Blue Jays. That lowered his ERA to 2.64. For a guy who had been around a 4.50 ERA over the last three years, this was incredible. Some opined that the Mariners stellar defense was a big reason for Washburn’s rejuvenation, but there was an issue of a new pitch that was devastating opposing hitters. At the very worst, he’d probably be an upgrade over Mitre.

The issue of Washburn’s salary was a bit weightier than Bannister’s. Washburn is making $10.35 million this year, so even a third of that is a sizable sum on top of a payroll already over $200 million. On top of that, there was an issue of Seattle’s return on the deal. Reportedly they wanted Austin Jackson, which just wasn’t going to fly (though I suspect if Jackson’s name came up it involved Seattle picking up a good portion of Washburn’s salary).

In the end, the Yankees acquired neither. Instead they decided to go with Mitre in the fifth spot and see what came up in August. That yielded Chad Gaudin. While he didn’t come with the track record of Washburn or the success of Bannister, he represented a solid addition to the staff. That was all the Yanks did, and as it turns out it might have been the best possible tactic.

Washburn has been spectacularly bad in his six starts with the Tigers. He had one gem, an eight inning shutout against the Royals (the Royals) and a six-inning, three run performance against the Angels, but other than that has allowed five or more runs in his other four starts. His total line since joining Detroit’s playoff push:

37 IP, 41 H, 28 R & ER, 11 BB, 18 K, .924 OPS against, 6.81 ERA

Bannister has experienced a market correction since the calendar flipped to August. He started the month strong with seven innings of shutout ball against the Rays, which included seven strikeouts. After that he’s been downright atrocious. In five of those six starts he allowed four or more runs — including a stretch of three games in which he allowed seven runs. The only start in which he allowed fewer than four he allowed three in just 1.1 innings of work. His line since the Tampa Bay start:

31 IP, 42 H, 34 R, 32 ER, 11 BB, 19 K, .861 OPS against, 9.29 ERA

Just for comparison, Sergio Mitre’s line in seven starts this season (so not counting his relief appearance against Boston):

34.2 IP, 46 H, 23 R, 19 ER, 9 BB, 20 K, .801 OPS against, 4.93 ERA

So, just to be clear, Sergio Mitre, to this point, has pitched better as the Yankees fifth starter than both Jarrod Washburn and Brian Bannister have since the trade deadline. (Oh, and Banny’s hurt.) Brian Cashman caught his share of crap over the non-deals, and while it was tough to forecast exactly how bad Washburn and Bannister would be, it turns out, in hindsight, that no move was the best move.

Wanting Washburn

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The Yankees didn’t acquire a back-end starter like we expected when today’s non-waiver trade deadline came and went, but it wasn’t because of lack of effort. They’ve been connected to Brian Bannister of the Royals and more notably Jarrod Washburn of the Mariners, who ended up in MoTown this morning. While Seattle ultimately received a fringy starter (Luke French) and an okay prospect (Mauricio Robles), they were asking for much more than that initially.

Via Twitter, Joel Sherman notes that the Mariners asked the Yankees for an “Austin Jackson-level player” for Washburn, while the Brewers were told it would take Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, or Manny Parra, arguably their three best young players (non-Yovani Gallardo division). The Yanks balked at the Jackson price, submitted a list of players they were willing to give up, but never heard back from Seattle. I’m curious how deals like this evolve. I can understand asking for top prospects on the first pass, but how does a player end up with a third team for a package of nothing special while the two teams that were very interested end up empty handed? It’s just … odd.

Keeping up in the arms race

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Jarrod WashburnBefore we get into this post, let’s make something very clear: The Yankees are not moving Phil Hughes back into the rotation this year. It’s just not happening, no matter how much we want it to. They’ve expressed zero desire to take him out of the bullpen thus far, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. I don’t like it and you probably don’t like it either, but it’s just the way it is. And because of this, the Yankees are in need of another starting pitcher.

Oh sure, Sergio Mitre might do a splendid job filling in for the injured Chien-Ming Wang, and I sure hope he does. The problem is that at some point Joba Chamberlain is going to hit his innings limit (he’s at 95.2 IP right now), and of course there’s always the threat of an injury or two. The Yanks pitching depth is as stretched as stretched can be now that Ian Kennedy is recovering from an aneurysm while Hughes and Al Aceves have become bullpen staples. The team needs another arm to help take the load off the other guys, just because it’s better to be safe than sorry (plus we all hate Sidney Ponson). It doesn’t have to be a Roy Halladay-type (though it would be nice); someone like Jarrod Washburn would be just fine.

The Yanks were reportedly close to completing a deal for Washburn before last year’s deadline, but Seattle got greedy and overplayed their hand. Then-GM Bill Bavasi was fired over the winter and his replacement – former Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik – appears to have his head screwed on straight. The Mariners are just four games back in the division and five back for the Wild Card with the league’s third most favorable schedule ahead of them, so there’s a chance Washburn might not even be available at all. However if they tank between now and the deadline, expect the former Angels hurler to be shopped around a bit. A waiver wire deal could also be pulled off after July 31st should the M’s stay in contention passed next Friday.

As for Washburn, the deal makes more sense now than it did last season because he’s actually pitching, you know, effectively. Through his first 18 games last year he had a 4.83 ERA, a 4.37 FIP and a .817 OPS against, but those numbers have dropped to 2.87, 3.77 and .632 in ’09. And while that improvement is nice, it’s even nicer that there’s actual tangible evidence to support it, rather than the usual “maybe he just figured it out” shtick. Washburn’s added about a mile an hour to his heater and two miles an hour to his changeup this year, but the biggest adjustment is the incorporation of a two-seamer into his arsenal.

While he has done a swell job against southpaws in his career, righthanders have hit Washburn up for a .265-.323-.758 batting line. Those problems against righties were exacerbated last year when they pounded him to the tune of .299-.361-.504. The two-seamer has allowed Washburn to neutralize righties better than he has in some time (.252-.307-.382 this year), and he’s been death to lefties (.175-.211-.278). It’s a new pitch hitters haven’t seen before, and they’ve yet to adjust to it. His strikeout rate is up a tick, his walk rate is down nearly a full walk per nine innings, and his BABIP is touch low but not outrageous. The big difference between Washburn’s ERA and FIP can be explained by Seattle’s insanely good defense, particularly in the outfield since he’s a flyball pitcher.

Washburn will be a free agent in the offseason and is making $10.35M this year, so if Zduriencik decides to move him at the deadline he stands to save about $3.5M. Given how the Yanks had the Pirates pay half of Eric Hinke’s measly salary when they picked him up late last month, I don’t think it’s safe to assume the Bombers will just absorb that money. Regardless, I can’t imagine the M’s would expect a significant return since we’re still talking about a soon-to-be 35-yr old pitcher who hasn’t been above league average in four years. Think two low-level minor leaguers, neither of them significant prospects, and salary relief. Something along those lines. Probably the biggest obstacle in any deal for Washburn is his full no-trade clause. That’s just something you worry about when the time comes, but if he wants an extension, then forget it. Obviously.

What do you guys think? Should the Yanks make a move for Washburn to shore up the rotation, or hold off and go with what they have? Any other starters out there you’d like to see them kick the tires on (non-Halladay and Cliff Lee division)?

Photo Credit: Flickr user Saltimbanco

Yanks considered Matsui for Washburn

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Ken Rosenthal (via MLBTR) mentioned in his column today that the Yanks and Mariners talked briefly about a Hideki Matsui for Jarrod Washburn swap earlier this offseason, but couldn’t find a match because of the difference in salaries (Matsui’s owed $2.65M more than Washburn this year). I’m going to assume this discussion took place when it seemed like there was little chance Andy Pettitte would return, and perhaps even before the CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett pickups. You may remember that the Yanks were pretty close to acquiring the lefty before the trade deadline last year, but the M’s put a stop too the move because they wanted a top prospect in return.

I’ve been against trading Matsui because I think he’s more useful to the Yanks than anything they could get in return. Just look at Washburn, he kinda sorta qualifies as an innings eater – he’s averaged ~178 IP over the last three years – but he’s been below average during that time, posting between a 4.72 and 4.78 FIP and averaging +1.6 WAR (replacement level is set at two wins below league average, so Washburn was about half a win below average). With two bum knees, a full no trade clause and $13M coming to him, Matsui’s understandably not the most desirable trade target.

To the Yankees however, Matsui represents a bit of an upside play at DH. While dealing with knee issues that limited him to 287 of 486 possible games over the last three years, he hit .291-.372-.469 with a ~.365 wOBP. Do you know what Bobby Abreu hit last year? .296-.371-.471 with a .348 wOBP. It’s entirely reasonable to expect Matsui to replace Abreu’s production this year if he stays healthy, which he has a much better chance of doing as a DH.

Would it be nice to see a guy like Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn occupying the DH spot? Sure, but given the Yanks current roster construction that’s extremely unlikely. Let’s give Hit-deki a chance, he just might surprise us.

What do you take us for? A fool?

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According to Kat O’Brien, the Mariners must think the Yankees are complete and utter fools. A few days after acquiring Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for pennies on the dollar, the Mariners are holding back on dealing all of Jarrod Washburn’s contract to the Yanks because they want Hank Steinbrenner to step in and demand the Yanks acquire the starter. Clearly, the Mariners have not been paying attention. While Hanks is adept at running his mouth, all his words do are garner headlines. No moves or signings have been consummated or rushed after Hank issues his diatribes. It’s actually rather effective, and the Mariners are deluding themselves if they feel Hank is going to cause a sea change in thinking over Jarrod Washburn. MLBTR speculates that the M’s want Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera.

Washburn could be New York-bound shortly

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According to Jon Heyman, the Yanks and Mariners “may be close” on a deal to bring Jarrod Washburn to New York. The move would be a strict salary dump; the Yanks would take on all of Washburn’s contract and would not send anyone to Seattle. Washburn, a clear upgrade over Sidney Ponson or Darrell Rasner, is scheduled to start tomorrow afternoon’s Mariners-Blue Jay. So keep your eye on the game in Toronto; if Washburn is scratched or removed early, expect him in the Bronx sooner rather than later. We’ll wrap up today’s excellent 10-3 victory over the Red Sox later.

Update: Via MLBTR comes word that the M’s are holding up the deal because they want, according to Ken Rosenthal, a “top prospect.” They could probably draw out a prospect from the Yanks but not a top one in a salary dump. Keep your eye on tomorrow’s probables and the M’s-Jays game for more indications of a possible trade.

The Washburn deal won’t come easy

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As rumors continue to mount about a Jarrod Washburn-to-the-Yanks deal, a few developments late last night have me thinking that this won’t be a quick or easy deal. In fact, these sticking points could portend the collapse of a deal with a team notable for its unwillingness to trade. Ken Rosenthal reports that Washburn’s limited no-trade clause may complicate things. Jarrod could veto a deal to the Yanks, according to Rosenthal’s sources, and while one way to placate the lefty would be more cash, the Yanks aren’t going to be too willing to kick more money into Washburn after they pick up his hefty contract.

Meanwhile, Jon Heyman reports that the Mariners may want the Yankees to take Jose Vidro too. Vidro would be dead weight on the Yanks, and his contract complicates these talks as well. Of course, right now, this is all just rumor and conjecture from unnamed sources, but it goes a long way toward illustrated why we as a fanbase shouldn’t put too much stock into these various reports. The Yanks may be kicking the tires on Washburn, but it takes a lot more that interest to seal a deal when millions of dollars are at stake.