Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospects

January 31, 2008 by Mike Axisa 23 Comments

RAB fave Keith Law posted his Top 100 Prospects list over at the Worldwide Leader. Five Yankee farmshands made the list, led by Joba at #3, who was also the top ranked pitcher. Jose Tabata (#21), Austin Jackson (#24), IPK (#45) and Andrew Brackman (#100) followed suit. Check it out, if for no other reason than to learn about guys named Weglarz, Gorkys and Chorye.

Tony

Kevin Goldstein’s list is also out, while Law has Joba at third, Goldstein has him at 4th behind Buchholz, what is this guy thinking? JOBA is way better than Buchholz.
- Ivan
  
  Now you are being a homer.
- AJ
  
  Hahaha you sound about as smart as Keith Law.
Nefarious Jackson

Horne????
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.
  
  I can’t speak for Law, but I know he’s not the biggest Alan Horne fan in the world. I betcha he’s on BA’s Top 100 list though.
Yankee Fan in Chicago

Anyone else surprised to see how high Law is ranking prep kids from the 07 draft?

He has Porcello as the 5th best rh pitching prospect, eg. The kid’s never thrown a pitch as pro as far as I can tell, and is from the baseball poor NE, where it’s unlikely he was facing top talent. And Vitters at #17? Granted he’s very young and has only played 15 games as a pro, but he’s not exactly been hitting.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.
  
  Actually, Porcello is from Dirty Jerz. Went to the same HS as Eric Duncan.
  - Yankee Fan in Chicago
    
    Sorry, by the NE I meant Northeast, not that other place filled with pink-hatted Sawx lovers.
Bo

It’s the best prospects. It doesnt matter when they are signed or drafted.

And porcello from all reports is an ace in the making.
Bo

Joba is better. How is that being a homer?
- RollignWave
  
  it’s pretty damn close. either way around wouldn’t really be a huge stretch and really prospect list doesn’t mean a ton, the #100 guy could easily end up with a career better than the #1 guy, you really just never know for certain here how things turn out.
  
  Hell, we’d take a state load of prospect over the last 2 decade over Jamie Moyer, but he’s essentially beaten all non HOF + non Mussina guys in his career.
Ivan

Hey I pick Joba over Buchholz, but I wouldn’t say he’s way better than buchholz.
- Moose
  
  Bucholz is a very good picther whereas Joba is absolutely dominant. The only people who would prefer Bucholz over Joba are Bostonians.
  
  No reasonable baseball fan/analyst could possibly say Bucholz is the better of the two pitchers – he’s older, has a more susceptible delivery, throws softer, didn’t have as much success at the ML level, and has a more shady past (got busted stealing computers, haha, i know its not relevant, but its definitely funny as hell).
  
  Case closed. Veridct = Joba.
  
  P.S. I still dont see how IPK is always listed in the “middle of the pack” of up and coming “prospects.” The guy was already very successful at the ML level (below 3 ERA and good K/9 ratio) whereas 50% of these players might not even MAKE the ML level! I’m confused.
  - zack
    
    The thing about a prospect list is that it is looking at potential. IPK is in the middle b/c his potential isn’t near the potential of, well, half those guys,,,These types of lists are really only good for debating, because hey, things change and prospects come out of nowhere, look at Cano and Wang…
  - Rob_in_CT
    
    Joba, Buccholz… both are elite. One guy has them 3/4, the other has them 2/4. Pretty much every prospect list has them very high and close. Arguing about it is splitting hairs. As for Buccholz not having as much success at the big-league level… what are you talking about? The kid threw a no-hitter, you know (before you put up a list of no-hitters by pitchers who never were anything, please note Buccholz’s minor league stats – this guy is for real). They were both rather impressive in the majors. I don’t see how anyone can seriously argue that one is CLEARLY better than the other.
    
    …
    
    Fun Q/A from the Goldstein chat at BP:
    
    mbring (Saint Cloud, MN): We all know the A’s got more for Haren than the Twins did for Santana. But did they get more than the Twins in the Swisher trade as well?
    
    Kevin Goldstein: Excellent question! Or at least current, as I had discussions like this with a handfull of team officials yesterday. I do know people inside the game who would rather have the Swisher package than the Santana package, but it was almost universal, that teams would rather have Philip Hughes alone, as opposed to the four now-former Mets.
    - steve (different one)
      
      i prefer Joba over Buch….hey where are you going with my computer?!!
      - Moose
        
        hahah, true story, I sware to God. You know that’s gonna come back to haunt him some day. I can’t wait to see the first NY fan who throws a computer at Bucholz or something. Who knows, might even be me…
bill

Jacob Mcgee at #26, behind Davis? Don’t like that at all. Desmond Jennings at #11? interesting ranking from Law is all I can say.
Jeff

Wouldn’t it be awesome if you got a shitload of yankee fans to pick up some used laptops and litter the streets around Fenway on a day that he pitches? You’d need to fill up a dump truck and unload them.
Mike R.

Ok. I am mostly nitpicking, but:

1- “The Tampa Bay Rays lead all teams with nine players in the top 100. Texas is second with six, and Boston and the Dodgers each placed five players on the list.”
The Yankees also placed 5 on the list. Why no mention?

2-Martinez #10?? Really?? Better than Andrew McCutchen? Better than Cameron Maybin?

3- “I consider a number of factors when ranking prospects, including ceiling, probability, expected time to reach the majors and expected time to become contributors in the majors”
Rick Porcello has a huge ceiling, but to rank him the fifth best RHP is a bit much in my opinion. He can’t be too high up on any of the other criteria.
- RollignWave
  
  I think Law’s reasonablly consistent . but F-mart is a tad high.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.
  
  I don’t have a problem with Martinez at 10. It’s a matter of preference, and Martinez’s bat is one of the very best in the minors. I’ve been saying it for a while now, but he’s the next Carlos Lee, and the plate and the buffet table.
Jim Nads

Red Sox fan but I agree with Rob in CT, who’s clearly better is crazy talk. They even played different roles. Have both in fantasy along with Gordon, Butler, Kinsler, Kendrick, Longoria, Hughes and Asdrubal Cabreral for $1. Love the prospects. Maybe someday I will take first place in my league. Go Red Sox.